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NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-17 03:44:51

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Orlando Magic
brooklynnba Vegas Total 217.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 217.5
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 105.5 Team Total 112.0
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- 5.1
Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 21 5 13 12 27 DvP 30 28 30 28 29
DRPM -2.12 -1.66 -0.51 0.57 1.02 DRPM -0.65 -2.53 -2.00 1.89 -0.70

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because they play at the league’s fastest pace and have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. They come into tonight’s game as 6.5-point underdogs against the Magic with the over/under set at 217.5 points. This is a mediocre matchup overall, as Orlando is ranked ninth in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency this season. Brooklyn has an implied total of 105.5 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate, but one point below their season average.

Jeremy Lin missed Wednesday’s game with a back injury and is currently listed as questionable tonight. If he is unable to suit up, Sean Kilpatrick would take over as the main playmaker in this offense. Lin will eventually cut into Kilpatrick’s minutes and usage, so the fantasy appeal here really hinges on Lin’s availability. Bojan Bogdanovic has been a little more consistent this season, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He makes a great GPP play at small forward and can be considered in cash games as well. Trevor Booker is finally starting to see minutes in the 30s. He is averaging 0.99 FP/min on the season, but does draw a difficult matchup against Serge Ibaka. Brook Lopez has a difficult individual matchup against Bismack Biyombo, but the Magic have struggled to defend centers as a whole, allowing the fourth most fantasy points of any team.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Whitehead $3,700 $3,200 $6,200 0.63 23.0 0.9 14.5 0.0 18.7% -0.2% 21 -2.12
Sean Kilpatrick $5,400 $5,600 $8,500 0.89 27.8 1.1 24.7 -6.1 26.4% -4.7% 5 -1.66
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,600 $4,600 $7,900 0.75 27.8 -1.8 20.9 1.9 21.2% 1.2% 13 -0.51
Trevor Booker $6,000 $6,100 $8,500 0.99 28.4 1.2 28.1 -2.0 17.1% -1.0% 12 0.57
Brook Lopez $7,000 $6,900 $10,900 1.12 28.5 1.1 32.0 -1.5 28.3% -1.0% 27 1.02
Jeremy Lin $6,700 $5,500 $9,300 1.16 25.8 -5.7 29.9 -2.8 28.8% -0.9% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick (if Jeremy Lin is out), Bojan Bogdanovic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic (Cash), Trevor Booker, Brook Lopez

Orlando Magic

The Magic have won five of their last ten games, but are still five games below .500 overall. They draw the best possible fantasy matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game at 114.5. Anytime a team faces the Nets, we can give a sizable boost to their offense as a whole. Orlando has an implied total of 112 points, which is the second highest in the slate and a whopping 15.4 points higher than their season average. I believe this is the highest projected point differential that we have seen so far this season.

D.J. Augustin may be the starting point guard in name, but he is only seeing around 20 minutes per contest. Elfrid Payton has been the better play of the two, averaging 29.4 minutes and 32.1 fantasy points per game off the bench in his last three outings. Payton’s price has come up a bit across the industry, but I will have some Elfrid shares in tournaments, especially on DraftKings at a price of $5,100. Evan Fournier minutes took a hit there for a couple of weeks, but he is averaging 34.9 in his last three games. He should have a big outing against a Nets’ defense that is ranked 28th against shooting guards. Aaron Gordon has been one of the most frustrating players in all of daily fantasy basketball this season. While I wouldn’t trust him in a cash game format, this type of game sets up perfectly for his skill set (blocks, steals, dunks). Nikola Vucevic is listed as questionable, but coach Frank Vogel said that he will “give it a go” tonight. His return may cut into the minutes of Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo. All three bigs are still in play against this weak Nets’ frontcourt, but all three are best suited as GPP targets. One of my favorite GPP strategies this season has been to stack any game featuring the Nets and I will certainly be trying that again tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D.J. Augustin $3,600 $3,600 $7,400 0.71 20.5 2.5 14.6 -0.6 22.2% -7.1% 30 -0.65
Evan Fournier $5,900 $5,900 $9,900 0.79 33.3 1.6 26.3 11.9 24.1% 2.7% 28 -2.53
Aaron Gordon $4,700 $4,900 $8,600 0.77 26.2 0.8 20.2 6.6 20.0% 2.6% 30 -2.00
Serge Ibaka $6,200 $6,200 $9,600 0.90 30.5 2.3 27.5 4.2 20.1% 0.7% 28 1.89
Bismack Biyombo $4,600 $5,200 $7,800 0.74 26.3 7.4 19.5 6.9 13.0% -0.2% 29 -0.70
Nikola Vucevic $6,700 $5,900 $9,900 1.13 27.4 31.1 24.5% 29 N/A
Elfrid Payton $5,700 $5,100 $8,700 0.89 28.9 0.5 25.7 6.4 24.1% 4.0% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Evan Fournier

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (DK), Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo (FD), Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Washington Wizards
detroitnba Vegas Total 203.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 102.5 Team Total 101.0
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- -3.0
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Kelly Oubre Otto Porter Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 10 11 10 19 16 DvP 18 4 1 3 6
DRPM -0.50 -1.35 -1.11 1.39 1.68 DRPM -0.20 0.64 0.09 -0.32 2.67

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and are currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight they head to Washington for a pace-up game against the Wizards. Washington has struggled defensively this season, ranking 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pistons have an implied total of 102.5 points, which gives them the third highest projected point differential in the slate at +3.6. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but he is expected to play.

Reggie Jackson has played well in limited minutes this season and it doesn’t sound like he’s going to be playing 30+ minutes anytime soon. Stan Van Gundy said that he’d like to keep Jackson in the 26-28 minute range for the immediate future. This does cap Jackson’s upside, but I love the fact that he has a true usage rate of 31.6%. Even though Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is expected to play tonight, he is an easy fade in a ten game slate. Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris remain viable cash game targets, although they are secondary plays at their respective positions. Marcin Gortat has done an excellent job against Andre Drummond recently. In their last five meetings, Drummond has only scored more than 29 fantasy points one time. Drummond grades out as a top play in most NBA models (mine included), but I’m concerned enough about the matchup to bump him down to a secondary play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,600 $5,400 $9,900 0.84 25.7 3.4 21.7 1.7 31.6% -1.3% 10 -0.50
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,500 $4,600 $8,300 0.73 33.3 0.3 24.5 -6.4 20.5% -2.6% 11 -1.35
Marcus Morris $5,200 $5,300 $8,100 0.73 32.4 4.2 23.7 2.6 20.0% -1.1% 10 -1.11
Tobias Harris $5,700 $5,500 $9,300 0.78 33.1 -4.1 25.8 -8.8 21.4% -3.2% 19 1.39
Andre Drummond $8,300 $7,600 $12,600 1.21 29.7 0.8 36.0 0.6 22.6% -2.5% 16 1.68
Jon Leuer $4,600 $4,200 $7,100 0.80 26.6 0.3 21.3 -0.1 17.1% -2.1% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP), Andre Drummond, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond

Washington Wizards

The Wizards may finally be trending in the right direction. They have won five of their last ten games and are only two games out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point underdogs at home against the Pistons in what will be a pace-down matchup for Washington. Detroit has been terrific on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking second in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Wizards have an implied total of only 101 points, which is the seventh lowest in the slate and 3.1 points below their season average.

Even though I don’t love the matchup against the Pistons, the Wizards make my job easy. They have a very tight rotation and all five of their starters typically play at least 30 minutes. If Markieff Morris is unable to suit up again (he’s a true game-time decision), you can make the argument for a few Wizards’ players tonight. With Morris out against the Hornets, all five of the Wizards’ starters exceeded value. Obviously, the matchup isn’t quite as favorable this time around, but the minutes will be there for the starters. Kelly Oubre would become a top value play in Morris’s absence, as he is only $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter would all deserve consideration as well, although none of the three should be considered must starts at their respective positions. Marcin Gortat has scored at least 28 fantasy points in two of his last three meetings against Andre Drummond and his minutes would also be solidified if Morris is ruled out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,800 $8,900 $13,400 1.24 36.2 1.4 44.9 5.2 35.8% 3.1% 18 -0.20
Bradley Beal $7,000 $6,700 $11,000 0.90 35.0 1.3 31.6 3.2 26.1% -0.3% 4 0.64
“(player-popup)Kelly Oubre Jr $4,000 $4,000 $7,600 0.67 18.0 13.3 12.0 13.6 14.7% -0.3% 1 0.09
Otto Porter $5,500 $5,600 $9,900 0.81 34.6 0.7 28.0 -9.3 15.0% -4.0% 3 -0.32
Marcin Gortat $6,200 $5,900 $9,900 0.85 35.2 -0.9 29.8 0.2 13.7% 0.0% 6 2.67
Jason Smith $3,700 $3,000 $6,000 0.61 11.2 -0.4 6.8 6.1 15.9% 7.5% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Kelly Oubre (if Markieff Morris is out), John Wall (DK)

Secondary Plays – John Wall (FD), Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat

Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Boston Celtics
charlottenba Vegas Total 207.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 99.8 Team Total 107.3
Pace +/- -0.5 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Ramon Sessions Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 13 6 28 20 25 DvP 17 12 23 16 21
DRPM -2.86 -2.60 1.09 1.15 2.09 DRPM -0.82 0.28 1.64 0.25 1.93

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets will be without their point guard tonight, as Kemba Walker has been ruled out for personal reasons. He is expected to rejoin the the team for tomorrow’s game against the Hawks. Even without Walker, the Hornets are only 7.5-point underdogs against the Celtics tonight in Boston. This is a mediocre matchup for fantasy production, as the Celtics are ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency this season. Charlotte comes into the game with an implied total of only 99.8 points, but that doesn’t seem too bad considering the fact that they are without their best player.

With Kemba Walker out, Ramon Sessions should push for 30+ minutes tonight against the Celtics. Isaiah Thomas has one of the worst DRPM (Defensive Real Plus-Minus) ratings in the NBA and if you know me, then you know that I love targeting value point guards that get spot starts thanks to injuries. Sessions is averaging 0.75 FP/min this season and is an elite play in all formats. Nicolas Batum stands to gain a huge boost in usage tonight. Using our CourtIQ tool, you can see that his usage rate spikes by 4% when Walker is off the floor. Batum does draw a difficult matchup against Avery Bradley, although surprisingly Bradley has one of the worst DRPM’s of any shooting guard this season (insert pondering emoji). The best way to attack Boston is in the frontcourt and while I generally try to avoid the bigs from Charlotte, they should be more involved offensively tonight. Marvin Williams is a borderline elite play at his price point and Marco Belinelli makes a nice GPP play off the bench.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ramon Sessions $4,300 $3,700 $7,100 0.75 16.3 -1.8 12.3 -1.4 21.7% 0.0% 13 -2.86
Nicolas Batum $7,400 $7,100 $10,700 0.91 34.5 0.1 31.4 -2.2 21.7% 1.8% 6 -2.60
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,900 $4,200 $7,800 0.76 29.1 -5.9 22.2 -6.4 14.6% -0.3% 28 1.09
Marvin Williams $4,100 $4,000 $7,700 0.71 27.2 1.0 19.4 -2.6 17.3% -2.0% 20 1.15
Cody Zeller $5,000 $4,300 $7,500 0.87 25.4 2.6 22.0 2.6 16.8% 2.2% 25 2.09
Frank Kaminsky $4,500 $4,000 $7,300 0.80 25.8 -2.4 20.7 -4.3 21.2% 3.1% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Ramon Sessions, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams

Secondary Plays – Marco Belinelli

Boston Celtics

After missing the last four games with a groin injury, Isaiah Thomas will be back in the lineup tonight against the Hornets. Thomas said that he is close to 100%, so he should resume his typical role in the starting lineup. The Celtics come in the game as 7.5-point favorites at home tonight against the Hornets. This isn’t an ideal matchup on paper, as Charlotte is ranked 11th in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency this season. With that said, the Celtics are in a nice spot against a short-handed Hornets’ team. Boston has an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate.

I typically try to avoid players in their first game coming back from injury, but it’s hard to ignore that $7,000 price tag on DraftKings for Isaiah Thomas. I wouldn’t recommend him in a cash game format, but he is certainly worth a look in tournaments. He draws a favorable matchup against Ramon Sessions, who has a DRPM of -0.82 this season. Thomas should cut into the minutes of Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier and he may also cut into the usage rate of Avery Bradley. Bradley’s price has come way down on DraftKings though, which puts him in play for cash games. Jae Crowder is a nice mid-range small forward option on FanDuel, especially on a night with so few options at the position.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,200 $7,000 $11,700 1.15 33.3 38.2 35.0% 17 -0.82
Avery Bradley $7,200 $6,500 $10,900 0.91 35.5 -0.6 32.2 1.2 22.4% 2.4% 12 0.28
Jae Crowder $5,600 $5,400 $8,900 0.83 30.1 1.9 24.9 0.3 17.9% 0.3% 23 1.64
Amir Johnson $3,600 $3,200 $7,700 0.78 19.7 -0.2 15.3 0.6 14.5% -0.2% 16 0.25
Al Horford $7,700 $6,300 $11,000 1.06 32.6 0.5 34.6 -3.6 22.8% 3.1% 21 1.93
Marcus Smart $5,100 $5,700 $8,300 0.73 30.9 5.2 22.7 3.7 20.2% 0.6% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Jae Crowder

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK), Avery Bradley (DK), Al Horford

Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Toronto Raptors
atlantanba Vegas Total 213.5 torontonba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- 2.6
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Thabo Sefolosha Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 14 1 11 16 11 DvP 29 24 15 9 2
DRPM 0.15 -1.86 0.33 1.27 0.11 DRPM -2.29 2.75 -0.16 4.11 2.70

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have lost eight of their last ten games and would be out of the playoff picture if the regular season ended today. I expect them to right the ship at some point, but it probably won’t happen tonight against the Raptors in Toronto. This isn’t as intimidating of a matchup as it has been in year’s past, but Toronto is still ranked above the league average in both points allowed and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks come into the game as 7.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 103 points.

Dennis Schroder is playing the best basketball of his season right now, scoring at least 34 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. We’ve always though of Kyle Lowry as an elite defender, but he has taken a step back in that department this season. Lowry has a neutral DRPM of 0.15 and the Raptors are ranked 14th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Schroder is the one Hawks’ player that stands out from the Hawks tonight. Thabo Sefolosha has been a nice value play at small forward since joining the starting lineup, but his minute upside is capped with Kent Bazemore back in the lineup. Paul Millsap is averaging 46.8 fantasy points in his last three games, but I don’t want to pay a premium for him on the road in a ten game slate. Dwight Howard will have a monster fantasy game every now and then, but I’ve given up trying to chase it. He is strictly a GPP play at this point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,000 $6,600 $10,400 0.94 30.2 5.0 28.5 9.5 29.6% 0.5% 14 0.15
Thabo Sefolosha $4,500 $4,900 $6,700 0.80 25.3 4.2 20.2 8.5 14.6% 3.0% 1 -1.86
Kent Bazemore $4,000 $4,300 $8,000 0.78 26.4 -11.8 20.6 -12.0 22.0% 5.2% 11 0.33
Paul Millsap $8,300 $8,000 $12,900 1.07 33.1 1.9 35.5 11.3 24.2% -1.1% 16 1.27
Dwight Howard $7,400 $7,200 $12,500 1.16 28.7 2.0 33.2 6.0 20.0% -1.7% 11 0.11
Tim Hardaway Jr. $3,900 $4,100 $6,600 0.74 22.0 5.6 16.3 2.3 22.3% 2.2% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (Cash), Thabo Sefolosha, Paul Millsap

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are playing at a truly efficient level on offense this season. Despite ranking 23rd in pace of play, they are averaging the third most points per game at 111.9. The crazy part is that they will only get better once Jared Sullinger joins in on the fun (expected to make his Raptors debut in January). The Raptors draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 15th in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency this season. Even in a neural matchup, Toronto still has the third highest implied total in the slate at 110.5 points.

Kyle Lowry has one of the best individual matchups in the entire slate. The Hawks have been a solid team defensively this season, but just imagine how much better they would be if Dennis Schroder could defend. He has a DRPM of -2.29 and the Hawks have allowed the second most fantasy points to point guards. Lowry should see minutes in the high 30s in one of the best possible matchups. Even at his elevated price point and even with the great values at point guard, Lowry deserves to be considered an elite play in all formats. DeMar DeRozan is a great example of why we should use DvP in conjunction with DRPM. If you only used DvP, you would see that the Hawks are ranked 24th against the position. However, the biggest reason for that is because Kyle Korver was starting at shooting guard for most of the season. DeRozan isn’t going to match up against Korver, he will match up against Thabo Sefolosha, who has a DRPM of 2.75 (which is elite). The tough matchup for DeRozan is even more reason to like Lowry tonight. DeMarre Carroll has been a viable value at small forward and that should continue tonight against Kent Bazemore.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $8,300 $12,100 1.04 37.2 -1.5 38.7 -0.5 26.8% -1.5% 29 -2.29
DeMar DeRozan $8,400 $7,800 $13,000 1.14 35.5 -2.4 40.3 -5.8 34.4% -0.5% 24 2.75
DeMarre Carroll $4,200 $4,500 $8,500 0.73 26.3 -2.0 19.1 2.2 16.0% 5.3% 15 -0.16
Pascal Siakam $3,500 $3,000 $7,200 0.68 18.8 -3.5 12.7 -3.1 13.0% 3.3% 9 4.11
Jonas Valanciunas $5,500 $5,500 $9,100 0.92 27.9 -0.7 25.7 -0.2 18.9% 1.3% 2 2.70
Patrick Patterson $4,200 $3,900 $7,100 0.67 28.8 -0.9 19.4 -2.0 12.7% -1.6% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry

Secondary Plays – DeMarre Carroll

Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Chicago Bulls
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 204.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 99.5 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- -1.1 Pace +/- 0.3
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 5 13 17 21 18 DvP 7 17 26 21 15
DRPM -0.35 0.40 1.31 2.00 0.80 DRPM 3.24 -0.18 -0.68 -1.46 1.14

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after beating the Bulls easily at home last night. They now get to face Chicago again, although this time it will be on the road. The Bucks come into the game as 5-point underdogs with the over/under set at 204 points. Even though Milwaukee out up 108 points last night, this is not a matchup that stands out in terms of potential fantasy production. On the season, Chicago is ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. With an implied total of only 99.5 points, this could be a good spot to fade the Bucks as a whole. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker both had massive fantasy outings last night, but I’m never excited about the idea of targeting players against Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson. I’m expecting a much better effort from Chicago on the defensive end of the floor and both of those players will have a higher ownership than they should. With that said, I will still have some exposure to Giannis in tournaments and power forward is so thin that you can look at Parker in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $9,900 $9,300 $14,200 1.35 34.7 5.1 46.7 5.7 30.2% 1.2% 5 -0.35
Matthew Dellavedova $4,100 $3,800 $7,500 0.69 28.5 1.0 19.6 -2.3 19.7% -2.2% 13 0.40
Tony Snell $3,600 $3,300 $7,000 0.52 29.6 1.5 15.3 0.2 13.0% -2.0% 17 1.31
Jabari Parker $6,300 $6,600 $10,300 0.94 32.7 -1.5 30.9 -2.3 25.6% -0.3% 21 2.00
John Henson $4,600 $4,200 $7,700 0.94 20.3 1.6 19.1 0.8 16.2% 1.9% 18 0.80
Greg Monroe $4,800 $4,400 $7,700 1.19 19.1 0.9 22.7 -3.5 22.4% -4.4% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Jabari Parker (FD)

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker (DK)

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls were in a huge hole last night against the Bucks and were never able to fully dig themselves out of it. The NBA is funny, as I fully expect the Bulls to come out and win tonight’s game against a team that smoked them last night. Chicago is listed as 5-point favorites with an implied total of 104.5 points. This is a favorable matchup overall, as the Bucks are ranked 12th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. While I expect a better effort from the Bulls tonight, none of their players stand out as must starts. Rajon Rondo draws a difficult matchup, Dwyane Wade is hard to trust in the second half of a back-to-back, and Jimmy Butler is extremely expensive. Of the three, Butler is by far my favorite play. He is averaging 38.3 minutes and 45 fantasy points in his last three games. Taj Gibson is an interesting value on DraftKings at only $4,800. After getting torched by Jabari Parker last night, he finds himself in a nice bounce-back spot. Robin Lopez is also an intriguing value on DraftKings at a price of only $4,700.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,000 $5,800 $9,500 0.87 31.2 0.1 27.1 -6.1 21.3% -4.4% 7 3.24
Dwyane Wade $7,300 $7,000 $10,600 1.02 31.7 1.9 32.5 2.7 29.7% 0.5% 17 -0.18
Jimmy Butler $9,000 $9,000 $13,100 1.15 36.6 1.7 42.2 2.8 29.1% 1.1% 26 -0.68
Taj Gibson $5,300 $4,800 $8,600 0.89 28.5 -2.6 25.3 -4.2 19.0% 2.3% 21 -1.46
Robin Lopez $5,100 $4,700 $8,600 0.82 28.5 1.1 23.4 -0.8 16.0% -4.5% 15 1.14
Nikola Mirotic $4,100 $3,600 $7,400 0.84 22.4 -1.4 18.8 -4.6 18.5% -4.6% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (DK), Taj Gibson (DK), Robin Lopez (DK)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious