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NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-26 02:48:41

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Washington Wizards
minnesotanba Vegas Total 217.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 217.5
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 105.0 Team Proj. 112.5
Team Pace 97.60 Team Pace 100.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 15 18 24 7 8 Opp. Season 23 22 18 11 7
Last 3 Weeks 24 6 8 10 7 Last 3 Weeks 21 14 26 27 15

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 23-48 — Road: 11-25 — Last 10: 4-6

The Wolves have lost six of their last ten games, but have been one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule since the All-Star break. They have picked up their pace of play and have been involved in a number of shootouts. Tonight they head to Washington to take on the Wizards. The Wolves are projected to score 105 points, which is slightly below the average of the 18 teams in action tonight.

The Wizards appear to be a mediocre matchup for fantasy production, but their recent play makes them more of a below-average matchup. Over the last three weeks, the Wizards are ranked tenth or better against shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers. The good news is that the spread is only set at 7.5 points and it has a high total of 217.5 points.

Elite Plays

Zach LaVine
zach-lavine-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.3 38.3 11.0 38.2 10.9
FPPG (FD) 22.3 26.8 4.5 29.5 7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 17.1 -3.3 18.3 -2.1

I’d like to get some exposure to the Wolves tonight. This game has a very high total and the Wizards have struggled to defend wing players all season. While there isn’t a big difference between LaVine and Andrew Wiggins, I’ll give the edge to LaVine because of price. He comes into tonight’s game in great form, averaging 29.5 fantasy points in 38.2 minutes in his last five outings. He has also shown that he has a very high floor, making him a safe play in all league formats.

Secondary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
karl-anthony-towns-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 35.5 4.0 36.5 5.0
FPPG (FD) 35.6 40.8 5.2 41.6 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 20.1 21.1 1.0 21.1 1.0

Towns has been matchup-proof this season, but I generally don’t like to pick on Marcin Gortat. For that reason, I will only be using Towns in GPPs tonight. He certainly has the upside needed, as he is averaging 40.8 fantasy points over his last ten games. His price continues to rise across the industry, but he’s sitting at a very appealing price of $8,300 on DraftKings.

Ricky Rubio
ricky-rubio-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$6,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 30.4 -0.3 31.3 0.6
FPPG (FD) 30.7 33.3 2.6 37.0 6.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.5 16.6 0.1 18.3 1.9

After the first quarter that Rubio had against the Kings, I though he was going to drop another 50-burger. Unfortunately, he got into foul trouble and then couldn’t really get it going again until the fourth quarter. He has been playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 37 fantasy points over his last five games. There are a lot of great point guard options in tonight’s slate, but Rubio is a strong GPP consideration tonight.

Andrew Wiggins
andrew-wiggins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,400
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.2 35.8 0.6 38.0 2.8
FPPG (FD) 28.9 31.4 2.5 32.4 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 22.7 20.4 -2.2 19.2 -3.4

Wiggins is finally starting to show a little bit of consistency. Over his last five games, he is averaging 32.4 fantasy points in a whopping 38 minutes per contest. He draws the best matchup of the Wolves’ starting five, as the Wizards are ranked 24th against small forwards this season. Wiggins is in play in all league formats, but is far from a must play at his elevated price point.

Washington Wizards

Record: 35-36 — Home: 19-18 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games, but are still 2.5 games behind the eighth-seeded Pistons. They need to make a strong run over the next few weeks if they are going to make the postseason. Tonight they are listed as 7.5-point favorites against the Wolves. The Wizards are projected to score 112.5 points, which gives them the third highest team total and the second highest projected point differential tonight.

The Wolves have not fared well defensively this season, especially since they started playing at a faster pace. They are now ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency. Alan Anderson is listed as questionable tonight. If he is unable to suit up, give a small boost to Bradley Beal and Otto Porter.

Elite Plays

John Wall
john-wall-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,700 Salary:$9,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.29
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 37.0 1.0 37.6 1.6
FPPG (FD) 42.3 45.0 2.7 46.6 4.4
TO-Adj. Usage 24.9 26.0 1.1 25.3 0.4

We are getting to the point of the season where we want to get as much exposure as we can to the teams that have something to play for. The Wizards can’t afford to lose any more games, as they need to make up some serious ground in the East. We can expect Wall to play 38-40 minutes from here on out, which gives him a sizable fantasy boost. He has been in terrific form coming into tonight’s game and he draws a nice matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked 23rd against point guards.

Marcin Gortat
marcin-gortat-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,500
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.2 26.6 -3.6 29.6 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 29.7 26.3 -3.4 28.5 -1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.5 15.1 -0.4 14.6 -0.8

Gortat is a FanDuel-specific elite play tonight. At $6,500 on DraftKings, he is more of a secondary option. However, at $6,300 on FanDuel, he is one of my favorite targets at center. He has played at least 33 minutes in three of his last four games and he is coming off of a great game against the Hawks, scoring 38 fantasy points. Take advantage of the cheap price on a night where there aren’t any must plays at center.

Secondary Plays

Brad Beal
bradley-beal-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.92
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 29.6 -1.1 32.2 1.5
FPPG (FD) 26.1 23.9 -2.2 25.9 -0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 21.5 19.0 -2.6 18.3 -3.2

Beal burned a lot of people the other night against the Hawks. I almost had him in my lineup, but pivoted off of him at the last minute. I’m willing to overlook that one bad outing though, as he has played at least 31 minutes in each of his last four games. Beal is averaging 0.85 FP/min this season and he should see minutes in the low-30s tonight in a favorable matchup against the Wolves.

Otto Porter
otto-porter-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$5,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 31.5 1.1 33.9 3.5
FPPG (FD) 23.1 23.2 0.1 26.8 3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 13.9 -0.4 14.1 -0.2

Porter is in the same boat as Bradley Beal. I’m willing to overlook his one bad game against the Hawks, as he has otherwise been in very good form recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 26.8 fantasy points in 33.9 minutes per contest. Look for a nice bounce back game for Porter against the Wolves, who are ranked 26th against small forwards over the last three weeks of play.

Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Charlotte Hornets Detroit Pistons
charlottenba Vegas Total 205.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 11 7 5 13 10 Opp. Season 12 14 20 22 13
Last 3 Weeks 13 4 19 24 20 Last 3 Weeks 12 7 14 11 22

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 41-30 — Road: 14-19 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hornets have won eight of their last ten games and are currently tied with three other teams for the three seed in the Eastern Conference. They have everything to play for at this point, as does their opponent. The Hornets are listed as 2-point underdogs against the Pistons. They are only projected to score 101.8 points, which gives them the fourth lowest team total and the fourth lowest projected point differential.

The Pistons have actually been a tougher matchup than most people realize. On the season, they are ranked 14th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With a low team total, a difficult matchup, and the fact that this game is being played on the road, I will have very little exposure to the Hornets tonight. Marvin Williams is expected to return to the lineup, which means Frank Kaminsky will move back to the bench.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Detroit Pistons

Record: 38-34 — Home: 23-12 — Last 10: 7-3

The Pistons have won seven of their last ten games and currently hold a one and a half game lead over the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they host the visiting Hornets in a game that is expected to be close throughout. The Pistons are only projected to score 103.8 points, which gives them the sixth lowest team total and the seventh lowest projected point differential.

The Hornets have been solid defensively this season, ranking ninth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. This is a tough game to predict for fantasy purposes. While both teams have something to play for, they both have a top ten defense this season. With eight other games on the schedule, this may be a game that we can just gloss over for the most part. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Bullock are both listed as questionable, but both are tentatively expected to return tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.20 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 30.6 -2.5 32.1 -1.0
FPPG (FD) 39.6 35.4 -4.2 37.7 -1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 19.7 -0.7 21.0 0.6

Drummond has been in better form recently, but he still has a boom or bust nature to his game. He does perform better in slower paced games, but I still see him as more of a GPP play tonight against the Hornets. The upside is always there with Drummond, he just has a few too many duds to consider using in cash games.

Tobias Harris
tobias-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 33.1 0.2 32.6 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 27.0 28.1 1.1 29.0 1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 16.7 18.1 1.4 19.3 2.7

Harris isn’t a flashy play, but we can generally count on him to play 33-35 minutes and post somewhere in the range of 28-32 fantasy points. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked 22nd against power forwards this season. Harris is not a player that I am going to start my lineups with, but he’s not a bad play if you need someone in his price range.

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Orlando Magic Miami Heat
orlandonba Vegas Total 210.5 miaminba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Josh McRoberts Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 2 3 16 3 6 Opp. Season 18 5 16 21 19
Last 3 Weeks 4 15 25 2 14 Last 3 Weeks 17 8 13 19 30

Orlando Magic

Record: 29-42 — Road: 11-25 — Last 10: 2-8

The Magic have lost eight of their last ten games and are now 13 games below .500 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Heat in Miami. The Magic are only projected to score 101 points, which gives them the third lowest team total and the sixth lowest projected point differential tonight.

The Heat are always one of the worst matchups for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Heat have played at a slightly quicker pace since the All-Star break, but they still average the fourth fewest number of possessions per game. Nikola Vucevic and Ersan Ilyasova have both been ruled out of tonight’s contest. Victor Oladipo is listed as questionable. If he is unable to suit up, Mario Hezonja would draw the start at shooting guard. Elfrid Payton is expected to return to the starting lineup tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Elfrid Payton
elfrid-payton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,400 Salary:$5,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.2 25.2 -4.0 27.4 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 24.8 23.1 -1.7 25.8 1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 19.6 1.5 20.6 2.5

I originally had Victor Oladipo listed here, but now that he is questionable, he becomes an easy fade in all league formats. Payton is coming off of a triple-double against the Pistons and he was rewarded with his spot back in the starting lineup tonight. I don’t love the matchup against the Heat, but he comes into this game with a lot of confidence. He is an excellent GPP play tonight, especially if Oladipo is ruled out.

Miami Heat

Record: 41-30 — Home: 23-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are currently in a four way tie for third place in the Eastern Conference. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the reeling Magic. The Heat are listed as 8.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 109.5 points. They have the highest projected point differential on the board at +10.1.

The Magic have been one of the worst teams defensively over the last three weeks of play. On the season, they are now ranked below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. We should give the Heat offense a sizable boost as a whole tonight. Luol Deng made it through shootaround this morning and is expected to return to the lineup. I will be avoiding Dwyane Wade tonight. I typically only target him in games that feature a small spread, as the Heat look to get him rest whenever possible.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$8,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.21 FP/Min:1.30
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.9 30.5 1.6 29.4 0.5
FPPG (FD) 35.0 38.0 3.0 34.0 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 15.5 17.9 2.4 16.4 0.9

Whiteside’s minutes have been all over the map this season, but he has played 32 and 34 in his last two games. Anytime he plays 30+ minutes, he is going to have a great chance at reaching and exceeding value. He draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Magic, who have allowed the most fantasy points to centers over the last three weeks. Whiteside is playable in all league formats tonight, although he makes a slightly better GPP play given his inconsistent playing time.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 33.9 1.1 31.8 -1.0
FPPG (FD) 27.0 31.9 4.9 29.3 2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 18.4 21.0 2.6 20.5 2.1

Dragic is one of those players that has a lot of good fantasy outings, but rarely finds himself in any of my lineups. I like that the Heat have picked up their pace of play since the All-Star break, but there are always so many great plays at his position that it becomes a matter of opportunity cost. I’m certainly fine with playing him tonight against the Magic. I probably won’t be on him, but he is averaging 31.9 fantasy points in his last five games.

Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM

Milwaukee Bucks Atlanta Hawks
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 203.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 97.5 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 96.40 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jerryd Bayless Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 5 19 13 14 24 Opp. Season 6 25 25 17 21
Last 3 Weeks 5 18 7 8 11 Last 3 Weeks 3 3 21 6 29

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 30-42 — Road: 9-28 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games and have an ugly 9-28 record on the road this season. Tonight they travel to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. The Bucks are listed as 8.5-point underdogs with an implied team total of only 97.5 points. Milwaukee has the second lowest team total and the third lowest projected point differential on the board.

The Hawks are not a great rebounding team, but are otherwise a very difficult matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked sixth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. With some great matchups to exploit tonight, I am looking to fade the Bucks’ offense as a whole. Giannis Antetokounpo and Greg Monroe (specifically on DraftKings) are intriguing tournament plays, but both should be avoided in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 42-30 — Home: 23-13 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hawks have won eight of their last ten games and are now 42-30 overall. They are one of the four teams in the East that are tied for the three seed. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the Bucks at home. Atlanta is projected to score 106 points in this matchup, which gives them the seventh highest team total and the ninth highest projected point differential.

The Bucks have been a slightly favorable matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks have been tough against point guards, but are ranked 17th or worse against shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers this season.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.5 32.5 0.0 31.4 -1.1
FPPG (FD) 36.9 36.4 -0.5 33.0 -3.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.0 18.6 -1.4 17.9 -2.1

Millsap has scored at least 35 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He did have a dud against the Wizards mixed in there, but he has otherwise been in great form. With the Hawks fighting for homecourt advantage, I expect him to play 35+ minutes per game moving forward. Millsap is generally one of the safest cash game options at power forward and that remains the case tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked 17th against his position.

Secondary Plays

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$6,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 31.8 -0.3 32.3 0.2
FPPG (FD) 32.0 31.2 -0.8 33.8 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.8 16.6 -1.3 17.6 -0.2

Horford is not a flashy play, but this is a matchup that should suit his strengths. Greg Monroe is not a good low post defender and he really struggles against bigs that can step out and knock down jumpers. Over the last three weeks, only the Magic have allowed more fantasy points to centers. Horford is a little more expensive than I’d like to pay for him, but he makes a nice low-owned tournament play tonight.

Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Houston Rockets
torontonba Vegas Total 212.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd 0.0 Vegas Sprd 0.0
Team Proj. 106.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 95.40 Team Pace 100.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 13 23 30 29 16 Opp. Season 3 13 7 5 9
Last 3 Weeks 16 25 24 23 23 Last 3 Weeks 1 11 20 7 1

Toronto Raptors

Record: 48-22 — Road: 20-14 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and are now only two games behind the Cavaliers for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Houston to take on the Rockets in what is expected to be a close game throughout. The Raptors are projected to score 106 points, which gives them the seventh highest team total and the eighth highest projected point differential.

The Rockets have not fared well defensively this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above and they play at the seventh fastest pace of any team in the NBA. We should give the Raptors’ offense a sizable boost as a whole. Kyle Lowry is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Make sure to keep an eye on the news throughout the day though, as Toronto plans to rest players down the stretch.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.3 39.1 1.8 37.2 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 39.8 40.7 0.9 43.1 3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 22.6 22.6 0.1 24.4 1.9

Lowry didn’t play on Wednesday, as the Raptors elected to give him a night off. He should be fired up and ready to go for tonight’s game against the Rockets. While Patrick Beverley has been playing better defense in the second half of the season, the Rockets are still only ranked 13th against point guards. Lowry played pretty well against Houston earlier this season, scoring 38.2 fantasy points in 38 minutes of action.

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.3 37.6 1.3 37.4 1.1
FPPG (FD) 35.2 37.0 1.8 33.1 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 26.8 0.8 26.0 0.0

DeRozan has a better matchup than Kyle Lowry tonight, but whenever their prices start to merge, I generally side with Lowry. Both are in play for me tonight though, as the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards. With the Raptors still alive for the top seed in the East, I expect DeRozan to play a full complement of minutes tonight.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Houston Rockets

Record: 35-37 — Home: 19-16 — Last 10: 5-5

The Rockets have lost five of their last ten games, but are still tied with the Jazz for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Every game from here on out is key for Houston and we can expect big minutes from their starters the rest of the way. The Rockets are listed as 2-point favorites tonight against the Raptors. They are projected to score 106 points, which is the seventh highest team total on the board.

The Raptors have been stout defensively this season, ranking seventh or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Even though this isn’t the best matchup on the board, the Rockets are still strong plays given the situation. It also helps that they are playing at home.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,800 Salary:$10,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.8 38.1 0.3 40.3 2.5
FPPG (FD) 47.4 49.6 2.3 53.0 5.6
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 26.8 -0.6 25.5 -2.0

Harden is my favorite play on the slate tonight. That is really saying something when you consider the fact that DeMarcus Cousins is facing the Suns at home. I’m giving Harden a small edge, as the Rockets are in must-win mode, after losing to the Jazz the other night. Harden should play 40+ minutes tonight and even though the matchup isn’t great, he is going to 20+ shots and have a usage rate through the roof.

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard
dwight-howard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$6,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 33.3 0.6 34.1 1.4
FPPG (FD) 33.5 32.7 -0.8 27.1 -6.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 12.1 -2.8 9.6 -5.2

Howard is a little too expensive on FanDuel, but is worth a look in all league formats tonight on DraftKings. If you take out his game against the Clippers, he has been in pretty solid form recently. He played well against the Raptors earlier this season, scoring 21 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. The only knock on Howard is how uninvolved in the offense he is. He has a TO-adjusted usage rate under ten over his last five games.

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Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious