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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 5th

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-03-07 00:18:11

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Boston at Cleveland – 07:00 PM

Boston Cleveland
bostonnba Vegas Total 210 clevelandnba Vegas Total 210
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 108.8
Team Pace 101.36 Team Pace 95.26
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 20 5 7 1 1 Opp. Season 1 7 18 27 26
Opp. Last 7 21 3 28 2 13 Opp. Last 7 11 6 11 27 21

Boston

Record: 38-25 — Road: 16-15 — Last 10: 7-3

This should be a great game to watch between two of the East’s elite teams, but in terms of fantasy potential it’s not a great spot for Boston. It’s a pace down game and their projected total is 3.3 points lower than their season average.

The Cavaliers have been a top five defense this year so they’re a team I approach with caution. The Celtics have been a top five offense, but outside of Isaiah Thomas, it can be difficult to determine where their production and minutes will come from. Jared Sullinger has been the biggest beneficiary with Olynk out as his minutes have stabilized, and Evan Turner has been solid against Cleveland this year averaging 12.5 PPG, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in 30 MPG. I don’t necessarily mind either but I’m going with DVP here and Thomas is my only real target here. The Cavs have also held Boston to 77 points and 104 points in their two meetings.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas

The elite PG like Wall and Paul draw tough matchups tonight and overall PG is fairly weak tonight. Thomas’ price point is very affordable and he will face off with one of the Cavs’ weakest defenders in Kyrie Irving. PG has been the one spot to attack Cleveland with, but it is worth noting Thomas hasn’t been great against Cleveland this year averaging just 17 PPG, 3.5 rebounds and 4 assists. Those numbers did come on 23% FG, and while some of that may be due to Cleveland’s quality defense, he’s too good of an offensive player so shoot 23% on a consistent basis.

FD — $7,800— PG
DK — $7,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 35.1

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland

Record:43-17 — Home: 26-5 — Last 10:7-3

Unlike the Celtics, the Cavs are getting a pace bump here and check in with the second highest team total on the night, which is 6.3 points higher than their season average.

The Celtics are a great team in terms of defensive efficiency and the two matchups between these teams haven’t been very high scoring (89-77 Cavs win, and most recently 104-103 Boston win). However, they aren’t great in terms of PPG allowed and have struggled against SF, PF and C this season. With Kevin Love expected to return from injury, tonight I’ll pass on J.R Smith and Kyrie Irving here as Boston has been very good against guards this year.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

At under $10,000 on both sites, LeBron is the top cash game option at SF. This is a back to back for Cleveland, but he only had to play 30 minutes last night. I do think guys like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have the ability to outproduce him for a tournament, but LeBron provides the highest floor for cash games. He’s averaging 40 FD PPG against Boston this year, which isn’t great, but Vegas likes the Cavs offense tonight so I’d expect him to perform better tonight.

FD — $9,800— SF
DK — $9,800– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 44.4

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

It can be tough to target the Cleveland big three when everyone is healthy as they tend to cap each other’s upside. However, Love was able to rest last night and should be ready to roll tonight. The Celtics have really struggled against both PF and C this year so I’ll target him ahead of Kyrie Irving tonight if you’re looking for a second Cavs option.

FD — $7,000— PF
DK — $7,000– PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 32.7

Detroit at New York – 07:00 PM

Detroit New York
detroitnba Vegas Total 200 newyorknba Vegas Total 200
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 97.0
Team Pace 97.57 Team Pace 95.96
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 18 16 11 6 18 Opp. Season 10 11 3 13 8
Opp. Last 7 28 24 18 9 24 Opp. Last 7 8 21 25 1 8

Detroit

Record: 31-30 — Road: 13-19 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pistons are struggling right now, but are still battling for a playoff birth so they have plenty to play for. Meanwhile, the Knicks look like they could be ready to mail it in so I like this spot for the Pistons.

The Knicks have been a solid defense all season long but they are just 2-8 over their last ten games, and their defense has really fallen off recently, which is reflected in their recent DVP. Also, the Pistons are thin on the wings due to injuries and have played their starters big minuets all season. Their starters minutes haven’t been up recently, but they’ve been involved in two blowouts and also have faced three very good defenses in Toronto, San Antonio and Cleveland.

Elite Plays

Reggie Jackson

Reggie hasn’t been great lately, but he’s just $6,600 and facing the defense of Jose Calderon. The Knicks are 16th in DVP against PG on the season, and just 28th over the week. I’m not overly enthused about the prospects for John Wall and Chris Paul tonight so Jackson is a nice mid-range option and has averaged 33 FD PPG against the Knicks this season.

FD — $6,600— PG
DK — $6,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 29.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.5

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris

I like this spot for the Pistons and will be sprinkling them throughout my lineups. The problem is that guys like Tobias and Drummond are SF and C, which have some solid options tonight. Tobias has been rock solid with Detroit producing between 26.8 and 33 FD points in five of his last six games, including some tough matchups.

FD — $5,800— SF
DK — $6,200– SF
Min/Game —Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 26.7

Andre Drummond (elite GPP)

I really love his upside so I’d consider him an elite tournament option, but I’m leaning more towards other centers for cash games. It will be very interesting to see ownership percentages at center tonight as it’s a loaded position. He always brings that 20/20 upside to the table and the Knicks have been susceptible on the interior recently.

FD — $8,500— C
DK — $7,700– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 40.2

New York

Record: 25-38 — Home: 15-18 — Last 10: 2-8

The Knicks continue to really struggle and are just 2-8 over their last ten games. They are 4.5 point home underdogs and have a team total 1.9 points lower than their season average.

The Pistons aren’t an elite defensive but they are solid and rank in the top 1/3 or so in fantasy points allowed. Meanwhile, the Knicks have been a tough team to target outside of a guy like Carmelo Anthony. Kristaps Porzingis is a guy you can consider for tournaments but his minutes have been very scary recently.

Center is loaded tonight so I can’t go there but Robin Lopez has owned Detroit this year averaging 40 FD PPG in two meetings (18.5 PPG, 11.5 RPG and 3 blocks in 35.8 MPG).

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo draws a tough matchup and I prefer Lebron, George, and Kawhi tonight. However, he’s been the one consistent Knick recently and is churning out 40+ fantasy point performances on a consistent basis right now.

FD — $8,900— SF
DK — $8,300– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 37.9

Utah at New Orleans – 07:00 PM

Utah New Orleans
utahnba Vegas Total 198 neworleansnba Vegas Total 198
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 93.34 Team Pace 98.77
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Norris Cole Eric Gordon Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Kendrick Perkins
Opp. Season 15 25 15 14 29 Opp. Season 9 4 2 2 3
Opp. Last 7 9 30 22 8 28 Opp. Last 7 13 26 4 17 10

Utah

Record: 28-33 — Road: 9-21 — Last 10: 2-8

The Jazz are struggling right now and are just 2-8 over their last ten games. They draw a solid matchup with a poor New Orleans defense but Vegas also expects their struggles to continue as they underdogs with a team total under 100.

The Jazz are interesting tonight as they draw some great DVP matchups, but they’re playing bad basketball and New Orleans has been solid at home. Rodney Hood draws a great DVP matchup and I don’t mind him but his usage has taken a hit recently and I’m leaning towards Zach LaVine, Jamal Crawford and J. J. Redick at similar price points.

Elite Plays

Rudy Gobert

Center is stacked tonight so I’m struggling with how much to trust Gobert, but the matchup is just too good and his price is so cheap. He’s been volatile but he’s flashed 40 fantasy point upside in two of his last four games, and the Pelicans are trotting out Kendrick Perkins as their starting center.

FD — $6,700— C
DK — $6,500– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.1

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward (elite DK)

With Derrick Favors returning the Jazz have become a tougher team to target and guys like Hayward and Hood have taken a hit. However, that has resulted in a big price drop for Hayward, especially on DK. The Pelicans actually feature some solid SF defenders, but his price point looks to low on DK. The Jazz are in desperate need of a win tonight so Hayward is playing big minutes right now.

FD — $7,400— SF
DK — $6,600– SF
Min/Game —Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.9

Derrick Favors

He draws a tough individual matchup with Anthony Davis, but this is a bad Pelicans defense as a whole. He’s been up and down so I can’t trust him for cash games, but he does have 40 fantasy point upside and put up 22 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists against New Orleans in his only meeting with them this year.

FD — $7,500— PF
DK — $7,100– PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 32.6

Shelvin Mack (elite GPP)

Mack has been an incredibly frustrating option recently as he’s completely torpedoed lineups in two of the last four games, but hit 6x value in the other two. At his bargain price point, he’s a great GPP option given his 6x upside and the fact he opens up so much salary room. The matchup is definitely there tonight against New Orleans so I don’t mind him in cash games, but his floor is very low and he did manage to bust against a bad Brooklyn defense.

FD — $3,500— PG
DK — $4,100– PG
Min/Game —Season: 12.0 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 10.1

New Orleans

Record: 23-37 — Home: 16-14 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pelicans are playing better recently and got Eric Gordon back from injury a few games ago. However, they draw one of the toughest matchups on the board tonight as they’ll face the plodding Utah Jazz.

The Jazz have been a team to avoid all season long so the Pelicans are GPP only options at best. Eric Gordon has returned with a bang, while Norris Cole is providing solid value at PG. However, given the tough matchups, I’m looking elsewhere tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis

He’s definitely not someone to trust in cash games and he’s only a guy I’d look to if you’re running multiple tournament entries. However, he should be very low owned and he’s shown the ability to perform in some tough matchups with San Antonio. He tends to get favorable treatment from the score keeper at home and while he was held in check in the last meeting, he put up 36 points and 11 rebounds against Utah earlier this year (Favors played but Gobert did not in that one).

FD — $9,800— PF
DK — $9,600– PF
Min/Game —Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 37.3
FP/Game — Season: 43.9

Indiana at Washington – 07:00 PM

Indiana Washington
indiananba Vegas Total 207 washingtonnba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 105.0
Team Pace 99.26 Team Pace 100.31
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Solomon Hill Ian Mahinmi Proj Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 16 22 26 7 13 Opp. Season 11 14 5 12 12
Opp. Last 7 19 11 16 4 17 Opp. Last 7 20 9 24 5 9

Indiana

Record: 32-30 — Road: 14-19 — Last 10: 4-6

This is a big game between two teams that are battling for the playoffs in the East. Indiana has struggled on the road, but they’ll face a Washington defense that has struggled at times this season.

The Wizards have been a solid team to target this year, especially with opposing wings. The Pacers started Solomon Hill over Myles Turner last game as Turner’s been struggling recently. I’ll be avoiding the Pacers bigs tonight as they are sharing minutes and most of their usage comes from Hill, Monta and George. I don’t mind George Hill, but he tends to lack upside and I’m focusing in on George and Monta.

Elite Plays

Paul George

Just like last night, there are some really nice options at the top of the SF list as LeBron, Kawhi and George are all in great spots. George can be a volatile option so I think LeBron makes for the safer cash game option, but George carries similar upside at a lower price point so I do like him for tournaments quite a bit. The Wizards have been crushed by SG and SF all season long and George is averaging 30.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 5.5 APG against the Wizards this year in two meetings.

FD — $8,500— SF
DK — $8,100– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 39.1

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis

SG has several options in that $5,000 to $6,000 range so Monta’s not a must. However, he’s playing big minutes and is in a nice spot against the Wizards’ poor wing defense.

FD — $6,300— SG
DK — $5,800– SG
Min/Game —Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 27.1

Washington

Record: 30-31 — Home: 16-16 — Last 10: 7-3

The Wizards are battling for a playoff berth and last night showed that they have a ways to go as they were blown off the floor in Cleveland. Vegas does seem to like them here though as they have a team total of 105.5 points, which is 2.8 points higher than their season average.

This is a weird spot as the Pacers’ defensive numbers all look very good so this is a spot where I really don’t want to attack. However, Vegas has the Wizards projected to score more than their season average. The other factor is that outside of John Wall, there is no one we can pinpoint for consistent 35+ minutes. Randy Whitman is all over the map as he played Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat huge minutes against the 76ers (with Nene out) but then has limited their minutes again recently. I love the talent of Bradley Beal but he can’t stay healthy and his minutes really limit his upside.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall

I just don’t trust any of the other Wizards so Wall is the only guy I trust tonight. I haven’t been going out of my way to roster PGs against Indiana so I’m not overly excited about this matchup, but Washington is in need of a win so should see tons of minutes here. He threw up a dud in the first meeting with INdiana, but responded with 28 points, 7 rebounds and 8 assists in their last meeting.

FD — $9,800— PG
DK — $9,300– PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 41.9

Brooklyn at Minnesota – 08:00 PM

Brooklyn Minnesota
brooklynnba Vegas Total 213 minnesotanba Vegas Total 213
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 109.3
Team Pace 96.93 Team Pace 97.27
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 21 23 21 9 7 Opp. Season 27 20 20 18 23
Opp. Last 7 12 28 30 15 2 Opp. Last 7 22 19 13 13 14

Brooklyn

Record: 18-44 — Road: 7-22 — Last 10: 5-5

On paper this is an ugly matchup between two bad teams, but for DFS purposes this is a game to watch. It checks in with the second highest total on the night, and the Nets have a team total 7.8 points higher than their season average.

Minnesota has really struggled defensively this year and they are one of the worst teams in terms of PPG allowed and defensive efficiency. In particular, the Nets PG, SG and SF draw quality DVP matchups, The one thing to note here is that Brooklyn is coming off of a overtime game in the high-altitude of Denver last night so I do worry about fatigue a little bit here. The Nets PG and SG are both in nice spots but they are very weak in terms of NBA talent at both spots and both positions can be a bit of a time share. I’d still lean toward Donald Sloan over Shane Larkin if you’re going that route though.

Elite Plays

Thaddeus Young

In terms of DVP this isn’t a great spot, but I like Brooklyn’s team total and Thad has picked up some extra usage with Joe Johnson out of town. He was just average last night but PF is weak tonight and Thad brings solid consistency to the table at an affordable price point.

FD — $7,100— PF
DK — $7,000– PF
Min/Game —Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.8

Secondary Plays

Bojan Bogdanovic

We saw the top SF all explode last night, and that could certainly happen again as most of the top SF are in quality spots again. However, if you’re looking for a punt option to pair with a high end SF then Bojan is the top punt. He’s stepped into the starting lineup and is playing 30 minutes a night. He’s flashed 30 fantasy point upside and Minnesota has really struggled against SF this season.

FD — $4,000— SF
DK — $4,400– SG
Min/Game —Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 15

Brook Lopez (elite DK)

On one hand, the Nets team total of 105 points just screams Lopez big game. However, he’s been struggling a bit lately and fatigue could be an issue for a big man after last night’s OT game. Minnesota has been solid against centers but he put up 20 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists against them earlier this year. I think he’s in play in all formats at his DK price where you also have the ability to play two centers, but he’s a secondary option for me on FD.

FD — $8,500— C
DK — $7,300– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 36

Minnesota

Record: 19-43 — Home: 10-21 — Last 10: 3-7

Minnesota is still struggling but at least they’ve become more exciting as they’re turned some of their youngsters loose. They check in with a team total of 109 points, which is 8.3 points higher than their season average, and are a great team to target.

The Nets have been terrible defensively and every Minnesota player draws a quality matchup. I don’t mind Andrew Wiggins but I think Zach LaVine provides similar output at a lower price point.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP)

There are at least five to six great options at center tonight and Towns is certainly one of them. He can be foul prone and his minutes have frustratingly not been there in two of his last three games. For that reason, I prefer him in GPPs as opposed to cash games, as I think guys like DeAndre Jordan are very safe. However, Towns brings immense upside against the weak Brooklyn defense. He put up 24 points and 10 rebounds in only 28 minutes against them earlier this year and has 50 fantasy point upside if the minutes are there.

FD — $8,900— C
DK — $8,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 34.9

Zach LaVine

LaVine has been a go to option if I need an affordable SG recently, and he hasn’t disappointed. His minutes have sky rocketed and he’s produced at least 28 FD points in four straight games. He may not play 39 minutes again on a back to back but even with minutes in the lower 30s he should have success against this Nets poor defense.

FD — $5,300— SG
DK — $5,700– SG
Min/Game —Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 21.6

Gorgui Dieng

He hasn’t flashed a ton of upside recently, but he continues to be a very safe cash game option. His minutes have fallen off a bit from the 40 we saw a few weeks ago, but he’s still playing 30 minutes a night, and is one of my favorite cash game options at the position tonight.

FD — $6,300— PF
DK — $6,600– PF
Min/Game —Season: 26.6 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 23.3

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio

I really like this matchup for Rubio but out of all of MInnesota’s starters the back to back for him concerns me the most, as Minnesota has always monitored his minutes closely. On the positive side, he only played 23 minutes last night so if he can see 30 minutes tonight then I like his potential. He had 15 assists in only 28 minutes against Brooklyn this year and I love his assist upside given Minnesota’s team total. Overall, his minute uncertainty leaves him as a secondary option, but one I do like for tournaments.

FD — $6,700— PG
DK — $6,300– PG
Min/Game —Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 30.0

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)