NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 1st - Page Three
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Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors – 8:30 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.0 |  | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 14.0 | Vegas Spread | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.5 | Implied Team Total | 114.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Troy Daniels | Josh Jackson | Dragan Bender | Marquese Chriss | Projected Starters | Quinn Cook | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | JaVale McGee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 22 | 12 | 24 | 10 | DvP | 29 | 30 | 24 | 30 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 25 | 30 | 25 | 27 | 15 | |
Phoenix Suns
Notable Injuries
Devin Booker (Out), Jared Dudley (Doubtful), Alex Len (Out), Elfrid Payton (Questionable), T.J. Warren (Out)
The Suns nearly pulled off an upset on the short-handed Houston Rockets but Gerald Green was too much in the end, hitting a game-winning 3-pointer in true Gerald Green fashion. The Suns will be without Devin Booker, T.J. Warren and Alex Len, which is a huge boost to Troy Daniels, Marquese Chriss and Josh Jackson. All three are fantastic plays here.
Elfrid Payton is questionable but I’d expect Tyler Ulis to continue getting heavy minutes at the point guard position. He’s coming off an amazing 44 DraftKings point performance against Houston and I like him in this spot regardless of Payton’s status. For now I’m going to list him as a secondary play but he could warrant elite status if Payton gets ruled out and we hear Ulis will once again start.
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (19 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 ( of 20)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $5,200 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 29.3 | -11.6 | 28.7 | -5.6 | 1.02 | 21.7% | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| Troy Daniels | $4,400 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 20.6 | 11.6 | 0.60 | 15.5% | 4 | 22 | 9 |
| Josh Jackson | $7,600 | $7,400 | $13,100 | 22.6 | 12.1 | 24.9 | 10.9 | 0.91 | 21.8% | 10 | 12 | 23 |
| Dragan Bender | $3,900 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 14.6 | -0.3 | 24.8 | 3.4 | 0.59 | 10.9% | 12 | 24 | 2 |
| Marquese Chriss | $5,400 | $5,400 | $11,300 | 18.9 | 10.2 | 20.7 | 5.8 | 0.91 | 15.2% | 16 | 10 | 21 |
| Alan Williams | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 17.5 | 0.0 | 0.79 | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Ulis | $5,400 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 16.9 | 8.9 | 22.3 | 4.3 | 0.76 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marquese Chriss, Troy Daniels, Josh Jackson
Secondary Plays – Tyler Ulis (would consider elite if we hear Elfrid Payton is ruled out and Ulis is starting again)
Golden State Warriors
Notable Injuries
Omri Casspi (Questionable), Stephen Curry (Out), Andre Iguodala (Doubtful), Patrick McCaw (Out)
The Warriors continue to drop like flies, this time losing Patrick McCaw to a freak accident where he was undercut by Vince Carter and temporarily lost sensation in his leg. Given this is the backend of a back-to-back, I’m a little concerned about how the Warriors treat this game. They have no incentive to play hard for playoff positioning as things are set for them, but at the same time, they just got Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant back from injury so I also think there’s some merit for them playing hard and getting into as close of a solid rhythm heading into the playoffs. Durant (31), Thompson (32) and Green (34) all played decent minutes on Saturday and I’m thinking they get something similar on Sunday unless this game blows out early. Vegas is predicting the Warriors to win by 14, so there’s merit to treating the Warriors as secondary options on this slate despite the elite matchup against Phoenix because they could easily scale back their starter minutes and spread out the playing time to their bench.
With Klay Thompson back, I think the Quinn Cook DFS era is over until his price drops back down. I get this is an elite matchup against a Suns team he torched for 44.5 DraftKings points not too long ago, but these circumstances are a bit different. Klay Thompson is in a similar price range as Cook and I’d rather play Klay who is the far superior player.
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 113.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.5 (1 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.6 ( of 20)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.7 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.8 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Cook | $6,000 | $6,900 | $13,000 | 14.2 | 18.3 | 19.2 | 15.4 | 0.74 | 16.9% | 27 | 29 | 25 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,700 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 30.2 | 34.3 | 0.88 | 20.3% | 29 | 30 | 30 | ||
| Kevin Durant | $10,800 | $11,300 | $19,700 | 47.1 | -28.5 | 34.4 | -17.3 | 1.37 | 26.6% | 24 | 24 | 25 |
| Draymond Green | $9,000 | $8,900 | $16,200 | 36.9 | -19.6 | 32.8 | -12.8 | 1.13 | 17.0% | 30 | 30 | 27 |
| JaVale McGee | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1.22 | 16.1% | 22 | 28 | 15 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,700 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 19.0 | 2.2 | 25.4 | -1.6 | 0.75 | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nick Young | $3,800 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 16.9 | 14.8 | 0.66 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Klay Thompson
Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green
Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers – 9:00 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.0 |  | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 15.0 | Vegas Spread | -15.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 95.5 | Implied Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kobi Simmons | Dillon Brooks | Jarell Martin | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 8 | 15 | 14 | 5 | DvP | 19 | 23 | 16 | 13 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 13 | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 18 | 24 | 29 | 10 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries
Marshon Brooks (Questionable), Tyreke Evans (Out), Marc Gasol (Questionable), Andrew Harrison (Out), Chandler Parsons (Out)
I’m going to continue staying on brand and will just tell you don’t play any Grizzlies. While Tyreke Evans and Andrew Harrison are out, that doesn’t make me any more interested in this team. Even the fact that Marc Gasol is questionable won’t bait me into playing a Jarell Martin or JaMychal Green. You can go ahead and chase these points if you’d like but I find life to be easier when I’m not playing any Grizzlies.
I will point out that Marshon Brooks has now dropped 30+ DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s doing it in 21 minutes or less. He’s questionable with an injury so there’s some risk if we don’t know his status before lock, but he’s the one player who is interesting despite the fact he’s been out of the league for the past four years.
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 98.9 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.5 (20 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.4 ( of 20)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobi Simmons | $3,700 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 10.8 | -5.0 | 18.0 | -1.1 | 0.60 | 15.0% | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Dillon Brooks | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 17.7 | -2.3 | 28.5 | -4.1 | 0.62 | 15.6% | 12 | 8 | 24 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,300 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 16.9 | 6.1 | 22.5 | 8.3 | 0.75 | 14.7% | 13 | 15 | 19 |
| JaMychal Green | $4,700 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 24.6 | 0.5 | 28.2 | 3.0 | 0.87 | 15.8% | 17 | 14 | 4 |
| Marc Gasol | $7,000 | $7,100 | $13,300 | 37.3 | -3.9 | 33.5 | -5.2 | 1.11 | 23.4% | 4 | 5 | 1 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Marshon Brooks (GPP if he plays), JaMychal Green (if Marc Gasol is out)
Portland Trail Blazers
Notable Injuries
Ed Davis (Out), Maurice Harkless (Out)
Vegas is favoring the Blazers heavily here, as they should, but that makes me concered about playing any of the Blazers’ high priced starters (Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic). If Marc Gasol is playing, that easily takes me off Nurkic. I’m going to list Lillard and McCollum as fine secondary plays, mainly for GPPs in the rare event this game does stay close. The Blazers have a fairly comfortable lead on the 3rd seed.
I will mention that Ed Davis is out with an injury for the near future, which should give more time to Zach Collins. Collins is dirt cheap and just dropped 25 DraftKings points on the Clippers in just 21 minutes. If he sees an expanded role with Davis out and if this game blows out, we could get an extended look at Collins, making him an interesting GPP dart throw.
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 ( of 20)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,800 | $9,300 | $17,400 | 43.6 | 5.4 | 36.6 | 2.3 | 1.19 | 29.3% | 23 | 19 | 26 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,800 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 33.5 | 3.8 | 36.1 | 0.4 | 0.93 | 24.9% | 17 | 23 | 18 |
| Evan Turner | $4,600 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 16.3 | -2.9 | 25.4 | -1.1 | 0.64 | 15.1% | 7 | 16 | 24 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $6,200 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 24.3 | 8.4 | 30.1 | 2.7 | 0.81 | 13.3% | 22 | 13 | 29 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $7,900 | $6,800 | $12,800 | 31.7 | 10.4 | 26.2 | 2.1 | 1.21 | 22.6% | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Ed Davis | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 17.5 | -7.0 | 19.0 | -0.4 | 0.92 | 10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Zach Collins (GPP)
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers – 9:30 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Justin Jackson | Skal Labissiere | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Josh Hart | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Kuzma | Julius Randle | Brook Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 19 | 27 | 29 | 12 | DvP | 18 | 15 | 13 | 22 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 8 | 28 | 14 | 23 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 23 | |
Sacramento Kings
Notable Injuries
Zach Randolph (Questionable), Garrett Temple (Questionable)
I’m going to treat the Kings similar to how I treat the Grizzlies in that I will generally just avoid them. They randomly sit veterans and lineups sometimes don’t get revealed until after tip-off. Given this game is the late night hammer, there’s a ton of risk if you play any of the Kings. Zach Randolph was away from the team on Saturday for a personal matter but is expected to rejoin them on Sunday. Does that mean he rejoins the team to hang out on the bench, or is he actually going to rejoin them and play? Your guess is as good as mine, and given these uncertainties, I’m unlikely to take shots at their forwards or centers like Willie Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere and Kosta Koufos.
Buddy Hield is the only player I remotely have interest in given his upside, and it’s strictly a GPP interest.
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 99.4 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 20)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 20)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $4,800 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 22.4 | -4.9 | 27.3 | -1.2 | 0.82 | 21.8% | 22 | 24 | 20 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $4,300 | $5,300 | $11,400 | 21.8 | -1.9 | 27.7 | 2.1 | 0.79 | 18.7% | 7 | 19 | 8 |
| Justin Jackson | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 21.3 | 5.2 | 0.59 | 13.2% | 20 | 27 | 28 |
| Skal Labissiere | $5,500 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 18.7 | 5.5 | 20.6 | 7.7 | 0.91 | 18.3% | 26 | 29 | 14 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $6,500 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 28.4 | -2.9 | 27.8 | -1.0 | 1.02 | 19.2% | 19 | 12 | 23 |
| Buddy Hield | $6,200 | $6,500 | $12,700 | 22.8 | 6.6 | 24.9 | 3.6 | 0.92 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kosta Koufos | $3,900 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 19.3 | 6.2 | 19.6 | 2.6 | 0.99 | 14.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Mason | $4,000 | $4,300 | 17.0 | 6.9 | 19.2 | 3.5 | 0.88 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield (GPP)
Los Angeles Lakers
Notable Injuries
Lonzo Ball (Doubtful), Brandon Ingram (Out)
With Lonzo Ball doubtful and Brandon Ingram out, Josh Hart is probably going to stick in the starting lineup and see a ton of minutes. He posted a double-double over 35 minutes on Friday, while Kyle Kuzma rejoined the starting lineup as well and scored 27 real-life points over an astonishing 46 minutes in their overtime game.
Brook Lopez has been playing well lately and now gets an elite matchup against a weak Kings front court. I prefer using Lopez over a guy like Julius Randle so I can take the savings but still get exposure to the Lakers against the Kings.
I also like this spot for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He was ejected last game after 16 minutes, which explains his low fantasy output.
While I overall like the Lakers, the sites did a good job of pricing them all up. This makes me prefer focusing on Josh Hart and using the other pieces as one-offs or as part of a game stack.
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 20)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 20)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.7 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | $4,900 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 14.9 | 21.5 | 0.69 | 11.6% | 14 | 18 | 29 | ||
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,000 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 27.4 | -0.7 | 34.0 | 5.7 | 0.81 | 15.5% | 27 | 15 | 25 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $7,000 | $7,600 | $13,300 | 27.8 | 7.4 | 30.8 | 8.4 | 0.90 | 19.7% | 19 | 13 | 24 |
| Julius Randle | $8,500 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 30.4 | 5.6 | 26.7 | 8.0 | 1.14 | 21.4% | 18 | 22 | 25 |
| Brook Lopez | $6,800 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 24.6 | 11.7 | 23.5 | 11.0 | 1.04 | 21.0% | 28 | 26 | 23 |