NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 1st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Bismack Biyombo | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 16 | 23 | 26 | 28 | DvP | 30 | 28 | 19 | 29 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 23 | 4 | 21 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 21 | |
Orlando Magic
We have a four-game slate on tap to open the new year. We start with the Magic and Nets in what could be the best game to target tonight. Both teams are ranked in the top seven in pace of play and they are both ranked in the bottom five in points allowed per game. The icing on the cake is the 1.5-point spread. We should expect a close, high-scoring game with plenty of fantasy production to go around. The Magic have an implied total of 109 points, which is the fourth highest on the board and four points above their season average.
Elfrid Payton has been an auto-play for me in tournaments ever since Nikola Vucevic went down with his injury. His splits without Vucevic on the floor are impressive – 1.10 FP/min with a 22% usage rate. Payton’s price has come up, but it’s warranted with his recent play. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 27th in efficiency and 28th in DvP against point guards this season. Payton is an elite tournament play on FanDuel ($8,000) and an elite play in all formats on DraftKings ($7,100).
Evan Fournier has played 32 and 36 minutes in his last two games, scoring 31 and 36 fantasy points. He’s no longer on a minute restriction and his price is still affordable across the industry. Fournier could fly under the radar a bit too, which never hurts. Jonathon Simmons is overpriced at the moment. He also draws the worst individual matchup of the five starters. Aaron Gordon is volatile, but is coming off of a 55 fantasy point outing against the Heat. He should get plenty of easy looks at the rim tonight against the Nets. Bismack Biyombo has scored at least 31 fantasy points in three straight games, but is no longer a great value play. His price has shot up, which makes him more of a secondary play tonight.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Vucevic (Out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.0 (2 of 8)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $8,000 | $7,100 | $14,600 | 29.5 | 13.2 | 29.6 | 7.5 | 0.99 | 20.8% | 27 | 28 | 3 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,100 | $5,900 | $11,500 | 28.7 | -1.4 | 32.6 | 0.4 | 0.88 | 20.5% | 24 | 16 | 23 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $6,100 | $6,100 | $11,900 | 23.4 | -3.3 | 29.2 | 2.9 | 0.80 | 20.5% | 8 | 23 | 4 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,900 | $7,900 | $14,500 | 35.3 | 3.8 | 33.3 | -0.4 | 1.06 | 19.6% | 24 | 26 | 21 |
| Bismack Biyombo | $6,500 | $5,600 | $11,400 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 0.86 | 10.4% | 26 | 28 | 16 |
| D.J. Augustin | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 16.0 | -2.6 | 20.8 | -4.3 | 0.77 | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon
Secondary Plays – Bismack Biyombo
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have lost eight of their last ten games, but draw one of the best matchups on the board. The Magic are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Brooklyn is also playing at home, so they should be able to control the pace. The Nets have an implied total of 110.5 points, which is the third highest overall and three points above their season average.
Spencer Dinwiddie hasn’t played more than 29 minutes in any of his last four games, but draws a terrific matchup against the Magic. Elfrid Payton has one of the worst DRPM grades of any player in basketball and as a whole the Magic are ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. I wish he played a few more minutes, but Dinwiddie should be efficient with his playing time tonight. Allen Crabbe is firmly in play on DraftKings ($4,200) in a game where he should play 30 minutes in a favorable matchup.
DeMarre Carroll is an excellent contrarian play at small forward. Like Dinwiddie, his minutes aren’t quite where we want them to be, but his price is at one of it’s lowest points of the season. If he plays 28-30 minutes against the Magic, he could return value and more. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is always underpriced on DraftKings and that’s the case again tonight. In close games recently, he has been playing 32-34 minutes, which helps boost his floor and his ceiling. Caris LeVert is averaging 35 fantasy points over his last four games and is viable in tournaments, but his price is a bit too high to make him a great point-per-dollar cash game option.
Notable Injuries
D’Angelo Russell (Out)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 3.1 (3 of 8)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,700 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 28.1 | -3.3 | 27.0 | -0.3 | 1.04 | 22.5% | 24 | 30 | 26 |
| Allen Crabbe | $5,100 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 20.6 | -1.7 | 28.5 | -0.6 | 0.72 | 16.5% | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,200 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 25.4 | -10.2 | 28.7 | -3.8 | 0.89 | 17.7% | 29 | 19 | 30 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,400 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 29.4 | 4.1 | 28.1 | -1.4 | 1.04 | 20.3% | 23 | 29 | 28 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 16.5 | -3.0 | 18.8 | -1.3 | 0.88 | 14.8% | 23 | 20 | 21 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,800 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 25.5 | 9.3 | 26.9 | 1.1 | 0.95 | 19.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Harris | $3,700 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 16.7 | -0.2 | 24.2 | -0.8 | 0.69 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Allen Crabbe (DK), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK), DeMarre Carroll (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Allen Crabbe (FD), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (FD), DeMarre Carroll (Cash), Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.0 |  | Vegas Total | 216.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 111.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 14 | DvP | 11 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 23 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 19 | 23 | 27 | 3 | 3 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are looking for their third win in a row, but they’ll have to earn it. They draw a tough matchup against the Raptors and they have to face them in Toronto. On the season, the Raptors are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Despite the tough matchup on paper, the Bucks have an implied total of 105 points, which is slightly higher than their season average. This tells me that Vegas is expecting a faster-paced game than I have it projected for.
With such a high team total, I’m willing to overlook the matchup for the Bucks tonight. Eric Bledsoe has played well recently, but draws one of the worst possible matchups for a point guard. Kyle Lowry has an elite DRPM grade and the Raptors as a whole are ranked first in efficiency against point guards. If I need a point guard in that range, I will be finding the extra few hundred dollars in order to play Elfrid Payton. Khris Middleton (who spends a lot of time at shooting guard) draws the best matchup of the notable players from Milwaukee. His ownership should be fairly low, even though he offers a high floor and a high ceiling.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been quiet in his last four games, but the Raptors don’t really have an elite perimeter defender. OG Anunoby is a good on-ball defender, but he only plays 20 minutes a night and Giannis isn’t your typical wing. He’s clearly the top overall play for this slate, it just depends on whether you want to employ a stars and scrubs lineup or go with a more balanced attack. John Henson has quietly played well over his last four games, averaging 27 minutes and 27 fantasy points. He’s viable on DraftKings at a discounted price of $4,500.
Notable Injuries
None
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (7 of 8)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $6,900 | $7,000 | $13,600 | 33.5 | 0.4 | 31.2 | -1.2 | 1.07 | 25.1% | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Tony Snell | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 16.1 | 3.4 | 31.1 | 1.2 | 0.52 | 9.7% | 30 | 21 | 25 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,100 | $7,100 | $14,900 | 34.9 | -1.0 | 37.4 | 2.2 | 0.93 | 22.4% | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $10,900 | $11,000 | $20,900 | 54.6 | -12.3 | 38.1 | 0.9 | 1.43 | 28.5% | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| John Henson | $5,300 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 23.1 | 4.9 | 24.1 | 2.5 | 0.96 | 12.9% | 10 | 14 | 21 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,400 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 24.1 | 0.3 | 30.0 | -2.7 | 0.80 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Henson (DK)
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (FD)
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and own the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. They should be able to control the pace of this game since they are at home, which is good since the Bucks are a bottom ten team in pace of play. Milwaukee is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebounding differential. The Raptors have an implied total of 111 points, which is the second highest of the slate.
Kyle Lowry is often overpriced, but $7,700 on FanDuel and $7,400 on DraftKings is palatable. The Bucks have been tough on point guards this season, but Lowry can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and should see a full complement of minutes. If Damian Lillard is unable to suit up again (game-time decision), Lowry would be in the mix as the top overall point guard in the slate. DeMar DeRozan will likely draw matchups against Tony Snell and Khris Middleton, who both grade out as poor defenders this season. DeRozan is firmly in play in cash games thanks to his high floor. He has scored at least 35 fantasy points in 13 of his last 15 games.
Serge Ibaka will return to the lineup tonight, after being suspended for one game. I’m not particularly high or low on Ibaka tonight. If you need a power forward in this price range, I have no problem using him to fill out a roster. The best way to attack Milwaukee this season has been at center. They are ranked 29th in efficiency and 23rd in DvP against the position. Jonas Valanciunas and Jakob Poeltl are both viable in tournaments, although they are expensive enough to take them out of cash game consideration.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 110.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.4 (6 of 8)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,700 | $7,400 | $15,600 | 35.2 | -1.3 | 32.6 | -1.5 | 1.08 | 21.5% | 5 | 11 | 19 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,100 | $7,700 | $14,500 | 38.7 | -6.9 | 34.3 | 0.4 | 1.13 | 27.9% | 10 | 3 | 23 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 13.0 | -1.1 | 21.0 | -0.1 | 0.62 | 11.0% | 13 | 1 | 27 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.0 | -3.3 | 27.9 | -0.5 | 0.93 | 17.3% | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,300 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 23.1 | 3.5 | 21.1 | 1.6 | 1.10 | 17.8% | 29 | 23 | 3 |
| C.J. Miles | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 16.0 | -0.9 | 18.4 | -1.6 | 0.87 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Pascal Siakam | $4,100 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 18.7 | 1.4 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 0.94 | 14.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 17.5 | 7.2 | 17.5 | 3.1 | 1.00 | 13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan (Cash), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (Cash), Serge Ibaka, Jakob Poeltl
Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.0 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.0 | Vegas Spread | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 12 | DvP | 4 | 17 | 16 | 7 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 3 | 23 | 23 | 23 | DRPM Rat. | 18 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 3 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have lost five of their last ten games and are close to falling out of the top eight spots in the Western Conference. They have been without Damian Lillard for each of the last four games and could be without him again tonight. He’s listed as a game-time decision, so hopefully we’ll know his status before lineups lock. As far as the matchup, the Bulls are ranked 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Talk about symmetry. The Blazers have an implied total of 104 points, which is two points higher than their season average.
If Lillard is active and without any playing restrictions, he immediately becomes an intriguing tournament play. In DFS, most of us our hesitant to target players coming back from an injury, which will naturally lower his ownership in GPPs. If Lillard is unable to suit up, Shabazz Napier would become a borderline elite play. While he seems a bit overpriced, Napier has averaged 36 minutes and 39 fantasy points in the last four games that Lillard has missed. Over the last three seasons, C.J. McCollum averages eight more fantasy points per game when Lillard is out. Give him a sizable boost if Lillard is unable to suit up.
Evan Turner and Maurice Harkless are both playing minutes in the low to mid-20s and can both be avoided until someone takes over in the rotation. Al Farouq-Aminu is awfully cheap on DraftKings ($4,500) and he draws an exploitable matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 26th in efficiency and 25th in DvP against power forwards. Aminu’s minutes are volatile, but this is a good spot to target him. Portland will need his defense against the likes of Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis off the bench. While the Bulls’ frontcourt is exploitable, I don’t love any of the Blazers’ bigs outside of Aminu.
Notable Injuries
Damian Lillard (Questionable)
Meyers Leonard (Probable)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 101.7 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (5 of 8)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $8,900 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 42.2 | 37.1 | 1.14 | 28.8% | 26 | 23 | 5 | ||
| C.J. McCollum | $7,300 | $7,300 | $14,800 | 32.4 | 0.9 | 36.6 | -1.0 | 0.88 | 23.8% | 14 | 20 | 3 |
| Evan Turner | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.2 | -2.9 | 26.5 | -2.9 | 0.65 | 14.6% | 24 | 20 | 23 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,200 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 22.9 | -3.4 | 29.8 | -2.0 | 0.77 | 12.1% | 26 | 25 | 23 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,300 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 29.7 | -4.3 | 27.2 | -3.8 | 1.09 | 23.8% | 15 | 12 | 23 |
| Shabazz Napier | $6,000 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 18.3 | 20.8 | 19.6 | 16.0 | 0.94 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ed Davis | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 16.1 | -0.7 | 18.1 | 3.4 | 0.89 | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Maurice Harkless | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 14.7 | 5.2 | 22.3 | -0.4 | 0.66 | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Damian Lillard (GPP – if active), Shabazz Napier and C.J. McCollum (if Lillard is out), Al-Farouq Aminu (DK)
Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (Cash – if active), Shabazz Napier and C.J. McCollum (if Lillard is active), Al-Farouq Aminu (FD)
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have won seven of their last ten games and aren’t too far out of the playoff picture to make a run. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked fourth in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. While the matchup doesn’t look great on paper, Chicago is playing well recently and they are playing at home. The Bulls have an implied total of 103 points, which is 2.5 points above their season average.
Kris Dunn continues to play at a high level, averaging 32 minutes and 44 fantasy points over his last four games. I’ve always been a fan of his talent, but can’t believe that he’s $8,100 on FanDuel and we are actually considering him as a viable DFS play. The Blazers have been tough on point guards, but Dunn is still underpriced on DraftKings ($7,200). Justin Holiday has scored at least 22 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games and draws the best individual matchup of the five starters. Denzel Valentine will flash some upside every now and then, but I’m still buying David Nwaba as the better player moving forward. His minutes are starting to creep up again and he’s cheap across the industry.
The Bulls’ frontcourt has too many bodies splitting minutes right now. Lauri Markkanen and Robin Lopez are the starters in name, but they are both averaging less than 27 minutes in their last four games. The only viable target here is Nikola Mirotic and I would only consider him in tournaments. Mirotic has a high ceiling, but he has limited minute upside and he is priced up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is also a bad matchup for the Bulls’ frontcourt, as Portland is ranked first against point guards and second against centers when it comes to efficiency.
Notable Injuries
None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 100.5 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (4 of 8)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $8,100 | $7,200 | $13,400 | 32.0 | 12.3 | 28.7 | 3.8 | 1.12 | 24.8% | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,300 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 26.5 | -2.0 | 33.6 | 1.4 | 0.79 | 17.3% | 16 | 17 | 22 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,300 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 21.2 | -2.6 | 28.3 | -2.0 | 0.75 | 15.6% | 18 | 16 | 8 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,500 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 27.1 | -3.1 | 29.5 | -3.1 | 0.92 | 20.2% | 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Robin Lopez | $4,600 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 23.9 | -2.1 | 28.9 | -4.4 | 0.83 | 18.1% | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,700 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 30.3 | -0.1 | 25.8 | 1.3 | 1.17 | 23.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bobby Portis | $4,400 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 23.4 | -3.3 | 20.7 | -2.8 | 1.13 | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 19.9 | 1.5 | 23.8 | 1.5 | 0.83 | 12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (DK), Justin Holiday, David Nwaba (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (FD), David Nwaba (Cash), Nikola Mirotic
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.0 |  | Vegas Total | 216.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.0 | Implied Team Total | 113.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 4.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Ennis | Josh Hart | Brandon Ingram | Kyle Kuzma | Julius Randle | Projected Starters | Tyus Jones | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 13 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 21 | DvP | 25 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 28 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 11 | 17 | 30 | 8 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games, they are going to be short-handed (three starters have already been ruled out, and they will be playing on tired legs (double-OT game last night in Houston). This doesn’t exactly set up well for this game to stay competitive, but the spread is set at only ten points. If the Lakers can keep it close, this should be an excellent game to target for fantasy production. The Wolves are currently ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency.
Tyler Ennis drew the start at point guard last night and played a whopping 45 minutes. I’m not going to tell you that he’s a bad play, but he’s probably not as great of a play as many will make him out to be. His FP/min production is solid on the season, but his previous season high in minutes before last night was 14. I’m also expecting Jordan Clarkson to play more minutes tonight. He only logged 21 minutes against the Rockets and will be one of the few Lakers that has fresh legs. Clarkson is arguably my favorite tournament play on the board tonight. Again, Ennis is viable because he is min-salary and we need value in this slate, but I don’t consider him an absolute must.
Josh Hart has averaged 31 fantasy points per game with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out this season. Hart should play at least 30 minutes and he draws a nice matchup against Andrew Wiggins, who has never been known for his play on the defensive end of the floor. Brandon Ingram will likely draw the defense of Jimmy Butler, but his price is cheap enough and his minute upside (40+) is high enough that he warrants consideration in all formats. Corey Brewer should also see an expanded role off the bench, but he’s more of a deep GPP dart.
Luke Walton doesn’t ever seem to have a plan with his rotation, but lately he’s been giving Kyle Kuzma as many minutes as possible. Over his last four games, Kuzma is averaging 39 minutes and 33 fantasy points. He’s viable in all formats once again, as the Wolves have struggled to contain stretch fours this season. In their last meeting, Kuzma scored 49 fantasy points. Julius Randle has played 28 and 33 minutes in his last two games. I don’t feel great about his minute floor, but I love the upside that he provides. The Wolves are ranked 27th in efficiency against centers this season and Karl-Anthony Towns has one of the worst DRPM grades of any center in basketball.
Notable Injuries
Lonzo Ball (Out)
Brook Lopez (Out)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out)
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (8 of 8)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ennis | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 7.3 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 13.0 | 0.88 | 19.1% | 17 | 13 | 4 |
| Josh Hart | $4,400 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 18.3 | 13.6 | 0.69 | 11.0% | 24 | 12 | 2 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,800 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 30.1 | -0.1 | 35.4 | 6.3 | 0.85 | 19.8% | 13 | 8 | 27 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $6,700 | $6,900 | $13,000 | 29.5 | 3.7 | 32.5 | 6.3 | 0.91 | 19.9% | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| Julius Randle | $6,200 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 25.5 | 5.6 | 22.5 | 0.3 | 1.13 | 20.7% | 27 | 21 | 28 |
| Larry Nance | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 23.2 | 0.9 | 21.6 | -2.5 | 1.07 | 14.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Corey Brewer | $3,700 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 11.9 | 3.7 | 0.67 | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $7,400 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 22.7 | 8.8 | 23.2 | 9.2 | 0.98 | 25.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart (FD), Tyler Ennis (Cash), Julius Randle (DK)
Secondary Plays – Josh Hart (DK), Tyler Ennis (GPP), Julius Randle (FD)
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are playing at home, they draw an exploitable matchup against the Lakers, and they have been playing their best basketball of the season. It’s hard not to load up on the Wolves in this four-game slate. They have the highest implied total (113 points) and the highest projected point differential (+4.5 points) on the board. The Lakers are ranked first in pace of play, 28th in points allowed per game, and are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games.
We can generally throw out the blowout concern in any game involving the Wolves because Tom Thibodeau loves to play his starters deep into games, even when the outcome is already in hand. This is great for DFS because we don’t have to worry about players resting the entire fourth quarter. With that in mind, we should be loading up on the Wolves in a matchup against the Lakers. Tyus Jones is no longer a great value play, but he’s still viable against a Lakers’ defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Andrew Wiggins is volatile when it comes to DFS because he relies so heavily on scoring for his fantasy production. While that’s a concern in cash games, he has massive upside for a player priced under $6,000. He benefits as much as anyone with Jeff Teague off the floor, as he sees a 3% usage boost and a 0.08 FP/min boost. Jimmy Butler should play 38-40 minutes against the Lakers, who are without their best perimeter defender in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. I certainly have no issue playing Butler in cash games or tournaments.
Taj Gibson continues to truck along. Even with Nemanja Bjelica back in the rotation, Gibson is still playing around 35 minutes a night. His price is getting expensive, but he’s viable on FanDuel ($6,100) where we have to roster two power forwards in this small four-game slate. Karl-Anthony Towns has a massive size advantage against the Lakers’ frontcourt. He should be able to dominate the glass and the paint. He’s the top center of the slate and he’s the second best play overall behind Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Notable Injuries
None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.5 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (1 of 8)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.2 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.9 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Jones | $6,400 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 17.4 | 5.6 | 0.79 | 12.1% | 21 | 25 | 9 |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,300 | $8,700 | $16,000 | 39.6 | 6.9 | 37.3 | 1.1 | 1.06 | 23.6% | 20 | 24 | 11 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $5,500 | $5,600 | $11,100 | 28.6 | -2.4 | 36.4 | -1.2 | 0.79 | 20.9% | 13 | 24 | 17 |
| Taj Gibson | $6,100 | $5,700 | $11,300 | 27.2 | 3.7 | 33.6 | 2.4 | 0.81 | 12.7% | 30 | 28 | 30 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,600 | $9,700 | $17,700 | 42.7 | 6.8 | 35.8 | 0.1 | 1.19 | 19.8% | 20 | 25 | 8 |
| Jamal Crawford | $4,100 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 15.3 | 1.5 | 18.7 | 4.1 | 0.82 | 22.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gorgui Dieng | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 15.9 | -3.9 | 17.9 | -0.2 | 0.89 | 14.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |