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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-14 05:53:06

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Memphis Grizzlies at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Cleveland Cavaliers
memphisnba Vegas Total 200.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Spread 15.5 Vegas Spread -15.5
Team Total 92.3 Team Total 107.8
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- -3.2
Proj. Starter Andrew Harrison Tony Allen Troy Williams JaMychal Green Jarell Martin Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 21 26 6 4 11 DvP 4 9 1 8 1
DRPM -2.43 0.57 0.33 1.11 1.50 DRPM -0.12 0.76 -1.01 0.11 0.37

Memphis Grizzlies

For those of you that missed yesterday’s Grind Down, we’ve added a new statistic to the game and player tables called DRPM, which stands for Defensive Real Plus-Minus. This statistic measures a player’s estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions. Due to the number of drawbacks from using strictly DvP (small samples, outliers, bench players, etc.), DRPM can help us find the most favorable individual matchups. DRPM is not meant to replace DvP; rather the two can be used in conjunction. For simplification purposes, the DRPM listed in the tables is for that of the opponent. For instance, you can see that under Andrew Harrison, it shows a DRPM of -2.43, which is the grade for his defender, Kyrie Irving. The lower the DRPM is, the better matchup it will be to target.

There have been a number of surprises this season, but the Grizzlies have been the most impressive in my eyes. Despite playing without two of their best players for most of the season (Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons), they have won six games in a row and have a record of 17-8 overall. Memphis is one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and they also boast one of the league’s best defenses. Fantasy production is often hard to come by in games that they are involved in. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Cavaliers in Cleveland in a game that features a spread of 15.5 points. Marc Gasol has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which essentially means that the Grizzlies will have to face the defending champions on the road without their three best players.

Even though this game has the potential to turn into a blowout, there is plenty of value to be had on the Grizzlies’ side of the ball. In ten starts this season, Andrew Harrison is averaging 32.2 minutes and just under 20 fantasy points per game. The best way to attack the Cavaliers is with opposing point guards, as Kyrie Irving has one of the worst DRPM’s in the NBA at -2.43. This is also evident in the Cavaliers’ DvP ranking against point guards this season. Harrison doesn’t stand out as an elite play with all of the great point guard options in the slate, but he certainly deserves consideration in tournaments. Tony Allen and Zach Randolph have both played well recently, but this is the type of game where the veterans will be the first to ride the bench if it turns into a blowout. Memphis plays again tomorrow, so I’d rather lean on their younger players tonight. Troy Daniels has a true usage of 21.4% this season and could see upwards of 30 minutes tonight. His price is affordable across the industry. With Marc Gasol out, we can expect big minutes from JaMychal Green and Jarell Martin in the frontcourt. Martin grades out as the slightly better value, while Green has more upside. As strange as it sounds, Green could lead the Grizzlies’ starters in usage tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Andrew Harrison $4,200 $4,300 $7,700 0.64 27.6 2.1 17.8 0.7 19.5% 2.5% 21 -2.43
Tony Allen $5,100 $4,700 $7,100 0.78 26.3 4.9 20.4 5.5 18.1% 0.2% 26 0.57
Troy Williams $4,000 $3,700 $7,400 0.62 18.0 5.5 11.2 5.2 17.3% -4.3% 6 0.33
JaMychal Green $5,500 $5,800 $7,600 0.74 30.3 2.1 22.4 7.9 14.5% 3.3% 4 1.11
Jarell Martin $3,600 $3,000 $6,000 0.69 14.9 -1.6 10.3 0.7 17.0% -2.0% 11 1.50
Troy Daniels $4,300 $3,900 $7,100 0.63 21.0 4.9 13.3 -2.1 21.4% -0.2% 26 N/A
Zach Randolph $5,700 $5,100 $8,900 1.14 21.9 -2.1 25.0 -0.4 30.1% 1.7% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Jarell Martin, JaMychal Green (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Troy Daniels, Andrew Harrison, JaMychal Green (Cash)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The way the Eastern Conference is shaking out, the Cavaliers really only have one threat (Raptors) when it comes to the top seed. The Hawks and Celtics were both expected to be contenders this year, but they have put themselves in too deep of a hole to catch Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 17-5 on the season and are looking for their fifth win in a row tonight. Despite playing at an average pace, Cleveland is ranked third in points scored per game and 15th in points allowed per game. While I fully expect them to pick up another win tonight, it’s hard to find anyone worthy of fantasy consideration. This game features a 15.5-point spread and it will be a pace-down game for Cleveland. The Grizzlies have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA, ranking third in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. Given the fact that the spread is so high and that the Cavaliers play again tomorrow, we shouldn’t be surprised if they decide to rest LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, or Kevin Love. However, if all three are active, this is an easy team to fade in daily fantasy. The lethal combination of a difficult matchup and a potential blowout takes them out of consideration in a slate that features Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, and the big four from the Warriors.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $7,000 $7,200 $11,800 0.99 34.0 -0.8 33.6 -5.4 30.5% -4.0% 4 -0.12
J.R. Smith $3,500 $3,500 $8,000 0.51 29.5 2.6 15.2 -3.8 13.3% -5.0% 9 0.76
LeBron James $10,000 $9,800 $14,800 1.29 36.7 0.7 47.5 8.8 33.2% 1.3% 1 -1.01
Kevin Love $8,000 $7,800 $12,400 1.17 32.0 -0.8 37.6 1.3 25.9% 1.2% 8 0.11
Tristan Thompson $5,000 $4,900 $7,500 0.81 29.1 0.9 23.5 1.0 9.2% 0.2% 1 0.37

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Orlando Magic Atlanta Hawks
orlandonba Vegas Total 203.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 97.5 Team Total 105.5
Pace +/- 2.5 Pace +/- -2.2
Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 29 23 19 7 2 DvP 18 13 13 10 20
DRPM -2.09 0.02 1.88 3.83 2.26 DRPM -2.15 -1.11 -0.38 0.60 0.77

Orlando Magic

The Magic have lost three games in a row and are five games below .500 overall. They are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and they are only averaging 94.8 points per game. Orlando does have a solid defense, but it doesn’t really make a difference when you are scoring as many points as the Sixers every night. The Magic come into tonight’s game as 8-point underdogs against the Hawks in what should be a relatively slow paced game. Atlanta is not an ideal matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency this season. Even though the Magic have a low implied total, there could be some value that opens up later in the day. Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo are both listed as questionable. If either player is unable to suit up, it would give a boost to Serge Ibaka, Aaron Gordon, and either Vucevic or Biyombo (whichever one is active). If one or both players sit out, we can bump Ibaka and Gordon up to elite plays, even in a difficult matchup against the Hawks’ stout frontcourt. The other area of interest here is at point guard. The Hawks are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to the position and Dennis Schroder has a DRPM of -2.09 this season. Elfrid Payton makes a lot of sense as a low-owned tournament play. Evan Fournier is coming off of a big game against the Nuggets, but he will likely draw a matchup against Thabo Sefolosha, who is an excellent defender.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D.J. Augustin $3,900 $3,900 $7,400 0.75 20.3 2.0 15.3 4.0 23.2% -2.8% 29 -2.09
Evan Fournier $5,500 $5,700 $9,900 0.76 33.3 -2.8 25.5 2.4 23.9% 1.1% 23 0.02
Aaron Gordon $4,100 $4,300 $8,600 0.75 25.9 -0.2 19.4 -0.2 19.7% -0.6% 19 1.88
Serge Ibaka $6,200 $6,400 $9,600 0.90 30.4 -0.5 27.5 0.3 20.0% -0.4% 7 3.83
Bismack Biyombo $4,800 $5,200 $7,800 0.74 25.7 -0.6 19.0 -2.9 13.2% 1.4% 2 2.26
Nikola Vucevic $7,000 $5,900 $9,900 1.13 27.4 -2.6 31.1 -9.2 24.6% 3.5% 2 N/A
Elfrid Payton $5,100 $4,700 $8,700 0.86 28.7 -2.5 24.7 -5.9 23.9% 4.1% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Serge Ibaka and Aaron Gordon (if Nikola Vucevic and/or Bismack Biyombo are out)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have had a Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this season. After getting off to a hot start, they lost 11 of 12 games and have now bounced back with two wins in a row. If the regular season ended today, the Hawks would not make the playoffs. Atlanta should be able to keep it going in the right direction tonight, as they are listed as 8-point favorites against the Magic at home. Even though the Magic are a slow-paced team that is ranked sixth in points allowed per game, the Hawks have an implied total of 105.5 points tonight. Their total is the ninth highest in the slate and 4.7 points above their season average. Kent Bazemore is expected to return to the lineup tonight, which should send Tim Hardaway Jr. back to the bench.

The Magic have not fared well against opposing point guards this season, ranking 18th in fantasy points allowed. Dennis Schroder is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 34.9 minutes and 37.3 fantasy points in his last three games. D.J. Augustin is not a great defender by any means and Schroder should be able to continue his hot streak tonight at home. With Kent Bazemore back in the fold, it basically ends the run for Tim Hardaway Jr. as a viable punt play. It may also cut into the minutes of Thabo Sefolosha and Kyle Korver. Sefolosha has played well enough that he could still see 28-30 minutes though, putting him firmly in play on FanDuel at a price of $4,300. Serge Ibaka is an above-average defender, but Paul Millsap is a mis-match for most big men. His ability to knock down shots and take players off the dribble makes him a tough cover for anyone. Millsap is averaging 47.3 fantasy points in his last three games and is worth a look against this bad rebounding team. Dwight Howard has flashed some upside this season, but his minutes are too inconsistent to ever consider using in cash games. I would, however, give him a small boost if Bismack Biyombo is ruled out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,900 $6,200 $10,400 0.94 30.0 4.9 28.1 9.2 29.4% -0.9% 18 -2.15
Kent Bazemore $4,200 $4,600 $8,000 0.78 27.0 -9.1 21.2 -13.7 21.8% 2.2% 13 -1.11
Thabo Sefolosha $4,300 $4,600 $6,700 0.79 25.1 5.4 19.8 6.4 14.3% -0.5% 13 -0.38
Paul Millsap $8,300 $7,900 $12,900 1.07 33.0 3.5 35.5 11.8 24.5% -0.2% 10 0.60
Dwight Howard $7,600 $6,900 $12,500 1.15 28.7 -1.2 32.9 -1.4 20.0% -1.8% 20 0.77
Kyle Korver $3,700 $3,900 $7,300 0.55 28.4 4.5 15.7 4.7 14.0% -0.7% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap (DK), Thabo Sefolosha (FD)

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap (FD), Thabo Sefolosha (DK), Dwight Howard (GPP)

Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors New Orleans Pelicans
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 225.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 225.5
Vegas Spread -11.0 Vegas Spread 11.0
Team Total 118.3 Team Total 107.3
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- 3.7
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevon Looney Kevin Durant Draymond Green Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Buddy Hield Solomon Hill Anthony Davis Alexis Ajinca
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 26 15 21 28 18 DvP 17 18 10 23 9
DRPM -0.45 -1.65 0.64 2.30 -0.18 DRPM -0.99 -2.48 0.26 1.89 3.79

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors own the best record in the NBA at 21-4. They have the best offense in basketball, which isn’t surprising when you have three of the best shooters in the league. Tonight’s game against the Pelicans has a spread of only 11 points. While this seems low at first glance, this is the Warriors’ fifth road game in seven nights. From a scheduling standpoint, that is absolutely brutal. I still expect Golden State to come out firing in this one, but the game may be closer than most people would expect. In terms of their matchup, the Warriors get a green light against a Pelicans’ defense that is ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential this season. Golden State has an implied total of 118.3 points, which is easily the highest in the slate.

Zaza Pachulia has been ruled out of tonight’s game. While his absence doesn’t have a big impact on fantasy production, it solidifies Draymond Green minutes and gives Kevin Durant a slight bump in his rebounding projection. With a spread of only 11 points and an implied total of 118.3 points, all four of the Warriors’ superstars are in play. Stephen Curry hasn’t been as productive this season in terms of fantasy points, but he has a true usage rate of 30% and the Pelicans are ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Klay Thompson isn’t exactly a consistent cash game target, but is always a great tournament play. He should get plenty of open looks against E’Twaun Moore, who has a DRPM of -1.65 this season. Durant is too cheap on DraftKings at only $9,400. Despite his recent shooting slump, he is still averaging 46.5 fantasy points per game this season. In his last four meetings against Anthony Davis, Green has scored 40.9, 32.7, 36.4, and 35.2 fantasy points. He is a high-floor power forward that makes sense in both cash games and tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,300 $8,400 $13,900 1.20 33.3 -0.7 40.0 -4.7 30.0% -3.8% 26 -0.45
Klay Thompson $6,600 $6,500 $10,500 0.86 33.9 -1.3 29.0 -6.4 24.6% -2.1% 15 -1.65
Kevon Looney $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.96 8.5 2.2 8.2 -1.4 12.6% -0.6% 21 0.64
Kevin Durant $10,000 $9,400 $15,100 1.35 34.4 0.2 46.5 -8.0 27.5% -0.3% 28 2.30
Draymond Green $7,800 $7,500 $12,700 1.12 32.9 -1.0 36.8 -5.3 19.2% -0.2% 18 -0.18
Andre Iguodala $3,800 $3,400 $7,500 0.68 24.8 1.6 16.9 0.5 12.5% 2.4% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Draymond Green, Kevin Durant (DK), Stephen Curry (DK), Klay Thompson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant (FD), Stephen Curry (FD), Klay Thompson (Cash)

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have been a completely different team since Jrue Holiday returned to the lineup. Even though they are still nine games below .500 on the season, they have been much more competitive in the last few weeks. They draw a pace-up matchup against the Warriors in a game that features an over/under of 225.5 points. If the Pelicans can keep this one within striking distance, it will be one of the top teams to stack in both cash games and tournaments. Golden State is efficient defensively, but they play at such a fast pace that they have allowed the 12th most points per game this season. New Orleans has an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate of 4.8 points above their season average.

Jrue Holiday returned from his three-game absence and scored 33.1 fantasy points in 40 minutes of action against the Suns on Sunday night. If the Pelicans are willing to play him 40 minutes in his first game back, then obviously he should be considered 100% healthy. He draws a favorable matchup against the Warriors, who are ranked 17th against point guards this season. Even if he sees Klay Thompson, I’m not overly concerned. Thompson has not been a good defender this season, as he has a DRPM of -2.48, which is the worst mark on the Warriors. With Holiday back in the mix, we can safely avoid the likes of Buddy Hield, Langston Galloway, and Solomon Hill. Tim Frazier did post a triple-double the other night with Holiday playing alongside him, but I won’t be chasing those points tonight. Anthony Davis is averaging 54 fantasy points per game this season with a true usage rate of 31.3%. In his last two games against the Warriors at home, he has scored 76.9 and 51 fantasy points. Davis is an elite play in all formats tonight, although in a vacuum (taking salary and positional differences out of the equation), I slightly prefer Russell Westbrook.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $7,000 $6,100 $10,000 0.99 29.5 10.1 29.1 4.0 28.9% -2.3% 17 -0.99
Buddy Hield $3,700 $3,300 $7,600 0.69 17.7 10.1 12.3 3.5 22.3% -3.0% 18 -2.48
Solomon Hill $3,600 $3,400 $7,700 0.56 27.5 1.0 15.4 0.6 11.3% 2.9% 10 0.26
Anthony Davis $11,900 $11,300 $16,200 1.41 38.4 4.0 54.0 -13.7 31.3% -5.0% 23 1.89
Alexis Ajinca $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.76 13.4 1.4 10.3 2.8 16.4% 4.5% 9 3.79
Tim Frazier $5,600 $6,200 $8,100 0.86 31.1 3.1 26.7 9.7 22.6% 0.4% 17 N/A
Terrence Jones $4,500 $4,200 $7,500 0.87 24.6 -1.5 21.4 -5.3 19.0% 0.1% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (FD)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Chicago Bulls
minnesotanba Vegas Total 207.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 100.5 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 9 9 14 24 20 DvP 23 4 15 11 14
DRPM -0.41 0.55 1.42 1.97 0.53 DRPM 0.17 -2.43 -2.52 2.34 -1.87

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season. With a wealth of young talent and a good coach, many expected them to push for a spot in the playoffs this season. The postseason may be a pipe dream at this point, as they have lost eight of their last ten games and are 6-18 overall. Despite the poor record, the Wolves continue to get love from the oddsmakers in Vegas. They are only 6.5-point underdogs tonight against the Bulls in Chicago. This is not an ideal matchup for fantasy production though, as they Bulls are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Wolves have an implied total of only 100.5 points, which is the third lowest in the slate and 3.4 points below their season average.

It’s difficult to find a favorable matchup when looking at the Wolves’ starting five. Ricky Rubio has the best individual matchup against Rajon Rondo, but I don’t get excited about targeting point guards that have such a low usage rate. When Gorgui Dieng has a similar usage rate as you, that’s probably not a good sign. Zach LaVine doesn’t have a great matchup on paper, but his athleticism should be advantageous in a matchup against an aging Dwyane Wade. LaVine has consistently seen 40+ minutes in the last couple of weeks and appears to be a safe play in all formats tonight. I try to avoid small forwards against Jimmy Butler whenever possible, so Andrew Wiggins is an easy fade even at his discounted price point. Dieng has the best matchup from a DvP standpoint and the worst individual matchup from a DRPM standpoint. Given the fact that Taj Gibson is a good defender and that the Bulls are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, I’m not going to have a ton of Dieng exposure. Karl-Anthony Towns is always on my radar in tournaments. He is averaging 40 fantasy points per game this season and he has one of the highest true usage rates (26.8%) of any center in the league.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $5,300 $4,700 $8,500 0.73 30.5 -0.5 22.2 -2.5 17.1% 0.4% 9 -0.41
Zach LaVine $6,200 $6,300 $10,300 0.77 37.4 1.4 28.8 3.6 22.9% 1.3% 9 0.55
Andrew Wiggins $5,900 $6,000 $10,500 0.82 36.3 -1.8 29.7 -3.3 27.8% -0.9% 14 1.42
Gorgui Dieng $5,500 $5,600 $10,100 0.83 31.3 0.7 26.0 -1.2 16.3% 0.4% 24 1.97
Karl-Anthony Towns $8,800 $8,600 $13,600 1.15 34.9 0.3 40.0 -4.4 26.8% -3.6% 20 0.53

Elite Plays – Zach LaVine

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio (DK), Gorgui Dieng (FD), Karl-Anthony Towns

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are looking for their third win in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Wolves. Chicago is ranked below the league average in pace of play and points scored per game, but they do boast a top five defense. Their matchup against the Wolves is an exploitable one, as Minnesota is ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. Chicago comes into the game as 6.5-point favorites with an implied total of 107 points. Their team total isn’t the highest in the slate, but it is four points above their season average of 103 points scored per game. Rajon Rondo tweaked his ankle at shoot-around this morning and is being listed as a game-time decision. If he is unable to suit up, Jerian Grant would likely draw the start at point guard.

There are a number of exploitable individual matchups here, as Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns all have negative DRPM’s this season. Dwyane Wade may not have the elite minute upside that he used to, but he is averaging 36 fantasy points in his last three games and is still only $6,600 on DraftKings. Jimmy Butler has taken over as the Bulls’ leader on both ends of the floor and draws a nice matchup against Wiggins, who has struggled on the defensive end of the floor this season. On a night when everyone will be paying up for Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis, Butler makes a great pivot in tournaments. Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez have been viable cash game targets this season, although both are averaging fewer than 29 minutes per game. They are secondary options at their respective positions. Last but not least, we have the Bulls’ point guard situation. If Rajon Rondo is ruled out, Jerian Grant would become a great value at point guard. In three spot starts this season, he is averaging 27.7 minutes and just over 20 fantasy points per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,000 $5,900 $9,500 0.88 31.3 4.0 27.5 -3.9 21.6% -2.5% 23 0.17
Dwyane Wade $7,300 $6,600 $10,600 1.03 31.6 2.8 32.5 3.5 29.9% 0.9% 4 -2.43
Jimmy Butler $9,000 $8,700 $13,100 1.15 36.4 3.5 41.8 0.9 29.1% -1.7% 15 -2.52
Taj Gibson $5,500 $5,000 $8,900 0.89 28.7 -1.1 25.4 -2.2 18.8% 0.5% 11 2.34
Robin Lopez $5,100 $4,800 $8,600 0.83 28.4 2.0 23.6 -2.1 16.3% -4.0% 14 -1.87
Nikola Mirotic $4,200 $3,900 $7,900 0.84 22.5 -0.2 18.9 -0.3 18.9% -2.7% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler (GPP), Jerian Grant (if Rajon Rondo is out)

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (Cash), Dwyane Wade (DK), Robin Lopez (DK)

New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Phoenix Suns
newyorknba Vegas Total 219.0 phoenixnba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 110.8 Team Total 108.3
Pace +/- 5.0 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 24 23 27 20 15 DvP 11 26 17 8 28
DRPM -0.77 -2.07 0.72 -0.26 2.09 DRPM -2.29 0.03 -0.39 0.21 1.78

New York Knicks

The Knicks have won seven of their last ten games and are currently sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw one of the top two matchups in all of fantasy basketball tonight, as they get to square off against a Suns’ team that is ranked second in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. We should consider the Suns the anti-Jazz, as basically everyone is in play when they face Phoenix. The Knicks have an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the second highest in the slate and six points above their season average. New York has the highest projected point differential on the board. The best part is that the game features a spread of only 2.5 points, so we can expect the starters from both teams to see a full complement of minutes.

Derrick Rose caught fire in his first game back from injury, scoring 25 actual points against the Lakers on 12-of-16 shooting. The biggest knock on Rose this season has been the peripheral statistics, as he typically doesn’t add a lot of value in the other areas of the stat sheet. I’m willing to overlook that tonight against a Suns’ defense that is ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. Rose is an elite GPP play as a pivot off of Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook. Courtney Lee isn’t the worst value play on the board, but that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. If I’m paying down at shooting guard, I’d rather take a shot on Leandro Barbosa or Troy Daniels. Carmelo Anthony grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar plays in the slate, which says a lot given the fact that he’s price in the mid-$7,000 range on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Everyone will be trying to pay up for the superstars tonight, but don’t forget about Anthony in an uptempo game. Kristaps Porzingis had not one, not two, not three… that was going to take too long. He had seven blocks against the Lakers on Sunday. His price has come up across the industry, but he makes a nice pivot off of Anthony Davis in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,800 $6,300 $9,500 0.90 32.0 1.9 28.9 2.7 27.4% -2.5% 24 -0.77
Courtney Lee $4,000 $3,900 $7,100 0.58 30.2 2.9 17.5 3.0 14.4% -1.3% 23 -2.07
Carmelo Anthony $7,800 $7,700 $12,400 1.03 33.9 -1.5 34.9 -1.5 29.0% 0.3% 27 0.72
Kristaps Porzingis $8,000 $7,600 $12,000 1.02 34.2 0.6 34.8 0.7 23.6% -0.3% 20 -0.26
Joakim Noah $4,400 $3,900 $8,000 0.91 22.0 -1.0 20.0 -3.6 13.1% -0.7% 15 2.09
Willy Hernangomez $3,800 $3,400 $6,200 0.97 13.4 4.0 13.0 10.1 19.4% -1.0% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose (GPP), Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (Cash), Kristaps Porzingis (Cash)

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because they push the pace of play and rarely play defense. The Suns may have one of the worst records in the NBA, but they are only 2.5-point underdogs tonight at home against the Knicks. This is a great game environment for both teams and there should be plenty of fantasy production to go around if the game stays close. Phoenix has an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and 1.5 points above their season average. T.J. Warren was originally expected to play tonight, but it sounds like he is closer to doubtful than questionable at this point. P.J. Tucker should draw another start at small forward.

The Suns are always a tough team to predict when it comes to fantasy production. Earl Watson has an inconsistent rotation and their players in general are fairly inconsistent anyway. For that reason, I have used the Suns very sparingly in cash games this season. Eric Bledsoe has shown a very high ceiling, scoring at least 45 fantasy points in six of his last ten games. His minutes have been all over the map, but he draws an excellent matchup against Derrick Rose, who has one of the worst DRPM’s among point guards this season. Devin Booker makes a nice tournament play in a slight where he should be less than 15-20% owned. Targeting shooting guards against the Knicks has been a profitable strategy in daily fantasy so far this season. Assuming T.J. Warren is in fact out tonight, P.J. Tucker makes an intriguing punt play at small forward. He has both a low floor and a high ceiling, but I expect him to play a lot of minutes, as he is the Suns’ best hope of containing Carmelo Anthony. Tyson Chandler is averaging over 30 minutes and over 28 fantasy points in his last three games and figures to be a popular play tonight at home. Leandro Barbosa is also getting a lot of buzz around the industry, as he has taken 30 shots in his last two games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,500 $8,000 $11,200 1.10 32.2 1.5 35.3 8.6 29.0% 3.8% 11 -2.29
Devin Booker $5,800 $5,700 $10,400 0.80 32.9 -0.6 26.2 -1.6 26.6% -0.2% 26 0.03
P.J. Tucker $4,400 $4,100 $7,900 0.64 25.1 8.8 16.1 3.8 11.6% 0.6% 17 -0.39
Marquese Chriss $3,500 $3,000 $6,800 0.73 15.6 -0.8 11.5 1.0 19.2% -0.6% 8 0.21
Tyson Chandler $5,300 $4,900 $9,000 0.85 27.2 2.9 23.0 5.3 10.4% 0.9% 28 1.78
Brandon Knight $4,400 $4,400 $7,800 0.81 24.5 -3.3 19.8 -0.4 26.9% -3.5% 26 N/A
Leandro Barbosa $3,800 $3,300 $6,000 0.77 14.2 10.6 10.9 11.4 19.3% 3.2% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Tyson Chandler

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker (GPP), P.J. Tucker, Leandro Barbosa

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious