NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 15th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Los Angeles Clippers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Clippers | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jawun Evans | C.J. Williams | Wesley Johnson | Jamil Wilson | DeAndre Jordan | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 12 | DvP | 8 | 30 | 22 | 15 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 17 | 6 | 15 | 14 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers have been bitten by the injury bug as often as anyone this season. They lost Patrick Beverley for the year, they’ve been without Blake Griffin for quite some time, and will have to play tonight’s game without Milos Teodosic, Austin Rivers, and Danilo Gallinari. The fact that they are only 9-point underdogs on the road is impressive. We shouldn’t put a ton of stock into the low implied total for the Clippers, seeing as how they are missing five of their best players. This ragged bunch is projected to score 100 points and that production is going to come from somewhere.
While this game does have some blowout concerns, I love the opportunity for a number of players in this lineup. We will start with Jawun Evans, who played a season-high 25 minutes the other night against the Magic. With Rivers out, he should draw a start at point guard and could push for 30 minutes. The key statistic that I’m looking at with Evans is his 0.73 FP/min this season. That’s higher than you would expect from a third-string point guard. He’s close to an auto-play for me tonight on DraftKings ($3,000) and is viable on FanDuel as well.
Lou Williams may or may not start, but should end up playing 35+ minutes either way. He is averaging 42 fantasy points over his last four games and has the highest usage of anyone on the Clippers by far. Williams is extremely expensive on FanDuel, but one of my favorite plays on DraftKings ($7,600). C.J. Williams, Wesley Johnson, and Jamil Wilson are all listed as projected starters, but none of them are projected to play enough minutes to warrant consideration. Sam Dekker will likely see close to 30 minutes and he has posted back-to-back 20+ fantasy point outings.
My three favorite targets from the Clippers are Evans, Williams, and Dekker. The one player that I am torn on is DeAndre Jordan. He has been in tremendous form, averaging 45 fantasy points over his last four games. He has been a monster on the glass and as a team, the Wizards are ranked 20th in rebounding differential. The main drawback to Jordan is the opportunity cost. Center is a loaded position tonight, which leaves Jordan right outside of that elite play territory.
Notable Injuries
Milos Teodosic (Out)
Austin Rivers (Out)
Danilo Gallinari (Out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (18 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -5.0 (20 of 22)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jawun Evans | $4,000 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 13.6 | 3.6 | 0.73 | 17.7% | 4 | 12 | 11 |
| C.J. Williams | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.59 | 11.7% | 12 | 6 | 19 |
| Wesley Johnson | $4,200 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 18.6 | -1.4 | 25.1 | -2.8 | 0.74 | 11.9% | 15 | 24 | 1 |
| Jamil Wilson | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 7.5 | -0.1 | 13.6 | 1.3 | 0.55 | 12.0% | 21 | 1 | 11 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $8,500 | $7,400 | $13,900 | 33.8 | 11.8 | 32.7 | 1.6 | 1.03 | 10.9% | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Lou Williams | $8,800 | $7,600 | $13,800 | 31.0 | 11.0 | 30.6 | 4.9 | 1.01 | 26.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jawun Evans, Sam Dekker, Lou Williams (DK)
Secondary Plays – Lou Williams (FD), DeAndre Jordan
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are happy to have John Wall back in their lineup. He played 27 minutes on Wednesday and will likely see a few more tonight. They draw an exploitable matchup against the Clippers, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wizards have an implied total of 109 points, which is the fifth highest on the board and 3.4 points above their season average.
In an 11-game slate, I don’t want to pay full price for Wall in a game where his minutes could be limited. After missing a couple of weeks, the Wizards will be careful with their franchise player. Bradley Beal has made a lot of enemies in the DFS community recently, but stands out as an intriguing tournament play on DraftKings ($7,200). Wall’s minutes will likely be monitored, the Clippers have been awful against shooting guards, and Beal is averaging 39 fantasy points over his last four games.
Otto Porter has been quiet recently and feels a bit overpriced given his production. Markieff Morris is constantly injured and rarely sees a full complement of minutes. The only other Wizards’ player on my radar here is Marcin Gortat. We’ve had a rocky relationship this season, but it’s not all his fault. His minutes are far too volatile. However, Ian Mahinmi is questionable once against and the Wizards will need Gortat’s size tonight against DeAndre Jordan. If Mahinmi is out, Gortat becomes one of the top point-per-dollar targets at center on FanDuel ($4,500).
Notable Injuries
Ian Mahinmi (Questionable)
Markieff Morris (Probable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (5 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (5 of 22)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,100 | $8,000 | $15,300 | 40.8 | -13.6 | 34.0 | -6.4 | 1.20 | 28.9% | 13 | 8 | 21 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,100 | $7,200 | $13,800 | 35.9 | 3.1 | 35.1 | 2.2 | 1.02 | 27.2% | 25 | 30 | 17 |
| Otto Porter | $7,000 | $6,500 | 32.1 | -0.9 | 32.5 | 0.0 | 0.99 | 17.4% | 25 | 22 | 6 | |
| Markieff Morris | $4,600 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 18.9 | -3.5 | 23.2 | -1.1 | 0.82 | 17.9% | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,500 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 25.3 | -1.4 | 28.5 | -4.7 | 0.89 | 13.6% | 20 | 22 | 14 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,800 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 22.5 | -2.4 | 27.4 | -2.6 | 0.82 | 16.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal (DK GPP), Marcin Gortat (FD – if Mahinmi is out)
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (DK Cash)
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.3 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Kelly Olynyk | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 21 | 25 | 9 | 8 | DvP | 10 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 15 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat have won five of their last ten games and currently sit right outside of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hornets, who typically play much better defense in Charlotte than they do on the road. The Heat have an implied total of only 99.3 points, which is the fourth lowest of the slate and slightly below their season average. With a projected slow pace and a low total, this game doesn’t have a ton of upside.
Tyler Johnson is expected to play tonight and he’s the preferred guard to target from the Heat right now. He is averaging 29 fantasy points over his last four games, while Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters are both trending in the wrong direction. Johnson is an intriguing tournament play, but I’ll gladly play Jawun Evans over him at a cheaper price point. Josh Richardson has flashed some upside recently and could see 35 minutes tonight with Justise Winslow out. You can certainly do a lot worse at small forward in this slate.
With Hassan Whiteside and Winslow both out tonight, James Johnson should be able to crack the 30-minute mark. While the matchup against the Hornets isn’t perfect, most of his value comes from his ability to fill up the stat sheet. He nearly had a triple-double the other night against the Blazers. I will certainly have some shares of Johnson in tournaments. Charlotte has been tough on opposing centers this season, but they have struggled with ones that can shoot. Kelly Olynyk is not your typical center that spends his time in the paint. I can see Dwight Howard having a tough time with Olynyk on the perimeter, which makes him a very sneaky tournament play that should be less than 10% owned.
Notable Injuries
Justise Winslow (Out)
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.3 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.3 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (13 of 22)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,500 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 29.3 | -1.3 | 31.6 | -3.3 | 0.93 | 24.1% | 20 | 24 | 18 |
| Dion Waiters | $5,100 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 23.9 | -2.6 | 30.9 | -0.5 | 0.77 | 23.3% | 20 | 21 | 10 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 20.1 | 1.5 | 32.5 | 0.0 | 0.62 | 14.2% | 22 | 25 | 7 |
| James Johnson | $6,200 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 26.5 | 3.2 | 28.1 | 2.6 | 0.94 | 18.3% | 12 | 9 | 17 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $5,400 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 20.1 | 1.3 | 20.9 | 5.6 | 0.96 | 16.6% | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,700 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 20.6 | 8.4 | 27.4 | 2.6 | 0.75 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Johnson (GPP)
Secondary Plays – James Johnson (Cash), Josh Richardson, Kelly Olynyk (GPP)
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets continue to struggle on the road (2-11) and continue to play well at home (8-6). They have been one of the easier teams to predict this season based on their home/road splits alone. While a matchup against the Heat isn’t exactly ideal (eighth in points allowed per game), the Hornets have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average. The main concern here isn’t the matchup, it’s the expected pace of the game.
Kemba Walker has been quiet in his last few games, but still owns an elite true usage (26%) and we’ve been targeting him at home for years. I like Walker in this spot, I just don’t like him as much as the other point guard options in the slate. We always have to keep in mind the opportunity cost at each position when construction our lineups. I’ve been avoiding Nicolas Batum all season. He is only averaging 0.79 FP/min and he is constantly overpriced.
Dwight Howard should be able to dominate offensively if he is engaged. Even though he’s one of the most unreliable players in DFS, we know his upside is massive. Kelly Olynyk is not a great low post defender and there should be plenty of opportunities for offensive rebounds in this one. Olynyk may pull him away from the rim on defense, but that’s not enough of a concern for us to shy away from using Howard in tournaments. For cash games, find the extra cap space and pay up for Marc Gasol, Nikola Vucevic, or Andre Drummond.
Notable Injuries
None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (11 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (11 of 22)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,700 | $7,300 | $13,300 | 36.5 | -5.0 | 35.4 | 1.3 | 1.03 | 26.0% | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,000 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 23.5 | -0.1 | 29.8 | 2.0 | 0.79 | 18.5% | 14 | 13 | 21 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,400 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.7 | 10.5 | 26.7 | 3.8 | 0.81 | 14.8% | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 19.3 | 4.5 | 26.7 | 5.5 | 0.72 | 12.4% | 13 | 17 | 12 |
| Dwight Howard | $9,200 | $8,100 | $15,600 | 35.2 | 15.1 | 30.0 | 4.9 | 1.17 | 20.4% | 18 | 2 | 15 |
| Frank Kaminsky | $3,700 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.1 | -0.3 | 22.8 | -6.1 | 0.79 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,600 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 26.7 | -13.3 | 27.2 | -6.2 | 0.98 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard (GPP)
Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.5 | Vegas Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.3 | Implied Team Total | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Mario Hezonja | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 29 | 28 | 21 | 29 | 15 | DvP | 9 | 10 | 23 | 3 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 20 | 30 | 27 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 4 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have lost six of their last ten games, but are hoping to have their center back in the lineup tonight. Jusuf Nurkic is such a key piece for them on both ends of the floor. Portland draws a tremendous matchup against the Magic, who are ranked seventh in pace of play and 27th in points allowed per game. Even though this is a road game for the Blazers, they have an implied total of 106.3 points, which is three points above their season average.
Damian Lillard draws a great matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 25th in efficiency and 29th in DvP against point guards this season. He has 50 fantasy point upside in this matchup and he could fly under the radar at his current price point. I slightly prefer Russell Westbrook on FanDuel and Chris Paul on DraftKings, but Lillard is on my short list of potential point guard targets tonight. Shooting guard is one of the deepest positions on the schedule tonight, so while I like the spot for C.J. McCollum, I won’t be forcing him into my lineups.
Al-Farouq Aminu’s game log isn’t that impressive, but he is averaging 33 minutes over his last four games. If he plays 33 minutes tonight against the Magic, he should easily exceed salary-based expectations on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Give Aminu a sizable bump if Nurkic is unable to suit up. As for the rest of the frontcourt, I will continue to avoid them in all formats. There are too many bodies splitting minutes, even if Nurkic ends up sitting out.
Notable Injuries
Jusuf Nurkic (Questionable)
Meyers Leonard (Probable)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (8 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (7 of 22)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.6 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,500 | $9,400 | $17,200 | 42.8 | 2.1 | 37.2 | 2.7 | 1.15 | 29.3% | 25 | 29 | 22 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,100 | $6,900 | 32.2 | 0.7 | 36.6 | 1.1 | 0.88 | 23.0% | 28 | 28 | 20 | |
| Evan Turner | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 17.2 | -2.6 | 26.1 | -1.4 | 0.66 | 15.4% | 27 | 21 | 30 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,500 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 23.9 | -0.5 | 30.0 | 2.6 | 0.80 | 12.0% | 18 | 29 | 27 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $7,200 | $6,700 | $12,300 | 30.8 | 5.0 | 28.0 | 0.6 | 1.10 | 24.3% | 26 | 15 | 5 |
| Meyers Leonard | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 10.6 | -0.3 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 0.90 | 16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Al-Farouq Aminu
Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum
Orlando Magic
The Magic have been one of my favorite teams to target recently. Not only have they been short-handed (which has condensed their rotation), but they play at a fast pace and like to get into shootouts. Unfortunately, tonight’s matchup against the Blazers is their toughest over the last couple of weeks. On the season, Portland is ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Magic’s implied total of 102.8 points is nearly four points below their season average.
With all of the injuries to Orlando, Eflrid Payton’s recent production has been quite disappointing. He can pop at any time, but he’s a tough sell at his current price point. He is only averaging 21 fantasy points over his last four games. Mario Hezonja will be a popular topic of conversation today, after he dropped 43 fantasy points against the Clippers. As always, I try to encourage people not to overreact after a one game sample, whether it was good or bad. Hezonja’s price is all the way up to $5,000 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings. If he’s going to be popular, I will gladly fade him in all formats. Don’t forget that he is only averaging 0.73 FP/min this season.
Jonathon Simmons is playing all of the minutes he can handle right now with Evan Fournier and Arron Afflalo out. He’s basically a lock to play 35+ minutes and he has taken at least 17 shots in each of his last four games. It’s rare that we get that many minutes and that high of shot volume at this price. I will continue to target Simmons in all formats, even though Aaron Gordon will be back in the lineup tonight. Speaking of Gordon, he makes an intriguing tournament play, although Al-Farouq Aminu is an elite defender.
Nikola Vucevic is averaging 1.67 FP/min over his last four games. That is an insane number. His usage rate is off the charts and it has been accompanied by an increase in playing time. I’m a fan of Vucevic on DraftKings tonight, but whether he’s an elite or a secondary play is going to hinge on the availability of Jusuf Nurkic. I would much rather target Vucevic if he is going up against Meyers Leonard. Keep an eye on Nurkic’s status throughout the day and adjust your lineups accordingly.
Notable Injuries
Evan Fournier (Out)
Arron Afflalo (Out)
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (13 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (17 of 22)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.4 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,200 | $6,000 | $13,200 | 27.9 | -5.9 | 28.1 | 3.4 | 0.99 | 20.2% | 7 | 9 | 20 |
| Mario Hezonja | $5,000 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 8.7 | 14.2 | 11.9 | 13.7 | 0.73 | 13.6% | 18 | 10 | 21 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $6,700 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 23.0 | 11.5 | 28.3 | 8.2 | 0.81 | 20.9% | 16 | 23 | 4 |
| Aaron Gordon | $8,200 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 35.7 | -2.9 | 33.7 | 3.2 | 1.06 | 19.1% | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $9,800 | $8,500 | $15,400 | 38.4 | 20.1 | 30.5 | 4.5 | 1.26 | 22.1% | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| D.J. Augustin | $3,700 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 16.2 | -1.3 | 20.1 | 2.8 | 0.81 | 17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jonathon Simmons, Nikola Vucevic (DK – if Nurkic is out)
Secondary Plays – Mario Hezonja, Aaron Gordon (GPP), Nikola Vucevic (DK – if Nurkic is active)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 18 | 22 | 29 | 20 | 27 | DvP | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 29 | 1 | 28 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder can get back to .500 overall with a win tonight against the Sixers. While we don’t really care about their place in the standings, we do care about their matchup. They draw a favorable one tonight, as the Sixers are ranked fourth in pace of play and 24th in points allowed per game. This should be a great environment for fantasy production, as we have a close spread and a high total. The Thunder have an implied team total of 106 points, which is 4.3 points above their season average.
Russell Westbrook is back to posting triple-doubles on a regular basis. While his high turnover rate hurts his production on a site like FanDuel (one point negated for each), his ability to get steals and blocks makes up for it. He’s sitting at a very playable $10,900 on FanDuel. I see Westbrook as an elite play regardless, but I would give him a small boost if Joel Embiid is unable to suit up (elite rim protector). Andre Roberson is going to draw the start, but he’s expected to have his minutes monitored.
Paul George was one of the biggest busts the other night, as he failed to show up against the Pacers. I’m torn on him tonight. While I like his depressed price point and the overall game environment, he’s going to draw the defense of Robert Covington, who has one of the highest defensive real plus-minus grades of any player in basketball. It might make sense to pivot to Carmelo Anthony, who is cheaper and should have the better individual matchup. Steven Adams offers a high floor, but isn’t going to make the final cut in any of my lineups.
Notable Injuries
None
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 101.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (3 of 22)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.9 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.3 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.6 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $10,900 | $11,400 | $20,900 | 50.3 | 0.4 | 36.0 | 1.7 | 1.40 | 33.5% | 11 | 18 | 1 |
| Andre Roberson | $4,500 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 16.0 | 9.6 | 26.5 | 10.3 | 0.60 | 7.4% | 25 | 22 | 29 |
| Paul George | $7,600 | $7,700 | $14,600 | 38.1 | -11.4 | 36.8 | -3.1 | 1.03 | 23.2% | 14 | 29 | 1 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,500 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 30.9 | -2.0 | 32.9 | 2.7 | 0.94 | 23.0% | 10 | 20 | 28 |
| Steven Adams | $6,900 | $6,600 | $11,900 | 30.5 | 3.1 | 31.8 | 2.4 | 0.96 | 14.6% | 17 | 27 | 3 |
| Jerami Grant | $4,000 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 17.8 | -5.4 | 21.6 | -5.2 | 0.82 | 14.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alex Abrines | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 17.9 | 13.6 | 0.53 | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (FD), Paul George (GPP), Carmelo Anthony
Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (DK), Paul George (Cash)
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers picked up a big win in Minnesota the other night and are one of the many teams on the bubble in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The fact that they are playing at home tonight helps, but they draw one of the most difficult matchups on the schedule. The Thunder are currently ranked third in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. The Sixers have an implied total of 107.5 points, which seems a bit high, although this could end up being one of the fastest paced games of the night.
The big question here is whether or not Joel Embiid is going to play. He has been dealing with back soreness, which caused him to miss a game last weekend. He is currently listed as questionable and will likely be a game-time decision. If he is unable to suit up, that’s a huge boost for the rest of their lineup. Ben Simmons might be an interesting fade regardless, as he’ll draw the defense of Andre Roberson and/or Paul George. Both players are elite defenders and we know that Simmons needs to be able to attack the rim to be effective offensively.
Robert Covington grades out as one of the top point-per-dollar small forward targets on DraftKings ($6,100). He should see 35+ minutes tonight, as he’ll be tasked with defending Paul George. He doesn’t have a great matchup on the other end of the floor, but I always like Covington’s ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. Dario Saric, Amir Johnson, Trevor Booker, and Richaun Holmes would all become viable if Embiid sits. If he’s active, all four are easy fades. Embiid himself will be firmly in play on DraftKings ($9,800) if he gets the green light to play.
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid (Questionable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.6 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (6 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (14 of 22)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,200 | $9,500 | $18,900 | 44.1 | -7.0 | 36.2 | 2.4 | 1.22 | 23.7% | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,800 | $5,500 | 26.0 | 1.3 | 33.5 | 1.4 | 0.78 | 18.7% | 9 | 5 | 1 | |
| Robert Covington | $7,000 | $6,100 | $11,900 | 31.0 | 9.2 | 32.2 | 3.9 | 0.96 | 16.2% | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Dario Saric | $6,400 | $5,600 | $12,300 | 24.0 | 6.3 | 29.2 | 4.7 | 0.82 | 17.0% | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Joel Embiid | $11,000 | $9,800 | $17,500 | 46.0 | 13.9 | 30.6 | 7.3 | 1.50 | 28.0% | 4 | 18 | 11 |
| Jerryd Bayless | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 15.6 | -2.9 | 26.5 | -4.3 | 0.59 | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Trevor Booker | $6,000 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 22.8 | 7.4 | 21.9 | -0.4 | 1.04 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBD
Secondary Plays – TBD
Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.8 | Implied Team Total | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 12 | 3 | 22 | 29 | DvP | 6 | 18 | 30 | 14 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 1 | 28 | 10 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 18 | 16 | 30 | 2 | |
Detroit Pistons
Is it just me, or have the Pistons been one of the most frustrating teams in DFS this season? Their two point guards take turns having big games, Avery Bradley is the model of inconsistency, Tobias Harris never shows up when we need him to, and Andre Drummond has one of the widest ranges of potential outcomes of any player in basketball. Rant aside, they do have a nice matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked tenth in pace of play and 21st in points allowed per game. The Pistons’ implied total of 101.8 points is close to their season average.
In an 11-game slate, I want no part of the Reggie Jackson #ish-smith)Ish Smith”:/players/ish-smith-13958 rotation, especially now that Langston Galloway is starting to see minutes. Avery Bradley isn’t going to make any of my lineups tonight, but he’s an intriguing play in large-field tournaments. If you are chasing the top prize in a 50,000 entry GPP, you need to take chances. Bradley is the Pistons’ best shot of slowing Victor Oladipo down and there’s a chance that he could play 32-34 minutes. Tobias Harris is a decent option at power forward, but not one that I’m looking to start my lineups with.
The one Pistons’ player that deserves consideration in all formats is Andre Drummond. After putting up a dud against the Nuggets, he bounced back with a monster game against the Hawks last night, scoring 56 fantasy points in only 31 minutes of action. When it comes to centers, there may not be a better matchup than the Pacers. On the season, they are ranked 28th in efficiency and 29th in DvP. They also have the tenth worst rebounding differential this season. Drummond is expensive, but he’s one of the top targets at center tonight, especially on FanDuel.
Notable Injuries
None
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.5 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (17 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (12 of 22)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $5,700 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 26.6 | -9.3 | 27.6 | -2.9 | 0.96 | 25.5% | 15 | 23 | 7 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,100 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 23.7 | -4.0 | 31.3 | -2.8 | 0.76 | 21.0% | 11 | 12 | 1 |
| Reggie Bullock | $3,500 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 8.6 | 2.2 | 15.7 | 2.2 | 0.55 | 9.9% | 4 | 3 | 28 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 29.0 | -4.5 | 33.2 | -0.6 | 0.87 | 20.2% | 28 | 22 | 10 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,400 | $9,100 | $17,200 | 43.1 | -8.2 | 33.1 | -2.1 | 1.30 | 17.7% | 28 | 29 | 10 |
| Ish Smith | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 17.8 | 0.4 | 19.6 | 1.3 | 0.91 | 24.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley (GPP)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are currently in fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. Their matchup against the Pistons doesn’t look great on paper, but the game is in Indiana and the Pistons are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. The Pacers’ implied total (106.3 points) is slightly lower than their season average, but it’s still the eighth highest of the 22 teams in action tonight.
Darren Collison and Cory Joseph are starting to split minutes the same way that Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith do. It’s a tough rotation to predict and in an 11 game slate, I want to rely on the players that I put into my lineups. Victor Oladipo has been on a tear this season, but he does draw a difficult matchup against Avery Bradley. On the season, the Pistons are ranked first in efficiency against shooting guards. These two teams have already played twice this season and Oladipo has scored 27 and 47 fantasy points. I’m a fan of Oladipo’s price on DraftKings ($8,900), but don’t consider him a must play. I slightly prefer Lou Williams at a $1,300 discount.
Bojan Bogdanovic is always a viable small forward target on FanDuel if you are stuck and need a player at his price point. Thaddeus Young is coming off of a huge game against the Thunder where he racked up ten combined blocks and steals. The Pistons aren’t great against power forwards and it’s one of the thinnest positions of the slate. Myles Turner is averaging 35 minutes and 37 fantasy points over his last four games and is only $6,200 on DraftKings. With all of the attention on the expensive centers, Turner could fly under the radar tonight. Dollar for dollar, he might be the best of the bunch.
Notable Injuries
None
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.5 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (8 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (16 of 22)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,800 | $5,700 | $11,300 | 27.8 | -9.0 | 30.8 | -7.0 | 0.90 | 18.4% | 16 | 6 | 26 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,600 | $8,900 | $16,700 | 42.1 | 7.9 | 34.1 | 5.5 | 1.23 | 27.4% | 1 | 18 | 18 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,700 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 21.1 | -0.9 | 31.8 | 4.3 | 0.66 | 16.0% | 29 | 30 | 16 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,800 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 29.7 | 6.3 | 33.7 | 4.9 | 0.88 | 16.0% | 17 | 14 | 30 |
| Myles Turner | $7,900 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 32.0 | 5.0 | 30.1 | 4.8 | 1.06 | 17.8% | 10 | 7 | 2 |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,500 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 18.7 | 2.2 | 21.9 | 1.6 | 0.85 | 17.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cory Joseph | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 17.8 | -2.3 | 24.6 | 1.5 | 0.72 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |