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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-22 23:59:18

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Los Angeles Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Cleveland Cavaliers
laclippersnba Vegas Total 202.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 98.50 Team Pace 95.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 20 6 4 4 1 Opp. Season 6 17 13 6 24
Last 3 Weeks 3 2 11 5 2 Last 3 Weeks 14 24 4 4 30

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 27-14 — Road: 12-7 — Last 10: 9-1

We have a pretty decent slate for a Thursday. Rather than the typical two or three-game slate, there are five on tap tonight. The first game should be a doozy. The Clippers have won nine of their last ten games and now head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production though, as the Clippers’ team total is much lower than their season average.

As mentioned above, this is a tough matchup to exploit for fantasy purposes. On the season, the Cavaliers are ranked fifth or better in all five of the defensive categories listed above. Blake Griffin has already been ruled out of the next two games, which means it will be the Chris Paul show for at least two more nights.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul

The Cavaliers are one of a handful of teams that I generally try to avoid taking players against. However, with Blake Griffin out and with point guards putting up fantasy points in bunches against Cleveland, Paul remains an elite play tonight. He has been in terrific form over the last five games, averaging 47.6 fantasy points.

FD — $9,800 — PG
DK — $9,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 24.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 38.8 | Last Five Games: 47.6

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan

Jordan missed two games with what he said was pneumonia. He didn’t show any signs of rust in his first game back though, as he finished with 38 fantasy points in 41 minutes against the Rockets. The Cavaliers have been tough on opposing centers this season, but Jordan gets most of his fantasy production on rebounds and easy buckets set up by Chris Paul. Jordan is a borderline elite play tonight, especially on DraftKings.

FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.4 | Last Five Games: 11.5
Min/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 39.6
FP/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 38.4

J.J. Redick

Redick would typically not be on my radar against the Cavaliers, but shooting guard is a thin position tonight. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 26.3 fantasy points per contest. He should see minutes in the mid-30s against J.R. Smith, who loves to shoot threes as much as he does.

FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 18.8
Min/Game — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 26.3

Jamal Crawford

Crawford’s price has come up across the industry, but he still deserves consideration tonight. Value is usually tough to come by on a short slate and tonight is no exception. Crawford’s minutes and production are both up over the last five games, as he has averaged 23.4 fantasy points in 31.1 minutes per contest.

FD — $4,400 — SG
DK — $4,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 17.8 | Last Five Games: 23.4

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 29-11 — Home: 15-2 — Last 10: 8-2

The Cavaliers have won eight of their last ten games and have an impressive 15-2 record at home. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but all of their starters played less than 32 minutes. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Clippers in what should be a competitive game throughout.

The Clippers have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 11th and 14th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Cavaliers’ team total is markedly higher than their season average, which is a plus. The biggest issue is that it has been tough to predict which of the three superstars are going to have a big night. Since Kyrie Irving has come back, they have all taken turns posting big outings. Irving is my least favorite of the three, as he will draw the pesky defense of Chris Paul.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

James was efficient in last night’s win over the Nets, but he wasn’t asked to do much in the second half. The game was well in hand by the end of the third quarter. James should see a full complement of minutes tonight against the Clippers, who don’t have anyone that can defend him. James offers a very high floor at his price point.

FD — $9,800 — SF
DK — $9,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.8 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 37.1
FP/Game — Season: 44.1 | Last Five Games: 42.5

Kevin Love

This is what Love does. When everyone is on him (the other night against the Warriors), he puts up duds. When he isn’t on many people’s radar (last night against the Nets), he puts up 38 fantasy points in only 31 minutes. His price is down and he should have a lot of success on the glass, as the Clippers have the fourth worst rebounding differential in the NBA.

FD — $6,900 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 16.3
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 28.8

Secondary Plays

NONE

Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

Detroit Pistons New Orleans Pelicans
detroitnba Vegas Total 204.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 98.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Tyreke Evans Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 16 26 12 20 29 Opp. Season 13 13 2 22 8
Last 3 Weeks 10 10 19 10 22 Last 3 Weeks 7 15 1 17 16

Detroit Pistons

Record: 23-19 — Road: 9-12 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons are coming off of a nice win against the Rockets last night, although it does come with an asterisk, as Dwight Howard left the game in the first minute of play. Tonight the Pistons head to New Orleans to take on a Pelicans’ defense that has struggled all season. The Pistons are only projected to score 101.5 points, but this should still be considered a favorable matchup.

The Pelicans have been awful defensively this season, ranking 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. New Orleans has been a bit better over the last three weeks, but this is still an exploitable matchup. For those of you wondering about Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson in back-to-back situations, they have averaged 33 and 29.6 minutes per game, respectively.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

The Rockets must have been fed up with all of the hack-a-Dwight going on. They decided to employ the same strategy with Drummond and he set an NBA record for the most free throws missed in a single game with 23. He was only 13-36 from the stripe. While he would be a much better fantasy option if he could make a free throw, he deserves consideration as an elite play tonight. The Pelicans are ranked 29th against centers this season.

FD — $8,800 — C
DK — $8,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.7 | Last Five Games: 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 41.5 | Last Five Games: 37.5

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

Jackson has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last three games. While that may look like a positive, I’m not sure that we can project him for more than 30 minutes tonight against the Pelicans. The matchup is a decent one and the upside is certainly there, but Jackson is a better tournament play than he is for cash games.

FD — $7,200 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 25.0
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 30.3

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

KCP is one of those players that you never feel completely confident in rostering. He plays a ton of minutes, but he has a low usage rate and often relies on blocks and steals for a large portion of his fantasy production. KCP is a decent mid-range option at shooting guard, but is by no means a must play.

FD — $5,900 — SG
DK — $5,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.5 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 24.8

Marcus Morris

Morris is in the same boat as KCP, although he puts up more duds. It’s always a risky proposition using Morris, especially in cash games. That said, he has been seeing all of the minutes that he can handle recently and he has responded nicely, averaging just under 25 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $5,200 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 15.0
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 36.7
FP/Game — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 24.4

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 14-27 — Home: 9-9 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pelicans have won six of their last ten games and are now 9-9 at home. Those two factors help explain why the Pelicans are 1.5-point favorites tonight against the Pistons. New Orleans has an implied team total of 103 points, which is 1.3 points higher than their season average.

The Pistons have been stout defensively this season, ranking ninth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back though, and Vegas is expecting a nice outing from the Pelicans’ offense. Eric Gordon is going to miss the next 4-6 weeks, after having surgery on his broken right ring finger.

Elite Plays

Jrue Holiday

With Eric Gordon out, Holiday is expected to start at point guard, with Tyreke Evans shifting to shooting guard. While both players will likely see a decrease in usage (because they are both ball-dominant guards), Holiday should see a nice boost in minutes. He has been in great form recently and is one of the top point guard targets in this five-game slate.

FD — $6,600 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.8 | Last Five Games: 25.9
Min/Game — Season: 25.1 | Last Five Games: 27.4
FP/Game — Season: 24.9 | Last Five Games: 31.3

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis

With a lack of value tonight, it is going to be tough to afford both Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. If I have to choose one, I’m going to side with the latter. Not only has Cousins been more productive, but he doesn’t have the same injury risk as Davis. That said, Davis is still a strong play tonight. He is coming off of one of his best gams of the season, scoring 35 points and grabbing seven rebounds against the Wolves.

FD — $10,300 — PF
DK — $10,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 43.5 | Last Five Games: 43.7

Tyreke Evans

On the surface, you would think that Eric Gordon injury would be beneficial for Evans. However, he is expected to slide over and start at shooting guard, which could cut into his usage in this offense. Evans still deserves consideration tonight against the Pistons, but is more of a secondary play in my eyes. I prefer Jrue Holiday at the cheaper price point.

FD — $7,100 — PG
DK — $7,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 22.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 22.1
FP/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 21.3

Norris Cole

Cole is expected to come off the bench tonight, but should still see a nice boost in minutes with Eric Gordon out. We can safely project him to see minutes in the upper-20s and if he is playing well, possibly in the lower-30s. He is a nice tournament play tonight, as his ownership level should be low against the Pistons.

FD — $4,000 — PG
DK — $4,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 17.6
Min/Game — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 25.7
FP/Game — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 17.9

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Denver Nuggets
memphisnba Vegas Total 195.5 denvernba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 96.8
Team Pace 95.60 Team Pace 97.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 26 29 16 23 21 Opp. Season 9 4 22 11 4
Last 3 Weeks 25 20 18 30 12 Last 3 Weeks 2 5 15 9 1

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 24-19 — Road: 8-12 — Last 10: 7-3

The Grizzlies have won seven of their last ten games and are now five games above .500 on the season. They draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Nuggets in Denver. The Grizzlies are listed as 2-point favorites tonight with their team total set at 98.8 points. That may not seem like a high team total, but it is 2.5 points above their season average.

The Nuggets have been one of the top teams to target players against in daily fantasy basketball this season. They are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Other than Brandan Wright, who has been out for more than a month, the Grizzlies will be at full strength tonight. With Matt Barnes and Jeff Green coming off the bench, I will be avoiding all of their wing players despite the favorable matchup.

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol

I went back and forth on whether Gasol should be listed as an elite play or a secondary play tonight. The way the salaries shake out, he is probably more of an elite play on DraftKings and more of a secondary play on FanDuel. He has been in terrific form over his last five games, averaging 39.1 fantasy points during that stretch. He also draws a fantastic matchup against Denver.

FD — $8,000 — C
DK — $7,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 23.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 38.8
FP/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 39.1

Secondary Plays

Mike Conley

Conley missed six games with an Achilles injury, but looked good in his first game back. He played 27 minutes against the Pelicans on Monday, finishing with 15 points and ten assists. He should see closer to 30 minutes tonight against the Nuggets, who just so happen to be one of the worst teams at defending point guards.

FD — $6,600 — PG
DK — $6,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 27.1
FP/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 31.2

Zach Randolph

Since entering the starting lineup, Randolph’s production has actually gone down. His minutes have been steady at around 30 per game though, and 30 minutes against the Nuggets’ frontcourt is never a bad thing for fantasy production.

FD — $6,300 — PF
DK — $6,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 18.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 29.3
FP/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 26.6

Denver Nuggets

Record: 16-26 — Home: 8-13 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nuggets have been playing better over the last few weeks. While their record may not show it, they have been much more competitive recently. They are only 2-point underdogs tonight against the Grizzlies at home. This is a tough matchup for fantasy production though, as evidenced by their team total of only 96.8 points.

The Grizzlies really struggled on the defensive end of the floor at the beginning of the year, but when you play at such a slow pace, eventually you will start to climb the defensive rankings. They are now ranked sixth in points allowed per game and seventh in fantasy points allowed per game. The one injury to keep our eye on here is Jameer Nelson. If he is unable to suit up, Emmanuel Mudiay would play all of the minutes that he could handle.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Danilo Gallinari

Gallinari had one bad outing against the Heat, but has otherwise been terrific over the last two weeks. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. The only reason that he isn’t an elite play tonight is his matchup. Tony Allen is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA and the Grizzlies have been a better defense overall in the last three weeks.

FD — $7,100 — SF
DK — $7,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 23.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 31.2

Emmanuel Mudiay

This pick hinges on the availability of Jameer Nelson. With Nelson out the last two games, Mudiay averaged 35 minutes and 26 fantasy points per contest. His price has come up a bit across the industry, but he could be considered an elite play tonight on FanDuel if Nelson is ruled out.

FD — $5,000 — PG
DK — $5,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 19.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 22.5

Gary Harris

If you need a cheap shooting guard tonight, you can certainly do worse than Harris. His minutes have been up recently, averaging 36.2 over his last five games. He should see minutes in the mid-30s again tonight, especially if Jameer Nelson is unable to suit up.

FD — $4,400 — SG
DK — $4,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 14.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 21.7

Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Sacramento Kings
atlantanba Vegas Total 218.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 218.5
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 108.8 Team Proj. 109.8
Team Pace 98.90 Team Pace 101.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Willie Cauley-Stein
Opp. Season 25 28 21 29 26 Opp. Season 12 21 18 12 22
Last 3 Weeks 23 23 2 21 13 Last 3 Weeks 16 28 13 18 18

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 26-17 — Road: 11-10 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hawks have won six of their last ten games, including a win over the Blazers last night in Portland. They have a quick turnaround, as they now head to Sacramento to take on the Kings. This game should be close and high-scoring, two attributes that we love to see in daily fantasy. The Hawks are projected to score 108.8 points, which is the second highest team total on the board. It is also 6.2 points higher than their season average.

The Kings are arguably the top team to target players against in daily fantasy basketball. While the Lakers have similar statistics defensively, they are involved in more blowouts. The Kings keep games competitive. With a boost in pace, the Hawks are in a great spot tonight. The Hawks do not have anyone listed on their injury report, but they do tend to rest starters on the second half of back-to-backs every once in a while.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

Millsap continues to post monter fantasy outings night in and night out. The most impressive part is that he has done it with limited minutes recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 40.8 fantasy points in 29.3 minutes per contest. He should be able to fill up all areas of the stat sheet tonight against the Kings.

FD — $8,700 — PF
DK — $8,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 29.3
FP/Game — Season: 38.0 | Last Five Games: 40.8

Secondary Plays

Al Horford

Horford is a bit expensive on FanDuel, but is very playable on DraftKings. While he will have to deal with DeMarcus Cousins on one end, he’ll have plenty of chances to score on the other. On the season, the Kings are ranked 26th against centers. This could be a good night to take the two-center approach on DK.

FD — $7,600 — C
DK — $6,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 30.4

Jeff Teague

Teague’s minutes scare me, but everything else checks out for him tonight. The production has been nearly identical on a points per minute basis, he just hasn’t been playing as many minutes over the last few weeks. While that is a concern, I had to list him as at least a secondary play, as the Kings are ranked 25th against point guards this season.

FD — $5,700 — PG
DK — $5,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 25.9
FP/Game — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 24.1

Kent Bazemore

Bazemore’s minutes had been way down recently, but he bounced back with a strong game last night against the Blazers. He finished with 33 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. If he sees 30 minutes again tonight, he should easily reach and exceed value against a Kings’ defense that is ranked 28th and 21st against shooting guards and small forwards.

FD — $5,000 — SG
DK — $5,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 25.0
FP/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 15.8

Thabo Sefolosha

Kyle Korver continues to be terrible. I’m not sure what happened, but he is having a down year. With Korver and Kent Bazemore both logging heavy minutes last night, we could see a little more Sefolosha tonight against the Kings. This is a nice matchup for him, as he should be able to create some turnovers and hopefully get some easy buckets in transition.

FD — $4,400 — SF
DK — $4,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.6 | Last Five Games: 11.3
Min/Game — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 26.3
FP/Game — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 21.6
h3. Sacramento Kings

Record: 18-23 — Home: 10-11 — Last 10: 6-4

The Kings picked up an easy win over the Lakers last night. They have now won six of their last ten games to climb back into the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Tonight’s game against the Hawks is expected to feature very little defense. The Kings are projected to score 109.8 points, which is the highest team total on the board.

The Hawks have been a slightly above-average defense this season, but with both teams playing in the second half of a back-to-back, it will likely take its toll on the defensive end of the floor. With such a high team total, all of the usual suspects are in play for the Kings.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins is an unstoppable force. When his mind is right, there are few players more dominant on the basketball floor. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in six of his last eight games, topping the 60 fantasy point mark three times during that stretch. Tonight he gets to face a Hawks’ team that has the worst rebounding differential in the NBA. Just like last night, Cousins is the top overall play on the board.

FD — $10,700 — C
DK — $10,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 29.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 45.2 | Last Five Games: 49.9

Rajon Rondo

Rondo got off to a quick start last night against the Lakers and ended up with a solid outing, scoring 39 fantasy points. He has now scored at least 33 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Tonight’s matchup against Jeff Teague and the Hawks isn’t quite as favorable, but Rondo doesn’t need a great individual matchup to play well. Most of his fantasy production comes from peripheral statistics anyway.

FD — $8,100 — PG
DK — $8,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 17.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 37.0 | Last Five Games: 34.0

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gay

I’ve been avoiding Gay for most of the season when the Kings have been healthy. His usage rate just isn’t high enough with both DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo on the floor. However, once Omri Casspi shifted back to a bench role, Gay’s production has increased (could just be a coincidence). Over his last five games, he is averaging 32.9 fantasy points per contest.

FD — $7,300 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 17.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 32.9

Willie Cauley-Stein

I’ve been avoiding Cauley-Stein recently because the minutes haven’t been there. However, last night he played 29 minutes and posted a double-double with 33 fantasy points. It feels a bit like chasing points tonight, but as I continue to mention, value is tough to come by. He is a serviceable punt against a Hawks’ team that doesn’t play small ball often.

FD — $3,600 — C
DK — $3,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.2 | Last Five Games: 13.0
Min/Game — Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 15.4
FP/Game — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 15.7

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns – 10:30 PM

San Antonio Spurs Phoenix Suns
sanantonionba Vegas Total 200.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd -14.5 Vegas Sprd 14.5
Team Proj. 107.5 Team Proj. 93.0
Team Pace 96.00 Team Pace 100.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Brandon Knight Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Markieff Morris Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 29 30 28 13 7 Opp. Season 5 1 1 1 3
Last 3 Weeks 30 30 29 13 28 Last 3 Weeks 1 1 8 3 8

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 36-6 — Road: 12-6 — Last 10: 10-0

The Spurs have won each of their last ten games, they are 12-6 on the road, and they are 36-6 overall. They are slowly catching up to the Warriors, which seemed like an impossible task only a month ago. The Spurs are listed as 14.5-point favorites tonight against the Suns. They are projected to score 107.5 points, which is the third highest team total on the board.

The Suns have been one of the best matchups to exploit in daily fantasy basketball this season. However, we all know that we should never trust Greg Popovich in a potential blowout. He loves to limit his starters minutes and with the way these two teams are playing, a blowout is very likely. Tony Parker has been ruled out of tonight’s game. Patty Mills should see the biggest boost in his absence.

Elite Plays

Patrick Mills

Mills is really the only Spurs’ player that is on my radar tonight in cash games. I don’t mind Kawhi Leonard and/or LaMarcus Aldridge in tournaments, but the Suns would need to keep the game close for them to pay off their salaries. Mills is projected to draw the start for Tony Parker. In three games without Parker this season, Mills has averaged 24.3 minutes, 10.7 points, 1.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 0.7 steals. That’s not bad for a player that is close to min-salary.

FD — $3,500 — PG
DK — $3,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 12.8
Min/Game — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 15.5
FP/Game — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 7.2

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard

Leonard’s production has been down a bit recently and it hasn’t been from a lack of playing time. The biggest difference has been his usage rate. It is down recently, partly thanks to the recent play of LaMarcus Aldridge. Leonard is worth a look in cash games on FanDuel (since his price is down and we have to roster two small forwards), but is a better tournament play on DraftKings.

FD — $7,600 — SF
DK — $8,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 18.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 36.9 | Last Five Games: 29.9

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge has played well recently, averaging 31.9 fantasy points in 30.8 minutes over his last five games. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Suns, who could be without a number of their bigs. The problem here is that with such a large spread, Aldridge and the starters could all end up playing less than 30 minutes.

FD — $7,200 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 21.7
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 31.9

Phoenix Suns

Record: 13-30 — Home: 9-12 — Last 10: 1-9

The Suns continue to lose games and they continue to be on the wrong end of blowouts. They have lost nine of their last ten games and draw the worst fantasy matchup in the entire NBA. The Suns are only projected to score 93 points. Not only is that the lowest team total on the board, but it is also a whopping 8.9 points lower than their season average.

There are very few hard-fast rules in DFS, but one that I try to stick with is not targeting players against the Spurs. It’s like avoiding pitchers in Coors Field (MLB is only a couple of months away!). The Spurs are ranked first or second in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Suns have four players listed as questionable tonight. Give a boost to whichever bigs end up playing tonight, although given the matchup, it would be hard to consider any of them elite options.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Brandon Knight

Knight is playing as many minutes as anyone in the NBA right now. Over his last five games, he is averaging 39.1 minutes. The production hasn’t exactly followed though, as he is only averaging 26.8 fantasy points during that stretch. He is more of a tournament play tonight against the stifling defense of the Spurs.

FD — $6,500 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 36.3 | Last Five Games: 39.1
FP/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 26.8

P.J. Tucker

This pick hinges on the availability of Markieff Morris, Jon Leuer, T.J. Warren, and Mirza Teletovic. For each player that is inactive tonight, Tucker would see a small boost in minutes. The Suns may need him to play 40 minutes tonight.

FD — $4,700 — SF
DK — $5,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.6 | Last Five Games: 11.2
Min/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 24.6

Devin Booker

Booker ended up saving my lineups a couple of nights ago. He ended up scoring 31 fantasy points in 40 minutes against the Pacers. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he should see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight, especially if T.J. Warren is ruled out.

FD — $4,300 — SG
DK — $5,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 18.5
Min/Game — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 12.5 | Last Five Games: 20.5

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious