NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 18th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Los Angeles Clippers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Clippers | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.5 |  | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Sindarius Thornwell | Austin Rivers | Wesley Johnson | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 25 | 24 | 12 | 25 | DvP | 10 | 16 | 27 | 15 | 26 | |
| DRPM | -0.72 | N/A | 1.15 | 0.77 | 2.29 | DRPM | -0.18 | -0.86 | -0.16 | 0.15 | 1.38 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers came out swinging at the start of the season despite losing their all-star point guard Chris Paul to the Rockets. That’s changed though as the Clippers are now 5-9 and are 1-9 in their last ten games. Injuries have hurt this team which is great for DFS value, but a lot of these options are starting to get priced up. Charlotte is ranked 9th in pace and 14th in defensive efficiency. This team total is not one of the highest on the slate but is at 213 which is respectable for this matchup.
With Patrick Beverley still doubtful, I fully expect the Clipper situation to be the like the past week or so. The main guy that we have been loading up on is Lou Williams. He has been an absolute stud and the under priced value option of the week that everyone has been playing. The problem now is that he is overpriced throughout the industry on the second half of a back to back. I’m not a fan of taking jump shooters that come off the bench that are point dependent in these situations. The peripherals have been better and he’s still a fine play, but I will likely be fading. If I get Clippers exposure it will be through Blake Griffin who still has been crushing with all the injuries. Griffin is a decent price around the industry and while he is not my favorite Power Forward he is in play here. For the most part, I am going to stay away from the Clippers. A lot of the other options are not appealing to me and Blake would be the main play that I would target.
Notable Injuries Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallanari (out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.2 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.5 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sindarius Thornwell | $3,800 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 0.63 | 13.4% | 53.2% | 12 | -0.72 |
| Austin Rivers | $5,300 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 23.3 | 0.4 | 32.6 | 1.8 | 0.72 | 18.4% | 50.7% | 25 | N/A |
| Wesley Johnson | $3,800 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 14.7 | -3.2 | 20.6 | 1.8 | 0.71 | 11.2% | 51.7% | 24 | 1.15 |
| Blake Griffin | $8,600 | $8,900 | $16,200 | 40.2 | -2.2 | 35.2 | 2.8 | 1.14 | 27.5% | 55.4% | 12 | 0.77 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,200 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 29.7 | -8.0 | 31.7 | -0.2 | 0.94 | 10.4% | 60.8% | 25 | 2.29 |
| Lou Williams | $6,800 | $6,800 | $10,900 | 27.0 | 16.3 | 26.5 | 11.1 | 1.02 | 25.8% | 59.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Blake Griffin
Secondary Plays – Lou Williams and DeAnde Jordan
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are starting to get healthy but are still only 5-9 to start the year. This team might hit a groove soon once they get Batum feeling comfortable with their top free agent acquisition Dwight Howard. The Hornets draw a matchup against a poor defensive team ranked 21st out of 30 in the league. They also have a 109-point team total which is currently the fourth highest on the slate.
Dwight Howard is only $6700 on DraftKings and probably my favorite play in this game. I would expect him to have to play a ton in a matchup against DeAndre Jordan. Howard has also historically owned Jordan throughout his career averaging 20.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. This isn’t a spot where I would be worried about the Clippers going small and running Dwight off the court. I love this matchup for him and at this price I will be getting a lot of exposure to him. Kemba Walker plays better at home and if Beverley sits the Clippers should certainly struggle to stop him. Although he is priced up and coming off a big 64 fantasy point game, I think getting exposure to him make sense on this slate. Batum is the last guy that I really want to discuss here. He is coming off an injury and I think if you find him underpriced around the industry you can take advantage of that price tag. If he is already priced up he’s a fine play but not one that we should be loading up on.
Notable Injuries None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,900 | $7,700 | $14,000 | 36.2 | 1.7 | 34.7 | 1.8 | 1.04 | 26.0% | 57.8% | 10 | -0.18 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,500 | $6,300 | $14,300 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 32.1 | 0.0 | 1.03 | 22.5% | 50.4% | 16 | -0.86 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,200 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.0 | 10.6 | 20.1 | 9.2 | 0.90 | 13.4% | 64.2% | 27 | -0.16 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 25.2 | 1.0 | 0.72 | 12.6% | 59.4% | 15 | 0.15 |
| Dwight Howard | $7,500 | $6,800 | $13,500 | 31.9 | -7.2 | 29.8 | -2.8 | 1.07 | 18.4% | 53.8% | 26 | 1.38 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,600 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 28.5 | -4.7 | 29.6 | -3.3 | 0.96 | 21.5% | 57.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 20.0 | -2.5 | 26.2 | -3.7 | 0.76 | 18.2% | 50.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dwight Howard
Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker
Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Jonas Jerebko | Derrick Favors | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Terrence Ross | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 26 | 17 | 11 | 25 | 16 | DvP | 2 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | |
| DRPM | -0.26 | -0.26 | 0.48 | -0.64 | 1.96 | DRPM | -0.36 | -0.32 | 1.84 | 0.13 | 1.95 | |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz are banged up right now, but this is a game against the sixth fastest paced team in the league. With injuries to Gobert and Rubio we need to take advantage of this opportunity. The Jazz are still without Rudy Gobert which means the big man value is still one that I will be getting exposure to. Derrick Favors has been priced up but in a high paced game against the Magic, I want to get exposure to him in my cash games and tournaments. The Magic are ranked in the bottom three in rebounding differential this season, making this a dream spot for Favors. The guard play has thrived in the absence of Gobert. Donovan Mitchell has been the biggest beneficiary providing even more shot attempts and smashing his value often. He is starting to get priced up a little too much for my liking where his shots must fall in order for him to be in play for me. He was an option that was smashing value at the cheap price even when he wouldn’t have a great shooting day. With Rubio out though, he will require even more ball handling duties and is a good play. Rodney Hood got benched for Mitchell and is now seeing a ton of second team usage. This has been good for him and with Rubio out this gives him an even bigger bump. He is another option we should be trying to get exposure to on this slate. Options like Joe Ingles and many of the other Jazz are in play. The core three that I talked about are my favorite plays but be on the lookout for news closer to lineup lock with this team. Players have been ruled in and out all over on Utah and it will be important to check for that news.
Notable Injuries Rudy Gobert, Ricky Rubio, Joe Johnson (Out) and Thabo Sefolosha (questionable)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 98.5 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.0 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $7,000 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 28.7 | -5.5 | 30.9 | -1.2 | 0.93 | 22.9% | 51.6% | 26 | -0.26 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $6,400 | $6,700 | $12,300 | 24.7 | 10.7 | 27.3 | 4.9 | 0.91 | 25.5% | 48.2% | 17 | -0.26 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 24.1 | -4.9 | 29.9 | 0.1 | 0.80 | 16.0% | 57.7% | 11 | 0.48 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $3,200 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 0.74 | 12.5% | 60.8% | 25 | -0.64 |
| Derrick Favors | $6,500 | $6,200 | $13,300 | 23.2 | 12.5 | 27.6 | 4.8 | 0.84 | 16.4% | 54.0% | 16 | 1.96 |
| Rodney Hood | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 22.7 | 5.7 | 27.8 | 0.1 | 0.82 | 24.2% | 54.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood
Secondary Plays – Joe Ingles
Orlando Magic
The Magic have been impressive to start the year and were a fantasy viable team that I was loading up on with “(player-popup #elfrid-payton)Elfrid Payton”:/players/elfrid-payton-18602’s injury. With that injury, there were massive performances from a lot of their players but now with Payton back it feels that they are just too priced up. The Magic draw a matchup against Utah which is not the greatest and the tempo should be slower than they normally play. The problem is without Gobert and Rubio this is not the same team. Normally, I fade teams against the Jazz unless the price and talent of the player is too good. We still don’t have a team total here which makes me believe that Vegas thinks this total should be higher than normal and they are waiting a little bit. If that’s the case, we can take advantage of some Magic players around the industry.
For the most part the Magic starters are almost all in play here except for Terrence Ross. Elfrid Payton is an upside point guard with a wide range of outcomes. He is only a deep tournament play for me and I don’t love this spot for him. Aaron Gordon really thrives in high paced sloppy games and a matchup against Utah is not that type of game environment. Nikola Vucevic draws a good matchup where he will see Favors defense all game. Vucevic is a good play especially on DraftKings at $6800. The last starter I would be considering is Evan Fournier. The Jazz struggle against Small Forwards the most and I think he is a good play at the position today.
Notable Injuries DJ Augustine (questionable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 108.7 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $6,600 | $6,200 | $12,900 | 24.3 | -7.3 | 24.7 | 3.3 | 0.99 | 20.6% | 49.7% | 2 | -0.36 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,300 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 31.9 | -5.2 | 32.8 | -1.6 | 0.97 | 21.3% | 63.2% | 10 | -0.32 |
| Terrence Ross | $4,500 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 19.2 | -0.7 | 27.3 | -0.1 | 0.70 | 15.5% | 46.5% | 9 | 1.84 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,100 | $6,800 | $12,300 | 33.7 | -9.8 | 31.7 | -0.1 | 1.06 | 18.5% | 64.6% | 7 | 0.13 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $7,800 | $6,800 | $12,100 | 34.3 | -8.8 | 29.9 | -2.6 | 1.15 | 21.7% | 58.4% | 4 | 1.95 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 22.8 | 1.7 | 25.4 | 1.3 | 0.90 | 21.9% | 60.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic
Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier
Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 231.0 |  | Vegas Total | 231.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -8.5 | Vegas Spread | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 119.8 | Implied Team Total | 111.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Dario Saric | Robert Covington | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 30 | 22 | 11 | 27 | DvP | 4 | 8 | 21 | 27 | 24 | |
| DRPM | 1.41 | -0.61 | -1.30 | 1.48 | 3.03 | DRPM | 0.35 | -1.05 | 0.28 | 2.60 | 2.33 | |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are always in a high total game but today they get to go against a Sixers team that is ranked 4th in the league in pace this season. The last time out these two tangled, the Warriors won by 21 points. They are coming off one of their worst offensive games in a while, only scoring 88 points, and I expect them to lock in here and come away with a win. However, it should stay competitive.
Steph Curry is an option I like who I think has upside here in this spot. He is still only $9100 and has upside despite facing a Sixers team that is ranked 6th best in the league against opposing point guards – these are the type of games Curry thrives in. He typically shoots worse on the road, but his price is too appealing for me to pass up. The Sixers are ranked dead last against shooting guards this season and this makes Klay Thompson at $6900 an interesting play here. I thought Klay could bust out for a big game last time the two played but he only went for 30.25 DK points. This matchup is too good to pass up on again making Klay a great way to get exposure to this Warriors total.
Kevin Durant is currently at a price tag that I think is always in play even if he draws a tough matchup against the 7th best team at defending small forwards. Draymond Green is someone I like getting exposure to in tournaments because of his upside at $7600. He is a triple double machine that fills the stat sheet. They should need Green to cover Embiid a ton and I would expect him to get up for this game. Other than that, I won’t be gambling with fringe options like Iguodola or Livingston.
Notable Injuries None
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 119.6 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.8 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.4 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.2 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.5 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,000 | $9,100 | $17,100 | 44.3 | 0.2 | 32.3 | -2.4 | 1.37 | 27.4% | 65.6% | 9 | 1.41 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,700 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 31.9 | -0.2 | 32.9 | -1.5 | 0.97 | 20.8% | 63.3% | 30 | -0.61 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,300 | $9,600 | $19,000 | 46.4 | -2.2 | 34.3 | -5.1 | 1.35 | 24.4% | 65.9% | 22 | -1.30 |
| Draymond Green | $7,900 | $7,600 | $14,000 | 33.7 | 3.7 | 29.9 | 0.2 | 1.13 | 15.8% | 64.5% | 11 | 1.48 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,200 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 12.5 | -0.2 | 13.9 | -0.5 | 0.90 | 11.6% | 54.4% | 27 | 3.03 |
| Andre Iguodala | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 17.2 | -0.5 | 25.1 | -3.3 | 0.69 | 10.8% | 49.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green
Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant
Philadelphia 76ers
The matchup we have been waiting for with a massive 230-point total again. The Sixers are only 9-point underdogs here but are the fourth fastest paced team in the league taking on the sixth fastest paced team. There are going to be a lot of fantasy points scored here and I agree with Vegas in thinking that this will be the highest scoring game on the slate. The Sixers will have their hands full here though because the Warriors lead the league in points per game with 119.1. They also have the highest total on the slate. I was worried about the blowout last game out but with the Sixers at home I am less worried.
This is a great pace for Simmons and I would expect him to have a lot of opportunities and for only $8700 he is someone that I have a lot of interest in for tournaments. Simmons struggled last game only putting up 33.25 fantasy points. I don’t expect that again, but I do think this is not the easiest matchup for him. He is one of those “matchup proof” type of players but he’s not my favorite option.
Joel Embiid is one center that I love on this slate because of the matchup, his usage, price, pace and recent increase in minutes. The Warriors are one of the worst teams against opposing centers because they have guys like Zaza, West and McGee forced to try and cover them. Embiid is seeing a team high true usage of 26.5% and averaging 1.5 fantasy points per minute! The Warriors just won’t have an option to stop Embiid – the problem is that he costs $10,000. That is expensive and if your build leads you to him I think he’s a fine play but I won’t be going out of my way to roster him.
Redick, McConnell and Saric are some cheap ways to get exposure to this game. If I had to rank them it would be Saric, Redick and McConnell for me. I think this is a good route to take if you’re having trouble spending up for Sixers exposure. Robert Covington who is $6300 and crushes in pace up games. These are the type of games where we see Covington hit his ceiling and this could certainly be the game here. He might be my favorite play on the Sixers today based on point per dollar value, but if you think this game stays close I would assume either Simmons or Embiid would have to have a good game.
Notable Injuries Jerryd Bayless, Markelle Fultz, Justin Anderson and Nik Stauskas
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $10,200 | $9,300 | $17,600 | 44.9 | 1.1 | 34.7 | 0.5 | 1.29 | 23.9% | 53.0% | 4 | 0.35 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,300 | $4,900 | $11,200 | 25.3 | 2.6 | 33.0 | 0.5 | 0.77 | 18.0% | 54.4% | 8 | -1.05 |
| Dario Saric | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 26.7 | 4.7 | 0.71 | 15.7% | 49.1% | 21 | 0.28 |
| Robert Covington | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,000 | 30.9 | 1.6 | 31.1 | 0.6 | 0.99 | 16.3% | 67.6% | 27 | 2.60 |
| Joel Embiid | $11,000 | $10,000 | $19,500 | 46.0 | 10.4 | 29.0 | 2.8 | 1.59 | 27.7% | 59.7% | 24 | 2.33 |
| T.J. McConnell | $4,900 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 20.6 | -1.9 | 23.4 | -0.2 | 0.88 | 15.7% | 54.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Robert Covington and JJ Redick
Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and TJ McConnell
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.5 | Vegas Spread | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Al Horford | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Luke Babbitt | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 18 | 27 | 15 | 24 | 23 | DvP | 3 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 7 | |
| DRPM | -2.83 | 0.42 | -0.42 | -0.53 | 0.83 | DRPM | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.48 | 2.99 | |
Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtic have won 14 games in a row and are coming off a huge win at home against the Warriors. They draw an easy opponent in the Atlanta Hawks and I expect the Celgics to handle them easily.
If you don’t know it by now Dennis Schroder is not a good defender. The Hawks are ranked in the bottom five against point guards and Kyrie Irving is going to be one of my favorite plays on this slate. Kyrie took the mask off last game against Golden State because it was bothering him, and I would expect him to do the same tonight. Marcus Smart didn’t have the greatest game, but I think this is the perfect bounce back spot for him. He is currently popping in my projections and I think trusting that and the matchup is a smart idea, rather than trying to figure out what happened last game. Golden State is a good defensive team he had a bad day, it happens.
Jaylen Brown was impressive in his last game against Golden State. His close friend passed away and he said he was playing for him. I don’t know if there is a chance he misses because of that but it is something to take note of. Brown is starting to get priced up and I wouldn’t be loading up on him in this spot. I think he is fine cash game exposure but in tournaments I think the guy I prefer is Jayson Tatum. The Hawks struggle against the frontcourt, and I think targeting this rookie against bad teams will be a good idea throughout the year. I could see Tatum struggle at times against tougher opponents like Golden State because he is a rookie but in easier matchups if he gets going early, I could see some of the vets feed him more to give him some confidence. The last guy to talk about is Al Horford who goes against a Hawks team that can’t rebound and gets a little revenge against his former team.
Notable Injuries None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.7 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,200 | $8,500 | $15,300 | 36.8 | -18.3 | 30.9 | -15.5 | 1.19 | 29.0% | 54.0% | 18 | -2.83 |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,400 | $6,500 | $12,100 | 26.8 | 3.1 | 32.0 | 1.2 | 0.84 | 18.4% | 53.6% | 27 | 0.42 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,400 | $6,100 | $12,900 | 26.2 | -2.4 | 30.1 | 1.2 | 0.87 | 15.9% | 63.4% | 15 | -0.42 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,700 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 22.9 | -0.8 | 22.7 | 0.9 | 1.01 | 22.0% | 58.3% | 24 | -0.53 |
| Al Horford | $7,300 | $7,400 | $13,900 | 34.0 | -0.4 | 31.9 | 0.0 | 1.07 | 17.7% | 67.9% | 23 | 0.83 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,500 | $5,600 | $11,400 | 26.3 | -2.9 | 30.6 | 3.1 | 0.86 | 19.8% | 40.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $3,800 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 22.4 | -0.6 | 24.5 | 1.5 | 0.91 | 20.2% | 46.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving
Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown, Macus Smart and Jayson Tatum (tournaments)
Atlanta Hawks
The Celtics are the best defensive team in the league this year and with the Hawks getting healthier I am going to have limited interest in Atlanta. The one player that I think you can play is Dennis Schroder who is leading the league in touches on the season. That alone is a strong reason to play him. Many people think that Kyrie is a poor defender, but he has improved this year and the Celtics are not a team that I want to be targeting with offenses. Just to put it in perspective, the Warriors only scored 88 points the other night!! I will say it one more time the Warriors who lead the league in points per game only put up 88 points!! Pretty crazy to think about, and with a low implied team total and the Celtics getting healthier this is not a team that I want a ton of exposure to. This is a good spot to just cross Atlanta off and move on – if I played anyone it would be Schroder who is only $6600 as that price is very appealing and the best way to get Hawks exposure.
Notable Injuries Luke Babbit and Mike Muscala (questionable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.2 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.3 (10 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -6.0 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.5 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.8 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,300 | $6,600 | $10,400 | 33.9 | -10.5 | 32.0 | -2.3 | 1.06 | 29.1% | 52.5% | 3 | 0.20 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,500 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 29.2 | 0.3 | 28.8 | -3.1 | 1.01 | 21.2% | 51.4% | 3 | 0.50 |
| Taurean Prince | $6,000 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 27.2 | 5.9 | 31.6 | 1.0 | 0.86 | 17.4% | 52.1% | 17 | 0.67 |
| Luke Babbitt | $3,300 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 13.2 | 1.4 | 20.0 | 4.3 | 0.66 | 12.9% | 65.4% | 3 | 0.48 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $6,000 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 25.2 | 6.8 | 24.0 | -2.7 | 1.05 | 14.6% | 66.5% | 7 | 2.99 |
| John Collins | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 22.8 | -7.3 | 21.1 | 1.1 | 1.08 | 18.9% | 56.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,100 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 17.3 | -3.7 | 23.0 | -5.0 | 0.75 | 13.6% | 32.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder
Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.5 | Vegas Spread | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Mario Chalmers | Dillon Brooks | James Ennis | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 10 | DvP | 7 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 22 | |
| DRPM | 0.77 | 1.38 | N/A | 0.68 | 1.65 | DRPM | -0.73 | 0.73 | 0.54 | -0.56 | 2.60 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets offense put up 90 points in one half yesterday which shows you how explosive this offense can be with Chris Paul. Now it was against the Suns but regardless that kind of scoring outburst is still quite impressive. The Rockets are ranked 112.2 in points per game this year in a matchup against the Grizzles who have a defensive efficiency rating in the top 10. This game should be slower than normal for Houston going up against the 29th ranked team in pace this season. I typically like to target Houston players, but the return of Chris Paul and the pace has me slightly worried. The Rockets have an implied team total of 110.7 which is ranked 3rd highest on the slate.
Chris Paul is back, and we still don’t have a strong enough sample on what to do with Harden and Chris Paul. I think that Harden is fine, but I just prefer paying for other options on this slate. These teams have played three games already and Harden is only averaging 46.5 DraftKings points. Eric Gordon clearly took a hit with Paul returning and at that price I will continue to fade. Paul is the guy I really have interest in if I play anyone. A $7500 price is cheap for him and I think he makes an interesting tournament play. I don’t love the pace of this game, but I think it’s interesting.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute was out the other night and if that is the case again we could see some interesting value emerge. If he doesn’t play, P.J. Tucker, Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza all could see some extra minutes. If he does play, that could be a hit on their playing time and likely make them options that I don’t consider. My favorite option on the Rockets side would be Clint Capela here for $6700. I liked him last game for $6300 where he put up 38 DraftKings points, and I like going back to him. My one worry about Capela is that I like guys like Howard and Vucevic in the same price range. The more I think about it though Capela is in the third highest total on the slate and a safe option that we should be considering.
Notable Injuries Luc Richard mbah a moute (questionable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 111.2 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.7 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $7,600 | $7,500 | $13,600 | 36.6 | 33.1 | 1.11 | 15.2% | 22.2% | 14 | 0.77 | ||
| James Harden | $11,800 | $11,100 | $20,900 | 53.2 | 2.9 | 36.3 | 0.5 | 1.47 | 34.8% | 61.1% | 9 | 1.38 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,500 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 25.2 | 3.9 | 35.7 | -0.1 | 0.71 | 12.9% | 53.9% | 3 | N/A |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,800 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 21.4 | -0.7 | 31.2 | -0.9 | 0.69 | 13.1% | 58.3% | 10 | 0.68 |
| Clint Capela | $7,100 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 35.2 | 3.4 | 26.1 | 5.5 | 1.35 | 15.7% | 70.8% | 10 | 1.65 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,200 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 18.8 | -1.5 | 27.9 | -4.9 | 0.67 | 9.6% | 52.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Chris Paul and Clint Capela
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzles are seven point home underdogs here with a 103.5 team total against the Houston Rockets. The Grizzles are well known as one of the slowest paced teams in the league, ranked 29th this season. They draw a matchup against the Rockets who are surprisingly only ranked middle of the pack this season. These two opponents have already seen each other three times this season so we have a little bit of a sample of what we should expect here. The only difference is that Chris Paul is back with the Rockets.
Mike Conley is out which means we will see nice usage bumps for Mario Chalmers and Tyreke Evans. In these matchups they are great plays that I want to get exposure to. They are both elite plays for me on this slate and Chalmers might be my favorite value play overall.
Marc Gasol is another option that I really like playing against the Rockets and he is $8200. He flashed his 70 fantasy point upside last game and showed with no Conley he will have to carry the load. Gasol is another center that we should be giving strong consideration to tonight on this slate. He feels overpriced for being Marc Gasol but with Conley out we need to give him a significant boost and should be loading up on him in this spot. When it comes to Memphis I will keep it simple – exploit the Conley value through the three Grizzles I talked about and then move on.
Notable Injuries Mike Conley (out)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 102.0 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Chalmers | $3,900 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 18.5 | -0.7 | 23.3 | 1.2 | 0.79 | 18.1% | 46.6% | 7 | -0.73 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,600 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 19.8 | 4.6 | 29.0 | -2.3 | 0.68 | 13.6% | 54.2% | 20 | 0.73 |
| James Ennis | $3,400 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 17.4 | -7.2 | 29.1 | -5.3 | 0.60 | 9.7% | 66.2% | 19 | 0.54 |
| JaMychal Green | $3,900 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 0.62 | 13.0% | 77.6% | 4 | -0.56 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,300 | $8,200 | $14,600 | 40.3 | 4.6 | 34.3 | -0.1 | 1.17 | 24.8% | 55.7% | 22 | 2.60 |
| Tyreke Evans | $7,400 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 32.0 | 9.5 | 28.1 | 3.4 | 1.14 | 25.4% | 62.2% | N/A | N/A |