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NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-22 16:03:41

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Detroit Pistons Washington Wizards
detroitnba Vegas Total 211.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 105.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 100.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Anthony Tolliver Andre Drummond Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 15 26 28 10 11 Opp. Season 13 12 4 14 12
Last 3 Weeks 25 27 15 27 5 Last 3 Weeks 17 13 27 2 21

Detroit Pistons

Record: 27-27 — Road: 11-17 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pistons were one of the few teams to make a move at the trade deadline. They traded away Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova and received Tobias Harris, Marcus Thornton, and Donatas Motiejunas in return. The Pistons head to Washington to take on the Wizards tonight in what should be a competitive game throughout. The Pistons are projected to score 105 points, which is 3.2 points above their scoring average.

The Wizards have been a favorable matchup for opposing players this season. They are ranked 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Tobias Harris is expected to play tonight, while Marcus Thornton and Donatas Motiejunas are out. With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope returning to the lineup, it really clouds the minute picture for both Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson. Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson are both deep tournament plays, but we may want to wait a game or two before targeting any Pistons’ players in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Washington Wizards

Record: 24-28 — Home: 12-16 — Last 10: 4-6

The Wizards were another team that was active right before the trade deadline. They added Markieff Morris, which could be exactly what they need to push them over the hump and get back into the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards are small favorites tonight against the Pistons with their team total set at 106 points.

The Pistons are better than advertised defensively, ranking above the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The main question tonight is whether or not Markieff Morris will be cleared in time for this game. One other note to point out is that the Wizards are playing their second game of their back-to-back-to-back. With 13 other games on the schedule, there is no need to force any of them into your lineups tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Dallas Mavericks Orlando Magic
dallasnba Vegas Total 202.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 96.30 Team Pace 96.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 22 5 20 19 9 Opp. Season 12 8 9 27 7
Last 3 Weeks 29 4 23 23 13 Last 3 Weeks 7 11 4 24 23

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 29-26 — Road: 14-15 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavericks limped into the All-Star break, losing six of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on the Magic in what should be a very competitive game. The Mavericks are projected to score 100.5 points, which is nearly identical to their scoring average.

The Magic have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 10th and 18th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The issue here isn’t the matchup, it’s the fact that we have a 14-game slate. The Mavericks have a well-balanced offense and a deep rotation. There aren’t any great plays that really stand out in this matchup.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki

Nowitzki is not a player that I will be starting my lineups with tonight, but he could be a nice buy-low candidate on DraftKings. He is priced a little too cheap on DK and he comes into this game in good form. His minutes and projection are both up over his last five games, averaging 29.2 fantasy points in 33.5 minutes per contest.

FD — $6,800 — PF
DK — $6,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 20.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 29.2

Orlando Magic

Record: 23-29 — Home: 14-13 — Last 10: 3-7

The Magic have had a rough month of February and they traded away Tobias Harris in exchange for Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova. Tonight they host the Mavericks in a game that will likely get overlooked by most tonight. The Magic are 1-point favorites with their team total set at 101.5 points.

The Mavericks are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. New acquisitions, Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova, both practiced yesterday and are expected to be available for the Magic tonight. If for some reason they are inactive tonight, give a sizable boost to Elfrid Payton and Evan Fournier.

Elite Plays

Aaron Gordon

The Magic obviously like what they have with Gordon, as they traded away Tobias Harris. His minutes should be solidified moving forward, although he may slide over to small forward eventually. Gordon draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to power forwards. Oh, and Gordon was ROBBED in the slam dunk contest.

FD — $5,900 — PF
DK — $6,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 13.9
Min/Game — Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 29.5
FP/Game — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 26.4

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Vucevic played well before the All-Star break, averaging 37.9 fantasy points in last five games. His price is a bit high on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at a very playable $7,300 on DraftKings. He does draw a difficult matchup against Zaza Pachulia though, which is why he is far from a must play tonight.

FD — $8,300 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 37.9

New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

New York Knicks Brooklyn Nets
newyorknba Vegas Total 203.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 103.3 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 96.00 Team Pace 96.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 28 19 22 22 26 Opp. Season 17 11 10 8 14
Last 3 Weeks 14 3 19 30 26 Last 3 Weeks 20 16 18 5 7

New York Knicks

Record: 23-32 — Road: 9-17 — Last 10: 1-9

The Knicks have lost nine of their last ten games and open the second half of their season against the Nets. The Knicks are listed as 3.5-point favorites and by all accounts, this is a favorable matchup for fantasy production. New York is projected to score 103.3 points, which is 4.2 points higher than their scoring average.

As mentioned above, we always like targeting players that are facing the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. I also want to note that this will be the Knicks second game under interim coach Kurt Rambis. Kristaps Porzingis is usually on my radar in tournaments, but there are better options at power forward in tonight’s large slate.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Anthony has really played well recently, despite nursing a couple of injuries. He looked just fine during the All-Star game though, and should be close to 100% for tonight’s game against the Nets. There are a number of great superstar plays tonight, but Anthony is considerably cheaper than the Westbrook’s and Curry’s of the world.

FD — $9,100 — SF
DK — $8,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 27.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 37.1
FP/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 41.9

Secondary Plays

NONE

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 14-40 — Home: 10-21 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games, but are still in better form than the Knicks. The Nets are small favorites tonight at home in what is expected to be a close game throughout. Brooklyn’s team total of 99.8 points may not seem high, but it is 3.5 points above their scoring average.

The Knicks have been a decent defensive team this season, but their numbers have taken a hit over the last few weeks. They are now ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 20th in defensive efficiency.

Elite Plays

Brook Lopez

Brook has won the battle of the Slopez brothers so far in their careers. In their last four meetings, Lopez has averaged 24 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2.5 blocks/steals per game. His price is a little steep on FanDuel, but he is one of the top center options tonight on DraftKings. He offers both a high floor and a high ceiling in this matchup.

FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 20.4
Min/Game — Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 30.3

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young

On a smaller slate, Young would be considered an elite play. However, there are a number of ways you can go at power forward tonight. Young comes into this game in good form, averaging 34.1 fantasy points over his last five. His price is also appealing, as he is still priced under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

FD — $6,800 — PF
DK — $6,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 17.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 34.9
FP/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 34.1

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM

Miami Heat Atlanta Hawks
miaminba Vegas Total 197.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 94.3 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 94.70 Team Pace 99.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Justise Winslow Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 6 21 15 17 24 Opp. Season 2 3 18 2 8
Last 3 Weeks 2 12 17 29 10 Last 3 Weeks 4 22 13 18 19

Miami Heat

Record: 29-24 — Road: 13-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat received some terrible news about Chris Bosh. He is dealing with blood clots again, which is truly awful for one of the nicest guys in the league. His absence will give a nice boost to Hassan Whiteside, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Justise Winslow moving forward. Tonight the Heat are only projected to score 94.3 points against the Hawks in Atlanta. They have the lowest team total of the 28 teams in action tonight.

The Hawks have quietly climbed up the defensive rankings over the last month of play. They are now ranked seventh in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. In addition to Chris Bosh being out, the Heat will also be without Hassan Whiteside. He was suspended for elbowing Boban, who may have a future career in acting.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade

In the 34 games that Chris Bosh has missed over the last two seasons, Wade has a usage rate of 36.1. His usage rivals that of anyone in the NBA, including Russell Westbrook. Wade does have a sore knee, but still deserves consideration in a game where he will be the clear number one option offensively.

FD — $7,500 — SG
DK — $7,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 29.0
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 30.1
FP/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 29.4

Luol Deng

A lot of people like to target Justise Winslow. While the minute upside is there, he has one of the lowest fantasy production rates of anyone in the NBA that plays more than 25 minutes per game. I’d rather find the extra few hundred dollars to get Deng. He should see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight and he has a much higher usage rate than Winslow.

FD — $4,800 — SF
DK — $4,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 15.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 21.1

Amar’e Stoudemire

Even with Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside out tonight, we can’t expect more than around 25 minutes for Stoudemire tonight. We can expect a fairly high usage though, and he has been terrific in his spot starts this season. He is a decent source of value on a night where there aren’t any obvious punt plays.

FD — $4,300 — PF
DK — $4,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.8 | Last Five Games: 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 17.0
FP/Game — Season: 13.5 | Last Five Games: 18.7

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 31-24 — Home: 17-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hawks have lost five of their last ten games, but they decided to stick with their core group of players through the trade deadline. They did trade Shelvin Mack to the Jazz, but he was not a big part of their rotation. Tonight the Hawks host the Heat, who will be without their two best frontcourt players. The Hawks are projected to score 102.8 points, which is slightly above their scoring average.

We shouldn’t rely too heavily on the defensive statistics listed above for the Heat. They will be without two of their best defenders tonight. This will be a pace-down game for Atlanta, but the matchup is a lot better than the DvP rankings would suggest. Al Horford is an intriguing tournament play, but there are better center options for cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap

In a smaller slate, Millsap would be an elite play in all league formats. However, with so many options at each position, I see Millsap more as a lineup filler than a player that I’m going to start my teams with. Millsap appears to be fully over his injury and he comes into this game in good form, averaging 34.4 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $7,900 — PF
DK — $7,800 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 20.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 32.3
FP/Game — Season: 37.2 | Last Five Games: 34.4

Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Chicago Bulls
torontonba Vegas Total 201.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 98.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Derrick Rose E’Twaun Moore Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 27 15 25 18 27 Opp. Season 3 13 3 5 18
Last 3 Weeks 23 19 26 20 27 Last 3 Weeks 15 25 5 1 24

Toronto Raptors

Record: 35-17 — Road: 17-11 — Last 10: 8-2

The Raptors have won eight of their last ten games and are looking like the only threat to the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on a decimated Bulls’ team. The Raptors are listed as 6-point favorites in this matchup with their team total set at 103.5 points.

The Bulls have not fared well defensively, especially since Jimmy Butler went down with his injury. They have now allowed the fifth most fantasy points of any team in the NBA this season. The Raptors are in a good spot as a whole, but as usual with Toronto, there are only two players on my radar in this one.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

With Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry on the board, Lowry is going to go massively under-owned in both cash games and tournaments. He is my favorite tournament play on the board tonight. He comes into this game in great form, he was featured in the All-Star game, and he draws one of the best matchups on the schedule. The Bulls are ranked 27th against point guards this season.

FD — $8,700 — PG
DK — $8,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.5 | Last Five Games: 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 36.8 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 38.7 | Last Five Games: 36.3

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan has a great matchup as well, as the Bulls are missing their best perimeter defender in Jimmy Butler. DeRozan played well before the All-Star break, averaging 37 fantasy points per game in his previous five outings. DeRozan will fly under the radar tonight, making him an interesting play in tournaments.

FD — $8,300 — SG
DK — $7,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 28.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 37.0

Chicago Bulls

Record: 27-26 — Home: 16-10 — Last 10: 2-8

The Bulls have lost eight of their last ten games and are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight. They are listed as 6-point underdogs at home, which actually seems a bit low considering the recent trends of these two teams. The Raptors present a difficult fantasy matchup, as evidenced by the Bulls’ team total of 97.5 points.

The Raptors have been terrific defensively this season. They are ranked ninth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The good news for the Bulls’ players is that they are seeing a major boost in minutes and usage with all of the injuries to this team. Even though the matchup is less than ideal, there are still a few players on my radar in this one.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

Gasol didn’t play all that well last night, but he still finished with over 30 fantasy points and he didn’t even play in the fourth quarter. Gasol should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight and he should have a high usage rate with Jimmy Butler out. I would put him as an elite play, but it’s hard to pay a premium for Gasol on a night that features so many superstars.

FD — $9,000 — C
DK — $8,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 38.3 | Last Five Games: 43.2

Derrick Rose

Rose took himself out of last night’s game in the third quarter, but he did return to the game in the fourth. With Jimmy Butler out, we have seen his usage go through the roof and we can expect more of the same tonight. Rose is a borderline elite play tonight on FanDuel and is more of a secondary point guard option on DraftKings. The upside is certainly there, but he does draw one of the toughest matchups a point guard can have.

FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 30.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 38.8

E’Twaun Moore

Moore really struggled last night against the Cavaliers, scoring only seven fantasy points in 22 minutes of action. Everyone is going to jump ship tonight, but he still makes a fine value play on FanDuel. Prior to last night, Moore had scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of his previous three games.

FD — $4,300 — SG
DK — $5,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.1 | Last Five Games: 15.3
Min/Game — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 11.4 | Last Five Games: 25.2

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious