NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-03-07 02:28:54

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Miami Heat at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		204.5					Vegas Total		204.5
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		100.3					Implied Team Total		104.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.3					Pace Projection +/-		-2.2
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Josh Richardson	Luke Babbitt	James Johnson	Hassan Whiteside		Projected Starters	Tomas Satoransky	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	14	8	26	1	5		DvP	4	13	2	7	7
DRPM Rat.	8	13	2	21	9		DRPM Rat.	22	9	24	14	1

Miami Heat

The Heat are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after beating the Suns last night in Miami. They now travel to the nation’s capital to take on the Wizards in a game that features the lowest over/under on the schedule. Washington is a mediocre matchup overall, ranking between 12th and 16th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 100.3 points, which is the lowest of the slate and two points below their season average.

In today’s Expert Survey, I picked the Heat as my team to fade completely. With nearly everyone healthy, they have one of the deepest rotations in basketball. Outside of Goran Dragic and Josh Richardson, we can’t project any of Miami’s players to see more than 30 minutes each night. Meanwhile, the Wizards are ranked 14th or better in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, power forwards, and centers. Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside are both great per-minute producers and offer nice upside, but they are deep tournament plays at best in an eight-game slate.

Notable Injuries

Wayne Ellington (Questionable)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 101.8 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (14 of 16)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dwyane Wade (GPP), Hassan Whiteside (GPP)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have lost three games in a row and have dropped all the way down to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. While they are playing at home tonight, their matchup is far from ideal. The Heat play at the fourth-slowest pace in basketball and are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wizards have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the fourth lowest of the slate and three points below their season average.

If I had to pick another team to fade tonight, it would likely be the Wizards. This is a poor matchup all around, as Miami is ranked above the league average in terms of efficiency and DvP against every position this season. Tomas Satoransky has cooled off after his solid stretch of play, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are extremely expensive, and both Markieff Morris and Kelly Oubre are too inconsistent to trust in any setting other than a large-field tournament. The one and only play on my radar from Washington is Marcin Gortat. He tends to play more minutes when facing a traditional center like Hassan Whiteside. In their last six meetings, Gortat has averaged 30 minutes and 26 fantasy points per contest.

Notable Injuries

Kelly Oubre (Probable)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 107.0 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (16 of 16)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Marcin Gortat (FD)

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat (DK)

Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		216.0					Vegas Total		216.0
			Vegas Spread		12.0					Vegas Spread		-12.0
			Implied Team Total		102.0					Implied Team Total		114.0
			Pace Projection +/-		0.8					Pace Projection +/-		0.8
Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Malcolm Miller	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	7	3	4	8	16		DvP	22	18	30	28	28
DRPM Rat.	3	22	12	13	14		DRPM Rat.	29	2	26	15	13

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have lost seven of their last ten games and are tied with four teams for the fourth-worst record in the NBA. They are already looking forward to the draft, as they own three first-round picks. With nothing to play for the rest of the way, we have to be wary of potential blowouts. Tonight’s game against the Raptors could certainly get ugly, as Toronto is listed as a 12-point favorite. In this difficult matchup, the Hawks have an implied total of only 102 points, which is the second lowest of the slate and two points below their season average.

Malcolm Delaney has been ruled out of tonight’s game, but he doesn’t quite move the needle enough for Dennis Schroder, Tyler Dorsey, or Isaiah Taylor to warrant consideration. Kent Bazemore has the best matchup of the five starters and has averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute this season. I wouldn’t recommend using Bazemore in cash games, but he’s an intriguing tournament play on FanDuel ($5,400). Taurean Prince has played well over his last five games, but I’m not falling for that trap again. John Collins has plenty of upside, but he is now priced as a starter. In this slate, we can find better options at power forward.

Notable Injuries

DeAndre’ Bembry (Out)
Malcolm Delaney (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.8 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (15 of 16)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore (FD)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are the odds-on favorite to secure the one seed in the Eastern Conference. They own a three-game lead (in the loss column) over the Celtics, who are the only team that can catch them at this point. While they draw a favorable matchup of the Hawks, the Raptors may not need the services of their starters for more than three quarters. Granted, predicting blowouts is extremely difficult in the NBA, but there are enough options that we don’t have to risk it in an eight-game slate.

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan could both have huge games if this stays competitive. While that’s certainly in question, there is enough upside to warrant the plays in tournaments. Given their salaries and positional differences, I slightly prefer Lowry on FanDuel ($7,700) and DeRozan on DraftKings ($7,800). OG Anunboy’s absence opens up minutes in the rotation, but they won’t get soaked up by one individual. Delon Wright and Fred VanVleet have some appeal as deep tournament plays, but would likely need a blowout to truly be difference-makers in this slate. Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas should have plenty of success against a Hawks’ frontcourt that is ranked 26th in rebounding differential. They are far from core targets of mine given the large spread of the game, but you can make a case for them in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

OG Anunboy (Out)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.9 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.0 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 (7 of 16)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (FD GPP), DeMar DeRozan (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (DK GPP), DeMar DeRozan (FD GPP), Serge Ibaka (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		-1.5					Vegas Spread		1.5
			Implied Team Total		108.5					Implied Team Total		107.0
			Pace Projection +/-		0.7					Pace Projection +/-		1.9
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	10	24	15	18		DvP	11	20	22	16	12
DRPM Rat.	18	12	10	13	9		DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	24	2

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers continue to make noise in the East. They have won seven of their last ten games and could realistically end up with home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Hornets, who tend to play stout defense at home. These two teams combined for 209 points in their meeting last week, so the 215.5 point total seems a bit high. With that said, the Sixers’ implied total of 108.5 points is slightly above their season average.

Ben Simmons had a strong first quarter against the Hornets last week, but they were able to contain him the rest of the game. At his price point, I don’t have a ton of interest in Simmons tonight. J.J. Redick minutes and fantasy production have both gone down since the Sixers brought in Marco Belinelli. For now, we can safely avoid both in DFS. Robert Covington has finally started showing signs of life, scoring at least 22 fantasy points in four straight games. Once again, Covington is viable in tournaments on DraftKings ($4,900).

Dario Saric is one of my favorite players to watch, but he has a difficult time reaching value at this price point when Joel Embiid is in the lineup. It doesn’t help that Ersan Ilyasova is now playing 20-22 minutes off the bench every night. Embiid is the only player from the Sixers’ frontcourt that I have interest in. He was able to get Dwight Howard into foul trouble in their last meeting and finished the game with 52 fantasy points. I will continue to fire up Embiid on DraftKings as long as his price is below $10,000.

Notable Injuries

Justin Anderson (Questionable)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 (10 of 16)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid (DK), Robert Covington (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (FD), Robert Covington (DK Cash)

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have lost three games in a row and basically need a miracle if they are going to make the playoffs. They currently trail the eighth-seeded Bucks by six games with only 18 to play. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential. The Hornets have an implied total of 107 points, which is the sixth lowest of the slate and nearly identical to their season average.

Kemba Walker is going to fly under the radar tonight, despite a suppressed price tag. While I don’t love relying on past performance against specific teams, it doesn’t hurt that Walker played well against the Sixers last week (42 fantasy points). Given his upside and projected low ownership, he’s one of my favorite tournament plays at point guard. Nicolas Batum has been on a tear over his last five games, but I’m not sure his recent FP/min (1.25) is sustainable.

Marvin Williams is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, which could open the door for both Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Frank Kaminsky. Williams only averages 26 minutes per game, but most of those would go to MKG and Frank the Tank. If Williams is ruled out, I will bump both players up to elite plays in all formats. Dwight Howard has an appealing price point on DraftKings ($6,700) and I’m sure he wants another crack at Joel Embiid. While I’m worried about foul trouble, Howard is an excellent tournament play at this price point.

Notable Injuries

Marvin Williams (Questionable)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.4 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.6 (11 of 16)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Dwight Howard (DK GPP), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist & Frank Kaminsky (if Williams is out)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Dwight Howard (FD GPP)

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		220.5					Vegas Total		220.5
			Vegas Spread		-5.0					Vegas Spread		5.0
			Implied Team Total		112.8					Implied Team Total		107.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		0.7
Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Josh Huestis	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	19	8	14	2		DvP	6	16	11	4	25
DRPM Rat.	8	3	5	27	21		DRPM Rat.	2	18	14	9	3

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are hoping to extend their 15-game winning streak tonight, as they take on the Thunder in Oklahoma City. It still blows my mind that James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Kevin Durant all played for the Thunder at one point in time. As far as the matchup goes, this isn’t a great one for fantasy production. The Thunder are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Rockets still have the fifth highest implied total of the slate, but their team total is actually lower than their season average.

Chris Paul is one of those players that performs his best against tough competition. I would rather target Paul in a matchup against Russell Westbrook than I would against D.J. Augustin. Paul seems to take these battles personally and his track record against Westbrook shows that. He has scored at least 49 fantasy points in four of their last six meetings. I love the price point on Paul and will be targeting him in all formats tonight. James Harden has the revenge narrative in his corner and he benefits immensely from Andre Roberson being out of the lineup. I’m not sure that I want to play Paul and Harden together, so in my main lineups, I will likely roll out Paul on DraftKings ($7,900) and Harden on FanDuel ($11,400).

Ryan Anderson and Joe Johnson have both been ruled out of tonight’s game. Trevor Ariza should play 33-35 minutes at a reasonable price point across the industry. P.J. Tucker will also be heavily involved and is priced just above the minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Eric Gordon has some tournament appeal, after averaging 30 fantasy points per game over his last five. Clint Capela is finally playing a full complement of minutes on a regular basis. While Steven Adams is a good low-post defender, the Rockets are going to pick-and-roll him to death. This is a sneaky-good spot for Capela and the center position is surprisingly weak for an eight-game slate.

Notable Injuries

Joe Johnson (Out)
Ryan Anderson (Out)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 114.0 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (13 of 16)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, James Harden, Clint Capela

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are one of eight teams that are vying for the last six spots in the Western Conference. It’s fun to see so many teams bunched up in the standings, as it will provide a fun finish to the season. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked 13th in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency. The Thunder have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the ninth highest on the board and one point above their season average.

Russell Westbrook has one of the worst individual matchups of the slate. Chris Paul is an elite defender and as a whole, the Rockets are ranked fourth in efficiency against point guards. With that said, Westbrook is matchup-proof and is playing in what should be a close, high-scoring game. I like the idea of pairing Westbrook with either Paul or James Harden in tournaments. Paul George is one of the best small forward options on FanDuel tonight (which isn’t saying much). He should see 38-40 minutes against a Rockets’ team that is ranked 24th in efficiency against small forwards. Steven Adams offers a high floor, but I’d rather pay a little bit more and target the other center in this game (hint: he plays for the Rockets).

Notable Injuries

Carmelo Anthony (Probable)

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (9 of 16)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (FD), Paul George (FD)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (DK), Paul George (DK), Steven Adams

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets							Dallas Mavericks
			Vegas Total		217.0					Vegas Total		217.0
			Vegas Spread		-5.0					Vegas Spread		5.0
			Implied Team Total		111.0					Implied Team Total		106.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.1					Pace Projection +/-		-0.5
Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Gary Harris	Wilson Chandler	Paul Millsap	Nikola Jokic		Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Yogi Ferrell	Harrison Barnes	Dirk Nowitzki	Dwight Powell
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	21	11	10	24	9		DvP	28	6	17	23	19
DRPM Rat.	29	2	29	21	4		DRPM Rat.	27	5	19	2	12

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have won seven of their last ten games and would just sneak into the playoffs if the regular season ended today. While the Mavericks play at a slow pace, they are still an exploitable matchup for fantasy production. On the season, Dallas is ranked 20th in defensive efficiency and dead last in rebounding differential. The Nuggets have an implied total of 111 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate and two points above their season average.

Jamal Murray is a sneaky tournament play tonight, as he will fly under the radar at the loaded point guard position. Dennis Smith is one of the worst defenders in basketball and Murray should push for minutes in the low to mid-30s. Gary Harris is slightly overpriced on FanDuel and slightly underpriced on DraftKings ($6,300). He’s not a core play for me tonight, but certainly on my radar as potentially the last piece into my lineups.

Wilson Chandler and Will Barton both seem overpriced now that Paul Millsap is back in the mix. Speaking of Millsap, in his first three games back from injury, he has averaged 26 minutes and 31 fantasy points. His playing time will only increase from here, so take advantage of this price tag while you still can. Nikola Jokic has a great matchup on paper, but his usage and fantasy production has taken a hit with Millsap back in the lineup. I will be avoiding Jokic until his production picks up or his price comes down.

Notable Injuries

Torrey Craig (Out)

Denver Nuggets Offense

Points Per Game: 108.7 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (6 of 16)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray (GPP), Gary Harris (DK)

Secondary Plays – Will Barton (DK)

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks own their first-round draft pick, so they have nothing to play for in the last month of the season. The tanking race is on and the Mavericks are one of the front-runners. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 25th in defensive efficiency this season. Dallas has an implied total of 106 points, which is nearly four points higher than their season average.

Rick Carlisle scares me at this point in the season. The Mavericks clearly don’t want to win, so why would they play their best players a full complement of minutes each night? Nerlens Noel was a great example on Sunday. He had an excellent first half, but Carlisle decided to hold him out until the last few minutes of the game. I’m going to have a hard time trusting any of the veterans moving forward, which hurts the appeal of Harrison Barnes, J.J. Barea, and Dirk Nowitzki. Try as I might, I can’t find many small forwards that I like on FanDuel, which puts Barnes into consideration as an elite play.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Dallas tonight, as this is still a favorable matchup. Dennis Smith draws one of the best matchups on the board and the Mavericks want to develop him as much as they can. Smith should play minutes in the low to mid-30s and has 40+ fantasy point upside at a price under $7,000. With Wesley Matthews out, Yogi Ferrell will likely draw another start at shooting guard. He put up a dud in his start on Sunday but offers decent value on both FanDuel ($4,000) and DraftKings ($4,300). Dwight Powell should see a few extra minutes tonight, as the Nuggets have two bigs on the floor for most of the game. Powell hasn’t been a great play when his ownership is high (much like Marcus Smart), but luckily he should fly under the radar tonight.

Notable Injuries

Wesley Matthews (Out)

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.2 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (5 of 16)

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Smith, Dwight Powell (GPP), Harrison Barnes (FD)

Secondary Plays – Dwight Powell (Cash), Yogi Ferrell

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