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NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-15 19:50:12

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Dallas Mavericks Charlotte Hornets
dallasnba Vegas Total 210.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 96.50 Team Pace 97.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 12 14 22 22 11 Opp. Season 13 10 8 27 18
Last 3 Weeks 10 6 22 7 11 Last 3 Weeks 14 16 7 25 27

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 33-33 — Road: 14-17 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavericks have lost six of their last ten games and are now 33-33 overall. They hold a slim two-game lead over the Utah Jazz for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on a Hornets team that is trending in the opposite direction. Dallas is listed as 6.5-point underdogs with their team total set at 102 points. They have the fifth lowest projected point differential tonight at -0.4.

The Hornets have slowly worked their way into the top ten rankings in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. This is a slightly below-average matchup for fantasy production, which is why the Mavericks have a low team total. With a well-balanced offense, the Mavericks should be considered secondary options in all league formats tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki
dirk-nowitzki-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$6,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.2 31.2 0.0 33.2 2.0
FPPG (FD) 30.4 34.2 3.9 36.0 5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 21.8 23.8 2.0 24.2 2.5

As I mentioned above, the Mavericks are fighting for their playoff lives. With their season at stake, we have seen a major boost in the veterans’ minutes. Over his last five games, Nowitzki is averaging 33.2 minutes per contest, which is considerably higher than his season average. He provides a high floor tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked 22nd against power forwards this season. His ownership will be low, but Nowitzki is a safe cash game option tonight.

Deron Williams
deron-williams-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.3 32.0 -0.3 34.7 2.4
FPPG (FD) 25.7 25.2 -0.5 26.8 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 17.2 -1.7 17.4 -1.5

Williams is in play thanks to a discounted price. He is only $5,600 on FanDuel and $5,400 on DraftKings. He should be a safe bet to play 35 minutes tonight against the Hornets, who are mediocre at defending point guards. Williams hasn’t been playing his best basketball recently, but makes a nice tournament play, as we know the type of upside that he possesses.

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 37-28 — Home: 25-9 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hornets have won eight of their last ten games and are now a half game behind the Miami Heat for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Tonight they host the Mavericks in a game that features a total of 210.5 points. The Hornets are projected to score 108.5 points, which is the sixth highest team total on the board. Charlotte also has the fifth highest projected point differential at +5.2.

The Mavericks have a mediocre defense. On the season, they are ranked between 15th and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. With such a high team total, there are a few Hornets’ players on my radar tonight at home.

Elite Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 36.1 0.1 35.7 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 36.9 41.2 4.2 44.4 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 23.3 24.6 1.4 25.3 2.1

Walker is always a slightly better play when he is playing at home. In his career, he averages five more fantasy points per game at home than he does on the road. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Mavericks in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. Walker also comes into this game in terrific form, averaging 44.4 fantasy points in 35.7 minutes over his last five games.

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$7,400
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.5 36.0 0.5 37.6 2.1
FPPG (FD) 30.8 30.5 -0.3 37.2 6.5
TO-Adj. Usage 17.4 16.2 -1.2 19.4 2.0

Batum is a borderline elite play in all league formats tonight. He is a streaky player and is currently in the midst of a hot streak. Over his last five games, he is averaging 37.2 fantasy points in 37.6 minutes per contest. He could see upwards of 40 minutes tonight against the Mavericks. The only knock on Batum tonight is his price tag. I prefer to use him when he is sub-$7,000.

Al Jefferson
al-jefferson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.0 21.9 -2.1 23.2 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 23.8 21.9 -1.9 23.9 0.1
TO-Adj. Usage 20.8 21.0 0.2 19.5 -1.3

Jefferson is still coming off the bench for the Hornets, but he says that he is content with it. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 23.9 fantasy points in 23.2 minutes per contest. While his minutes are always a concern, this is a matchup that he should excel in. Over the last three weeks, the Mavericks are ranked 27th against centers.

Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Detroit Pistons Washington Wizards
detroitnba Vegas Total 208.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 105.0
Team Pace 97.50 Team Pace 100.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 16 22 26 7 9 Opp. Season 8 9 4 14 8
Last 3 Weeks 20 7 10 3 10 Last 3 Weeks 4 8 21 10 5

Detroit Pistons

Record: 34-32 — Road: 15-21 — Last 10: 7-3

The Pistons have won seven of their last ten games and are now two games above .500 on the season. They currently hold a one-game lead over the Chicago Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are 2-point underdogs tonight against the Wizards in what should be a competitive game throughout. Detroit is projected to score 103 points, which is right around their scoring average for the season.

The Wizards have not fared well defensively this season, ranking below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This is a slightly favorable matchup for Detroit, even though their projected point differential is the seventh lowest on the board tonight.

Elite Plays

Tobias Harris
tobias-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,300
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 34.5 1.4 36.3 3.2
FPPG (FD) 27.1 29.5 2.4 30.6 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 17.5 1.1 16.6 0.2

Harris has really played well since being acquired by the Pistons. He comes into this game in great form, averaging 30.6 fantasy points in 36.3 minutes in his last five games. Stan Van Gundy has a tight rotation and even with Stanley Johnson and Anthony Tolliver back, Harris should see 35+ minutes per game moving forward.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$8,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.20 FP/Min:1.29
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.3 30.8 -2.5 30.9 -2.4
FPPG (FD) 39.9 37.5 -2.4 36.5 -3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 19.1 -1.3 20.0 -0.4

On paper, Drummond could be considered an elite play tonight. However, his recent form and his track record against the Wizards bumps him down to a secondary play. Over his last five games, Drummond is only averaging 30.9 fantasy points per contest. Additionally, he has only topped 33 fantasy points one time in his last five outings against Washington.

Reggie Jackson
reggie-jackson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.9 30.2 -0.7 30.6 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 31.3 31.4 0.1 33.4 2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 24.1 -1.6 25.7 0.0

Jackson’s biggest weakness this season has been his lack of minute upside. We have basically had to pencil him in for 29-31 minutes all season. That appears to be changing though, as he is averaging 33.4 minutes in his last five games. He is a borderline elite play tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 16th against point guards this season.

Washington Wizards

Record: 30-35 — Home: 16-17 — Last 10: 4-6

The Wizards have not been playing their best basketball recently, losing six of their last ten games. They need a strong push in the next month if they want to be playing in the postseason. They have a chance to make up some ground against the Pistons tonight at home. Washington is projected to score 105 points, which is 2.5 points above their scoring average.

The Pistons have quietly been a tough matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Bradley Beal hasn’t done any basketball activities since March 5th, but is hoping to play tonight. Alan Anderson has already been ruled out.

Elite Plays

John Wall
john-wall-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,500 Salary:$9,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 36.2 0.2 36.5 0.5
FPPG (FD) 42.1 43.7 1.6 42.3 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 24.9 26.2 1.3 26.7 1.8

Wall has established himself as one of the best point guards in the NBA. The Wizards are going to need a huge month from him if they are going to have any shot at the playoffs. He comes into tonight’s game playing some great basketball, averaging 42.3 fantasy points over his last five games. The Pistons have been tough on point guards this season, but we have seen Wall play well in difficult matchups time and time again.

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat
marcin-gortat-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.3 26.4 -3.9 23.6 -6.7
FPPG (FD) 29.8 26.7 -3.2 23.3 -6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 15.5 14.1 -1.3 14.1 -1.3

Gortat has outplayed Andre Drummond in their five meetings over the last two seasons. In those outings, he has topped the 32 fantasy point mark four times. His minutes have been way down over his last five games, but he has been in foul trouble in each of the past three games. Look for him to see closer to 30 minutes tonight against the Pistons.

Otto Porter
otto-porter-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.1 25.8 -4.3 28.1 -2.0
FPPG (FD) 23.0 17.3 -5.7 15.8 -7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 14.0 -0.2 13.3 -0.9

This pick hinges on the availability of Bradley Beal. If Beal is unable to suit up, Porter would likely see minutes in the mid-30s, as Alan Anderson is also out for the Wizards. If we can project Beal to play 35 minutes, he becomes an absolute steal at this price. The recent form is an issue, but he is coming off of a 35 fantasy point outing against the Nuggets.

Garrett Temple
garrett-temple-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.57 FP/Min:0.62
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.5 25.3 -0.2 27.7 2.2
FPPG (FD) 14.6 12.2 -2.4 13.5 -1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 12.4 10.0 -2.4 8.8 -3.6

Temple would also see a nice boost in minutes if Bradley Beal is unable to suit up. Temple doesn’t have nearly as much upside as Otto Porter, but could make a decent value play if we can project him to play 35 minutes tonight.

Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Chicago Bulls Toronto Raptors
chicagonba Vegas Total 204.5 torontonba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 97.5 Team Proj. 107.0
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter E’Twaun Moore Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Nikola Mirotic Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 3 11 3 4 19 Opp. Season 28 15 25 24 26
Last 3 Weeks 3 5 11 4 14 Last 3 Weeks 28 17 23 30 18

Chicago Bulls

Record: 32-32 — Road: 11-20 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games, but would still be in the playoffs if the game ended today. Tonight they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors in a game where the Bulls are listed as 9.5-point underdogs. Chicago is only projected to score 97.5 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board. They also have the second lowest projected point differential at -4.0.

The Raptors have a top five defense this season. They are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and fourth in fantasy points allowed per game. As usual these days, the Bulls’ injury report is chock full of names. Pau Gasol has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Derrick Rose is listed as a game-time decision, while Jimmy Butler is expected to play. Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic could both be worth a look in tournaments with Gasol out.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jimmy Butler
jimmy-butler-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.8 34.0 -3.8 34.0 -3.8
FPPG (FD) 37.8 43.2 5.4 43.2 5.4
TO-Adj. Usage 22.1 23.6 1.5 23.6 1.5

With Derrick Rose questionable and Pau Gasol out, Butler’s usage should be through the roof tonight. Without Gasol in the lineup, Butler has a usage rate over 30 this season. Additionally, in the one game that Gasol and Rose both missed, Butler has a usage rate of 39. There has been some talk about a potential minute restriction, so make sure to double check that before targeting Butler in your lineups.

Taj Gibson
taj-gibson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$4,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.8 28.3 1.5 30.3 3.5
FPPG (FD) 21.1 23.0 2.0 23.6 2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 11.9 12.8 0.9 11.8 -0.1

Generally, Gibson becomes an elite play when Pau Gasol is out, but the tough matchup against the Raptors makes him more of a secondary option. I’d maybe consider him an elite play on DraftKings at a price of only $4,400. If the Bulls can keep this close (and that’s a big if), Gibson could play around 35 minutes tonight.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 44-20 — Home: 26-7 — Last 10: 8-2

The Raptors continue to win games, as they are now 44-20 overall. They are still 2.5 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers, but are basically at worst locked into the two seed in the Eastern Conference. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against a short-handed Bulls’ team. Toronto is projected to score 107 points, which is the eight highest team total on the board.

The Bulls somehow rank 15th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential, yet they have allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game this season. The Raptors are in a good spot tonight at home, but this is one of the few games with blowout potential tonight.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$8,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.14
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.3 39.7 2.4 39.9 2.6
FPPG (FD) 39.4 42.3 3.0 35.9 -3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 22.4 22.0 -0.4 20.8 -1.6

Lowry is an elite play regardless, but I’d give him a slight boost if Derrick Rose is able to suit up tonight. Not only would Rose potentially help keep the game close, but his defense is suspect at best. Lowry has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 42.3 fantasy points in 39.7 minutes per contest. This is also one of the top matchups a point guard can have, as the Bulls are ranked 28th against the position this season.

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$7,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 35.9 -0.3 37.3 1.1
FPPG (FD) 35.4 37.5 2.1 41.3 5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.9 26.7 0.7 28.8 2.8

DeRozan is one of the most consistent fantasy options at any position. He rarely has a bad fantasy outing and even when he does, it typically doesn’t kill your lineup. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 41.3 fantasy points per contest. He does, however, draw a difficult matchup tonight against Jimmy Butler, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA.

Jonas Valanciunas
jonas-valanciunas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.2 25.1 -1.1 26.5 0.3
FPPG (FD) 26.6 24.8 -1.8 26.5 -0.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.6 16.6 0.0 16.1 -0.5

Valanciunas should be able to feast on a Bulls’ frontcourt that is both undersized and undermanned. I won’t be using him in cash games, but he offers great upside for a player at his price point. Big Val has scored at least 30 fantasy points in three of his last ten games and as you can see above, the Bulls are ranked 26th against centers this season.

Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Denver Nuggets Miami Heat
denvernba Vegas Total 203.5 miaminba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 98.20 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Justise Winslow Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 2 4 16 5 6 Opp. Season 18 26 15 25 15
Last 3 Weeks 1 21 19 10 6 Last 3 Weeks 7 13 20 21 4

Denver Nuggets

Record: 28-38 — Road: 12-19 — Last 10: 6-4

The Nuggets have won six of their last ten games, but their push is a little too late. They are five games behind the Dallas Mavericks for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Heat in Miami. Denver is only projected to score 98.8 points tonight. Not only is that the third lowest team total, but they also have the third lowest projected point differential at -3.3.

The Heat have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. On the season, they are ranked fifth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Not only do the Nuggets have a low team total, but they are also sizable underdogs. This is a good night to fade the Nuggets as a whole, at least in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nikola Jokic
nikola-jokic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.5 23.7 3.2 26.5 6.0
FPPG (FD) 22.5 29.4 6.8 33.0 10.5
TO-Adj. Usage 17.6 19.0 1.4 19.9 2.3

Jokic is the only Nuggets’ player that is on my radar tonight and I will label him a GPP-only play against the Heat. The matchup is less than ideal, as Miami is ranked sixth against centers this season. Jokic makes a nice tournament play though, as he always provides great upside at center. Over his last five games, he is averaging 33 fantasy points in 26.5 minutes per contest.

Miami Heat

Record: 38-28 — Home: 21-12 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are now ten games above .500 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets. Miami is projected to score 104.8 points, which is 6.3 points above their scoring average.

The Nuggets have been an exploitable matchup for fantasy production this season, ranking 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Dwyane Wade is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest. If he is unable to suit up, give a small boost to Goran Dragic, Gerald Green, Josh Richardson, and Luol Deng.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$8,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.22 FP/Min:1.30
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.9 30.5 1.6 31.6 2.7
FPPG (FD) 35.2 42.0 6.8 42.0 6.8
TO-Adj. Usage 15.5 18.4 2.9 19.3 3.9

At this point, you can basically pencil in Whiteside as an elite play for the rest of the season. He is matchup-proof, he has been surprisingly consistent, and he still provides great upside at his price point. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 42 fantasy points in just over 30 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who aren’t the best team at defending the paint.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 35.0 2.1 36.0 3.1
FPPG (FD) 26.4 33.5 7.1 34.4 8.0
TO-Adj. Usage 18.2 22.0 3.8 21.5 3.3

Dragic has really played well over his last five games, averaging 34.4 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who have struggled to contain opposing point guards all season. The Dragon would also see a sizable boost if Dwyane Wade is unable to suit up. Dragic’s usage rate jumps from 21.2 all the way to 26 without Wade in the lineup this season.

Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Oklahoma City Thunder
portlandnba Vegas Total 220.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 106.3 Team Proj. 114.3
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 23 21 10 10 5 Opp. Season 17 19 5 18 25
Last 3 Weeks 27 10 15 29 12 Last 3 Weeks 18 22 12 12 24

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 35-32 — Road: 14-20 — Last 10: 5-5

The Blazers have won five of their last ten games and are currently in sixth place in the Western Conference standings. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. Portland is projected to score 106.3 points, which is 2.1 points above their scoring average for the season.

The Thunder have been a slightly-below average matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 17th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The big question here is whether or not the Blazers will be able to keep this game close. They are 8-point underdogs tonight on the road.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,200 Salary:$9,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.24
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 35.1 -0.8 35.7 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 40.7 40.9 0.1 43.6 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 28.0 29.8 1.8 30.3 2.3

The one position that the Thunder have struggled to contain this season is point guard. While Russell Westbrook can rack up blocks and steals, he is not a great on-ball defender. Oklahoma City is ranked 23rd against the position. Lillard comes into this game in great form, averaging 43.6 fantasy points over his last five games. Lillard has had mixed success against the Thunder in the past, but he has topped the 50 fantasy point mark twice in their last five meetings.

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 33.6 -1.2 33.2 -1.6
FPPG (FD) 31.4 25.9 -5.5 27.1 -4.3
TO-Adj. Usage 23.7 22.2 -1.5 21.9 -1.8

McCollum’s production has been down over his last ten games, but luckily that has also led to a major decrease in price. He is now sitting at a very playable price on both FanDuel and DraftKings. There are safer plays tonight for cash games, but McCollum provides good upside at his price point. Feel free to fire him up as a contrarian play for GPPs.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 44-22 — Home: 26-9 — Last 10: 4-6

The Thunder have lost six of their last ten games, but are still 44-22 overall. They should be hosting a first round playoff series, the only question is whether they will be the third or fourth seed in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is projected to score 114.3 points tonight against the Blazers, which is the second highest team total on the board.

The Blazers have been better defensively over the last month or so, but are still ranked below the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Dion Waiters missed Saturday’s game for personal reasons. He should be considered questionable for tonight’s game until we hear otherwise.

Elite Plays

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,500 Salary:$10,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.27 FP/Min:1.38
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.3 37.5 1.2 38.0 1.7
FPPG (FD) 46.1 51.5 5.4 48.9 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 27.0 1.2 26.2 0.3

How strange is it to see Durant priced above Russell Westbrook on FanDuel? Even though Durant averages three less fantasy points per game than Westbrook on the season, he is averaging three more fantasy points per game over the last ten games. Durant is as matchup-proof of a player as you will find in the NBA, so I’m not concerned with the fact that the Blazers are ranked fifth against small forwards. Durant should be considered the top play at his respective position.

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,400 Salary:$10,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.41 FP/Min:1.54
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 37.5 2.7 37.5 2.7
FPPG (FD) 49.0 48.0 -1.0 43.1 -5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 28.4 26.9 -1.5 24.7 -3.7

If you are deciding between Westbrook and Kevin Durant, you really can’t go wrong either way. However, I am going to give a slight edge to Westbrook. The Blazers don’t have an elite rim protector and Damian Lillard is an average on-ball defender. Westbrook has absolutely torched the Blazers over the last two seasons. He has topped the 55 fantasy point mark five times in their last six meetings.

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious