NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 15th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-04-15 13:20:29

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics – 1:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		201.5					Vegas Total		201.5
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		98.8					Implied Team Total		102.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.1
Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson		Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	2	5	12	1	2		DvP	3	11	6	11	28
DRPM Rat.	6	2	3	2	1		DRPM Rat.	8	28	23	5	6

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

None

The Bucks are going to have their hands full with a Celtics team that finished 1st in defensive efficiency and among the top half of the league in DvP for every position. While the Celtics aren’t going to have Marcus Smart or Kyrie Irving available, this is still a solid defensive unit. There’s a reason why the Bucks have the lowest implied team total on today’s slate.

The biggest question from the Bucks side is do you pay for Giannis Antetokounmpo on a slate that has LeBron James, James Harden and Russell Westbrook? I’m expecting Giannis to go lower owned than he should be on a four-game slate because of the other studs on this slate. Giannis has had success against these Celtics so far this season. In four meetings, Giannis’ DraftKings scores are: 55.25, 56.75, 60 and 62.75. I’ll admit it’s going to be hard to prioritize Giannis before Playoff LeBron, but history has shown Giannis has upside here and I think he makes for an elite tournament play.

When Giannis is healthy, I generally don’t have much interest in Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe. That isn’t to say they are bad plays, but so much of the usage funnels to Giannis that it’s hard to prioritize them over others on the slate. This is also such an elite defense with fantastic wing defense that I’m viewing both as secondary plays. I’m also off the bigs of John Henson and Tyler Zeller against a Celtics defense that ranked 2nd in DvP against centers this season.

I don’t mind Jabari Parker in this spot and it wouldn’t surprise me if he saw more minutes than we’re expecting. It feels like the Bucks were so careful with his minutes throughout the regular season in order to save him for the playoffs. He did play 30 minutes against the Celtics in their last game. Even if he does see 30 minutes he’s not a priority play because of the matchup, but he’s the main player I’m looking to on the Bucks’ bench.

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 106.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -7.8 (8 of 8)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Kyrie Irving (Out), Marcus Smart (Out)

The Celtics and Bucks split their season series 2-2, but Kyrie Irving played in the first three. The last game on April 3rd may be a closer representation of what we’ll see on Sunday since both Kyrie and Marcus Smart were out that game (Terry Rozier also missed it with Kadeem Allen drawing the start).

Coach Brad Stevens hinted that while all 11 players are healthy via this tweet, he plans to use an 8 to 9 man rotation depending on foul trouble via this tweet. If he has a 9 man rotation, it may include Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes, Greg Monroe, Shane Larkin and Semi Ojeleye, with Abdel Nader and Guerschon Yabusele on the outside looking in. The condensed rotation isn’t surprising, but it’s good that we’re getting some confirmation to help us for DFS purposes.

It sounds like Al Horford will be tasked with defending Giannis, while Aron Baynes, Marcus Morris and Semi Ojeleye will also get some turns. It’ll be a tough matchup for all the Celtics starters as the Bucks rank in the top half of the league in DvP for every position except center, where they were second to last. I would expect Aron Baynes and Greg Monroe to split the center minutes. Factoring in the shortened rotation and the elite matchup, both are firmly in-play, with Monroe profiling as the stronger tournament play given his ability to be more of a factor on the offensive end and also factoring in the #revenge narrative.

On paper, Al Horford and Jaylen Brown have easier matchups than Terry Rozier and Jayson Tatum. All four are still fine options on this slate and any one of them could step up on any given night. I’d be lying if I said I knew who would be the guy in Game 1, so what I did was run a CourtIQ run limiting it to a 9 man rotation to see what kind of data popped up. You can find it here.

A few interesting tidbits: Terry Rozier leads the team with a 26.1% usage rate and averages 1.03 fantasy points per minute, while Jayson Tatum is second with a 25.1% usage rate and 1 fantasy point per minute. Maybe a surprising nugget, but Greg Monroe is third with a 24% usage rate but leads the team with 1.16 fantasy points per minute. Marcus Morris and Jaylen Brown follow, both of whom average less than a fantasy point per minute, then Al Horford.

Greg Monroe is probably my favorite play on the Bucks. I don’t see a lot of elite options on the Celtics but more secondary pieces. I do think Al Horford (especially at $6,000 on DraftKings) and Terry Rozier profile as my favorite plays. Tatum, Brown and Morris are interesting but it’s hard for me to envision any of them taking over the game and become must-haves on this slate.

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (2 of 8)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Greg Monroe (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 3:30 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		103.0					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.4
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner		Projected Starters	George Hill	Rodney Hood	LeBron James	Jeff Green	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	25	22	29	17	19		DvP	6	6	9	13	24
DRPM Rat.	22	29	21	13	15		DRPM Rat.	19	1	21	5	18

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

None

The Pacers are embracing the role of the underdog and are looking to prove they deserve to be in the playoffs. Bojan Bogdanovic will start on Lebron per this tweet but it’ll be interesting to see how much time they give him in this defensive assignment. I went back to the Pacers’ game logs to see how many minutes Bojan played in the Pacers’ four games this season against the Cavs thinking Lance Stephenson would’ve see the lion’s share of minutes, but I was somewhat surprised. In the four games against the Cavs, Bojan played 26, 29, 32 and 35 minutes. Meanwhile, Lance Stephenson saw 22, 29, 17 and 22 minutes in those games. I still like Stephenson as a tournament play in case they call on him to play a greater role in this series, but I don’t think we should just dismiss Bogdanovic either as a sleeper.

Because of his price tag and because of everyone else I’d rather prioritize on this slate, I have a hard time recommending Victor Oladipo. He can certainly put up a 50 burger in this spot, but I’d rather get my Pacers exposure through cheaper pieces like Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young or Bogdanovic. My favorite play on the Pacers is Collison who had success in three of their four meetings.

The Pacers really seemed to move away from Myles Turner as the season came to an end, instead giving more time to Domantas Sabonis. I’m a bit worried about Turner’s role and am planning to take a wait-and-see approach before taking a shot on him here. While he’s cheap across the industry, I’d almost rather play his backup Sabonis as a GPP dart throw or Greg Monroe on the Celtics, who is in a similar price range on FanDuel.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.6 (4 of 8)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Darren Collison

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic, Victor Oladipo, Lance Stephenson (GPP), Myles Turner (GPP), Thaddeus Young

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Rodney Hood (Will Play), Kyle Korver (Will Play)

Rodney Hood and Kyle Korver are expected to play in Game 1, but I don’t have much interest in either. It’s hard not to prioritize LeBron James and Kevin Love on this slate. LeBron is my top play on this slate factoring in the matchup and the fact he’s going to have to carry this Cavaliers team. I can see some merit to trying to play some of George Hill, Rodney Hood, Kyle Korver or Jordan Clarkson because we will need to save somewhere and because they are so cheap, but I’m seeing all of them as more secondary pieces. The same goes with Jeff Green if he starts.

Kevin Love has a fantastic matchup against a Pacers team that struggled against bigs all season. I don’t even mind Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance as GPP punts because of how bad the Pacers are against opposing centers. Their minutes are inconsistent so it’s anyone’s guess how much time they see in Game 1, but the matchup is good enough that we have to at least give them consideration. Also, congratulations on the new baby, Tristan. Your gift is in the mail.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 (3 of 8)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – Jeff Green, George Hill, Rodney Hood, Larry Nance (GPP)

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder – 6:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		206.0					Vegas Total		206.0
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		101.3					Implied Team Total		104.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.8
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Corey Brewer	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	7	21	10	10	3		DvP	11	1	4	2	10
DRPM Rat.	5	20	9	25	17		DRPM Rat.	2	6	6	10	1

Utah Jazz

Notable Injuries

None

At one point the Thunder boasted an elite defense, but the loss of Andre Roberson dramatically changed their defensive dynamics. This is still a solid defensive unit as the Thunder finished 10th in defensive efficiency, but Roberson’s loss left a gaping hole. The addition of Corey Brewer was a big help, but with Brewer still dealing with a sprained knee, it will be interesting to see how this Thunder team plays this postseason.

The Jazz relied heavily on their starters down the stretch and I see no reason why they would abandon that plan in a playoff series. Donovan Mitchell has the best matchup on paper and is fairly priced. I actually really like the price tag on Ricky Rubio, who saw his minutes get scaled back significantly during the final week as he was battling a hamstring injury. He’s had four days to rest it since their last game and if he gets his normal 30+ minutes, there’s upside at his price.

I love Joe Ingles as a player, but I don’t love Joe Ingles against Paul George defense. I’d much rather take a shot on Derrick Favors in an easier matchup against Carmelo or even just punt with Jae Crowder, who is going to get plenty of minutes in the second unit and it a cheap punt to consider on this slate.

I can see the merit of using Rudy Gobert in tournaments because he does have upside, but this is not an easy matchup against Steven Adams. The Thunder were 3rd in DvP against opposing centers so I’d rather find my center elsewhere than in this game.

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (5 of 8)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell, Ricky Rubio

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder, Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert

Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

Alex Abrines (Out), Corey Brewer (Questionable)

It will be interesting to see how the Thunder handle this Utah Jazz defense that barely finished 2nd to the Celtics in defensive efficiency (they got edged out by a tenth of a point). The Thunder will be without Alex Abrines because of a concussion, and Corey Brewer is officially questionable but sounds like he’s planning to play.

The Jazz ranked among the top 11 in DvP for every position and also were tied for 25th in pace, so this sets up to be a tough matchup for the Thunder. The Thunder did win the season series 3-1. Russell Westbrook finished with triple-doubles in two of their four meetings and is about as matchup proof as it gets. He gets the easiest defensive matchup against Ricky Rubio, and is right up there in terms of studs I want to pay up for.

The price on Paul George is tempting but the Jazz were 2nd in DvP against small forwards this season. Still, George was a combined 30-for-61 in shot attempts in their four meetings. George also had 15 steals in those four games and was incredible on the defensive end. If you’re fading Westbrook, having exposure to George makes some sense so you’re not fading this offense completely.

Carmelo Anthony exploded for 26 real-life points in the first meeting but was held to 18 or fewer points in the subsequent three meetings, so the Jazz did a good job adjusting. Carmelo is too scoring dependent for my liking and is not someone I’m actively targeting.

I only have mild interest in Steven Adams because of his reasonable price tag but I’m not one to go out of my way and play centers against Rudy Gobert. That’s not to say Rudy Gobert can’t be beat. We saw Andre Drummond drop 80+ fantasy points against him earlier this season so Gobert isn’t invincible, but there are other centers on this slate I have more interest in.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 107.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (6 of 8)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Paul George, Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams, Carmelo Anthony

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets – 9:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		216.5					Vegas Total		216.5
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		102.8					Implied Team Total		113.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.1					Pace Projection +/-		-1.3
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Andrew Wiggins	Jimmy Butler	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	13	8	7	18		DvP	19	20	2	4	11
DRPM Rat.	3	16	10	8	4		DRPM Rat.	18	28	1	15	24

Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

None

Karl-Anthony Towns has had some monster games against the Rockets, and I’m excited to see how he does in this series and how the Rockets adjust to defending him. Below are his DraftKings points against the Rockets over their last eight games against each other in the regular season. The Rockets have slowed him down a bit over their past two meetings but given this history, it’s clear he likes playing against the Rockets. I consider him an elite option and I don’t even mind some KAT/Capela stacks if you’re rolling out multiple teams on sites that allow you that flexibility.

After playing just 23 minutes in consecutive games since returning from his knee injury, Jimmy Butler was asked to play an incredible 42 minutes in the Timberwolves’ elimination game against the Nuggets. Butler responded by shooting 10-for-21 and finishing with 47.75 DraftKings points. I love Jimmy Buckets in tournaments if we see him get 40+ minutes per game this series. This may be the lowest we see his price all series if Thibs runs him into the ground.

Jeff Teague is going to have his hands full against Chris Paul. The Rockets were a top-10 defensive team against point guards and I’m not a fan of using point guards against Paul, so Teague is not someone I’m actively trying to target. The same can be said of Andrew Wiggins, whose usage declines by 2 percentage points when Butler is on the court. We do know Wiggins is going to see a boatload of minutes, but he’s too scoring dependent for my liking.

I have some concerns about Taj Gibson, who is playing through a neck injury. He managed to play through it and make some key defensive stops in the elimination game against the Nuggets, but beat writer Jerry Zgoda wrote this about Gibson in this tweet:

Taj said after practice he’s banged up, but…“I”ll survive, been a tough road to get to this point. I’m happy to get in. I can turn my neck to the right now a little bit. At the end of the day, it’s all about will and playing through it and being there for my teammates.”

It’s a little scary that he’s still having trouble turning his neck. I mean, sometimes I sleep wrong and mess up my neck, and I can’t even drive to work, so I know how Taj feels.

The Timberwolves rely so much on their starting unit that the second unit barely gets any meaningful minutes. I’m expecting that to continue being the case in the postseason, so I don’t have interest in Jamal Crawford or Nemanja Bjelica unless there’s an injury.

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 109.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.8 (7 of 8)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Ryan Anderson (Doubtful), Luc Mbah a Moute (Out)

Luc Mbah a Moute is out with a shoulder injury and while Ryan Anderson will dress per this report, it sounds like he’s doubtful to play. If Anderson does miss the game, the Rockets are going to have to rely more on P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green and Joe Johnson. Eric Gordon also said here he’s healthy and not having any issues with his ankle injury.

This should be a spot where Chris Paul and Clint Capela both see heavy usage. Both have matchups that aren’t scary on paper and they will be needed to carry the offense if we see Jimmy Butler slow down James Harden (although I’m not sure anyone can slow down James Harden). In their last two matchups with the Timberwolves, Capela finished with 46.2 and 42.4 FanDuel points, while Paul finished with 38 and 41.1. I like Capela a lot in this game, and Paul is the logical pivot if you decide to fade Westbrook.

What should we do with James Harden? It wouldn’t shock me if he saw Jimmy Butler defense in this game, but shooting guard is especially weak on FanDuel that it makes sense to chase his floor despite a tougher matchup. Paying up for Westbrook or Harden is going to be a big decision you’ll need to make and they are neck-in-neck for me. I do think it’s site dependent because of how you’re forced to roster two on FanDuel, and I think he makes more sense on FanDuel than on other sites where you have positional flexibility.

I don’t have much interest in the secondary pieces of Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green or Joe Johnson, but I see some merit to punting with Ariza if he’s going to get 35+ minutes. I do think Eric Gordon is an interesting GPP play but he’s missed time the final week of the season with an ankle injury, so just monitor that situation.

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (1 of 8)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Clint Capela, James Harden (especially on FD), Chris Paul

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon (GPP)