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NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-10 03:07:15

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Charlotte Hornets
orlandonba Vegas Total 202.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 98.0 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 18 7 19 14 16 2016-17 24 7 6 9 21

Orlando Magic

The Magic are 10-13 on the season, but they have been more competitive in the last couple of weeks. They come into tonight’s game as 6.5-point underdogs against the Hornets in what should be a fairly low scoring affair. The Hornets have been stout defensively this season, ranking 11th in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Magic have an implied total of 98 points, which is the third lowest in the slate. The good news is that their total is 3.7 points above their season average, which gives them the sixth best projected point differential on the board.

The Magic have been a tough team to predict in terms of individual fantasy production this season. Frank Vogel has had a deep and inconsistent rotation and there have really only been two starters that have seen 30+ minutes on a regular basis – Evan Fournier and Bismack Biyombo. The Hornets have two very capable wing defenders in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, which limits the appeal of Fournier in both cash games and tournaments. Biyombo is certainly worth a look at a discounted price of $4,400 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings. He has played at least 30 minutes in seven of his last eight games. D.J. Augustin and Elfrid Payton continue to be in a timeshare at point guard, which is never appealing for DFS. Serge Ibaka has played well over the last couple of weeks, but I don’t want to pay a premium for him in a nine game slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
D.J. Augustin $3,800 $3,700 $7,400 0.73 20.2 2.9 14.8 2.3 23.3% -5.9% 18
Evan Fournier $5,300 $5,300 $9,900 0.76 33.4 -3.7 25.3 -8.9 24.0% -2.5% 7
Aaron Gordon $4,000 $4,000 $8,600 0.75 25.9 -0.6 19.4 -1.3 19.9% -0.8% 19
Serge Ibaka $6,200 $6,000 $9,600 0.91 30.2 0.0 27.4 3.8 20.2% -0.7% 14
Bismack Biyombo $4,400 $4,300 $7,800 0.73 25.8 3.1 18.8 3.7 12.7% 0.0% 16
Nikola Vucevic $7,000 $5,900 $9,900 1.15 27.6 -0.9 31.6 -1.1 24.5% 1.1% 16
Elfrid Payton $5,400 $4,300 $8,700 0.87 29.0 -0.5 25.1 4.1 23.4% -0.2% 18

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier, Bismack Biyombo

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are looking for their third win in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Magic. This will be a pace-down game for Charlotte and it’s not a great matchup on paper. On the season, Orlando is ranked fifth in points allowed per game, 11th in defensive efficiency, and eighth in fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t seem overly concerned about the matchup though, as the Hornets still have the eighth highest implied total in the slate. Generally, when I am trying to predict pace, I give a slightly bigger weight to the pace of the team playing at home.

Kemba Walker is averaging 37.7 fantasy points per game this season with an elite true usage rate of 31.2%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 24th against point guards on the season. The other reason to like Walker is the fact that he is playing at home. On the season, he is averaging 4.3 more fantasy points per game at home than he is on the road. He’s an elite play on DraftKings ($7,200) and a secondary play on FanDuel ($8,400). Nicolas Batum is averaging over 40 fantasy points in his last three games, but his price has come up across the industry and the Magic have been very good at defending shooting guards and small forwards. I will continue to avoid the Hornets’ frontcourt when everyone is healthy; there are too many bodies splitting minutes to make any of them viable fantasy options.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kemba Walker $8,400 $7,200 $12,000 1.13 33.5 1.8 37.7 -2.9 31.2% 0.3% 24
Nicolas Batum $7,100 $6,500 $10,700 0.90 34.8 2.9 31.5 9.6 21.3% 1.3% 7
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,000 $4,300 $8,200 0.75 30.3 -4.5 22.7 -1.8 14.3% 1.1% 6
Marvin Williams $4,400 $4,200 $8,200 0.73 27.5 -1.5 20.0 0.0 17.5% -1.6% 9
Cody Zeller $4,500 $4,000 $7,700 0.87 25.1 5.1 21.8 -0.9 16.5% -2.6% 21
Frank Kaminsky $4,400 $4,000 $7,300 0.82 26.1 -0.7 21.4 1.2 21.0% -1.1% 9

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (FD), Nicolas Batum

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Boston Celtics
torontonba Vegas Total 208.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 103.5 Team Total 105.0
Pace +/- -0.5 Pace +/- -1.7
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 6 9 29 19 29 2016-17 15 1 12 13 13

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after beating the Wolves at home last night. They head to Boston tonight to take on the Celtics in what should be a close, high-scoring game. The game has a low spread of 1.5 points and the over/under is set at 208.5. This is an exploitable matchup for the Raptors, as Boston is ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. With that said, Toronto’s implied total is set at only 103.5 points, which is eight points below their season average. They have the worst projected point differential in the entire slate.

Kyle Lowry logged 38 minutes last night against the Wolves. For most players, we would be concerned about their minutes being monitored in the second half of a back-to-back, but Lowry is averaging 38 minutes in four back-to-back games this season. He is ranked second in the NBA in minutes per game and we know Dwayne Casey doesn’t mind playing him and DeMar DeRozan all of the minutes that they can handle. Speaking of DeRozan, he is an intriguing play on DraftKings, although I generally try to avoid wing players against the Celtics. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are two of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Norman Powell is expected to draw the start for DeMarre Carroll tonight. He offers decent value at the position, but I wouldn’t consider him a building block. The best way to attack the Celtics is with big men that are elite rebounders and the Raptors have one of those in Jonas Valanciunas. He is an elite GPP play at his discounted price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $8,100 $12,100 1.02 37.4 -0.8 38.3 3.1 26.9% -3.1% 6
DeMar DeRozan $8,700 $7,900 $13,000 1.14 35.8 -0.5 41.0 -0.7 34.6% -2.4% 9
Norman Powell $3,500 $4,000 $6,800 0.77 14.2 -8.1 11.0 -7.3 17.7% -9.0% 29
Pascal Siakam $3,600 $3,000 $7,200 0.68 19.6 -0.8 13.4 0.7 12.9% 2.9% 19
Jonas Valanciunas $5,100 $4,900 $9,100 0.91 28.0 -3.0 25.4 -4.5 18.4% 0.5% 29
Patrick Patterson $4,400 $4,000 $7,600 0.68 28.8 -1.9 19.5 1.4 12.8% 6.9% 19

Elite Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, Jonas Valanciunas (Cash)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won seven of their last ten games and currently sit in third in the Eastern Conference standings at 13-8. Targeting players against the Raptors used to be like targeting players against the Spurs, but their defense has taken a big step back this season. Toronto is ranked 13th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Even without their starting point guard tonight, the Celtics are still projected to score 105 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate.

Isaiah Thomas has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which gives a sizable boost to everyone on the floor. He had one of the highest true usage rates in the NBA and that usage isn’t going to get completely soaked up by Marcus Smart himself. Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and Al Horford will all have bigger roles in the offense tonight. Smart only played 23 minutes in his spot start the other night, but the game was out of hand when he came out of the game in the third quarter. I am projecting him to play 30-32 minutes tonight and I see him as an elite value play in all formats. Bradley will get overlooked in this slate, but he’s a better point-per-dollar play than most of the other shooting guard options. The only issue with Bradley is that the Raptors are ranked first against shooting guards. Jae Crowder is one of the safest cash game plays on the board. He should see minutes in the mid 30s and he sees a small boost with DeMarre Carroll out. Al Horford didn’t have a great game the other night, but the Celtics were running their offense through him regularly. He has an outside shot of posting a triple-double in this one. Terry Rozier had a career game the other night, but I’m not relying on that production tonight. I’ll let others chase those points, while I’m going to pay up a bit more for Smart.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Marcus Smart $5,100 $5,500 $8,300 0.73 30.1 -2.5 22.0 -0.8 19.9% -1.9% 15
Avery Bradley $6,900 $6,500 $10,900 0.90 35.5 -2.1 31.9 1.5 22.1% 0.5% 1
Jae Crowder $5,600 $5,700 $8,900 0.84 29.7 3.3 24.8 0.0 17.7% -2.6% 12
Amir Johnson $3,500 $3,100 $7,700 0.78 19.7 -5.2 15.3 -5.1 14.6% 0.6% 13
Al Horford $7,900 $6,900 $11,000 1.10 32.4 0.3 35.6 -2.9 21.9% 2.5% 13
Terry Rozier $4,200 $3,800 $6,400 0.79 18.5 -1.8 14.6 1.1 17.3% 6.1% 15

Elite Plays – Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Terry Rozier

Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET

Miami Heat Cleveland Cavaliers
miaminba Vegas Total 207.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 98.0 Team Total 109.5
Pace +/- 0.7 Pace +/- -2.6
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Wayne Ellington Rodney McGruder Josh McRoberts Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving DeAndre Liggins LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 25 27 18 4 14 2016-17 3 5 21 6 26

Miami Heat

The Heat can’t seem to play a game without another one of their players getting injured. They will be extremely short-handed tonight, as they square off against the defending champions in Cleveland. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout, as the Heat are 11.5-point underdogs on the road. They have the third lowest implied total in the slate, although their total (98.0) is actually higher than their season average in points scored per game (97.3). While I won’t have a lot of exposure to the Heat in cash games, there are a number of viable tournament plays here.

Goran Dragic draws a favorable matchup against Kyrie Irving and will need another big game for the Heat to keep this one close. His true usage in his last three games is over 31%. Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder are both safe bets to play 30+ minutes tonight. Neither player has an incredibly high floor, but they both offer decent value at their respective positions. My favorite play here is Tyler Johnson, who should see minutes in the low 30s off the bench. His ownership is always lower than it should be and he has scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of his last five games. Hassan Whiteside seems a bit expensive for a matchup against Tristan Thompson, but he still grades out as one of the top tournament plays at the center position. This game has the potential for a stack, as you can target 3-4 Miami players with one of the big three from the Cavaliers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Goran Dragic $7,300 $7,500 $11,100 0.96 33.5 3.2 32.1 5.7 29.0% 2.1% 25
Wayne Ellington $4,800 $4,500 $7,200 0.65 34.0 3.4 22.3 -0.1 17.4% 0.9% 27
Rodney McGruder $4,000 $3,900 $7,100 0.56 24.6 10.3 13.8 7.5 13.8% 0.7% 18
Josh McRoberts $3,500 $3,900 $7,000 0.71 17.1 12.3 12.2 5.8 19.7% -0.7% 4
Hassan Whiteside $8,800 $8,800 $13,900 1.21 33.5 4.6 40.7 1.8 22.4% -0.3% 14
Tyler Johnson $5,500 $5,500 $7,900 0.85 30.4 4.6 25.7 5.2 21.3% 1.0% 25

Elite Plays – Tyler Johnson, Goran Dragic (GPP), Hassan Whiteside (GPP),

Secondary Plays – Wayne Ellington, Josh McRoberts, Goran Dragic (Cash), Hassan Whiteside (Cash)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers own the best record in the Eastern Conference at 15-5. There was talk earlier in the season that they were going to go for the best record in the NBA, but it’s going to be tough to catch the Warriors out West. Cleveland should be able to take care of business tonight at home against the Heat, who are missing half of their team. The Cavaliers are huge favorites in this one and they have the fourth highest implied total in the slate at 109.5. Kevin Love and J.R. Smith are both listed as questionable tonight, so keep an eye out for an update closer to tip-off.

Kyrie Irving continues to be a little too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but it’s hard to make room for him at a position that is so stacked with viable plays. I have no problem with using Irving, he just doesn’t ever make the final cut when I’m putting together my cash game lineup. I will say that Irving would become an elite play if Kevin Love is unable to suit up. Regardless of J.R. Smith availability, I will not be targeting any of the Cavaliers’ shooting guards tonight. LeBron James seems to score between 40-50 fantasy points almost every night and is a strong cash game option at home. He’s not my favorite superstar to target in the slate, but he would skyrocket up those rankings if Kevin Love is unable to suit up. Tristan Thompson is coming off of a 20-rebound game, but I’m worried about foul trouble going up against Hassan Whiteside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyrie Irving $7,300 $7,100 $11,800 1.02 34.0 1.1 34.7 1.0 31.1% 0.2% 3
DeAndre Liggins $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.60 10.3 10.6 6.1 6.3 12.2% -4.2% 5
LeBron James $9,800 $9,600 $14,800 1.26 36.4 3.3 46.0 2.9 32.7% -0.7% 21
Kevin Love $7,800 $7,600 $12,400 1.16 31.9 3.6 37.1 -2.8 25.9% -2.3% 6
Tristan Thompson $5,100 $4,900 $7,500 0.82 29.3 0.7 24.0 2.6 9.2% 1.4% 26
Iman Shumpert $3,600 $3,500 $6,900 0.63 21.7 -0.6 13.6 1.3 14.0% 1.3% 5

Elite Plays – TBD (depends on the availability of Kevin Love)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James (bump both up to elite plays if Kevin Love is out)

Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Minnesota Timberwolves
detroitnba Vegas Total 204.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 100.8
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- -2.6
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 20 4 12 16 11 2016-17 17 6 2 5 11

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and currently sit at .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on a Wolves’ team that is playing in the second half of a back-to-back (that includes travel in between games). This is a favorable matchup on paper, as the Wolves are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency this season. The Pistons have an implied total of 103.3 points, which is 4.1 points above their season average. We can give a small boost to the Pistons’ offense as a whole and the fact that the spread is set at only 2.5 points makes them even more appealing.

Reggie Jackson is nearing that point of being able to play him in DFS. He played 26 minutes the other night against the Hornets and that was in the second half of a back-to-back. I tentatively expect him to see between 28-30 minutes tonight, which puts him on my radar as a tournament flier on DraftKings ($5,200). He will likely be priced around $6,500 here in the next few weeks. The Wolves do a nice job of defending wing players, which makes Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris easy fades. Tobias Harris draws a nice matchup against the slower Gorgui Dieng. Harris is averaging 37.9 minutes in his last three games, but FanDuel finally decided to adjust his price. Andre Drummond is always a fine tournament play, but if I’m targeting a center in this game, it is going to be the big KAT.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Reggie Jackson $5,800 $5,200 $9,900 0.89 22.3 0.0 19.8 0.0 33.0% 0.0% 20
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,700 $5,600 $8,300 0.75 33.2 1.1 24.9 -2.0 20.5% -2.2% 4
Marcus Morris $5,000 $5,100 $8,100 0.73 31.9 0.0 23.3 -0.8 20.0% -3.9% 12
Tobias Harris $6,200 $5,800 $9,300 0.80 33.6 4.3 27.0 -0.2 21.6% -2.3% 16
Andre Drummond $8,200 $7,600 $12,600 1.22 29.6 1.6 36.1 4.8 22.8% -0.4% 11
Jon Leuer $4,600 $4,300 $7,100 0.81 26.6 -2.4 21.6 -2.3 17.3% 0.2% 16

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP), Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond (GPP)

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves can’t seem to find their rhythm this season. They have lost eight of their last ten games and are 6-16 overall. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, after losing to the Raptors in Toronto last night. They draw a difficult matchup against the Pistons, who are a slow paced team that is ranked inside the top six in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. With an implied total of only 100.8 points, we shouldn’t get carried away with targeting too many players from the Wolves tonight. The two positions that the Pistons have struggled with this season are point guard and center. Ricky Rubio is still underpriced on DraftKings at only $4,900. Karl-Anthony Towns is also underpriced on DraftKings and is the one Wolves’ player that I am considering in cash games. There aren’t many centers that have a high floor and a high ceiling like the big KAT and a matchup against Andre Drummond isn’t scaring anyone.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Ricky Rubio $5,500 $4,900 $8,800 0.73 30.6 1.9 22.4 2.3 17.0% 1.0% 17
Zach LaVine $6,000 $6,000 $10,300 0.76 37.2 3.0 28.4 4.2 22.8% 1.0% 6
Andrew Wiggins $6,000 $6,300 $10,500 0.82 36.6 0.6 29.9 -1.3 27.9% -1.7% 2
Gorgui Dieng $5,500 $5,400 $10,100 0.83 31.2 1.2 25.8 -1.5 16.2% 0.9% 5
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,200 $8,300 $13,600 1.16 34.9 0.6 40.5 -1.4 27.1% -0.6% 11

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (FD), Ricky Rubio (FD)

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Oklahoma City Thunder
houstonnba Vegas Total 225.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 225.0
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 112.0 Team Total 113.0
Pace +/- 2.7 Pace +/- 1.1
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 27 3 12 18 2 2016-17 8 21 25 14 24

Houston Rockets

It’s always a treat when these two teams square off. They are both ranked inside the top ten in pace of play this season and there are typically a lot of points scored in these matchups. The Thunder are ranked seventh in defensive efficiency, but they play at such a fast pace that it is hard to limit opponent’s scoring. On the season, Oklahoma City is ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 15th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Rockets have an implied total of 112 points, which is the second highest in the slate.

In his last five meetings against the Thunder, Harden has scored at least 55 fantasy points four times. He did struggle a bit in their matchup earlier this season, but I’m willing to throw that one bad outing out the window. He is ranked second in the NBA in true usage and he is averaging 52.8 fantasy points per game. His minutes and production have been down recently, but he loves facing his former team. I expect him to be aggressive right from tip-off. Patrick Beverley is an interesting punt at point guard, as he should see 30+ minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble. He doesn’t do a lot of ball-handling in this offense, but he should get plenty of open looks behind the three-point line. Eric Gordon usage has gone up since being moved to the bench. He is still averaging 31 minutes per game, he just has more shot opportunities now that he is playing with the second unit. Trevor Ariza is always in play in games like this, I just don’t like to roster players with such a wide range of possible outcomes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Patrick Beverley $4,900 $4,800 $7,800 0.78 29.0 1.8 22.7 6.7 15.4% 3.9% 27
James Harden $11,500 $11,500 $16,400 1.44 36.7 -3.9 52.8 -6.2 38.5% -1.0% 3
Trevor Ariza $5,500 $5,500 $8,600 0.76 33.3 -2.6 25.3 4.6 15.0% 1.1% 12
Ryan Anderson $4,500 $4,700 $9,000 0.69 30.7 -4.7 21.2 1.1 17.2% -0.7% 18
Clint Capela $5,900 $5,600 $8,700 1.05 25.8 -3.2 27.1 1.1 17.8% 1.4% 2
Eric Gordon $5,400 $5,500 $9,200 0.80 31.0 -4.8 24.7 3.0 22.8% 2.0% 3

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have won six games in a row thanks to six straight triple-doubles by Russell Westbrook. The level that he is playing at right now is truly remarkable. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder come into the game with the highest implied total in the entire slate. Their total is also 5.6 points above their season average, which gives them the third highest projected point differential on the board.

I already mentioned the ridiculous fact that Russell Westbrook has posted six straight triple-doubles, but the crazy part is that he was one assist shy in the game before that. If he would have gotten that one extra assist, he would have TEN triple-doubles in a row. At this point, I don’t see how you can fade him. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Patrick Beverley as a defender, but I’m not going to let his defense take me off of Westbrook tonight. Russ has scored at least 48 fantasy points in each of his last five meetings against the Rockets and you know he wants to keep his triple-double streak alive. Victor Oladipo is a viable tournament play here, as he should see minutes in the upper 30s against James Harden “defense.” Steven Adams is an interesting buy-low candidate, but he hasn’t shown a high ceiling in a few weeks.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Russell Westbrook $12,700 $12,800 $16,600 1.65 35.7 1.8 58.8 5.0 45.0% 1.5% 8
Victor Oladipo $6,500 $6,500 $10,400 0.79 35.2 3.7 27.8 3.7 21.0% -1.1% 21
Andre Roberson $3,900 $4,200 $7,000 0.59 30.9 5.6 18.3 1.2 10.4% -1.5% 25
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,200 $7,800 0.63 21.7 -0.9 13.7 1.7 14.4% -2.0% 14
Steven Adams $4,800 $5,000 $8,400 0.77 30.2 -8.7 23.2 -4.9 15.0% 3.9% 24
Enes Kanter $5,100 $4,400 $8,800 1.15 19.3 0.6 22.1 0.4 25.0% 1.9% 14

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Steven Adams

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious