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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-12 02:56:18

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder – 3:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz Oklahoma City Thunder
utahnba Vegas Total 205.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 101.5 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- 1.8 Pace +/- -5.0
Proj. Starter Dante Exum Rodney Hood Joe Johnson Gordon Hayward Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 9 19 17 19 Adj. DvP 2 1 3 1 4
DRPM -0.09 0.85 2.02 1.46 1.67 DRPM -1.20 0.69 -1.09 -0.11 5.49

Utah Jazz

If you were looking forward to a weekend Grind Down from INSYPR, I have to apologize. He has covered for me on a number of occasions and he asked if I could cover for him on his birthday weekend. I’ll be doing the Grind Down today and tomorrow.

The Jazz have won four games in a row, but draw a fairly difficult matchup today against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. This game should stay close and there are only three games in the early slate, so if you are playing, you will likely have to target players from all three games.

George Hill and Derrick Favors are both listed as questionable for this game. If Hill is unable to suit up, Dante Exum would draw another start at point guard with Shelvin Mack out. Exum doesn’t have enough upside to warrant fantasy consideration though, as he is only averaging 0.58 fantasy points per minute this season. Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward would carry the load offensively if Hill is out. If Hill is active, he would step right back into the starting lineup and become an intriguing tournament option. Rudy Gobert draws a difficult matchup against Steven Adams, but he doesn’t rely on isolation plays for his fantasy production. Typically with Gobert, the matchup is secondary. He is firmly in play in the early three game slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dante Exum $3,500 $3,300 0.58 18.1 0.5 10.6 0.7 19.3% 5.6% 25 -0.09
Rodney Hood $4,500 $4,800 0.75 28.5 1.0 21.3 5.1 22.8% 1.7% 9 0.85
Joe Johnson $3,600 $3,500 0.66 22.7 4.1 15.0 1.9 18.2% 1.4% 19 2.02
Gordon Hayward $7,800 $7,500 1.00 34.7 0.0 34.8 -2.4 27.6% -1.8% 17 1.56
Rudy Gobert $7,800 $7,400 1.03 33.5 0.0 34.6 1.5 15.7% 0.5% 19 1.67

Elite Plays – Rodney Hood, Rudy Gobert

Secondary Plays – Gordon Hayward

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have won five of their last ten games and are currently tied with the Grizzlies for the sixth seed in the West. They draw arguably the worst matchup in all of fantasy basketball tonight, as they square off against the Jazz. On the season, Utah is ranked 29th in pace of play and first in point allowed per game. The Thunder have an implied total that is considerably lower than their season average and they are projected to see around five fewer possessions.

Even though this is a pace-down game for the Thunder, Russell Westbrook has scored 63 and 70 fantasy points in his last two games against the Jazz. He led his team to victory in both contests with some clutch baskets in the fourth quarter. With this game only being included in the early slate, Westbrook should be treated as the top overall play on the board. He’s not the point-per-dollar play, but he has the highest raw projection of anyone. Victor Oladipo has played 26 and 28 minutes since coming back from injury. While he could push for 30 minutes today, he is more of a secondary play against the Jazz. Taj Gibson didn’t play well in his first start with the Thunder, but could see extended action against a Jazz team that doesn’t play a lot of small ball. Enes Kanter remains the preferred target over Steven Adams, as he has been more productive in the last couple of weeks. Kanter also has the revenge narrative in his corner.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,700 $12,500 1.67 34.9 1.1 58.3 7.8 46.0% 3.9% 2 -1.20
Victor Oladipo $5,900 $5,200 0.80 33.4 -6.9 26.6 -1.0 21.3% 0.6% 1 0.69
Andre Roberson $4,000 $3,500 0.58 30.5 -1.0 17.8 -1.6 10.2% -1.4% 3 -1.09
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,000 0.60 21.0 -4.1 12.6 -0.7 14.8% 1.9% 1 -0.11
Steven Adams $5,300 $4,500 0.83 30.5 -3.2 25.2 -8.4 16.4% -1.8% 4 5.49
Enes Kanter $5,600 $5,300 1.12 21.8 0.6 24.4 -0.7 25.6% 0.9% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter, Victor Oladipo, Taj Gibson (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Los Angeles Clippers
philadelphianba Vegas Total 216.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Spread 12.5 Vegas Spread -12.5
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 114.5
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- 2.0
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Dario Saric Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 11 17 7 18 Adj. DvP 20 26 21 9 30
DRPM 3.50 -1.63 2.79 0.70 2.83 DRPM -0.11 -1.38 3.34 -1.30 -1.54

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have lost seven of their last ten games and draw a difficult matchup today against the Clippers. When healthy, the Clippers are a top ten defense. The Sixers have a low implied total and they come into the game as 12.5-point underdogs, so a blowout here is certainly a possibility. Even though there are only three games included in the early slate, I plan to have very limited exposure to Philadelphia. The Clippers have been tough against point guards, small forwards, and power forwards, which basically takes T.J. McConnell, Robert Covington, and Dario Saric out of play. The only play on my radar is Jahlil Okafor, who played 29 minutes and 26 fantasy points in his first game back from injury. At $5,100 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings, he deserves consideration in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,300 $5,200 0.81 25.3 3.1 20.6 1.6 19.1% -0.1% 11 3.50
Nik Stauskas $3,500 $3,600 0.59 27.0 2.0 15.9 -1.8 16.4% 0.8% 11 -1.63
Robert Covington $7,200 $6,900 0.84 31.5 0.4 26.4 3.0 18.5% 3.2% 17 2.79
Dario Saric $7,500 $7,700 0.88 25.5 6.2 22.4 10.7 23.3% 2.2% 7 0.70
Jahlil Okafor $5,100 $4,800 0.88 23.0 0.7 20.2 1.0 22.8% 3.4% 18 2.83
Richaun Holmes $4,400 $5,000 0.93 17.5 6.2 16.3 3.5 17.2% -0.7% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Jahlil Okafor (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jahlil Okafor (Cash), Robert Covington, Dario Saric

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have won five of their last ten games, but they continue to lose ground to the Jazz. Unless they can go on a run in the last month of the season, they will not have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They draw an exploitable matchup today against the Sixers, who are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Clippers have an implied total of 114.5 points, which is 6.7 points above their season average.

The question isn’t whether the Clippers are going to have success in this matchup, it’s whether or not the starters will see a full complement of minutes. Generally, when there is upside present, I try not to factor in the potential blowout. Chris Paul is considerably cheaper than Russell Westbrook in the early slate and draws the better matchup of the two. This is a great buy low opportunity on Paul, as he is priced below $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. J.J. Redick, Austin Rivers, and Jamal Crawford have been inconsistent this season, but all three carry GPP value in this three game slate. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan should be able to dominate a Sixers’ frontcourt that just allowed Jusuf Nurkic to score 28 points and grab 20 rebounds on Thursday. Griffin and Jordan are both elite plays and you can pair them together in the same lineup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $8,700 $8,400 1.27 31.2 -0.9 39.6 -8.9 28.8% 0.8% 20 -0.11
J.J. Redick $4,000 $4,200 0.70 28.2 -4.8 19.8 -4.8 20.8% -0.6% 26 -1.38
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.52 22.3 -1.6 11.6 -0.7 10.9% -2.5% 21 3.34
Blake Griffin $9,100 $8,600 1.18 33.8 1.1 40.0 -6.6 29.9% -3.8% 9 -1.30
DeAndre Jordan $7,400 $6,700 1.05 31.5 -0.1 33.0 -3.6 14.7% 0.1% 30 -1.54
Jamal Crawford $3,900 $4,000 0.70 26.4 -1.7 18.5 1.6 23.4% 2.0% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan

Secondary Plays – J.J. Redick (GPP), Austin Rivers (GPP), Jamal Crawford (GPP)

New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons – 5:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Detroit Pistons
newyorknba Vegas Total 211.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 102.5 Team Total 108.5
Pace +/- -1.8 Pace +/- 0.3
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Willy Hernangomez Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 19 2 7 13 6 Adj. DvP 10 24 26 19 24
DRPM -2.90 -0.02 0.87 0.67 1.29 DRPM -2.62 -0.86 -1.93 1.97 1.13

New York Knicks

The Knicks have lost six of their last ten games and are all but out of playoff contention at this point. The franchise has some decisions to make moving forward and I don’t expect a lot out of them here in the last month of the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Knicks have an implied total of only 102.5 points, which is considerably lower than their season average.

The Pistons have been tough defensively this season, but there is one position that has had success against them. They are currently ranked 19th in adjusted DvP against point guards. Derrick Rose has seen a nice boost in minutes since the Knicks waived Brandon Jennings and he’s made the most of them. In his last five games, he is averaging 32 fantasy points per contest. The rest of the Knicks are risky fantasy options. The Pistons are tough on wing players and they have a good defensive frontcourt. Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis are both in play thanks to a lack of options in a three game slate, but I hesitate to call them elite fantasy options. Willy Hernangomez will make for an interesting tournament play if he draws another start at center.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,500 $6,000 0.89 32.6 1.7 28.9 3.3 27.6% -1.1% 19 -2.90
Courtney Lee $5,100 $4,600 0.62 31.8 4.0 19.7 2.8 14.5% 0.7% 2 -0.02
Carmelo Anthony $7,600 $7,300 1.02 34.5 2.8 35.4 -5.6 29.2% -7.0% 7 0.87
Kristaps Porzingis $6,400 $6,700 0.99 32.8 1.4 32.3 1.2 23.4% -1.2% 13 0.67
Willy Hernangomez $5,800 $5,300 1.03 16.6 3.2 17.1 4.8 19.1% 7.3% 6 1.29

Elite Plays – Derrick Rose

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis, Willy Hernangomez (GPP)

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games, but hold a very slim lead over the Heat and Pacers for the last playoff spot in the East. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the struggling Knicks at home. On the season, New York is ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Pistons have an implied total of 108.5 points, which is 6.4 points above their season average.

I listed Reggie Jackson as one of my favorite plays on Thursday night and he came through with a nice game against the Cavaliers. His minutes have slowly been trending upward and it looks like he has finally won back Stan Van Gundy’s trust. I will continue to buy low on Jackson, as he is a $6,000+ player when he is living up to his potential. I also like his matchup against Derrick Rose, who has a DRPM of -2.62. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been surprisingly inconsistent this season, but he should see minutes in the mid 30s against the Knicks. Marcus Morris is expensive and has cooled off after a hot streak. I’d rather target Tobias Harris, who is averaging 31 fantasy points in his last five games. The Knicks have struggled against centers all season and Andre Drummond has great splits at home. He is the top play at center in the early slate, slightly edging out Rudy Gobert and DeAndre Jordan.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,200 $5,400 0.89 28.2 -0.3 25.2 0.3 29.4% 0.7% 10 -2.62
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,700 $5,900 0.71 34.1 -1.9 24.3 -7.4 19.5% -4.7% 24 -0.86
Marcus Morris $5,900 $6,300 0.75 33.1 -2.8 24.7 0.2 20.2% 1.6% 26 -1.93
Jon Leuer $4,300 $4,600 0.77 27.0 -1.1 20.7 -1.8 17.5% 3.9% 19 1.97
Andre Drummond $8,000 $7,500 1.19 30.5 0.0 36.4 1.1 22.3% -1.7% 24 1.13
Tobias Harris $5,600 $5,800 0.83 31.6 -0.5 26.1 4.9 21.6% 1.4% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond

Secondary Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris

New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Charlotte Hornets
neworleansnba Vegas Total 202.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 102.5
Pace +/- -0.2 Pace +/- 1.1
Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Hollis Thompson Solomon Hill DeMarcus Cousins Anthony Davis Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 14 17 16 28 22 Adj. DvP 23 8 6 20 21
DRPM -0.84 -0.66 2.43 0.76 2.98 DRPM 0.92 -1.23 1.31 0.51 3.18

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have lost six of their last ten games and may have already given up on the playoffs this season. They are a team with a potentially bright future, but they need to bring in a few pieces to surround Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in what is expected to be a close game throughout. The issue is the pace and the matchup. On the season, Charlotte is ranked 17th in pace and ninth in points allowed per game.

Surprisingly enough, Jrue Holiday usage rate has actually gone up since the DeMarcus Cousins trade. I suppose it makes sense, as the Pelicans traded all of their ball handlers for a big man. While Anthony Davis and Cousins are still getting up plenty of shots, Holiday is still the creator in the offense. I wish he was priced a bit cheaper because people have been hesitant to play him. While I like Holiday more than most moving forward, I’m not a fan of him tonight. E’Twaun Moore has been playing 28-30 minutes a night and is close to minimum salary if you need a punt play at shooting guard. Even though Davis and Cousins cut into each other’s usage, they should be able to dominate a Hornets’ frontcourt that is missing Miles Plumlee and Frank Kaminsky. The likes of Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller, and Christian Wood are no match for Davis and Cousins. I see them both as borderline elite plays.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $7,500 $7,300 1.00 32.6 0.4 32.7 -1.6 27.8% 1.3% 14 -0.84
Hollis Thompson $3,500 $3,000 0.57 18.9 4.5 10.7 1.2 12.6% -2.4% 17 -0.66
Solomon Hill $3,500 $3,000 0.52 28.7 0.3 14.9 -4.5 11.4% -0.6% 16 2.43
DeMarcus Cousins $10,500 $10,100 1.42 34.4 3.3 48.8 -8.4 35.5% -4.7% 28 0.76
Anthony Davis $10,900 $9,900 1.37 36.1 -2.2 49.4 -9.3 30.7% -2.4% 22 2.98
E’Twaun Moore $3,900 $3,500 0.68 25.0 3.3 17.1 0.3 18.0% -1.9% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore

Charlotte Hornets

After the first two minutes of last night’s game against the Magic, you could tell that the Hornets had their A-game last night. The game was basically over by halftime and a big run from Charlotte to start the third really hurt everyone’s fantasy production. Tonight’s game against the Pelicans should be more competitive, but this isn’t exactly an ideal matchup. On the season, New Orleans is ranked seventh in defensive efficiency. The Hornets have an implied total of only 102.5 points, which is considerably lower than their season average.

Kemba Walker snapped his string of consecutive 40+ fantasy point outings last night, but most of that had to do with his limited playing time. He still managed to put up 26 fantasy points in only 24 minutes. Jrue Holiday is an above-average defender, but the Pelicans have struggled against point guards as a whole, ranking 23rd in adjusted DvP. Walker is a borderline elite play in all formats. Nicolas Batum caught fire in the first half last night, but the Pelicans have done a nice job at defending wing players this season. Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller will both play 35+ minutes tonight if they can stay out of foul trouble. That’s obviously a big if against Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, but the minute upside is massive. I prefer Zeller of the two, but both are on my radar. Oh, and if you missed it, check out the video of Williams nearly sending Biyombo into retirement.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,400 $8,100 1.06 34.7 1.3 36.9 6.9 30.2% 2.9% 23 0.92
Nicolas Batum $7,200 $7,000 0.93 34.8 -0.6 32.5 -4.3 23.9% 1.8% 8 -1.23
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,400 $5,000 0.79 29.5 -2.7 23.3 0.6 14.3% 1.8% 6 1.31
Marvin Williams $5,900 $5,600 0.75 29.6 5.9 22.2 6.8 16.3% -2.6% 20 0.51
Cody Zeller $5,100 $5,200 0.86 27.0 2.0 23.2 -0.1 16.5% -1.9% 21 3.18
Jeremy Lamb $3,800 $3,300 0.92 18.0 2.7 16.6 -2.8 22.4% -6.1% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Cody Zeller

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Orlando Magic
clevelandnba Vegas Total 213.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread -9.0 Vegas Spread 9.0
Team Total 111.3 Team Total 102.3
Pace +/- -0.4 Pace +/- 0.0
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Richard Jefferson Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 18 12 12 26 Adj. DvP 21 29 22 6 16
DRPM -0.70 -0.69 -0.69 -0.57 0.61 DRPM -1.53 -0.49 1.17 -0.61 1.30

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have lost three games in a row. Their lead over the Wizards and Celtics is now down to 2.5 games with 19 to play. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers come into the game as 8.5-point favorites with an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate.

Kevin Love is still out for Cleveland, so we can continue to load up on Kyrie Irving. He sees the biggest usage bump without Love on the floor and his price isn’t outrageous. He is still under $9,000 on DraftKings. He should have no issues scoring against Elfrid Payton and the Magic, who are ranked 24th in adjusted DvP against point guards. James has been on a tear in his last five games, averaging 61 fantasy points per contest. He is finally showing an upside that we didn’t see very often from him in the first half of the season. James is an elite play in all formats. I prefer to target Tristan Thompson when Channing Frye starts next to him. The two have been splitting minutes at center recently, which isn’t ideal. Thompson is more of a tournament play, despite the favorable matchup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,300 $8,900 1.08 35.2 1.6 38.2 6.8 32.2% 1.8% 24 -0.70
Iman Shumpert $3,500 $3,200 0.58 25.6 1.9 14.7 -4.5 14.0% -0.2% 18 -0.69
LeBron James $11,600 $11,000 1.30 37.6 1.6 48.9 12.0 33.1% 3.1% 12 -0.69
Richard Jefferson $3,600 $3,000 0.51 20.3 4.0 10.3 2.6 12.4% 1.6% 12 -0.57
Tristan Thompson $5,600 $4,900 0.78 30.2 0.8 23.4 -2.7 11.2% 0.6% 26 0.61
Channing Frye $4,400 $3,700 0.85 18.9 0.2 16.0 1.4 19.2% -1.1% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson (DK), Channing Frye (DK)

Orlando Magic

The Magic actually shot the ball well in the first half last night against the Hornets and were still down by 20 at the half. After a bad start to the third quarter, Frank Vogel was quick to pull his starters. I expect a better performance from Orlando tonight, even though the matchup is tougher on paper. In terms of potential fantasy production, the Cavaliers are actually a favorable matchup, as they are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game this season. If this game stays close, it should be filled with fantasy goodness.

Nikola Vucevic has missed the last four games with an Achilles injury and even though he is considered questionable for tonight, I don’t expect him to play. When a player has been out for an extended period of time, 24 hours usually isn’t enough time to change how he’s feeling. For our purposes, let’s assume that Vucevic is out. Elfrid Payton has been terrific in his last five games, averaging 37 fantasy points per contest. Vucevic is mostly used in low post isolations, so when he is off the floor, the Magic need Payton to create and he’s done a great job of that recently. His price is a bit high, but I like his matchup against Kyrie Irving. Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross both see a big usage rate bump without Vucevic in the lineup. Fournier is the more consistent of the two, but both are worth a look tonight. Aaron Gordon may be asked to defend LeBron James, so if he can stay out of foul trouble, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play 35 minutes. Bismack Biyombo has played well as a spot starter this season, but he is no longer an elite value.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $7,000 $7,000 0.94 29.1 0.5 27.3 9.9 25.3% -2.6% 21 -1.53
Evan Fournier $5,600 $5,700 0.77 33.3 1.4 25.6 1.5 24.0% -0.4% 29 -0.49
Terrence Ross $4,500 $5,200 0.74 23.7 10.4 17.5 4.3 18.6% -2.1% 22 1.17
Aaron Gordon $5,600 $5,900 0.77 27.8 2.0 21.3 5.3 19.7% 3.0% 6 -0.61
Bismack Biyombo $4,900 $5,400 0.76 23.6 6.1 18.0 2.7 13.2% 1.2% 16 1.30

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Evan Fournier (FD), Aaron Gordon (FD)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Evan Fournier (DK), Aaron Gordon (DK), Terrence Ross (FD), Bismack Biyombo (FD)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious