NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 26th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Philadelphia 76ers
denvernba Vegas Total 223.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 223.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Implied Team Total 108.8 Implied Team Total 114.3
Pace Projection +/- 2.0 Pace Projection +/- -0.4
Projected Starters Jamal Murray Will Barton Wilson Chandler Paul Millsap Nikola Jokic Projected Starters Ben Simmons J.J. Redick Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 13 18 20 13 12 DvP 26 4 17 25 17
DRPM Rat. 1 26 1 25 2 DRPM Rat. 27 26 22 3 11

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are in must-win mode from here on out. They are currently a game and a half behind the Wolves and Jazz for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference. We can expect their rotation to tighten in the next two weeks and that is only amplified with Gary Harris out. While a matchup against the Sixers looks tough on paper, this game features a relatively low spread (5.5 points) and a high total (223 points). Denver comes into the game with an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the sixth highest of the slate.

Jamal Murray has played well over his last five games, but he is priced at a premium and draws a difficult matchup. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked second in efficiency against point guards. Murray still offers upside for tournaments, but there are safer cash game targets at his position. Will Barton will likely draw the defense of Robert Covington, but some of that is offset by his increased playing time with Harris out. Shooting guard isn’t particularly deep in this five-game slate, which puts Barton as one of the top point-per-dollar options on FanDuel ($7,100).

Wilson Chandler is a low usage player, but he should play 35-38 minutes in a potentially high scoring game. He may not have the same ceiling as other players at this price point, but he certainly offers a high floor. Paul Millsap is overpriced on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings ($6,100). He is no longer on a minute restriction and a matchup against Dario Saric is exploitable. We can expect Nikola Jokic to play 35+ minutes every night moving forward. A matchup against Joel Embiid is less than ideal, but Jokic scores fantasy points in so many different ways that he is close to matchup-proof. In a must-win game, Jokic is one of the top options tonight at center.

Notable Injuries

Gary Harris (Out)

Denver Nuggets Offense

Points Per Game: 109.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (8 of 10)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (5 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Jamal Murray $7,500 $7,300 $12,900 27.6 10.0 30.8 4.6 0.90 21.4% 2 13 1
Will Barton $7,100 $7,100 $13,300 30.9 6.6 32.5 2.1 0.95 20.0% 22 18 26
Wilson Chandler $6,000 $5,400 $10,200 21.7 4.5 31.5 6.3 0.69 13.7% 3 20 1
Paul Millsap $7,000 $6,100 $11,900 30.5 -1.8 28.8 2.5 1.06 19.4% 10 13 25
Nikola Jokic $9,500 $8,600 $16,100 42.5 7.8 31.7 4.6 1.34 22.2% 6 12 2
Mason Plumlee $3,700 $3,700 $7,100 21.0 -7.2 20.3 -3.4 1.04 14.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Will Barton (FD), Paul Millsap (DK)

Secondary Plays – Will Barton (DK), Paul Millsap (FD), Jamal Murray (GPP), Wilson Chandler


Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have been dominant over the last few weeks. They have won six games in a row and eight of their last ten. They have vaulted up to fourth place in the Eastern Conference standings and they’d like to stay there in order to host a first-round playoff series. They draw an excellent matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 25th in defensive efficiency. The Sixers have an implied total of 114.3 points, which is the second highest on the board and six points above their season average.

Ben Simmons has been heating up over his last five games, averaging 49 fantasy points with an elite FP/min of 1.61 during that stretch. With this game featuring a low spread, he should see a full complement of minutes in a great matchup. J.J. Redick and Dario Saric have seen their minutes come down after the acquisitions of Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova. While I don’t expect any of these players to crack the 30-minute mark, all four carry fantasy appeal in tournaments. They are all cheap and should be low owned across the industry.

Robert Covington is a streaky player. While his fantasy production is slightly down over his last five games, his FP/mind production is actually up. The Sixers have been involved in so many blowouts that they haven’t needed Covington to play big minutes. He’s one of my favorite small forward targets in this slate, even in cash games. Joel Embiid is slightly overpriced on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings ($9,400). He has an elite usage rate, he fills up all areas of the stat sheet, and he should play a full complement of minutes in this matchup.

Notable Injuries

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 (3 of 10)

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ben Simmons $9,800 $8,800 $16,000 41.5 7.2 34.2 -4.0 1.21 22.9% 28 26 27
J.J. Redick $4,500 $4,900 $10,100 24.3 -5.6 30.4 -9.1 0.80 19.7% 10 4 26
Robert Covington $5,900 $5,800 $11,700 27.6 -1.7 31.8 -5.9 0.87 15.1% 14 17 22
Dario Saric $5,900 $5,900 $12,400 28.0 -6.8 30.1 -6.0 0.93 18.4% 24 25 3
Joel Embiid $10,300 $9,400 $16,700 44.7 -0.6 30.8 -5.4 1.45 28.3% 13 17 11
Ersan Ilyasova $3,800 $4,100 $8,100 21.3 -3.7 24.7 -2.7 0.86 15.9% N/A N/A N/A
T.J. McConnell $3,500 $3,500 $6,900 19.6 -7.8 23.7 -6.7 0.83 14.8% N/A N/A N/A
Marco Belinelli $3,900 $3,800 $7,100 18.0 2.0 24.0 2.3 0.75 18.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, Robert Covington, Joel Embiid (DK)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (FD), J.J. Redick (FD), Ersan Ilyasova (FD), Marco Belinelli (GPP), Dario Saric (GPP)


New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Charlotte Hornets
newyorknba Vegas Total 221.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Spread 11.0 Vegas Spread -11.0
Implied Team Total 105.3 Implied Team Total 116.3
Pace Projection +/- 1.0 Pace Projection +/- -0.5
Projected Starters Trey Burke Frank Ntilikina Tim Hardaway Michael Beasley Enes Kanter Projected Starters Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 16 16 24 16 18 DvP 24 17 23 15 13
DRPM Rat. 20 13 12 13 9 DRPM Rat. 28 19 20 25 28

New York Knicks

Is anyone else tired of trying to predict the rotations of these teams that have nothing to play for? The league should do everyone a solid and just let these teams have the rest of the season off. The Knicks have not been a great team to target recently because their rotation seems to change every single game. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hornets and come into the game as double-digit underdogs on the road. The Knicks have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is slightly above their season average.

Trey Burke would typically be a better tournament play than cash game target, but those lines are blurred at this point of the season. Burke was named the starter last night and he didn’t disappoint, scoring 33 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action. In a slate that lacks value, Burke is an elite play in all formats. Tim Hardaway is the one Knicks’ player that has consistently seen minutes in the 30s. He offers appeal in tournaments, especially on FanDuel ($6,100) where we have to roster two shooting guards.

Michael Beasley has plenty of upside, but he also carries a low floor given his minute volatility. With Lance Thomas back in the rotation, Beasley makes a better tournament play than cash game target. With Kyle O’Quinn doubtful, we can feel better about the minute projection for Enes Kanter. I certainly wouldn’t call him a safe play by any means, but there is an outside shot of Kanter playing 30 minutes. I’m more than willing to take a few shots on Kanter in tournaments. Luke Kornet could see a few extra minutes off the bench if you are looking for a super cheap tournament flier.

Notable Injuries

Kyle O’Quinn (Doubtful)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 (7 of 10)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (8 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Trey Burke $4,900 $4,800 $10,300 19.4 7.4 17.8 7.1 1.09 26.2% 19 16 20
Frank Ntilikina $3,500 $3,700 $7,700 14.3 2.1 21.1 3.5 0.68 16.5% 21 16 13
Tim Hardaway $6,100 $7,000 $13,400 28.8 3.4 32.9 -0.2 0.88 22.5% 21 24 12
Michael Beasley $5,800 $5,700 $10,900 22.9 2.7 22.0 5.7 1.04 22.9% 22 16 13
Enes Kanter $6,300 $6,100 $10,900 30.7 0.8 25.6 -1.0 1.20 18.9% 10 18 9
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,600 $4,000 $7,700 17.3 2.0 19.5 -1.4 0.89 23.0% N/A N/A N/A
Luke Kornet $3,500 $3,100 $6,000 12.7 5.4 12.8 3.4 0.99 19.1% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway (FD GPP), Michael Beasley (GPP), Enes Kanter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway (FD Cash), Michael Beasley (Cash), Enes Kanter (Cash)


Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have won three games in a row, but are still six games out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Luckily, they haven’t been eliminated yet and it appears that they will continue to play their starters full complements of minutes. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 21st in defensive efficiency. The Hornets have an implied total of 116.3 points, which is the highest of the slate and nine points above their season average.

Kemba Walker has played well recently, averaging 40 fantasy points over his last five games. While some of that was aided by the absence of Nicolas Batum, I certainly have no issues targeting Walker against a Knicks’ team that is ranked 24th in DvP against point guards. Batum was playing well before his injury, but I am going to give him at least one game before targeting him in DFS. With Batum back in the lineup, we can safely avoid Jeremy Lamb and Dwayne Bacon, who will go back to their limited roles off the bench.

Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky are two power forwards that I only target when I need value and when the position doesn’t offer much in terms of viable plays. With decent value at the other positions, it appears to be a good night to pay up at power forward, especially on FanDuel. Dwight Howard has grabbed 30 and 23 rebounds over his last two games. When he’s locked in, there are few better centers in basketball. He should be able to feast on a Knicks’ frontcourt that will likely be without Kyle O’Quinn.

Notable Injuries

Cody Zeller (Out)
Nicolas Batum (Probable)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.4 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.3 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 8.8 (1 of 10)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,600 $8,300 $16,400 37.6 2.8 34.8 -1.9 1.08 26.8% 18 24 28
Nicolas Batum $7,000 $6,900 $12,700 28.5 -14.9 31.9 -6.8 0.89 18.5% 12 17 19
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $3,500 $3,700 $7,300 18.6 -4.6 25.1 -2.1 0.74 14.8% 29 23 20
Marvin Williams $4,200 $4,100 $8,100 19.1 -0.4 25.7 -1.0 0.74 13.1% 10 15 25
Dwight Howard $8,800 $8,700 $15,700 37.7 2.7 30.5 -0.1 1.24 19.9% 16 13 28
Frank Kaminsky $4,700 $4,400 $9,100 19.2 -2.2 23.2 -0.7 0.83 18.9% N/A N/A N/A
Jeremy Lamb $7,000 $6,100 $12,300 24.1 2.1 24.7 3.1 0.98 21.3% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Kemba Walker (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash)


Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Detroit Pistons
lalakersnba Vegas Total 213.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Implied Team Total 104.5 Implied Team Total 109.0
Pace Projection +/- -1.2 Pace Projection +/- 3.4
Projected Starters Lonzo Ball Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Kyle Kuzma Julius Randle Brook Lopez Projected Starters Reggie Jackson Reggie Bullock Stanley Johnson Blake Griffin Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 11 8 26 17 7 DvP 23 23 27 29 15
DRPM Rat. 18 21 6 23 11 DRPM Rat. 1 8 28 14 23

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have only won six of their last ten games, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They have been very competitive over the last few weeks. With no first-round pick in the upcoming draft, they are one of the few non-playoff teams that is actually trying to win basketball games. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Pistons and it doesn’t help that the game is in Detroit. With that said, the Lakers are basically playing a seven-man rotation and they come into the game with an implied total of 104.5 points.

Let me start by saying all five Lakers’ starters deserve consideration as elite plays in both cash games and tournaments. With Brandon Ingram and Isaiah Thomas out, all five starters should play minutes in the mid to upper-30s with increased usage. That’s hard to pass on, regardless of the matchup. Lonzo Ball has struggled with his shot this season, but is still producing at a high level. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will have revenge on his mind, as he takes on his former team. Kyle Kuzma has played at least 40 minutes in each of the last two games and has taken at least 18 shot attempts in three of his last five outings.

Julius Randle has been very consistent since the Lakers traded Larry Nance. Randle’s minutes have been secure and he’s always been a great producer while on the floor. He feels a little overpriced tonight, but I’m willing to pay the small premium in a matchup against Blake Griffin. Brook Lopez draws a tough matchup on paper, but it may actually work to his benefit. Andre Drummond is an excellent low-post defender and rim protector, but he rarely has to defend players on the perimeter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lopez just sits back and shoots long jumpers and three-pointers all night.

Notable Injuries

Brandon Ingram (Out)
Isaiah Thomas (Out)
Josh Hart (Out)

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (10 of 10)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Lonzo Ball $8,300 $7,800 $14,400 34.4 0.6 34.3 5.8 1.00 18.0% 20 11 18
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $6,100 $6,200 $12,000 27.8 -0.8 33.9 5.3 0.82 15.4% 3 8 21
Kyle Kuzma $6,600 $6,900 $13,600 27.5 8.1 30.6 7.8 0.90 19.6% 21 26 6
Julius Randle $7,900 $7,900 $14,800 30.1 7.6 26.5 9.5 1.14 21.5% 14 17 23
Brook Lopez $6,400 $6,000 $11,900 24.2 9.6 23.2 10.9 1.04 20.9% 14 7 11
Travis Wear $3,600 $3,000 $6,000 10.2 1.2 12.7 2.4 0.80 15.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Julius Randle, Brook Lopez

Secondary Plays – None


Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are mathematically still alive in the East, so they will continue to play their starters big minutes until they are officially eliminated from playoff contention. They draw one of the best matchups on the board, as they take on a Lakers’ team that is ranked first in pace of play and 25th in points allowed per game. The Pistons have an implied total of 109 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate and six points above their season average.

For a team with such a high implied total, the Pistons have surprisingly few fantasy options. Reggie Jackson is expected to play 20-25 minutes, which isn’t quite enough to warrant consideration in cash games. Meanwhile, it cuts enough into the playing time of Ish Smith that we can’t really play him either. Reggie Bullock should play 30+ minutes in a pace-up matchup, but will be defended by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who is still an excellent defender.

The two best plays in Detroit’s lineup are obviously Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Griffin has scored at least 49 fantasy points in three of his last four games and has a favorable matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked 26th in efficiency and 29th in DvP against power forwards. Andre Drummond has been hit or miss recently, but the Lakers have little to no shot at keeping him off the glass or out of the paint. You will hear the argument that Brook Lopez will pull Drummond away from the rim on defense (which is true), but Drummond should dominate offensively.

Notable Injuries

Stanley Johnson (Probable)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 103.0 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 6.0 (2 of 10)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.0 (1 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $4,500 $4,400 $8,700 24.9 -12.1 26.4 -7.3 0.94 25.8% 22 23 1
Reggie Bullock $4,900 $4,800 $9,200 18.4 4.1 27.6 2.6 0.67 14.3% 7 23 8
Stanley Johnson $3,900 $3,600 $7,000 18.2 -0.4 26.9 -7.6 0.68 14.8% 20 27 28
Blake Griffin $8,800 $9,200 $16,800 39.2 2.6 34.1 0.5 1.15 27.6% 26 29 14
Andre Drummond $10,200 $9,700 $17,600 45.8 0.6 33.3 1.1 1.38 18.6% 20 15 23
Luke Kennard $4,600 $4,500 $8,500 13.8 10.7 19.3 8.7 0.71 15.4% N/A N/A N/A
Ish Smith $5,200 $5,000 $10,600 22.5 5.1 25.5 4.2 0.88 21.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin (FD), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin (DK), Andre Drummond (Cash), Reggie Bullock, Reggie Jackson (GPP)


Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Minnesota Timberwolves
memphisnba Vegas Total 214.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Spread 13.0 Vegas Spread -13.0
Implied Team Total 100.8 Implied Team Total 113.8
Pace Projection +/- -1.2 Pace Projection +/- -2.6
Projected Starters Andrew Harrison Dillon Brooks Jarell Martin JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Projected Starters Jeff Teague Andrew Wiggins Nemanja Bjelica Taj Gibson Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 18 19 3 8 10 DvP 20 24 16 14 1
DRPM Rat. 18 28 9 12 24 DRPM Rat. 21 18 24 29 10

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have a lot to not play for, if that makes any sense. They are currently tied with the Suns for the fewest number of wins in basketball. A matchup against the Wolves looks favorable on paper, but we can throw that out for the most part. The Grizzlies have already started their vacation planning and that likely includes the front office as well. They come into tonight’s game as 13-point underdogs on the road with an implied total of only 100.8 points.

In the absence of Tyreke Evans on Saturday, Andrew Harrison played 36 minutes and scored 39 fantasy points. I am not expecting 36 minutes again tonight, some something in the low 30s is a reasonable projection. Harrison is a wildcard, but I’m a fan of the matchup and his price point. Wayne Selden has played well off the bench, but is stuck into a 20-22 minute role that limits his upside. The Grizzlies’ frontcourt would have some appeal if this game meant something to Memphis. I have a hard time playing Jarell Martin, JaMychal Green, and Marc Gasol at this point of the season, especially when all three are healthy.

Notable Injuries

Tyreke Evans (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Questionable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 98.7 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 (6 of 10)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Andrew Harrison $5,800 $5,200 $10,900 19.2 7.0 23.5 4.4 0.82 19.4% 15 18 18
Dillon Brooks $4,200 $4,300 $8,400 17.7 0.5 28.7 -0.2 0.61 15.4% 28 19 28
Jarell Martin $5,000 $4,600 $9,000 17.0 5.7 22.3 6.3 0.76 14.6% 7 3 9
JaMychal Green $6,600 $5,900 $12,400 24.4 5.5 27.9 1.5 0.87 15.9% 5 8 12
Marc Gasol $7,800 $7,200 $13,800 37.3 -7.7 33.7 -2.5 1.11 23.5% 27 10 24
Wayne Selden $4,000 $3,800 13.5 7.8 19.0 2.8 0.71 19.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Andrew Harrison (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andrew Harrison (Cash), Wayne Selden (DK)


Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have lost six of their last ten games and have dropped down to seventh in the Western Conference standings. With the Clippers and Nuggets hot on their heels, they will be treating every game from here on out as a must-win. A matchup against the Grizzlies used to be a difficult one, but that is no longer the case now that Memphis is in full tank mode. The Wolves come into the game with an implied total of 113.8 points, which is the third highest on the board and four points above their season average.

It scares me that I’m not as high on Jeff Teague as everyone else tonight. It’s typically the other way around. I’m a fan of his matchup and the price point is appealing on DraftKings ($6,600), but I don’t see Teague as a core play tonight. That doesn’t mean that he won’t end up in my lineups, but I won’t be forcing him in there. The same goes for Andrew Wiggins. He’s viable thanks to a lack of options at shooting guard, but I hate targeting players that rely heavily on scoring points for their fantasy production. I would rather play Jamal Crawford off the bench. He’s considerably cheaper and would likely see garbage time if this game gets out of hand early.

Nemanja Bjelica has made the most of his opportunities to start with Jimmy Butler out. He’s been a little volatile over his last few games but should play minutes in the mid-30s in a favorable matchup against the Grizzlies. Taj Gibson has not been in the best of form and can be avoided in all formats. Karl-Anthony Towns has been pushing for close to 40 minutes in close games recently. The problem is twofold — this game has the largest spread in the slate (13 points) and he’ll have his hands full with Marc Gasol, who is still an elite low-post defender. With so many great options at center, I will likely be avoiding Towns in both cash games and tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (Out)
Derrick Rose (Out)

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 110.0 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (5 of 10)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (30 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,400 $6,600 $12,300 30.8 -0.1 32.9 -1.0 0.93 20.3% 23 20 21
Andrew Wiggins $7,000 $6,500 $12,100 29.1 4.8 36.1 -0.9 0.81 21.1% 15 24 18
Nemanja Bjelica $5,800 $5,800 $11,500 15.8 4.1 19.8 12.2 0.80 13.3% 9 16 24
Taj Gibson $5,300 $5,400 $10,400 26.2 -7.9 33.4 -1.7 0.78 13.2% 22 14 29
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,400 $9,300 $18,900 43.6 0.6 35.3 0.5 1.24 19.9% 2 1 10
Jamal Crawford $4,200 $3,900 $7,900 16.0 1.2 20.2 5.5 0.79 22.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Nemanja Bjelica (FD)

Secondary Plays – Nemanja Bjelica (DK), Jeff Teague (borderline elite play on DK), Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns


Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Phoenix Suns
bostonnba Vegas Total 210.0 phoenixnba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread -9.0 Vegas Spread 9.0
Implied Team Total 109.5 Implied Team Total 100.5
Pace Projection +/- 3.3 Pace Projection +/- -1.3
Projected Starters Terry Rozier Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum Al Horford Aron Baynes Projected Starters Elfrid Payton Troy Daniels Josh Jackson Dragan Bender Marquese Chriss
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 28 30 25 30 27 DvP 2 5 11 2 3
DRPM Rat. 25 30 25 27 15 DRPM Rat. 4 2 4 1 1

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after beating the Kings in Sacramento last night. They typically aren’t a great team to target for fantasy production, but we might have to make an exception tonight. They draw the best possible matchup, as they face a Suns’ team that is ranked dead last in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Celtics have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate and five points above their season average.

Terry Rozier has made the most of his opportunity to start, averaging 34 minutes and 36 fantasy points over his last five games. His price is a little expensive on DraftKings, but he is one of the top point-per-dollar options on FanDuel ($7,100). Jaylen Brown logged 25 minutes in his first game back from injury. He played well, but will likely be held under 30 minutes again tonight. Jayson Tatum is a bit overpriced across the industry, even in an elite matchup against the Suns.

Marcus Morris missed last night’s game and is currently listed as questionable. I’m sure he wants to be in the lineup, as he didn’t have the best breakup from the Suns. This is one of the few times where revenge may actually motivate a player, but we can’t really target Morris unless we know that he is going to play. This is also a revenge game for Greg Monroe, who has averaged 27 fantasy points over his last five games. Al Horford will garner some ownership tonight, but there are a handful of centers that I would rather play in this slate. For such a great matchup, there isn’t a lot to love from the Celtics.

Notable Injuries

Marcus Morris (Questionable)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 5.2 (4 of 10)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.9 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.8 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (2 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Terry Rozier $7,100 $7,600 $14,000 23.1 13.3 25.2 8.7 0.91 20.0% 28 28 25
Jaylen Brown $6,000 $5,100 $10,300 25.0 -0.1 30.9 -5.7 0.81 18.2% 29 30 30
Jayson Tatum $6,600 $6,800 $12,900 25.7 4.6 30.6 -0.2 0.84 16.5% 25 25 25
Al Horford $6,800 $6,300 $12,500 31.9 -6.1 31.6 -0.3 1.01 17.6% 30 30 27
Aron Baynes $3,500 $3,400 $6,400 15.6 -0.1 17.9 0.9 0.87 14.5% 23 27 15
Marcus Morris $5,700 $6,400 $13,400 23.2 5.3 26.4 5.6 0.88 20.1% N/A N/A N/A
Shane Larkin $3,600 $3,600 $6,800 8.8 7.7 13.0 11.7 0.68 15.4% N/A N/A N/A
Greg Monroe $5,500 $5,500 $10,600 23.1 4.2 20.1 1.6 1.15 19.2% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Terry Rozier (FD)

Secondary Plays – Terry Rozier (DK), Greg Monroe, Marcus Morris (if active)


Phoenix Suns

The Suns are expected to be without three of their starters again tonight. Tyson Chandler and T.J. Warren have already been ruled out and Devin Booker is expected to sit. Phoenix is tied with the Grizzlies for the fewest number of wins in basketball, so I’m a little surprised that the spread is set at nine points. By the time lineups lock, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in the double digits. Anyway, this is an awful matchup for fantasy production. The Suns have an implied total of 100.5 points, which is the lowest on the board and nearly four points below their season average.

Elfrid Payton played 33 minutes against the Magic on Saturday, but something tells me that had more to do with the revenge narrative than anything else. He hadn’t topped 30 minutes in any of his previous nine games. Troy Daniels could push for 30 minutes again and offers decent value at shooting guard, but Celtics have been so tough on wing players this season. Josh Jackson could play 35+ minutes with high usage regardless of the game’s outcome. He’s my favorite target from Phoenix tonight. Alex Len has played well off the bench, but it sounds like Alan Williams is going to make his season debut. With Len stating publicly that he wants out of Phoenix, I don’t feel great about the play, especially in this matchup.

Notable Injuries

Tyson Chandler (Out)
T.J. Warren (Out)
Devin Booker (Doubtful)

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -3.5 (9 of 10)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.3 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (23 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $5,600 $5,600 $11,300 30.0 -12.3 28.9 -4.6 1.04 21.7% 4 2 4
Troy Daniels $3,800 $4,000 $7,600 12.0 7.0 20.3 6.4 0.59 15.5% 2 5 2
Josh Jackson $7,200 $6,700 $13,000 22.4 13.8 24.6 8.3 0.91 21.9% 3 11 4
Dragan Bender $4,100 $3,700 $7,200 14.6 1.2 24.7 5.8 0.59 10.9% 5 2 1
Marquese Chriss $4,400 $3,800 $7,200 18.6 4.1 20.5 1.4 0.91 15.0% 7 3 1
Alex Len $5,300 $4,700 $9,900 21.7 5.1 20.0 3.5 1.08 14.5% N/A N/A N/A
Tyler Ulis $3,500 $3,300 $6,000 16.4 -1.2 21.9 -5.0 0.75 17.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Josh Jackson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Josh Jackson (Cash), Troy Daniels, Marquese Chriss (DK)


About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious