MLB Grind Down: Saturday, October 3rd

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-10-04 19:08:53

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these write-ups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS MLB news.

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 12:05 PM EST

NY Yankees					Baltimore
			Ivan Nova					Wei-Yin Chen
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-138)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.794	0.345	0.201	SP vs. Left	0.268	0.786	0.339	0.191
SP vs. Right	0.244	0.794	0.345	0.201	SP vs. Right	0.268	0.786	0.339	0.191
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova

Nova has struggled over the last month of play. He has posted a 4.78 ERA during his last six starts and now has a tough matchup against the Orioles, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA (.323) against righties. He is an easy avoid in the morning slate. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $5,600 DK

Wei-Yin Chen

Chen has been a serviceable starter this year for the Orioles. He comes into this game with a SIERA of 3.92 and a decent 19.6% strikeout rate. He has a tough matchup against the Yankees who are ranked fifth in the league against lefties (.328 team wOBA). If he can keep the ball in the park, he could be an SP2. Rating = 5.5*

Salaries: $8,300 FD, $9,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have some lefty smashers in their lineup and Chen does sport a HR/9 of 1.36. They have a team total of 4.06. Alex Rodriguez is a solid elite play, while Chris Young, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are all secondary plays.

Elite Plays:

Chris Young
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.240

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.278

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.072

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.127

Baltimore

Nova has really struggled recently and has allowed a wOBA of .384 to lefties this year. Chris Davis is a very high upside play this afternoon as he has mashed right-handed pitching for a wOBA of .401 on the year.

Elite Plays:

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.337

Gerardo Parra
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.263 — ISO: 0.134

Secondary Plays:

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.225

Kansas City at Minnesota – 1:05 PM EST

Kansas City					Minnesota
			Yordano Ventura					Tommy Milone
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (-115)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.246	0.687	0.307	20.7%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.776	0.337	15.50%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.687	0.307	20.7%	SP vs. Right	0.270	0.776	0.337	15.50%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs L		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Yordano Ventura

Ventura has been a serviceable pitcher this year. Recently he has been in great form as he holds a SIERA 3.13 of and a strikeout rate of 26.3% over the last month. He has a decent matchup against the Twins who are much less potent against right-handed pitching (.301 team wOBA). He makes a decent play in a small early slate. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8,800 FD, $8,600 DK

Tommy Milone

Milone had a decent stretch at one point of the year, but recently he has struggled. Over the last month he has a SIERA of 4.34 and has not pitched deep into games over that span. He has a tough matchup against the Royals who continue to strikeout at a league low 15.1%. With the added games, look other places for a pitcher. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Milone has allowed .335 to right-handed batters this year. This puts Lorenzo Cain and Ben Zobrist into elite status and Alcides Escobar a good value if he is in the leadoff spot.

Elite Plays:

Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.224

Ben Zobrist
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.242

Secondary Plays:

Alcides Escobar
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.070

Minnesota

Ventura has been on his game lately and the Twins feature a team total of 3.91. Miguel Sano is always in play in tournaments, but is only viewed as an upside play today.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Sano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.287

LA Angels at Texas – 1:05 PM EST

LA Angels					Texas
			Hector Santiago					Colby Lewis
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.234	0.742	0.324	20.7%	SP vs. Left	0.265	0.765	0.330	19.90%
SP vs. Right	0.234	0.742	0.324	20.7%	SP vs. Right	0.265	0.765	0.330	19.90%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Santiago

Santiago has hit a bit of a rough patch. He has allowed a SIERA of 6.37 over the last month and a strikeouts hit a well below average rate of 15.3% during that span. He now has to take his game into hitter friendly Texas. He is an easy avoid today. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7,600 FD, $6,600 DK

Colby Lewis

Colby Lewis is always a pitcher we can look to target in all formats. He has a 4.45 SIERA on the season and a below average K% of 16.4%. Lewis pitching anywhere is a tough play, and is an easy avoid in Globe Life today. Rating = 4

Salaries: $8,000 FD, $7,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Lewis has allowed a wOBA of .308+ from both sides of the plate this year. Mike Trout is a clear elite play as he has had great success against Lewis (11/28, with 4 home runs), while Kole Calhoun, Erick Aybar and Albert Pujols are all in play as they have the second highest team total of the day (4.63).

Elite Plays:

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.288

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.169

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.231

Erick Aybar
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.072

Texas

Santiago has been really struggling recently and this Rangers squad has the highest team total of the day at 4.87. They are a great offense to target in the early slate and the righties should be on the radar in all formats.

Elite Plays:

Adrian Beltre
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.238

Delino Deshields
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.123

Mike Napoli
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.503 — ISO: 0.327

Secondary Plays:

Elvis Andrus
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.134

Shin-Soo Choo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.140

Washington at NY Mets – 1:10 PM EST

Washington					NY Mets
			Gio Gonzalez					Noah Syndergaard
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-134)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.251	0.699	0.309	0.238	SP vs. Left	0.217	0.624	0.271	0.317
SP vs. Right	0.251	0.699	0.309	0.238	SP vs. Right	0.217	0.624	0.271	0.317
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez

Gio has pitched well for the Nationals over the last few weeks. However, he gets a matchup this afternoon against Syndergaard and a Mets squad still battling. He does have double-digit strikeout potential, but is a tournament play only as a huge underdog today. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9,300 FD, $9,300 DK

Noah Syndergaard

Syndergaard has been solid recently as he has posted a 2.25 SIERA and a 31.2% strikeout rate over the last month. He is a big favorite today against the Nationals and should get a solid start today. He is the top play of the day slate. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $10,400 FD, $12,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Syndergaard has kept batters to a wOBA under .294 from both sides of the plate. The Nationals have the lowest team total on the slate at 2.96. Avoid the bats.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

NY Mets

Gio has been solid recently and this Mets squad has a team total of only 3.54. David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes (Check lineup) are secondary plays only.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

David Wright
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.454 — ISO: 0.257

Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.327

Colorado at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST

Colorado					San Francisco
			Chris Rusin					Jake Peavy
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-170)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.319	0.881	0.378	14.2%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.716	0.314	18.40%
SP vs. Right	0.319	0.881	0.378	14.2%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.716	0.314	18.40%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Rusin

Rusin is another pitcher that is easy to avoid on the early slate. He has a 4.34 SIERA on the season and a terribly low strikeout percentage (14.4%). The Giants are a tough team against right-handed pitching (ranked sixth with a team wOBA of .321), making Rusin another pitcher to avoid. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $4,900 FD, $4,400 DK

Jake Peavy

Peavy has not been bad recently. Over his last four starts, he has allowed only four earned runs in 26 innings pitched. Over the last month, he has a SIERA of 4.18 with a slightly below average strikeout rate of 17.9%. With the lack of options on the early slate, Peavy is in play, but with risk attached. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $8,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Peavy has kept batters from the left side of the plate to a wOBA of .282 on the season. This keeps the Rockies out of elite play consideration, but Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are secondary plays on the slate.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.415— ISO: 0.333

Charlie Blackmon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.179

San Francisco

Rusin has allowed a .360 wOBA to lefties and a .370 wOBA to righties. All the Giants bats are in play today against the lefty, but Buster Posey is the top catcher on the slate.

Elite Plays:

Buster Posey
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366— ISO: 0.182

Matt Duffy
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.286— ISO: 0.097

Secondary Plays:

Marlon Byrd
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.299— ISO: 0.182

Kelby Tomlinson

Miami at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM EST

Miami					Philadelphia
			Tom Koehler					Aaron Harang
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA (-115)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.733	0.323	17.1%	SP vs. Left	0.260	0.738	0.322	19.20%
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.733	0.323	17.1%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.738	0.322	19.20%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tom Koehler

Koehler is an average major league pitcher as well as an average fantasy play. He comes into this game with a 4.66 SIERA and below average strikeout rate (17%). He is an easy avoid even with the decent matchup against the Phillies tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7,400 FD, $7,400 DK

Aaron Harang

Old man Harang gets one last start this year and he has been a great pitcher to attack in terms of offense against. He has allowed 13 home runs over his last ten starts this year and has a low strikeout rate of 14.7%. Avoid him today. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5,200 FD, $5,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Harang has been bad this year and has really struggled against lefties. He has allowed a wOBA of .356 to left-handed batters, putting Dee Gordon, Justin Bour and Christian Yelich into play.

Elite Plays:

Justin Bour
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.250

Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.072

Secondary Plays:

Christian Yelich
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.131

Philadelphia

This Phillies offense recently has hit some pitchers with much a higher skill set than Koehler, very well. They have a team total of 4.15 today and have some nice value plays against Koehler who has allowed a .323 wOBA to lefties.

Elite Plays:

Odubel Herrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331— ISO: 0.131

Secondary Plays:

Freddy Galvis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.103

Jump to Page 1 2 3