NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 18th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors – 1:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.0 |  | Vegas Total | 217.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.3 | Implied Team Total | 111.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Corey Brewer | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | DvP | 5 | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 22 | 4 | 13 | 14 | DRPM Rat. | 8 | 20 | 5 | 27 | 20 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries
None
Hello Grinders. We have four games on this Sunday afternoon but just three on the main slate. The OKC-TOR game is available on DraftKings and FanDuel as part of the one-game tournament slate they offer so I will go over that game with the one-game format in mind. Let’s dive in.
After the Thunder spent much of Friday declaring Paul George and Steven Adams as questionable, both surprisingly played. In fact, neither had any limitations, going 38 minutes each and posting monster numbers against the Clippers. The Thunder have every incentive to play hard during these final 11 games as they sit in 4th place in the Western Conference standings, but are only separated by 3.5 games from the 10th place Denver Nuggets. As such, I expect everyone to be a full go here.
The big question for these one game slates is – do you pay the premium for Russell Westbrook, or do you take a more balanced approach? He’s $19,000 on FanDuel (which takes up 31.6% of your salary) and $17,000 on DraftKings (which takes up 34% of your salary). This is the question you’ll need to answer first. And if you answer yes on FanDuel, do you plug him into the 1.5X multiplier spot or do you think someone else in this game outscores him?
The Raptors rank 7th in DvP against point guards so on paper this isn’t a cupcake matchup for Westbrook. Kyle Lowry rested in the Raptors’ last game but I fully expect him to be back. On FanDuel, the pricing is soft enough where playing Westbrook still allows you to fit in other starters around him, so if you need Westbrook exposure I think FanDuel is where I would lock him in. And in terms of whether to use the 1.5X spot on him, I expect that to be the chalk move and I think probability wise, that’s probably the best move. If you want to differentiate yourself in these tournaments, you could use Paul George or DeMar DeRozan as I feel those two would be the most likely to outscore Westbrook if it happened. On DraftKings, this is a much harder decision because this is a tough matchup and using Westbrook sacrifices so much elsewhere for your roster construction. The DraftKings Showdown game uses a much tighter pricing where if you go Westbrook, you’re pretty much forced into using one or two of the bench pieces. In this case, I don’t think that’s the worse thing in the world because of how strong Toronto’s second unit is.
The individual matchups for every player are tough as the Raptors are in the top half of DvP for every position except center. This makes Steven Adams the most attractive option from a matchup perspective if you’re looking for a spot to exploit Toronto with. However, the price on both sites is a bit high for my liking. I’d probably rather pay the extra few thousand and reach for Paul George if possible.
The price on Corey Brewer on both sites feels much too cheap the way he’s been playing lately. He truly has morphed into LeBron James under his former college coach. Given his current form (he’s scored at least 21 FanDuel points in five straight games), he’s my favorite play on the Thunder in terms of value.
I don’t have much interest in Carmelo Anthony as I question the upside at his price against Serge Ibaka. As crazy as it sounds, I’d almost rather pay down for Patrick Patterson or Jerami Grant off the bench for a cheaper price and hope they can come close to Carmelo’s output. With the full squad back and healthy I’ll admit this is risky given neither Patterson nor Grant have a clear path for heavy minutes anymore. But having played these Showdown type games since they’ve launched, that’s how you generally take one down. You bank on a bench or role player busting out of nowhere, so I think it’s worth a shot if you’re rolling out multiple teams. I also like Raymond Felton on DraftKings at just $2,200 as a punt play as he’s been getting decent run in the second unit. However, after giving it some thought, my preference if you’re going to punt is to punt with someone on the Raptors’ second unit. So I’m not going to list any of the Thunder second unit under secondary plays, but my favorites would be Jerami Grant, Raymond Felton and Patrick Patterson, in that order.
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 106.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | 53.4 | -4.5 | 36.2 | -1.6 | 1.48 | 34.2% | 2 | 6 | 3 | |||
| Corey Brewer | 10.6 | 21.2 | 14.5 | 16.2 | 0.73 | 13.4% | 19 | 4 | 22 | |||
| Paul George | 38.4 | -4.1 | 36.4 | -2.8 | 1.06 | 23.4% | 1 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Carmelo Anthony | 28.0 | -4.5 | 32.2 | -2.3 | 0.87 | 21.6% | 8 | 7 | 13 | |||
| Steven Adams | 31.7 | 1.9 | 32.5 | -5.5 | 0.98 | 14.5% | 10 | 19 | 14 | |||
| Jerami Grant | 17.4 | 3.9 | 20.7 | -0.9 | 0.84 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Corey Brewer, Paul George, Russell Westbrook
Secondary Plays – Steven Adams, Carmelo Anthony
Toronto Raptors
Notable Injuries
Update 12pm EST – Norman Powell now probable. Fred VanVleet has been ruled out so removing him from the plays below and adding Delon Wright as a secondary play.
Norman Powell (Doubtful)
On the Raptors side, DeMar DeRozan is the clear top option on this team. It’s somewhat difficult to fit both Westbrook and DeRozan, which I don’t hate, but because it forces you to cram in value this is more of a contrarian lineup build. DeRozan has the best matchup on paper and leads the team in both usage and minutes per game by a longshot. I’d much rather play DeRozan over Lowry at this point.
If you decide to fade DeRozan and Lowry but want exposure to the Raptors side, I’d probably do it via Jonas Valanciunas. He has a difficult matchup against Steven Adams but JoVal has immense tournament upside as he averages nearly 1.3 fantasy points per minute. Minutes are always a concern with him but you’ll know early on if this is a JoVal game.
The price of Serge Ibaka is $11,000 on FanDuel (18.3% of your salary) but only $7,700 on DraftKings (15.4% of your salary). I’m not a huge Serge Ibaka truther but this is a good matchup against Carmelo Anthony “defense.” I’d rather get my exposure to him over on DraftKings given the price difference.
OG Anunoby will likely start with Norman Powell doubtful and he’s very cheap. I don’t hate him as a punt but he’s a low usage player so it’s a risky punt. I’d probably rather take my chances with a player from the second unit over Anunoby. Fred VanVleet, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam or even Jakob Poeltl are more appealing options to me. I’d probably stagger my JoVal and Poeltl exposure (meaning I’d play them in different teams if you have multiple lineups) since they generally aren’t complementary pieces. This Raptors second unit is so deep and dangerous and that any one of these guys could go off, which speaks to why they sit atop the Eastern Conference Standings.
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 112.0 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.8 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | 35.0 | 0.5 | 32.1 | -0.6 | 1.09 | 22.0% | 10 | 5 | 8 | |||
| DeMar DeRozan | 38.1 | -6.4 | 34.1 | 0.1 | 1.12 | 28.7% | 19 | 22 | 20 | |||
| OG Anunoby | 12.4 | -5.0 | 20.5 | -1.1 | 0.60 | 10.8% | 14 | 9 | 5 | |||
| Serge Ibaka | 25.2 | -1.0 | 27.4 | 1.2 | 0.92 | 17.0% | 13 | 11 | 27 | |||
| Jonas Valanciunas | 26.9 | 13.7 | 22.6 | 2.8 | 1.19 | 18.7% | 2 | 2 | 20 | |||
| Jakob Poeltl | 17.5 | 0.1 | 18.4 | 0.5 | 0.95 | 12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||
| Fred VanVleet | 18.7 | 2.8 | 19.8 | 3.1 | 0.94 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas
Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka (DK), Kyle Lowry, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl (DK), Delon Wright
Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans – 6:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | Emeka Okafor | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 15 | DvP | 1 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries
Jaylen Brown (Out), Kyrie Irving (Questionable?), Marcus Smart (Out)
As of early Sunday morning I haven’t found an update on Kyrie Irving, so I’m calling him questionable. He missed Friday’s game but it sounds like there’s a small chance he could return for this game. Terry Rozier’s price dropped a bit after his last game and while I still don’t love the price, he’s my favorite tournament point guard on the slate simply because of the price (assuming Kyrie Irving is out). If Kyrie is in, I’m off the Rozier bandwagon. I still view him as a secondary play but a nice one for GPPs as I would think his price helps keep his ownership levels down. Shane Larkin continues to see minutes in the 15-20 minute range so he doesn’t seem to be a threat to eat into Rozier’s minutes.
Jayson Tatum had a disappointing 18 DraftKings point performance on Friday against the Magic. His price did drop because of the poor performance but he saw just an 18.5% usage rate in that game and he only took 8 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Al Horford took a team-high 18 field goal attempts in his return from his illness and didn’t miss a beat. With Horford back and in a fantastic matchup against the Pelicans, he would be my primary target on the Celtics. He played 31 minutes in his return and appears fine.
Marcus Morris remained in the starting lineup with Horford back, shifting Guerschon Yabusele back to the bench where he played just two minutes and wasn’t a factor. Morris was second in shot attempts last game with 15 and he grabbed 11 rebounds. He’s more expensive than Jayson Tatum but I think I rather prefer Morris over Tatum just knowing Morris tends to be more aggressive getting shot attempts.
I do want to mention Greg Monroe, who has been on fire off the bench lately. I prefer him on sites where you can play multiple centers but he’s gone for back-to-back 32+ DraftKings points. It’s noteworthy because he’s doing it in limited minutes and he did it with Al Horford back. I think he’s an elite tournament play and a way to differentiate yourself in a large-field tournament on this short slate.
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,500 | $7,800 | $14,000 | 38.5 | -7.7 | 32.2 | -9.4 | 1.20 | 29.5% | 15 | 20 | 23 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 30.5 | 0.2 | 0.83 | 16.3% | 27 | 26 | 2 |
| Marcus Morris | $6,300 | $6,000 | $12,100 | 22.7 | 4.6 | 26.1 | 6.6 | 0.87 | 19.9% | 17 | 26 | 30 |
| Al Horford | $6,900 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 32.3 | 2.1 | 31.7 | -2.5 | 1.02 | 17.7% | 26 | 20 | 1 |
| Aron Baynes | $4,000 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 15.4 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 2.6 | 0.86 | 14.4% | 20 | 15 | 16 |
| Terry Rozier | $7,900 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 22.8 | 10.0 | 24.9 | 9.4 | 0.92 | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Greg Monroe | $5,000 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 22.4 | 0.6 | 19.9 | -1.5 | 1.13 | 18.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Al Horford, Greg Monroe (GPP only on sites you can play multiple centers), Marcus Morris
Secondary Plays – Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries
None
The Pelicans are on the backend of a back-to-back and are coming off a tough loss to the Rockets. Rajon Rondo sat for rest and I am expecting him back. The Pelicans rolled out a 10-man rotation with Jrue Holiday leading the team with 38 minutes, so while there may be some fatigue it looked like the Pelicans’ coaching staff did their best to try and manage the workload.
On paper this is just not a good matchup for the Pelicans against the league’s best defensive team. But down Jaylen Brown, Kyrie Irving (maybe) and Marcus Smart, I’m willing to take some chances here. This is a Rajon Rondo #revengegame against the Celtics but in his last five meetings against them, he’s failed to hit 35 DraftKings points. Still, he’s only $5,500 on DraftKings and should have the freshest legs on the team, so I think he’s firmly in-play here.
Anthony Davis and James Harden are the top studs on this slate and I don’t think there’s enough value yet to jam both in and feel comfortable about the rest of your roster. I’ll be honest, I’m not sure which of the two will be more popular but I would rather play the lower owned guy. I just wish I knew how ownership would play out on this slate but I don’t have a great feel for it right now.
I do think playing both Davis and Jrue Holiday may be a bit contrarian given the matchup, so I don’t mind that stack in tournaments. Holiday will probably have to deal with Jayson Tatum defense which I fully respect, but point-per-dollar, Holiday is my favorite play on the Pelicans.
E’Twaun Moore is fine if you need a punt play and he’s one of the safer punt plays given he’ll likely see minutes in the low 30s, which is his typical role. I just don’t like playing small forwards against the Celtics. The problem is there aren’t any great pivots around his price range on this slate with his upside so while I’m listing him as a secondary play simply because I question his upside, he’s probably one of the safer ones for cash games if you’re looking in that $4K-ish price range.
I don’t know what to make of Nikola Mirotic, who has been in a huge funk. He’s only topped 20 DraftKings points once over his last five games and his minutes have been all over the place: 18, 31, 29, 24 and 24. It’s a bit of a concern so I feel he’s just tournament-only until we have more confidence that his shot will fall.
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 112.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $6,200 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 25.7 | 2.2 | 25.6 | 1.5 | 1.00 | 18.2% | 5 | 1 | 23 |
| Jrue Holiday | $9,000 | $7,900 | $14,800 | 37.5 | 4.7 | 36.6 | -0.9 | 1.03 | 21.9% | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 20.5 | -2.5 | 31.8 | -1.5 | 0.65 | 14.5% | 4 | 11 | 26 |
| Anthony Davis | $12,400 | $11,400 | $20,900 | 54.4 | 4.2 | 36.6 | -2.1 | 1.49 | 25.6% | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Emeka Okafor | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 18.3 | -0.3 | 16.7 | 2.0 | 1.09 | 12.9% | 7 | 5 | 1 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $5,700 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 29.6 | -5.0 | 27.0 | 0.3 | 1.10 | 20.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ian Clark | $3,700 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 18.7 | 7.1 | 0.63 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday
Secondary Plays – Nikola Mirotic (GPP), E’Twaun Moore, Rajon Rondo
Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 7:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 113.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Andrew Wiggins | Nemanja Bjelica | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 4 | DvP | 7 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 28 | 10 | 14 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |
Houston Rockets
Notable Injuries
None
Ryan Anderson returned on Saturday after a nine-game absence, playing 11 minutes off the bench. Meanwhile, Gerald Green has been a DNP-CD for the past two games. I’m assuming Anderson plays on this back-to-back as there were no reported setbacks and I could see him playing another 11-15 minutes off the bench as he continues to work his way back into game shape. His return also takes me off P.J. Tucker, who should continue to start but doesn’t have a high enough ceiling to make him very appealing in this offense.
James Harden and Chris Paul are clicking on all cylinders and the Rockets enter Sunday with the highest implied team total. I don’t mind pairing Harden and Paul here as both have elite matchups against the Timberwolves, who rank 19th and 18th in DvP against point guards and shooting guards, respectively. Harden had a 40% usage rate on Saturday and nearly triple-doubled. Both are elite plays on this slate.
One way to get contrarian on this slate and still get exposure to the Rockets is to use Clint Capela instead of Paul and Harden. Capela has scored at least 30 DraftKings points in five straight meetings against the Timberwolves, including two 46+ outings. We’ll discuss KAT on the other side shortly, but a Capela/KAT stack is intriguing on sites where you can play multiple centers.
I’d probably reserve Eric Gordon in tournaments as he has the upside to lift you to the top but he’s incredibly shooting dependent. If his shot isn’t going down he doesn’t do enough to make up for it with peripheral stats. Trevor Ariza is better suited as a cash game play as he’ll log 30+ minutes every night and comes with a safe floor.
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.0 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,000 | $7,800 | $14,300 | 40.9 | -7.7 | 31.9 | -1.5 | 1.28 | 25.6% | 16 | 19 | 21 |
| James Harden | $11,400 | $11,000 | $20,900 | 53.7 | -7.6 | 35.6 | -2.7 | 1.51 | 33.6% | 28 | 18 | 28 |
| Trevor Ariza | $4,800 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 24.0 | -4.8 | 34.5 | -0.4 | 0.70 | 13.1% | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,700 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 16.5 | 2.4 | 27.7 | 0.5 | 0.59 | 8.8% | 5 | 6 | 14 |
| Clint Capela | $7,900 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 34.9 | -3.8 | 27.4 | -1.5 | 1.27 | 17.0% | 27 | 4 | 21 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,100 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 25.8 | -0.9 | 31.4 | -2.1 | 0.82 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $3,800 | $3,200 | $6,500 | 16.3 | -0.8 | 26.5 | 0.2 | 0.62 | 10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Clint Capela, James Harden, Chris Paul
Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon (GPP)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Notable Injuries
None
Let’s discuss the elephant in the room: KAT has dominated this Rockets team lately. The chart blow shows Karl-Anthony Towns’ DraftKings points by game for the past seven meetings against the Rockets. Of course the one game he fails to reach his typical 60 DraftKings points is the game I roster a lot of him, but never mind that fact. It’s hard to ignore his domination of the Rockets, but his last outing is proof past results don’t necessarily mean future success. Do what you will with these numbers, but on a slate with Brow and Harden soaking up ownership (and salary cap), Towns could be overlooked. I love him in tournaments in case he returns to his usual ways of beast mode against the Rockets.
I have a hard time playing point guards against Chris Paul defense. He shut down DeAndre Liggins on Saturday, although maybe shutting down DeAndre Liggins is something anyone can do. Normally point guards against Paul would be an easy fade for me, but the industry dropped the price on Jeff Teague to the point where we have to at least consider it on a three-game slate. I’m listing him as a secondary play given the tempting price tag and the fact he’s been seeing an increase in usage with Jimmy Butler out, but he’s a GPP play only for me in this matchup.
I actually don’t mind the price tag on Andrew Wiggins on FanDuel ($6,200). This is the lowest price he’s been since the Jimmy Butler injury and he’s scored at least 25 FanDuel points in every game. Of course, he hasn’t hit 33 FanDuel points in any of those seven games, so there’s just not much of a ceiling either. He profiles mainly as a cash game play at this point. Surprisingly, it’s been teammate Nemanja Bjelica flashing the ceiling, as he’s played at least 32 minutes in every game he’s started since Butler’s injury. Bjelica has a better offensive rating and rebounding % compared to Wiggins, and that’s giving him that ceiling Wiggins is lacking.
Taj Gibson is serviceable at $5,500 on FanDuel and offers a safe enough floor to deploy on this slate if you need savings at the power forward position, especially with Gorgei Dieng not making a big enough impact to siphon minutes away from Gibson. But Gibson’s $4,900 price tag on DraftKings really caught my eye as it dropped $700 overnight and he’s still seeing heavy minutes. The last time he was this cheap was November 15, 2017. In other words this is the cheapest he’s been in four months. On DraftKings I think he offers some sneaky appeal at this price tag, especially if the Rockets roll out more Ryan Anderson in this game.
Jamal Crawford is probably the best punt bench player on this slate as he’s seen his role expand with the loss of Jimmy Butler as the primary scorer in the second unit. He’s a viable option if you roll out a stars and scrubs approach to fit in the Hardens and Brows of this slate.
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 109.7 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -3.7 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,800 | $5,900 | $11,500 | 30.8 | 2.2 | 33.0 | -1.6 | 0.93 | 20.2% | 7 | 7 | 2 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,200 | $6,100 | $11,900 | 28.8 | 1.0 | 36.2 | 0.9 | 0.80 | 21.1% | 15 | 16 | 18 |
| Nemanja Bjelica | $6,700 | $5,600 | $11,100 | 15.2 | 19.0 | 18.6 | 21.1 | 0.82 | 13.6% | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,500 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 26.4 | -3.5 | 33.6 | 0.5 | 0.79 | 13.2% | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,400 | $9,400 | $17,300 | 43.6 | 4.9 | 35.2 | 0.6 | 1.24 | 19.9% | 15 | 21 | 3 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 15.7 | 1.3 | 19.8 | 5.7 | 0.79 | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns, Jamal Crawford (if you need a punt), Taj Gibson (DK)
Secondary Plays – Nemanja Bjelica, Jeff Teague (GPP), Andrew Wiggins (Cash)
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Los Angeles Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220.5 |  | Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.0 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Maurice Harkless | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Austin Rivers | Lou Williams | Sindarius Thornwell | Tobias Harris | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 29 | 24 | 25 | 24 | DvP | 2 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 26 | 29 | 4 | 18 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 18 | 25 | 16 | 4 | 2 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
Notable Injuries
None
It’ll be interesting to see the ownership of Damian Lillard on this short three-game slate. With everyone paying up for Harden and Davis, starting your lineup with Lillard will probably already make it contrarian as I could see him being the lowest-owned of the studs. The Clippers are league-average against opposing point guards so this isn’t a daunting matchup for Lillard. If you’re one who likes to attack ownership in tournaments, getting exposure to Lillard probably makes sense. However on this slate I’m viewing him more as a secondary option when taking into account his salary, the matchup and the other plays on this slate (so I’m not saying Lillard is a bad player). It may burn me not tagging Lillard as elite but it’s because I see his teammate C.J. McCollum as the better point-per-dollar option. McCollum is much cheaper and comes with the better matchup. The Clippers rank 29th in DvP against opposing shooting guards and he’s been in good form lately, scoring at least 31 DraftKings points now in seven straight games.
I really like Al-Farouq Aminu in this spot. He remains cheap, the Clippers are among the bottom-third of the league in defending power forwards and I fully expect him to get heavy minutes to try and contain DeAndre Jordan and Tobias Harris. He’s my favorite way to get exposure to this Trail Blazers team on the cheap.
We’ll probably see some kind of timeshare between Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner. Both have been decent lately and both are cheap. I prefer Harkless over Turner if Harkless continues to start, but both are in-play as punt options on this slate.
Jusuf Nurkic is kind of like Jonas Valanciunas in that both can just go off at random times and in limited playing time, but you just never know when it will happen. As such, Nurkic profiles as a tournament-only play for me. In theory he should be needed to guard Jordan, and he did drop 43.5 FanDuel points against the Clippers when these teams last met, so the upside is there. He also had just 23.1 FanDuel points in the meeting before that. I just really worry about the potential downside, and on a site like FanDuel where you only get one center, there’s a big opportunity cost. I could easily see a guy like Ed Davis being relied upon, who I think makes for a sneaky tournament play as well.
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.3 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 3.7 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,800 | $9,700 | $17,900 | 43.2 | 2.6 | 36.5 | -0.3 | 1.18 | 29.3% | 16 | 15 | 26 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,700 | $7,100 | $13,300 | 33.4 | 2.3 | 36.1 | 0.1 | 0.92 | 24.8% | 25 | 29 | 29 |
| Maurice Harkless | $4,100 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 14.0 | 3.7 | 20.7 | 0.2 | 0.68 | 11.3% | 21 | 24 | 4 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $4,900 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 22.9 | -4.8 | 29.8 | -0.4 | 0.77 | 12.8% | 13 | 25 | 18 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,300 | $6,300 | $13,400 | 30.7 | 2.0 | 26.0 | -2.4 | 1.18 | 22.8% | 24 | 24 | 7 |
| Ed Davis | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.3 | 2.1 | 19.1 | 2.3 | 0.96 | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Al-Farouq Aminu, C.J. McCollum
Secondary Plays – Ed Davis (GPP), Damian Lillard, Maurice Harkless, Jusuf Nurkic (GPP), Evan Turner
Los Angeles Clippers
Notable Injuries
None
I’m going to keep this more brief than usual because I see a few things. There are only four plays I ever have interest in on the Clippers side: Lou Williams, DeAndre Jordan, Tobias Harris and Austin Rivers. Montrezl Harrell has been seeing his minutes decline, Milos Teodosic has been relegated to bench duty and Sindarius Thornwell just plays the role of Robin, the trusty sidekick to Batman who barely gets any important screen time. Additionally, the Trail Blazers are one of the best defensive teams this season and guard all the positions of the four guys I like really well. DeAndre Jordan is my favorite play on this team but all of them profile as secondary plays for me as I can’t see myself prioritizing any of them in my builds.
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.2 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Rivers | $6,400 | $5,800 | $11,200 | 26.8 | 5.8 | 33.5 | 3.5 | 0.80 | 19.7% | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| Lou Williams | $7,200 | $7,300 | $14,300 | 35.0 | -5.7 | 32.8 | 4.2 | 1.07 | 27.2% | 8 | 7 | 25 |
| Sindarius Thornwell | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 0.61 | 10.1% | 16 | 19 | 16 |
| Tobias Harris | $8,000 | $7,500 | $13,300 | 31.7 | 6.3 | 33.4 | 3.4 | 0.95 | 21.0% | 13 | 12 | 4 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $8,300 | $7,700 | $14,600 | 35.7 | 9.2 | 32.0 | 2.2 | 1.12 | 12.4% | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Montrezl Harrell | $4,100 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 18.8 | -4.0 | 16.0 | -1.2 | 1.17 | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – DeAndre Jordan, Tobias Harris, Austin Rivers, Lou Williams
Final Thoughts
1. I think roster construction starts with your decision on whether you want to roster James Harden or Anthony Davis. If you decide not to, do you want to start your roster with the next tier of Damian Lillard or Karl-Anthony Towns?
2. This slate sets up interestingly for tournaments on sites where you can roster multiple centers. There are a lot of centers on this slate who have massive upside but also some downside at their prices (Nurkic, KAT, Capela, even Greg Monroe).
3. How do we handle these teams with high-graded defenses like Boston and Portland? Boston has the top defensive efficiency in the league but is without several key players. Can the Pelicans take advantage of that or is Boston good enough to cover those losses? As for the Clippers, they have one of the higher implied team totals on this slate but I fully respect this Portland team. Am I wrong for dismissing these Clippers players as a bunch of secondary plays?
4. There just isn’t a lot of value on this slate given it’s only three games so you may be forced to play guys like Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless or Jamal Crawford. And it doesn’t feel pretty to play those guys.
Good luck, and may variance be on your side.