MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, October 20th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Kansas City at Toronto – 4:07 PM EST
| Kansas City | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Chris Young |  | R.A. Dickey | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-154) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.779 | 0.341 | 14.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.673 | 0.297 | 14.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.177 | 0.592 | 0.259 | 18.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.736 | 0.321 | 18.50% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Young : FD: $6,300 — DK: $7,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 282.0 — SIERA: 5.24 — ERA: 3.45 — K%: 16.0% — BB%: 8.7% — HR/9: 1.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 12.2 — SIERA: 7.20 — ERA: 2.84 — K%: 14.3% — BB%: 12.2% — HR/9: 1.4
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.367 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: The Royals will turn to Chris Young in Game 4 of this series, opting to use him over Kris Medlen. Young has made one relief appearance this postseason, giving up a single run over four innings of work. Young is hittable pitcher that owns a 5.24 SIERA over the last two seasons. He is a large underdog against the Blue Jays, who were ranked first in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching during the regular season. It would be surprising to see Young last more than four or five innings today, especially considering the fact that this game is being played in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Young is by far the lowest rated pitcher in Tuesday’s slate of games.
Pitcher Rating: 40.1
R.A. Dickey : FD: $7,900 — DK: $8,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 430.0 — SIERA: 4.42 — ERA: 3.81 — K%: 16.6% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 40.2 — SIERA: 4.40 — ERA: 2.43 — K%: 13.2% — BB%: 2.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Dickey pitched fairly well in his first postseason start, giving up a single run in four and two-third innings against the Rangers in Arlington. The biggest issue here is his strikeout potential. Dickey had one of the lowest strikeout rates (14.3%) in his career this season and he is facing a Royals’ offense that had the lowest strikeout rate of any team in baseball this season. To make matters worse, he has to face them at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. This game is expected to be a shootout and both pitchers can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 60.8
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals have the second-highest team total on the board today, as they square off against R.A. Dickey. The Royals put up 8 runs in Toronto last night and should have success offensively again today. Dickey hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate and he has actually given up a higher wOBA to right-handed hitters. With all of the value in this lineup (especially on FanDuel), load up on the Royals.
Elite Plays:
Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 835 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 80
Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 782 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 101
Salvador Perez : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 834 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 100
Last 30 Days: PA: 95 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 103
Alcides Escobar : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 921 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.069 — wRC+: 74
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 46
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 629 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 96 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 159
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,700 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 759 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 92
Mike Moustakas : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 769 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 149
Alex Gordon : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 723 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.155 — wRC+: 120
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.110 — wRC+: 86
Toronto
I believe this is the first time in the history of the Grind Down where I have listed every hitter in the lineup as either an elite play or a secondary play. We are making history folks! The Blue Jays have the highest team total on the board, as they square off against Chris Young at home. Young has decent splits against right-handed hitters, but his peripheral statistics are not impressive. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that the Blue Jays will look to tee off against in the home run friendly Rogers Centre.
Elite Plays:
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1080 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 131
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 138
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1061 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.266 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.359 — wRC+: 191
Chris Colabello : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 398 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 123
Last 30 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 126
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 897 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.066 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 111
Secondary Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 928 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.288 — wRC+: 151
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 189
Troy Tulowitzki : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 694 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 88
Russell Martin : FD: $3,200 — DK: $5,600
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 753 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 74 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.344 — wRC+: 132
Kevin Pillar : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 537 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 92
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 156
Ryan Goins : FD: $2,300 — DK: $2,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 477 — wOBA: 0.284 — ISO: 0.098 — wRC+: 76
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.292 — ISO: 0.089 — wRC+: 81
NY Mets at Chicago Cubs – 8:07 PM EST
| NY Mets | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Jacob Degrom |  | Kyle Hendricks | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-125) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.655 | 0.289 | 25.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.730 | 0.317 | 18.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.198 | 0.532 | 0.235 | 27.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.596 | 0.265 | 21.50% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jacob deGrom : FD: $10,600 — DK: $11,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 327.1 — SIERA: 3.10 — ERA: 2.64 — K%: 26.3% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.0 — SIERA: 2.68 — ERA: 4.50 — K%: 27.3% — BB%: 2.0% — HR/9: 0.4
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: DeGrom has been absolutely terrific in the postseason. He dominated the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS and then he pitched around a lot of trouble to lead the Mets to a win in Game 5. DeGrom draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Cubs, who had the highest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching. The issue here is twofold: he will be pitching on the road in front of a raucous Chicago crowd and his command was off in his last start. If he is unable to locate his pitches, that could lead to a lot of walks against a Cubs’ team that averaged the most pitches per plate appearance this season. DeGrom is easily the top pitching option in this slate, but he doesn’t come without a red flag or two. A deGrom fade could really pay off in tournaments.
Pitcher Rating: 93.9
Kyle Hendricks : FD: $7,700 — DK: $8,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 254.1 — SIERA: 3.63 — ERA: 3.57 — K%: 19.8% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.2 — SIERA: 2.61 — ERA: 3.71 — K%: 30.1% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.0
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Hendricks gave up three runs in four and two-third innings against the Cardinals in Game 2 of the NLDS. He recovered after a bad start and ended up striking out seven batters in a no-decision. The biggest issue here is that the Cubs are down 2-0 in this series. They will be quick to pull the plug on Hendricks if he struggles early, which really limits his fantasy appeal. Even though I’m not a huge fan of Hendricks tonight, he is still the second highest-rated pitcher in this slate of games. It’s hard to trust either starting pitcher in the Royals/Blue Jays game, making Hendricks the clear number two pitching option.
Pitcher Rating: 65.5
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets draw a favorable matchup against Kyle Hendricks in the hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. Since the start of the 2014 season, Hendricks has allowed a .317 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Daniel Murphy is becoming close to a must play, after he has hit a home run in four straight postseason games. However, since the Blue Jays game has such a high total, he is the only elite play here. Curtis Granderson, David Wright, and Michael Conforto are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
Daniel Murphy : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 880 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.264 — wRC+: 131
Secondary Plays:
Curtis Granderson : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1009 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 155
David Wright : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 582 — wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.099 — wRC+: 91
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 141
Michael Conforto : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 174 — wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 148
Last 30 Days: PA: 82 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 109
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs find themselves in an 0-2 hole, after scoring a single run in their first two games of this series. Their offense is going to need to pull their weight the rest of the way if they want to have any chance of advancing to the World Series. They draw a difficult matchup against Jacob deGrom tonight, but that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid this offense altogether. Dexter Fowler is a borderline elite play on FanDuel ($2,800), while the rest of the Cubs’ bats are secondary options.
Elite Plays:
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 909 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 89
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 935 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.254 — wRC+: 147
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 110
Kris Bryant : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 492 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.219 — wRC+: 142
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 139
Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 205 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.287 — wRC+: 162
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 92