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NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 25th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-25 22:24:54

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Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM

Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs
memphisnba Vegas Total 192.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 192.0
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 89.5 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 95.80 Team Pace 96.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ray McCallum Tony Allen Matt Barnes JaMychal Green Chris Andersen Proj. Starter Tony Parker Kevin Martin Kyle Anderson LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 4 1 1 2 3 Opp. Season 9 4 14 12 4
Last 3 Weeks 2 23 1 1 9 Last 3 Weeks 18 13 18 26 24

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 41-31 — Road: 16-20 — Last 10: 4-6

The Grizzlies have somehow won four of their last ten games, despite rolling out what is the equivalent of a Triple-A team in baseball. They will have their hands full tonight, as they take on the Spurs in San Antonio. Even though the Spurs are resting players, the Grizzlies are still listed as 13-point underdogs. They have the lowest team total and the lowest projected point differential tonight.

The Spurs have the best defense in the entire NBA. They are ranked first or second in all four of the defensive categories above. To make matters worse, the Grizzlies are 13-point underdogs. Zach Randolph has been ruled out of tonight’s game. While that does mean a start for JaMychal Green, I will be avoiding the Grizzlies’ players in what should be a blowout.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 60-11 — Home: 36-0 — Last 10: 8-2

The Spurs have won eight of their last ten games and are now 60-11 overall. Tonight they host the Grizzlies in a game that could easily be over by halftime. The Spurs are projected to score 102.5 points. While that is not a high team total, the Spurs are going to rest four of their players tonight.

The Grizzlies have been an average matchup for fantasy production recently. While they aren’t as stout defensively as they were earlier in the season, they are still a neutral matchup. The Spurs have some interesting plays tonight though, as Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Patty Mills, and Boris Diaw have all been ruled out. Kevin Martin and Kyle Anderson are currently projected to start at shooting guard and small forward.

Elite Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge
lamarcus-aldridge-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.05 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 32.4 2.0 30.7 0.3
FPPG (FD) 32.0 38.3 6.4 33.0 1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 21.9 23.6 1.8 23.8 1.9

With the Spurs resting so many players, Aldridge should be the focal point of their offense. I always hesitate a little when targeting Spurs’ players in games that feature a double-digit spread, but you have to love the spot for Aldridge tonight. The Grizzlies’ frontcourt is decimated and Aldridge is averaging 38.3 fantasy points over his last ten games.

Secondary Plays

Tony Parker
tony-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.3 28.5 1.2 28.0 0.7
FPPG (FD) 23.3 22.8 -0.5 25.3 2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 19.0 17.4 -1.5 18.2 -0.8

Parker is an interesting tournament play tonight, especially on DraftKings. He basically needs 23 fantasy points to reach value, a feat that he is certainly capable of against the likes of Ray McCallum and Jordan Farmar. There is speculation that Popovich may elect to rest Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili tomorrow. If that’s the case, he may give them a few extra minutes tonight.

Tim Duncan
tim-duncan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,900 Salary:$4,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.8 23.1 -1.7 21.3 -3.5
FPPG (FD) 24.1 23.1 -1.0 21.0 -3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 13.6 -0.9 12.3 -2.2

Duncan is in the same boat as Tony Parker – he makes an excellent tournament play tonight, especially on DraftKings. His production has been all over the map recently, but he did flash some upside with a 42 fantasy point outing against the Hornets the other night. I don’t think I can pull the trigger for cash games, but he is one of my favorite GPP plays on the board.

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Phoenix Suns Sacramento Kings
phoenixnba Vegas Total 220.0 sacramentonba Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 106.5 Team Proj. 113.5
Team Pace 100.40 Team Pace 102.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Brandon Knight Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Jon Leuer Alex Len Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo James Anderson Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 25 29 22 30 20 Opp. Season 29 30 27 16 11
Last 3 Weeks 14 12 11 30 16 Last 3 Weeks 26 27 9 18 26

Phoenix Suns

Record: 20-51 — Road: 7-28 — Last 10: 5-5

The Suns have been playing their best basketball of the season, winning five of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Sacramento to take on the Kings in what should be one of the best fantasy games to target in this slate. The Suns are projected to score 106.5 points tonight, which is six points above their scoring average for the season.

Whenever the Kings are on the schedule, we can basically bank on there being at least three or four viable fantasy options against them. They are ranked dead last in points allowed per game this season and they play at the fastest pace of any team. The Suns’ offense gets a sizable boost as a whole tonight. Tyson Chandler has already been ruled out, which means another start for Jon Leuer. Alex Len is the only starter that I’m not interested in from the Suns. He has been too inconsistent and will have to deal with DeMarcus Cousins.

Elite Plays

Brandon Knight
brandon-knight-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,200 Salary:$7,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 34.2 -1.8 35.5 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 31.9 33.3 1.4 33.7 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 23.0 0.8 23.4 1.1

I was glad to see Knight have a big game against the Lakers. I touted him in the Grind Down and in my other columns and he finished with 50 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. The best part is that he still didn’t shoot 50% from the floor (9/19). Hopefully, he can crack that mark tonight against the Kings, who are arguably the worst defensive team in the NBA. Even though his price has come up, Knight is still an elite play in all league formats.

Devin Booker
devin-booker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.77
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.5 38.0 11.5 36.8 10.3
FPPG (FD) 18.8 33.2 14.4 28.8 10.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.3 23.1 4.8 21.3 3.0

Booker has been playing some great basketball recently, averaging 33.2 fantasy points over his last ten games. He draws an elite matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 29th against shooting guards this season. His price has come up across the industry, but I slightly prefer him over the other names at his price point. We want to get as much exposure against the Kings as we can.

Jon Leuer
jon-leuer-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.0 17.5 -1.5 23.1 4.1
FPPG (FD) 18.1 19.0 0.9 25.8 7.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.7 17.5 0.8 17.6 0.9

Leuer carried a lot of fantasy lineups the other night against the Lakers, finishing with 38.8 fantasy points in 41 minutes of action. Earl Watson praised his play recently and with Tyson Chandler out, we can safely project him for 30+ minutes tonight against the Kings. I always hate putting too much stock into players that are coming off of monster games, but Leuer is going to be so highly owned that it’s hard to fade him in cash games. It also helps that the Kings are ranked dead last against power forwards.

Secondary Plays

P.J. Tucker
p.j.-tucker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$4,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.63 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 32.4 1.8 37.5 6.9
FPPG (FD) 19.2 21.9 2.7 30.2 11.1
TO-Adj. Usage 10.3 11.8 1.5 13.4 3.1

I never like to roster Tucker, but his minutes are trending upward and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. Anytime we can project a player to see close to 35 minutes against the Kings, he has to at least be on our radar. He is the king of 15 fantasy point outings, but you have to like the upside that he provides tonight.

Sacramento Kings

Record: 27-44 — Home: 14-20 — Last 10: 2-8

The Kings have lost eight of their last ten games, but are listed as 7-point favorites tonight against the Suns. Hopefully this game will stay relatively close, because it should be a gold mine for fantasy production. The Kings are projected to score 113.5 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the fourth highest projected point differential on the board.

The Suns have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo are both listed as probable for tonight’s game. Ben McLemore is listed as questionable. Given the matchup and the fact that they are playing at home, we should give a sizable boost to their offense as a whole.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins
demarcus-cousins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,000 Salary:$10,300
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:1.38 FP/Min:1.50
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 36.2 1.4 35.4 0.6
FPPG (FD) 47.9 52.6 4.8 50.1 2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 29.0 27.4 -1.7 25.7 -3.3

When ranking superstars tonight, I have James Harden, Cousins, and then Stephen Curry. All three are in great spots and Cousins arguably has the most upside of the bunch. He has scored at least 45 fantasy points in each of his last ten games and he should benefit with Tyson Chandler out for the Suns. I’m going to do everything I can to get both Harden and Cousins in my lineups tonight.

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo
rajon-rondo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 36.4 1.0 34.9 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 36.9 31.9 -5.0 32.9 -4.0
TO-Adj. Usage 17.1 15.9 -1.2 16.1 -1.0

When DeMarcus Cousins was ruled out the other night, I decided to roster Rondo in my cash games. It was a calculated risk, but it paid off. I probably won’t be looking his way in cash games tonight, but he is one of my favorite GPP plays. The Suns are ranked 29th against point guards this season and Rondo looked focused and engaged the other night against the Wolves.

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Dallas Mavericks Golden State Warriors
dallasnba Vegas Total 223.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 223.5
Vegas Sprd 14.0 Vegas Sprd -14.0
Team Proj. 104.8 Team Proj. 118.8
Team Pace 96.90 Team Pace 102.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Raymond Felton Wesley Matthews Dirk Nowitzki Salah Mejri Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 26 10 12 15 22 Opp. Season 14 12 9 27 17
Last 3 Weeks 23 17 4 20 19 Last 3 Weeks 27 22 10 25 28

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 35-36 — Road: 15-19 — Last 10: 2-8

The Mavericks have lost eight of their last ten games and are dangerously close to falling out of the playoffs. If they lose tonight, they will be tied with the Jazz and possibly behind the Rockets (if they beat Toronto). This is certainly not the matchup that you want to have when you are in must win mode. The Mavericks are 14-point underdogs tonight against the Warriors.

The Warriors are always a tricky matchup. When the game stays close, we have seen players perform well against Golden State. However, when the Warriors turn it on and start blowing teams out, it becomes nearly impossible for players to reach value. Given the size of the slate, I see the Mavericks as better tournament plays than cash game plays. Rick Carlisle is a veteran coach and if they get down big early, he will save his guys for the next game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki
dirk-nowitzki-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.4 33.8 2.4 34.3 2.9
FPPG (FD) 31.1 39.5 8.3 42.9 11.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 24.7 2.8 25.4 3.5

Nowitzki has turned back the hands of time. Over his last five games, he is averaging a ridiculous 42.9 fantasy points in just under 35 minutes per contest. One of those big games came against the Warriors, but that game was played in Dallas. Nowitzki is sitting at a very playable $7,200 on DraftKings, but given the large spread, he is far from a must play at power forward.

Wesley Matthews
wesley-matthews-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,100 Salary:$4,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.65
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.3 34.9 1.6 35.2 1.9
FPPG (FD) 20.0 18.6 -1.4 18.9 -1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 12.6 -2.1 12.0 -2.7

Matthews is coming off of his best game in a while. Many will point to the fact that it was against his former team, but I think it had more to do with his increased role in the offense. The Mavs have said that they are going to lean heavily on Matthews with Chandler Parsons out. Matthews is borderline cash game playable tonight, but as with the rest of the Mavs, he could see limited minutes in a blowout.

Salah Mejri
salah-mejri-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$3,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 10.4 14.1 3.7 21.2 10.8
FPPG (FD) 10.0 17.3 7.3 24.4 14.4
TO-Adj. Usage 11.8 15.2 3.4 15.0 3.2

After posting 43 and 30 fantasy points in his last two games, I expect Mejri’s ownership to be inflated tonight. For me, it all hinges on whether or not he will draw another start. The Warriors often force teams to play small and if that’s the case again tonight, Mejri will not see 30+ minutes like he has in the last two games. For me, I see him as more of a GPP play, but even then, his ownership will be high.

Golden State Warriors

Record: 64-7 — Home: 33-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors have won nine of their last ten games and are now 64-7 overall. They are going for two records the rest of the way – the number of regular season wins and the undefeated streak at home. They draw a fairly easy matchup tonight against the struggling Mavericks. The Warriors are listed as 14-point favorites with an implied team total of 118.8 points.

The Mavericks have been a mediocre matchup all season, but have really struggled defensively over the last few weeks. If you look at the DvP table above, you will see that Dallas is ranked 22nd or worse against point guards, shooting guards, power forwards, and centers during that stretch. While I expect the Warriors to score at will tonight, I am a little concerned about the potential blowout.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry
stephen-curry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.41 FP/Min:1.55
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.9 33.7 -0.2 34.5 0.6
FPPG (FD) 47.7 46.7 -1.0 46.9 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 27.5 -0.3 27.8 0.0

Curry is obviously a strong play every time he takes the floor, but with James Harden and DeMarcus Cousins in such great spots, I will only be using Curry in tournaments. He has as much upside as the other two, but is more likely to see limited minutes in a game that could potentially turn into a blowout.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.0 32.6 -0.4 32.9 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 30.9 32.7 1.8 34.3 3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 22.6 0.2 23.0 0.7

Thompson has shown great upside, but he also throws in a dud every now and then. With the spread set at 14 points, he is much better play in GPPs than he is in cash games. I see the appeal, but prefer to spend up for James Harden or DeMar DeRozan, or go down to Devin Booker or Zach LaVine.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Denver Nuggets Los Angeles Lakers
denvernba Vegas Total 214.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 108.5 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Darrell Arthur Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 28 28 19 28 Opp. Season 17 27 19 24 14
Last 3 Weeks 19 30 12 9 17 Last 3 Weeks 9 26 28 21 2

Denver Nuggets

Record: 30-42 — Road: 13-23 — Last 10: 6-4

The Nuggets have been playing some solid basketball, winning six of their last ten games. They draw another winnable matchup tonight against the Lakers in Los Angeles. This is another game that could be a gold mine for fantasy production. The Nuggets are projected to score 108.5 points, which gives them the fifth highest team total and the fifth highest projected point differential on the board.

The Lakers are always one of the best matchups in daily fantasy, especially when the game is expected to stay competitive. On the season, they are ranked 26th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Kenneth Faried is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Darrell Arthur would make an excellent value play at power forward. The main problem with the Nuggets is that they are coached by Mike Malone. He is constantly messing with rotations, which makes predicting minutes very difficult. Will Barton and D.J. Augustin make interesting GPP plays here, while Gary Harris seems like a safe cash game option.

Elite Plays

Nikola Jokic
nikola-jokic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$5,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.18
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.9 24.8 3.9 24.4 3.5
FPPG (FD) 23.0 30.5 7.5 28.9 5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 17.8 20.0 2.2 20.6 2.8

Given the lack of standout plays at center tonight, Jokic is playable in both cash games and tournaments. His minutes are always in flux, but he could easily exceed value in 25 minutes against the Lakers, who are ranked 28th against centers and 26th in rebounding differential this season.

Secondary Plays

Emmanuel Mudiay
emmanuel-mudiay-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 31.3 0.9 30.7 0.3
FPPG (FD) 24.8 27.7 2.9 24.5 -0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 21.5 24.1 2.6 22.4 0.9

Mudiay will garner a lot of attention today, as he is coming off of a 47 fantasy point outing against the Sixers. This would be the perfect spot to fade him with an inflated ownership, but since he is playing the Lakers, you have to at least consider him. On the season, no team has allowed more fantasy points to point guards than the Lakers.

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 15-56 — Home: 10-25 — Last 10: 3-7

The Lakers have lost seven of their last ten games and are listed as 3-point underdogs tonight at home against the Nuggets. This should be an uptempo game and the total of 214 points is very high considering the fact that these are two inefficient offenses. The Lakers are projected to score 105.5 points, which gives them the third highest projected point differential.

The Nuggets are ranked inside the top ten in rebounding differential, but are otherwise a great matchup for fantasy production. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable for tonight. Don’t be surprised if he ends up resting, as he gears up for the last few weeks in his NBA career. If Bryant is ruled out, Jordan Clarkson, D’Angelo Russell, and Lou Williams would all see a small boost. Even then, they are tournament plays at best tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Julius Randle
julius-randle-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.9 29.5 1.6 28.7 0.8
FPPG (FD) 26.4 29.8 3.4 28.1 1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 18.1 0.0 16.8 -1.3

Randle is really the only Lakers’ player that we have been able to trust over the last couple of weeks. He doesn’t have the minute upside that we are often looking for, but the Nuggets are ranked 24th against power forwards this season. At his price point, Randle is a safe cash game target tonight at home.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious