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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-11 16:13:42

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat
sanantonionba Vegas Total 193.0 miaminba Vegas Total 193.0
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 93.0
Team Pace 96.20 Team Pace 94.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge David West Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 2 3 15 2 7 Opp. Season 5 1 1 3 4
Last 3 Weeks 3 13 13 5 15 Last 3 Weeks 10 5 3 30 9

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 43-8 — Road: 15-8 — Last 10: 8-2

The Spurs have won eight of their last ten games and are now 43-8 overall. Tonight they head to Miami to take on the Heat in what is expected to be a slow-paced game with very little fantasy appeal. The Spurs are only projected to score 100 points, which is 4.9 points under their season average.

In addition to a slow pace, the Heat have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. On the season, they are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The one positive in this matchup is that the spread is set at only 6.5 points. There are few instances where we can project the Spurs’ starters to play a full complement of minutes and this is one of them. Tim Duncan has been ruled out of tonight’s game, odds are that the Spurs will hold him out through the All-Star break.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard

Leonard’s production has been down recently, but we are fine with that as long as it’s accompanied by a price drop. His usage rate is actually up over his last five games and despite the difficult matchup, he should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against the Heat. Leonard provides a fairly high floor and is a borderline elite play on FanDuel where we have to roster two small forwards.

FD — $7,300 — SF
DK — $7,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 31.7

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge has been the one Spurs’ player who has really benefitted from Tim Duncan absence. Over his last five games, his usage rate is up and he is averaging 36.9 fantasy points during that stretch. The downside is that the Heat have been one of the best teams against power forwards this season. I prefer Derrick Favors tonight at a similar price point.

FD — $7,300 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 23.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 36.9

Miami Heat

Record: 29-23 — Home: 16-10 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have been playing some good basketball recently, winning six of their last ten games. They will have their hands full with the Spurs, who own the league’s second best record. The Heat are only projected to score 93 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board and 2.9 points below their season average.

In daily fantasy basketball, we don’t love targeting players against the Spurs. On the season, San Antonio is ranked first or second in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Even on a short slate like tonight, the Heat are an easy team to fade altogether. If Hassan Whiteside is back in the starting lineup, he could be worth a look in tournaments. As for the other Heat players, there are better options at each of their respective positions.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Washington Wizards at New York Knicks – 8:00 PM

Washington Wizards New York Knicks
washingtonnba Vegas Total 207.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 100.20 Team Pace 96.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 14 12 11 8 14 Opp. Season 17 26 27 9 11
Last 3 Weeks 25 10 26 3 4 Last 3 Weeks 30 14 14 23 14

Washington Wizards

Record: 22-27 — Road: 11-11 — Last 10: 3-7

The Wizards have lost seven of their last ten games and now find themselves five games below .500 on the season. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks in what could be a sneaky game to target for fantasy purposes. The Wizards are projected to score 103 points, which is the fifth highest team total on the board.

The Knicks present a pretty average matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked between 11th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Bradley Beal is expected to return to the starting lineup, after coming off the bench in the second half of a back-to-back against the Hornets. Nene Hilario and Kris Humphries are both listed as questionable, but Nene said that he plans to play tonight.

Elite Plays

Brad Beal

Don’t put too much stock into the fact that Beal only played 20 minutes against the Hornets the other night. It was the second half of a back-to-back and the Wizards wanted to limit his minutes. In the previous game, Beal played 32 minutes against the Sixers. That seems like a safe minutes projection for Beal tonight and given his discounted price point, he makes a strong play in all league formats.

FD — $6,000 — SG
DK — $6,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 22.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 27.3
FP/Game — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 25.5

Secondary Plays

John Wall

Wall has been playing well recently, but his price has come up to an almost unplayable level. He could be an interesting pivot in tournaments, but for cash games it makes sense to pay a little bit more to get up to Stephen Curry. If you are looking to get some exposure to the Wizards tonight, I prefer Bradley Beal or Marcin Gortat, dollar for dollar.

FD — $10,200 — PG
DK — $10,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 25.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 41.7 | Last Five Games: 49.5

Marcin Gortat

When Nene Hilario and the other Wizards’ bigs were out, Gortat was averaging minutes in the mid-30s. However, now that they have a couple of healthy bodies in their frontcourt, Gortat’s minutes have taken a hit. He is still worth a look tonight against the Knicks, but unless Hilario is ruled out, I prefer Greg Monroe at a similar price point.

FD — $6,900 — C
DK — $6,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 15.5
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 30.5

New York Knicks

Record: 23-31 — Home: 14-14 — Last 10: 1-9

The Knicks have lost nine of their last ten games. Their recent struggles prompted the firing of Derek Fisher; Kurt Rambis will take over as the interim head coach. The Knicks draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wizards. They are projected to score 104 points, which is the fourth highest team total and five points above their season average.

The Wizards have been one of the best teams to target players against all season. They are ranked 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories above and they play above the league average in terms of pace. The Knicks’ offense should see a small boost as a whole in tonight’s favorable matchup.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Anthony has been playing through a couple of injuries, but it hasn’t impacted his production on the floor. Over his last five games, he is averaging 39 fantasy points in 36.5 minutes per contest. He draws one of the top matchups on the board tonight, as the Wizards have allowed the third most fantasy points to small forwards this season.

FD — $8,900 — SF
DK — $8,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.3 | Last Five Games: 26.9
Min/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 39.0

Secondary Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

Minutes. That is the number one statistic to look at when contemplating whether or not to use Porzingis. While his minutes haven’t been great over his last five games, he has played 38 and 35 in his last two. There are safer power forward options for cash games, but Porzingis is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board. We know the type of upside that he has when he gets a full complement of minutes.

FD — $6,700 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 19.5
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 28.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.6 | Last Five Games: 25.8

Arron Afflalo

Jose Calderon may get some attention tonight, but if you are saving at point guard, you might as well go down to Raul Neto. The only other Knicks’ player on my radar is Afflalo. He has seen elite playing time recently, averaging over 40 minutes in his last five games. He also draws a nice matchup against the Wizards, who have struggled to defend wing players this season.

FD — $5,200 — SG
DK — $5,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 40.4
FP/Game — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 23.6

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks
bostonnba Vegas Total 208.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd -4.5 Vegas Sprd 4.5
Team Proj. 106.3 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 101.30 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 9 25 25 24 13 Opp. Season 1 9 21 25 20
Last 3 Weeks 5 30 15 17 20 Last 3 Weeks 7 23 9 19 23

Boston Celtics

Record: 31-22 — Road: 15-12 — Last 10: 9-1

The Celtics have won nine of their last ten games and are now 31-22 overall. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in a game that will likely get overlooked tonight in DFS. The Celtics are projected to score 106.3 points, which is the third highest team total and 1.3 points above their season average.

The Bucks play at one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA, which goes to show how truly terrible they have been defensively. On the season, they are ranked 20th or worse in all four defensive categories listed above. Jae Crowder is expected to play tonight, but hasn’t been nearly as effective playing through injury. He’s an easy fade tonight, despite the favorable matchup against Milwaukee.

Elite Plays

Avery Bradley

There are a lot of mediocre options at shooting guard tonight. The one that slightly stands out above the rest is Bradley. He is basically a lock to play around 35 minutes and he has a fairly high usage in this Celtics’ offense. He has also been playing well over his last five games, averaging 25 fantasy points per contest.

FD — $5,700 — SG
DK — $5,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 18.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 23.5 | Last Five Games: 25.0

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

A part of me wants to list Thomas as an elite play, but I’m not in love with his matchup tonight against Michael Carter-Williams and the Bucks. MCW is a very long defender that gets his hands in passing lanes. On the season, the Bucks have held point guards to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game. Thomas is still in play, but I’m slightly lower on him than I have been in his last few matchups.

FD — $8,000 — PG
DK — $7,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 25.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 33.3
FP/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 36.5

Tyler Zeller

You know the slate is tough when Zeller is listed as a viable fantasy option. Given the lack of value, he’s worth a look tonight against the Bucks, who have not defended the paint well this season. Zeller’s minutes have been consistent over his last five games and he is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game during that stretch.

FD — $4,100 — C
DK — $3,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 10.2 | Last Five Games: 20.4
FP/Game — Season: 9.6 | Last Five Games: 25.2

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 20-32 — Home: 13-8 — Last 10: 3-7

The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games and are 20-32 on the season. They have played well in Milwaukee though, sporting a 13-8 record at home. They are listed as 4.5-point underdogs tonight against the Celtics in what should be a pace-up game for the Bucks. They are projected to score 101.8 points, which is four points above their season average.

The Celtics are ranked second in defensive efficiency this season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, which is why they are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and 12th in fantasy points allowed per game. Given the projected pace, we can give the Bucks’ offense a small boost as a whole.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

Monroe seems a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but he is my favorite center target tonight on DraftKings. Even with Jason Kidd back on the sidelines, his minutes seem to be secure. He has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last four games and he continues to produce at a high level.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $6,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 21.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 32.7

Secondary Plays

Khris Middleton

The one player that has taken a big hit with Jason Kidd back on the lineup is Middleton. I’m not sure if it’s noise or if we should put more stock into it, but Middleton’s numbers are vastly different with and without Kidd on the sidelines. While I will be looking elsewhere in cash games, Middleton is a viable tournament option that should be fairly low owned.

FD — $7,300 — SG
DK — $6,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 22.4
Min/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 27.1

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis has played well over his last five games, averaging 30.5 fantasy points in 37.7 minutes per contest. He’s sort of in the same boat as Khris Middleton in that I’m not looking to target him in cash games. He has shown the type of upside that he provides though, which makes him an intriguing tournament play.

FD — $7,300 — SF
DK — $6,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 17.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 37.7
FP/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 30.5

Jerryd Bayless

If you need a value point guard and want to pivot off of the popular Raul Neto play, you could take a look at Bayless. His minutes are trending in the right direction and he should see minutes in the mid to high-20s tonight against the Celtics.

FD — $4,100 — PG
DK — $4,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.0 | Last Five Games: 13.9
Min/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 25.4
FP/Game — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 18.5

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM

Utah Jazz Dallas Mavericks
utahnba Vegas Total 185.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 185.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 91.5 Team Proj. 93.5
Team Pace 93.00 Team Pace 96.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 13 8 9 27 8 Opp. Season 6 2 2 1 3
Last 3 Weeks 8 21 7 20 30 Last 3 Weeks 1 1 2 2 2

Utah Jazz

Record: 25-25 — Road: 8-15 — Last 10: 7-3

The Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season, winning seven of their last ten games to get back to .500 overall. Tonight they head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a game that has the lowest over/under on the schedule. The Jazz are only projected to score 91.5 points, which is easily the lowest team total on the board.

The Mavericks have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking 15th or 16th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. It looks like the Jazz will be without Trey Burke tonight, as he is dealing with an illness. Raul Neto is expected to see a nice boost in minutes, while Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward could see a small boost in usage.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors

Favors struggled the other night against the Suns, but has otherwise been in great form. Over his last five games, he is averaging 32.9 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. I expect him to be the highest owned power forward tonight, as he takes on a Mavericks’ defense that has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to power forwards this season.

FD — $7,300 — PF
DK — $7,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 32.9

Raul Neto

I’m 99.9% sure that Neto has yet to make a roster of mine this season. That will all change tonight, as he should see all of the minutes that he can handle with Trey Burke out. I don’t expect a monster game from Neto, but it’s hard to pass on a starting point guard that is projected to play minutes in the mid-30s. He’s a low-risk value play that will allow you to spend up on a superstar or two tonight.

FD — $3,800 — PG
DK — $3,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 12.1 | Last Five Games: 19.3

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

Hayward’s production has been down a bit over his last five games, but he may see a small boost in usage with Trey Burke out tonight. Hayward is a bit too expensive on FanDuel, but is sitting at a very playable $7,300 on DraftKings.

FD — $7,900 — SF
DK — $7,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 38.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 30.7

Rudy Gobert

Like a lot of centers today, Gobert is a much better bargain on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. He comes into tonight’s game in great form, averaging 35.8 fantasy points in 35.3 minutes in his last five games. His matchup against the Mavericks isn’t great, but they have actually allowed the most fantasy points to centers over the last three weeks.

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $6,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.1 | Last Five Games: 13.5
Min/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 35.8

Rodney Hood

Hood seems a bit overpriced, but you have to like the upside that he provides at shooting guard. Most people will go with Avery Bradley, Bradley Beal, or Arron Afflalo in this price range, which makes Hood an interesting pivot in tournaments. He has shown nice upside, topping the 31 fantasy point mark five times in his last nine games.

FD — $5,800 — SG
DK — $6,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 21.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 35.9
FP/Game — Season: 23.0 | Last Five Games: 25.8

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 29-25 — Home: 15-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavericks have lost six of their last ten games, but are still four above .500 overall. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Jazz, who have one of the best defenses in the NBA. The Mavericks are only projected to score 93.5 points, which is seven points less than their season average.

The Jazz are back to being a top three defense in the NBA now that Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors are back in the lineup. This is a bad spot for the Mavericks as a whole, even though they are listed as 2-point favorites. Devin Harris is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, but his absence doesn’t really make a big fantasy impact.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Deron Williams

There are a few teams that I try to avoid taking players against whenever possible. The Jazz are one of those teams, as they play at a snail’s pace and have one of the best defenses in the NBA. However, I wouldn’t be doing the Grind Down justice if I didn’t mention Williams against his former team. In eight career meetings against the Jazz, Williams has averaged 15.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists.

FD — $5,600 — PG
DK — $5,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 24.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 27.0
FP/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 23.9

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors
houstonnba Vegas Total 230.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 230.5
Vegas Sprd 14.5 Vegas Sprd -14.5
Team Proj. 108.0 Team Proj. 122.5
Team Pace 99.50 Team Pace 102.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Corey Brewer Trevor Ariza Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 23 5 18 13 18 Opp. Season 17 23 28 30 21
Last 3 Weeks 27 7 22 10 11 Last 3 Weeks 26 24 29 13 29

Houston Rockets

Record: 27-26 — Road: 11-13 — Last 10: 5-5

The Rockets have won five of their last ten games, but draw a very tough matchup tonight against the Warriors. This game has an extremely high over/under, but it does come with some blowout risk. The Rockets are 14.5-point underdogs tonight. They are projected to score 108 points, which is the second highest team total on the board.

The Warriors are similar to the Celtics in that they are one of the most efficient defensive teams in the NBA, but their fast pace hurts the rest of their defensive rankings. With such a high team total, the Rockets are a viable team to target in all league formats tonight. The main concern here is the status of James Harden. He hurt his right middle finger the other night and is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest.

Elite Plays

Corey Brewer

It doesn’t feel right recommending Brewer as an elite play tonight, but I expect him to play big minutes against the Warriors. Both of these teams like to play small and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brewer play 30+ minutes in this one. On a night with little value, he stands out as a strong play at small forward.

FD — $4,000 — SF
DK — $4,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.4 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 20.8

Secondary Plays

James Harden

Harden is dealing with a finger injury, but at least it is on his non-shooting hand. As long as he is cleared to play tonight, he deserves consideration in daily fantasy. However, given their respective price points, I prefer Stephen Curry and Carmelo Anthony over Harden in cash games.

FD — $10,800 — SG
DK — $10,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 29.3
Min/Game — Season: 37.2 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 45.8 | Last Five Games: 52.5

Dwight Howard

Howard is an elite tournament play tonight, but more of a secondary option in cash games. His last five games have been a roller coaster, as he was thrown out of two of them. He should see 35+ minutes tonight if the Rockets can keep this game close. That’s obviously a big if though, which is why he is best suited for tournaments.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 30.7
FP/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 30.4

Trevor Ariza

Ariza is a better play on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. Not only do we have to take two small forwards on FD, but he is also $400 cheaper. Ariza comes into this game in solid form, averaging 26.9 fantasy points in 36.1 minutes over his last five games.

FD — $5,800 — SF
DK — $6,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 14.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 36.1
FP/Game — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 26.9

Patrick Beverley

I always give Beverley a small minutes boost when the Rockets are facing elite point guards. I can’t imagine that they will want to stick Ty Lawson on Stephen Curry for more than a few minutes. Beverley should see minutes in the low-30s and is a nice pivot from Raul Neto in tournaments.

FD — $4,600 — PG
DK — $5,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 29.1
FP/Game — Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 22.8

Golden State Warriors

Record: 46-4 — Home: 23-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors remain unbeaten at home, after taking down the Thunder the other night. There is still a long way to go, but it’s hard to see any team beating them on their own home floor. The Warriors are large favorites tonight against the Rockets in what should be the highest scoring game of the night. The Warriors are projected to score 122.5 points, which is one of the highest team totals that we have seen all season.

The Rockets have been awful defensively this season, ranking 24th or worse in all four of the defensive categories above. The matchup is not the concern tonight, it is whether or not the starters will see a full complement of minutes. However, on a short slate that features very few attractive fantasy options, I am going to ignore the blowout potential in this one. Even if the starters sit the fourth quarter, they could still come close to reaching value.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

Curry is the premier play at any position tonight. In his first meeting against the Rockets this season, he played only 27 minutes, but still managed to put up 25 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. His ownership should be very high, which makes him a tough fade in cash games.

FD — $10,900 — PG
DK — $11,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Min/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 47.2 | Last Five Games: 42.7

Klay Thompson

Thompson may be the most popular shooting guard tonight on FanDuel, but I expect him to get overlooked a bit on DraftKings. He is in play for both cash games and tournaments, as the Rockets have been one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending shooting guards.

FD — $6,900 — SG
DK — $7,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 24.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 35.4

Harrison Barnes

If you want to load up at some of the other positions, you can target both of the small forward value plays in this game. Barnes hasn’t been very productive recently, but his minutes are up. It’s hard to pass up on a player that is expected to see 30+ minutes against the Rockets for a price in the mid-$4,000 range.

FD — $4,400 — SF
DK — $4,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.8 | Last Five Games: 13.4
Min/Game — Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 19.5

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green

I’d like to list Green as an elite play tonight, but you can only fit so many Warriors into your lineup before they will start cannibalizing each other’s production. Green has incredible upside and a great matchup against the Rockets, I just don’t love the $9,000+ price point.

FD — $9,100 — PF
DK — $9,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.6 | Last Five Games: 13.0
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 39.5 | Last Five Games: 37.5

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious