MLB Grind Down: Saturday, October 3 - Page Two

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-10-03 21:58:20

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM EST

Toronto					Tampa Bay
			Marco Estrada					Chris Archer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TBR (-107)					7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.229	0.712	0.312	20.2%	SP vs. Left	0.236	0.651	0.292	25.40%
SP vs. Right	0.229	0.712	0.312	20.2%	SP vs. Right	0.236	0.651	0.292	25.40%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada

Estrada has been in decent form recently. Over the last month, Estrada has posted an ERA of 2.80, but the real story is his SIERA of 5.54. Some regression may be in order today against the Rays and his strikeout rate is extremely low (13.2%). He is a very risky SP2. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8,900 FD, $7,500 DK

Chris Archer

Archer just had to face this Blue Jays squad and was shelled for nine earned runs in only three innings of work. The big difference will be the ballpark as he now gets to pitch against them in Tampa Bay. The outcome should be different, and Archer is the best pitcher on the pre 6 pm slate (3.07 SIERA/29.4 K%), but he does have risk attached with his heavy salary. Rating = 7

Salaries: $12,000 FD, $10,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Archer was dominated by this Blue Jays squad last week, but this offense gets a big downgrade due to the ballpark factors here. The Blue Jays have a team total of only 3.44 against Archer and are tournament plays only.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Tampa Bay

The Rays are a pretty decent source of value today against the righty Estrada. John Jaso and Grady Sizemore should be in good spots for very cheap and both make good secondary plays.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

John Jaso
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.166

Grady Sizemore
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.155

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM EST

Cincinnati					Pittsburgh
			Brandon Finnegan					A.J. Burnett
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.682	0.299	0.232	SP vs. Left	0.269	0.716	0.314	0.223
SP vs. Right	0.217	0.682	0.299	0.232	SP vs. Right	0.269	0.716	0.314	0.223
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Brandon Finnegan

Finnegan has pitched out of the bullpen for most of the year, but has recently made three starts in a row. He has not pitched well enough that he should be trusted in daily fantasy as he has allowed five home runs and ten earned runs during those three starts. He will also not give us big upside as he has yet to pitch more than 83 pitches in a start. Avoid him against the Pirates. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5,400 FD, $4,200 DK

A.J. Burnett

Burnett has come back from injury to pitch well in his four starts. He has not pitched deep into ballgames, but does have a 3.68 ERA and 20.6% strikeout rate. He has a matchup tonight against the Reds who are in the bottom third of the league against right-handed pitching. Burnett is an SP2 tonight as he is a big favorite today, but may not pitch deep into this ballgame. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,200 FD, $8,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

While Burnett has pitched well, he has allowed a .320 wOBA to left-handed bats this year. If Votto is in the lineup, he is an elite play as he has crushed right-handed pitching this year for a wOBA of .427.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.238

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have some solid right-handed bats in their lineup that should be able to give Finnegan fits tonight. They have a team total of 4.46, putting Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Neil Walker into elite play status.

Elite Plays:

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.409— ISO: 0.186

Starling Marte
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313— ISO: 0.180

Neil Walker
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.251— ISO: 0.054

Secondary Plays:

Francisco Cervelli
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380— ISO: 0.165

Aramis Ramirez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348— ISO: 0.218

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST

NY Yankees					Baltimore
			Luis Severino					Ubaldo Jimenez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-138)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.202	0.637	0.279	0.284	SP vs. Left	0.266	0.723	0.321	0.213
SP vs. Right	0.202	0.637	0.279	0.284	SP vs. Right	0.266	0.723	0.321	0.213
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits			BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Severino

Severino has been a serviceable real-life and fantasy starter in his rookie season. After ten starts, he holds a SIERA of 4.02, while continuing to have a solid strikeout rate of 21.8%. He gets a high upside matchup against a tough Orioles squad that does strikeout at a high clip (21.8%). Severino is a great play for tournaments, but maybe a bit too risky for cash games tonight. (Check his status as if the Yankees win the early game, he may not pitch tonight). Rating = 7

Salaries: $8,500 FD, $10,000 DK

Ubaldo Jimenez

Ubaldo Jimenez has had an up and down season. He comes into this game with a 4.48 SIERA over the last month of play and his strikeout rate of 18.2% during this span has really limited his upside. With the matchup against the Yankees tonight who are ranked fifth in the league against right-handed pitching (.322 team wOBA). Ubaldo is an easy avoid. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $8,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jimenez has allowed a .309+ wOBA from both sides of the plate as well as 20 home runs over his 31 starts. This game features a high total and Ubaldo is a good pitcher to target. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are cheap for their upside and are both elite plays. (Same applies to the offense as many will get rest if they win game one)

Elite Plays:

Check lineups, but Ellsbury and Gardner are great plays if starting.

Secondary Plays:

Check Lineups

Baltimore

Severino has allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed bats this year. This puts Chris Davis into an elite play category as he has mashed righties for a .401 wOBA and .337 ISO. (Check the lineups today as they are going to rest the starters in one of these games.)

Elite Plays:

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.337

Secondary Plays:

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.225

Washington at NY Mets – 7:10 PM EST

Washington					NY Mets
			Max Scherzer					Matt Harvey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-134)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.205	0.589	0.258	0.331	SP vs. Left	0.217	0.554	0.242	0.236
SP vs. Right	0.205	0.589	0.258	0.331	SP vs. Right	0.217	0.554	0.242	0.236
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer

Scherzer has not had the best season by his standards and has really struggled with the long ball recently. Over his last ten starts, Max has allowed 14 home runs, which has been a major problem for him. With that said, he still continues to sport an elite strikeout rate of 29.7%. His upside is there, depending whether the price is worth it at this point. Rating = 8

Salaries: $11,300 FD, $13,600 DK

Matt Harvey

Harvey will start and has been pitching very well. This will likely be treated as a bit of a tune up for the playoffs and it is tough to pay the elite price for him without the assurance that he will get a complete start. He could be viewed as a tournament play, but the upside is limited. Rating = 7

Salaries: $10,100 FD, $11,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Washington

While Harvey may not see a full start, it is not worth spending any money on this Nationals team’s bats today.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

NY Mets

Scherzer has struggled at times this year, especially recently. Yet, it is still tough to pay for bats against an elite pitcher such as him. With that said, the Mets can be viewed as tournament plays due to the amount of home runs he has allowed over the last ten.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 7:10 PM EST

Detroit					Chicago White Sox
			Justin Verlander					Erik Johnson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET (-115)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.29	0.776	0.34	0.178	SP vs. Left	0.248	0.692	0.304	0.278
SP vs. Right	0.29	0.776	0.34	0.178	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.692	0.304	0.278
Batter Splits			DET vs R		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Verlander

Verlander continues to pitch well for the Tigers over the last two months or so. In his last ten starts, Verlander holds a SIERA of 3.77 and a strikeout rate of 23.5%. This has been the best stretch of the season for Verlander and now gets a great matchup against the White Sox who 25th in the league in team wOBA (.302). He is a decent SP2 tonight. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $9,200 DK

Erik Johnson

Johnson is not someone to target in any format. In his five starts this season, he has allowed seven home runs in just 28.2 innings pitched this year. He is an easy avoid against a Tigers offense that is ranked 13th in the league in team wOBA against righties. Check the lineups on Miguel Cabrera as he may sit again, but that isn’t enough to warrant playing Johnson. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7,000 FD, $7,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Johnson has allowed a wOBA of .372 to lefties and .334 to right-handed bats this year. All the Tigers are in play today as they have a team total of 4.09. Miguel Cabrera is an elite play, but again, check the lineups as the Tigers rested a lot of starters yesterday.

Elite Plays:

Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.402 — ISO: 0.180

Secondary Plays:

J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.250

Tyler Collins
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.151

Chicago White Sox

Verlander has been great recently and this White Sox squad has a team total of 3.91. Jose Abreu is the only White Sox player to look at today as he has crushed righties all season long for a wOBA of .387. He should be in the lineup, but make sure as the Sox have nothing to play for here.

Elite Plays:

Jose Abreu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.242

Secondary Plays:

None

Boston at Cleveland – 7:10 PM EST

Boston					Cleveland
			Craig Breslow					Corey Kluber
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.3	0.878	0.374	0.187	SP vs. Left	0.212	0.559	0.245	0.29
SP vs. Right	0.3	0.878	0.374	0.187	SP vs. Right	0.212	0.559	0.245	0.29
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Craig Breslow

Breslow pitched very well in his only start this year last week against the Orioles. His problem tonight is the lack of upside you are going to get out of a reliever that may be four to five innings max. Due to the pitch limit, he is not in play in any format tonight. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $4,000 FD, $4,700 DK

Corey Kluber

Kluber will look to bounce back tonight against a very tough opponent in the Red Sox. The Red Sox are ranked seventh and strike out at a very low rate of 17.7%. Kluber has not been his stellar self over the last month in ERA (4.28), but has still posted a 3.12 SIERA and 28.6% strikeout rate during that span. He is an elite pitcher with big upside, but a tough matchup tonight. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9,700 FD, $10,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Boston

While Kluber has allowed some runs recently, he is not someone to take batters against regularly. He has kept righties to a wOBA of .244 on the season. With that said, David Ortiz does make for a tournament play only tonight as Kluber has allowed two home runs in 11 at-bats to him.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.314

Cleveland

Breslow pitched very well last time out, but the Indians will likely be facing a number of relievers tonight. Take the cheap Indians that will be in the front of the order such as Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez tonight.

Elite Plays:

Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.129

Jose Ramirez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.253 — ISO: 0.099

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Raburn
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.252

Yan Gomes
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.222 — ISO: 0.073

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