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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-04 01:10:47

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Boston Celtics at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Boston Celtics New York Knicks
bostonnba Vegas Total 207.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 105.5 Team Proj. 102.0
Team Pace 101.20 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 15 13 9 10 15 Opp. Season 1 12 20 27 17
Last 3 Weeks 30 5 17 8 16 Last 3 Weeks 2 16 16 29 17

Boston Celtics

Record: 27-22 — Road: 13-12 — Last 10: 7-3

The Celtics have won seven of their last ten games and are 27-22 on the season. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. The Celtics are listed as 3.5-point favorites in a game that should remain competitive throughout. Boston is projected to score 105.5 points, which is the second highest team total on the board tonight.

The Knicks are an average fantasy matchup. On the season, they are ranked between 11th and 18th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jae Crowder is questionable with a shin/calf injury. He has played through a number of injuries in his career, but if he is forced to miss tonight’s game, it would give a small boost to Evan Turner, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart. I will continue to avoid the Celtics’ frontcourt. There are too many players that are seeing inconsistent minutes.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas

The point guard position isn’t as deep as it normally is, which makes Thomas one of the top plays. His price has come down a bit across the industry and assuming tonight’s game stays close, he should see 32+ minutes of action. Thomas also draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who have allowed more fantasy points to point guards than any other team over the last three weeks.

FD — $7,800 — PG
DK — $7,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 25.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 28.5
FP/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 29.2

Secondary Plays

Avery Bradley

Bradley is a safe cash game play with decent upside if Jae Crowder ends up missing tonight’s game. Bradley draws a mediocre matchup against the Knicks and he has been in good form, averaging 26.8 fantasy points in 33.3 minutes over his last five outings. He is a safe bet to see minutes in the mid-30s tonight.

FD — $5,800 — SG
DK — $5,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 18.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 33.3
FP/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 26.8

Marcus Smart

Smart is coming off of one of his best games of the season, scoring 36 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29.1 fantasy points. While he has been very productive off the bench, his price is reflective of his recent play. He is a little too expensive to be considered an elite play tonight.

FD — $5,700 — PG
DK — $5,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.5 | Last Five Games: 17.2
Min/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 22.8 | Last Five Games: 29.1

Evan Turner

This pick hinges on the availability of Jae Crowder. If he is ruled out, Turner would likely draw the start at small forward. In four starts this season, Turner has averaged 14.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.1 blocks/steals. If Crowder is active, Turner is more of a tournament play.

FD — $5,200 — SF
DK — $4,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 26.9 | Last Five Games: 27.5
FP/Game — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 25.8

New York Knicks

Record: 23-27 — Home: 14-11 — Last 10: 3-7

The Knicks have lost seven of their last ten games, but should be at full strength for tonight’s contest against the Celtics. Even though the Knicks are underdogs, this will be a pace-up game for New York, as the Celtics average over 101 possessions per game. The Knicks are projected to score 102 points, which is 2.6 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Celtics have been stout defensively this season, but their quick pace of play hurts their rankings in both points allowed per game (12th) and fantasy points allowed per game (12th). Jose Calderon was able to practice yesterday and is expected to return to the lineup tonight. That basically ends the run for Langston Galloway and Jerian Grant as value plays.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Anthony has played well in his last two games, scoring 49 and 40 fantasy points. His price is a little high on FanDuel, but he is sitting at a very playable $8,400 on DraftKings. While Jae Crowder is known as a stout defender, the numbers don’t exactly bare that out. On the season, the Celtics are ranked 20th against small forwards.

FD — $9,000 — SF
DK — $8,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 23.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 36.9 | Last Five Games: 35.1

Secondary Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

Porzingis is strictly a tournament play for me, but it’s a good time to buy some shares of his stock. His price has come down a bit across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against a Celtics’ frontcourt that is ranked 27th against power forwards and 17th against centers. Minutes are always a concern for Porzingis, but the upside is always there.

FD — $6,700 — PF
DK — $7,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 26.1
FP/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 25.9

Miami Heat at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Miami Heat Houston Rockets
miaminba Vegas Total 205.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 105.0
Team Pace 94.40 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Amar’e Stoudemire Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Corey Brewer Trevor Ariza Clint Capela
Opp. Season 22 22 27 30 19 Opp. Season 2 2 17 1 8
Last 3 Weeks 28 20 26 7 25 Last 3 Weeks 13 2 20 4 11

Miami Heat

Record: 27-21 — Road: 11-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Heat haven’t played their best basketball on the road this season. Tonight they head to Houston to take on the Rockets in a game that will be missing both starting centers. This will be a pace-up game for the Heat, as the Rockets average five more possessions per game. Miami is projected to score 100.5 points, which is 4.6 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Rockets are always an intriguing matchup for fantasy purposes. They are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. To make matters worse (or better for the Heat), the Rockets will be without Dwight Howard tonight. There are few times during the season where the Heat are projected to score over 100 points and we should take advantage of that tonight. Tyler Johnson will be out for the foreseeable future, as he had surgery on his shoulder. Hassan Whiteside has also been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Amar’e Stoudemire will draw another start at center.

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade

Wade has turned back the clock in his last five games, averaging 41.9 fantasy points in 32.8 minutes per contest. His price has come up across the industry, but he is still one of the top targets at shooting guards tonight. We all know how terrible James Harden is on the defensive end of the floor and even if they stick Corey Brewer on him, that’s not enough of a reason to be concerned.

FD — $7,900 — SG
DK — $7,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 29.4
Min/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 41.9

Chris Bosh

Bosh hasn’t shown a ton of upside recently, but he has been very consistent with Hassan Whiteside out. Over his last five games, Bosh has averaged 33.6 fantasy points in 34.9 minutes per contest. He is one of those players that always seems to fly under the radar, but he is a safe target in all league formats. On the season, the Rockets are ranked dead last against power forwards.

FD — $7,600 — PF
DK — $7,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 34.9
FP/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 33.6

Secondary Plays

Luol Deng

Deng may not be the most exciting play on the slate, but he is worth a look tonight as a value small forward. Over his last five games, he has averaged 24.6 fantasy points in 31.7 minutes per contest. Deng provides a relatively high floor at his price point and he should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight in Houston.

FD — $4,800 — SF
DK — $4,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.5 | Last Five Games: 16.7
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 24.6

Justise Winslow

Winslow has seen a major minutes spike with Hassan Whiteside out. Over his last five games, he has averaged 35.6 minutes per contest. He should see another heavy workload tonight, especially against a Rockets’ team that likes to play small. Many people may chase the points with Amar’e Stoudemire, but Winlsow is the better play of the two.

FD — $4,200 — SF
DK — $4,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.4 | Last Five Games: 8.4
Min/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 22.3

Houston Rockets

Record: 25-25 — Home: 15-12 — Last 10: 4-6

The Rockets have lost six of their last ten games, but they have fought their way back to .500 on the season. Tonight they host the Heat in what will be a pace-down game for Houston. Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned about the matchup though, as the Rockets are still projected to score 105 points against a Miami team that is missing their defensive anchor.

The Heat own a top five defense this season, ranking fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Rockets will be without Dwight Howard tonight, as he has been suspended for his actions in the previous two games. Clint Capela is expected to draw the start at center, while Howard’s absence also gives a boost to James Harden, Josh Smith, and Terrence Jones.

Elite Plays

James Harden

Harden may not see a boost in minutes with Dwight Howard out, but he should have a higher usage rate. Originally, this was going to be a good spot to fade Harden, but the absence of both centers puts him in play. He has been in tremendous form recently, averaging 53.9 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $10,900 — SG
DK — $10,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 27.3
Min/Game — Season: 37.3 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 46.0 | Last Five Games: 53.9

Josh Smith

Smith is not expected to enter the starting lineup, but he also sees a nice boost with Dwight Howard out. Smith has seen a more consistent role with the Rockets and he should be a safe bet to play 25+ minutes tonight. Given the lack of value plays on the board tonight, Smith stands out as a top punt play.

FD — $4,000 — PF
DK — $4,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 15.5 | Last Five Games: 21.6
FP/Game — Season: 15.1 | Last Five Games: 18.8

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza

I’m torn on Ariza. He is one of the streakiest shooters in the NBA and right now he is in the midst of a hot streak. Over his last five games, he has made 21 three pointers. The concern here is the matchup and the elevated price point. I’m not going to talk you off of Ariza tonight, but I see him more as a secondary play against the Heat.

FD — $6,000 — SF
DK — $5,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 36.7
FP/Game — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 33.6

Patrick Beverley

Beverley has been a solid source of value recently, averaging 25.6 fantasy points over his last five games. His price has come up a bit, but he is still priced below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s not a must play by any means, but he’s one of the best cheap point guard options available.

FD — $4,800 — PG
DK — $4,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.8 | Last Five Games: 14.0
Min/Game — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 18.3 | Last Five Games: 25.6

Clint Capela

Capela is a FanDuel-specific target tonight. Even as a starter this season, his minutes haven’t been secure. However, he will draw the start against the Heat tonight and he is priced at a very playable $4,400 on FanDuel. If you want exposure to both Capela and Josh Smith, I’d target Capela on FanDuel and Smith on DraftKings.

FD — $4,400 — PF
DK — $5,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.0 | Last Five Games: 16.1
Min/Game — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 18.9
FP/Game — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 15.1

Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Phoenix Suns
torontonba Vegas Total 199.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Sprd -9.5 Vegas Sprd 9.5
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 95.0
Team Pace 95.80 Team Pace 100.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Terrence Ross Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Archie Goodwin Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Mirza Teletovic Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 29 27 29 17 6 Opp. Season 3 10 6 6 20
Last 3 Weeks 24 27 29 24 18 Last 3 Weeks 16 11 5 1 22

Toronto Raptors

Record: 32-16 — Road: 14-10 — Last 10: 9-1

The Raptors 13-game win streak ended last night in Denver. They weren’t sharp on either end of the floor, but they have a good chance at starting a new streak tonight against the Suns. The good news is that the starters all played somewhat limited minutes last night. The Raptors are listed as 9.5-point favorites with their team total set at 104.5 points.

The Suns have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. DeMarre Carroll is close to returning to the court, but is expected to miss tonight’s game. James Johnson left last night’s game early with an ankle injury. If he is unable to suit up, Terrence Ross and Cory Joseph could see a nice boost in minutes.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

Lowry had one of his worst outings of the season last night, finishing with only 19 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. He has otherwise been in great form though, topping the 40 fantasy point mark five times in his last ten games. He has the perfect matchup for a bounce-back outing tonight, as the Suns have allowed the second most fantasy points to point guards this season.

FD — $9,000 — PG
DK — $8,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 37.1
FP/Game — Season: 38.6 | Last Five Games: 35.0

DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan is really the only Raptors’ player that had a decent stat line last night. He has been in good form over the last five games, averaging 32 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. As long as tonight’s game stays close, DeRozan should be one of the safest plays on the board.

FD — $8,200 — SG
DK — $8,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 26.5
Min/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 32.0

Secondary Plays

Terrence Ross

Ross is listed as the projected starter tonight with James Johnson injured. If Ross draws the start, he will be asked to play big minutes. He may not be the most consistent fantasy option on the board, but he would stand out as one of the top value plays. On the season, the Suns are ranked 29th against small forwards.

FD — $4,200 — SG
DK — $4,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 18.8

Cory Joseph

Joseph is in play either way, but would see a small boost in minutes if James Johnson is ruled out. Joseph has played well over his last five games, averaging 21.3 fantasy points per contest. As I’ve mentioned above, the Suns have really struggled to contain opposing backcourts this season.

FD — $3,900 — PG
DK — $3,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 17.2
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 25.5
FP/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 21.3

Phoenix Suns

Record: 14-35 — Home: 10-13 — Last 10: 1-9

The Suns have lost nine of their last ten games. After another blowout loss, management decided that they had seen enough of Jeff Hornacek. Earl Watson will now take over as the interim head coach. Watson had a lengthy career in the NBA and has a high basketball IQ. We can’t put any stock into recent rotations though, as Watson may look to shake things up. The Suns are only projected to score 95 points, which is the lowest team total on the board tonight.

The Raptors didn’t look like a great defensive team last night, but they are still ranked ninth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Brandon Knight is not expected to play tonight, while T.J. Warren is listed as questionable. If they are both out, it should mean major minutes for Devin Booker, Archie Goodwin, and P.J. Tucker.

Elite Plays

Devin Booker

Booker has been playing all of the minutes that he can handle recently. He’s the one player that I’m not too concerned about in terms of a potential new rotation. The Suns want to develop their young players and Booker should see 35+ minutes tonight (assuming he can stay out of foul trouble). Given his role in the offense, Booker is in play in all league formats.

FD — $5,200 — SG
DK — $5,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 19.7
Min/Game — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 25.6

P.J. Tucker

As long as T.J. Warren is ruled out, you have to at least consider Tucker. He has played at least 35 minutes in four of his last five games, averaging 24.6 fantasy points during that stretch. Tucker will put up a dud every now and then, but he’s shown that he has nice upside as well.

FD — $4,800 — SF
DK — $5,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.8 | Last Five Games: 11.2
Min/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 36.9
FP/Game — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 24.6

Secondary Plays

Archie Goodwin

After the last two games, everyone will be off of the Goodwin bandwagon. At this point, the wagon is broken down. With Earl Watson taking over as the head coach, I’m not sure how many minutes we can expect from Goodwin. However, only two games ago we were more than willing to pay this price. He is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight.

FD — $4,800 — PG
DK — $5,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 20.3
Min/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 12.9 | Last Five Games: 23.2

Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM

Milwaukee Bucks Portland Trail Blazers
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 205.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 96.10 Team Pace 97.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 24 15 7 23 18 Opp. Season 9 23 25 24 14
Last 3 Weeks 19 17 1 30 6 Last 3 Weeks 5 28 15 21 10

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 20-30 — Road: 7-22 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks are playing their second road game in as many nights, after losing to the Kings in Sacramento. Tonight they head to Portland to take on the Blazers in what should be a decent game to target. The Bucks may only be projected to score 99 points, but that is slightly higher than their average points per game this season.

The Blazers have a slightly below-average defense. On the season, they are ranked 16th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. O.J. Mayo, John Henson, and Greivis Vasquez have all been ruled out of tonight’s game. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Michael Carter-Williams are both intriguing tournament plays, but they have been too inconsistent to trust in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

With a low team total and the fact that the Bucks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, I don’t view any of their players as must starts tonight. Monroe has played well over his last five games, averaging 36 fantasy points in 31.1 minutes per contest. He draws a solid matchup against the Blazers, but for a little more, it makes sense to pay up for Karl-Anthony Towns.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.7 | Last Five Games: 23.4
Min/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 36.0

Khris Middleton

Middleton was the biggest fantasy disappointment of the night, finishing with 20 fantasy points in a favorable matchup against the Kings. His minutes and production are both lower with Jason Kidd on the sideline, but that seems like noise more than anything else. He went on his hot streak while Kidd was away from the team.

FD — $7,300 — SG
DK — $7,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 29.4

Jabari Parker

Parker is one of those players that makes a lot of highlight plays, but doesn’t end up posting huge stat lines. He has been productive over his last five games though, averaging 23.4 fantasy points. Maybe more important, Parker has averaged 34.7 minutes during that stretch.

FD — $5,200 — PF
DK — $5,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 12.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 20.5 | Last Five Games: 23.4

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 23-26 — Home: 14-10 — Last 10: 8-2

The Blazers have been playing their best basketball of the season, winning eight of their last ten games. They currently sit in the eighth seed in the Western Conference. The Blazers are projected to score 106 points tonight against the Bucks. Not only is that the highest team total on the board, but it is also four points higher than their average points per game.

The Bucks may play at a slow pace, but they are still one of the most favorable matchups in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While I won’t talk you out of playing any of the Blazers’ big men, they are best suited for tournaments. There are too many bodies that are splitting minutes right now, which makes it tough to predict minutes on a nightly basis.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard

Lillard has played well in his last five games, averaging 38.8 fantasy points per contest. He is always in play when the Blazers have a high team total, but the matchup isn’t as favorable as it may seem. Michael Carter-Williams is actually a very good defender and the Bucks have held point guards to the ninth fewest fantasy points.

FD — $8,800 — PG
DK — $9,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 27.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 39.5 | Last Five Games: 38.8

C.J. McCollum

With James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, and Dwyane Wade all in great spots tonight, McCollum will fly under the radar in tournaments. His price has come down on DraftKings and he draws a better matchup than Damian Lillard. On the season, the Blazers are ranked 23rd against shooting guards.

FD — $7,300 — SG
DK — $6,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 25.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 30.2

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Los Angeles Lakers
minnesotanba Vegas Total 204.5 lalakersnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd -4.5 Vegas Sprd 4.5
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 97.00 Team Pace 98.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Karl-Anthony Towns Gorgui Dieng Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 30 26 21 28 Opp. Season 23 14 16 9 9
Last 3 Weeks 11 30 27 17 30 Last 3 Weeks 29 6 24 6 1

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 14-35 — Road: 7-17 — Last 10: 2-8

The Wolves continue to struggle, but they get the cure for losing tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the Lakers and are listed as 4.5-point favorites. The Wolves are projected to score 104.5 points tonight, which is the fourth highest team total on the board and 5.1 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Lakers have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked 27th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The best part about this matchup is that the game is being played in Los Angeles, which should help keep the game close. Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin, and Kevin Garnett are all doubtful for tonight’s game. Gorgui Dieng and Zach LaVine should continue to benefit in their absence.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns

Ladies and gentlemen, the wait is over. Towns has finally hit his stride, averaging 43.6 fantasy points over his last five games. His minutes have been up and down all season, but with Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic doubtful, he should see at least 30 minutes tonight against the Lakers. He should dominate both ends of the floor and he is by far my favorite center in this slate.

FD — $8,600 — C
DK — $7,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 20.3
Min/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 43.6

Gorgui Dieng

Dieng has made the most of his last three starts, scoring 36, 45, and 29 fantasy points. He should keep the streak going tonight against the Lakers, who don’t rebound or defend the paint well. With Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic doubtful, Dieng should see minutes in the low to mid-30s again tonight.

FD — $5,500 — C
DK — $5,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.9 | Last Five Games: 15.3
Min/Game — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 29.3

Zach LaVine

LaVine’s price has come up, but if Kevin Martin is out again, he deserves consideration. Over his last five games, LaVine is averaging 27.4 fantasy points in 27.1 minutes per contest. He draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Lakers. He should be able to attack the rim at will.

FD — $4,700 — SG
DK — $5,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 21.4
Min/Game — Season: 23.5 | Last Five Games: 27.1
FP/Game — Season: 20.7 | Last Five Games: 27.4

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio

I get the feeling that a lot of people will be on Rubio tonight. While I certainly love the matchup, I am a little concerned about his minutes. He basically sees around 30 minutes each night and you could argue that the Kevin Martin injury actually hurts Rubio’s fantasy value. With Zach LaVine playing more minutes, Rubio doesn’t have the ball in his hands on every play. Rubio is still a borderline elite play, but I don’t consider him a must start.

FD — $6,700 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.6 | Last Five Games: 16.3
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 32.3

Andrew Wiggins

Wiggins has not played well against the Lakers this season and he continues to underwhelm in daily fantasy. Over his last five games, he is averaging only 23 fantasy points per contest. The price is right and the matchup is obviously favorable, but he has a bad track record of letting down the DFS community.

FD — $6,300 — SG
DK — $6,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 36.1
FP/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 23.0

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 9-41 — Home: 5-18 — Last 10: 0-10

The Lakers are a mess right now. They have lost ten games in a row and they continue to handle their young players poorly (see: D’Angelo Russell). Tonight they host the visiting Wolves in what will be a terrible real-life game, but a solid one to target in daily fantasy. The Lakers are projected to score 100 points, which is 4.2 points higher than their average points per game.

The Wolves may not be the worst defensive team in the NBA, but they are still an exploitable matchup. On the season, they are ranked 22nd in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Kobe Bryant is listed as question (per usual), while the Lakers have ruled out “(player-popup)Larry Nance Jr until after the All-Star break.

Elite Plays

Julius Randle

Even though the Lakers are expected to keep tonight’s game close, Randle is the only player on my radar. He will draw another start at power forward tonight with Larry Nance Jr. out. Randle has played well over his last five games, averaging 29.1 fantasy points per contest.

FD — $6,100 — PF
DK — $6,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 29.5
FP/Game — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 29.1

Secondary Plays

NONE

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious