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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 26 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-03-26 19:10:45

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San Antonio at Oklahoma City – 08:00 PM

San Antonio Oklahoma City
sanantonionba Vegas Total 204 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd +12.5 Vegas Sprd -12.5
Team Proj. 95.75 Team Proj. 108.25
Team Pace 96.16 Team Pace 99.47
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Andre Miller Danny Green Kyle Anderson Boris Diaw David West Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 21 21 10 9 4 Opp. Season 4 1 1 2 3
Opp. Last 7 8 25 27 6 2 Opp. Last 7 3 27 4 3 3

San Antonio

Record: 61-11 — Road: 24-11 — Last 10: 8-2

This game was set up to be very exciting, but the Spurs have basically punted it as Kawhi Leonard is injured, and they’ll be resting Tim Duncan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Danny Green is their only starter that is expected to play so we are going to have wait for a starting lineup to be announced.

With the Spurs resting everyone, the season long numbers are basically meaningless. Vegas has the Spurs as heavy underdogs as the spread is bordering on a blowout. However, the upside is that there is lots of value to be had once we know a starting lineup.

Elite Plays

Boban Marjanovich, David West, Boris Diaw

My guess is that West and Diaw will draw the start, but that’s just a guess and maybe (hopefully) we see Boban draw the start tonight. With Aldridge and Duncan out, the Spurs will have Diaw, Marjanovich, West and Bonner as their big men, and all are basically minimum price. Marjanovich has been a very high fantasy point per minute producer this season and with the Spurs being light at big, he should see 20 minutes here. West sticks out as a great value option and can still score at a solid clip so he’s a guy I’ll be heavily targeting. The big question here is whether Diaw or Boban starts, but Boban is a tournament option regardless of whether he starts or not in my eyes, and all three merit strong consideration.

Secondary Plays

Patty Mills & Danny Green

I’m primarily targeting the Spurs big here, and Dellavedova seems like a safer punt option at PG than Mills now. However, Patty is a solid tournament pivot and does have the ability to really score the ball. He’ll likely split minutes with Andre Miller, and the Spurs could very well start Miller and keep Mills in his role off the bench, but he should see increased usage due to the Spurs depleted lineup. I’m still torn on Green as theoretically he should pick up some extra usage and SG is thin tonight. However, he’s not a guy who can create his own shot so he’s a guy who can benefit from stars being around him. In fact, he has struggled in some spots like this before so I’m still a little up in the air, and still prefer the Spurs bigs.

Oklahoma City

Record: 50-22 — Home: 29-9 — Last 10: 8-2

This the rare scenario where we’re not worried about the Spurs defense, but are worried about a potential blowout. These two teams met a few weeks ago, and the Spurs held Durant and Westbrook in check. The Spurs season long defensive numbers are elite, but based on what the Spurs are throwing out there tonight, it’s tough to put much stock in them.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

Westbrook threw up a dud against the Spurs in their last meeting, but with Aldridge and Duncan out, he should have free run to the rim in this one. I was on full fade Westy in the last meeting, but given the lineup the Spurs are throwing out there, this is a spot where he can be targeted. The only concern would be if the Spurs second unit is able to keep it competitive, but they’ve actually competed well in spots like this in the past.

FD — $10,600— PG
DK — $10,200– PG
Min/Game —Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 49.0

Kevin Durant

I typically never target a SF against the Spurs as I want to avoid Kawhi Leonard at all costs. However, Kawhi is out tonight so Durant is a great option as the Spurs just don’t have the bodies to throw at him. I’ll give him the slight edge over LeBron as the top SF option, but it’s very close and both are terrific options to build your lineups around.

FD — $10,400— SF
DK — $9,800– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 46.2

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah at Minnesota – 08:00 PM

Utah Minnesota
utahnba Vegas Total 196 minnesotanba Vegas Total 196
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 94.5
Team Pace 93.44 Team Pace 97.56
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 24 22 18 11 7 Opp. Season 8 2 2 3 2
Opp. Last 7 30 7 7 18 8 Opp. Last 7 5 22 15 22 5

Utah

Record: 35-37 — Road: 13-24 — Last 10: 6-4

This is a nice spot to target some Jazz players as Utah checks in with a team total 3.9 points higher than their season average. They’ll also be catching Minnesota on the back end of a back to back follwoing a double overtime game last night. This is the third game in four nights for Utah but they are fighting for a playoff spot so all the minutes of their starters should be secure.

The young Timberwolves have been fun to watch, but have been very poor defensively as they are just 27th in defensive efficiency and 24th in PPG allowed.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors

The Jazz were blown off the court in OKC last game so their starters minutes were down, however that shouldn’t be the case tonight. Minnesota has shown some slippage against PF over the past week, and both Gorgui and Towns played big minutes last night. Favors has flashed some big upside at times recently, and his price on DK really jumps out.

FD — $7,300— PF
DK — $6,900– PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 3o.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.9

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

He hasn’t been great recently, but his price is now sitting at sub $7,000 on both sites. Minnesota has struggled against SF all season long, and if this game stays close then he’ll see upwards of 40 minutes.

FD — $6,500— SF
DK — $6,800– SF
Min/Game —Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 31.6

Shelvin Mack

The matchup is certainly there against a Minnesota team that is dead last in DVP against PG over the past week and just 24th on the season. His price is really juiced right now so he’s not a primary target for me as there is value emerging at PG. However, if you’re looking in that mid-range at PG, I certainly don’t mind the play.

FD — $6,000— PG
DK — $6,100– PG
Min/Game —Season: 17.1 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 14.7

Minnesota

Record: 24-48 — Home: 12-23 — Last 10: 5-5

Minnesota put a big dent in the Wizards’ playoff hopes last night as they pulled off a huge double overtime upset last night. The downside is that they return home to face an elite Utah defense, and are playing a back to back after a double overtime game, as well as three games in four nights.

As evidenced by Minnesota’s low team total, this is a bad spot against an elite defense. I think there’s a chance Minnesota could rest someone here, especially a guy like Ricky Rubio, so maybe some value emerges but for now Minnesota looks like a team to fade. The one tournament target is Karl-Anthony Towns as his athleticism and ability to step out on the perimeter has given Rudy Gobert some problems. In their last meetings, Towns put up 32 points and 12 rebounds.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Charlotte at Milwaukee – 08:30 PM

Charlotte Milwaukee
charlottenba Vegas Total 203 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 97.93 Team Pace 96.4
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Willams Cody Zeller Proj Starter Jerryd Bayless Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 6 25 25 18 22 Opp. Season 11 13 20 22 14
Opp. Last 7 6 2 26 13 21 Opp. Last 7 12 19 5 9 28

Charlotte

Record: 41-31 — Road: 14-20 — Last 10: 7-3

Charlotte’s road woes continued last night as they were blown out in Detroit, and now they’ll face a Milwaukee team that has played well at home this season. The upside is that Milwaukee has been a poor defensive team all season long. Marvin Williams was on my initial list, but as some value has started to emerge at PF as well as Kevin Love getting a big boost, he’s not a guy I’m heavily targeting anymore. .

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

His price is down and Milwaukee has struggled defensively so he’s a solid tournament option. However, he has struggled on the road this season and there are other PG in better spots so he’s a secondary tournament only option for me.

FD — $8,000— PG
DK — $7,900– PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 36.2

Nicolas Batum (DK)

Like Kemba, he’s struggled on the road this season, which has resulted in Charlotte’s road struggles this year. On FD, I’d prefer to just spend the extra $2,000 and get Durant or LeBron so he’s not on my radar there, but he is intriguing on DK, where is SG eligible and offers double double or triple double upside.

FD — $7,700— SF
DK — $7,000– SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.2

Milwaukee

Record: 30-43 — Home: 21-14 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks were a really fun team a few weeks ago, but they’ve hit some road bumps and have been held under 91 points in four of their last six games. Some of that is due to a tough schedule, and Charlotte is a middle of the pack defense. However, I’m a little concerned some of the big minutes have started to catch up to some of the Bucks, and this is a back to back situation, as well as three games in four nights.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo

He’s failed to top 50 FD points in each of his past five games, and I’d much prefer LeBron or Durant for cash games. I’m a little worried he’s starting to wear down, but there’s no denying his upside for tournaments. He brings 60 to 70 fantasy point upside to the table as the point forward, and Charlotte is just 20th in DVP against SF on the season.

FD — $9,900— SF
DK — $9,700– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 34.6

Jabari Parker

Jabari, Khris and Giannis have continued to play big minutes, which keeps them on my radar, but their production has tailed off recently. I’d prefer to spend a little extra and grab Love, but Jabari should be low owned for tournaments and Charlotte has struggled against PF.

FD — $6,100— PF
DK — $5,400– PF
Min/Game —Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.2

Khris Middleton (elite on DK)

Middleton is my favorite Buck tonight, especially on DK, where is very cheap and SG eligible. He’s averaged 37 DK PPG against Charlotte this year and he’s always a solid cash game option as his minutes and shot attempts are secure.

FD — $7,300— SG
DK — $6,500– SG
Min/Game —Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.5

Philadelphia at Portland – 10:00 PM

Philadelphia Portland
philadelphianba Vegas Total 215.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Sprd +15 Vegas Sprd -15
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 115.3
Team Pace 100.29 Team Pace 97.99
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ish Smith Isaiah Canaan Hollis Thompson Jerami Grant Carl Landry Proj Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 23 20 3 21 26 Opp. Season 28 17 29 28 30
Opp. Last 7 20 13 1 26 26 Opp. Last 7 26 11 25 16 6

Philadelphia

Record: 9-63 — Road: 3-33 — Last 10: 1-9

The 76ers check in as 15 point underdogs tonight, and Vegas is expecting Portland to get revenge for their earlier loss in Philadelphia. The 76ers did get Richaun Holmes, Jerami Grant, and Robert Covington back from injury recently, but are expected to be without Nerlens Noel tonight. I don’t love the minute distribution for their PG, SG and SF, but they will continue to be thin on the interior with Noel and Okafor sidelined, which puts Jerami Grant and Carl Landry on the radar.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carl Landry

There are a bunch of value PF options today so I’m not sure where the chalk will land. Landry’s upside is somewhat limited as he’s probably going to only play 22 to 24 minutes. However, he should draw the start tonight with Noel out, and he’s been a guy who’s been averaging right around a fantasy point per minute recently. The Portland interior defense is also nothing to write home about.

FD — $4,500— PF
DK — $4,200– PF
Min/Game —Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 18.8
FP/Game — Season: 14.4

Jerami Grant

Given some of the value emerging at PF, Grant and Landry probably aren’t going to make the cut for me, but both are somewhat intriguing ,and I’d be more interested in Grant on DK where he is SF eligible. The Portland interior defense is not great,and Portland is playing small now with Harkless starting so Landry and Grant are potential tournament options at what should be low ownership.

FD — $5,100— PF
DK — $5,200– SF
Min/Game —Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 20.1

Portland

Record: 37-36 — Home: 22-12 — Last 10: 4-6

Portland checks in with the top team total on the board and is projected to score 10 points above their season average against an awful 76ers team. The issue is the same that we always have to deal with when Philly is on the schedule and that is the risk of a blowout. The Blazers are 15 point favorites so there’s a good chance some of these Portland starters could spend some or most of the 4th quarter on the bench. This is also the third game in four night for Portland so if the game is getting out of hand, they will very likely have a quick trigger on their starters.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard (secondary cash game)

He’s a secondary option on DK, and a secondary cash game option on FD, but I’d consider him an elite tournament option on FD. He could see his minutes reduced here, which is why he’s a GPP option, but if Philly keeps this game without shouting distance, he has monster upside. The 76ers are 28th in DVP against PG on the year, and this is certainly a spot where Lillard could explode if the minutes are there.

FD — $8,700— PG
DK — $9,300– PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 40.3

Maurice Harkless

For a tournament you can pivot to Al-Farouq Aminu, but Harkless is cheaper and has been better recently. He’s stepped into the starting lineup over the past two games, and with the 76ers being very small, he should continue to start. He’s basically minimum price on both sites and is averaging 28 MPG and 24.5 fantasy points over his past two starts. There’s a ton of value out there today so he’s not a must, but if you’re looking to punt a SF spot then he looks like the top value at SF.

FD — $3,800— SF
DK — $3,200– SF
Min/Game —Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 20.0
FP/Game — Season: 11.8

Secondary Plays

Mason Plumlee

I’ve been going to the Plumlee well more recently with Meyers Leonard out as his minutes become more secure. He’ll still draw the start at center and should see his 24 to 27 minutes against a Philly interior that is depleted and is the worst rebounding team in the league. He’s continued to produce very well with Leonard sidelined as he’s averaging just under 30 FD PPG in the games Leonard has missed.

FD — $5,300— C
DK — $5,000– C
Min/Game —Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.9

Ed Davis

Due to all of the value that has been opening up due to resting and injuries, Davis has been flying under the radar. However, with Leonard sidelined, his minutes have become more secure and he’s played at least 20 minutes in four straight. He’s a high fantasy point per minute producer so if we can lock him in for 20 minutes then he’s someone to consider at his price point. Better value could open up depending on the injuries, but he’s exceeded 7x value on DK in three of his last four, and as we know Philly is awful on the interior.

FD — $4,400— PF
DK — $3,900– PF
Min/Game —Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 20.4
FP/Game — Season: 19.2

C. J. McCollum

He’s been volatile recently as he’s flashed 40 fantasy point upside, but also has produced lots of 25 fantasy point outing. The matchup is premier against Philly, but the risk of a blowout knocks him down to a secondary option for me.

FD — $6,700— SG
DK — $6,900– SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 31.4

Boston at Phoenix – 10:00 PM

Boston Phoenix
bostonnba Vegas Total 216 phoenixnba Vegas Total 216
Vegas Sprd -8.5 Vegas Sprd +8.5
Team Proj. 112.3 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 101.12 Team Pace 100.38
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Evan Turner Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj Starter Brandon Knight Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Jon Leuer Alex Len
Opp. Season 29 30 27 16 11 Opp. Season 1 8 22 26 27
Opp. Last 7 22 10 17 24 27 Opp. Season 2 20 9 21 15

Boston

Record: 42-30 — Road: 17-18 — Last 10: 5-5

UPDATE – Avery Bradley is questionable for tonight, and if he were to sit then Marcus Smart would be expected to start in his place. Smart would become yet another strong value on a slate with a ton of value, and I’d also bump Turner and Thomas up a little bit as the Celtics would suddenly be thin at the guard spot.

The Celtics are in a really nice spot tonight as they’re facing a Phoenix team that is one of the worst defensively. The Celtics are one of the few well rested teams, along with OKC, and this game is in Phoenix so there’s a better chance it stays competitive. The Celtics can be a difficult team to peg down but I’ll be sprinkling a few of their players in as some late game hammers tonight.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas

Thomas checks in with the top DVP matchup on the day as the Suns are just 29th against PG on the season. He’ll be in a revenge spot against his former team, and carries a very affordable price point as the top offensive weapon on the team with the second highest team total.

FD — $8,000— PG
DK — $7,700– PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 35.3

Secondary Plays

Amir Johnson

I initially had him as an elite option but with the San Antonio news as well as Kevin Love getting a big bump, I dropped him down. I do still think he’s a great tournament option that could be lost in all of the value today. Amir has been an incredible volatile option all season long, but he’s been more consistent since Jae Crowder was injured. His minutes have shot up as he’s averaging 28.6 MPG over his past five games, and his production has seen similar rise. He’s produced at least 30 FD points in four of his last five games, and his price tag is still sitting in the mid $4,000s. With the inconsistent Boston front court rotation, he’s still a risk, but it is encouraging that his minute boost has directly correlated with the injury to Crowder, as the Celtics can’s use Crowder as a small ball PF.

FD — $4,500— PF
DK — $4,500– PF
Min/Game —Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 19.7

Evan Turner

While Amir has been an indirect beneficiary of the injury to Crowder, Turner has been the direct beneficiary as he’s stepped into the starting lineup. He’s averaging over 30 MPG over his past five games, and has settled in over his past three games. He’s an especially intriguing target on DK as you get a double double bonus upside out of a tough SG position.

FD — $6,100— SF
DK — $5,700– SG
Min/Game —Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.4

Avery Bradley

UPDATE – Avery Bradley is questionable for tonight

Bradley can be a frustrating player to roster as he can be scoring and steal dependent. However, his minutes are very secure as you can pencil him for 35 a night, and he’s shooting the ball well right now. His rebounding has been way up recently, but I wouldn’t count on that continuing necessarily. However, he should find offensive success in this one as the Suns are dead last in DVP against SG on the season.

FD — $5,800— SG
DK — $5,200– SG
Min/Game —Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.7

Phoenix

Record: 20-52 — Home: 13-23 — Last 10: 4-6

The Suns quickly reminded me last night that I put WAY too much stock in a bad team at this point in the year, even against the Kings. Brandon Knight was a late scratch, and is questionable for tonight, while Jon Leuer drew the start for Tyson Chandler but couldn’t stay out of foul trouble. Boston plays fast,but they are an efficient defense. If Brandon Knight were to sit tonight then I understand using Devin Booker, but the matchup does scare me. Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart are very good defenders and Boston has really clamped down on opposing guards. If Knight suits up then I’ll likely stay away from this backcourt, and the other injury to monitor is the status of Tyson Chandler as Boston is vulnerable on the interior.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jon Leuer (if Tyson Chandler out)

He’s only an option if Chandler sits out another game, and he’s likely to be very low owned due to the awful performance last night. However, he gets another quality matchup as Boston is 26th in DVP against PF on the season. If Chandler is out, I don’t mind going back to the well in tournaments as Leuer was very good in his previous two games, and he’ll be owned at a fraction of what he was last night.

FD — $4,600— SF
DK — $4,500– PF
Min/Game —Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 24.4
FP/Game — Season: 17.8

Alex Len (if Tyson Chandler out)

Len is really struggling right now so he’s a large field tournament option only. If Chandler plays I’d knock him completely off the radar, but he’s somewhat interesting if Chandler and Knight sit. He should get more shot attempts if Knight out, and Boston is just 27th in DVP against centers on the year. He’s shooting just 29% over his past five games, which is incredibly worrisome, but that is also a number that should correct itself, especially against a weak interior.

FD — $6,400— PF
DK — $6,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 20.3

Devin Booker

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a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)