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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-31 00:05:05

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Detroit Pistons New York Knicks
detroitnba Vegas Total 198.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 98.0
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 96.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 11 17 7 4 21 Opp. Season 8 15 2 23 10
Opp. Last 7 26 4 26 23 29 Opp. Last 7 11 24 5 6 7

Detroit Pistons

Record: 17-14 — Road: 7-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons have lost five of their last ten games, but are still three games above .500 on the season. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks. This game is expected to be played at a slow pace, but the Pistons are projected to score 100 points. This is one of the two games that has a spread less than five points.

The Knicks have been mediocre defensively this season. They are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and 16th in defensive efficiency. The Pistons will be at full strength tonight, with the exception of Jodie Meeks and possibly Brandon Jennings, who has yet to appear in a game this season.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

Drummond is coming off of a strong five-game stretch where he averaged 47.8 fantasy points per game. He is the premier play at center tonight, although value is hard to come by. When it comes to superstars, it’s going to be hard to fit more than one or two in your lineup. Drummond draws a great matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 21st against centers this season.

FD — $9,700 — C
DK — $9,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 39.0
FP/Game — Season: 43.9 | Last Five Games: 47.8

Reggie Jackson

I typically only target Jackson in tournaments, but I may have to make an exception tonight. He has played well all season, averaging 33.9 fantasy points per game. His minutes are always in question, but he should see low-30’s tonight in a close game against the Knicks.

FD — $7,500 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.6 | Last Five Games: 26.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 33.9 | Last Five Games: 33.0

Secondary Plays

Marcus Morris

Morris is a decent cash game option tonight. There are few players that average more minutes per game this season. While his matchup against Carmelo Anthony is less than appealing, he offers a high floor in a game where he should play 35+ minutes.

FD — $5,600 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 15.0
Min/Game — Season: 36.8 | Last Five Games: 39.7
FP/Game — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 23.3

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

KCP is also among the league leaders in minutes per game at 37.6 this season. He has been up and down this season, but he is averaging 24.8 fantasy points in his last five games. His price is a little expensive though, which is why he is more of a secondary play tonight against the Knicks.

FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,200 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.5 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 37.6 | Last Five Games: 39.2
FP/Game — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 24.8

New York Knicks

Record: 14-18 — Home: 7-8 — Last 10: 4-6

The Knicks have lost six of their last ten games and have fallen to 14-18 on the season. They will look to bounce back tonight against the Pistons at home. This isn’t a great matchup for fantasy production though. The Knicks are only projected to score 98 points tonight, which is the sixth highest of the ten teams in action.

The Pistons are an above-average team defensively. On the season, they are ranked 14th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Knicks’ team total is right around their average points scored per game this season, but there aren’t many standout fantasy options in this one. Arron Afflalo, Lance Thomas, and Kyle O’Quinn are decent punt options in tournaments.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

Whenever there is more than a $1,000 gap between a player’s price on FanDuel and DraftKings, he is going to be a good value on the cheaper of the two. Porzingis is a bargain on FanDuel at $6,200, especially considering the fact that he draws a favorable matchup against Ersan Ilyasova.

FD — $6,200 — PF
DK — $7,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 21.0
Min/Game — Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 30.4

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Anthony has played well in his last five games, averaging 37.9 fantasy points per game. The issue that I have with Anthony is his matchup and the alternatives at small forward. It’s hard to justify paying up for Anthony when Kevin Durant and LeBron James are both in such favorable matchups.

FD — $8,600 — SF
DK — $8,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.0 | Last Five Games: 25.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 36.3 | Last Five Games: 37.9

Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM

Milwaukee Bucks Oklahoma City Thunder
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 203.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 95.3 Team Proj. 108.3
Team Pace 95.80 Team Pace 98.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 21 12 5 7 2 Opp. Season 9 22 27 25 11
Opp. Last 7 12 16 20 24 1 Opp. Last 7 28 29 17 16 25

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 12-20 — Road: 3-14 — Last 10: 3-7

The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 12-20 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. The Bucks are the largest underdogs on the board, as the spread is set at 13 points. Milwaukee is only projected to score 95.3 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

The Thunder were a mediocre team defensively earlier in the season, but they have really turned it on recently. They are now ranked tenth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jerryd Bayless played 27 minutes in his first game back from injury last night, but it appears that he will play in back-to-backs. Greivis Vasquez is still out with his ankle injury and John Henson will dress for tonight’s game, but he is not expected to play.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

Monroe is a frustrating option in daily fantasy because his minutes have not been consistent this season. His price on DraftKings ($6,600) is enticing, but he has averaged less than 29 minutes in his last five games. He also draws a tough matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked second against centers this season.

FD — $7,600 — C
DK — $6,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 28.7
FP/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 29.9

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 21-10 — Home: 14-4 — Last 10: 8-2

The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games and are now 21-10 on the season. They draw a fairly easy matchup tonight against the Bucks, who just can’t seem to find their footing. Oklahoma City is projected to score 108.3 points tonight, which is the highest team total on the board. The biggest concern here is the potential for a blowout.

Even though the Bucks play at a slow pace, they are still a bottom ten defense in terms of points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. The Thunder should have no problem scoring points tonight. The problem is that they are 13-point favorites at home.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

Blowouts are always tough to predict in the NBA. The Thunder were large favorites against the Nuggets on Sunday, yet they got down early and both Westbrook and Kevin Durant were forced to play big minutes. Westbrook is the top overall play at point guard, but this Bucks’ team has been awful. The starters may find themselves on the bench in the fourth quarter.

FD — $10,600 — PG
DK — $10,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 29.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 34.5
FP/Game — Season: 48.8 | Last Five Games: 47.8

Secondary Plays

Kevin Durant

Durant is in the same boat as Russell Westbrook. They both find themselves in favorable matchups, but they both carry some risk in a potential blowout. Even though LeBron James has not played well recently, I prefer him over Durant at small forward.

FD — $10,100 — SF
DK — $10,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 43.9 | Last Five Games: 44.6

Serge Ibaka

Ibaka is one of those players that you never really feel comfortable rostering. He has nice upside, but he also puts up a dud every now and then. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked 25th against power forwards this season. Milwaukee is also one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA.

FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $6,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 16.3
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 25.5

Enes Kanter

The Under-Kanter has scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last three games. It’s always hard to bank on a player to reach value when he plays 20 minutes per game, but he could be worth a look in tournaments. Kanter may see a few extra minutes if this game gets out of hand early.

FD — $5,000 — C
DK — $4,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 20.2
Min/Game — Season: 20.5 | Last Five Games: 22.3
FP/Game — Season: 22.1 | Last Five Games: 28.3

Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Houston Rockets
atlantanba Vegas Total 208.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 102.8 Team Proj. 105.3
Team Pace 98.60 Team Pace 99.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 14 19 28 30 18 Opp. Season 20 13 20 10 20
Opp. Last 7 18 18 21 21 16 Opp. Last 7 10 17 19 1 23

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 20-13 — Road: 8-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hawks have won six of their last ten games and are now 20-13 on the season. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, but that shouldn’t be too big of a concern. They are projected to score 102.8 points tonight against the Rockets in Houston.

The Rockets have not fared well on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Thabo Sefolosha could be a sneaky play at small forward tonight. He will likely see a few extra minutes, as he will be tasked with defending James Harden. Sefolosha will likely cut into the minutes of Kyle Korver, who isn’t a terrible punt at shooting guard.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

Millsap will likely be the chalk play tonight at power forward. He is a little expensive on FanDuel, but he is coming off of a monster fantasy outing against the Pacers last night. He draws an even better matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked dead last against power forwards this season.

FD — $8,300 — PF
DK — $7,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 35.4

Kent Bazemore

Bazemore has played well as a starter this season, averaging 12.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. His price is still affordable across the industry and there are few more favorable matchups than the Rockets. He is a strong play on both FanDuel (SG) and DraftKings (SF).

FD — $5,400 — SG
DK — $5,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 13.0
Min/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 30.1
FP/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 23.6

Secondary Plays

Al Horford

Horford isn’t my favorite play at center tonight, but if you are fading Andre Drummond, then you are left with the likes of Horford, Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol, and Greg Monroe. Horford should see around 30 minutes against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. He’s a safe cash game option tonight.

FD — $6,900 — C
DK — $6,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 26.2

Jeff Teague

Teague’s price continues to come down, making him an awfully intriguing option at point guard against the Rockets. Many people are harping on Patrick Beverley defense this season, but Houston has been much better at defending point guards recently – sixth in fantasy points allowed over the last seven days.

FD — $6,100 — PG
DK — $6,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 29.5

Houston Rockets

Record: 16-16 — Home: 10-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Rockets have won six of their last ten games and have fought their way back to .500 on the season. Tonight they host the visiting Hawks, who are playing their second game in as many nights. The Rockets are projected to score 105.3 points tonight, which is the second highest team total on the board.

The Hawks have not been as stout defensively as they were last season. They are ranked between 10th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Terrence Jones is not expected to play tonight, but his absence doesn’t make a big fantasy impact. Ty Lawson is an interesting tournament punt. He has averaged 18.5 fantasy points in 25 minutes over his last five games.

Elite Plays

James Harden

Harden has been good, but not great recently, averaging 41.6 fantasy points per game. His minutes have been down a bit recently and we should expect him to play 35-36 minutes per game moving forward. When ranking superstars, I’d put Harden first for cash games (no blowout risk) and Russell Westbrook first for tournaments (higher ceiling).

FD — $10,500 — SG
DK — $10,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 26.3
Min/Game — Season: 38.1 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 46.2 | Last Five Games: 41.6

Dwight Howard

Howard is a tough player to predict. He has been cleared to play as many minutes as his coach sees fit, which is nice. However, he has had a little boom or bust nature to his play this season. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 20th against centers this season. I’ll label Howard as an elite play on DraftKings and a secondary play on FanDuel.

FD — $7,200 — C
DK — $6,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.8 | Last Five Games: 12.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 26.8

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza

Ariza is another Rockets’ player that has been difficult to predict this season. He seems to score 15 or 35 fantasy points, with few outings in between. He’s not a bad play tonight against the Hawks, but I’m not going to force him into my lineup by any means.

FD — $5,500 — SF
DK — $5,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.5 | Last Five Games: 12.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 19.6

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Miami Heat Memphis Grizzlies
miaminba Vegas Total 190.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 190.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 92.5 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 95.00 Team Pace 96.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 16 5 23 17 6 Opp. Season 3 4 19 2 9
Opp. Last 7 6 3 25 10 3 Opp. Last 7 8 11 4 9 18

Miami Heat

Record: 18-12 — Road: 5-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are 18-12 on the season. Tonight they travel to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies in what should be the slowest-paced game on the schedule. The Heat are only projected to score 92.5 points tonight, which is the lowest team total on the board.

The Grizzlies have not been as good defensively as they have been in years past, but they are still ranked above the league average in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. Dwyane Wade bruised his hip last night against the Nets. If he is unable to play, give a small boost to Tyler Johnson, Gerald Green, and Goran Dragic.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Bosh

For our purposes, let’s assume that Dwyane Wade is going to play tonight. If that’s the case, there aren’t any elite plays on the Heat. Bosh is worth a look as a secondary option though. He has played well in his last five games, averaging 40.4 fantasy points per contest.

FD — $7,400 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 35.1
FP/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 40.4

Goran Dragic

Dragic has been playing better recently, averaging 25.6 fantasy points in 34.2 minutes in his last five games. He draws a decent matchup against the Grizzlies, who are ranked 16th against point guards this season.

FD — $6,000 — PG
DK — $5,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 16.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 25.6

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 17-16 — Home: 10-6 — Last 10: 4-6

The Grizzlies have lost six of their last ten games, but they have a respectable 10-6 record at home. The Grizzlies face a slow-paced team tonight at home. They are listed as 5-point favorites against the Heat. Memphis is projected to score 97.5 points, which is actually 1.1 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Heat have been elite defensively this season. They are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned about the matchup though, as the Grizzlies have a relatively high team total. Matt Barnes will not play tonight, as he has been suspended for the next two games.

Elite Plays

Zach Randolph

This pick hinges on whether or not Randolph draws the start at power forward. If he does, he will likely see minutes in the high 20’s to low 30’s, even though he is still priced as though he is coming off the bench. The matchup isn’t great, but the discount is appealing.

FD — $6,100 — PF
DK — $5,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 20.1
Min/Game — Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 23.7
FP/Game — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 23.2

Jeff Green

Green is an elite play tonight on FanDuel, but more of a secondary play on DraftKings, given the $900 price difference. He should see a small boost in minutes with Matt Barnes out and he comes into this game in good form, averaging 25.5 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $4,500 — SF
DK — $5,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 15.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 25.5

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

Gasol has played well recently, averaging 34.6 fantasy points over his last five games. Give the other options at center, he is more of a secondary play tonight against the Heat. Hassan Whiteside is one of the best low post defenders in the NBA and the Heat are ranked ninth against centers this season.

FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 21.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 34.6

Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Denver Nuggets
clevelandnba Vegas Total 197.0 denvernba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 95.5
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Matthew Dellavedova J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Kostas Papanikolaou Kenneth Faried Joffrey Lauvergne
Opp. Season 29 29 14 18 23 Opp. Season 12 14 3 3 1
Opp. Last 7 24 21 29 8 12 Opp. Last 7 14 15 11 28 14

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 20-9 — Road: 7-8 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games. They are playing their fourth game in five nights though, which could help explain why they are only 6-point favorites tonight against the Nuggets. Cleveland is projected to score 101.5 points tonight, which is the fourth highest team total on the board.

The Nuggets have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Kyrie Irving will not play in the second half of the back-to-back. Matthew Dellavedova is expected to start at point guard.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

If you have rostered James in either of the Cavaliers last two games, then you have been burned by him. He struggled in the blowout loss against the Blazers and then he only took ten shots last night. Look for him to be a little more aggressive tonight without Kyrie Irving in the lineup. As mentioned above, I prefer him over Durant, as the chances of a blowout are much smaller.

FD — $10,000 — SF
DK — $9,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 28.0
Min/Game — Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 44.2 | Last Five Games: 35.5

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

Love sees a small boost tonight with Kyrie Irving out, but his production has bene down recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29 fantasy points in 28 minutes per contest. The matchup is enticing, but I prefer Paul Millsap at a similar price point.

FD — $7,500 — PF
DK — $7,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 20.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 29.0

Matthew Dellavedova

With Kyrie Irving out, Dellavedova should see minutes in the low-30’s tonight against the Nuggets. He is a serviceable punt at his price point. He draws a favorable matchup, as Denver is ranked 29th against point guards this season.

FD — $4,500 — PG
DK — $4,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 15.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 26.8
FP/Game — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 19.6

Denver Nuggets

Record: 12-19 — Home: 5-9 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and have fallen to 12-19 on the season. They draw a tough matchup against the Cavaliers, but they at least get to face them on tired legs. Denver is still only projected to score 95.5 points, which is 3.7 points lower than their average points per game this season.

The Cavaliers may be playing their fourth game in five nights, but they are still an elite defense. On the season, they are ranked sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Danilo Galliari, Emmanual Mudiay, and Jusuf Nurkic have already been ruled out of tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Will Barton

Barton is the top play on the Nuggets tonight. With Emmanuel Mudiay and Danilo Gallinari out, he should see minutes in the mid-30’s again tonight. He has been in great form recently, averaging 37 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $6,800 — SG
DK — $6,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 23.8
Min/Game — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 37.0

Secondary Plays

Jameer Nelson

Nelson is a bit too expensive on DraftKings, but he is a borderline elite play tonight on FanDuel. He has played well as a starter with Emmanuel Mudiay out and he should see minutes in the low 30’s tonight against the Cavaliers.

FD — $4,700 — PG
DK — $5,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 15.0
Min/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 18.2 | Last Five Games: 21.6

Gary Harris

Harris is a decent punt on a night that features very little value. With all of the injuries to the Nuggets, he should see minutes in the 30’s tonight at home.

FD — $4,100 — SG
DK — $4,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.1 | Last Five Games: 16.4
Min/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 18.9

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious