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NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-24 04:22:07

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM

Detroit Pistons Cleveland Cavaliers
detroitnba Vegas Total 206.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 107.8
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 95.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 19 6 7 2 1 Opp. Season 13 10 2 17 11
Last 3 Weeks 25 3 10 3 5 Last 3 Weeks 16 19 19 10 16

Detroit Pistons

Record: 27-29 — Road: 11-18 — Last 10: 2-8

The Pistons have lost eight of their last ten games and have fallen to 27-29 on the season. They have not fared well away from home, sporting a disappointing 11-18 record on the road. Tonight they travel to Cleveland to take on the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are listed as 9-point underdogs with a low implied team total of 98.8 points.

The Cavaliers are a team that we should try to avoid targeting players against whenever possible. They have an elite defense, ranking seventh or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Anthony Tolliver has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which should result in Tobias Harris getting his first start. As for Donatas Motiejunas and Marcus Thornton, it sounds like the trade may end up getting voided if Motiejunas doesn’t pass the Pistons’ medical staff’s evaluation.

Elite Plays

Reggie Jackson

FD — Salary: $6,500 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 1.03
DK — Salary: $6,600 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 1.09

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 31.0 31.2 0.2 31.1 0.1
FPPG (FD) 31.9 27.5 -4.4 29.5 -2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 25.9 24.0 -1.9 25.3 -0.6

Jackson is the one Pistons’ player that I am considering in cash games tonight. With Brandon Jennings now in Orlando, Jackson’s minutes and usage are both solidified in this offense. He also draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Cavaliers are ranked 19th against point guards this season and 25th over the last three weeks.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond

FD — Salary: $8,400 — Position: C — FP/Min: 1.19
DK — Salary: $8,000 — Position: C — FP/Min: 1.28

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 33.8 34.0 0.2 35.2 1.4
FPPG (FD) 40.1 37.4 -2.7 38.7 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 20.6 18.4 -2.2 17.9 -2.6

Drummond’s production continues to trend in the wrong direction. He’s coming off of a nice outing against the Pelicans yesterday, but his inconsistency makes him a risky cash game option. Drummond has shown that he still has a high floor – scoring more than 46 fantasy points three times in his last eight games, but the Cavaliers have been tough on opposing frontcourts.

Tobias Harris

FD — Salary: $5,500 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 0.80
DK — Salary: $5,700 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 0.86

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 31.5 -1.4 32.7 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 26.5 22.8 -3.7 26.9 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 16.5 0.4 19.5 3.4

With Anthony Tolliver ruled out, Harris is expected to join the starting lineup tonight against the Cavaliers. Harris was eventually going to start anyway and I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays there the rest of the season. Harris is still finding his way in this offense, but the price is cheap for a player that should see a ton of minutes tonight.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 40-14 — Home: 23-4 — Last 10: 8-2

The Cavaliers have won eight of their last ten games and are coming off of arguably their best win of the season. They made quick work of the Thunder yesterday in Oklahoma City. The Cavaliers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but are still large favorites at home. Cleveland is projected to score 107.8 points, which is 4.6 points above their scoring average.

The Pistons have been a slightly above-average team defensively this season, ranking 13th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Cavaliers are about as matchup proof of an offense as we are going to find though, and their high team total suggests just that. The two main injuries to monitor here are Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert. Irving left yesterday’s game with an illness and was unable to return. Shumpert sat out yesterday’s game with a shoulder injury.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

FD — Salary: $10,100 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 1.24
DK — Salary: $9,700 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 1.32

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 36.7 0.8 35.3 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 44.7 48.4 3.7 49.5 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 28.5 0.9 28.6 1.0

James had a little something to prove yesterday against the Thunder. He outplayed both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant en route to a big win for the Cavaliers. James is worth a look again tonight, especially if Kyrie Irving is unable to suit up. James has an extremely high floor and I’m not concerned about the fact that the Pistons are ranked second against small forwards.

Kevin Love

FD — Salary: $7,200 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 1.03
DK — Salary: $7,300 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 1.12

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 31.4 -0.8 28.7 -3.5
FPPG (FD) 33.3 33.6 0.3 32.1 -1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 19.6 20.4 0.8 22.0 2.5

LeBron James is an elite play regardless, but Love’s appeal hinges on the availability of Kyrie Irving. If Irving is ruled out, Love is an elite play in all league formats. If Irving plays, I would drop Love down to more of a secondary option. The Pistons should be a better team defensively against power forwards now that they have acquired Tobias Harris.

Secondary Plays

Tristan Thompson

FD — Salary: $5,100 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 0.76
DK — Salary: $5,500 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 0.79

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 28.4 32.9 4.5 31.1 2.7
FPPG (FD) 21.7 25.1 3.5 29.3 7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 9.9 8.0 -1.9 9.3 -0.5

Thompson has been surprisingly inconsistent for a player that relies on rebounding and easy buckets for most of his fantasy production. He is not a player that I will be starting my lineups with tonight, but I don’t mind targeting him as a filler if you need a power forward in this price range.

J.R. Smith

FD — Salary: $5,100 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 0.67
DK — Salary: $5,300 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 0.73

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 33.6 3.0 32.9 2.3
FPPG (FD) 20.5 20.5 0.1 20.9 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 16.5 -0.3 17.4 0.7

Smith has seen a nice boost in minutes recently, averaging three minutes more over his last ten games. If Iman Shumpert is ruled out again tonight, Smith could see 35+ minutes against the Pistons. The one concern here is his matchup against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Toronto Raptors New York Knicks
torontonba Vegas Total 200.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 95.80 Team Pace 96.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 17 11 10 7 16 Opp. Season 3 14 4 4 17
Last 3 Weeks 26 13 18 1 19 Last 3 Weeks 10 27 3 5 22

Toronto Raptors

Record: 36-18 — Road: 17-12 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and are now 36-18 overall. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks in a game that features a close spread. The Raptors are 3.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 102 points.

The Knicks have been average at best defensively this season. They are ranked between 11th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. DeMarre Carroll continues to make progress after having knee surgery, but he remains out for Toronto.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD — Salary: $8,800 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 1.05
DK — Salary: $8,300 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 1.14

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 36.9 38.4 1.5 38.7 1.8
FPPG (FD) 38.8 38.4 -0.4 40.5 1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 22.4 21.5 -1.0 22.2 -0.3

Lowry always seems to fly under the radar in daily fantasy. He has been extremely consistent all season, averaging over 36 fantasy points per game. He should continue his solid play tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 26th against point guards over the last three weeks.

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan

FD — Salary: $8,200 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 0.97
DK — Salary: $7,500 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 1.02

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 34.7 -1.5 36.4 0.2
FPPG (FD) 35.1 34.4 -0.8 36.0 0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 27.4 1.7 27.8 2.1

DeRozan is a borderline elite play on DraftKings, where he is priced at a slight discount. While I don’t mind playing both DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, if you are only targeting one, I’d give the edge to Lowry. DeRozan has the tougher matchup of the two, as he will be defended by Arron Afflalo.

Jonas Valanciunas

FD — Salary: $6,700 — Position: C — FP/Min: 1.02
DK — Salary: $6,100 — Position: C — FP/Min: 1.08

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 26.5 25.7 -0.8 27.6 1.1
FPPG (FD) 27.2 28.0 0.9 32.3 5.2
TO-Adj. Usage 16.6 17.6 1.0 16.3 -0.3

Valanciunas has really played well over his last five games, averaging 32.3 fantasy points in 27.6 minutes per contest, both of which are higher than his season averages. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked below the league average in fantasy points allowed to centers this season.

New York Knicks

Record: 24-33 — Home: 14-15 — Last 10: 2-8

The Knicks have lost eight of their last ten games and are quickly falling out of playoff contention in the surprisingly tough Eastern Conference. The Knicks are only 3.5-point underdogs tonight against the Raptors at home. While the game is expected to stay close, the Knicks have the second lowest implied team total on the board at only 98.5 points.

The Raptors have quietly established themselves as one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They are ranked ninth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While this is a difficult matchup, there is one option that is on my radar here.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

FD — Salary: $9,300 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 1.07
DK — Salary: $8,600 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 1.13

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 36.7 1.7 38.0 3.0
FPPG (FD) 37.6 43.6 6.0 45.5 7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.4 26.2 0.8 26.2 0.8

Anthony may be a little too expensive on FanDuel, but he is sitting at a very playable $8,600 on DraftKings. Anthony has really flourished under interim coach Kurt Rambis. Over his last five games, Anthony is averaging 45.5 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. His matchup against the Raptors is less than ideal, but the Knicks will need a big game from their superstar to keep tonight’s game close.

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Indiana Pacers Miami Heat
indiananba Vegas Total 200.5 miaminba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 99.60 Team Pace 95.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Justise Winslow Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 2 3 17 3 7 Opp. Season 7 21 5 13 12
Last 3 Weeks 2 26 11 28 12 Last 3 Weeks 18 20 21 13 2

Indiana Pacers

Record: 30-25 — Road: 13-16 — Last 10: 7-3

The Pacers had a bad start to the month of February, but have turned things around in their last ten games. They are now five games above .500, as they head to Miami to take on the Heat. This will be a pace-down game for Indiana, which is evidenced by their implied team total of 99.5 points. Not only is that the fourth lowest total on the board, but it is also 3.1 points lower than their scoring average.

The Heat have been banged up recently, but with Hassan Whiteside active, they are still one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, Miami is ranked ninth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Additionally, the Pacers are playing their second road game in as many nights. Overall, I’m not too high on the Pacers for fantasy purposes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

FD — Salary: $8,700 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 1.08
DK — Salary: $8,400 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 1.20

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 34.9 -0.5 33.7 -1.7
FPPG (FD) 38.3 35.6 -2.6 38.3 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 24.7 23.4 -1.3 25.5 0.8

As mentioned above, I’m down on the Pacers tonight. They are playing their second road game in as many nights and they are facing a stout defensive team in the Heat. I do like George for tournaments, though. He had a down game against the Magic last night, but has otherwise been in good form, averaging 38.3 fantasy points over his last five games.

Miami Heat

Record: 31-24 — Home: 17-11 — Last 10: 7-3

The Heat have actually played well recently, despite being without Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Wade is expected to return to the lineup tonight against the Pacers. The Heat are 1.5-point favorites in this matchup with an implied team total of 101 points. That may not seem too high, but it is actually 4.3 points above their scoring average.

The Pacers are ranked second in defensive efficiency, but they also play at the eighth fastest pace of any team. The two sort of offset each other, which is why the Pacers are only ranked tenth in fantasy points allowed per game. As mentioned earlier, Dwyane Wade is expected to play tonight, although he is listed as a game-time decision. If Wade is cleared to play, it is a good time to jump off of the Luol Deng bandwagon. Chris Bosh remains out for Miami, as he is still dealing with blood clots.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside

FD — Salary: $7,900 — Position: C — FP/Min: 1.16
DK — Salary: $7,400 — Position: C — FP/Min: 1.26

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 28.3 23.2 -5.1 24.6 -3.7
FPPG (FD) 32.9 35.0 2.1 35.6 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 18.0 3.3 19.1 4.4

Given the fact that Whiteside is still coming off the bench, he is strictly a tournament play tonight. His last game was a perfect example of why we like to use him in tournaments, though. He finished the game against the Wizards with 25 points and 23 rebounds off the bench.

Dwyane Wade

FD — Salary: $7,500 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 1.02
DK — Salary: $7,100 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 1.08

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 30.2 30.5 0.3 30.9 0.7
FPPG (FD) 31.0 35.5 4.6 28.2 -2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 27.0 29.0 2.1 26.6 -0.4

As long as Wade is cleared to play, we should consider him close to 100%. The Heat are not going to play him unless he feels good enough to give a full complement of minutes. With Bosh off the floor, Wade has had a usage rate over 33 over the last two seasons. That basically rivals that of DeMarcus Cousins and Russell Westbrook.

Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM

Boston Celtics Minnesota Timberwolves
bostonnba Vegas Total 217.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Sprd -4.5 Vegas Sprd 4.5
Team Proj. 110.8 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 101.30 Team Pace 96.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Karl-Anthony Towns Gorgui Dieng
Opp. Season 22 16 15 9 9 Opp. Season 1 7 19 26 25
Last 3 Weeks 13 24 9 9 14 Last 3 Weeks 20 10 12 4 30

Boston Celtics

Record: 33-24 — Road: 16-14 — Last 10: 7-3

The Celtics have won seven of their last ten games and are now nine games above .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on the struggling Timberwolves. The Celtics are 4.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 110.8 points.

The Timberwolves have been an exploitable matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. Given the Celtics’ high team total and the fact that the spread is close, this is a great spot for the Celtics’ offense as a whole.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD — Salary: $8,100 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 1.08
DK — Salary: $7,800 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 1.15

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 32.5 32.9 0.4 32.8 0.3
FPPG (FD) 35.3 36.5 1.2 41.1 5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.6 25.8 0.2 26.7 1.1

Thomas is coming off of a nice outing against the Nuggets last night. He has had a terrific five-game stretch, averaging 41.1 fantasy points in 32.8 minutes per contest. Thomas should see minutes in the low-30s again tonight against a Wolves’ defense that has not been efficient against point guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Jared Sullinger

FD — Salary: $6,000 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 1.09
DK — Salary: $5,700 — Position: C — FP/Min: 1.16

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 23.5 22.3 -1.2 25.1 1.6
FPPG (FD) 25.7 26.9 1.3 33.4 7.7
TO-Adj. Usage 18.8 21.1 2.3 21.5 2.8

Sullinger has made the most of his increased role with Kelly Olynyk out. Over his last five games, he is averaging 33.4 fantasy points, 25.1 minutes, and a TO-adjusted usage of 21.5. All three are markedly higher than his season averages. I’m still a bit hesitant to label him as an elite play, but he’s close to it tonight against the Wolves.

Jae Crowder

FD — Salary: $5,900 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 0.82
DK — Salary: $5,700 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 0.88

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 31.1 -1.0 33.3 1.2
FPPG (FD) 26.5 24.0 -2.5 27.1 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 14.6 -1.0 14.6 -1.0

This is a great time to take advantage of the fact that Crowder’s price has come way down across the industry. He seemed a bit tired heading into the All-Star break, but he has now scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last four games. Crowder is a viable mid-range small forward play tonight.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 17-39 — Home: 9-20 — Last 10: 3-7

The Wolves have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 17-39 overall. Tayshaun Prince and Zach LaVine will continue to rotate starts, so tonight LaVine will get the nod. The Wolves have not been in great form coming into this game, but are only listed as 4.5-point underdogs. Their implied team total of 106.3 points is 5.8 points above their scoring average.

The Celtics are similar to the Pacers in that they are ranked high in defensive efficiency, but play at a very fast pace. Their pace allows us to target players against them in daily fantasy. As long as this game stays competitive, it will be filled with viable fantasy options. Kevin Garnett, Nikola Pekovic, and Nemanja Bjelica have all been out for a while. All three can be considered doubtful until we hear otherwise.

Elite Plays

Gorgui Dieng

FD — Salary: $6,200 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 0.87
DK — Salary: $6,700 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 0.93

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 25.9 35.4 9.5 36.4 10.5
FPPG (FD) 22.6 33.1 10.4 33.5 10.9
TO-Adj. Usage 13.1 14.5 1.4 13.7 0.6

After scoring at least 33 fantasy points in seven of his previous nine games, Dieng put up a dud the other night against the Knicks. He only scored 9.1 fantasy points in 24 minutes. We shouldn’t let a single outing cloud our judgment, though. He has been seeing minutes in the upper-30s with Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic out. I expect a nice bounce-back effort from him tonight against the Celtics.

Zach LaVine

FD — Salary: $4,900 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 0.86
DK — Salary: $5,200 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 0.92

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 24.5 30.7 6.2 32.0 7.5
FPPG (FD) 21.1 25.1 4.1 23.9 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 20.5 -1.5 19.3 -2.7

LaVine is expected to draw the start at shooting guard tonight, making him one of the better value plays on the board. He has played well, both as a starter and as a reserve, and he should see 30+ minutes of action tonight. His matchup against Avery Bradley is a difficult one, but the value is too good to pass up.

Secondary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD — Salary: $9,000 — Position: C — FP/Min: 1.12
DK — Salary: $8,500 — Position: C — FP/Min: 1.22

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 35.4 5.0 36.5 6.1
FPPG (FD) 34.2 43.3 9.1 45.1 10.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.0 21.5 1.5 22.7 2.7

Towns has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 43.3 fantasy points in 35.4 minutes per contest. He is a borderline elite play tonight against the Celtics, who have struggled to contain opposing frontcourts all season. The one concern with Towns earlier in the season was his playing time, but that is no longer an issue.

Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM

Golden State Warriors Atlanta Hawks
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 224.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 224.0
Vegas Sprd -7.5 Vegas Sprd 7.5
Team Proj. 115.8 Team Proj. 108.3
Team Pace 102.30 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Brandon Rush Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 6 20 18 18 24 Opp. Season 26 12 13 14 19
Last 3 Weeks 3 4 23 30 11 Last 3 Weeks 30 28 8 18 26

Golden State Warriors

Record: 49-5 — Road: 25-5 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors were blown out by the Blazers in Portland, but bounced back with an impressive win over the Clippers in Los Angeles. They are still on pace to clear 70 wins this season, but they have to avoid those losing streaks. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. This game should be played a fast pace and the spread is set at only 7.5-points.

The Hawks continue to climb up the defensive rankings. They are now ranked seventh in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. Atlanta’s biggest weakness this season has been on the glass. While the matchup may not look great on paper, the Warriors are matchup-proof and with the projected pace of this game, this should be a goldmine for fantasy production.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD — Salary: $10,600 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 1.41
DK — Salary: $10,700 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 1.54

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 33.7 32.9 -0.8 33.5 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 47.5 46.0 -1.4 49.0 1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 27.8 0.3 29.7 2.2

Curry may not have a great matchup when you look at the DvP rankings, but we can throw those out the window. The Warriors have the highest team total on the board and we have seen Curry go off in much tougher matchups. The main reason to like Curry tonight is that we can expect a full complement of minutes from him in a game that features a 7.5-point spread.

Draymond Green

FD — Salary: $8,400 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 1.14
DK — Salary: $8,900 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 1.25

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 34.1 31.9 -2.2 32.9 -1.2
FPPG (FD) 38.8 34.3 -4.5 30.9 -7.8
TO-Adj. Usage 16.3 13.4 -2.9 13.4 -2.9

Green is a borderline elite play either way, but would see a nice boost if Andrew Bogut is ruled out. Green hasn’t exactly been producing at the same level that he was earlier in the season, but we no longer have to pay a premium for him. His price has come way down on both FanDuel ($8,400) and DraftKings ($8,900).

Secondary Plays

Klay Thompson

FD — Salary: $7,100 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 0.92
DK — Salary: $7,700 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 1.00

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 32.5 -0.3 34.1 1.3
FPPG (FD) 30.1 32.8 2.7 31.2 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 21.9 24.3 2.4 23.2 1.4

Thompson is one of those players that I always have a tough time targeting in cash games. He has a relatively high floor, but every now and then he will have a dud outing that just kills your lineup. I will be looking elsewhere in cash games, but I do like the upside that he provides in tournaments.

Harrison Barnes

FD — Salary: $4,500 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 0.72
DK — Salary: $5,000 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 0.76

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 29.4 30.5 1.1 31.2 1.8
FPPG (FD) 21.3 18.9 -2.5 21.7 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.6 13.0 -1.6 13.5 -1.2

If you are looking for a cheap small forward option on FanDuel, it’s hard to ignore the $4,500 price tag for Barnes. His production is slightly up over his last five games, averaging 21.7 fantasy points in 31.2 minutes per contest. Barnes would also see a small bump in minutes if Andrew Bogut is unable to suit up tonight.

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 31-26 — Home: 17-11 — Last 10: 4-6

The Hawks have lost six of their last ten games, but are still five games above .500 on the season. They draw one of their toughest matchups of the season tonight, as they take on the Warriors at home. The Hawks are sizable underdogs here, but they are projected to score 108.3 points. Not only is that the fifth highest team total on the board, but it is also 5.6 points above their scoring average.

The Warriors are yet another team that is ranked in the top five in terms of defensive efficiency, yet their pace allows us to target players against them. Golden State is ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 16th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks’ offense is in a good spot as a whole. Jeff Teague has been dealing with a wrist injury, but is expected to play tonight.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

FD — Salary: $8,100 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 1.14
DK — Salary: $8,100 — Position: PF — FP/Min: 1.22

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 31.8 -0.8 35.4 2.8
FPPG (FD) 37.1 31.6 -5.5 39.0 1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 19.7 -0.6 21.7 1.5

Millsap is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. For whatever reason, his ownership has been down a bit over the last few games. He is fully over his ankle injury and his production has shown that in his last five games. In a big game against the Warriors, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Millsap play 36-38 minutes tonight.

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague

FD — Salary: $6,200 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 0.95
DK — Salary: $6,000 — Position: PG — FP/Min: 1.03

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 28.4 28.2 -0.2 28.7 0.3
FPPG (FD) 26.9 30.5 3.6 30.0 3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 21.7 23.5 1.8 24.8 3.0

Teague is a very interesting tournament play. He only had 14 fantasy points the other night against the Bucks, but he hurt his wrist and only ended up playing 18 minutes. Prior to that game, he had scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last four games. His ownership should be down tonight, even though he draws a favorable matchup against the Warriors.

Kent Bazemore

FD — Salary: $4,800 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 0.81
DK — Salary: $5,200 — Position: SF — FP/Min: 0.88

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 28.4 29.0 0.6 29.8 1.4
FPPG (FD) 22.9 21.2 -1.8 20.2 -2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 14.3 -1.7 13.3 -2.7

The Warriors love to play small ball (and will be forced to if Andrew Bogut is out). It will be interesting to see if the Hawks decide to play small as well. If they do, I could see Bazemore playing 32-34 minutes in what should be one of the fastest paced games of the night. He doesn’t seem to be on many people’s radar, but he’s a viable secondary play in all league formats.

Kyle Korver

FD — Salary: $4,200 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 0.60
DK — Salary: $4,400 — Position: SG — FP/Min: 0.66

Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games L10 +/- Last 5 Games L5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 30.3 -0.1 35.1 4.7
FPPG (FD) 18.3 18.5 0.3 24.0 5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 11.8 12.1 0.3 12.1 0.3

Korver is finally starting to make some shots. Over his last five games, he is averaging 24 fantasy points in 35.1 minutes per contest. His usage rate is also up during that stretch. Korver is a borderline elite play in all league formats, especially if you need a value play at shooting guard.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious