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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-17 21:14:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Dallas Mavericks Indiana Pacers
dallasnba Vegas Total 205.0 indiananba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 98.90 Team Pace 99.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Raymond Felton Wesley Matthews Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 4 30 6 16 17 Opp. Season 23 7 11 26 7
Opp. Last 7 4 28 1 20 18 Opp. Last 7 16 15 23 29 11

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 14-11 — Road: 8-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Mavericks have lost five of their last ten games, but are still three games above .500 for the season. They have been on the road for a large portion of their season, as 15 of their first 26 games have been away from home. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on a good defensive team in the Pacers. The Mavericks are 3.5-point underdogs with an implied team total of 100.8 points, which is slightly higher than the median of the 24 teams in action tonight.

The Pacers may not be an elite defense, but they are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. This is far from a great matchup for the Mavericks. When we add in the fact that Dallas is a well-balanced offense that only has a few players that average more than 30 minutes per game, we may want to avoid them tonight for fantasy purposes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Raymond Felton

Felton deserves consideration tonight for two reasons. First off, he draws a favorable matchup against Monta Ellis and the Pacers, who are ranked dead last against shooting guards this season. The second reason is his form. Over his last five games, he has averaged 31.3 fantasy points in 34.8 minutes per contest.

FD — $5,100 — PG
DK — $5,200 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 16.0
Min/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 31.3

Indiana Pacers

Record: 14-9 — Home: 8-3 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are now 14-9 on the season. Indiana is projected to score 104.3 points tonight, which is the sixth highest team total on the board tonight. Tonight’s game is expected to stay close throughout, which is always good for fantasy production.

The Mavericks’ defense has become synonymous with the term mediocre. On the season, they are ranked between 13th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers find themselves in an exploitable matchup tonight at home. Paul George is listed as questionable with an illness, but is fully expected to play.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

It’s a great time to buy low on George, as his price has come down across the industry. If tonight’s slate was smaller, he would be listed as an elite play. However, his recent level of production brings him down to a secondary play on DraftKings and a borderline elite play on FanDuel. Over his last five games he has only averaged 40.7 fantasy points per contest.

FD — $9,400 — SF
DK — $9,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.5 | Last Five Games: 27.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 42.3 | Last Five Games: 40.7

Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Charlotte Hornets Orlando Magic
charlottenba Vegas Total 197.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 99.3
Team Pace 98.40 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker P.J. Hairston Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 21 4 15 13 18 Opp. Season 6 9 9 28 19
Opp. Last 7 15 6 19 19 8 Opp. Last 7 20 18 8 10 6

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 14-9 — Road: 4-5 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets have won seven of their last ten games and have quietly improved their record to 14-9 on the season. They haven’t been great on the road, but they draw a winnable matchup tonight against the Magic. The Hornets are 1.5-point underdogs tonight with their team total set at 97.8 points. The issue here is that their total is five points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

The Magic have an underrated defense. They were a team that we picked on often last season, but that is no longer the case. They are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Al Jefferson will miss another game tonight, which solidifies the minutes for Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller in the frontcourt.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

Walker has seen a small usage boost with Al Jefferson out. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 35.9 fantasy points in 32.6 minutes per contest. He is a little too expensive on FanDuel, but is very playable on DraftKings. However, dollar for dollar, I prefer Elfrid Payton over Walker.

FD — $7,900 — PG
DK — $7,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 21.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.9 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 35.9

Nicolas Batum

Even though this is a good spot for Batum, a low team total and an elevated price point bring him down to a secondary play tonight. He has really picked up his play recently, averaging 35 fantasy points per game in his last five outings. The Magic have been average against opposing small forwards this season (15th in DvP).

FD — $7,400 — SF
DK — $7,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 21.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 35.0

Cody Zeller

Marvin Williams is also worth a look, but considering the price gap, Zeller is the better value of the two. He has had similar production over the last five games, averaging 22.4 fantasy points compared to 21.7 fantasy points for Williams. Zeller is also a much better play on FanDuel, where he is $800 cheaper than he is on DraftKings.

FD — $3,900 — PF
DK — $4,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 16.2
Min/Game — Season: 22.1 | Last Five Games: 26.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 22.4

Orlando Magic

Record: 13-11 — Home: 7-4 — Last 10: 7-3

The Magic have won seven of their last ten games. They are now 13-11 on the season with a 7-4 record at home. Tonight they host the Hornets, who are basically a carbon copy of Orlando. Both teams play at a similar pace, have similar offensive numbers, and are both play stout defense. The Magic have an implied team total of 99.3 points, which is slightly lower than their average points scored per game this season.

As mentioned above, the Hornets have played well on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The one position that the Hornets have really struggled to defend is power forward. However, Channing Frye should not be on your radar in any league format.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Vucevic could be considered an elite play tonight at on DraftKings, where his price is just too low. His minutes have been up recently (with the exception of a couple of blowouts) and he draws a decent matchup against the Hornets at home. This is a matchup where he could easily reach that double-double bonus, as the Hornets are under-sized in the frontcourt.

FD — $7,300 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 31.6

Elfrid Payton

If you take out the game against the Cavaliers (which was a blowout by halftime), Payton has been playing his best basketball of the season. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He has also played at least 32 minutes in each of the last six games that weren’t blowouts.

FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $6,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 30.5
FP/Game — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 32.5

Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves New York Knicks
minnesotanba Vegas Total 200.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 98.60 Team Pace 97.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 7 22 5 6 12 Opp. Season 22 15 7 12 15
Opp. Last 7 27 3 15 14 19 Opp. Last 7 25 22 12 18 17

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 9-15 — Road: 6-5 — Last 10: 3-7

The Wolves are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after losing yet another home game last night (they are now 3-10 on the season). They have a quick turnaround tonight, as they head to New York to take on the Knicks in New York. The Wolves are only projected to score 97.8 points tonight, which is 4.6 points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

The Knicks have dropped a bit in the defensive rankings, but they are still ranked 17th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This could be a good spot to fade the Wolves altogether. Not only is the matchup less than ideal, but the Wolves have a deep and inconsistent rotation.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

New York Knicks

Record: 11-14 — Home: 5-7 — Last 10: 3-7

The Knicks are looking to end their recent slide, where they have lost seven of their last ten games. They have a good chance to get back on track tonight, as they are 5-point favorites at home against the Wolves. New York has an implied team total of 102.8 points in this matchup. Not only is that the ninth highest team total on the board, but it is also 5.5 points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

The Wolves played defense well early on, but continue to drop in the defensive rankings. They are now ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Knicks should have a good night offensively, against a Wolves’ team that is playing their second game in as many nights.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

In DFS, it’s important to draw the line between being a fan and having biases for or against players. I am a huge Porzingis fan, but there have been very few times when I have actually used him in DFS this season. In my opinion, his price has been too expensive for the number of minutes that he is playing. I’m back on the bandwagon tonight, though (on FanDuel anyway). His price has come down and he draws a favorable matchup against the Wolves at home.

FD — $6,300 — PF
DK — $7,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 18.5
Min/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 24.7
FP/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 19.3

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Anthony’s production has been down this season, but he is still averaging 35.8 fantasy points per game. It seems like the site’s are still giving him credit for what he has done in year’s past though, as he doesn’t warrant a price over $8,000. Thanks to the elevated price point, Anthony is more of a secondary play tonight at small forward.

FD — $8,400 — SF
DK — $8,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 25.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 34.9

Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Miami Heat Brooklyn Nets
miaminba Vegas Total 190.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 190.0
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 93.0
Team Pace 96.00 Team Pace 98.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 28 25 22 7 23 Opp. Season 3 3 26 3 10
Opp. Last 7 28 4 4 17 29 Opp. Last 7 9 24 25 12 7

Miami Heat

Record: 14-9 — Road: 3-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Heat have lost five of their last ten games. While they are 14-9 on the season, they haven’t fared well in their eight road games, posting a 3-5 record. Miami has an implied team total of 97 points tonight against the Nets, who have not been great defensively this season. Even though that seems like a low total, it is actually 1.2 points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

The Nets are ranked eighth in rebounding differential, but they have not fared well defensively. On the season, they are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. If you look at the DvP table above, the Nets are ranked 22nd or worse against point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, and centers. Hassan Whiteside may appear to be a great play on paper, but he hasn’t played more than 30 minutes in any of his last eight games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade

While I like the matchup for the Heat as a whole, it’s hard to trust any individual player. Wade is in a good spot tonight, but he is listed as questionable with an illness. The other issue is that the Heat seem to monitor his minutes carefully against bad teams. If Wade is in the lineup, he is a decent secondary play at shooting guard. If he is unable to play, Gerald Green and Chris Bosh would both see a small boost.

FD — $6,900 — SG
DK — $6,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 25.2
Min/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 27.8

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 7-17 — Home: 6-6 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nets are only 7-17 on the season, but six of those wins have come at home. That could help explain why they are only 4-point underdogs tonight against a talented Heat team. Brooklyn is only projected to score 93 points tonight. Not only is that three points lower than their average points scored per game this season, but it is also the third lowest team total on the board.

The Heat play at a slow pace and have an elite defense. That’s a terrible combination for the fantasy production of their opponents. On the season, Miami is ranked second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. With 12 games on the schedule tonight, there is no reason to force any of the Nets’ players into your lineup(s).

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young

Young is a bit overpriced for his matchup tonight against the Heat, but I had to mention him because he has posted seven double-doubles in his last nine games. He is also coming off of a strong five-game stretch, where he has averaged 33.2 fantasy points in 34.4 minutes per contest.

FD — $7,000 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 18.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 33.2

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Boston Celtics Detroit Pistons
bostonnba Vegas Total 199.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 100.90 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 5 14 2 23 9 Opp. Season 1 16 23 22 16
Opp. Last 7 8 11 6 23 10 Opp. Last 7 7 5 20 24 27

Boston Celtics

Record: 14-11 — Road: 7-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics have to be a little dejected today, after losing their last two games to the Warriors and Cavaliers. Obviously, it’s hard to judge where a team is at mentally, but this could be a bad spot for Boston. They now have to turnaround and face the Pistons tonight in Detroit. They are listed as 2-point underdogs with their team total set at only 98.8 points.

The Pistons have quietly become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. In the second half of a back-to-back against a tough defense, the Celtics are an easy fade tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Detroit Pistons

Record: 14-12 — Home: 9-4 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and are sporting an impressive 9-4 record at home. Tonight they host the Celtics, who they may be competing against for playoff positioning at the end of the season. The Pistons have an implied team total of 100.8 points in this matchup, which is 1.5 points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

The Celtics play with a quick tempo, but they have still managed to play great defense this season. They force a lot of turnovers and are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. This isn’t the best matchup on paper, but again, the Celtics may not be as pumped up for tonight’s game, after a disappointing loss against the Cavaliers last night.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

Jared Sullinger has the body, but he doesn’t have the length to keep Drummond off of the glass. Drummond has had at least 18 points and at least 15 rebounds in five of his last seven games. He has mixed in a couple of bad games in between, but all that has done is keep his price down.

FD — $9,100 — C
DK — $9,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 19.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 32.3
FP/Game — Season: 43.2 | Last Five Games: 37.9

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

Reggie “GPP” Jackson is worth a look tonight. The Celtics have been tough on point guards this season, but we aren’t looking to use him in cash games, anyway. Jackson has that boom or bust nature to his game, which makes him a strong tournament play in a game where the Pistons are projected to score over 100 points.

FD — $7,800 — PG
DK — $7,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 27.0
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 32.5

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Minutes are precious in daily fantasy basketball and there are few players that play as many minutes per game as Caldwell-Pope. He is coming off of a strong five-game stretch, where he averaged 28.2 fantasy points in 38.2 minutes per game. He is more of a secondary play tonight though, because Avery Bradley is an excellent defender.

FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.4 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Min/Game — Season: 37.2 | Last Five Games: 38.2
FP/Game — Season: 23.0 | Last Five Games: 28.2

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious