Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-02-28 02:59:41

Jump to Page 1 2

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Philadelphia 76ers
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 230.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 230.0
Vegas Spread -13.5 Vegas Spread 13.5
Team Total 121.8 Team Total 108.3
Pace +/- 1.9 Pace +/- 4.2
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Dario Saric Jahlil Okafor
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 15 19 13 7 29 Adj. DvP 13 8 22 10 21
DRPM 0.04 -1.79 3.68 -1.27 -1.34 DRPM -0.03 -0.73 1.66 4.76 3.40

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors picked up a fairly easy win against the Nets the other night and were able to rest Kevin Durant in the process. We can expect a lot more of that moving forwards, especially in games that the Warriors should be able to win short-handed. Tonight would be a perfect opportunity to rest one of the other big four, so make sure to keep your eyes on the injury news leading up to lineup lock. For our purposes, we will assume that everyone from the Warriors will be able to play. They draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are a much different team defensively without Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid in the lineup. The Warriors come into the game as 13.5-point favorites with an implied total of 121.8 points, which is easily the highest in the slate.

Stephen Curry has played his best basketball of the season over the last month of play and draws an exploitable matchup against the likes of T.J. McConnell and Sergio Rodriguez. The biggest issue with Curry is that there are two plays at his price point that I slightly prefer over him at point guard – Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas. Curry still deserves tournament consideration, but I wouldn’t consider him a building block tonight. Klay Thompson is averaging 34 fantasy points in his last five games and gets to match up against the aging Gerald Henderson. Thompson is my favorite play from Golden State and he can be targeted in all league formats. Kevin Durant is expected to play tonight, after missing Saturday’s game with a hand injury. His price is affordable across the industry, but this is a slate that is seriously lacking value. Unless some value opens up throughout the day, Durant is more of a tournament play than a cash game option. Draymond Green is coming off of his worst three-game stretch of the season. He has failed to score 20 fantasy points in three straight games. For now, I will be avoiding him in cash games and will only have 5-10% exposure to him in tournaments. Zaza Pachulia is an interesting punt play on DraftKings at $3,900. We know that the Sixers are short-handed in their frontcourt and he is averaging 23 fantasy points in his last five games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,300 $9,900 1.21 33.4 -1.8 40.6 0.9 30.1% 1.1% 15 0.04
Klay Thompson $7,100 $7,000 0.90 34.0 -2.4 30.5 3.7 24.2% 0.2% 19 -1.79
Kevin Durant $10,300 $10,000 1.36 34.1 -2.7 46.4 1.3 27.9% 0.7% 13 3.68
Draymond Green $7,200 $7,700 1.08 32.5 -8.6 35.2 -13.8 18.9% 2.6% 7 -1.27
Zaza Pachulia $4,500 $3,900 0.95 18.8 0.4 17.9 4.9 14.6% -1.3% 29 -1.34
Andre Iguodala $4,500 $4,600 0.71 25.7 -0.8 18.1 4.2 12.4% 3.5% 13 N/A
Patrick McCaw $3,600 $3,000 0.53 12.7 5.6 6.8 4.8 13.3% 0.8% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Klay Thompson

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green (GPP), Zaza Pachulia (DK)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have little to play for at this point of the season. They have a delicate balance between trying to develop their young players, while making sure they don’t risk any injuries to their future (Joel Embiid). They come into tonight’s game as 13.5-point underdogs against the Warriors, which is actually a fair spread considering the fact that Golden State was favored by 21 points against the Nets in a game without Kevin Durant. The Sixers should have some success on the offensive end of the floor, as they have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 6.7 points above their season average. The obvious concern here is a potential blowout, but that would likely impact the minutes of the Warriors’ players more than it would the minutes of the young Sixers’ players.

T.J. McConnell continues to play well as the starting point guard, averaging 30 fantasy points in his last five games. He draws a nice matchup against Stephen Curry, who has never been known for his play at the defensive end of the floor. McConnell grades out as a nice value, but he plays the deepest position in all of fantasy basketball. Gerald Henderson is averaging 29 minutes in his last five games. If he sees 30 minutes against the Warriors, we have to like his chances to reach value at $3,700 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings. Robert Covington is finally back in my good graces, after a lengthy separation between the two of us earlier in the season. He has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 39 fantasy points during that stretch. A lot of people will be scared off of his price tonight, but it’s full steam ahead for Covington. Dario Saric is in the same boat as Covington. They could both be priced above $8,000 by the end of the week. Saric has scored at least 34 fantasy points in six straight games. I’m not overly concerned about a matchup against Draymond Green. Jahlil Okafor struggled when everyone took him on Friday night and then had a monster game against the Knicks on Saturday night. He is a volatile player that is best suited for GPPs tonight against the Warriors. Richaun Holmes has offered nice value off the bench, but I’m worried about his minutes in a game against a Warriors’ team that plays a lot of small ball.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,800 $5,500 0.82 25.1 6.7 20.7 9.7 19.3% -0.9% 13 -0.03
Gerald Henderson $3,700 $3,400 0.67 24.3 4.4 16.3 3.2 17.9% 3.9% 8 -0.73
Robert Covington $7,100 $7,300 0.83 31.4 2.3 26.1 13.2 18.1% 3.7% 22 1.66
Dario Saric $7,000 $7,600 0.85 24.8 7.7 21.0 16.1 22.8% 3.7% 10 4.76
Jahlil Okafor $5,700 $5,800 0.89 23.1 -0.6 20.6 3.3 22.5% 2.8% 21 3.40
Nik Stauskas $4,100 $3,800 0.60 26.9 -0.9 16.3 3.2 16.4% 2.2% 8 N/A
Richaun Holmes $4,100 $4,500 0.96 16.2 3.2 15.5 4.5 17.3% -4.7% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Robert Covington, Dario Saric

Secondary Plays – T.J. McConnell, Gerald Henderson, Jahlil Okafor (GPP)

Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Cleveland Cavaliers
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 218.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 218.5
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 105.3 Team Total 113.3
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Giannis Antetokounmpo Michael Beasley Thon Maker Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Channing Frye Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 28 24 4 9 Adj. DvP 3 10 23 26 26
DRPM -1.82 -0.06 0.80 -0.93 1.91 DRPM -1.88 -0.62 1.98 -0.80 -0.26

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and have already decided to rest Khris Middleton for tonight’s game against the Cavaliers. Targeting mediocre teams against the Cavaliers in Cleveland doesn’t sound like a great idea, but the Bucks are only 8-point underdogs tonight with an implied total of 105.3 points. Cleveland hasn’t been nearly as good defensively this season, ranking 20th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. With only seven games on the schedule tonight, there are certainly some intriguing plays from Milwaukee.

Matthew Dellavedova has really been struggling recently, averaging only 13 fantasy points in his last five games. While I certainly wouldn’t consider him a core play tonight, he should see 26-30 minutes against a Cavaliers’ team that doesn’t defend point guards well. Better yet, he is facing his former team, so he has some added motivation to play well. Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored 47, 52, 64, and 50 fantasy points in his last four outings against the Cavaliers. He seems to like going up against LeBron James and I see him as an elite tournament play tonight. Michael Beasley is expected to start at power forward and with Khris Middleton out, he should step in and play minutes in the mid to upper 20s. Beasley is a volatile player, but he provides great upside in tournaments. My favorite play here is Greg Monroe, who is finally starting to play more minutes. In his last five games, he is averaging 29 minutes and 36 fantasy points per contest. Monroe is an elite tournament play tonight and a borderline cash game option on DraftKings at only $5,900.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Matthew Dellavedova $3,700 $3,600 0.65 26.5 2.3 17.3 -4.4 19.1% -4.5% 25 -1.82
Tony Snell $4,100 $3,100 0.51 28.6 0.4 14.7 3.1 11.4% 0.5% 28 -0.06
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,900 $10,700 1.31 35.4 0.8 46.4 1.2 29.5% -1.7% 24 0.80
Michael Beasley $5,500 $5,200 0.94 17.3 9.6 16.2 9.7 23.8% -2.6% 4 -0.93
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,200 0.84 7.7 8.3 6.4 4.6 17.2% -0.4% 9 1.91
Greg Monroe $6,400 $5,900 1.13 22.0 7.3 25.0 10.8 23.5% -0.4% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP), Greg Monroe (GPP), Michael Beasley (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (Cash), Greg Monroe (Cash), Michael Beasley (Cash), Matthew Dellavedova

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers weren’t able to make a splash at the trade deadline, but they did acquire Deron Williams and it isn’t even going to cost them anything (other than his salary). Williams is not expected to play tonight, but he should be available to play in their next game. The big question mark tonight is the availability of LeBron James. He missed Saturday night’s game with an illness and didn’t participate in shoot-around this morning. He is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game and luckily, this is one of the first games to tip-off tonight, so we should know his status in advance of lineup lock. The Cavaliers are currently listed as 8-point favorites with an implied total of 113.3 points, but those would obviously change if LeBron is eventually ruled out.

The theme of the Cavaliers’ breakdown is at the very least, consistent. Obviously, the fantasy appeal of their players hinges on the status of LeBron James. With Kevin Love out as well, there could be a ton of usage to go around in this offense. With LeBron and Love off the floor this season, Kyrie Irving has a usage rate of 46.5%, while averaging 55 fantasy points per 36 minutes. I see Irving as an elite play even if James plays, but he would obviously become close to a lock play if James it ruled out. Iman Shumpert, Richard Jefferson, and Derrick Williams all see small minute, usage, and production boosts with James off the floor. If he is ruled out, they would both become viable punt plays at their respective positions. If James is active, he makes for an intriguing tournament play. DFS players are always hesitant to play superstars when they have been listed as questionable all day. Channing Frye’s appeal also hinges on James, although he becomes a better play if James is active. Frye’s usage dips 4.4% and his fantasy points per 36 minutes dips 5.8 points without James on the floor. Tristan Thompson has played well since Kevin Love went down with his injury. His price is up on FanDuel, but $5,700 is certainly an appealing price on DraftKings against a Bucks’ team that is ranked 26th against centers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,100 $9,000 1.08 35.1 -0.7 37.8 5.2 31.8% 2.7% 3 -1.88
Iman Shumpert $3,500 $3,500 0.60 25.3 -1.0 15.2 -3.6 14.1% 2.3% 10 -0.62
LeBron James $11,000 $10,900 1.28 37.5 -1.9 48.1 1.2 32.8% -1.5% 23 1.98
Channing Frye $5,300 $5,300 0.84 19.0 7.7 16.0 5.0 19.1% -0.8% 26 -0.80
Tristan Thompson $6,300 $5,700 0.79 30.1 3.9 23.8 6.2 11.1% 0.4% 26 -0.26
Derrick Williams $4,000 $3,600 0.71 16.7 7.2 11.8 3.7 17.8% -4.2% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye (if James is active), LeBron James (if active), Iman Shumpert, Richard Jefferson, and Derrick Williams (if James is out)

Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors New York Knicks
torontonba Vegas Total 212.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Team Total 107.5 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- -1.4
Proj. Starter Cory Joseph DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Lance Thomas Willy Hernangomez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 20 28 27 25 Adj. DvP 8 2 17 14 11
DRPM -3.06 -1.14 -1.92 -1.18 1.41 DRPM -3.09 -2.65 1.03 0.52 0.42

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after beating the Blazers in Toronto last night. Kyle Lowry has missed the last two games with a wrist injury, one that he injured prior to the All-Star break. It’s a big strange that he was able to participate in the All-Star festivities, but has since been unable to play. He is listed as questionable tonight, but it’s hard to imagine anything changing enough within the last 24 hours for him to play. We should receive an update closer to tip-off, but for now I am going to consider him closer to doubtful than questionable. The Raptors draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 25th in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. Toronto has an implied total of 107.5 points, which is a high total for a team that is likely missing their second highest scorer.

If we are under the assumption that Kyle Lowry is out tonight, we should be familiar with the drill. Cory Joseph becomes a great option at point guard, as he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in five of the last six games that Lowry has missed. Joseph’s price is up across the industry, but that could help lower his ownership a bit. DeMar DeRozan averages 50.7 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Lowry off the floor this season. Even at his elevated price point, he would be an elite play at shooting guard if Lowry is ruled out again. DeMarre Carroll and P.J. Tucker should both see minutes in the upper 20s, but it’s hard to trust either of them at this point. Serge Ibaka has become the number two option in the Raptors’ offense without Lowry and he has played well in his short-stint with Toronto. Dollar for dollar, he may be my favorite power forward in the slate. Jonas Valanciunas has an attractive price tag on DraftKings, but he hasn’t played more than 22 minutes in any of his last four games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Cory Joseph $4,400 $5,200 0.74 23.0 5.3 17.0 1.1 20.3% -1.6% 11 -3.06
DeMar DeRozan $8,500 $8,900 1.12 35.6 0.4 39.8 -4.4 34.2% -0.2% 20 -1.14
DeMarre Carroll $4,300 $4,100 0.66 27.4 7.7 18.2 1.8 15.2% -4.2% 28 -1.92
Serge Ibaka $5,900 $6,200 0.92 30.7 0.3 28.3 0.3 20.2% -2.1% 27 -1.18
Jonas Valanciunas $5,600 $4,900 0.97 26.7 -3.5 26.0 -3.2 18.8% 0.8% 25 1.41
P.J. Tucker $4,700 $4,800 0.66 28.4 -3.3 18.7 0.9 12.1% 0.1% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Cory Joseph, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka

Secondary Plays – DeMarre Carroll, Jonas Valanciunas (DK)

New York Knicks

At one point in the early part of December, the Knicks were looking like a playoff team that could potentially challenge for home-court advantage in the first round. The playoffs are nothing but a pipe dream at this point and now it sounds like Joakim Noah is going to miss the rest of the season. Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) is also expected to miss tonight’s game. It will be interesting to see what the organization does from here, but Knicks’ fans can’t be too hopeful for the future. Tonight the Knicks host the Raptors, who may also be playing short-handed. Toronto has an above-average defense, but the Knicks still have an implied total of 104.5 points, which isn’t terrible given their current roster.

The Knicks waived Brandon Jennings this morning, which could be good news for Derrick Rose in the short term. Rose is averaging 33 minutes in his last five games and Cory Joseph has one of the worst DRPMs of any player in the NBA this season. If Kyle Lowry is indeed out, Rose becomes a fantastic play in all formats. Courtney Lee could end up playing minutes in the mid 30s tonight and he has been in good form over his last five games, averaging 25 fantasy points per contest. Carmelo Anthony doesn’t have the best track record against P.J. Tucker, but his usage will be off the charts with Kristaps Porzingis out. Anthony is coming off of a 46 fantasy point outing against the Sixers. In a slate that lacks value, a lot of eyes will be on Lance Thomas, who is averaging 33 minutes in his last two games. Thomas may not have a high ceiling, but a min-salary player that should see 30 minutes is hard to pass on. Willy Hernangomez was outplayed by Kyle O’Quinn the other night, but he’s still the preferred target of the two. Hernangomez is still priced below $6,000 on FanDuel.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,100 $6,300 0.88 32.2 0.7 28.5 -1.0 27.8% -2.9% 8 -3.09
Courtney Lee $4,700 $4,400 0.61 31.3 1.8 19.2 6.0 14.4% 1.9% 2 -2.65
Carmelo Anthony $8,200 $8,500 1.04 34.2 4.0 35.6 4.1 29.6% 0.7% 17 1.03
Lance Thomas $3,600 $3,000 0.48 18.4 6.6 8.8 5.0 13.3% -1.7% 14 0.52
Willy Hernangomez $5,900 $6,800 1.02 16.1 8.0 16.5 9.9 18.9% -2.3% 11 0.42
Kyle O’Quinn $4,500 $5,200 1.15 15.5 4.2 17.9 6.2 19.3% -2.3% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Willy Hernangomez (FD), Lance Thomas (DK)

Secondary Plays – Willy Hernangomez (DK), Lance Thomas (FD), Courtney Lee

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics
atlantanba Vegas Total 212.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 108.3
Pace +/- -0.2 Pace +/- 0.7
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Jaylen Brown Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 14 10 5 23 Adj. DvP 18 23 26 13 12
DRPM -4.40 0.28 1.18 2.49 0.86 DRPM -3.39 -0.56 3.01 3.82 2.31

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have lost three games in a row and six of their last ten. The Eastern Conference has suddenly gotten a lot better at the top and the Hawks could end up going on the road in the first round of the playoffs. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hawks come into the game as 4.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 103.8 points. Thabo Sefolosha is expected to rejoin the starting lineup, which will send Tim Hardaway back to the bench for the time being.

Dennis Schroder was suspended one game for not returning from All-Star break on time and then was benched to start the Hawks’ last game. He ended up outplaying Malcolm Delaney though and is fully expected to be back in the starting lineup tonight. Schroder is one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate, as we love targeting point guards against the Celtics. There is also some history between Schroder and Isaiah Thomas, so they should both be fired up for tonight’s game. With Thabo Sefolosha back in the starting lineup, I have a hard time paying $5,400+ for Tim Hardaway off the bench. Sefolosha, on the other hand, is close to minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Paul Millsap hasn’t played well since the Hawks traded for Ersan Ilyasova. While he should be just fine moving forward, the Celtics have been tough on opposing power forwards. This is a near-perfect matchup for Dwight Howard, but he has struggled with consistency all season long. He could play anywhere from 24-35 minutes and score between 20-45 fantasy points. That range of outcomes makes him a better GPP play than a cash game option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,500 $6,300 0.95 30.9 2.9 29.3 -0.1 29.9% -0.5% 22 -4.40
Kent Bazemore $4,400 $4,200 0.75 27.3 -0.6 20.6 -1.9 20.7% -1.0% 14 0.28
Thabo Sefolosha $3,500 $3,300 0.71 25.6 -5.5 18.3 -6.9 14.0% 1.8% 10 1.18
Paul Millsap $7,400 $7,200 1.04 34.0 -0.8 35.4 -4.7 24.7% -1.5% 5 2.49
Dwight Howard $7,000 $6,900 1.11 29.4 -0.1 32.7 -4.1 18.1% -2.2% 23 0.86
Ersan Ilyasova $4,800 $4,200 0.90 26.7 -7.2 24.1 -7.4 22.6% 2.4% 5 N/A
Tim Hardaway $5,500 $5,400 0.78 25.2 8.0 19.7 5.0 22.6% -0.1% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard (GPP), Thabo Sefolosha, Ersan Ilyasova (DK)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics keep winning basketball games and they have been able to do it without Avery Bradley. They have won seven of their last ten and have moved up to second place in the East. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Hawks, but they do get to face them at home. On the season, Atlanta is ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Celtics have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and nearly identical to their season average.

Isaiah Thomas has been off of most people’s radar over the last couple of weeks thanks to a huge increase in price. I expect his ownership to go back up tonight, as his price has come down to $9,300 on FanDuel and $8,700 on DraftKings. We know that Dennis Schroder is one of the worst on-ball defenders in the NBA and both of these point guards should have success in this spot. One of my favorite tournament strategies is to pair opposing point guards in the same lineup. Jaylen Brown should play close to 30 minutes tonight with Avery Bradley and Gerald Green expected to miss the game. Jae Crowder has been ice cold recently, but he did bounce back with a nice outing against the Pistons last night. He is a viable play in all formats tonight. Marcus Smart has quietly played well recently, averaging 29 fantasy points in his last five games. He is slightly underpriced on DraftKings at $5,600. The Monstars (Space Jam) must have stolen Al Horford’s talents. Until MJ and his crew can get Horford’s talents back, he can be avoided in all formats. Kelly Olynyk is the preferred play and he is considerably cheaper than Horford.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,300 $8,700 1.20 34.5 0.0 41.4 -3.1 35.1% -0.6% 18 -3.39
Jaylen Brown $3,600 $3,900 0.68 15.9 10.8 10.9 8.9 17.3% 1.2% 23 -0.56
Jae Crowder $5,800 $5,300 0.78 32.5 -0.1 25.4 -1.3 16.6% 1.0% 26 3.01
Amir Johnson $3,500 $3,500 0.81 19.7 -1.4 16.0 0.2 14.3% -0.3% 13 3.82
Al Horford $6,100 $5,900 0.98 32.9 -2.0 32.2 -12.2 21.9% -3.4% 12 2.31
Marcus Smart $6,100 $5,600 0.78 31.1 2.0 24.2 5.0 20.1% 1.8% 23 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,700 $4,700 0.88 21.4 3.2 18.8 2.3 19.0% 0.1% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart (DK), Kelly Olynyk (GPP)

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Miami Heat Dallas Mavericks
miaminba Vegas Total 200.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 100.8 Team Total 99.3
Pace +/- -5.2 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Dion Waiters Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 6 3 8 4 Adj. DvP 6 5 4 16 18
DRPM -2.41 -0.05 0.29 -0.08 0.50 DRPM -2.47 -1.02 -0.16 1.60 2.22

Miami Heat

After their incredible winning streak, many expected the Heat to cool off, but they just keep churning out wins. They have won three in a row and are closing the gap between themselves and the Pistons for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. While I like their chances to make the postseason, tonight’s game against the Mavericks could put some of us to sleep. These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and both defenses are ranked inside the top six in points allowed per game. The Heat have an implied total of only 100.8 points, which is the second lowest in the slate. The only potential plays here are on DraftKings. Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Hassan Whiteside, and Tyler Johnson are all priced down thanks to the difficult matchup. I won’t have much exposure in cash games, but I may have a few shares of each in tournaments. James Johnson doesn’t grade out as the worst play, but if I am targeting a power forward from this game, I would rather use the one from the Mavericks (Dirk Nowitzki).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,700 $6,800 0.98 34.1 -1.6 33.4 -1.8 28.9% 1.8% 1 -2.41
Rodney McGruder $3,700 $3,000 0.54 26.0 -2.8 13.9 0.0 12.3% 2.1% 6 -0.05
Dion Waiters $7,200 $6,700 0.89 30.9 2.3 27.6 7.6 27.4% 3.1% 3 0.29
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.55 15.6 -2.5 8.6 2.5 13.4% 0.3% 8 -0.08
Hassan Whiteside $8,700 $8,000 1.17 32.8 -0.4 38.3 0.1 21.2% -2.3% 4 0.50
James Johnson $6,100 $6,000 0.94 26.4 1.7 24.8 1.7 23.2% 2.6% 8 N/A
Tyler Johnson $5,700 $5,300 0.87 30.7 -0.1 26.6 0.6 21.7% -2.4% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (DK), Dion Waiters (DK), Hassan Whiteside (DK), Tyler Johnson (DK)

Dallas Mavericks

After the Pelicans traded for DeMarcus Cousins, everyone expected it to be a two-team race the for eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. However, after both teams have stumbled out of the gates after the All-Star break, the Mavericks could sneak up and surprise everyone. They made a terrific trade to acquire Nerlens Noel and they are currently only 2.5 games behind the Nuggets in the standings. It should be a fun race to watch over the next month and a half. Unfortunately, tonight’s game offers very little to get excited about in DFS. The over/under for the game is set at a measly 200 points and I have already voiced my concerns about the expected pace. Seth Curry has outplayed Yogi Ferrell recently, but I don’t want to pay a premium for Curry in a subpar matchup. The same can be said for Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes. The only two plays of note here are both in the frontcourt. Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 33 fantasy points in his last five games and is only $5,600 on DraftKings. Nerlens Noel played 30 minutes in his Mavericks’ debut the other night. While they needed his size to combat the likes of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, I expect Noel to play 26-32 minutes a night moving forward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $5,300 $5,100 0.72 24.6 4.2 17.8 2.7 21.8% -1.9% 6 -2.47
Seth Curry $6,000 $5,700 0.72 28.6 4.3 20.6 7.2 19.9% 0.5% 5 -1.02
Wesley Matthews $5,500 $5,200 0.69 35.3 -2.5 24.5 -0.5 20.2% -2.1% 4 -0.16
Harrison Barnes $6,100 $6,000 0.82 35.8 -1.0 29.4 -4.3 24.8% -1.2% 16 1.60
Dirk Nowitzki $6,200 $5,600 0.99 26.2 0.7 25.9 6.8 24.5% 1.8% 18 2.22
Nerlens Noel $5,900 $5,300 1.02 19.8 10.3 20.2 9.2 18.7% -0.2% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Dirk Nowitzki (DK)

Secondary Plays – Dirk Nowitzki (FD), Harrison Barnes (FD), Nerlens Noel

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious