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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-25 02:49:37

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Toronto Raptors
sanantonionba Vegas Total 206.0 torontonba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 101.5
Pace +/- -0.7 Pace +/- -2.5
Proj. Starter Dejounte Murray Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry Norman Powell DeMarre Carroll Lucas Nogueira Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 20 4 12 24 5 Adj. DvP 2 18 4 2 1
DRPM 0.85 0.16 0.92 3.20 -0.45 DRPM -0.78 0.70 0.99 0.96 3.17

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs changed the entire slate last night by announcing Kawhi Leonard as out a half hour before lineups locked. Gregg Popovich said that Leonard was dealing with a hand injury, but that is was more rest related. I tentatively expect Leonard to be back in the lineup tonight and it sounds like Manu Ginobili will join him. San Antonio comes into this game as a 3-point favorite with an implied total of 104.5 points. The Raptors haven’t been great defensively this season, but they play well at home and are ranked 15th in points allowed per game.

If Kawhi Leonard is able to return to the lineup, he immediately becomes a viable fantasy option. With Pau Gasol and Tony Parker out, Leonard should be a usage monster once again. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in four of his last six games. He does draw a difficult individual matchup against DeMarre Carroll, but we’ve seen Leonard play well in difficult matchups throughout his career. David Lee should be a popular fantasy target again tonight after averaging 32 fantasy points in his last three games. We obviously prefer him to start, but he could still see around 30 minutes even if he comes off the bench. LaMarcus Aldridge would become an auto-play if Leonard is unable to suit up. However, I expect Leonard to play and that will bump Leonard down to a secondary option on both FanDuel and DraftKings. With Parker out, Dejounte Murray and Patty Mills should both see a sizable boost. Mills is the preferred play of the two and is a viable target in all formats, while Murray makes a nice tournament play after letting everyone down last night against the Nets.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dejounte Murray $3,800 $4,500 0.82 7.8 18.4 6.4 16.0 26.8% -6.4% 20 0.85
Danny Green $3,500 $3,500 0.62 26.0 3.1 16.0 -0.8 13.0% -1.8% 4 0.16
Kawhi Leonard $10,100 $9,200 1.20 33.6 7.4 40.2 12.1 29.6% 5.4% 12 0.92
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,600 $6,900 0.97 32.5 0.3 31.5 4.5 23.2% -1.5% 24 3.20
Dewayne Dedmon $3,700 $3,500 0.95 15.6 3.6 14.8 0.8 12.3% -0.6% 5 -0.45
Patty Mills $3,900 $4,200 0.80 21.9 0.5 17.6 0.9 21.9% 3.9% 20 N/A
David Lee $5,100 $5,900 0.91 17.8 13.4 16.2 16.0 16.9% -0.7% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard (DK), David Lee, Patty Mills

Secondary Plays – Kawhi Leonard (FD), LaMarcus Aldridge, Dejounte Murray, Manu Ginobili, Dewayne Dedmon (if he starts)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have lost three games in a row and five of their last ten. To make matters worse, they will be without DeMar DeRozan for the next two games. Toronto draws a difficult matchup against the Spurs, who are ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. This will be a pace-down game for the Raptors and they have a low implied total of only 101.5 points. Toronto has the second lowest implied total in the slate and it is 8.5 points below their season average.

This would typically be a good spot to fade the Raptors as a whole, but things change with DeMar DeRozan out of the lineup. If we run the CourtIQ tool, we can see that basically the entire team sees a massive usage boost with DeRozan out. This is a trend that we have seen over the last two seasons and it makes sense because DeRozan has such a high usage rate in this offense. Kyle Lowry sees a 3.6% usage boost and a 0.14 FP/min boost without DeRozan on the floor and while he doesn’t have a great matchup against the Spurs, he is worth a look in all formats thanks to the potential boost in fantasy production. Norman Powell is listed as the probable starter for DeRozan, but Terrence Ross will also see a big boost off the bench. In the four games that DeRozan has missed in the last two seasons, Powell has averaged 35.2 fantasy points and Ross has averaged 22.9 fantasy points. Both are viable punt plays tonight, even in a difficult matchup against the Spurs. The final play that I want to touch on is Jonas Valanciunas, who sees a massive 0.26 FP/min boost with DeRozan off the floor this season. In other words, Valanciunas is averaging 38.3 fantasy points per 30 minutes without DeRozan on the floor.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,400 $8,800 1.06 37.2 0.0 39.5 -5.9 26.6% 2.6% 2 -0.78
Norman Powell $3,900 $3,400 0.71 14.7 2.0 10.4 -2.0 17.9% -1.4% 18 0.70
DeMarre Carroll $4,300 $4,500 0.68 26.5 0.1 18.1 -4.9 15.5% 0.0% 4 0.99
Lucas Nogueira $3,800 $4,000 0.80 21.0 14.4 16.8 8.7 9.4% -0.9% 2 0.96
Jonas Valanciunas $5,800 $6,000 0.97 27.1 1.8 26.3 4.6 18.3% -1.2% 1 3.17
Terrence Ross $4,000 $4,200 0.75 22.3 5.5 16.7 -2.0 18.3% -3.3% 4 N/A
Cory Joseph $4,000 $3,900 0.76 22.6 1.4 17.2 -7.1 20.9% -6.5% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas, Norman Powell, Terrence Ross

Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Orlando Magic
chicagonba Vegas Total 206.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 104.3 Team Total 101.8
Pace +/- -0.4 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton C.J. Watson Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 28 15 23 10 28 Adj. DvP 27 5 5 19 8
DRPM -0.51 0.10 -1.01 0.69 1.93 DRPM 0.05 -0.15 1.33 1.89 -0.20

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are teetering on the edge of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. If the season ended today, they would narrowly squeeze into the playoffs as the eight seed. Tonight’s game against the Magic could be a sneaky one to target for fantasy production, as we have seen Orlando get into shootouts with a number of teams over the last few weeks. The Magic have not been great defensively, ranking 17th in points allowed per game and 23rd in rebounding differential on the season. The Bulls come into the game as 2.5-point favorites with an implied total of 104.3 points, which is 3.2 points above their season average.

Jerian Grant is expected to start at point guard tonight, but with Michael Carter-Williams and Rajon Rondo still part of the rotation, all three are easy fades tonight. Dwyane Wade has been quiet recently, but he makes for a low-owned tournament play at shooting guard. Most DFS players will gravitate to Devin Booker and Bradley Beal at similar price points. Jimmy Butler draws a favorable matchup against a Magic team that is ranked 23rd against small forwards. Aaron Gordon is a physical defender, but he will have a tough time defending Butler tonight. Assuming Kawhi Leonard is active, it will be a difficult choice to make between he and Butler and small forward. The Bulls’ frontcourt has been tough to predict recently. Taj Gibson is cheap, but his minutes are trending in the wrong direction. Nikola Mirotic has flashed upside at times, but is too inconsistent to consider in a cash game setting. Robin Lopez has played well in his last three games and is the safest play of the Bulls’ big men.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jerian Grant $3,600 $3,400 0.70 14.7 -7.6 10.3 -4.6 18.6% 21.7% 28 -0.51
Dwyane Wade $7,000 $6,800 1.03 30.5 -0.5 31.4 -1.0 31.0% 2.7% 15 0.10
Jimmy Butler $9,600 $9,000 1.13 36.7 -0.5 41.6 -4.6 29.5% -4.3% 23 -1.01
Taj Gibson $4,700 $5,000 0.85 27.5 -4.1 23.5 -10.4 19.3% -3.4% 10 0.69
Robin Lopez $4,600 $4,500 0.77 28.3 1.5 21.8 2.8 15.8% 0.7% 28 1.93
Nikola Mirotic $4,000 $4,400 0.82 23.1 -2.7 19.0 -2.9 18.9% -2.1% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler

Secondary Plays – Dwyane Wade, Robin Lopez

Orlando Magic

The Magic have been my Achilles heel this season. They always show up near the top of my projection model and I typically have more exposure to their players than the field. The problem is that they have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NBA and they have constantly been involved in blowouts. Luckily, we shouldn’t have to worry about that tonight, as they host the visiting Bulls. The matchup doesn’t look great on paper, but Orlando has an implied total of 101.8 points, which is 1.8 points above their season average.

Before we get into the picks, let’s quickly hit on the injury situation in Orlando. D.J. Augustin is being listed as day-to-day with an ankle injury, which basically means his odds of playing tonight’s game are small. Evan Fournier is getting closer to a return, but he missed practice yesterday and is listed as questionable. With Jodie Meeks already out, Elfrid Payton should see all of the minutes that he can handle at point guard. Payton comes into the game in great form, averaging 34 minutes and 33 fantasy points in his last three games. We all know that it doesn’t take a lot for me to recommend Payton as an elite play. C.J. Watson isn’t a productive player on a point-per-minute basis, but he should see 30+ minutes tonight, which puts him in play as a shooting guard punt. Aaron Gordon is seeing 30+ minutes on a regular basis, even in blowouts. He has been wildly inconsistent this season, but he grades out as a top target at small forward. Jeff Green is averaging 23 fantasy points over his last three games and is still close to minimum salary. Serge Ibaka is an intriguing bounce-back candidate tonight, after playing less than 26 minutes in three straight games. Nikola Vucevic has also seen a dip in minutes recently, but I expect the Magic to play big against the Bulls, who almost always have two big men on the floor. Vucevic is averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute this season, so if he sees 30+ minutes tonight, he could easily reach and exceed value at his price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,700 $6,400 0.94 29.1 4.6 27.5 5.7 25.3% -0.2% 27 0.05
C.J. Watson $4,000 $3,700 0.50 13.8 14.9 7.0 7.8 14.9% 1.8% 5 -0.15
Aaron Gordon $5,200 $5,700 0.78 27.6 4.6 21.4 7.6 19.9% 2.0% 5 1.33
Serge Ibaka $5,900 $6,100 0.94 30.2 -7.7 28.3 -4.7 20.4% -0.4% 19 1.89
Nikola Vucevic $6,600 $6,600 1.14 28.0 -3.8 31.9 -7.9 24.9% -2.9% 8 -0.20
Jeff Green $3,800 $3,600 0.64 23.6 2.2 15.2 8.0 19.9% 3.7% 5 N/A
Mario Hezonja $3,500 $3,200 0.64 9.4 8.1 6.0 6.8 21.7% -1.5% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon

Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic, Jeff Green, Serge Ibaka (GPP), C.J. Watson

Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Philadelphia 76ers
laclippersnba Vegas Total 203.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 103.5 Team Total 100.0
Pace +/- 0.9 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Jahlil Okafor
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 19 7 9 9 24 Adj. DvP 5 6 22 7 19
DRPM 0.42 -1.20 2.68 0.31 -0.86 DRPM -2.23 -1.36 2.97 1.17 2.66

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers haven’t been able to stay healthy this season, but they are expected to have Blake Griffin back in the lineup tonight. Doc Rivers said that he wants Griffin to return without any limitations and that he will hit the ground running as soon as he returns to the lineup. That doesn’t mean that the Clippers won’t be monitoring his minutes, but basically they want him to be 100% before playing. The line on this game looks awfully strange to me. We are expecting Griffin to return, Joel Embiid has already been ruled out, and the Clippers are only 3.5-point favorites. Granted, the Sixers are playing their best basketball of the season, but that has a lot to do with the play of Embiid.

If Blake Griffin is able to return to the lineup, he immediately becomes an intriguing tournament play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I don’t expect him to come out and play 35 minutes, but he doesn’t have to at his price point. He draws a nice matchup against a Sixers’ frontcourt that is without their defensive anchor. The biggest hit in Griffin’s return goes to DeAndre Jordan. In the last two seasons, he is averaging 31.9 fantasy points with Griffin in the lineup and 38 fantasy points without him in the lineup. At his price point, Jordan is a fade for me tonight, unless the Clippers decide to hold Griffin out. In that case, you can fire up Jordan in all formats. Raymond Felton and Austin Rivers should both see declines in their usage rate with Griffin back, but they are still viable targets as long as Chris Paul is out. Of the two, I slightly prefer Felton tonight. He was in foul trouble last night and only played 28 minutes. J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford are both viable plays at shooting guard, although they are both better plays on FanDuel than they are on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Austin Rivers $5,400 $5,900 0.68 26.5 7.7 18.0 10.8 20.1% 3.8% 19 0.42
J.J. Redick $4,700 $5,100 0.73 27.8 2.5 20.3 1.5 21.7% -1.8% 7 -1.20
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.53 23.5 3.7 12.5 4.9 11.4% -1.2% 9 2.68
Blake Griffin $7,400 $7,600 1.17 33.6 39.4 29.4% 9 0.31
DeAndre Jordan $8,400 $8,100 1.07 32.0 1.8 34.1 6.6 14.9% 1.3% 24 -0.86
Jamal Crawford $4,200 $4,400 0.66 26.3 -0.6 17.4 5.6 23.5% 6.9% 7 N/A
Raymond Felton $4,900 $5,600 0.72 21.8 9.4 15.7 9.5 18.3% 2.7% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Raymond Felton (FD), DeAndre Jordan (if Griffin is out)

Secondary Plays – Raymond Felton (DK), Blake Griffin (GPP), Austin Rivers, J.J. Redick (FD), Jamal Crawford (FD)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have won seven of their last ten games, but could be without two of their best players tonight. Joel Embiid has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and Jahlil Okafor has been downgraded to questionable. It’s never a good sign when a player is downgraded after shoot-around, but we will have to wait for an update on his status. The Sixers draw a tough matchup against the Clippers on paper, but they come into the game with an implied total of 100 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

With Joel Embiid out of the lineup tonight, that certainly changes things as far as usage in this offense is concerned. The most glaring statistics that stand out in the CourtIQ tool are that Ersan Ilyasova, Dario Saric, and Jahlil Okafor all average at least 33 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Embiid off the floor. All three are viable targets against the Clippers and if Okafor ends up being ruled out, Ilyasova and Saric would both become elite plays in all formats. Nerlens Noel would also become an intriguing play, although his minutes seem to be capped in the low 20s. T.J. McConnell has played well as a starter this season and Austin Rivers is a much worse defender than Chris Paul. McConnell should see a small usage boost with Embiid out and he is likely going to get overlooked tonight. Robert Covington has not shot the ball well this season, but he provides a high ceiling in a game where he may be asked to play 35 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,500 $5,500 0.79 23.0 9.0 18.3 8.7 19.0% -1.9% 5 -2.23
Nik Stauskas $3,600 $3,400 0.58 26.2 -1.7 15.1 -3.2 16.1% -4.0% 6 -1.36
Robert Covington $5,400 $5,600 0.76 30.2 3.9 22.8 4.8 17.7% 1.3% 22 2.97
Ersan Ilyasova $6,000 $6,000 0.90 27.4 0.1 24.7 6.8 22.2% 4.2% 7 1.17
Jahlil Okafor $4,600 $5,200 0.87 23.0 6.7 20.0 3.3 21.7% -4.7% 19 2.66
Nerlens Noel $4,000 $4,300 0.98 15.6 2.8 15.3 -3.7 18.2% -2.5% 7 N/A
Dario Saric $4,000 $4,200 0.77 23.9 -2.7 18.5 -2.6 21.4% 4.7% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Ersan Ilyasova, Dario Saric (if Okafor is out), Jahlil Okafor (if active)

Secondary Plays – T.J. McConnell, Robert Covington, Dario Saric (if Okafor is active), Nerlens Noel

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Washington Wizards
bostonnba Vegas Total 217.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 109.3 Team Total 107.8
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- -0.3
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 4 3 17 27 6 Adj. DvP 21 22 20 21 23
DRPM -0.22 -0.71 1.33 1.10 1.46 DRPM -4.42 0.58 1.11 1.94 1.31

Boston Celtics

Even though there are only six games on the schedule, I think it makes for a better slate than last night. A large part of that is thanks to this game in particular. The Celtics are listed as 1.5-point favorites against the Wizards in a game that features an over/under of 217 points. We have been targeting players against the Wizards all season and there is no reason to stop tonight. Washington is currently ranked 16th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Celtics have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is 2.0 points higher than their season average.

Isaiah Thomas would have been on my radar regardless, but you have to like his upside with Avery Bradley out tonight. With Bradley off the floor this season, Thomas sees a 3% usage boost and he is averaging 49.7 fantasy points per 36 minutes. John Wall isn’t a terrible defender, but I view Thomas as an elite play in all formats in what is expected to turn into a shootout. Marcus Smart seems overpriced across the industry, but with Bradley and Gerald Green out, he should push for 35+ minutes in a high scoring game. I will certainly have some shares of Smart in tournaments. Jae Crowder should also play all of the minutes that he can handle. Crowder is one of the safest cash game plays on the board tonight at small forward. With a matchup against Marcin Gortat, Al Horford should fly under the radar in tournaments. I’m always interested in Horford when he is priced below $7,000 on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,300 $9,300 1.19 34.2 3.0 40.5 5.1 35.1% 4.5% 4 -0.22
Marcus Smart $5,600 $5,800 0.77 30.6 2.8 23.4 1.4 19.9% -2.2% 3 -0.71
Jae Crowder $5,600 $5,600 0.75 32.2 3.4 24.1 4.3 16.0% 1.2% 17 1.33
Amir Johnson $3,900 $4,000 0.80 20.5 2.5 16.4 3.0 14.2% -3.7% 27 1.10
Al Horford $7,300 $6,800 1.03 33.2 2.0 34.1 -1.0 22.7% -0.8% 6 1.46
Kelly Olynyk $4,100 $4,600 0.85 20.9 0.5 17.8 1.5 18.5% 0.4% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder

Secondary Plays – Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk (GPP)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have been HOT FIYA at home, winning each of their last 13 games. If you include the Washington Capitals, the two DC teams have won a combined 20 straight games at the Verizon Center. Their home winning streak will be put to the test tonight, as they host the visiting Celtics. As I mentioned earlier, this should be a great game to target for fantasy purposes. It is expected to stay close throughout and it has the highest over/under of any game in the slate. The Wizards have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the third highest overall and 1.7 points above their season average.

The Wizards downgraded Bradley Beal to questionable before last night’s game. He was eventually able to play and after logging 32 minutes, there is a chance that they could rest him tonight. For our purposes, I will assume that Beal is able to play, but it is a situation to monitor throughout the day. John Wall struggled in the second half against the Hornets last night, but should be able to bounce back against the NBA’s worst defender in Isaiah Thomas. In their meeting a few weeks ago, Wall scored 41 fantasy points despite scoring only nine actual points. I like Wall’s chances to drop a 50 burger on the Celtics tonight, especially since this game is at home. Beal sees a small boost with Avery Bradley out, although a matchup against Marcus Smart isn’t exactly ideal. Beal is my least favorite Wizard to target in their starting lineup. Otto Porter is averaging 32 fantasy points over his last three games and should see minutes in the mid 30s tonight. I always like targeting him in uptempo games. Markieff Morris has ditched the barf bags and has played extremely well recently, scoring at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Even at his elevated price point, I am highly interested in Morris tonight against the Celtics. Marcin Gortat minutes have been down recently, but the Celtics are ranked 23rd against centers and 28th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,700 $9,400 1.24 36.3 1.6 44.9 0.8 34.5% -0.6% 21 -4.42
Bradley Beal $6,700 $6,700 0.91 34.4 1.4 31.3 -5.5 26.4% -1.9% 22 0.58
Otto Porter $6,300 $6,200 0.83 33.7 -0.8 28.1 4.1 15.5% 1.9% 20 1.11
Markieff Morris $6,400 $6,300 0.81 31.7 6.4 25.8 6.9 20.2% -0.5% 21 1.94
Marcin Gortat $5,700 $5,800 0.83 35.0 -7.0 29.0 -3.7 14.2% 1.3% 23 1.31
Kelly Oubre $3,700 $3,300 0.63 19.6 5.4 12.4 6.0 14.2% -1.6% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat (FD)

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat (DK), Bradley Beal

Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz Denver Nuggets
utahnba Vegas Total 211.5 denvernba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 106.8
Pace +/- 2.1 Pace +/- -5.3
Proj. Starter George Hill Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 29 29 13 17 20 Adj. DvP 6 1 1 1 3
DRPM -1.33 -1.56 -0.71 -0.66 1.41 DRPM 1.30 -0.42 0.22 1.76 4.90

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are coming off of a tough loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. I made the crucial mistake of not realizing that it was the first game since Russell Westbrook was snubbed from being a starter in the All-Star game. We know that Westbrook plays with a chip on his shoulder and that chip was double-sized last night. It was basically a double-stuffed Oreo. Anyway, Westbrook was amazing as always and he nailed a game winning jumper to take down the Jazz. Utah will look to bounce back tonight against another talented young team in the Nuggets. These two teams feature different styles of play, which is a boost to the fantasy appeal of the Jazz. This is a pace-up game for Utah and they have an implied total that is 5.1 points above their season average.

George Hill has not shown the high ceiling that he had earlier in the season. If you take out his revenge game against the Pacers, he has failed to score more than 30 fantasy points in seven straight games. He draws one of the best possible matchups for a point guard, but I will likely have less exposure to Hill than the field. Joe Ingles was quiet last night against the Thunder and it looks like Alec Burks could cut into his minutes moving forward. Jingles is still a viable cash game punt on FanDuel, but he is far from a must start at $4,200. Gordon Hayward is affordable across the industry and he should benefit from an uptempo game against the Nuggets. Hayward is an elite play in all formats tonight. Derrick Favors grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar plays at small forward on FanDuel at only $4,500. And finally, we have Rudy Gobert, who is averaging 42 fantasy points in his last three games. He is still underpriced on DraftKings ($7,300) and he has a great chance to post another double-double.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $6,300 $6,900 0.96 31.3 1.1 29.9 -4.2 25.3% 0.5% 29 -1.33
Joe Ingles $4,200 $4,900 0.68 21.0 9.8 14.3 7.3 15.5% -2.0% 29 -1.56
Gordon Hayward $7,400 $7,200 1.00 34.8 0.2 34.8 -2.2 27.6% 1.3% 13 -0.71
Derrick Favors $4,500 $5,000 0.85 23.2 2.5 19.7 -1.0 20.4% -1.0% 17 -0.66
Rudy Gobert $8,100 $7,300 1.01 33.6 3.4 34.1 7.5 15.1% 4.1% 20 1.41

Elite Plays – Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert (DK), Joe Ingles (FD), Derrick Favors (FD)

Secondary Plays – Rudy Gobert (FD), Joe Ingles (DK), Derrick Favors (DK), George Hill, Alec Burks (DK)

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are a lot like the Sixers, only they have enough pieces to make a playoff push right now. They have a talented young big and a few veterans to surround him. If the regular season ended today, the Nuggets would play the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs, which would be fantastic. Unfortunately, they draw the worst matchup in all of fantasy basketball tonight. Not only are the Jazz the slowest paced team in the NBA, but they are also ranked first in points allowed per game. Home teams are generally able to control the pace of play, but this is still a pace-down game for Denver. The one plus is that the Jazz are playing in the second half of a back-to-back.

Emmanuel Mudiay missed Sunday’s game with a back injury and is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s contest. If he is unable to suit up, Jameer Nelson would become a viable punt play in all formats. Despite the difficult matchup against the Jazz, a starting point guard that is priced near $4,000 on a team projected to score 106.8 points is too good to pass up. Gary Harris is cheap enough that you can consider him in cash games. He is coming off of a big game against the Wolves. The only other play of note here is Nikola Jokic. It pains me to say it, but I will be fading the Joker against the Jazz. The Westbrook fade burned me last night, but paying a premium for players facing the Jazz is not a strategy that is going to be profitable long term, especially in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jameer Nelson $3,700 $4,000 0.70 24.9 3.1 17.5 1.1 20.3% -1.7% 6 1.30
Gary Harris $5,000 $4,700 0.81 27.0 8.2 21.8 12.0 19.6% -0.3% 1 -0.42
Danilo Gallinari $5,600 $5,400 0.78 34.2 -0.8 26.8 -0.7 19.2% -3.9% 1 0.22
Kenneth Faried $5,000 $4,800 1.01 22.0 -1.1 22.1 -8.1 17.1% -4.1% 1 1.76
Nikola Jokic $9,800 $8,600 1.24 25.6 3.1 31.7 10.6 23.3% 7.5% 3 4.90
Will Barton $5,200 $5,900 0.84 28.8 1.2 24.3 0.1 21.5% -3.0% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Jameer Nelson (if Mudiay is out)

Secondary Plays – Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious