NBA Grind Down: Friday, October 27th

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NOTE: The Grind Down update can be found in the CourtReport Live Blog

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Charlotte Hornets
houstonnba Vegas Total 212.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Implied Team Total 107.8 Implied Team Total 104.8
Pace Projection +/- 0.0 Pace Projection +/- -1.8
Projected Starters James Harden Eric Gordon Luc Mbah a Moute Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Projected Starters Kemba Walker Jeremy Lamb Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 14 10 24 5 25 DvP 17 19 6 13 20
DRPM -1.14 -0.88 2.10 -0.13 2.92 DRPM -1.81 -0.13 2.19 -0.16 1.25

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Trevor Ariza (Out)
Nene Hilario (Out)

We have a smaller slate than usual for a Friday, but the way I see it, any basketball is good basketball. The Rockets are playing a little short-handed, as they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets. Strictly from a matchup perspective, this isn’t the best spot for Houston. The Hornets like to slow the pace of the game down and on the season, are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. As you can see from the new implied total chart above, the Rockets are projected to score 107.8 points, which is below the average of the 14 teams in action tonight.

James Harden has underwhelmed through the first five games. This was something I expected heading into the season, but only because I thought he’d be sharing the ball with Chris Paul. With Paul out, I’ve expected bigger and better from the bearded one. The good news is that he still owns a 33% true usage rate and a price point that is lower than we’ve seen in the past. Harden is viable in all formats, although I’m looking to use him more on FanDuel, where we have to roster two shooting guards.

Eric Gordon doesn’t get the same volume of rebounds or assists, but he’s basically been Harden-light on offense. He has a massive 30% usage rate this season and he has taken at least 20 shots in three of the four games that Paul has missed. He doesn’t have an elite matchup or an appealing price point, but he’s still an excellent tournament play as long as he’s seeing this type of usage. Luc Mbah a Moute played 36 minutes on Wednesday with Trevor Ariza out. While he doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling, he’s a safe cash game value if you need the savings at small forward.

Nene Hilario has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest, so we can expect big minutes for Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, and P.J. Tucker. Capela draws the worst matchup of the three (Dwight Howard), but he also has the highest floor and the highest ceiling. There aren’t many spots where we can feel good about him playing at least 30 minutes. The price has come up, but he’s still viable in tournaments. Anderson is volatile, but the price is right and if we carry over the trend from last season, we want to target him on the road. Tucker is an interesting bounce-back candidate, after a quiet game against the Sixers.

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 94.4 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.0 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
James Harden $11,500 $11,000 $23,300 46.6 36.3 1.28 33.2% 14 -1.14
Eric Gordon $7,100 $6,900 $15,300 31.2 31.3 1.00 29.7% 10 -0.88
Luc Mbah a Moute $4,000 $3,700 $8,400 14.8 27.6 0.54 11.2% 24 2.10
Ryan Anderson $4,400 $4,400 $9,500 19.6 29.6 0.66 12.6% 5 -0.13
Clint Capela $7,700 $6,500 $13,400 37.8 24.7 1.53 18.6% 25 2.92
P.J. Tucker $4,600 $4,000 $9,600 18.3 29.0 0.63 9.6% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden (FD)

Secondary Plays – James Harden (DK & FDRFT), Eric Gordon, Luc Mbah a Moute, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, P.J. Tucker


Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Cody Zeller (Out)

While the Rockets have a difficult matchup in a pace-down game, the opposite is true for the Hornets. Mike D’Antoni loves to push the pace with his offense and the Rockets aren’t a particularly good defensive team. Their numbers on the season aren’t terrible, but it’s only a matter of time before they drop in the rankings. Charlotte comes into the game with an implied total of 104.8 points, which is considerably higher than their season average.

My Kemba Walker lineups on Wednesday were looking awfully bleak after the third quarter. He salvaged his performance by scoring 14 points and grabbing three rebounds in the fourth quarter. Walker is one of those players that is content to watch his teammates take shots until they need him to take the game over. While that can be frustrating from a DFS perspective, the Hornets will need a big game from him tonight. The Rockets don’t have a true point guard at the moment and both James Harden and Eric Gordon have negative DRPM grades from last season.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist returned to the Hornets’ lineup, but only played ten minutes against the Nuggets. Charlotte will bring him along slowly, which means Jeremy Lamb will continue to play 32-34 minutes a night. There is a good chance that Lamb will be defending Harden for a large part of this game (which brings foul trouble into play), but we have to like his matchup on offense. Marvin Williams is the starter in name, but Frank Kaminsky is the power forward to own in this offense. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in three straight games, averaging 31 minutes during that stretch.

I have mixed feelings on Dwight Howard tonight, but I’m leaning toward using him in my core. He has new life in Charlotte, grabbing 15 rebounds in every game so far this season. The best way to keep Dwight motivated is to keep him involved and we know the Hornets love the pick and roll. Howard’s price is still too cheap across the industry, especially on DraftKings. While the matchup against Clint Capela isn’t ideal, he has the revenge narrative in his back pocket if he needs it.

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (19 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,000 $7,800 $12,700 33.3 35.0 0.95 23.9% 17 -1.81
Jeremy Lamb $6,400 $5,700 $11,300 26.3 32.4 0.81 20.6% 19 -0.13
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,500 $4,100 $7,900 2.0 10.6 0.19 22.7% 6 2.19
Marvin Williams $4,000 $3,900 $7,700 13.8 22.9 0.60 14.3% 13 -0.16
Dwight Howard $7,900 $7,100 $12,300 38.7 31.3 1.24 15.9% 20 1.25
Frank Kaminsky $5,400 $5,100 $9,900 25.8 29.5 0.87 19.7% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard (DK), Jeremy Lamb (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lamb (Cash), Dwight Howard (FD & FDRFT), Frank Kaminsky


San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Orlando Magic
sanantonionba Vegas Total 207.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread -5.5 Vegas Spread 5.5
Implied Team Total 106.5 Implied Team Total 101.0
Pace Projection +/- 5.4 Pace Projection +/- -4.3
Projected Starters Dejounte Murray Danny Green Kyle Anderson LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Projected Starters D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 28 14 21 28 15 DvP 2 15 1 7 7
DRPM -3.28 -1.05 -1.20 -0.61 2.26 DRPM -0.74 2.10 2.92 1.25 1.43

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (Out)

The Spurs have been without their best player and they still haven’t lost a game. Kawhi Leonard is nearing a return, but he’s already been ruled out of tonight’s contest against the Magic. I’ve been off of the Spurs for the most part this season, but this is one of their best matchups to date. Orlando is currently ranked fourth in pace of play and 24th in points allowed per game, which is a perfect recipe for fantasy production. San Antonio is listed as a 5.5-point favorite with an implied total of 106.5 points.

Point guard is the most coveted roster spot in my lineups. There are always more options than at any other position, so we can’t afford to make a mistake. I really want to play Dejounte Murray tonight against the Magic. He is averaging 1.07 FP/min this season and draws a perfect matchup against D.J. Augustin, who had a -3.28 DRPM last season. The problem with Murray is the playing time. He has yet to play more than 28 minutes this season, which makes him a tough sell at his price point. I’ll have some exposure in tournaments, but he’s not a core play for me until he sees 30 minutes consistently.

Danny Green has played very well in Kawhi Leonard absence, averaging 31.5 fantasy points in 33 minutes per game. He’s not a player that anyone likes to roster in DFS, which has led to low ownership on a regular basis. He deserves consideration in tournaments in a pace-up game against Orlando. I prefer Green over Kyle Anderson, who is similarly priced, but has a lower usage rate and a lower FP/min. Rudy Gay has been a nice addition off the bench, but 24 minutes a game isn’t going to cut it at his price point.

LaMarcus Aldridge has been a man amongst boys this season in the post. He has a usage rate of 28% and is averaging 46 fantasy points per game. With Leonard out of the lineup, Aldridge is the focal point of their offense. He draws a nice matchup tonight against Aaron Gordon (-0.61 DRPM) and the Magic, who are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards. When comparing Aldridge to Kristaps Porzingis in this slate, they have similar ceilings, but Aldridge may have the higher floor.

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.3 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 107.2 (4 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Dejounte Murray $5,500 $5,300 $9,900 28.0 26.1 1.07 20.0% 28 -3.28
Danny Green $5,500 $5,400 $9,400 31.5 32.5 0.97 17.1% 14 -1.05
Kyle Anderson $5,000 $4,700 $8,500 23.1 29.3 0.79 15.2% 21 -1.20
LaMarcus Aldridge $9,000 $8,200 $13,300 46.3 36.5 1.27 27.9% 28 -0.61
Pau Gasol $5,700 $4,900 $9,500 24.8 22.4 1.11 18.9% 15 2.26
Rudy Gay $5,500 $5,000 $9,800 26.2 23.7 1.11 22.0% N/A N/A
Patty Mills $3,300 $3,400 $6,500 9.7 22.6 0.43 11.4% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Dejounte Murray (GPP), Danny Green (GPP)


Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Elfrid Payton (Out)

The Magic are 3-1 to start the season and are averaging the third most points per game. Call it a hunch, but I don’t see them sustaining this type of efficiency. Perhaps two meetings with the Nets have inflated their numbers a bit. Tonight they draw a truly awful fantasy matchup against the Spurs, who play at the fourth slowest pace and who are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

Targeting players against the Spurs is not a tradition of mine. If you decided to fade every single player against the Spurs and the Jazz for the rest of the year, you’d probably be better off than trying to find a play to use every now and then. Even though this isn’t a massive slate, I want no part of the Magic tonight. Their implied total of 101 points is the second lowest on the board and a whopping 18 points below their season average. I’m sure some will be drawn to Nikola Vucevic price tag on DraftKings ($6,900), but Pau Gasol is a better defender (1.43 DRPM) than people give him credit for.

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 93.3 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.0 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 11.3 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (27 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
D.J. Augustin $6,300 $5,700 $11,500 26.0 23.8 1.09 17.7% 2 -0.74
Evan Fournier $7,600 $6,100 $13,000 38.9 33.2 1.17 22.8% 15 2.10
Terrence Ross $4,100 $4,000 $7,700 19.3 27.9 0.69 15.2% 1 2.92
Aaron Gordon $8,500 $6,800 $14,500 47.1 35.5 1.33 21.2% 7 1.25
Nikola Vucevic $8,700 $6,900 $14,500 46.8 31.7 1.48 23.3% 7 1.43

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None


Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets New York Knicks
brooklynnba Vegas Total 220.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Implied Team Total 109.0 Implied Team Total 111.5
Pace Projection +/- -2.4 Pace Projection +/- 7.9
Projected Starters Spencer Dinwiddie Caris LeVert DeMarre Carroll Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Timofey Mozgov Projected Starters Ramon Sessions Courtney Lee Tim Hardaway Kristaps Porzingis Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 27 1 25 3 26 DvP 24 17 27 29 8
DRPM -1.47 -1.34 -1.35 1.66 -0.91 DRPM 0.22 -0.76 1.09 1.36 0.90

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries

D’Angelo Russell (Questionable)

The Nets lead the NBA in scoring this season. I repeat, the Nets lead the NBA in scoring this season. They also have as many wins as the Cavaliers, Celtics, and Wizards. They will always be one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule, because they love to push the pace and they give up a lot of points per game. While the Knicks have played at a slow pace thus far, they have still allowed the ninth most points per game. This could turn into another shootout and is my favorite game to stack when it comes to DFS.

D’Angelo Russell was originally listed as doubtful for this game, but he has been upgraded to questionable. He’ll likely end up being a game-time decision, but hopefully we’ll know his status before lineups lock. If he’s active, we can fire him up in tournaments at low ownership. He is currently averaging 1.32 FP/min with a usage rate of 33%. If Russell is ruled out, Spencer Dinwiddie would step in and become one of the best values of the slate. In his spot start on Wednesday, Dinwiddie played 31 minutes and scored 38 fantasy points against the Cavaliers. I want exposure to the Nets’ starting point guard tonight, so hopefully the Nets will be kind to us and let us know their plan for Russell.

If Russell is ruled out, Caris LeVert, DeMarre Carroll, and Allen Crabbe would all see small usage and/or playing time bumps. Of the three, I prefer LeVert, who should be able to bounce back after a poor performance against the Cavaliers. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson played 34 minutes the other night, which was seven more than he had seen all season. I would love to play him here, but we can’t rely on him playing that much every night. The Nets are making an effort to keep everyone under 30 minutes per game this season.

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (22 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $5,000 $5,200 $9,000 22.7 22.0 1.03 21.2% 27 -1.47
Caris LeVert $5,800 $5,400 $10,800 25.8 28.9 0.89 19.9% 1 -1.34
DeMarre Carroll $6,500 $5,500 $9,900 33.0 28.3 1.17 18.8% 25 -1.35
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $6,400 $5,200 $9,000 30.1 26.2 1.15 17.8% 3 1.66
Timofey Mozgov $3,000 $3,100 $6,000 10.3 15.4 0.67 9.1% 26 -0.91
Allen Crabbe $4,500 $4,900 $9,000 22.5 25.0 0.90 17.2% N/A N/A
Trevor Booker $5,300 $5,600 $10,800 26.2 24.2 1.08 19.1% N/A N/A
D’Angelo Russell $8,000 $7,700 $13,000 37.8 28.7 1.32 33.0% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (if Russell is out), D’Angelo Russell (GPP – if active)

Secondary Plays – Caris LeVert, DeMarre Carroll, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK), Allen Crabbe (FD)


New York Knicks

Notable Injuries

Frank Ntilikina (Probable)

In the least surprising news possible, the Knicks have not played well this season. They are the only team in basketball without a win. While the Nets sport a decent record, they are a very beatable team, so perhaps the Knicks can get the monkey off their back tonight. When it comes to matchups, you can’t find a better one than Brooklyn. On the season, they are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Knicks have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is 18 more than their average points per game.

Tonight is the night to load up on the Knicks. If you don’t do it now, you might have to wait a while for another matchup like this one. Even with Frank Ntilikina back in the mix, Ramon Sessions should see minutes in the mid to upper 20s at a price below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been awful in his first three games back in New York and believe me, I’ve taken the brunt of it with my lineups. I’m giving him one more chance to redeem himself tonight. This is basically the perfect scenario — ideal matchup against Brooklyn and he’s burned bridges, which will keep ownership down.

Kristaps Porzingis forgot to show up against the Celtics, but he could be the difference between winning and losing in tournaments tonight. He owns a 29% usage rate and he gets to face a Nets’ defense that is ranked 29th against power forwards. His price is below $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and the Knicks are projected to score 18 points more than their season average. Enes Kanter minutes seem secure in New York and he’s making the most of them. He is averaging 30 fantasy points per game and gets to face a soft Nets’ frontcourt tonight.

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 119.4 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 109.7 (1 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Ramon Sessions $4,700 $4,400 $9,300 19.9 26.3 0.76 18.0% 24 0.22
Courtney Lee $4,500 $4,100 $8,100 16.5 31.8 0.52 13.3% 17 -0.76
Tim Hardaway $4,600 $5,000 $9,800 11.1 30.5 0.36 19.5% 27 1.09
Kristaps Porzingis $8,900 $8,500 $14,000 36.6 34.9 1.05 29.0% 29 1.36
Enes Kanter $6,000 $5,900 $11,500 30.4 25.3 1.20 19.2% 8 0.90
Doug McDermott $3,400 $3,300 $7,500 15.9 22.8 0.70 10.6% N/A N/A
Michael Beasley $3,300 $3,800 $7,200 8.9 10.7 0.83 22.4% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway, Kristaps Porzingis, Enes Kanter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ramon Sessions, Courtney Lee, Enes Kanter (Cash)


Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Atlanta Hawks
denvernba Vegas Total 207.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread -7.5 Vegas Spread 7.5
Implied Team Total 107.3 Implied Team Total 99.8
Pace Projection +/- 2.7 Pace Projection +/- -3.9
Projected Starters Jamal Murray Gary Harris Wilson Chandler Paul Millsap Nikola Jokic Projected Starters Malcolm Delaney Kent Bazemore Taurean Prince Ersan Ilyasova Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 18 23 14 21 10 DvP 21 6 19 12 2
DRPM -0.42 -1.09 2.66 0.63 4.86 DRPM -1.82 -2.44 -1.73 3.29 2.00

Denver Nuggets

Notable Injuries

None

The Nuggets are only 1-3 to start the season and have taken a different approach to the one I expected. They are ranked 26th in pace of play, which is a huge change from what they’ve done over the last five years. Part of that could be due to their opening schedule, but I’d like to see them pick up the pace a bit. Luckily, they are facing a Hawks’ team that has the fifth fastest pace this season. Denver comes into the game as a 7.5-point favorite with an implied total of 107.3 points, which is a full ten points higher than their season average.

The Hawks are basically equipped to stop two positions — small forward and center. Taurean Prince and Dewayne Dedmon are both excellent defenders, which cuts into the fantasy appeal of Wilson Chandler and Nikola Jokic. While Jokic was matchup-proof a year ago, I’d like to see his usage creep up before paying over $8,000 for him. He is currently averaging 0.93 fantasy points per minute. Paul Millsap FP/minute is even worse at 0.77. It’s clearly going to take some time for this frontcourt to gel and I’d rather look elsewhere while they do.

Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay are going to cut into each other’s production while healthy, but hopefully the last two games were a sign of what is to come. In those outings, Murray played 29 and 33 minutes, scoring 23 and 29 fantasy points. If he sees 28-32 minutes tonight, he could be one of the top point-per-dollar producers of the slate. Dennis Schroder and Malcolm Delaney are not good defenders and targeting point guards against the Hawks is a favorite pastime of mine. Gary Harris is also viable in cash games. He has a low usage rate, but should play 32+ minutes in a favorable matchup against Kent Bazemore.

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.5 (5 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Jamal Murray $4,900 $4,500 $8,800 18.1 25.5 0.71 23.6% 18 -0.42
Gary Harris $5,000 $4,900 $8,600 20.8 32.5 0.64 15.3% 23 -1.09
Wilson Chandler $5,100 $4,800 $10,500 21.0 31.7 0.66 13.6% 14 2.66
Paul Millsap $6,600 $6,300 $14,000 23.2 30.3 0.77 20.3% 21 0.63
Nikola Jokic $8,400 $8,400 $15,400 30.6 32.8 0.93 17.4% 10 4.86
Emmanuel Mudiay $3,400 $3,600 $6,700 15.2 19.9 0.76 24.2% N/A N/A
Will Barton $5,500 $5,500 $10,900 29.0 29.6 0.98 22.7% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jamal Murray (DK), Gary Harris (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jamal Murray (FD & FDRFT), Gary Harris (FD & FDRFT), Wilson Chandler, Will Barton


Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Dennis Schroder (Questionable)
Ersan Ilyasova (Probable)
Marco Belinelli (Probable)

The Hawks are hoping to have two of their starters back tonight to help stop the bleeding. Ersan Ilyasova is listed as probable, while Dennis Schroder may end up being a game-time decision. It’s hard to know if the Nuggets are going to keep this slow pace the rest of the season, but they don’t appear to be as favorable of a matchup as they were last year. Denver is currently ranked ninth in points allowed per game and fourth in rebounding differential. The Hawks come into tonight’s game as sizable underdogs with the lowest implied total on the board.

If Dennis Schroder is able to return to the lineup, that will give me more confidence to play Jamal Murray in all formats. As far as Schroder goes, I’d take a wait and see approach. I’d want to see his ankle hold up before using him in cash games or tournaments. If Schroder is out, Malcolm Delaney would become viable once again. He has not performed well in his two spot starts, but it’s hard to pass on a starting point guard at his price point.

Kent Bazemore sees a significant usage bump with Schroder off the floor, so if he’s out again tonight, we can fire up Schroder in all formats. His price is more than reasonable and he’s averaging 27 fantasy points per game this season. This is a nice bounce-back spot for Taurean Prince, but his minutes aren’t quite as secure with Ersan Ilyasova back. Dewayne Dedmon is very cheap across the industry, but I don’t make a habit out of targeting centers against Denver. They are ranked fourth in rebounding differential and Nikola Jokic is an elite defender (2.00 DRPM last season).

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 7.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (26 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Malcolm Delaney $4,000 $4,600 $9,100 14.6 24.9 0.59 15.2% 21 -1.82
Kent Bazemore $5,500 $5,400 $8,800 26.8 29.5 0.91 22.0% 6 -2.44
Taurean Prince $5,600 $5,800 $9,900 21.6 28.6 0.76 16.0% 19 -1.73
Ersan Ilyasova $4,600 $4,200 $8,300 17.5 22.5 0.78 12.7% 12 3.29
Dewayne Dedmon $4,900 $4,400 $8,000 21.3 24.7 0.86 11.4% 2 2.00
John Collins $5,600 $5,600 $10,500 25.1 20.4 1.23 20.0% N/A N/A
Marco Belinelli $4,500 $4,400 $8,700 23.9 27.4 0.87 21.6% N/A N/A
Dennis Schroder $8,300 $7,300 $15,000 39.8 32.4 1.23 35.6% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kent Bazemore (if Schroder is out)

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore (if Schroder is active), Malcolm Delaney and Marco Belinelli (if Schroder is out)


Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Minnesota Timberwolves
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 219.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Implied Team Total 110.5 Implied Team Total 108.5
Pace Projection +/- -1.7 Pace Projection +/- 0.3
Projected Starters Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Paul George Carmelo Anthony Steven Adams Projected Starters Jeff Teague Jimmy Butler Andrew Wiggins Taj Gibson Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 29 22 22 11 23 DvP 4 5 17 10 16
DRPM -0.24 1.86 -2.73 2.10 -1.71 DRPM -0.59 2.47 0.13 -1.49 1.42

Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

None

The Thunder are going to take some time to develop chemistry on the offensive end of the floor. They have all of the pieces needed to be elite on defense and are already ranked fifth in efficiency. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on the Wolves in what is expected to be a close, high scoring affair. The spread is set at two and the total of 219 points is one of the highest on the board. The Thunder have an implied total of 110.5 points, which is six points above their season average.

Other than Boogie Cousins last night against the Kings, it hasn’t been a pleasant stroll down revenge lane. Paul George got into foul trouble against his former team and had his worst fantasy outing of the season. It will be interesting to see how the Wolves matchup against George and Carmelo Anthony. Jimmy Butler will likely take one of the two, which leaves Andrew Wiggins or Taj Gibson on the other one. I wish we knew beforehand, because I’d fade the one facing Butler and load up on the other one.

Regardless of how the wing matchups shake out, Russell Westbrook should spend most of his night in a favorable matchup against Jeff Teague. The Wolves have allowed the second most fantasy points to point guards this season and Westbrook is coming off of a 66 fantasy point outing. Everyone seems hesitant to use Westbrook, even though he’s topped 50 fantasy points in every game but the one against the Jazz. Steven Adams is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight, which sounds a bit strange since he’s not known for his ceiling. Karl-Anthony Towns has the worst DRPM (-1.71) of any center playing tonight and Adams has quietly already had three 40 fantasy point outings this season, including one against the Wolves.

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 114.0 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (18 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Russell Westbrook $11,500 $11,400 $23,600 51.7 35.2 1.47 31.6% 29 -0.24
Andre Roberson $3,200 $3,500 $6,300 9.2 19.3 0.47 10.2% 22 1.86
Paul George $8,300 $7,700 $14,100 34.6 33.3 1.04 24.9% 22 -2.73
Carmelo Anthony $8,000 $7,200 $15,000 38.1 35.1 1.08 26.3% 11 2.10
Steven Adams $7,000 $6,000 $12,500 35.9 32.0 1.12 13.7% 23 -1.71

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams (Cash)


Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (Probable)

The Wolves have yet to take that next step forward. The pieces are all in place, but it just hasn’t clicked yet. We are only five games into the season though, so there is still plenty of time for them to right the ship. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Thunder, who are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Wolves implied total of 108.5 points feels a bit high, but we often see talented teams like these two get into shootouts.

Similar to the Thunder, I wish we knew how these matchups were going to shake out. Ideally, we would fade the Wolves’ wing player that draws Andre Roberson defense and avoid the other one. I didn’t get a chance to watch their first game, but Andrew Wiggins had the big outing, scoring 46 fantasy points, while Jimmy Butler was held to 30. I don’t see either as a core play tonight, but both provide upside in tournaments. It’s a good night to price shop if you are playing multiple sites, as Wiggins is a better buy on FanDuel and Butler is a better buy on DraftKings.

Steven Adams is an excellent low post defender, but Karl-Anthony Towns has given him fits. In their last three meetings, Towns has scored 46, 47, and 63 fantasy points. If I could lock in that production right now, I’d gladly take it at his price point. There aren’t many centers in the NBA that we can rely on to play 35 minutes a night, which is an added bonus of targeting Towns. He has a high floor and a high ceiling, so we can target him in both cash games and tournaments.

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.1 (13 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Jeff Teague $6,400 $6,000 $13,400 27.2 30.3 0.90 20.8% 4 -0.59
Jimmy Butler $8,300 $7,000 $13,200 29.4 37.7 0.78 19.4% 5 2.47
Andrew Wiggins $6,500 $7,000 $12,500 29.6 34.2 0.86 22.8% 17 0.13
Taj Gibson $4,300 $4,000 $8,500 18.2 26.6 0.68 11.4% 10 -1.49
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,500 $8,600 $17,400 40.9 33.9 1.21 21.7% 16 1.42
Jamal Crawford $3,900 $3,900 $8,100 19.8 22.6 0.88 23.0% N/A N/A
Shabazz Muhammad $3,500 $4,000 $7,300 9.9 18.7 0.53 15.8% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (DK), Andrew Wiggins (FD)


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious