NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 21st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics – 1:00 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Bismack Biyombo | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DvP | 30 | 27 | 20 | 29 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 28 | 30 | 27 | 27 | |
Orlando Magic
Notable Injuries
Nikola Vucevic (Out)
Arron Afflalo (Out – Suspension)
Happy Sunday, RotoGrinders crew! We have an identical Sunday slate to what we saw a week ago, with four games on the docket. However, the start times are a little weird this time around. We have one very early start, two mid-afternoon starts, and one evening game. FanDuel is chopping off this first game and using the other three games as their main slate, while DraftKings is using the full four game slate as their primary selection. We get things started with the Magic and Celtics, and the Magic bring with them the lowest team total on today’s slate at just 98 points. Boston is a strong defensive squad, and Orlando is a hefty road underdog in this game. At first glance, it would appear that we want to really limit our exposure to Orlando here.
However, the good news is that Orlando tends to run a relatively short rotation. Only one bench player saw more than 18 minutes of court time in their last game against Cleveland. As such, there are a few ways we can go here. Bismack Biyombo is averaging 10 points and 11 rebounds per game in the month of January, but he is generally capped around 30 minutes. At his current elevated price point, I don’t see much of a ceiling. I prefer him in cash games. Aaron Gordon is your upside play here, and he is coming off a game where he attempted 20 shots (including ten three pointers) on his way to a 17/10 line that also included four steals. Gordon is a very strong tournament play on this Sunday slate, despite the difficult matchup.
The maddening inconsistency of Elfrid Payton continues to frustrate fantasy owners. I’ll sit that one out today with the tough matchup on tap. The safest point per dollar play in the backcourt is likely Evan Fournier. He has picked up his play over the last few weeks and is still moderately priced on every site. He’s a fringe elite play on a four game Sunday. I can’t trust anyone from the bench right now, and Jonathan Simmons is off my radar with Fournier and Gordon controlling the usage on offense.
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.2 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -6.2 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,000 | $6,600 | 29.4 | -2.6 | 29.1 | -1.6 | 1.01 | 21.4% | 4 | 1 | 20 | |
| Evan Fournier | $5,800 | $5,900 | 27.8 | 1.0 | 32.6 | -0.3 | 0.85 | 20.7% | 2 | 7 | 1 | |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,800 | $5,200 | 22.7 | -4.2 | 28.8 | -0.4 | 0.79 | 19.9% | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,600 | $7,700 | 34.5 | -5.8 | 33.7 | 1.3 | 1.02 | 20.9% | 10 | 3 | 3 | |
| Bismack Biyombo | $7,200 | $6,000 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 18.3 | 8.7 | 0.93 | 10.9% | 7 | 11 | 1 | |
| D.J. Augustin | $3,900 | $3,600 | 15.9 | 1.9 | 20.2 | -1.7 | 0.79 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,300 | $4,000 | 14.0 | 6.2 | 17.5 | 7.1 | 0.80 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon (GPP), Evan Fournier
Secondary Plays – Bismack Biyombo (Cash), Aaron Gordon (Cash)
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries
Kyrie Irving (Probable)
Aron Baynes (Questionable)
Kyrie Irving appears to be on track to play today. Thank goodness. The last thing my blood pressure needs is another day of Marcus Smart failing all of us in a starting role. Both Smart and Terry Rozier were underwhelming in Irving’s absence the other night, in a game where the Celtics scored just 80 points against the Sixers. That won’t get the job done in the NBA. I would expect a better offensive performance today against the Magic, who are a fantasy-friendly opponent. Orlando ranks sixth in the NBA in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency. That screams one thing: all aboard! Don’t be afraid to heavily target the Celtics today.
Of course, if Irving is active without restrictions today, he is a very strong option at point guard. With this being the first game of the day, we should get news well in advance of lineup lock. Keep an eye on it. The wing players are also decent options in the favorable matchup, and while it’s difficult to trust Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum on a game-to-game basis, this is the type of game where they could post some bloated lines. I’ll consider both as solid secondary plays on a short slate given Orlando’s awful defensive numbers against the wing spots. Al Horford is also a steady option in the middle, but Bismack Biyombo will present more of a defensive challenge than some of Orlando’s other players.
If you are looking for a frisky value option, give Marcus Morris a peek. His minutes have steadily been trending in the right direction, and he might see a few more minutes if Aron Baynes is unable to play this afternoon. Morris is averaging 15 points and seven rebounds over 25 minutes per game over the last three contests, and he should have a reasonable floor against Orlando. He is still available a sub-$5,000 price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings, so the potential is there. You need some exposure to Boston in this game.
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.7 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 6.3 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,200 | $8,600 | 38.0 | -0.1 | 32.7 | 4.1 | 1.16 | 29.5% | 25 | 30 | 26 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,600 | $6,400 | 25.8 | -1.3 | 31.4 | 1.7 | 0.82 | 17.9% | 30 | 27 | 28 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,200 | $5,800 | 26.6 | -1.3 | 31.0 | -0.8 | 0.86 | 15.6% | 29 | 20 | 30 | |
| Al Horford | $7,300 | $7,500 | 33.5 | -0.6 | 32.7 | 2.0 | 1.02 | 17.4% | 18 | 29 | 27 | |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,600 | 15.4 | 1.2 | 18.4 | 0.8 | 0.84 | 14.3% | 25 | 19 | 27 | |
| Marcus Morris | $4,700 | $4,900 | 21.2 | 3.0 | 23.6 | 2.0 | 0.90 | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Marcus Smart | $5,400 | $5,500 | 24.2 | 0.2 | 30.4 | -1.4 | 0.80 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Terry Rozier | $3,800 | $5,000 | 19.9 | -4.1 | 23.0 | -1.4 | 0.86 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (if active), Al Horford
Secondary Plays – Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum
New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers – 3:30 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Tyler Ennis | Josh Hart | Corey Brewer | Kyle Kuzma | Julius Randle | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 23 | 28 | 25 | 25 | DvP | 25 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 15 | 14 | 23 | 30 | 18 | DRPM Rat. | 18 | 21 | 15 | 5 | 28 | |
New York Knicks
Notable Injuries
None
The Knicks are fully healthy for the first time in quite a while, and things are looking up in a favorable matchup against the Lakers. Los Angeles surprisingly has been a solid team this year in terms of defensive efficiency, but that is offset by the fact that they currently lead in the NBA in tempo. These teams played at Madison Square Garden earlier this year, and the Knicks pulled off a 113-109 overtime win. Kristaps Porzingis was a stud in that game, piling up 37 points on 14 of 26 shooting while adding 11 rebounds and five blocks for good measure. He profiles as a great play against the fast pace of the Lakers, and there’s massive upside here. Give Porzingis a long look at power forward today.
There is a bit of risk with Porzingis, because Tim Hardaway Jr. has returned to take the keys to the offense. He was phenomenal with 31 points in a win over the Jazz on Friday, and he is in play despite a bit of a price bump. He’s a primary play on FanDuel at $5,900, but he is more of a secondary option on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. Jarrett Jack takes a huge hit with Hardaway controlling the show, and Jack is completely off my radar right now. You can say the same for Michael Beasley, who is now simply a bit too expensive for his current role. Courtney Lee is never a sexy option, but he should be able to provide enough stats in an up tempo matchup to be worthwhile. Give him a look in your cash games this afternoon.
We never know where the minutes will land for Enes Kanter, but the Lakers don’t have strong defenders on the interior. There is per minute upside in droves with him, so he is squarely on the tournament radar. I’d look for more safety in cash games.
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.2 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.6 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 21.4 | 6.9 | 26.8 | 3.5 | 0.80 | 17.8% | 18 | 24 | 15 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,000 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 24.8 | -2.6 | 32.9 | 1.7 | 0.75 | 16.7% | 22 | 23 | 14 |
| Tim Hardaway | $5,900 | $6,800 | $12,700 | 30.3 | 0.3 | 33.3 | -5.5 | 0.91 | 22.5% | 18 | 28 | 23 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,600 | $8,700 | $16,500 | 40.8 | 7.0 | 33.2 | 3.6 | 1.23 | 27.9% | 29 | 25 | 30 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,400 | $6,400 | $13,200 | 28.7 | 0.5 | 25.2 | 1.1 | 1.14 | 18.6% | 18 | 25 | 18 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,900 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 20.0 | -0.3 | 17.1 | 2.3 | 1.17 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Michael Beasley | $5,600 | $5,900 | $11,500 | 21.6 | 7.1 | 19.3 | 4.2 | 1.12 | 24.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD), Kristaps Porzingis
Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr. (DK & FDRAFT), Enes Kanter (GPP), Courtney Lee (Cash)
Los Angeles Lakers
Notable Injuries
Lonzo Ball (Out)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Questionable)
Brandon Ingram (Questionable)
Unfortunately, there’s not much predicting we can do here. Luke Walton is perhaps the most frustrating coach in the NBA from a fantasy perspective. Even with multiple injuries, Walton still feels like he has to play everyone. Here is my message:
Hey, Luke, this is not the five year old YMCA basketball league!
Despite Ball, Caldwell-Pope, and Ingram all sitting out the last game, nine Lakers still saw at least 16 minutes of court time. That is perplexing. Julius Randle started but played just 20 minutes. Alex Caruso played 28 minutes off the bench. Jordan Clarkson got more run than he has seen in a month and went off with a 33/7/7 line. Walton is simply unpredictable, and we don’t even know the status of KCP and Ingram as of the time I am writing this.
Will someone have a good game from the Lakers? Sure. Can we predict who it is before we even know that status of the injured players? Absolutely not. The likes of Randle, Clarkson, Kyle Kuzma, etc… all have some upside, but where will the minutes land? They are certainly safer plays if the two questionable players are out again. Josh Hart and Clarkson would be the safest plays of the bunch if all the injured players are sidelined. Keep an eye on this, and hopefully we get news before the first game tips off.
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.3 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ennis | $3,800 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 9.2 | -0.8 | 10.9 | 2.9 | 0.85 | 17.8% | 24 | 25 | 18 |
| Josh Hart | $4,200 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 13.1 | 1.0 | 18.9 | 1.9 | 0.69 | 11.4% | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| Corey Brewer | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,300 | 8.1 | -2.1 | 12.1 | -0.5 | 0.67 | 12.3% | 23 | 15 | 15 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $5,900 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 27.9 | 0.3 | 31.2 | -3.0 | 0.89 | 19.9% | 4 | 8 | 5 |
| Julius Randle | $6,600 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 25.9 | 1.2 | 23.0 | 2.3 | 1.13 | 20.6% | 8 | 7 | 28 |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,800 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 21.8 | -6.6 | 22.7 | -3.3 | 0.96 | 25.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Larry Nance | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.5 | 3.0 | 21.8 | 1.9 | 1.08 | 14.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBA — pending injury news on Caldwell-Pope and Ingram (Hart and Clarkson are primary plays if they are both out)
Secondary Plays – TBA — pending injury news on Caldwell-Pope and Ingram (Kuzma is a secondary play if they are both out; the whole team is risky if they both play)
Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons – 4:00 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.5 | Implied Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 9 | 27 | 12 | 14 | DvP | 27 | 21 | 10 | 26 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 20 | 17 | 26 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 18 | 3 | 19 | 13 | |
Brooklyn Nets
Notable Injuries
None
Well, we move from the unpredictability of Luke Walton to the unpredictability of a fully healthy Brooklyn Nets team. That’s great! Eleven players saw action in a close game the other night, and that’s about what we have come to expect when this team is healthy. This is also a poor matchup for them from a DFS perspective, as they are traveling on the road to face a Detroit team that will definitely try to slow this game down. Be very careful with the Nets here.
D’Angelo Russell has returned to active status and will start to push for the minutes of Spencer Dinwiddie at some point. He is still trying to shake the rust off, though, as he was awful in just 14 minutes against the Heat on Friday. Dinwiddie should be fine for another game or two, and he’s a reasonable secondary option here. The per-minute fantasy potential is certainly there, but Dinwiddie is probably going to be capped around 30 minutes now — and that’s going to be the case for most of the players on this game. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, here’s your 30 minutes. DeMarre Carroll, here’s your 30 minutes. Allen Crabbe, here’s your 29 minutes. Caris LeVert, here’s your 26 minutes off the bench. Welcome to life in Brooklyn.
Given the underwhelming matchup here, I can’t endorse anyone from this team as an elite play. It’s hard to parse the options out in order to determine a favorite. If you are looking for upside, LeVert probably brings the most despite his bench role, while Hollis-Jefferson has the highest floor. Nobody is a must play from this group, and you can probably fade the entire Nets team and get away with it.
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -4.4 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,000 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 29.0 | -0.8 | 28.2 | 2.6 | 1.03 | 22.9% | 20 | 7 | 16 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 21.6 | 3.2 | 29.1 | 2.4 | 0.74 | 16.5% | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $6,000 | $5,700 | $12,100 | 26.2 | 5.8 | 29.1 | 2.1 | 0.90 | 17.9% | 22 | 27 | 17 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $6,500 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 29.0 | -3.0 | 28.5 | -0.3 | 1.02 | 20.3% | 13 | 12 | 26 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 15.5 | -4.3 | 17.6 | -4.4 | 0.88 | 15.5% | 15 | 14 | 3 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,400 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 25.0 | -1.9 | 26.9 | 0.1 | 0.93 | 20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Harris | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 17.2 | -0.1 | 24.9 | 0.1 | 0.69 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert (GPP), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Cash)
Detroit Pistons
Notable Injuries
Reggie Jackson (Out)
The Nets were a defensive sieve last year, and they are still a team we can target fantasy players against even though they have made a lot of strides this year. That is primarily because the Nets still play at one of the fastest paces in the league, so this is definitely a pace-up matchup for the home standing Pistons today. They are also as healthy as they have been in a while, with the exception of Reggie Jackson, who remains sidelined. Ish Smith has been up and down in his stead, but he’s a reasonable option in this matchup. He was on his way to a better game the last time these teams met, but Detroit won by 34 points, and the starters didn’t have to play much in that one. Of course, the blowout risk is still there this time, but I wouldn’t go expecting a 30 point blowout again.
Andre Drummond is your highest upside option on this squad. I can’t stress enough the positive aspects of his 2017-2018 season. His conditioning is better. His foul shooting is a lot better. He doesn’t get into foul trouble a lot these days. He is even becoming a distributor, as he is up to almost four assists per game this year! He has played 38 and 43 minutes over the last two games, and those are unprecedented numbers for a big man. He had a massive 14/21/8 game the last time out. This guy is quietly becoming a top three center in the NBA, and he is a joy to watch on a nightly basis. Drummond is one of the top plays on the entire slate today. Fire him up with confidence.
As for the other options, they aren’t sexy plays, but both Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris are affordably priced, and they also get to take advantage of the pace up matchup. I will consider both as solid mid-range cash game plays and secondary tournament options. Don’t be afraid to get some exposure to the Pistons today. If you want to bank on a potential blowout from a GPP perspective, guys like Reggie Bullock, Luke Kennard, and Dwight Buycks would get more run. I don’t think I can safely bank on that.
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 5.4 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,400 | $6,000 | $12,600 | 20.8 | 7.6 | 22.3 | 7.8 | 0.93 | 23.9% | 27 | 27 | 4 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,400 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 23.8 | 5.6 | 31.8 | 2.2 | 0.75 | 21.5% | 20 | 21 | 18 |
| Reggie Bullock | $3,700 | $4,300 | $8,100 | 14.3 | 4.5 | 23.5 | 7.3 | 0.61 | 11.5% | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 29.2 | 2.2 | 32.5 | -2.2 | 0.90 | 21.3% | 28 | 26 | 19 |
| Andre Drummond | $10,500 | $10,000 | $18,100 | 43.8 | 6.9 | 32.9 | 1.9 | 1.33 | 18.6% | 27 | 29 | 13 |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Ish Smith, Tobias Harris (Cash), Avery Bradley (Cash)
Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris (GPP), Avery Bradley (GPP), Reggie Bullock
Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs – 7:00 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | San Antonio Spurs | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.0 |  | Vegas Total | 199.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 96.5 | Implied Team Total | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Domantas Sabonis | Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | DvP | 14 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 15 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 18 | 1 | 29 | 16 | 29 | |
Indiana Pacers
Notable Injuries
Myles Turner (Out)
The final game of our Sunday slate features the Pacers traveling to San Antonio to face the Spurs. It’s obviously a downgrade in matchup for Indiana, and I am not super interested in targeting them heavily today. Victor Oladipo comes at a premium price tag these days, and this is not the matchup to take the chance on him. I can’t honestly endorse him over the likes of Porzingis, Aldridge, and Drummond on today’s slate. Naturally, Oladipo will carry lower ownership than those other guys, though, and I wouldn’t argue with you if you wanted to take a chance on the talent despite the matchup. As such, I will list him as a secondary option for use in tournament play. He still doesn’t seem to fit the optimal cash game build.
The worry isn’t just limited to Oladipo, either. Indiana shot just 2-for-25 from downtown against the Lakers and scored just 86 points on Friday night. That doesn’t bode well with a trip to San Antonio on tap. Both Darren Collison and Cory Joseph were terrible in that game, and they are essentially chopping minutes a lot of the time now. I wouldn’t get too excited there. Bojan Bogdanovic is 100% scoring dependent, so that gets an easy pass in this matchup.
If you look anywhere, the big man spots seem to be the safest places to go. Indiana is limited on depth with Myles Turner sidelined, and both Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis played 35 minutes against the Lakers. Sabonis has been an absolute beast on the glass with Turner out, and he is averaging 15.1 points and 9.6 rebounds over almost 30 minutes per game in the month of January. Young is always a steady, if unspectacular option. Sabonis is my favorite of the two, especially in tournaments, but both are reasonable mid-range selections on a four game slate.
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -10.4 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,500 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 26.9 | 0.4 | 30.1 | 0.0 | 0.89 | 18.5% | 12 | 3 | 15 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,200 | $8,800 | $16,500 | 42.3 | -2.6 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 1.24 | 27.5% | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,100 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 19.8 | -5.6 | 30.6 | -3.4 | 0.65 | 16.1% | 9 | 5 | 1 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,000 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 26.5 | 0.8 | 32.4 | 0.8 | 0.82 | 15.2% | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Domantas Sabonis | $6,000 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 26.0 | 1.1 | 25.0 | 4.3 | 1.04 | 19.3% | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.5 | -3.1 | 25.6 | 0.5 | 0.72 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 20.2 | 0.9 | 23.3 | -2.5 | 0.86 | 18.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Domantas Sabonis, Thaddeus Young (Cash)
Secondary Plays – Thaddeus Young (GPP), Victor Oladipo (GPP), Darren Collison, Cory Joseph
San Antonio Spurs
Notable Injuries
Rudy Gay (Out)
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Manu Ginobili (Questionable)
San Antonio remains very thin on the wing, with Rudy Gay and Kawhi Leonard both sidelined due to injury. This opens up a healthy dose of minutes for Kyle Anderson. While he isn’t a high usage player, he’s a solid mid-range selection. He won’t score a ton, but he showed his value with 11 rebounds, three assists, two steals, and three blocks in 30 minutes against the Raptors on Friday. I don’t mind him as a cash game choice, but I will likely look elsewhere for upside. That upside can be had in the man named LaMarcus Aldridge, who leads the team with a 33% usage rate with Leonard and Gay off the floor this season. The path to beating Indiana is with a solid big man game, and Aldridge certainly brings that to the table. He is an absolute priority for me today. Aldridge would be the first player I lock into a cash game lineup, and I like the GPP upside as well.
Outside of Aldridge, this team remains difficult to peg. You never know where minutes will land for Pau Gasol. Good luck figuring out the three man point guard rotation. I suppose we know the minutes will be there for Danny Green, especially if Manu Ginobili remains sidelined. Green is capable of knocking down some shots and figures to benefit from a reasonable pace bump in this game. If I had to choose a play from the Spurs besides Aldridge and Anderson in cash games, Green would be the choice — but he is far from a must play. Gasol brings some GPP upside to the table and did play 34 minutes on Friday. With this game not being part of a back-to-back, the minutes should be there tonight. He’s a worthwhile tournament option.
In short, play LaMarcus Aldridge here. Be careful with the rest of the group.
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.3 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 17.5 | -1.3 | 21.9 | 1.3 | 0.80 | 19.9% | 5 | 14 | 18 |
| Danny Green | $4,300 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 20.9 | 2.4 | 26.5 | -1.8 | 0.79 | 14.5% | 12 | 6 | 1 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 23.7 | -2.4 | 27.2 | 0.0 | 0.87 | 13.2% | 6 | 8 | 29 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $9,100 | $8,900 | $16,900 | 39.1 | 0.8 | 33.8 | 0.4 | 1.16 | 26.0% | 20 | 20 | 16 |
| Pau Gasol | $5,700 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 27.7 | -1.0 | 25.0 | 1.4 | 1.11 | 18.4% | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| Patty Mills | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,100 | 17.3 | 2.3 | 24.4 | -1.4 | 0.71 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Davis Bertans | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 12.9 | 10.4 | 0.79 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |