MLB Predictions and Betting Picks — Friday, May 14th
Take the mound with Sloan Piva as he breaks down his predictions and MLB betting tips for Friday, May 14, with lines from our favorite online sportsbooks. For more baseball betting picks, visit ScoresAndOdds!
What a week! I received the trophy for winning my dynasty fantasy basketball league—thank you Nikola Vucevic! I got my second COVID-19 vaccination—fully Pfized and ready to socialize! My recreational volleyball team moved into first place in our league—‘Just the Tip’ for the win—(yes, you read right—my volleyball team’s name is Just the Tip). And, topping it all off, my Bets of the Day went 3-1 Tuesday, and my Moneyline of the Day also crushed it.
If not for the Dodgers-Mariners game randomly ending up a 10-6 barn-burner (I had UNDER 7.5 runs), I would have hit on the Spread Parlay of the Day, too. Still, we are ecstatic to have gone 4-2 on individual bets, and 3-1 on Bets of the Day. If you’re keeping score at home, that brings our season-long Bets of the Day record to 27-12.
Let’s do our best to continue the winning ways, and flex on a full Friday slate. The Royals and White Sox kick off their doubleheader at 3:10 eastern, followed by 15 other scheduled games in the evening. Sounds like the start of a great end to an already-awesome week.
All MLB odds for this article are from BetMGM and PointsBet. All stats via MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Pitching Matchup: Lucas Giolito vs. Brad Keller
MLB Pick: White Sox -1.5
As of my article submission Friday morning, the odds have not yet been posted for this game on PointsBet and BetMGM. However, I would bet the White Sox on the Moneyline up to -200, and would bet them on the run line -1.5 up to -115. Simply put, these are two different teams moving in two opposite directions.
The Royals have dropped 11 games in a row, with their last win coming on May 1. To add insult to injury, they were just swept by the lowly Detroit Tigers. Meanwhile, the White Sox have won six games in a row, and their only loss since May 4 was a 1-0 loss to the Reds.
Chicago and Kansas City last met for a three-game series last weekend. The ChiSox effortlessly disposed of KC, putting up 21 runs to the Royals’ four in a convincing series sweep. Both of today’s scheduled starting pitchers started games in that series.
Keller started last Friday, and cruised through 4.1 innings of no-hit baseball. But then, as has been the case for Keller all season, the wheels came off. He gave up all three of Chicago’s runs in the fifth and sixth, allowing five hits in his last 1.2 innings. Through seven starts, the burly right-hander has a whopping 7.31 ERA and 1.906 WHIP. He has allowed hard contact on 45.6 percent of his pitches, and yielded an average exit velocity of 90.5 miles per hour.
Giolito, meanwhile, closed out last weekend’s series with a win for the south-siders on Sunday. The 26-year-old ace started a bit slow this season, with his ERA reaching 5.79 in mid-April and his win-loss record reaching 1-3 by early May. But he has looked truer to form his past two outings, both of which saw him surrender just one run in five-plus frames. In 14 career starts against Kansas City, Giolito owns an 8-2 record with a 2.81 ERA and 0.927 WHIP.
The White Sox have been bit hard by the injury bug, but they just keep chugging along. Their recent success is thanks in large part to 2020 MVP first baseman Jose Abreu, as well as 2020 Silver Slugger-winning shortstop Tim Anderson. The Sox rank second in the majors with a .258 average and .346 OBP, fourth with 90 RBIs, and fifth with 96 runs. Only the Twins and Red Sox have a better OPS than Chicago’s .746 team mark.
If you can find some odds for this game, and they yield fairly decent value for the ChiSox, I’d back them with confidence. No team has been hotter at the plate as of late, and Giolito looks more like himself after shaking the early-season rust off.
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs. Tyler Anderson
MLB Pick: Giants -150 (BetMGM/PointsBet)
What a great year it has been for pitchers, and what a truly horrid year it has been for hitters. The MLB league-wide batting average is a paltry .234! Blame it on ditching the universal DH, deadening the ball, or some other conspiratorial reason. But pitchers are dominating the league right now, and hitters are flat-out stinking.
Perhaps no matchup exemplifies this truism more than this one. Veteran starter Kevin Gausman, 13 games under .500 in his nine-year career (53-66) with a 4.16 ERA and 1.309 WHIP lifetime, has been stunning this season. He is 3-0, with a 1.97 ERA and 0.876 WHIP, and he’s completed at least six frames in all seven of his starts.
The Pirates, meanwhile, have stunk at the plate. They rank in the bottom four in the MLB in average (.214), OBP (.282), slugging (.340), and OPS (.622). They are in the bottom ten of the majors in runs (65), home runs (17), and RBI (63).
Tyler Anderson has been one of the lone bright spots for this Pirates club (along with fellow rotation member JT Brubaker). Anderson has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past five starts for Pittsburgh. But the Pirates have only put up 19 runs in Anderson’s seven starts—which equals out to 2.7 runs per game—and thus the veteran lefty has just three wins on the year.
I’m betting he won’t net his fourth win today. San Fran has won three games in a row, and five of its last six. The Giants have momentum on their side, as well as a hot-throwing pitcher and a bottom-of-the-barrel opponent.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Pitching Matchup: Wade Miley vs. German Marquez
MLB Picks: Reds -110 (BetMGM, PointsBet)
Miss me with the tired narrative about Coors Field yielding one of the best home-advantages in Major League Baseball. Sure, the Rockies have 85 percent of their wins this season at home. But that’s because they have just 13 wins, and they are 11-10 at Coors! Just because they stink far less at home than they do on the road (2-14), doesn’t mean they don’t still stink at home.
In fairness, Colorado has won two games in a row. But the Rockies lost five consecutive games before that. In that seven-day span, they hit just two home runs (tied for second-least in the MLB). Their slugging percentage in the past week is just .318 (sixth-lowest), and their OPS in that span is .634 (eighth-lowest).
Making matters worse for the Mile High club, Wade Miley gets the start for Cincinnati. Like the aforementioned Gausman, the veteran Miley has put up career-best numbers almost across the board this season. He is 4-2 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.750 WHIP, and opponents are slashing just .147/.197/.256 against him. The Indians batted .000 against him last Friday, as he became the fourth pitcher to throw a no-hitter this season (fifth if you count “(player-popup #madison-bumgarner)Madison Bumgarner”:/players/madison-bumgarner-10932’s seven-inning no-hitter, which I do). Like I said, it’s been a wild year for pitching.
German Marquez, on the other hand, has been the bad kind of wild. The six-year righthander is 1-4 on the season, with a 5.49 ERA and 1.653 WHIP. He leads the National League in losses and earned runs (24). Cincy may not be mashing like the start of the season, but it has plenty of reason to be optimistic against Marquez at Coors Field.
The Rockies lead the majors in losses, and Marquez leads the NL in losses and runs allowed. Miley is coming off a no-no. Don’t overthink this one—just accept the gift from oddsmakers.
Moneyline Parlay of the Day
San Francisco Giants (-140) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Kevin Gausman vs. Tyler Anderson) – Gausman has been superb this season, and the Pirates have been truly abysmal at the plate. I’m all over the Giants today.
New York Yankees (-191) at Baltimore Orioles (Corey Kluber vs. Dean Kremer) – You had me at Corey Kluber vs. Dean Kremer. Kluber: 2-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.387 WHIP. Kremer: 0-3, 6.23 ERA, 1.538 WHIP.
Chicago Cubs (-140) at Detroit Tigers (Jake Arrieta vs. Tarik Skubal) – Wipe out Arrieta’s seven hit, seven run implosion at Cincy last week, and he’s allowed just eight runs in five starts this season. Skubal, meanwhile, has been heinous all year. The second-year lefty has no wins and an MLB-leading five losses, to go with a 5.67 ERA and 1.593 WHIP. He has surrendered 10 homers in 27 innings.
Cincinnati Reds (-110) at Colorado Rockies (Wade Miley vs. German Marquez) – Like I said, Coors Field doesn’t scare me, nor should it scare you. However, facing the Reds at Coors Field should scare Marquez.
Total Parlay Odds: +748
Bet: $75 |To Win: $561 |Total Payout: $636
Spread Parlay of the Day
San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+120) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Kevin Gausman vs. Tyler Anderson) – I like the Giants on the run line much less than I like their moneyline, but I’ll still bite. Anderson is 1-3 in seven career games against San Fran, with an underwhelming 4.07 ERA.
*Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+145) at Colorado Rockies (Wade Miley vs. German Marquez) – I’m tripling down on Cincy here. Miley is riding high, and the Reds should be able to tee off on Marquez at Coors Field.
Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-150) vs. Cleveland Indians (Chris Flexen vs. Aaron Civale) – Flexen (3-1, 3.78 ERA, 23/7 SO/BB) has been somewhat underrated this season. Civale (5-0, 2.78 ERA, 33/14 SO/BB) has been very good, but seems due for a loss. The Tribe has scored 51 runs in games Civale has started (7.28 per game). Mariners opponents have scored four or fewer runs in five of the six games Flexen has started.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+105) vs. Miami Marlins (Clayton Kershaw vs. Sandy Alcantara) – I love Alcantara (1-2, 2.72 ERA, 1.007 WHIP, 48/14 SO/BB), but his team rarely provides him with the run support he needs to lock down wins. Give me the reigning-champion Dodgers with their ace at home.
Total Parlay Odds: +1745
Bet: $40 |To Win: $698 |Total Payout: $738
MLB Odds for Friday
Image Credit: Imagn