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NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-13 03:19:04

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Indiana Pacers
charlottenba Vegas Total 211.5 indiananba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- 1.3 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 21 21 17 22 20 DvP 15 5 24 14 15
DRPM 0.24 -1.22 -0.17 0.83 1.96 DRPM -0.83 0.27 1.91 0.04 1.36

Charlotte Hornets

Before we get into the games, I want to explain a new statistic that was added to the Grind Down and the reasoning behind it. If you look at the game table above, you will see a new row that is labeled “DRPM.” This stands for Defensive Real Plus-Minus, which measures a player’s impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions. The higher the number, the better defender that player is. In order to make the charts readable, I’ve put the DRPM of the opponent, so that we can compare them to DvP. For instance, in the table above, you will see that Kemba Walker has a DRPM of 0.24 under his name. This is for Walker’s matchup, meaning Jeff Teague has a DRPM of 0.24. Meanwhile, Walker has a DRPM of -0.83, which is shown on the other side of the table. The main reason for adding this statistic is that DvP can be very fluky in daily fantasy basketball. It is affected by blowouts, second units, injuries, and there are often problems with two players starting that are listed at the same position. Ideally, we want to look for players in a good DvP matchup and a good DRPM matchup.

The Hornets have won six of their last ten games and are currently tied for third in the Eastern Conference. They draw a pace-up matchup against the Pacers, who have really struggled on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, Indiana is ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. This game is expected to stay close (1.5-point spread) and the over/under is set at a healthy 211.5 points. Charlotte has an implied total of 105 points, which is the eighth highest in the slate and slightly above their season average. Kemba Walker is dealing with a knee injury, but is expected to play tonight.

Walker is one of those players that has such big home/road splits that I have a trouble targeting him on the road, even in favorable matchups. The point guard position is always the deepest in fantasy basketball too, which makes him an easier fade than if he were listed at a different position. You can still target Walker in tournaments, but there are better cash game options in his seven game slate. Nicolas Batum has played well recently, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He draws an excellent matchup against Glenn Robinson and C.J. Miles, who both have negative DRPM’s on the season. The rest of the Hornets have been inconsistent this season, both from a minutes perspective and from a fantasy perspective. Despite the high total, Batum is the only Hornets’ player that I am actively targeting tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kemba Walker $7,600 $7,500 $12,000 1.11 33.0 -3.5 36.7 -6.5 30.9% -0.1% 21
Nicolas Batum $6,900 $6,600 $10,700 0.91 34.4 -2.1 31.3 -0.5 21.5% 0.4% 21
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,700 $4,200 $8,200 0.75 29.6 -8.4 22.3 -8.7 14.2% -1.3% 17
Marvin Williams $4,300 $4,200 $8,200 0.71 27.2 -1.6 19.3 -2.4 17.6% -0.7% 22
Cody Zeller $4,700 $4,300 $7,700 0.88 24.9 0.9 21.9 0.6 16.9% 2.1% 20
Frank Kaminsky $4,500 $4,000 $7,300 0.81 26.3 -0.3 21.4 -0.5 21.0% -0.7% 22

Elite Plays – Nicolas Batum

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers appear to be a fringe playoff team in the Eastern Conference. They are more talented than the teams around them, but they have yet to find their groove this season. They draw a difficult matchup on paper against the Hornets, but Vegas is expecting this to be a close, high scoring game. Despite Charlotte being ranked tenth in points allowed per game, the Pacers have an implied total of 106.5 points. Their total is the sixth highest in the slate and it is 1.5 points above their season average. Indiana will be without Monta Ellis in this one, as he has been ruled out with a groin injury.

If we look strictly at DRPM, Jeff Teague has the best matchup of the five starters. The issue with Teague is that his usage rate isn’t nearly as high when Paul George is on the floor. Teague should see 32-34 minutes in a nice matchup though, so he deserves consideration in tournaments. Glenn Robinson, Rodney Stuckey, and C.J. Miles should all see an uptick in minutes with Monta Ellis out. Robinson is expected to draw the start and he has shown a high floor in similar situations this season. Paul George has scored at least 36 fantasy points in four of his last five games. His matchup against Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a great example of why we should be looking at DRPM. We know that Kidd-Gilchrist is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, yet the Hornets are ranked 24th against small forwards. I’m not saying that we have to automatically fade George, but his matchup isn’t as favorable as the DvP numbers suggest. Myles Turner is a viable play at a rather thin center position. It appears that his minutes are trending upward, as he has played 31 and 33 in his last two games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Jeff Teague $6,700 $6,200 $10,400 1.02 31.5 0.9 32.1 -3.0 26.0% -3.4% 15
Glenn Robinson $3,600 $3,700 $6,700 0.63 18.2 -6.7 11.5 -4.8 14.5% -3.8% 5
Paul George $8,500 $8,300 $12,900 1.06 35.2 2.7 37.1 5.6 26.6% 1.6% 24
Thaddeus Young $5,000 $4,900 $9,900 0.78 29.8 0.0 23.2 1.0 16.6% -1.6% 14
Myles Turner $6,000 $5,700 $10,600 1.03 28.7 2.1 29.6 0.0 19.5% -1.0% 15
Rodney Stuckey $3,800 $3,500 $7,400 0.69 21.1 5.5 14.6 3.7 21.1% -5.6% 5
C.J. Miles $4,200 $3,900 $8,200 0.88 21.5 -2.2 18.9 -4.9 18.9% -4.5% 24

Elite Plays – Myles Turner

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (GPP), Glenn Robinson, Paul George, Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles

Washington Wizards at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards Miami Heat
washingtonnba Vegas Total 206.0 miaminba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 103.5 Team Total 102.5
Pace +/- -2.7 Pace +/- 0.3
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Wayne Ellington Rodney McGruder Josh McRoberts Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 3 6 22 11 26 DvP 10 8 9 21 17
DRPM -1.33 -0.55 -0.92 0.99 1.85 DRPM -0.64 -1.09 1.04 1.28 1.62

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are only 9-13 overall, but they have won two games in a row and six of their last ten. A matchup against the Heat typically isn’t ideal, but Miami has been playing short-handed for the last couple of weeks. Their defense has not been nearly as effective during that stretch, which is why the Wizards have a fairly high implied total of 103.5 points. This will still be a pace-down game for Washington, but the matchup isn’t as difficult as it looks on paper. The biggest plus in this game is that the spread is set at a single point, which should help starters from both teams see a full complement of minutes.

The DvP and DRPM numbers from the Heat couldn’t be more contradicting. Point guards and shooting guards have struggled to score fantasy points against Miami, yet Goran Dragic and Wayne Ellington have been below average defenders. Meanwhile, the Heat have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to centers, while Hassan Whiteside has one of the best DRPM’s of any center in the NBA. We should keep in mind that this new statistic only keeps track of points scored, not fantasy production. John Wall has been on an absolute tear recently and despite the elevated price point, deserves consideration in all formats tonight. Bradley Beal is also worth a look, as the Heat have struggled against wing players without Justise Winslow in the lineup. Markieff Morris is averaging 27.6 fantasy points over his last three games and is still affordable across the industry. Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat are both in the midst of a slump and are secondary options at best tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
John Wall $9,600 $9,000 $13,400 1.23 36.1 3.6 44.4 6.4 35.4% 0.8% 3
Bradley Beal $6,800 $6,700 $11,000 0.88 34.9 1.9 30.7 -1.1 26.0% -0.5% 6
Otto Porter $5,700 $5,900 $9,900 0.85 34.4 -2.3 29.1 -12.3 15.3% -3.4% 22
Markieff Morris $5,100 $5,400 $8,800 0.76 31.9 1.7 24.1 3.5 20.2% -1.1% 11
Marcin Gortat $6,100 $6,000 $9,900 0.83 35.3 1.0 29.3 -6.2 13.7% -1.5% 26
Marcus Thornton $3,500 $3,000 $6,500 0.71 18.7 -5.2 13.4 0.1 19.5% -0.4% 6

Elite Plays – Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris (FD)

Secondary Plays – John Wall, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris (DK)

Miami Heat

The Heat are looking to snap a five-game losing streak. Granted, their season has been plagued with injuries, but it’s not like they have played that well when healthy. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 20th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Miami has an implied total of 102.5 points, which may not seem like much, but it is actually 5.7 points above their season average. Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow have already been ruled out of tonight’s game, but James Johnson and Luke Babbitt are both questionable.

The Heat have been a great team to target recently thanks to sheer attrition. There have been nights when they have only had eight or nine active players. Josh Richardson is back in the lineup though, and we could see a couple of other players return tonight. Goran Dragic should still have a high usage against the Wizards, although I’m not sure he still has that 38+ minute upside. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s against John Wall, who is not a great defender. Tyler Johnson’s minutes may go down a bit with Richardson back, but I still like him as a tournament play off the bench. Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder could be interesting punt plays again, although their appeal hinges on the availability of James Johnson and Luke Babbitt. Marcin Gortat is a capable defender, but Hassan Whiteside has scored 47.1 and 55.6 fantasy points in their last two meetings. My main concern with Whiteside is that he has a lingering knee injury.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Goran Dragic $7,200 $7,200 $11,100 0.95 33.5 1.0 31.9 -1.6 29.4% 0.9% 10
Wayne Ellington $4,500 $4,400 $7,200 0.62 32.8 0.0 20.3 -2.8 17.3% -0.6% 8
Rodney McGruder $4,000 $3,800 $7,100 0.55 25.2 5.6 13.8 6.3 13.5% -0.1% 9
Josh McRoberts $3,900 $3,900 $7,000 0.72 17.7 6.5 12.7 0.6 20.0% 0.3% 21
Hassan Whiteside $8,700 $8,400 $13,900 1.19 33.3 -1.1 39.7 -13.6 22.7% 0.3% 17
Tyler Johnson $5,400 $5,500 $7,900 0.83 30.8 4.8 25.5 4.4 21.7% 3.5% 10

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder (if James Johnson and Luke Babbitt are out)

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Toronto Raptors
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 212.0 torontonba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 101.8 Team Total 110.3
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 14 1 10 13 11 DvP 8 14 26 24 18
DRPM -0.01 -1.67 0.69 1.54 0.58 DRPM 2.85 0.10 -0.43 -1.15 0.72

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have been a fun team to watch this season thanks to the stellar play of Giannis Antetokounmpo. I really wish we could have seen a full season with a healthy Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jabari Parker, but that may have to wait a year. The Bucks are another fringe playoff team in the East, as they currently have a record of 11-11 on the season. Their matchup against the Raptors sounds a lot worse than it actually is, although I don’t love the fact that they are 8.5-point underdogs on the road. Toronto hasn’t been nearly as effective on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking 12th in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency.

If the Bucks are going to have any chance in this game, they will need a big outing from Giannis Antetokounmpo. There is always a little foul trouble concern here, but he generally plays minutes in the upper 30s when the game stays close. His price is back under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which puts him in play in all formats. Given the roller coaster nature of his game logs, he’s probably better suited for tournaments, but I don’t mind him in cash games at this price. Matthew Dellavedova is a fine punt, but he’s not a player that I actively try to force into my lineups. Jabari Parker is coming off of a dud against the Wizards, but had scored at least 31 fantasy points in each of his previous four games. John Henson and Greg Monroe are intriguing targets at center, but neither really stands out in this matchup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Giannis Antetokounmpo $9,800 $9,800 $14,200 1.35 34.3 0.6 46.2 -5.7 30.0% -0.4% 14
Matthew Dellavedova $4,100 $4,000 $7,500 0.69 28.4 -1.3 19.7 -1.8 19.9% 3.3% 1
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,300 $7,600 0.50 29.6 1.4 14.9 -2.1 13.0% -4.3% 10
Jabari Parker $6,200 $6,200 $10,300 0.93 32.5 -0.3 30.3 -2.7 25.5% 3.0% 13
John Henson $4,700 $4,400 $7,700 0.95 20.3 5.1 19.4 1.6 16.4% -1.2% 11
Greg Monroe $5,000 $4,600 $8,300 1.21 19.1 3.5 23.2 2.9 22.7% 0.9% 11
Malcolm Brogdon $3,700 $3,400 $6,700 0.74 21.0 3.2 15.5 4.9 19.9% -2.0% 14

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker, John Henson, Greg Monroe (DK)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors haven’t been as good defensively this season, but their offense has improved. Despite being ranked 23rd in pace of play, they average the fourth most points per game (111.0). They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Raptors have an implied total of 110.3 points, which is good enough to be the fourth highest mark in the slate. The main concern here is a potential blowout, but that’s the case with a number of games today. In fact, four of the seven games have a spread of at least 7.5 points.

The Raptors have expressed concerns about Kyle Lowry playing time, but it seems like they’ve been saying that all season. Until they actually start cutting back his minutes, I will continue to project him for 36-38 each game. Lowry will have his hands full with Matthew Dellavedova, but he still grades out as a top five point guard tonight on a point-per-dollar basis. DeMar DeRozan production has slowly taken a hit in the last few weeks, but his price is all the way down to $7,700 on DraftKings and he still has the seventh highest true usage in the NBA. DeMarre Carroll is a nice value at small forward. He is averaging 33.5 minutes in his last three games and should see close to that tonight if he can stay out of foul trouble against Giannis Antetokounmpo. Jonas Valanciunas is always worth a look in tournaments, but his range of outcomes is too broad to trust in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyle Lowry $8,900 $8,100 $12,100 1.05 37.4 0.8 39.4 5.7 26.9% 0.4% 8
DeMar DeRozan $8,500 $7,700 $13,000 1.13 35.9 1.7 40.5 -1.2 34.5% -0.4% 14
DeMarre Carroll $4,200 $4,100 $8,500 0.70 26.5 7.0 18.6 -0.9 15.3% -0.5% 26
Pascal Siakam $3,500 $3,000 $7,200 0.67 19.0 -4.4 12.6 -3.5 12.7% -1.3% 24
Jonas Valanciunas $5,200 $5,100 $9,100 0.92 27.9 -1.9 25.6 -3.1 18.6% 0.5% 18
Patrick Patterson $4,400 $4,000 $7,600 0.68 29.0 1.1 19.7 0.4 13.1% 4.0% 24

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan (DK)

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (FD), DeMarre Carroll, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Houston Rockets
brooklynnba Vegas Total 229.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 229.0
Vegas Spread 14.5 Vegas Spread -14.5
Team Total 107.3 Team Total 121.8
Pace +/- 0.9 Pace +/- 5.0
Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 5 19 23 15 20 DvP 30 28 30 29 30
DRPM 0.01 -1.12 0.93 -0.81 0.71 DRPM -0.39 -2.27 -1.49 2.23 -0.61

Brooklyn Nets

This is the ultimate risk/reward game. It features two fast-paced teams with below-average defenses, but it also features a spread of 14.5 points. The Nets have lost eight of their last ten games and are tied for the second fewest number of wins in the NBA. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets, although this game will be played in Houston. On the season, the Rockets are ranked 19th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Nets have an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and 1.3 points above their season average.

Jeremy Lin is expected to return to the Nets’ starting lineup tonight, after missing all but five games so far this season. He will likely be on a minute restriction, but he is certainly a boost for their backcourt and for their chances of keeping this game close. Many will see Lin’s return as a downgrade for Sean Kilpatrick, but he should still play around 30 minutes against James Harden, who is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Bojan Bogdanovic is averaging over 25 fantasy points in his last three games and should get plenty of open looks in this uptempo game. Trevor Booker is finally starting to see minutes in the 30s and targeting power forwards against the Rockets has been a viable strategy for years. My only concern is that Ryan Anderson doesn’t spend a lot of time in the paint, which could pull Booker away from the basket and hurt his rebounding total. Brook Lopez is an excellent tournament play on DraftKings at a price of only $6,600. Basically, I like the spot for the Nets as a whole, but probably won’t have any Brooklyn shares in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Jeremy Lin $6,300 $5,500 $9,300 1.13 26.9 30.5 29.1% 5
Sean Kilpatrick $5,400 $5,400 $8,600 0.90 27.5 1.9 24.7 -0.2 26.5% -7.3% 19
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,600 $4,300 $7,900 0.74 28.0 1.8 20.8 4.3 21.2% 0.6% 23
Trevor Booker $5,800 $5,600 $8,500 0.99 28.1 3.5 27.9 0.1 17.2% 1.9% 15
Brook Lopez $7,200 $6,600 $10,900 1.15 28.2 1.1 32.5 5.5 28.0% -2.4% 20
Isaiah Whitehead $3,700 $3,400 $6,000 0.61 22.8 2.8 13.8 3.5 19.0% 2.2% 5

Elite Plays – Brook Lopez (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Sean Kilpatrick, Bojan Bogdanovic, Trevor Booker, Brook Lopez (Cash)

Houston Rockets

The Rockets may score 150 points tonight. The problem is that they could be up by 30 at the end of the third quarter. Their offense has been tremendous this season, especially when you look at their pace of play (11th). They draw the best possible matchup tonight, as they get to face a Nets’ team that is ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Rockets have an implied total of 121.8 points, which is the highest in the slate and 10.2 points above their season average. There are times when I try to avoid potential blowouts, but this isn’t one of them. The upside is too high to fade the Rockets tonight.

James Harden hasn’t been great against the Thunder this season, but he has mashed against every other team that he has faced. His production has taken a small dip since Patrick Beverley returned to the lineup, but it has less to do with Beverley and more to do with the fact that Harden is trying to get everyone involved early. His price has come down a bit on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he literally has the best matchup in the slate. Sean Kilpatrick has a DRPM of -2.27 and the Nets are ranked 30th against point guards and 28th against shooting guards. Feel free to fade Harden tonight, but that is a quest you will be taking on your own. This is also a great spot for the role players around Harden, as an implied total of 121.8 points is huge. Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, and Eric Gordon are all viable plays. I’m not sure who I like the best of the five, but at least two of them will have big fantasy outings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Patrick Beverley $5,100 $4,900 $7,800 0.81 29.2 1.5 23.7 7.4 15.4% 2.6% 30
James Harden $11,400 $11,400 $16,400 1.42 36.9 -1.4 52.3 -3.2 38.5% -2.8% 28
Trevor Ariza $5,500 $5,400 $8,600 0.76 33.3 -2.2 25.3 -2.5 14.9% -0.8% 30
Ryan Anderson $4,500 $4,700 $9,000 0.68 30.8 -1.7 21.0 -2.1 17.2% 0.4% 29
Clint Capela $5,700 $5,300 $8,700 1.04 25.5 -3.9 26.5 -0.2 18.3% 6.9% 30
Eric Gordon $5,300 $5,400 $9,200 0.80 30.9 -2.9 24.8 0.9 22.6% 0.7% 28

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Dallas Mavericks
denvernba Vegas Total 201.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 101.5 Team Total 100.0
Pace +/- -5.0 Pace +/- 2.5
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Darrell Arthur Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Salah Mejri
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 1 21 6 5 11 DvP 28 29 6 16 6
DRPM -0.50 0.06 0.44 -0.73 1.71 DRPM -1.06 -0.86 -0.23 -0.41 1.77

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have lost seven of their last ten games and are now six games below .500 overall. Tonight they head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a game that features a low over/under of 201.5 points. Even though the Mavericks are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency, they play at such a slow pace that they have still managed to hold their opponents to the ninth fewest points per game. Denver has an implied total of only 101.5 points, which is the second lowest in the slate and 4.7 points below their season average. The one situation to monitor here is the availability of Wilson Chandler. He is currently listed as questionable, after missing Saturday’s game with a hip injury.

Emmanuel Mudiay may be the starter in name, but Jameer Nelson is playing just as many minutes off the bench and he’s been by far the more productive point guard over the last couple of weeks. I will probably be avoiding both players tonight in this pace-down matchup against the Mavericks. Will Barton should see minutes in the mid to upper 30s tonight, especially if Wilson Chandler is unable to suit up. Barton is more of a site-specific play though, as he is cheap on FanDuel and Rosters, but a little expensive on DraftKings. Danilo Gallinari plays a lot of minutes, but he has a low usage rate and a low FP/min. I prefer to target him in elite matchups, not ones like tonight. My favorite play here is Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 25 minutes and 32.4 fantasy points in his last three games. He has been tremendous when healthy and we’ve seen the Nuggets loosen the reigns a bit. Jokic has played at least 26 minutes in four of his last six games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,800 $4,400 $9,100 0.76 29.8 -9.3 22.6 -12.9 25.6% -5.9% 1
Will Barton $5,500 $6,400 $8,700 0.79 31.5 4.0 25.0 -0.2 22.0% -1.8% 21
Danilo Gallinari $5,800 $5,700 $10,900 0.72 35.1 -5.9 25.4 -4.4 19.1% 1.4% 6
Darrell Arthur $3,500 $3,200 $6,600 0.63 15.5 2.5 9.8 -0.6 16.0% -4.5% 5
Jusuf Nurkic $4,500 $4,300 $9,200 1.02 21.4 -1.9 21.8 -2.6 23.1% 2.6% 11
Jameer Nelson $4,700 $4,900 $7,600 0.72 26.9 3.5 19.4 3.8 20.4% 5.6% 1
Nikola Jokic $5,600 $5,800 $8,600 1.03 23.7 1.3 24.5 7.9 19.5% 3.5% 5
Wilson Chandler $6,300 $6,300 $10,400 0.96 31.2 2.6 30.0 1.8 24.5% 2.8% 6

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Will Barton (FD)

Secondary Plays – Will Barton (DK)

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have the fewest number of wins in the NBA (five), but come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point underdogs at home against the Nuggets. This is an exploitable matchup for fantasy production, as the Nuggets are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks are without the NBA’s best defender in Andrew Bogut (according to DRPM) and may have to lean a bit more on their offense. Their implied total of 100 points may not seem like much, but it is actually 7.3 points above their season average. Dallas has the third highest projected point differential in the slate.

Deron Williams has played well since coming back from injury, but his price has been quick to react. He is already $6,200 on FanDuel and $5,700 on DraftKings. Even at his elevated price point, he is a strong play tonight against a Nuggets’ defense that has surrendered the third most fantasy points to point guards this season. Even with Seth Curry back, Williams should see 32-34 minutes tonight. Wesley Matthews has quietly played well recently, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in five straight games. He also draws an elite matchup against a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked 29th against shooting guards. Harrison Barnes continues to have a high usage in this offense and even though his production has been down recently, he is a great play tonight at home in a game where the Mavericks are projected to score 7.3 points more than their season average. The final play from Dallas is Dwight Powell, who should see 24-28 minutes off the bench. He is averaging 0.84 FP/min, which is higher than any of the five starters.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Deron Williams $6,200 $5,700 $8,800 0.78 29.5 2.8 23.1 2.2 26.1% -3.0% 28
Wesley Matthews $5,700 $5,600 $8,300 0.68 36.0 -1.1 24.3 7.6 21.4% 3.8% 29
Dorian Finney-Smith $3,700 $3,100 $6,500 0.49 20.6 8.2 10.1 9.8 12.3% 2.3% 6
Harrison Barnes $6,400 $6,100 $10,300 0.80 37.0 -3.5 29.5 -4.7 25.0% 1.4% 16
Salah Mejri $3,700 $3,500 $6,900 0.81 11.8 4.8 9.5 3.2 10.6% -1.7% 6
Dwight Powell $4,500 $4,800 $7,600 0.84 20.9 3.0 17.5 4.7 15.6% -0.3% 16

Elite Plays – Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes

Secondary Plays – Dwight Powell

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious