NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 10th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Dallas at Minnesota – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -4.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Wiggins-Prince-Garnett-Towns
| Dallas | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.60 | Team Pace | 97.49 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Andrew Wiggins | Tayshaun Prince | Kevin Garnett | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 16 | 15 | 8 | 22 | Opp. Season | 17 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 14 | 25 | 19 | 22 | Opp. Season | 15 | 3 | 24 | 26 | 14 | |
Dallas (Record: 21-16 Away: 10-10)
Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.9 (16 of 30)
The first game of the day features the Dallas Mavericks at the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves are a slightly below average defensive squad this year ranked between 16th and 19th in points allowed and defensive efficiency. The Mavericks are small four point favorites and are one of seven teams today with a projected total of over 100 (101.3). Deron Williams is currently questionable for this game. If he is unable to suit up, Raymond Felton and J.J. Barea would get a nice boost in minutes and would both become good value plays.
Elite Plays
With the Mavericks looking a lot healthier these days, they become very tough plays because of the nature of their spread the ball around offense. Pachulia though, has been a very consistent mid-priced option at the center position as of late. Taking out the game where he sat out for rest, Pachulia has scored at least 33 fantasy points in each of his last seven games. His ceiling is not a whole lot higher than around that, but does give you a solid , consistent center for the price and the matchup today.
FD — $6,700 — C
DK — $6,200 — C
Usage — Season: 16.3
Min/Game — Season: 28.9
Secondary Plays
Raymond Felton and J.J. Barea would get a nice boost if Deron Williams sitting out. Felton would be the better play, while Barea is cheaper across the industry.
Minnesota (Record: 12-25 Home: 5-15)
Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.3 (14 of 30)
Dallas is an average defensive team so far this year. They are ranked between 14th and 17th in points allowed, fantasy points allowed as well as defensive efficiency. As of now, there are no injury concerns for this Timberwolves who are getting very healthy, which hurts a lot of their fantasy value. They have a low 97.3 team total today against the Mavericks. Ricky Rubio could be seen as a GPP play today, but there are better options on the full slate.
Elite Plays
If you must play a Timberwolves player this afternoon, Wiggins looks to be the guy. He is getting by far the most consistent minutes on this Timberwolves squad and has played at least 35+ in seven of his last ten starts. He is coming off a monster 36 point performance against the Cavs and while he probably won’t repeat that point total, he should spend enough time on the floor to hit value.
FD — $6,300 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SG
Usage — Season: 26.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.8
Secondary Plays
None
New Orleans at L.A. Clippers – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Gee-Davis-Asik
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Johnson-Richard Mbah a Moute-Jordan
| New Orleans | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.75 | Team Pace | 98.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Alonzo Gee | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Wesley Johnson | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 17 | Opp. Season | 18 | 27 | 14 | 22 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 18 | Opp. Season | 1 | 19 | 29 | 9 | 29 | |
New Orleans (Record: 11-24 Away: 4-15)
Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.5 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.84 (11 of 30)
The Clippers are a slightly above average defensive team this year as they are still led by one of the better defensive point guards in the league in Chris Paul. They are ranked in the top 13 in points allowed, fantasy points allowed and defensive efficiency. The real question here is the status of Anthony Davis as he is currently questionable. If he is unable to go, it would give a huge boost to Ryan Anderson would become an elite value play today. Guys like Alexis Ajinca would get more minutes and would be in play if you are playing the early only slates.
Elite Plays
He is a decent play with Davis in the lineup, but immediately becomes an elite play without Davis as he will become the focal point of this offense. He will have a tough matchup with CP3 on him, but the usage should outweigh that and he should have a fine game.
FD — $7,600 — PG
DK — $8,000 — SG
Usage — Season: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.2
Secondary Plays
IF Anthony Davis is out, Ryan Anderson would become an elite value play, while Alexis Ajinca would be a decent punt if you are playing the early slates only.
L.A. Clippers (Record: 24-13 Home: 12-6)
New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.3 (25 of 30)
The Pelicans are a very poor defensive team this season. They are ranked 25th or higher in defensive efficiency as well as points and fantasy points allowed per game. They will have an even tougher time on the defensive end, assuming Anthony Davis is out.
Elite Plays
Jordan is in play regardless of the status of Anthony Davis, but if he sits, he makes for one of the better options on the day. Jordan has had at least 38 fantasy points in each of his last four games and should have very little resistance inside today.
FD — $8,000 — C
DK — $7,900 — C
Usage — Season: 12.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.9
Paul was able to show yesterday why he is one of the better defenders in the league and did so while putting up a solid 44-fantasy point performance. He has a great matchup today and if this game is able to stay close, he should have another 40-45 point game.
FD — $9,300 — PG
DK — $9,000 — PG
Usage — Season: 27.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.1
Secondary Plays
Redick is not going to win you any tournaments himself, but he does provide a decent floor of around 20 fantasy points and a ceiling of about 30 if he sees his shot fall early. This matchup is ideal as New Orleans is ranked 27th in the league at defending against the shooting guard position.
FD — $5,100 — SG
DK — $5,300 — SG
Usage — Season: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 27.1
Boston at Memphis – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -1.5, 193 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Thomas-Turner-Crowder-Johnson-Olynyk
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Barnes-Randolph-Gasol
| Boston | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.81 | Team Pace | 95.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Evan Turner | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Kelly Olynyk | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Matt Barnes | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 6 | 24 | 12 | 4 | Opp. Season | 1 | 9 | 22 | 24 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 2 | 30 | 2 | 1 | Opp. Season | 8 | 12 | 20 | 21 | 10 | |
Boston (Record: 19-17 Away: 10-7)
Memphis Grizzlies Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.6 (10 of 30)
The Grizzlies are slowly creeping their way back up the defensive charts after starting off the season as just an average defensive team. They are not in the top ten in the league in fantasy points allowed as well as points allowed per game. Boston has a projected team total in this game of 95.8, which is 6.7 points lower than their season average. This really hurts the value of some of the Celtics starters. Avery Bradley is currently a game time decision, which is big news for Evan Turner who may be sent back to the bench even after some very solid performances.
Elite Plays
With Avery Bradley returning, it directly affects the value of their guards as well as Evan Turner. A player who should not be affected too much is Crowder who was getting 30-35 minutes with Avery in the lineup. Crowder is a solid play even with the slight rise in his salary as he can do a bit of everything on the court and 30 fantasy points is what he needs for value, which he has hit in six of his last ten games.
FD — $6,400 — SF
DK — $6,500 — SF
Usage — Season: 17.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.3
Secondary Plays
The matchup is no where close to ideal, but if you want to take a cheap GPP flyer at the center position, Olynyk is worth the mention. In his last three games, he has seen his minutes at 33, 29 and 34. While he does not provide a huge ceiling, 25-30 points is not out of the question and would be about 6x value at his price.
FD — $4,500 — C
DK — $5,100 — C
Usage — Season: 20.0
Min/Game — Season: 20.6
Memphis (Record: 20-18 Home: 12-6)
Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.0 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.6 (12 of 30)
Boston has been a solid defensive squad this year, coming in ranked second in defensive efficiency. They are also eighth in points allowed and 12th in fantasy points allowed on the season. Memphis comes in with a projected team total of 97.3, which is slightly above their season average (95.8). The big question mark right now is the status of both Mike Conley and Courtney Lee. They are both listed as doubtful, which would make some great value on the Grizzlies side if both could not suit up.
Elite Plays
Chalmers did not give us the performance many were hoping for on Friday night, but he did play a whopping 40 minutes in that game and did produce just over 20 fantasy points. If he is going to get those type of minutes again, regardless of the matchup, he is an elite value play.
FD — $4,900 — PG
DK — $5,400 — PG
Usage — Season: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 20.7
A lot of the offense is also going to fall on the shoulders of Gasol here. If Dwight Howard sits out tonight, there really is only Gasol at the top of the center page and then everyone else. He is a top option at the position and should have a solid game against the interior defense of the Celtics.
FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
Usage — Season: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.6
Secondary Plays
Jeff Green is another Grizzly who directly benefits from all the injuries. The two guards being out, means more freedom for Green to launch. He took 13 shots in his 35 minutes on Friday and a similar output should happen today against the Celtics. Oh and there is that revenge factor as well. Green will likely be the more popular play, but Barnes is also in play here as well at the same position and around the same salary.
FD — $4,800 — SF
DK — $5,300 — SF
Usage — Season: 18.0
Min/Game — Season: 29.2
Playing a number of Grizzlies tonight is not a horrible strategy as so many are in great spots, including a guy like Marc Gasol. Yet, value is always needed and Tony Allen steps right into that discussion. Allen is extremely cheap across the major sites and played 38 minutes with the injuries on Friday. If the same guys are out, he is an easy plug and play tonight.
FD — $4,000 — SG
DK — $4,300 — SF
Usage — Season: 15.5
Min/Game — Season: 23.1
Cleveland at Philadelphia – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -15, 204.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Grant-Noel-Okafor
| Cleveland | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -15.0 | Vegas Sprd | 15.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.8 | Team Proj. | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.17 | Team Pace | 99.76 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Nik Stauskas | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 18 | 30 | 29 | 30 | Opp. Season | 16 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 27 | 23 | 5 | 27 | Opp. Season | 29 | 6 | 18 | 13 | 4 | |
Cleveland (Record: 25-9 Away: 10-8)
Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.5 (27 of 30)
The 76ers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league so far this year as they are 25th or worse in fantasy points allowed as well as points allowed. This game has by far the highest spread as the Cavs are monster 15 point favorites against the 76ers, which does mean we have a major blowout alert here. Playing Lebron James here is very difficult as there are other high priced options in much better spots tonight and in games that should be much closer and “(player-popup)Kyrie Irving”:/players/kyrie-irving-13334’s price has already jumped up enough that we are not getting much value out of him for the minutes he should play in this game tonight. The other player worth a mention is Tristan Thompson. He is starting and getting the minutes, but has been poor recently. With the blowout threat, using some of the other value power forwards may be the safer route.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
It is difficult not to list Lebron James in some capacity here as it is such a great matchup against a terrible team. Yet, I can also see Lebron distributing a lot in the three quarters he plays and turn in a 35-40 point performance.
FD — $9,900 — SF
DK — $9,800 — SF
Usage — Season: 32.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.6
Philadelphia (Record: 4-35 Home: 2-12)
Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.3 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.4 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.9 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.7 (3 of 30)
Cleveland is an elite defensive squad this year as they are ranked in the top seven in each of the above defensive categories. This game could get very ugly quickly today as the 76ers have only a 94.5 point team total. Playing the 76ers in this type of matchup is tough, but Ism Smith’s salary is still a bit low over at Fanduel and Jahlil Okafor has received more minutes and played well if you want to take a cheap, tournament center.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Fanduel seems to refuse to raise “(player-popup)Ish Smith”:/players/ish-smith-13958’s salary, which could be due to his up and down games over the last four. He has 40 point upside as he should get 30-33 minutes tonight, but due to the matchup he is a secondary play only.
FD — $6,100 — PG
DK — $6,900 — PG
Usage — Season: 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 24.4
Indiana at Houston – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Houston -1, 207 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Hill-Allen
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Capela-Howard
| Indiana | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.0 | Team Proj. | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.06 | Team Pace | 99.41 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Jordan Hill | Lavoy Allen | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Clint Capela | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 22 | 28 | 30 | 12 | Opp. Season | 4 | 23 | 3 | 18 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 25 | 11 | 7 | 5 | Opp. Season | 11 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 11 | |
Indiana (Record: 21-15 Away: 9-10)
Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 210.1 (28 of 30)
Houston is a well-below average defensive squad ranked 26th or lower in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers come into this game with a 102.5 projected team total that is slightly above their season average (101.9). Another player not mentioned below is Ian Mahinmi who on a slate that doesn’t have a ton of high-priced options at center, could be a decent cap saver, especially if Dwight Howard doesn’t play.
Elite Plays
While George has not lived up to his early season form, he has shown glimpses recently as he had a three game streak of 46+ fantasy points or higher in the last five games. Yet, over his last two he has 29 and 31 fantasy points, which has kept his price down to around the 9k mark. This matchup is ideal as he should get a few extra possesions against this Rockets squad today
FD — $8,800 — SF
DK — $9,100 — SF
Usage — Season: 29.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.7
Secondary Plays
While I do not love Ellis this year, but he is worth a mention due to the matchup against Harden and the 22nd ranked shooting guard defense of the Rockets. Ellis is not going to get you 50 fantasy points, but at his price point he just needs around 30, which should be done in this game against Houston today.
FD — $6,200 — SG
DK — $6,000 — SG
Usage — Season: 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.2
Houston (Record: 18-19 Home: 11-9)
Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.6 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 191.9 (7 of 30)
Indiana comes into this game as a top ten defensive squad in points allowed, fantasy points allowed and defensive efficiency. This should be a solid game from start to finish as the Rockets are small one point favorites tonight with a high total of 206. Currently, “(player-popup)Dwight Howard”:/players/dwight-howard-1501’s status is up in the air as he sat out the last game with back soreness and did not practice yesterday. If he does sit out, Terrence Jones becomes on of the better value plays at the power forward position as he got 30 minutes in their last game with Dwight out and put up 26.6 fantasy points. Ty Lawson is also out, but his absence does not give a huge bump to anyone as Beverley and Terry are splitting their time at the point, making neither a good option tonight.
Elite Plays
While it is not the greatest team to matchup against, Harden is matchup proof as we all know. He is coming off two 40+ point fantasy games against a slow moving Utah squad and 50 point fantasy games are a normal occurrence for the bearded one. This game should stay close throughout and if Dwight sits again, it just gives more of a boost to Harden.
FD — $10,000 — SG
DK — $9,900 — SG
Usage — Season: 32.4
Min/Game — Season: 37.8
Secondary Plays
The rest of the Rockets plays are very dependent on the status of Dwight Howard. If he is out, Terrence Jones becomes a great value play and Clint Capela gets a bump in value as well.