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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-02-01 03:01:48

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

New York Knicks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Washington Wizards
newyorknba Vegas Total 217.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 112.3
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- 0.7
Proj. Starter Brandon Jennings Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 4 6 11 25 5 Adj. DvP 13 28 12 27 15
DRPM -0.25 -0.62 1.10 1.53 1.41 DRPM -2.45 -0.62 -1.72 1.62 1.26

New York Knicks

The Knicks will be without Derrick Rose tonight, as they take on the Wizards in Washington. This sets up to be a great game to stack given the fact that both teams like to push the pace and both defenses are ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game. The Knicks have struggled mightily over the last month of play, but are still only 2.5 games out of the playoff picture in the East. They come into tonight’s game as 7.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 104.8 points. I’m not overly concerned about the low total since Rose’s absence really opens the door for a number of plays from the Knicks.

If we run the CourtIQ tool with Derrick Rose off the floor, we see that Carmelo Anthony sees a massive usage bump of 7.1%. Per 36 minutes with Rose off the floor, Anthony is averaging 46 fantasy points. Even though the Wizards have been much better defenisvely over the last couple of weeks, Anthony deserves the elite play designation tonight. Brandon Jennings will draw the start at point guard and should see minutes in the mid-30s. In seven starts this season, Jennings is averaging 17 points, four rebounds, and six assists per game. Kristaps Porzingis is my favorite contrarian play in the slate, although I hope he actually turns out to be contrarian. He has played 35 and 30 minutes in the last two games, he sees a small usage boost with Rose out, and he draws the best matchup of the five starters. Courtney Lee is a decent punt at shooting guard, although there are better values available in the slate. Joakim Noah is coming off of a monster game against the Hawks, but center is loaded with value tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Brandon Jennings $5,600 $5,100 0.77 24.0 11.1 18.5 6.1 22.3% -4.5% 4 -0.25
Courtney Lee $4,800 $4,300 0.60 31.4 10.6 18.7 15.0 14.1% 1.8% 6 -0.62
Carmelo Anthony $8,500 $7,500 1.05 33.9 6.1 35.5 7.0 29.4% 6.0% 11 1.10
Kristaps Porzingis $6,500 $6,200 0.97 33.4 -4.0 32.6 -6.5 23.3% -1.9% 25 1.53
Joakim Noah $4,500 $3,500 0.94 22.8 0.8 21.5 -1.4 14.1% -4.0% 5 1.41

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Brandon Jennings, Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (Cash), Courtney Lee

Washington Wizards

The Knicks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. They have won four games in a row and eight of their last ten. They draw a terrific matchup tonight at home against the Knicks, who are ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency this season. The only concern here is a potential blowout, but the spread is set at only 7.5 points, so hopefully New York can keep the game within striking distance. The Wizards have an implied total of 112.3 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 5.6 points above their season average.

There are few players in basketball right now with a higher floor than John Wall. In his worst outing in his last ten games, he scored 36 fantasy points. He draws a favorable matchup against Brandon Jennings, who has a DRPM of -2.45 this season (one of the worst in the NBA). The only knock on Wall is that his price is now in the double-digits on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Bradley Beal stands out as one of the top shooting guard targets in the slate. The Knicks have struggled to defend shooting guards all season. Otto Porter seems a bit expensive across the industry. He’s far from a building block tonight, but I don’t mind him as a fill in if you need a small forward at his price. Believe it or not, Markieff Morris has had a high floor over the last few weeks. Yeah I know, what is the world coming to? He draws a nice matchup against a Knicks’ defense that is ranked 27th against power forwards. Marcin Gortat would typically be a decent play, but there is so much value at center tonight that I probably won’t end up clicking his name.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,500 $10,000 1.24 36.3 -1.2 45.0 0.6 34.5% 0.6% 13 -2.45
Bradley Beal $7,000 $6,800 0.91 34.3 -1.1 31.3 1.8 26.5% 0.2% 28 -0.62
Otto Porter $6,600 $6,400 0.84 33.7 -0.8 28.2 -0.6 15.2% -3.4% 12 -1.72
Markieff Morris $6,900 $6,600 0.83 31.9 0.0 26.3 7.2 20.5% 4.9% 27 1.62
Marcin Gortat $6,500 $5,800 0.84 34.6 -3.9 29.1 4.3 14.2% 2.4% 15 1.26
Kelly Oubre $3,600 $3,400 0.63 20.3 7.7 12.9 1.6 14.1% -0.6% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter

New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Toronto Raptors
neworleansnba Vegas Total 214.0 torontonba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 111.0
Pace +/- -0.7 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Buddy Hield Solomon Hill Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 12 3 14 16 9 Adj. DvP 27 17 25 28 13
DRPM 1.04 -2.27 0.69 1.77 -0.29 DRPM 1.15 -2.74 1.04 0.87 3.07

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have played well when healthy this season and they should have everyone available for tonight’s game against the Raptors. Toronto used to be a team that we would automatically avoid players against, but that hasn’t been the case this season. They are currently ranked 16th in defensive efficiency and 20th in rebounding differential. The Pelicans have an implied total of 103 points, which is nearly identical to their season average. Like the first game in the slate, the only concern here is a potential blowout.

Jrue Holiday is averaging 42 fantasy points in his last three games, but I’m not going to put a lot of stock into it. His usage rate has gone down since Tyreke Evans came back from his injury. Not only that, but Holiday’s price is at its highest point in over a month. Before I understood the house edge on Roulette, it was a game that I enjoyed. I no longer like to play that game, so I will not be spinning the Pelicans’ shooting guard Roulette wheel tonight. Anthony Davis had a monster game against the Spurs at home the other night. If the Pelicans are going to keep this game close, they will need a similar outing from him tonight. I will have some shares of Davis in tournaments, but the days of playing him in cash games are behind me. Tyreke Evans remains a point-per-minute monster, but it’s hard to pay $5,000+ for a player that is expected to see 18-20 minutes of action.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $7,800 $7,700 1.02 31.2 5.1 31.7 11.2 27.0% -0.9% 12 1.04
Buddy Hield $3,500 $3,200 0.69 20.0 -2.4 13.7 -7.2 20.6% 0.0% 3 -2.27
Solomon Hill $4,700 $4,000 0.55 27.9 5.7 15.5 10.6 11.3% 3.0% 14 0.69
Dante Cunningham $3,500 $3,300 0.54 25.4 -0.1 13.8 -0.6 10.8% -3.3% 16 1.77
Anthony Davis $11,200 $10,500 1.41 35.9 -6.1 50.5 -10.2 31.0% 0.2% 9 -0.29
Tyreke Evans $5,200 $5,200 1.16 17.7 2.6 20.5 0.0 30.7% -5.3% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (Cash), Jrue Holiday

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have lost six of their last ten games, but should be able to bounce back tonight against the Pelicans at home. New Orleans hasn’t been terrible from an efficiency standpoint, but they are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential. They have also allowed the third most fantasy points per game at 211.8. The Raptors are listed as 7.5-point favorites with an implied total of 111 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and 1.4 points above their season average.

Kyle Lowry averages nearly as many minutes as any player in the NBA this season. In daily fantasy basketball, we like to treat our minutes like gold, especially when it comes to superstars. His matchup against Jrue Holiday doesn’t look great from a DRPM standpoint, but the Pelicans are ranked 27th against point guards as a whole. DeMar DeRozan is too expensive on FanDuel ($8,900) and too cheap on DraftKings ($7,800). Seeing as how this is such a price-sensitive sport, he is a much better play on DraftKings tonight. With DeRozan back in the lineup, I’m not interested in the likes of DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, or Norman Powell. Patrick Patterson is a decent value play at power forward, but I’d rather take a shot on Larry Nance, who has more upside and is in a better matchup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,700 $8,600 1.07 37.4 1.6 39.9 7.7 27.0% 3.4% 27 1.15
DeMar DeRozan $8,900 $7,800 1.14 35.4 0.9 40.5 -2.1 34.2% -4.9% 17 -2.74
DeMarre Carroll $4,000 $3,900 0.68 26.1 -2.4 17.7 -0.6 15.9% 3.0% 25 1.04
Patrick Patterson $3,900 $3,500 0.64 27.8 -0.2 17.9 0.9 12.3% -0.6% 28 0.87
Jonas Valanciunas $5,800 $5,400 0.97 27.0 -1.2 26.2 -1.5 18.2% -2.6% 13 3.07
Terrence Ross $3,700 $4,100 0.76 22.5 0.0 17.0 -0.9 18.4% 0.0% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan (DK)

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (FD), Patrick Patterson

Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Houston Rockets
sacramentonba Vegas Total 225.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 225.5
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 107.0 Team Total 118.5
Pace +/- 2.9 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Darren Collison Arron Afflalo Garrett Temple DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 20 22 28 24 19 Adj. DvP 19 19 20 10 12
DRPM 1.81 -1.42 1.25 -0.63 0.63 DRPM -2.19 -2.10 0.41 0.60 2.87

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Sixers in Philadelphia last night. They are the only team in the slate that is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, so keep that in mind when building your lineups. They draw a favorable matchup against the uptempo Rockets, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game this season. The Kings have an implied total of 107 points, which is 3.9 points above their season average. If we are concerned about a blowout in the first two games, then we definitely need to be concerned about a blowout here. The Kings are currently listed as 12-point underdogs.

Darren Collison only played 24 minutes last night, but played at least 35 in each of his previous three outings. Even though I don’t love his matchup against Patrick Beverley, this is a good bounce-back spot to target Collison in tournaments. Individual matchups can often overshadow team matchups and the Rockets haven’t been particularly stingy against point guards this season. Garrett Temple and Arron Afflalo are both viable punt plays at shooting guards. They aren’t my favorite two values in the slate, but they are viable plays in all formats. DeMarcus Cousins has dropped three 60 burgers in his last four games. His price is at it’s highest point in the last few weeks and the Kings are 12-point underdogs. I’m not saying to fade him in tournaments, but I may look elsewhere in cash games. The upside is there with Cousins, but so is the risk given the spread and the fact that this is the second half of a back-to-back.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $5,100 $5,300 0.75 30.0 9.0 22.5 10.3 21.4% 0.2% 20 1.81
Arron Afflalo $3,600 $3,400 0.51 24.7 10.4 12.5 6.6 14.2% -1.7% 22 -1.42
Garrett Temple $4,200 $4,200 0.63 26.6 5.0 16.7 -1.4 14.3% -0.4% 28 1.25
DeMarcus Cousins $11,400 $11,200 1.43 34.7 2.8 49.5 7.9 36.8% 0.0% 24 -0.63
Kosta Koufos $3,500 $3,000 0.79 19.4 -0.1 15.3 -0.3 13.9% -1.9% 19 0.63
Ty Lawson $4,600 $4,000 0.78 24.8 -0.9 19.3 0.3 21.9% -0.1% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Darren Collison (GPP), DeMarcus Cousins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (Cash), DeMarcus Cousins (Cash), Arron Afflalo, Garrett Temple

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are looking to bounce back after getting ran out of the gym the other night against the Pacers. They certainly have the matchup to do it, as the Kings are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Rockets are one of the best offenses in the NBA and it’s no surprise that they have the highest implied total in this small six game slate. The Rockets are projected to score 118.5 points, which is 4.2 points above their season average.

The Rockets basically go as James Harden goes. When he plays well, they win basketball games. When he struggles like he did against the Pacers, there is little hope for Houston. Harden should be able to eat against a Kings’ defense that is ranked 19th against both point guards and shooting guards this season. Arron Afflalo used to be an elite defender, but his DRPM for the season is currently at -2.10. Harden is the top overall play in the slate and is likely a cash game lock for me on FanDuel. Obviously, with the tighter cap on DraftKings, a fade of Harden is more reasonable over there. Outside of the bearded one, Trevor Ariza stands out as a nice value. He has been struggling recently, but should play around 35 minutes in a high scoring game against the Kings. Patrick Beverley is also a decent cash game target at point guard. Clint Capela is expected to draw the start at center tonight, but there are three players splitting minutes at the position right now. Capela is a tough sell, especially with all of the center value in the slate. As always, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are viable GPP plays.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,300 $5,100 0.81 31.1 1.6 25.3 -5.5 15.9% -1.3% 19 -2.19
James Harden $12,500 $12,200 1.48 36.5 -0.5 54.0 2.8 38.7% 5.2% 19 -2.10
Trevor Ariza $5,100 $5,100 0.73 34.5 0.0 25.2 -7.3 14.7% -1.7% 20 0.41
Ryan Anderson $5,000 $5,000 0.71 30.7 6.9 21.9 4.5 17.0% -0.7% 10 0.60
Clint Capela $4,900 $4,700 1.07 23.0 -1.6 24.6 -0.8 19.1% 4.7% 12 2.87
Eric Gordon $5,700 $5,200 0.82 30.5 -4.3 25.1 -5.4 23.8% 2.7% 19 N/A
Clint Capela $4,900 $4,700 1.07 23.0 -1.6 24.6 -0.8 19.1% 4.7% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson (GPP), Eric Gordon (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 210.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 100.3 Team Total 109.8
Pace +/- -2.3 Pace +/- 1.6
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard Davis Bertans LaMarcus Aldridge
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 2 15 3 5 2 Adj. DvP 23 8 23 23 6
DRPM -1.26 1.05 0.66 -0.14 0.82 DRPM -0.12 0.36 1.91 1.24 2.52

Oklahoma City Thunder

Russell Westbrook can’t be too happy right now. He was already responsible for so much of the Thunder’s offense and now Enes Kanter is going to miss at least a month after fracturing his forearm on a chair. To make matters worse, the Thunder draw one of the toughest matchups in all of basketball. They have to face the Spurs in San Antonio. On the season, the Spurs are ranked 25th in pace of play, second in points allowed per game, and third in defensive efficiency. The Thunder are listed as 8.5-point favorites and have the lowest implied total in the slate. Russell Westbrook has failed to crack the 50-fantasy point mark in his last five games against the Spurs. Even though his usage rate will be off the charts, he is an easy fade in cash games. We’ve seen him post some crooked numbers on some elite defenses this season though, so he is still worth a look in tournaments. The rest of the Thunder can be avoided tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,200 $12,300 1.65 34.7 1.0 57.3 -3.5 45.8% 0.3% 2 -1.26
Victor Oladipo $6,000 $5,500 0.78 34.0 2.4 26.5 3.4 21.0% -0.8% 15 1.05
Andre Roberson $3,700 $3,600 0.57 30.7 -3.9 17.4 -0.7 10.4% -1.7% 3 0.66
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,300 0.61 21.4 6.2 13.0 2.3 14.4% 1.1% 5 -0.14
Steven Adams $6,000 $5,400 0.84 30.2 1.6 25.5 2.6 16.4% 1.5% 2 0.82
Jerami Grant $3,500 $3,200 0.58 21.7 0.5 12.5 1.2 11.8% -3.2% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (GPP)

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have already lost five more games at home this season than they did all of last season. That statistic is more noise than anything though, as San Antonio still has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Thunder, who are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are listed as 8.5-point favorites with an implied total of 109.8 points, which is 2.3 points above their season average.

There are two situations where I like to target the Spurs – when they are projected to be in a close game against another elite team or when they are missing Kawhi Leonard or LaMarcus Aldridge. They don’t have either criteria checked off tonight against the Thunder. Tony Parker is a decent punt play at point guard, but the opportunity cost of using him is big. Point guard is almost always the deepest position in every slate. Kawhi Leonard is my favorite play here, but he is more of a DraftKings-specific play where he is $800 cheaper than he is on FanDuel. LaMarcus Aldridge is also a decent play on DraftKings, but I wouldn’t consider him to be an elite play. Overall, I plan to have very limited exposure to this game as a whole.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,600 $4,100 0.80 25.6 -3.2 20.4 -3.6 24.6% 3.2% 23 -0.12
Danny Green $3,700 $3,800 0.61 26.6 4.9 16.3 6.1 12.8% -0.1% 8 0.36
Kawhi Leonard $9,600 $8,800 1.19 33.6 0.2 40.0 -3.7 29.7% 2.2% 23 1.91
Davis Bertans $3,600 $3,100 0.71 10.6 6.6 7.5 11.2 14.7% 3.4% 23 1.24
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,800 $6,700 0.97 32.3 0.3 31.5 -0.1 23.6% 4.1% 6 2.52
Patty Mills $3,900 $3,700 0.81 22.1 2.5 18.0 0.5 22.0% 0.4% 23 N/A
David Lee $5,700 $5,500 0.92 18.4 6.7 16.9 6.2 17.3% 0.6% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kawhi Leonard (FD), LaMarcus Aldridge (DK)

Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Portland Trail Blazers
charlottenba Vegas Total 214.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 105.3 Team Total 108.8
Pace +/- 1.3 Pace +/- 0.0
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Evan Turner Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 10 11 24 26 28 Adj. DvP 15 24 17 13 27
DRPM -2.35 -2.00 -1.27 0.53 0.72 DRPM -0.65 0.72 2.04 0.50 1.51

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have really struggled on the road this season, which helps explain why they are 3.5-point underdogs against the Blazers. Charlotte is only 8-15 away from home, while Portland is a much better home team. As long as this game stays close, it should be filled with fantasy goodness. The Blazers are one of the best possible matchups for fantasy production, as they are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Hornets have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is markedly higher than their average points scored on the road this season.

Kemba Walker has played well on the road recently and is now averaging only 2.3 fewer points per game away from home. We may be able to ditch the “only target Kemba at home” thing. He draws a favorable matchup against Damian Lillard, who has a DRPM of -2.35 this season. Walker is one of my favorite GPP plays in the slate and is on my short list of potential cash game point guards. Nicolas Batum has the revenge narrative brewing for him tonight, as he faces his former team. In his last three games against the Blazers, Batum has scored 33, 18, and 46 fantasy points. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been a popular small forward target recently, but I may hop off of him now that Marco Belinelli and Jeremy Lamb are both healthy. Cody Zeller is not expected to play tonight, which opens up big minutes for Marvin Williams and Spencer Hawes. In the last three games, Williams is averaging 22 fantasy points and Hawes is averaging 24 fantasy points per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,300 $7,900 1.10 34.0 3.9 37.3 8.2 30.8% 2.0% 10 -2.35
Nicolas Batum $7,300 $7,400 0.95 34.8 3.1 33.2 1.4 23.5% -1.4% 11 -2.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,500 $5,200 0.78 29.7 0.3 23.1 3.7 14.5% -0.4% 24 -1.27
Marvin Williams $5,100 $4,900 0.77 27.3 3.5 21.1 1.2 17.5% 1.7% 26 0.53
Roy Hibbert $3,500 $3,000 0.73 16.1 -0.4 11.8 -3.0 13.2% -1.5% 28 0.72
Frank Kaminsky $3,900 $3,900 0.80 24.1 -3.4 19.3 -3.9 20.6% -1.5% 26 N/A
Spencer Hawes $4,900 $4,600 0.90 17.7 9.8 15.9 8.3 20.1% -3.0% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (Cash), Marvin Williams, Spencer Hawes, Frank Kaminsky (GPP)

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have lost five of their last ten games and are now trailing the Nuggets by three games in the loss column. If the regular season ended today, they would not make the playoffs. Tonight’s game against the Hornets is a big one, as they’d like to pick up some momentum. Even though the Hornets are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency, they have struggled on the road all season. The Blazers have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is slightly above their season average.

Damian Lillard has been a player that I’ve gotten wrong more often than not this season, but he is only $8,300 on FanDuel. That price tag is hard to pass up considering the fact that he averages 40 fantasy points a game and has a true usage rate of 32.1%. In his last three games against Kemba Walker, Lillard has scored 39, 40, and 37 fantasy points. C.J. McCollum is a bit too expensive for my tastes. If I’m targeting a shooting guard from this game, I’d rather target the one with the revenge narrative in his corner. Although I will say, McCollum has his Twitter game on point. Evan Turner has been a great value ever since entering the starting lineup. There is a chance that the Hornets could stick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on Lillard, which would leave Kemba Walker on Turner. Mason Plumlee is a bit expensive on FanDuel, but I like him as a GPP play on DraftKings at $6,500.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,300 $8,700 1.12 35.7 1.2 40.0 -3.6 32.1% -1.8% 15 -0.65
C.J. McCollum $7,900 $7,600 0.99 34.7 -0.5 34.5 -3.1 27.9% -3.1% 24 0.72
Evan Turner $4,800 $4,700 0.76 26.3 6.3 20.1 4.5 20.1% -0.7% 17 2.04
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,000 0.71 12.6 5.3 9.0 2.3 13.8% -3.0% 13 0.50
Mason Plumlee $7,400 $6,500 1.05 28.1 4.6 29.4 6.6 20.3% 2.7% 27 1.51
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,300 $4,500 0.74 28.4 3.0 21.0 0.4 15.1% -0.4% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard (FD), Evan Turner

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (DK), C.J. McCollum, Mason Plumlee (DK), Al-Farouq Aminu (DK)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious