MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 28th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Texas at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Texas | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Chi Chi Gonzalez |  | Drew Hutchison | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-181) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.768 | 0.336 | 21.50% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.709 | 0.313 | 23.50% | ||||
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | TOR vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chi Chi Gonzalez – After four consecutive terrific starts to begin the 2015 season, the wheels finally fell off for Gonzalez in his last start as Oakland hung six earned runs on him in 5.1 innings of work and handed him his second loss of the season. While he’ll still enter today’s start against Toronto sporting an impressive 2.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 35.2 innings, his .209 BABIP and 5.39 SIERA both suggest that his last start may not be a simple outlier. Gonzalez’s 2.78 K/9 is atrocious by fantasy standards and the matchup against a Blue Jays team that owns MLB’s highest team wOBA (.341) makes him an easy pitcher to avoid today. Rating = 3
Drew Hutchison – Not often do you see a guy with a 5.33 ERA sporting a 7-1 record, but such is the life for Hutchison with this Blue Jays lineup having his back. Hutchison may have the most drastic home vs. road splits among all starting pitchers this season, but luckily for him, today’s game is at the Rogers Center where he owns a 5-1 record and 2.38 ERA in seven starts this season. Hutchison tossed an absolute gem in his only meeting with the Rangers last season, picking up a complete game shutout while allowing just three hits and racking up six strikeouts. His 3.85 SIERA is promising and 7.95 K/9 makes him a nice GPP target. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Prince Fielder – (LHB) – Fielder picked up two more hits in yesterday’s game and now owns four straight multi-hit games. He owns a .349 average and .954 OPS on the season and has destroyed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .437 wOBA and 180 wRC+.
2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.437 wOBA: 0.188 ISO: 180 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Beltre – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.28 wOBA: 0.113 ISO: 71 wRC+
Joey Gallo – (LHP) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.396 wOBA: 0.273 ISO: 151 wRC+
Toronto
Edwin Encarnacion – (RHB) – Edwin has a reputation for going prolonged heaters, and it looks like he’s got one going right now. Edwin owns a .333 average and 1.016 OPS during the month of June and has smacked three home runs during his current four-game hitting streak.
2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.349 wOBA: 0.25 ISO: 121 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Jose Bautista – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.383 wOBA: 0.273 ISO: 145 wRC+
Jose Reyes – (Switch) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.323 wOBA: 0.126 ISO: 103 wRC+
Josh Donaldson – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.362 wOBA: 0.212 ISO: 130 wRC+
Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST
| Chicago White Sox | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Jeff Samardzija |  | David Price | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-168) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.718 | 0.314 | 22.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.655 | 0.291 | 22.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.667 | 0.293 | 21.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.641 | 0.281 | 26.50% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CWS vs L | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija was blasted in back-to-back starts to open the month of June, but has bounced back nicely since and posted his third straight quality start against the Twins on Tuesday. Samardzija has completed seven innings and racked up seven strikeouts in each of those last three games and is certainly a much better pitcher than his current 4.53 ERA would indicate (3.69 SIERA). However, he has really struggled on the road this season (5.34 ERA in nine starts) and this Detroit team not only owns a .330 team wOBA at Comerica Park, but also knocked Samardzija around for six earned runs in their last meeting. Samardzija is a fine GPP target here, but a bit too risky for my liking for cash game use. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8,700 FD, $8,400 DK
David Price – Price will toe the rubber for the third time this season against the White Sox and that makes him one of my favorite fantasy options of the day. Not only has he mowed down this Chicago lineup in both prior meetings this season, but the White Sox also own MLB’s worst (by far) team wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2015. Price has been brilliant lately, posting a 4-1 record with a sparkling 1.41 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.35 K/9 over his last seven starts. That matchup is ideal and he’s a top-notch option in all formats. Rating = 9
Salaries: $10,800 FD, $11,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Jose Abreu – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.334 wOBA: 0.17 ISO: 110 wRC+
Detroit
Anthony Gose – (RHB) – He’s not the obvious “elite play” here, but with lefties owning a .361 wOBA off of Samardzija and Gose likely manning the leadoff spot for this dangerous Tigers lineup, he’s a great value option today. He owns a solid .311 wOBA against right-handed pitching and can rack up stolen bases and runs scored in a hurry once on board.
2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.31 wOBA: 0.097 ISO: 95 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Miguel Cabrera – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.437 wOBA: 0.23 ISO: 183 wRC+
J.D. Martinez – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.385 wOBA: 0.286 ISO: 147 wRC+
LA Dodgers at Miami – 1:10 PM EST
| LA Dodgers | Miami | ||||||||
 | Zack Greinke |  | Jose Urena | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-190) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.616 | 0.274 | 23.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.746 | 0.332 | 5.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.633 | 0.279 | 25.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.312 | 0.782 | 0.343 | 13.30% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Zack Greinke – After another scoreless outing on Tuesday, Greinke will head to South Florida owning a miniscule 1.70 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 15 starts this season. With that said, Greinke’s 7.87 K/9 and 3.32 xFIP are both actually worse than what he posted last season, so it feels like at least a small regression is imminent. Greinke was able to mow down this Marlins lineup in their only previous meeting this season and the Marlins own just a .292 team wOBA (26th in MLB) against right-handed pitching. Rating = 8
Salaries: $10,500 FD, $10,300 DK
Jose Urena – Urena mowed down AAA hitters to open the 2015 season, and has carried some of that success over to the beginning of his MLB career. He struggled a bit in his first career start but owns a solid 3.03 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over his last five starts. However, Urena has as many walks as he does strikeouts this season and the Dodgers own MLB’s highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The poor matchup and his 4.75 xFIP and measly 3.62 K/9 make him an easy pitcher to avoid on today’s slate. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5,100 FD, $4,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Justin Turner – (RHB) – Turner flies under the radar and continues to be well underpriced across the industry. He owns the second highest wOBA in MLB over the past calendar year (among players with 300+ at bats) and is hitting .369 with a 1.128 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.48 wOBA: 0.333 ISO: 215 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Gonzalez – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.398 wOBA: 0.239 ISO: 159 wRC+
Joc Pederson – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.403 wOBA: 0.308 ISO: 163 wRC+
Miami
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Dee Gordon – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.337 wOBA: 0.067 ISO: 113 wRC+
Boston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM EST
| Boston | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Justin Masterson |  | Chris Archer | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-174) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.308 | 0.908 | 0.397 | 14.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.593 | 0.268 | 23.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.337 | 23.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.628 | 0.283 | 24.90% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Justin Masterson – John Farrell looks to have finally had enough with Joe Kelly and instead will hand the ball to Justin Masterson this afternoon in Tampa. While Kelly’s struggles may have made the change necessary, it’s not like Masterson is a likely solution to the Red Sox pitching woes. The veteran right-hander hasn’t pitched since May 12th and owns an ugly 6.37 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through 35.1 innings of work this season. The Rays scored four runs and put 13 runners on base in just 4.1 innings against Masterson earlier this season and after posting a 5.88 ERA in 2015, there’s just no reason to trust him in your fantasy lineups. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6,500 FD, $4,900 DK
Chris Archer – In his last start, a very tough matchup against the dangerous Toronto Blue Jays, Archer was brilliant once again as he allowed just one earned run on three hits over eight innings of work. He picked up his ninth win of the season and now boasts an impressive 2.10 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 10.71 K/9 through his first 16 starts of the 2015 season. Archer was the tough-luck loser in his only meeting with the Red Sox this season, but didn’t allow an earned run in that start and racked nine strikeouts in 5.2 innings. Archer’s 2.54 SIERA is the 4th best among qualified pitchers this season (behind only Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer) and the Red Sox own just a .297 team wOBA away from Fenway Park. He’s a rock solid option in all formats. Rating = 8
Salaries: $10,600 FD, $10,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Boston
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Brock Holt – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.366 wOBA: 0.153 ISO: 132 wRC+
David Ortiz – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.386 wOBA: 0.241 ISO: 146 wRC+
Tampa Bay
Logan Forsythe – (RHB) – Forsythe leads this Rays team with a .382 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He’ll enter today’s game riding a nine game hitting streak and is hitting .500 with a 1.275 OPS over the last seven days.
2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.36 wOBA: 0.1 ISO: 137 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Joey Butler – (RHP) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.364 wOBA: 0.155 ISO: 140 wRC+
Washington at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM EST
| Washington | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Stephen Strasburg |  | Kevin Correia | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-170) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.685 | 0.302 | 0.229 | SP vs. Left | 0.306 | 0.861 | 0.374 | 0.094 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.727 | 0.318 | 0.295 | SP vs. Right | 0.291 | 0 | 0.342 | 0.145 |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Stephen Strasburg – I’ve been burned by Strasburg several times already this season, but after a promising start in his return to the Nationals rotation on Tuesday and with a matchup against a rather feeble Phillies lineup on tap, I might be going back to this well once again. Despite an ugly 5.90 ERA and 1.65 WHIP thus far in 2015, Strasburg’s 3.57 xFIP and pedigree both lead me to believe that he’ll get things turned around sooner rather than later. The Phillies own the league’s worst team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and while he’s had mixed results against them in their two meetings this season, he absolutely dominated them in five starts last season. He’s still tough to trust in cash games, but the potential payoff outweighs the risk here. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8,400 FD, $9,300 DK
Kevin Correia – If you’re contemplating rolling with Correia, please find my games in the lobby! The Yankees hung five runs on him in his last start before chasing him from the game after just four innings of work and the veteran right-hander posted an uninspiring 4.59 FIP in six starts at the AAA level prior to his recent promotion back to the big leagues. He offers very little strikeout potential and will face a dangerous Washington Nationals lineup. I’ll be staying far away. Rating = 2
Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper – (LHB) – Make sure he’s back in the lineup but if he is…. He’s well worth that big-ticket asking price. Harper owns a ridiculous .500 wOBA off of right-handed pitching and has already racked up 24 home runs this season.
2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.5 wOBA: 0.415 ISO: 225 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Ian Desmond – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.268 wOBA: 0.126 ISO: 67 wRC+
Philadelphia
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Maikel Franco – (RHP) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.377 wOBA: 0.238 ISO: 141 wRC+