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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 26th

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-03-27 02:25:54

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Indiana at Brooklyn – 06:00 PM

Indiana Brooklyn
indiananba Vegas Total 202.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd -4.5 Vegas Sprd +4.5
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 99.0
Team Pace 99.03 Team Pace 96.89
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi Proj Starter Shane Larkin Sergey Karasev Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 22 24 23 20 25 Opp. Season 10 9 6 8 13
Opp. Last 7 1 9 28 12 14 Opp. Last 7 16 1 24 1 10

Indiana

Record: 38-33 — Road: 16-20 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers head on the road to face a poor Brooklyn defense, and are in a nice spot. The problem is that it’s tough to nail them down right now as we’re still awaiting word on whether Paul George will suit up. If he happens to miss this game, then a lot of the Indiana starters become very intriguing, and I’d be especially looking at Monta Ellis, George Hill, Myles Turner, and C. J. Miles. Monta is the one guy I think is in play regardless of George’s status as his minutes are very secure and he plays a SG position that can be tough to fill. If George does play and is not on a minutes restriction then he’s under consideration for the early only slate, but I’m giving the clear edge to guys like LeBron James and Kevin Durant in an All Day Slate.

Elite Plays

TBD

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis

If George happens to sit then I’d consider him a borderline elite option as he’ll pick up a ton of extra usage against a Nets team that is 24th in DVP against SG. If George plays, I still think he’s an option, especially on an early slate, as SG is the weakest position on the day.

FD — $6,500— SG
DK — $6,300– SG
Min/Game —Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 27.6

Brooklyn

Record: 20-51 — Home: 13-24 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets pulled off a stunner as they beat the Cavs in their last game, but now will draw a tough matchup with a motivated Indiana team.

Indiana has been a quality defense this year, and they are in the midst of a battle for playoff positioning so they should be motivated. The Nets are one of the worst offenses in the league so in terms of an All Day slate, no one from Brooklyn makes the cut for me.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Shane Larkin (early only)

I’ll take Matthew Dellavedova over him in an All Day Slate, but if you need some value in an early only slate then Larkin has been inserted into the starting lineup. The matchup isn’t great but he’s still dirt cheap and he put up 28 FD points in 31 minutes in his start last game.

Brook Lopez (early only)

I’m not paying his price in a full slate of games, but if you’re in that early only slate then center is a tough position. The Nets team total is right at their season average and the Pacers have struggled at times against opposing centers.

Toronto at New Orleans – 07:00 PM

Toronto New Orleans
torontonba Vegas Total 201.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd -8.5 Vegas Sprd +8.5
Team Proj. 105.0 Team Proj. 96.5
Team Pace 95.45 Team Pace 99.21
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj Starter Toney Douglas Alonzo Gee Dante Cunningham Alexis Ajinca Omer Asik
Opp. Season 18 26 15 17 29 Opp. Season 3 14 7 5 8
Opp. Last 7 27 17 11 30 11 Opp. Last 7 4 29 19 25 1

Toronto

Record: 48-23 — Road: 20-15 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors are coming off of a loss last night and have now lost two straight. They are still just 2.5 back from Cleveland for the 1 seed so there is still some motivation for them, and the matchup is ideal against a New Orleans team that is depleted and doesn’t play much defense. Kyle Lowry did sit out a game recently, and didn’t shoot the ball well last night so I’d monitor his status, but so far I haven’t seen indication that he won’t play. If Terrence Ross misses another game then the minutes of Powell become pretty secure, but there’s plenty of better value on this slate. Like many of the teams tonight this is a back to back as well as third game in four nights for Toronto.

Elite Plays

DeMar DeRozan

SG is rather thin tonight so DeRozan is my favorite option if I’m spending up at the position tonight. He wasn’t great last night, but he should find plenty of offensive success tonight against the Pelicans, who are 26th in DVP against SG on the season. With Lowry a little banged up, he could also take on a little bit more of the scoring load.

FD — $8,000— SG
DK — $7,800– SG
Min/Game —Season: 36.3 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 35.3

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry

He’s a borderline elite option for me, but I’m slightly favoring guys like Westbrook, Thomas, and Lillard as I don’t love the back to back for Lowry, and his wrist injury slightly concerns me. However, I do think he’s underpriced on DK and the matchup is certainly great tonight, so he’s very much in play if you like the spot.

FD — $8,900— PG
DK — $8,400– PG
Min/Game —Season: 37.3 | Last Five Games: 40.5
FP/Game — Season: 39.7

Jonas Valanciunas

I love his price on DK as a tournament play, but the back to back and third game in four nights does concern me. His minutes have been an issue at times, but if he can grab 25 to 28 minutes then I do like his upside here against a horrific New Orleans interior. He’s coming off one of his best games on the season last night as he put up a monster outing.

FD — $5,600— C
DK — $4,900– C
Min/Game —Season: 25.8 | Last Two Games: 25.5
FP/Game — Season: 26.5

New Orleans

Record: 26-45 — Home: 18-17— Last 10: 3-7

I prefer slates where the Pelicans aren’t playing, because they’ve been a pain recently. They are depleted by injuries, but the rest of their team is SO bad that’s it tough to pinpoint production. The big keys to watch here are the status of Norris Cole and Jrue Holiday, and it seems like they’d be closer to doubtful as there is no real reason for the Pelicans to rush them back. If they are out then Toney Douglas and Tim Frazier should continue to shoulder a heavy load at the guard positions. Luke Babbit has had his moments, but he’s scoring reliant so as some found out on Thursday, if his shot isn’t falling he can throw up a complete dud. I don’t mind him, but I’m leaning towards some of the other value tonight as Toronto is a quality defensive team.

Elite Plays

Alexis Ajinca

There’s going to be a lot of Boban love tonight, but don’t forget about Ajinca if you’re looking to punt Center. The matchup isn’t great but with Ryan Anderson out, he drew the start last game and put up 32 FD points in 36 minutes. Foul trouble can be an issue with him, but if he can avoid foul trouble, then he’s probably going to see more minutes than Boban and has been a solid fantasy producer when he gets minutes.

FD — $3,800— C
DK — $3,500– C

Secondary Plays

Toney Douglas

He’s dependent on the status of Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole, but if both are out then his role becomes secure. He’s topped 25 FD points in four straight games so he’s a solid option, but it’s not a great matchup and PG is always a loaded position. If Cole and Holiday are out again then you can also take a look at Tim Frazier, who played well last game, but he’s not nearly as safe as a guy like Dellavedova.

FD — $5,400— PG
DK — $5,400– PG
Min/Game —Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 29.8

Chicago at Orlando – 07:00 PM

Chicago Orlando
chicagonba Vegas Total 210 orlandonba Vegas Total 210
Vegas Sprd -4 Vegas Sprd +4
Team Proj. 107.0 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 98.64 Team Pace 97.92
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Mario Hezonja Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon
Opp. Season 19 5 16 23 21 Opp. Season 27 15 26 24 24
Opp. Last 7 18 24 8 11 29 Opp. Last 7 14 12 22 20 7

Chicago

Record: 36-35 — Road: 12-22 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bulls have continued to struggle and are in danger of missing the playoffs so every game is a must win for them. Pau Gasol missed the last game, but because of the importance of the game, he is going to “warm up with the intent to play”. He’ll likely remain on a minutes limit but we’ll have to check back closer to tip off for more information. If Gasol does suit up then that knocks down my projections of Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson, and Nikola Mirotic as PG, SF and PF have plenty of options today. If Gasol happens to sit then they all get solid boosts as the matchup against Orlando is very good.

Elite Plays

Jimmy Butler

Butler has struggled recently, but his high minute volume has returned. I’m giving the slight edge to DeRozan,but Butler is right there with him as the top SG option on the board. The Bulls desperately need this win so I’d expect him to continue to see 35+ minutes. The key I’m watching here is the status of Victor Oladipo as he’s a quality defender, and if he were to sit then that’s a big matchup upgrade for Butler.

FD — $8,000— SG
DK — $7,300– SG
Min/Game —Season: 37.3 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 37.1

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol (DK GPP if he plays)

He’s far too expensive on FD as even if he plays he’s probably going to only play the 25 minutes he played the previous two games. However, he’s affordable on DK, and should be low owned. I certainly wouldn’t go there in cash games, but he’s shown he can hit 45 DK points in under 30 minutes, and Orlando is very weak on the interior.

FD — $8,900— C
DK — $7,500– C
Min/Game —Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 25.0
FP/Game — Season: 39.1

Orlando

The Magic are another banged up team, and I’d expect them to continue to be without Vucevic and Ilyasova, while Oladipo seems more like a GTD. If Oladipo were to miss another game then Hezonja would likely draw the start, but I prefer other value options. With Vucevic out, Dewayne Dedmon has been starting but he’s not playing heavy minutes. The minutes of Aaron Gordon do become more secure with Ersan and Vuc out, and the matchup is solid tonight. I don’t mind him, but he’s not quite making the cut for me as I’m either saving with some value PF or spending a little more for guys like Love and Favors.

Elite Plays

Elfrid Payton (if Victor Oladipo out)

This slate is starting to take on a stars and scrubs feel, but if Victor Oladipo is ruled out then I’ll be sure to grab plenty of Elfrid in that mid range. He’s regained his starting spot and has been rock solid over his past two games. The matchup is great against the Bulls and Derrick Rose, who haven’t defended well this season, and he brings 6x to 7x at his low price. If Oladipo does suit up, he still merits consideration but I’d drop him down to a secondary option.

FD — $5,400— PG
DK — $5,400– PG
Min/Game —Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 24.6

Secondary Plays

Evan Fournier

With all of the Orlando’s injuries, Fournier has picked up extra shot attempts and his minutes have been very solid. He’s someone to consider but he has oddly really struggled on back to backs this season, and Orlando is on a back to back, as well as three games in four nights. Also I do worry that if Oladipo sits he’ll be matched up more with Butler.

FD — $5,700— SF
DK — $5,000– SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 23.2

Atlanta at Detroit – 07:30 PM

Atlanta Detroit
atlantanba Vegas Total 203 detroitnba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 99.12 Team Pace 97.62
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 12 7 5 12 10 Opp. Season 5 18 13 13 20
Opp. Last 7 25 6 20 7 18 Opp. Last 7 10 21 21 15 9

Atlanta

Record: 43-30 — Road: 19-17 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hawks enter this one playing their basketball of the season and are starting to get it together as they head toward the playoffs. They are 8-2 over their past ten games and have moved into the 3 seed in the East.

They draw a fairly tough matchup with a Detroit team that has been solid defensively this year and ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas isn’t loving them as their team total is under their season average and the Hawks can be an unpredictable team as they spread around production on a night to night basis. The other thing to note is that this is a back to back and third game in four nights for the Hawks.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague (DK)

Teague is always a tournament only option due to his volatility, but his price on DK is very intriguing. At that price point, he brings 6x to 7x upside to the table, and Reggie Jackson isn’t always locked in defensively. Teague has fared very well against the Pistons this season as he’s averaging 38 DK PPG in 30 MPG.

FD — $6,300— PG
DK — $5,300– PG
Min/Game —Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 27.4

Paul Millsap

It’s always tough to nail down whether to target Millsap or Horford, and Millsap’s volatility does worry me for cash games. His price is down and he does bring 45 to 50 fantasy point upside on a nightly basis so he’s a fine tournament option.

FD — $7,700— PF
DK — $7,600– PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 36.7

Al Horford

I don’t love either spot for Horford or Millsap and when combined with their volatility and three games in four nights, all the Hawks are tournament only options for me. Drummond isn’t a great defender, but the Pistons are a solid 10th in DVP against centers on the season. I still think he’s in play for tournaments as his price is affordable and he’s topped 35 FD points in three of his last four games.

FD — $7,100— C
DK — $6,700– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.1

Detroit

Record: 39-34 — Home: 24-12 — Last 10: 7-3

The Pistons have pulled it together over their past ten games, and now sit in the 8th spot in the East. This is a back to back for them, as well as three games in four nights, but they are only 2 games ahead of Chicago for the final playoff spot, so they need every win.

The Pistons will be motivated but they also have a tough matchup with an Atlanta team that is playing well, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Hawks are now 2nd in Defensive Efficiency, and rank highly in PPG allowed, but have continued to really struggle on the boards.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

Against Atlanta this season, he’s averaging 20 PPG and 16.3 RPG in 35 MPG, and is the one Piston with a plus matchup,as the Hawks have been destroyed on the glass all season long. The one concern here is the back to back and three games in four nights as he’s been better with more rest this season. However, he’s still one of my elite options at center as he did only have to play 29 minutes last night, and the Pistons are in must win mode.

FD — $8,000— C
DK — $7,700– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 39.6

Secondary Plays

Marcus Morris

The Pistons tend to play their starters big minutes, especially Morris and Caldwell-Pope. They aren’t exciting guys to roster, but they do provide minute security and Morris has flashed quality upside recently. He’s not a go to option but if his price fits then he’s topped 30 FD points in five of his last ten games. He’s also had success against Atlanta this year averaging 18.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 2.3 APG in 37 MPG.

FD — $5,500— SF
DK — $5,200– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 24.0

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

He missed a game recently, but has otherwise played at least 37 minutes in each of his past four games so he looks fully healthy and is back to playing his normal high minute volume. He’s never an exciting option, but he provides minute security and SG isn’t overly exciting tonight so he’s someone to consider if you’re in need of a mid-range SG. The Hawks have struggled against SG and he’s been very steady recently.

FD — $5,700— SG
DK — $5,400– SG
Min/Game —Season: 36.8 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 24.3

Cleveland at New York – 07:30 PM

Cleveland New York
clevelandnba Vegas Total 203 newyorknba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd 8.0
Team Proj. 105.5 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 95.33 Team Pace 95.85
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Matthew Dellavedova J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 20 16 8 6 15 Opp. Season 16 10 4 1 1
Opp. Last 7 21 18 13 4 17 Opp. Last 7 17 28 14 5 20

Cleveland

Record: 51-21 — Road: 21-15 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavs are coming off of a very embarrassing loss to the Nets, and will look to right the ship in New York. The big news here is that Kyrie Irving will sit tonight and Matthew Dellavedova will draw the start in his place.

The Knicks were a solid defensive team to start the year, but they’ve slipped as the year has gone on. They play at a slow pace, but they are just playing out the season and with Kyrie Irving out there is extra usage to go around in Cleveland. The one downside here is that this is the 3rd game in four nights for Cleveland, which is something to keep in mind if you’re comparing LeBron and Durant.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

The Cavs were nice enough to rule Kyrie out early so that we aren’t in scramble mode. I don’t love playing any of the Cavs big three when all are healthy, but I’m always ready to pounce when one of them sits. We’re in that spot today and LeBron should pick up extra usage and is playing quality basketball right now. It’s a tough choice between him and Durant, but I’d definitely look to get at least one of them into your lineups.

FD — $9,900— SF
DK — $9,400– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 44.4

Kevin Love

Love is in a terrific spot as his price is depressed and he’ll get extra usage with Kyrie out. He performed well at the beginning of the season with Kyrie sidelined, and is averaging 34 FD PPG in the games that Kyrie has missed. The matchup isn’t ideal as the Knicks have defended PF well, but his price and usage bump are tough to ignore here.

FD — $6,600— PF
DK — $6,700– PF
Min/Game —Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 25.8
FP/Game — Season: 32.1

Matthew Dellavedova

There is going to be plenty of value today as lots of teams are on back to backs and we’re already seeing players ruled out for rest. Delly will draw the start for Kyrie and is basically minimum price around the industry. He may not carry the upside you want for tournaments, but he’s tough to overlook for cash games. Jose Calderon is a poor defender and Delly has averaged 19.8 FD PPG with Kyrie sidelined. That’s the 5x we want for cash games, but for tournaments some of the Spurs big men or other value that may open up, likely carry bigger upside.

FD — $3,500— PG
DK — $3,100– PG
Min/Game —Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 20.6
FP/Game — Season: 17

Secondary Plays

J.R. Smith

J.R. has been very up and recently, and has shown some big downside with four games under 15 fantasy points in his last seven games. However, his price is way down, and he’s averaging almost 5x value on the season at his current price. He’ll be returning to New York and should grab a few extra shots with Kyrie out so he a potential SG punt if you’re looking to load up elsewhere.

FD — $4,300— SG
DK — $4,400– SG
Min/Game —Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 28.2
FP/Game — Season: 20.1

New York

Record: 30-43 — Home: 17-19 — Last 10: 5-5

The Knicks check in as solid underdogs today, and Vegas has them projected at a team total of just 98 points. The Knicks aren’t on a back to back, but this is the their third game in four nights.

The Cavs have had some games where they’ve been very poor defensively recently, but their season long numbers are still very strong, and Delly is an upgrade defensively over Kyrie. You can give Carmelo Anthony or Kristaps Porzingis a look in tournaments, but I’m looking to target other spots at those positions so I’m unlikely to be on any of the Knicks tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)