NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 13th

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Washington Wizards
Vegas Total 217.5 Vegas Total 217.5
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Implied Team Total 107.0 Implied Team Total 110.5
Pace Projection +/- -0.3 Pace Projection +/- -1.3
Projected Starters Jeff Teague Andrew Wiggins Nemanja Bjelica Taj Gibson Karl-Anthony Towns Projected Starters Tomas Satoransky Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 13 8 24 2 5 DvP 19 17 1 5 7
DRPM Rat. 8 13 2 21 9 DRPM Rat. 21 28 10 14 21

Minnesota Timberwolves

We have a massive 11-game slate on tap tonight, so I’ll try to get through the games as quickly as possible. The Wolves are one of seven teams currently separated by one game in the loss column. Only five of the seven will make the playoffs, so every game from here on out is important. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

Jeff Teague has played well without Jimmy Butler in the lineup this season, but Tomas Satoransky and the Wizards have held opposing point guards in check this season. At a similar price point, I would much rather target Lonzo Ball in a home matchup against the Nuggets. Andrew Wiggins sees a significant boost in usage with Butler off the floor, but will likely draw the defense of Otto Porter. If that’s the case, it could open the door for Nemanja Bjelica, who has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 39 minutes and 34 fantasy points per contest. Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the top options if you are paying up at center, but Marcin Gortat has been a stout defender throughout his career. KAT is more of a tournament play than a cash game target.

Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (Out)

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 109.7 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (19 of 22)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,000 $6,600 $12,300 30.9 4.3 33.1 -0.8 0.93 20.2% 10 13 8
Andrew Wiggins $6,500 $6,700 $14,100 28.9 2.2 36.2 0.8 0.80 21.1% 6 8 13
Nemanja Bjelica $5,800 $6,200 $12,100 14.8 18.7 18.2 20.6 0.81 13.4% 14 24 2
Taj Gibson $5,600 $5,600 $11,500 26.5 -3.1 33.7 1.8 0.79 13.1% 20 2 21
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,000 $9,400 $17,300 43.4 4.7 35.1 0.2 1.24 19.9% 6 5 9
Jamal Crawford $4,000 $3,900 $8,100 15.7 0.5 19.6 5.1 0.80 22.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Nemanja Bjelica (FD), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nemanja Bjelica (DK), Jeff Teague (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD GPP)


Washington Wizards

If the regular season ended today, the Wizards would be locked into the five seed with a first-round matchup against the Cavaliers. They are only a half game behind Cleveland in the standings and would likely need home-court advantage in that series to pull off the upset. Tonight’s matchup against the Wolves is a favorable one, as Minnesota is ranked 16th in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Despite missing John Wall, the Wizards have an implied total of 110.5 points.

Tomas Satoransky has flashed upside as the Wizards’ starting point guard and should garner little to no ownership in tournaments tonight. His price has come down across the industry and the Wolves aren’t particularly stout against point guards. My profit on the year would be a lot higher if there was a self-exclusion option on Bradley Beal. He’s one of those players that I never seem to be on the right side of. With that said, he sees a big production boost with Wall out of the lineup and a significant matchup boost with Jimmy Butler out for the Wolves.

Otto Porter is slightly overpriced on FanDuel and slightly underpriced on DraftKings. The Wolves are ranked second in efficiency against small forwards this season, but that’s largely thanks to Butler, who will not be in the lineup tonight. Markieff Morris is volatile and draws a difficult matchup against Taj Gibson. In an 11-game slate, we should be able to find better options at power forward. Marcin Gortat playing time is not trending in the right direction, but he is only $3,700 on FanDuel if you need to punt the position.

Notable Injuries

John Wall (Out)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 107.2 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (9 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (12 of 22)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Tomas Satoransky $5,800 $5,400 $10,400 17.1 6.7 20.6 10.9 0.83 15.1% 15 19 21
Bradley Beal $8,400 $8,600 $16,100 38.0 -1.3 36.4 -0.2 1.04 26.0% 28 17 28
Otto Porter $7,400 $6,400 $12,500 31.2 0.0 31.9 -0.1 0.98 17.4% 2 1 10
Markieff Morris $5,600 $5,300 $10,900 23.0 3.8 26.7 2.6 0.86 16.3% 4 5 14
Marcin Gortat $3,700 $4,500 $8,500 22.8 -5.4 25.6 -5.0 0.89 14.0% 27 7 21
Kelly Oubre $5,400 $4,600 $9,000 21.9 1.7 27.8 0.1 0.79 16.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter (DK)

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter (DK), Tomas Satoransky (GPP), Marcin Gortat (FD)


Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total 211.5 Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Implied Team Total 102.8 Implied Team Total 108.8
Pace Projection +/- 1.9 Pace Projection +/- -1.0
Projected Starters Cory Joseph Victor Oladipo Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Projected Starters Ben Simmons J.J. Redick Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 12 18 21 16 12 DvP 10 5 13 10 25
DRPM Rat. 1 26 1 24 2 DRPM Rat. 19 1 26 7 17

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won seven of their last ten games and are currently in third place in the Eastern Conference standings. There is a chance that they could host a first-round playoff series or drop all the way down to the six seed. Tonight’s matchup against the Sixers is not an appealing one, as Philadelphia is ranked fifth in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential. The Pacers have an implied total of 102.8 points, which is the third lowest on the board and three points below their season average.

When we have slates with a lot of games, there is no need to take additional risks by targeting players in bad matchups. I plan to have very little exposure to the Pacers tonight. Cory Joseph and Darren Collison will continue to cut into each other’s minutes and fantasy production. Victor Oladipo will have to lock horns with Robert Covington, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. The one and only player that stands out here is Myles Turner, who has averaged 32 minutes and 34 fantasy points over his last five games.

Notable Injuries

None

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (20 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 (20 of 22)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (5 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Cory Joseph $5,000 $4,500 $8,500 19.2 6.2 27.3 7.4 0.70 14.8% 2 12 1
Victor Oladipo $9,500 $8,700 $16,000 42.6 -3.1 34.3 -0.8 1.24 27.6% 23 18 26
Bojan Bogdanovic $5,600 $5,200 $10,200 21.9 8.7 30.9 2.0 0.71 16.4% 9 21 1
Thaddeus Young $5,100 $4,800 $9,300 26.3 -11.2 32.5 -2.9 0.81 15.2% 9 16 24
Myles Turner $6,800 $6,200 $12,200 30.1 3.9 28.5 3.5 1.06 17.6% 6 12 2
Domantas Sabonis $4,600 $4,600 $9,100 25.4 -8.8 24.9 -4.8 1.02 18.9% N/A N/A N/A
Darren Collison $5,000 $4,900 $9,700 27.2 -2.5 30.0 -7.6 0.91 18.4% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Myles Turner (GPP)


Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are hoping to make a run in the next few weeks. They are currently in sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings, but only trail the Pacers by two games. A win tonight would cut that deficit in half. As for the matchup, this is a mediocre one for fantasy production. On the season, Indiana is ranked between tenth and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Sixers have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is close to their season average.

Ben Simmons is coming off of a quiet five-game stretch, but his price has come all the way down to $8,000 on DraftKings. Given the wealth of options at every position, I wouldn’t call Simmons a core play, but he is certainly on my radar for tournaments. J.J. Redick has seen a decline in his playing time and production since the Sixers picked up Marco Belinelli. For tonight, both can be avoided against the Pacers. Robert Covington has been terrific over his last five games, but I always hesitate to target volatile players when they are priced at a premium.

One of the key injuries to monitor tonight is the availability of Dario Saric. If he is active, it’s business as usual for the Sixers’ frontcourt. If Saric is ruled out, Ersan Iyasova would draw the start and immediately become one of the top value plays of the slate. Joel Embiid is priced under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and draws an elite matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked 22nd in efficiency and 25th in DvP against centers. In a game that the Sixers desperately want to win, I’m expecting a big outing from their superstar.

Notable Injuries

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Questionable)
Dario Saric (Questionable)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.9 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (15 of 22)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ben Simmons $9,000 $8,000 $14,700 41.0 -3.5 34.6 -1.4 1.19 22.9% 5 10 19
J.J. Redick $4,800 $5,000 $9,600 25.1 -3.5 31.2 -2.8 0.81 19.5% 20 5 1
Robert Covington $6,000 $5,900 $13,000 27.3 6.3 32.2 -1.8 0.85 15.1% 5 13 26
Dario Saric $6,700 $6,400 $12,400 28.5 2.7 30.6 -2.0 0.93 18.4% 19 10 7
Joel Embiid $9,800 $9,300 $17,600 44.7 -8.0 31.2 -1.9 1.43 28.1% 22 25 17
Ersan Ilyasova $4,300 $4,100 $8,100 22.1 -0.3 25.1 -2.7 0.88 15.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid, Ersan Ilyasova (if Saric is out)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (DK), Robert Covington


Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks New York Knicks
Vegas Total 216.0 Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Implied Team Total 108.8 Implied Team Total 107.3
Pace Projection +/- -0.5 Pace Projection +/- -2.0
Projected Starters Dennis Smith Yogi Ferrell Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Dwight Powell Projected Starters Emmanuel Mudiay Courtney Lee Tim Hardaway Lance Thomas Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 27 19 22 14 11 DvP 20 11 9 18 6
DRPM Rat. 30 18 18 17 29 DRPM Rat. 29 2 29 21 4

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are in full tank mode right now. They are a team that desperately needs some young talent and every win from here on out is going to cost them ping pong balls in the lottery. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are also tanking on purpose. This will be a game where neither team is really trying to win, which makes it tough to predict when it comes to fantasy production. With that said, the Mavericks have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is six points above their season average.

Wesley Matthews has been ruled out for the remainder of the season, which basically opens up 34 minutes in the rotation every night. Dennis Smith may pick up a few extra minutes per game, especially since the Mavericks want him to improve as much as possible. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Knicks, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the position this season. Yogi Ferrell should slide into the starting lineup and push for 30+ minutes in a favorable matchup. He’s a serviceable value play in all formats. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Ferrell over J.J. Barea, who has seen a decline in his playing time over the last few games.

Harrison Barnes has played well on a per-minute basis over the last two weeks, but the Mavericks seem content in playing him 30-32 minutes rather than the 33-35 that he was playing earlier in the season. I’m not going to talk you out of Barnes tonight, but he’s not really on my radar. The same goes for Dirk Nowitzki, who has only averaged 22.6 minutes over his last five games. Dwight Powell and Nerlens Noel would have some appeal in a smaller slate, but there are better value plays available tonight.

Notable Injuries

Wesley Matthews (Out)
Salah Mejri (Out)

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.3 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 6.5 (4 of 22)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (17 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Dennis Smith $6,900 $6,600 $12,300 27.5 4.4 29.7 3.0 0.93 26.5% 19 27 30
Yogi Ferrell $4,500 $4,400 $8,600 19.1 -1.7 29.1 0.1 0.66 15.0% 16 19 18
Harrison Barnes $6,500 $6,300 $12,700 30.1 0.4 34.2 -2.3 0.88 21.9% 29 22 18
Dirk Nowitzki $5,200 $5,400 $10,400 24.5 -0.1 24.9 -2.3 0.99 18.8% 9 14 17
Dwight Powell $5,900 $5,700 $11,000 19.8 6.6 20.8 4.1 0.95 14.0% 12 11 29
J.J. Barea $5,700 $5,500 $10,800 23.9 -2.3 23.4 -1.2 1.02 25.1% N/A N/A N/A
Nerlens Noel $4,200 $3,800 $7,400 13.8 9.4 13.7 4.7 1.01 12.4% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Smith, Yogi Ferrell

Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes, Nerlens Noel (DK)


New York Knicks

The Knicks own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft, so they are one of the many teams in tank mode. They haven’t been subtle in their tanking, as they have been limiting their veterans’ minutes since the All-Star break. While they are a difficult team to trust, they draw a favorable matchup against the Mavericks, who are ranked 19th in defensive efficiency and 29th in rebounding differential. The Knicks have an implied total of 107.3 points, which is three points above their season average.

Emmanuel Mudiay has scored 27 and 28 fantasy points in his last two games and should push for around 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Mavericks. In case you have been hiding under a rock, Dennis Smith is one of the worst defenders in all of basketball. Tim Hardaway has not been impacted by the Knicks limiting minutes, as he has averaged 35 minutes and 31 fantasy points over his last five games. He’s certainly viable in tournaments against a Mavericks’ team that is ranked 24th in efficiency against small forwards. I prefer Mudiay over Trey Burke (not enough minutes) and Frank Ntilikina (not productive enough). Courtney Lee, Lance Thomas, Michael Beasley, and Enes Kanter are all fades for me tonight. Kanter is the one player that will garner some ownership, but I have a hard time paying a premium for someone that has played fewer than 23 minutes in six of his last eight games.

Notable Injuries

Enes Kanter (Questionable)
Lance Thomas (Questionable)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (14 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (13 of 22)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (25 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,900 $5,000 $9,500 17.0 1.3 19.4 6.5 0.88 23.2% 26 20 29
Courtney Lee $3,500 $3,600 $6,700 22.9 -8.4 31.3 -7.6 0.73 16.4% 7 11 2
Tim Hardaway $6,500 $6,400 $13,300 28.7 2.4 32.9 2.4 0.87 22.1% 24 9 29
Lance Thomas $3,500 $3,000 $6,300 9.0 2.9 18.4 2.9 0.49 9.3% 6 18 21
Enes Kanter $6,900 $6,900 $12,900 31.0 7.8 25.8 -0.6 1.20 18.9% 21 6 4
Trey Burke $4,200 $4,900 $9,600 18.1 -0.3 16.4 2.6 1.11 27.2% N/A N/A N/A
Kyle O’Quinn $5,500 $4,700 $8,900 20.1 7.1 17.1 2.7 1.18 15.5% N/A N/A N/A
Frank Ntilikina $4,000 $3,600 $7,100 14.3 0.3 21.0 6.3 0.68 16.4% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Emmanuel Mudiay (GPP), Tim Hardaway (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Emmanuel Mudiay (Cash), Tim Hardaway (Cash)


Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total 218.0 Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Spread -9.0 Vegas Spread 9.0
Implied Team Total 113.5 Implied Team Total 104.5
Pace Projection +/- 1.6 Pace Projection +/- 0.7
Projected Starters Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas Projected Starters Spencer Dinwiddie D’Angelo Russell Allen Crabbe DeMarre Carroll Jarrett Allen
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 28 10 14 28 30 DvP 6 3 4 8 18
DRPM Rat. 5 28 24 7 28 DRPM Rat. 3 22 19 13 14

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have won eight straight games and are the odds-on favorite to end the season with the best record in the Eastern Conference. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Toronto has an implied total of 113.5 points, which is the sixth highest on the board. Perhaps more importantly, the game features a spread of only nine points.

Spencer Dinwiddie is a good defender when you look at his DRPM, but the Nets as a whole are ranked 27th in efficiency and 28th in DvP against point guards. If this game stays close and Kyle Lowry plays 35 minutes, he could easily reach and exceed value. DeMar DeRozan is also viable tonight in tournaments, as his price has come down to $8,100 on FanDuel and $7,700 on DraftKings. OG Anunboy is not expected to play tonight, which opens the door for Fred VanVleet and C.J. Miles off the bench. While both have been productive recently, there are better value plays in tonight’s slate.

The Raptors’ frontcourt is very intriguing tonight. On the season, the Nets are ranked 27th or worse in both efficiency and DvP against power forward and centers. They also have the tenth worst rebounding differential in the league. This is a great spot for both Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas and I expect both to carry low ownership in tournaments. There will be a few players from the Raptors that have big games tonight, the trick is trying to figure out which ones. It’s not the worst idea to get a little exposure to all of them if you are making multiple lineups.

Notable Injuries

OG Anunboy (Doubtful)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.2 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (6 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (14 of 22)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (7 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,000 $7,600 $13,800 34.8 2.4 32.1 -0.1 1.09 21.9% 27 28 5
DeMar DeRozan $8,100 $7,700 $14,100 38.6 -3.2 34.1 0.3 1.13 28.6% 8 10 28
Norman Powell $3,700 $3,200 $6,200 11.3 -0.9 16.1 2.3 0.70 16.9% 7 14 24
Serge Ibaka $5,200 $5,300 $10,400 24.9 -3.7 27.2 -3.8 0.91 17.2% 27 28 7
Jonas Valanciunas $7,300 $5,900 $12,800 25.9 10.1 22.5 4.9 1.15 18.3% 29 30 28
Fred VanVleet $4,800 $4,400 $8,500 18.5 3.0 19.5 3.8 0.95 19.8% N/A N/A N/A
Jakob Poeltl $4,700 $3,800 $7,200 17.6 -0.2 18.4 0.0 0.96 12.4% N/A N/A N/A
C.J. Miles $3,500 $3,800 $7,400 16.1 0.8 18.6 2.4 0.86 20.0% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), DeMar DeRozan (GPP), Serge Ibaka (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), DeMar DeRozan (Cash), Serge Ibaka (Cash), Jonas Valanciunas (Cash)


Brooklyn Nets

The Nets aren’t going to make the playoffs, but unlike most teams in their situation, they can still win basketball games without it impacting their future. The Nets do not own their first round pick in the upcoming draft, so they have no incentive to tank. Tonight’s matchup against the Raptors is far from ideal, but the Nets come into the game with an implied total of 104.5 points. If this game stays competitive, it has some sneaky shootout potential. Basically, if you are planning to use some Raptors in tournaments tonight, it makes sense to bring it back with a Nets’ player or two.

Spencer Dinwiddie draws an awful matchup against Kyle Lowry, but he grades out as a nice point-per-dollar target on DraftKings. He’s only $5,500 despite averaging 29 fantasy points per game on the season and 35 fantasy points in his two meetings against the Raptors. D’Angelo Russell draws the best matchup of the five starters and has shown massive upside if you want to give him a look in tournaments. I don’t have a ton of interest in the rest of the Nets. Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll are typically better targets in smaller slates. Caris LeVert has been playing well off the bench, but he is priced up across the industry. If Jarrett Allen is unable to suit up, I would give a significant boost to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who has averaged 28 fantasy points over his last five games.

Notable Injuries

Jarrett Allen (Questionable)

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (17 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 (18 of 22)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $6,300 $5,500 $10,600 29.3 -1.1 29.2 1.6 1.00 22.6% 3 6 3
D’Angelo Russell $7,000 $6,200 $12,200 27.1 0.1 25.3 3.4 1.07 29.0% 21 3 22
Allen Crabbe $4,600 $4,900 $9,900 22.0 1.4 29.5 0.7 0.75 17.3% 1 4 19
DeMarre Carroll $6,100 $5,500 $10,600 26.6 4.8 29.8 -0.5 0.89 18.3% 8 8 13
Jarrett Allen $4,600 $4,700 $9,000 18.3 -0.4 18.9 2.8 0.97 14.1% 10 18 14
Caris LeVert $5,300 $5,100 $10,000 24.4 4.6 25.9 0.2 0.94 21.2% N/A N/A N/A
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $5,600 $5,600 $9,900 28.1 -0.1 27.8 -1.6 1.01 20.5% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (DK GPP), D’Angelo Russell (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (DK Cash), D’Angelo Russell (FD GPP), Caris LeVert (GPP), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson


Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total 214.5 Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Spread -6.0 Vegas Spread 6.0
Implied Team Total 110.3 Implied Team Total 104.3
Pace Projection +/- 0.8 Pace Projection +/- -0.6
Projected Starters Russell Westbrook Corey Brewer Paul George Carmelo Anthony Steven Adams Projected Starters Dennis Schroder Tyler Dorsey Taurean Prince John Collins Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 24 21 30 27 28 DvP 5 20 8 11 2
DRPM Rat. 29 24 26 15 13 DRPM Rat. 8 20 5 27 20

Oklahoma City Thunder

My take on the Thunder last night did not work out as hoped. I figured that they would be able to take care of business at home against the Kings and potentially get their starters some rest in the fourth quarter. Given the way basketball works, that will probably happen tonight. I hope that’s not the case though, as they draw an elite matchup against the Hawks, who are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Thunder have an implied total of 110.3 points, which is nearly four points higher than their season average.

Russell Westbrook has as much upside as any player in the slate tonight. We have to make some difficult decisions with our lineups because Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Westbrook are all in great spots. The Hawks have long struggled against point guards, ranking 24th in DvP this season. Cory Brewer continues to play well as the starting point guard and against a young, turnover-prone Hawks’ team, I don’t mind going back to him in tournaments.

The Hawks are ranked dead last in efficiency and DvP against small forwards this season, which makes Paul George an enticing option in tournaments. I expect his ownership to be reasonable, especially at his current price point. Carmelo Anthony is a player that I rarely target in DFS. He had a solid outing last night, but typically underwhelms in favorable matchups. Steven Adams is listed as questionable after leaving last night’s game with a hip injury. If he is unable to suit up, give a boost to Patrick Patterson and Jerami Grant.

Notable Injuries

Steven Adams (Questionable)

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 106.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.3 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6 (11 of 22)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.6 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (9 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,000 $11,500 $22,600 53.2 -6.1 36.2 -1.1 1.47 34.3% 22 24 29
Corey Brewer $4,100 $3,900 $7,600 9.6 9.9 13.6 11.5 0.71 13.3% 17 21 24
Paul George $9,000 $8,400 $15,800 39.1 -4.0 36.5 -0.7 1.07 23.5% 30 30 26
Carmelo Anthony $5,700 $5,800 $11,700 28.0 -4.0 32.2 -1.8 0.87 21.7% 20 27 15
Steven Adams $7,000 $6,800 $12,500 31.7 -3.5 32.6 -3.7 0.97 14.4% 14 28 13
Jerami Grant $4,000 $3,800 $7,300 17.3 1.2 20.7 -0.2 0.84 14.5% N/A N/A N/A
Patrick Patterson $3,600 $3,300 $6,400 9.7 4.6 15.8 5.4 0.61 10.1% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Corey Brewer (GPP), Paul George (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Corey Brewer (Cash), Paul George (Cash), Patrick Patterson & Jerami Grant (if Adams is out)


Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks own their first round pick in the upcoming draft, so they clearly have nothing to play for the rest of the season. They have already shut down Kent Bazemore for the rest of the year and will take a harder look at some of their younger players. Tonight’s matchup against the Thunder doesn’t look great on paper, but the Hawks are playing at home. Atlanta has an implied total of 104.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

Dennis Schroder would be a great play tonight if we knew that he was going to play 32-34 minutes. The problem is that Schroder has played fewer than 28 minutes in three straight games. Perhaps Bazemore being out changes that, but I wouldn’t trust him in a cash game setting. Tyler Dorsey will draw the start at shooting guard and should push for 30+ minutes. The Thunder have struggled against shooting guards since losing Andre Roberson and Dorsey is sitting at a very playable $3,800 on FanDuel. I see him as a low-risk, moderate-reward type of value play.

Isaiah Taylor should also see a significant boost in playing time, but I’ll give the edge to Dorsey. Taurean Prince put up a ridiculous 38/6/7 line against the Bulls on Sunday and nobody noticed because it was a day game. Prince owes me a few good games given how many times he has burned me this season, but I won’t be playing him tonight against Paul George. John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon are easy fades given the matchup and their respective price points.

Notable Injuries

Malcolm Delaney (Out)
Kent Bazemore (Out)
DeAndre Bembry’ (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (18 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 (16 of 22)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.6 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (19 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,400 $6,300 $12,400 32.9 -3.7 31.0 -2.7 1.06 29.1% 11 5 8
Tyler Dorsey $3,800 $4,100 $8,000 10.2 5.4 14.7 8.9 0.70 18.1% 17 20 20
Taurean Prince $6,100 $6,200 $12,000 24.3 6.2 29.9 -0.9 0.81 17.6% 14 8 5
John Collins $6,000 $5,400 $10,400 24.2 -0.5 23.0 4.2 1.05 15.6% 15 11 27
Dewayne Dedmon $6,000 $5,300 $10,700 23.6 2.8 23.9 3.8 0.99 14.4% 1 2 20
Isaiah Taylor $3,900 $3,700 $7,500 11.4 -2.4 14.9 1.8 0.77 18.3% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tyler Dorsey (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tyler Dorsey (DK), Dennis Schroder (GPP), Isaiah Taylor (GPP)


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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Incentives members on a daily basis during the NBA season with daily videos for the Court Report and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards..

    Notorious

    Interview after $100,000 Win

    January 5th, 2012 Daily Fantasy Fix

    February 14th, 2013 Daily Fantasy Fix

    footballguys.com Interview

Comments

  • JBH3

    • Ranked #85

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Hey did anyone see a tanking Kings team last night? I didn’t…. I saw a team hungry for a win, playing the OKC Thunder tough on the Thunder’s home turf. Not saying tanking does not affect DFS, it does mess with rotations, but the people on the court are not throwing the game, they are playing competitive basketball, so how much does tanking and games not counting need to be part of our narrative??? It doesn’t. We just need to know what players are going to see court time, regardless of the circumstances.

  • freyes80

    that is the tanking aspect though… When you don’t put out consistent rotations, the team is in fact tanking. It is has nothing to do w/ guys not trying, it has everything to do w/ coaching putting the best rotations together to compete night in and night out. So yes, tanking plays a huge role in DFS late in the season.

  • darkknight007

    • Blogger of the Month

    With a slate this big, it’s a wise DFS strategy to literally pretend certain games aren’t on the slate like I’ve been doing recently. Noto makes it easy to navigate the land mines and most of my exposure will come from page 2. The first page had a nice angle with Nemanja Bjelica and Dennis Smith but that’s about it for me. Bring on Page 2 where I think most of the action is with some solid games and the great debate, James or Davis?….. Noto the G.O.A.T

  • JBH3

    • Ranked #85

      RG Tiered Ranking

    ^ James AND Davis… ;)

  • rsimone

    @JBH3 said...

    Hey did anyone see a tanking Kings team last night? I didn’t…. I saw a team hungry for a win, playing the OKC Thunder tough on the Thunder’s home turf. Not saying tanking does not affect DFS, it does mess with rotations, but the people on the court are not throwing the game, they are playing competitive basketball, so how much does tanking and games not counting need to be part of our narrative??? It doesn’t. We just need to know what players are going to see court time, regardless of the circumstances.

    Just because their playing hard doesn’t mean their not tanking. You could still find value though. You can find value any night with any team. I had a couple of sacramento players going last night. As always it’s bogdanovich leading the charge. As long as his price doesn’t go too high he’s viable. But so is everyone. Especially in a GPP

  • sonic999

    • 335

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #44

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I think that’s about right on. Its all about the minutes. When guys are on the court, esp the young or unproven guys, they are going all out no matter the organizations view on winning games. The problem is tanking teams play oddball rotations and minutes fluctuate wildly, but if you find a guy getting mins with upside who cares if the team is “tanking”.

  • ropediddy

    Is there some kind of unwritten rule that the grinders crew not mention all the optimal plays to sway the ownership in your favor. No mention of Kornet playing 34 minutes last game? Seems a little shady Noto I thought you were better than the others.

  • ScoBran

    Enes probably isn’t going to play (Low minutes & limited @ practice) and the Mavs are the worst rebounding team in the NBA. Just sayin’.

  • darkknight007

    • Blogger of the Month

    @ScoBran said...

    Enes probably isn’t going to play (Low minutes & limited @ practice) and the Mavs are the worst rebounding team in the NBA. Just sayin’.

    Kyle O’Quinn action off the bench for low ownership as people chase Kornet

  • rsimone

    @ropediddy said...

    Is there some kind of unwritten rule that the grinders crew not mention all the optimal plays to sway the ownership in your favor. No mention of Kornet playing 34 minutes last game? Seems a little shady Noto I thought you were better than the others.

    Actually Means covered Kornet. Not all writers are high on him. He is viable

  • JBH3

    • Ranked #85

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @ropediddy said...

    Is there some kind of unwritten rule that the grinders crew not mention all the optimal plays to sway the ownership in your favor. No mention of Kornet playing 34 minutes last game? Seems a little shady Noto I thought you were better than the others.

    Its all subjective to one’s viewpoint.

    Noto will downplay a guy because he doesn’t like the matchup etc., but then STLCardinalsfan (Justin Zuiden) will have him in his Starting 5 GPP blog. It’s all subjective.

    I read the grind down for insight. I don’t go strictly by the plays provided as elite and secondary options. Just insight into the night’s slate.

  • rsimone

    @JBH3 said...

    Its all subjective to one’s viewpoint.

    Noto will downplay a guy because he doesn’t like the matchup etc., but then STLCardinalsfan (Justin Zuiden) will have him in his Starting 5 GPP blog. It’s all subjective.

    I read the grind down for insight. I don’t go strictly by the plays provided as elite and secondary options. Just insight into the night’s slate.

    Kanter is playing now so Kornet is less in play. Should still soak up minutes because the Knicks are tanking

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