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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 16th

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-01-18 02:18:07

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

NOTE – My apologies but I had a friend that I attended college and law school with unexpectedly pass away, so I have funeral obligations today. As a result, I’ve had to cut some of the player info down but will get back to the normal protocol next week. Good luck to everyone today.

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Boston at Washington – 07:00 PM

Boston Washington
bostonnba Vegas Total washingtonnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 101.05 Team Pace 99.98
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 6 27 29 7 11 Opp. Season 1 6 25 24 19
Opp. Last 7 5 11 20 13 12 Opp. Season 2 6 25 29 13

Boston

Boston Celtics

Record: 21-19 — Road: 10-9 — Last 10: 4-6

The Celtics draw one of the better matchups on the board as they’ll face an uptempo Washington team that has not been very good defensively this season. They have the third highest pace boost of the night and the Wizards have been particularly weak defending opposing wings. Both Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are great mid-range options, and Bradley’s price is depressed around the industry. Isaiah Thomas is a secondary option due to the tough matchup with John Wall. The Boston frontcourt can be tough to nail down, but Amir Johnson has been the most productive recently.

Elite Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Amir Johnson

Washington

Record: 19-19 — Home: 9-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards face a solid Boston defense and have some injury uncertainty. They are expected to get Marcin Gortat back from injury, but Otto Porter is questionable after missing last night’s game. Boston has played very good defense on wings so John Wall is a secondary option, and Bradley Beal is playing limited minutes. Gortat draws the best matchup and is in play assuming he’s not on a minutes restriction.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays- John Wall, Marcin Gortat

Milwaukee at Charlotte – 07:00 PM

Milwaukee Charlotte
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 200 charlottenba Vegas Total 200
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 96.30 Team Pace 98.08
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj Starter Kemba Walker P. J. Hairston Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 16 16 10 27 12 Opp. Season 12 19 28 26 13
Opp. Last 7 19 2 24 27 2 Opp. Season 8 20 22 24 4

Milwaukee

Record: 17-25 — Road: 5-18 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bucks starters have all seen big minutes recently and have all been productive recently. Charlotte is an average defensive team and everyone outside of Greg Monroe has a solid matchup tonight. In particular, Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmp have been great recently, while Michael Carter-Williams is locked into big minutes as long as Jerryd Bayless and O. J. Mayo remain sidelined. Jabari Parker seems to be finally rounding into form following his injury as he’s produced 24.6 FD points or more in four straight games. PF is fairly thin so he’s a solid value option.

Elite Plays – Michael Carter-Williams (if Jerryd Bayless out), Jabari Parker

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Charlotte

Record: 18-21 — Home: 14-7 — Last 10: 2-8

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.41 (23 of 30)

Charlotte will face a Milwaukee team that has really slipped defensively this season and also has struggled on the road. They have a nice team total of 103 points and have played very well at home this season. Kemba Walker in particular shoots much better at home than on the road and has picked up big usage recently. Nicolas Batum is listed as a GTD, but is expected to play. Assuming he’s on no minutes restriction, he has a plus matchup and is shouldering the offensive load along with Kemba. Jeremy Lamb is doubtful for tonight and Jeremy Lin is a GTD so both Kemba and Batum could see big offensive usage as well as big minutes if both Lamb and Lin are out. Milwaukee struggles to rebound the ball so Cody Zeller is a secondary option at PF.

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum

Secondary Plays – Cody Zeller

Brooklyn at Atlanta – 07:30 PM

Brooklyn Atlanta
brooklynnba Vegas Total 205 atlantanba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 97.24 Team Pace 99.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 14 22 19 12 25 Opp. Season 27 24 20 18 27
Opp. Last 7 21 30 16 19 20 Opp. Season 23 14 7 30 17

Brooklyn

Record: 11-29 — Road: 4-14 — Last 10: 3-7

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.2 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.45 (20 of 30)

There’s a good chance Brooklyn gets pasted in this one as they are one of the worst teams in the NBA and 11 point underdogs. Despite that fact both Thaddues Young and Brook Lopez are prime options tonight against an Atlanta team that has struggled against big men all season long. They are dead last in rebounding differential so both Lopez and Young should be able to hit the glass hard tonight. Donald Sloan has stepped into the starting lineup for Jarrett Jack and is a punt option at PG. However, he’s best suited for GPP as he’s either produced 30 fantasy points or 10 fantasy points over his past four games, and is splitting time with Shane Larkin.

Elite Plays – Brook Lopez, Thaddeus Young

Secondary Plays – Donald Sloan

Atlanta

Record: 23-17 — Home: 13-7 — Last 10: 5-5

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +0.2 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.71 (26 of 30)

The Hawks should roll in this one and check in with one of the highest team totals on the night. The Nets have struggled across the board defensively this year so every Atlanta starters draws a quality matchup. They are a tough team to target but Paul Millsap has been their most consistent option all season long. Al Horford and Kent Bazemore are secondary options as they can be volatile, but the matchup is there tonight. Finally, Jeff Teague’s minutes are all over the place so he’s a GPP only option, but he does have upside at his depressed price point.

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap

Secondary Plays – Al Horford, Kent Bazemore, Jeff Teague (GPP)

Golden State at Detroit – 07:30 PM

Golden State Detroit
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 214 detroitnba Vegas Total 214
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 110.5 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 101.72 Team Pace 97.77
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Brandon Rush Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 11 10 2 22 8 Opp. Season 20 5 16 17 18
Opp. Last 7 25 7 4 14 26 Opp. Season 3 25 23 22 27

Golden State

Record: 37-3 — Road: 18-3 — Last 10: 8-2

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +4.0 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 191.29 (6 of 30)

The Warriors have a tough test tonight as they’ll face a Detroit team that has been solid defensively. However, they are 7 point favorites and still have a team total of 110 points. The matchup is not ideal but this game should be competitive so Stephen Curry’s minutes are very secure, which puts him as an elite option. The Pistons have struggled against PG recently so it’s a solid matchup. The Pistons have been solid defensively this year, but they have been poor against PF and this is a homecoming game for Draymond. Along with Curry, he’s an elite option tonight, while Klay Thompson is a secondary option due to a tough matchup. Andrew Bogut minutes can be tough to predict but he could see a small uptick tonight to help combat Andre Drummond.

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, Andrew Bogut

Detroit

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.3 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.51 (15 of 30)

The Pistons have been a very good home team this year and are expected to keep this one somewhat close with the best team in the NBA. In terms of efficiency the Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but due to their fast pace they can be targeted. Reggie Jackson draws the best matchup as Stephen Curry is not a great defender, but his minutes have trended down since the return of Brandon Jennings. He does bring upside for tournaments but is tough to trust for cash games. Andre Drummond has tailed off recently, but does always bring that 20 point and 20 rebound upside to the table. Finally, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is never fun to roster, but he plays monster minutes and should benefit from the pace bump. Overall there are no elite options, but the Pistons do have a team total of 103 points, which is 2 higher than their season average so they are fine tournament options.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Andre Drummond

Portland at Philadelphia – 07:30 PM

Portland Philadelphia
portlandnba Vegas Total philadelphianba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 97.19 Team Pace 99.62
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj Starter Ish Smith Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 18 20 30 29 30 Opp. Season 24 15 8 19 26
Opp. Last 7 4 28 27 6 14 Opp. Season 22 3 28 12 10

Portland

Record: 18-24 — Road: 8-15 — Last 10: 6-4

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 210.15 (28 of 30)

Portland is in a great spot as they’ll face the awful 76ers and have a team total of 106 points, which is 5 points higher than their season average. The primary concern when targeting teams against the 76ers is the risk of a blowout. However, Portland is not a great team, this game is in Philly, and the spread is only 5.5 points. That puts Damian Lillard as an elite option and he’s one of the top targets regardless of position. He’s coming off of a 53 FD point game last night, and should be able to do whatever he wants in this one. C. J. McCollum also draws a plus matchup, but he’s very expensive on some sites, which makes him a secondary option as you’ll have to price shop on him. Outside of Lillard and McCollum, no other Portland player has trust worthy minutes. Al-Farouq Aminu and Mason Plumlee possess the most upside, but are tournament only options as their minutes are not secure.

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard

Secondary Plays- C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu

Philadelphia

Record: 4-37 — Home: 2-16 — Last 10: 3-7

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.1 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.33 (17 of 30)

The 76ers are only 5.5 point underdogs and have played better since the acquisition of Ish Smith. Speaking of Ish, he’s still very affordable on Fanduel and has reeled off at least 38 FD points in three straight games. Damian Lillard is a very poor defender and I expect both Lillard and Ish to have success offensively tonight. Outside of PG, Portland is also weak on the interior, particularly against centers. Jahlil Okafor has played at least 30 minutes in each of the past three games and is a solid mid-range target. Nerlens Noel has really benefitted from the acquisition of Ish Smith as he’s getting easy buckets on pick and rolls. He was sick last game and didn’t play his full allotment of minutes, but is a viable option if he’s fully recovered. Jerami Grant is doubtful for tonight so Jakarr Sampson could draw the start, but he’s not a guy who should be rostered.

Elite Plays – Ish Smith

Secondary Plays – Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)