NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 1st

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:44:45

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets – 1:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		218.5					Vegas Total		218.5
			Vegas Spread		-2.5					Vegas Spread		2.5
			Implied Team Total		110.5					Implied Team Total		108.0
			Pace Projection +/-		1.0					Pace Projection +/-		2.3
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Richaun Holmes		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	17	16	26	16	16		DvP	13	18	19	11	13
DRPM Rat.	20	13	12	13	9		DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	25	11

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Justin Anderson (Questionable), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out), Joel Embiid (Out)

Hello Grinders. We have a massive 13 game schedule on this Easter Sunday. There’s a lot of injury news and playoff implications we need to be aware of. Because of how large this slate is, I’m going to be as concise as possible so we can try to identify what spots to target. At this point in the season it’s not so much about what matchups are best, but rather who is benefiting from players being injured or resting, and what teams are still playing hard for playoff positioning. As such, a lot of my focus has now become tracking news and rotations, which I’ll try to lay out in detail. Let’s dive in.

This first game is not on some sites so its importance depends on where you play. Joel Embiid is out due to his recent surgery, which led to Amir Johnson drawing the start last game. Johnson only played 17 minutes and then gave way to Richaun Holmes (15.75 DraftKings points over 24 minutes) and Ersan Ilyasova (49.5 DraftKings points over 30 minutes in a revenge game). The takeaway from me is that while Johnson may start, it’s really Ilyasova and Holmes we want to target.

Ben Simmons posted a triple-double last game out and dropped 54 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes. He should continue being the focal point of this offense. Using CourtIQ, we see that Dario Saric gets the biggest usage bump and averages 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Embiid off the court, while Ben Simmons leads the team with an average of 1.21 fantasy points per minute. Saric laid a huge poopy dud last game, finishing with just 18 DraftKings points over 26 minutes. I’m willing to go back to the well with Saric.

J.J. Redick and Robert Covington also see usage increases with Embiid off but are secondary targets for me. They definitely warrant some exposure if you’re playing multiple teams but they fall behind the pecking order of importance to me behind Saric, Simmons and maybe even Ilyasova.

Marco Belinelli continues to produce off the bench and is a fine punt play here. Markelle Fultz also saw an encouraging 19 minutes last game as his playing time is slowing rising. He’s more of a long-shot GPP play since he possesses upside but isn’t getting heavy run. This is a game the 76ers absolutely need to win as they fight for the #3 seed in the East, so I expect them to keep playing hard.

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.9 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 ( of 20)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ersan Ilyasova, Dario Saric, Ben Simmons

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington, Markelle Fultz (GPP), Richaun Holmes, J.J. Redick

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Dwayne Bacon (Questionable), Jeremy Lamb (Questionable), Cody Zeller (Questionable)

The Hornets have officially been eliminated from the playoffs, so this makes playing any of Dwight Howard, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Kemba Walker very risky. My preference is to avoid them since they have nothing left to play for other than pride. I’d expect them to continue starting but it wouldn’t surprise me if their minutes started to shrink as we close the season. The injury situation is important if you’re targeting this game because I’d expect the backups to get some decent run depending on who is out. Malik Monk is probably my favorite play on the Hornets as I’m sure they’ll want to develop him.

Jeremy Lamb missed the last game with a late injury so that opened up some minutes for Dwayne Bacon. But Bacon got hurt at the end of their last game and didn’t return, so his status is up in the air. Depending on what happens, this could open up time for Bacon if he’s healthy or someone like Treveon Graham, who I don’t have much interest in.

If Cody Zeller is out, maybe we see more Guillermo Hernangomez. Hernangomez nearly posted a double-double in 17 minutes last game so he’s an intriguing GPP play.

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.8 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 ( of 20)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Guillermo Hernangomez (if Cody Zeller is out), Malik Monk

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls – 3:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Chicago Bulls
			Vegas Total		210.5					Vegas Total		210.5
			Vegas Spread		-8.0					Vegas Spread		8.0
			Implied Team Total		109.3					Implied Team Total		101.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.7					Pace Projection +/-		-0.6
Projected Starters	Tomas Satoransky	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Mike Scott	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	Cameron Payne	Justin Holiday	David Nwaba	Lauri Markkanen	Cristiano Felicio
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	21	28	23	25	25		DvP	14	14	18	3	6
DRPM Rat.	10	4	20	26	30		DRPM Rat.	7	14	2	29	9

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

Markieff Morris (Questionable, left Saturday early with an illness), John Wall (Out – Rest)

John Wall made his return to the Wizards on Saturday after a lengthy absence but has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bulls for rest. Tomas Satoransky has been named the replacement starter and draws a fantastic matchup against a Bulls team that ranks 21st in DvP against point guards. Satoransky makes for a fantastic play here given the matchup and I’m sure he’ll want to prove he’s still worthy of minutes with John Wall back, although I wish he was a bit cheaper. Wall’s absence should also push Ramon Sessions back into the rotation as the backup point guard. He’s not someone I’m targeting but I wanted to mention him because he has posted some solid games lately and is cheap if you need to punt that low.

The other big news is that Markieff Morris left Saturday’s game early with an illness and didn’t return. Dunder Mifflin’s Mike Scott drew the second-half start in his place and would make for a fine punt play if he starts and Morris is out. Kelly Oubre would also benefit and presumably see an uptick in minutes.

Otto Porter and Bradley Beal are firmly in-play against a weak Bulls team and the Wizards are still fighting for playoff positioning, as they are just 1.5 games from falling to the 8th seed. I expect them to keep playing hard. I will also consider Marcin Gortat as a secondary play given the Bulls are 25th in DvP against centers.

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (9 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 ( of 20)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Mike Scott (if Markieff Morris is out)

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat, Kelly Oubre (GPP), Tomas Satoransky

Chicago Bulls

Notable Injuries

Kris Dunn (Out), Zach LaVine (Out), Paul Zipser (Out)

Wow, what a mess this Bulls team is. They accidentally won on Friday even though they tried their best to tank. They played 11 guys and nobody played more than 27 minutes. Cristiano Felicio dominated in those 27 minutes, scoring 8 points with 16 rebounds. If you’re playing a short slate then you’ll probably need to get some players on the Bulls, but otherwise I have no interest in a team doing its best to lose. On a short slate, Cameron Payne profiles as a secondary play as he just doesn’t get enough minutes to smash, and Lauri Markkanen is talented (and cheap) enough to pay dividends in a short period of time. Felicio, Noah Vonleh and Bobby Portis also deserve consideration, especially if we get word Robin Lopez is out resting. But this is not a team I want much, if any, exposure to.

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.0 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 ( of 20)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cristiano Felicio, Lauri Markkanen, Cameron Payne, Bobby Portis, Noah Vonleh

Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Los Angeles Clippers
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		2.5					Vegas Spread		-2.5
			Implied Team Total		106.5					Implied Team Total		109.0
			Pace Projection +/-		1.7					Pace Projection +/-		-1.4
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner		Projected Starters	Austin Rivers	Tyrone Wallace	Danilo Gallinari	Tobias Harris	DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	15	29	28	19	23		DvP	6	6	11	10	24
DRPM Rat.	24	2	7	18	8		DRPM Rat.	19	1	24	5	12

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Trevor Booker (Game Time Decision)

Trevor Booker is a game time decision and if he misses the game, that would help guys like Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. Turner had a dream matchup against the Kings last game but only played 27 minutes and gave way to Sabonis in the 4th quarter. Turner has now scored fewer than 27 DraftKings points in four straight games and it’s a bit concerning the Pacers went to Sabonis down the stretch. The Pacers are playing for playoff positioning and are currently 5th in the East, so they are still trying to win. While Turner has a nice matchup again on Sunday, I’m viewing him more as a secondary option with terrific upside in tournaments.

Thaddeus Young has been on a tear and now gets a decent matchup. He’s scored at least 30 or more DraftKings points in eight of his last nine games and has been getting heavy minutes. I love him in all formats and across the industry, but especially his $6,200 price on FanDuel (he’s $6,900 on DraftKings).

This could be a sneaky Bojan Bogdanovic spot. It’s a good matchup on paper and he’s been in fantastic form lately.

Victor Oladipo has also been solid lately and if I’m playing a short slate, I almost have more interest in Oladipo than in Harden against the Spurs and with nothing left to play for. I also like Darren Collison in this spot. I need to stay on brand and mention this is a revenge game for Collison AND a hometown / college narrative game. He’s from Rancho Cucamonga, which is 45 minutes from Los Angeles, and he also went to UCLA. Narrative alert!

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 ( of 20)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young (prefer on FD)

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Myles Turner

Los Angeles Clippers

Notable Injuries

Milos Teodosic (Out for season)

The Clippers are running out of time and need some help. They currently sit 9th in the West and are two games back of the final playoff spot. The Clippers did get Danilo Gallinari back from injury and he played 25 minutes in his return, which shifted Wesley Johnson back to the bench where he only played 6 minutes, so he’s no longer a factor. Gallinari is still very cheap so we’ll need to see if he’ll have his minutes bumped up on Sunday. If he can get closer to 30-32 minutes, he could pay off his salary in a hurry.

This should be a prime spot for DeAndre Jordan to feast. The Pacers are 24th in DvP against centers. For some reason he’s only $7,300 on FanDuel but $8,500 on DraftKings. I have interest either way but that’s a big discrepancy, especially when you have more salary cap to spend on FanDuel.

I’m viewing Tobias Harris and Austin Rivers as secondary plays, as Jordan is my primary target here. I also do like Lou Williams as the Clippers are going to need him to score. It’s interesting to note that Williams, Rivers and Tyrone Wallace all saw 30-35 minutes on Friday, so all can co-exist. Wallace is a great punt play although I’m viewing him more as a secondary option given he faces Victor Oladipo.

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 ( of 20)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeAndre Jordan, Lou Williams

Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari (would consider elite if we hear he’ll get more minutes), Austin Rivers, Tyrone Wallace

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs – 3:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets							San Antonio Spurs
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.3					Pace Projection +/-		0.5
Projected Starters	James Harden	Eric Gordon	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Patty Mills	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	3	3	8	1	4		DvP	7	13	9	5	18
DRPM Rat.	1	27	1	8	6		DRPM Rat.	14	23	13	10	3

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Eric Gordon (Will Play), Chris Paul (Out), Nene (Questionable)

The big news is that Chris Paul has been ruled out, while Eric Gordon will play after missing their last game. Meanwhile, Nene is questionable and it’s unclear what his status is.

The bigger news to note is that the Raptors lost on Saturday, meaning the Rockets clinched the best record in the NBA this season and now own homecourt advantage through the playoffs. Given this news, I have a hard time wanting to play any of the Rockets’ stars (James Harden, Eric Gordon, Clint Capela) given there is no reason to push them at this point. We’re being told Gordon will play, but given his injury history I can’t imagine they push him too hard. Factoring in the circumstances and matchup against the Spurs, I’m only going to focus on the secondary pieces on the Rockets with the hope they get extended run. I suppose it’s certainly possible the Rockets try to win this game and Harden/Capela have great games, but I’d rather target players who are still fighting for their playoff lives.

It’s certainly no fun to roster Gerald Green, but he’s probably my favorite play on this team and he should see additional run with Paul out. He would also benefit if we end up hearing James Harden is resting. Just keep in mind this is Gerald Green against the Spurs we’re talking about, so even if he draws a start we may want to be cautious about heavy exposure.

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 113.6 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 20)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 20)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gerald Green, potentially others if we hear Harden or Capela is resting

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (No timetable on return)

The Spurs are in must-win mode as they are currently 4th in the Western Conference but only one game separates the 4th seed from the 8th seed. So while the Spurs are going to do everything in their power to win, it’s hard to pinpoint who we need to play given 1) we need to first see if the Rockets rest anyone, because this game could be a blowout in the Spurs’ favor if Houston decides to lay down and use this as a rest game, and 2) Pop is completely unpredictable in his rotations and minutes. The safest play on this team is LaMarcus Aldridge, but I’m not a fan of his $8,900 price tag if this isn’t a competitive game. He is the safest bet to lead the team in fantasy points, though, so there’s some safety in his salary barring injury. Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray should also see solid minutes, and they won’t have to deal with Chris Paul on the other end. My recommendation is to try and keep a pulse of how competitive you think this game will be based on the Rockets’ starting lineup, and that will dictate how much exposure you have to the Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 102.5 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 20)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 20)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge, Patty Mills, Dejounte Murray

Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 6:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		217.5					Vegas Total		217.5
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		103.3					Implied Team Total		114.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.9
Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Dorian Finney-Smith	Harrison Barnes	Dirk Nowitzki	Dwight Powell		Projected Starters	Jose Calderon	Rodney Hood	LeBron James	Larry Nance	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	23	21	29	18	20		DvP	22	11	6	21	11
DRPM Rat.	13	29	25	2	19		DRPM Rat.	28	6	28	25	8

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

J.J. Barea (Out), Salah Mejri (Out), Dirk Nowitzki (Questionable), Dwight Powell (Questionable)

The Cavaliers are 11 point favorites and the Mavericks continue to tank, so at first I didn’t think I’d have any interest in the Mavericks. But the Mavs have some injuries that may force some players to get some minutes. J.J. Barea is out, so that should give time to Dennis Smith Jr., Yogi Ferrell, Aaron Harrison and Kyle Collinsworth. My biggest concern is that none are seeing a huge amount of minutes, so they are more like secondary options. DSJ and Yogi are my favorites of the bunch.

Despite the tank-a-thon, Harrison Barnes continues to see his regular minutes and he’s played at least 31 minutes in nine of his last ten games. He’s my favorite target on the Mavs and would see a bump if Dirk Nowitzki missed the game, since he’s listed as questionable.

The injury news on the big men is what we need to monitor. Salah Mejri is out, so that should mean Nerlens Noel is in the rotation. And with Dwight Powell questionable and Dirk questionable, that may force the Mavs to play Noel and Maxi Kleber some minutes. Kleber has been playing well lately and would be a nice punt option depending on what happens to Dwight and Dirk.

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.6 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (17 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 ( of 20)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.7 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yogi Ferrell, Maxi Kleber (if Dwight Powell or Dirk Nowitzki is ruled out), Nerlens Noel, Dennis Smith Jr.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

George Hill (Out), Kyle Korver (Out)

With George Hill out with a sprained ankle and Kyle korver still out due to his brother’s passing, the Cavs are going to be a bit short-handed in the backcourt.

Before diving into that situation, it’s worth noting the Cavs are 11 point favorites against a Mavs team that wants to lose. I have a hard time paying the price tag on LeBron James knowing this game could blow out and the Mavs have no incentive to win. The Cavs are trying to maintain the 3rd seed in the East so there is some merit to playing LeBron if you think the Mavs can keep this game close, but I’m viewing him more as a secondary play on this slate, which sounds kind of crazy.

Back to the guard situation – we could see Jose Calderon start alongside Rodney Hood in the backcourt, but I’d much rather pay up for Jordan Clarkson. Clarkson should be the main beneficiary to Hill’s absence, and it was Clarkson who played 30 minutes on Friday after Hill left the game, finishing with 27.8 FanDuel points. The absence of Hill and Korver also helps Rodney Hood some, especially if Jose Calderon starts and mainly acts as a game manager / distributor.

I’m really confused by the big men situation here and frankly want to stay away. Kevin Love came back from his concussion but only played 24 minutes before leaving with some hamstring issue. Tristan Thompson played 21 minutes off the bench while Larry Nance started and only played 15 minutes. I’m most likely to just avoid this situation and focus my attention on the backcourt if all three are active for this game.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.7 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (2 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6 ( of 20)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood

Secondary Plays – LeBron James

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