NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 20th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
We have a massive 12 game slate on tap tonight, so I will try to keep the team analysis to a minimum and instead focus on my favorite plays in each game. I will also look to save some time on the games that have little to no fantasy appeal.
Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 18 | 25 | 11 | 5 | DvP | 4 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 24 | |
Toronto Raptors
Once again, FanDuel decided to leave the first game of the night off of their slate, which means we have until 7:30 ET to finalize lineups. DraftKings and FantasyDraft both have their main slates starting at 7:00 ET, so keep that in mind when building lineups. The Raptors draw a fairly difficult matchup against the Hornets, who play much better defense at home than they do on the road. The Raptors have an implied total of 107 points, which is nearly four points below their season average.
In a 12 game slate, I have a hard time paying over $8,000 for Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan on DraftKings, especially given how many good value plays there are at point guard and shooting guard. The Hornets aren’t particularly effective at defending opposing backcourts, but there are better point-per-dollar plays than Lowry and DeRozan tonight. Jonas Valanciunas is the only Raptors’ player that I have interest in tonight. He typically sees a spike in minutes when facing a true center like Dwight Howard and he’s been in great form over his last four games, averaging 36 fantasy points per contest.
Notable Injuries
Lucas Nogueira (Out)
C.J. Miles (Out)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 110.9 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (7 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -3.9 (20 of 24)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,200 | $14,000 | 35.5 | -0.8 | 33.0 | 0.2 | 1.07 | 21.3% | 18 | 22 | 18 | |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,300 | $15,300 | 38.5 | 2.6 | 34.3 | -0.5 | 1.12 | 28.1% | 16 | 18 | 7 | |
| OG Anunoby | $3,700 | $7,100 | 12.5 | 0.7 | 20.6 | 3.5 | 0.61 | 11.1% | 22 | 25 | 5 | |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,900 | $12,100 | 25.8 | 9.7 | 27.8 | 4.0 | 0.93 | 16.9% | 11 | 11 | 16 | |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,400 | $10,400 | 23.1 | 13.0 | 21.3 | 5.5 | 1.08 | 17.5% | 11 | 5 | 7 | |
| Jakob Poeltl | $3,800 | $7,100 | 16.1 | -1.7 | 16.7 | 2.6 | 0.96 | 13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (DK)
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets rarely win on the road, but they do sport a 9-8 record at home. Unfortunately, their matchup against the Raptors is less than ideal. On the season, Toronto is ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets’ implied total of 104.5 points is right around the average of the 24 teams in action tonight. Kemba Walker has an elite usage rate and good splits at home, but draws one of the toughest individual matchups a point guard can have. Kyle Lowry is a great on-ball defender and as a whole, the Raptors are ranked first in efficiency against point guards.
Nicolas Batum is finally rounding into form, averaging 35 minutes and 29 fantasy points over his last four games. He has by far the best matchup of the five starts, as the Raptors are ranked 30th in efficiency and 25th in DvP against shooting guards this season. I’ve been fading Batum all season, but may have a few shares tonight on DraftKings ($5,600). He’s really the only player from this game that deserves cash game consideration. Dwight Howard is always viable in large-field tournaments, but I will gladly take DeAndre Jordan over him at a similar price point.
Notable Injuries
None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.2 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (13 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (10 of 24)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,100 | $14,100 | 36.2 | -5.2 | 35.2 | -0.9 | 1.03 | 26.4% | 1 | 4 | 7 | |
| Nicolas Batum | $5,700 | $11,300 | 25.1 | 4.3 | 30.9 | 4.2 | 0.81 | 17.9% | 30 | 25 | 24 | |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.8 | 5.3 | 27.1 | 2.6 | 0.81 | 15.1% | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Marvin Williams | $4,300 | $8,400 | 19.0 | -4.4 | 26.4 | -1.1 | 0.72 | 12.5% | 10 | 9 | 20 | |
| Dwight Howard | $7,600 | $13,700 | 35.3 | 4.5 | 30.2 | 2.3 | 1.17 | 20.1% | 5 | 13 | 24 | |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,700 | $9,100 | 25.9 | -7.3 | 27.0 | -3.0 | 0.96 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.5 | 0.2 | 22.9 | -1.2 | 0.81 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nicolas Batum (DK)
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP)
Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | George Hill | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Garrett Temple | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 26 | 21 | 28 | 24 | 28 | DvP | 12 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 19 | 3 | 19 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 15 | 17 | 12 | 20 | 28 | |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after beating the Sixers in Philadelphia last night. They go from one favorable matchup to another, as they take on the Nets tonight in Brooklyn. The Nets play at a fast pace and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, which is why the Kings’ implied total is four points higher than their season average. George Hill was given the night off last night, but should have fresh legs in an elite matchup against the Nets. With De’Aaron Fox ruled out, Hill has a chance to play 28-30 minutes against a defense that is ranked 28th in efficiency against point guards. Hill is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board and I don’t mind him in cash games if you have a high tolerance for risk.
Outside of Hill, there isn’t a lot to love from Sacramento. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Hield, and Frank Mason would all be fine plays in a smaller slate, but all three are too inconsistent to trust at their current price points. Zach Randolph will likely garner some ownership at power forward, but I’m a bit skeptical. He played 28 minutes last night against the Sixers and is only averaging 23.6 minutes in the second half of back-to-back games this season. If you want to target a big man against Brooklyn, I’d rather play Willie Cauley-Stein. I expect him to play as many (if not more) minutes than Randolph and he’s considerably cheaper.
Notable Injuries
De’Aaron Fox (Out)
George Hill (Probable)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 96.2 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (17 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (4 of 24)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.8 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $4,600 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 19.3 | 8.5 | 26.0 | 4.3 | 0.74 | 16.5% | 28 | 26 | 4 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $4,700 | $4,500 | $9,900 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 24.5 | 3.5 | 0.77 | 17.7% | 28 | 21 | 19 |
| Garrett Temple | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 16.4 | 1.7 | 24.8 | -1.5 | 0.66 | 14.5% | 8 | 28 | 3 |
| Zach Randolph | $6,800 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 28.7 | 3.2 | 26.0 | 0.8 | 1.10 | 24.4% | 25 | 24 | 19 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $6,000 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 24.1 | -0.5 | 25.1 | 2.9 | 0.96 | 18.3% | 25 | 28 | 11 |
| Buddy Hield | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 21.3 | -1.5 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.93 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Mason | $4,200 | $4,000 | 15.5 | 3.7 | 18.9 | 2.6 | 0.82 | 21.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – George Hill (GPP)
Secondary Plays – George Hill (Cash), Willie Cauley-Stein
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are playing at home where they should be able to control the pace of the game. This is important because the Kings are ranked 28th in pace this season. If the Nets can control the tempo, there should be plenty of fantasy production to go around. The Kings are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential. The Nets have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is the tenth highest of the slate. Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging well over a fantasy point per minute this season and I have no issues targeting point guards against the Kings. The problem is the opportunity cost at point guards. There are some truly elite value plays available tonight, which makes Dinwiddie more of a GPP play.
Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, and Caris LeVert are all intriguing tournament plays as well, although they are tough sells with all of the value plays available at shooting guard and small forward. The one player that I plan to be overweight on from the Nets is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. He burned a lot of bridges the other night, but we can’t hold one bad outing against him when the team was blown out in the second half of a back-to-back. He has played at least 34 minutes in three of his last six games and should find success against one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball.
Notable Injuries
None
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (10 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (16 of 24)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,300 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 28.5 | 4.2 | 26.6 | 2.0 | 1.07 | 22.7% | 20 | 12 | 15 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,900 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 20.2 | -0.1 | 28.0 | 3.9 | 0.72 | 16.7% | 8 | 13 | 17 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,800 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 26.0 | -5.3 | 29.3 | -1.5 | 0.89 | 17.4% | 18 | 12 | 12 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,400 | $6,100 | $11,600 | 28.0 | 3.3 | 27.8 | 1.1 | 1.01 | 19.4% | 24 | 16 | 20 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 16.7 | 0.6 | 19.0 | 1.6 | 0.88 | 15.0% | 29 | 30 | 28 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 24.4 | 0.0 | 26.6 | 1.9 | 0.92 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jarrett Allen | $3,900 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 14.2 | -2.3 | 16.3 | -0.3 | 0.87 | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK)
Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (GPP)
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.5 |  | Vegas Total | 199.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 95.3 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Johnson | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Bam Adebayo | Kelly Olynyk | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 12 | DvP | 10 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 24 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 16 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat are going to be short-handed again tonight, as they take on the Celtics in Boston. They are going to be without three of their key pieces in the frontcourt and it looks like Goran Dragic will be out as well. While that doesn’t bode well for their chances of winning, it does open the door for a number of players in DFS. The Heat’s matchup against the Celtics is far from ideal, but their projected total of 95.3 points has to come from somewhere.
Tyler Johnson underwhelmed in his start the other night, but he played 39 minutes in a game that didn’t go into overtime. With Dragic expected to miss another game, Johnson becomes one of the top value plays at any position. His matchup against the Celtics isn’t great, but he should play 35+ minutes and he is averaging 0.75 FP/min on the season. Dion Waiters is a bit overpriced on DraftKings, but firmly in play on FanDuel ($5,800). He is going to shoulder the load offensively for the Heat.
Josh Richardson has finally gotten aggressive on the offensive end of the floor. Over his last four games, he is averaging 36 fantasy points per contest. With all of the injuries to the Heat, Richardson has 40 minute upside. Again, the matchup isn’t great, but the increased playing time and usage makes up for it. This is a revenge spot for Kelly Olynyk, but I have more interest in Jordan Mickey off the bench. He is averaging 1.09 FP/min this season and should play minutes in the 20s tonight.
Notable Injuries
Justise Winslow (Out)
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
James Johnson (Out)
Goran Dragic (Doubtful)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.2 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.3 (23 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -5.0 (21 of 24)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Johnson | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 20.7 | 0.1 | 27.7 | 2.4 | 0.75 | 17.1% | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| Dion Waiters | $5,800 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 24.5 | 4.0 | 31.2 | 3.2 | 0.79 | 23.2% | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Josh Richardson | $5,800 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 21.8 | 14.4 | 32.9 | 3.8 | 0.66 | 14.7% | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| Bam Adebayo | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 16.0 | 5.6 | 18.2 | 9.5 | 0.88 | 12.3% | 18 | 6 | 2 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $5,900 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 20.6 | 4.4 | 21.7 | 7.1 | 0.95 | 17.0% | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Jordan Mickey | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 9.8 | 1.09 | 13.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,200 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 14.9 | 7.8 | 21.4 | 6.9 | 0.70 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, Dion Waiters (FD), Jordan Mickey (DK)
Secondary Plays – Dion Waiters (DK), Jordan Mickey (FD), Kelly Olynyk (GPP)
Boston Celtics
The Celtics continue to win basketball games and they continue to get undervalued by the oddsmakers. They are playing at home against a struggling Heat team that is missing four of their best players and they are only 9-point favorites. Don’t get me wrong, I want the game to stay close, it just seems like a lot of the Celtics’ lines this year have been a little too low. I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into the Heat’s defensive numbers on the season because they are going to be without most of their best defenders.
The Heat have been tough on point guards this season, but Tyler Johnson is not a great individual defender. Kyrie Irving has some tournament appeal tonight, especially since most people will be looking to pay down at point guard. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are fine plays in a vacuum, but there are better point per dollar plays at their respective positions. Al Horford has been in great form over his last four games (40 fantasy points per contest), but is priced near DeAndre Jordan, who I will be loading up on in a matchup against the Suns.
Notable Injuries
Daniel Theis (Questionable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (14 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (9 of 24)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,000 | $8,000 | $14,300 | 37.7 | 2.0 | 32.0 | 0.3 | 1.18 | 29.5% | 8 | 10 | 24 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,700 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 26.2 | 1.6 | 31.3 | 0.1 | 0.84 | 17.9% | 11 | 9 | 25 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,600 | $5,600 | $12,100 | 26.6 | 2.5 | 30.5 | -0.8 | 0.87 | 15.5% | 11 | 13 | 5 |
| Al Horford | $7,800 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 34.8 | 5.9 | 32.8 | 1.4 | 1.06 | 18.0% | 8 | 15 | 17 |
| Aron Baynes | $4,100 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 15.1 | 0.7 | 18.4 | 5.1 | 0.82 | 14.0% | 20 | 3 | 16 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,600 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 23.9 | 0.5 | 30.4 | 0.9 | 0.79 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash)
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.0 | Vegas Spread | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.3 | Implied Team Total | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 25 | DvP | 20 | 11 | 4 | 18 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 8 | 1 | 28 | 6 | 10 | |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers and Hawks doesn’t seem like a game that we should be getting excited about for DFS. However, the spread is set at four points and the game features a total of 214.5 points. This could be one of the sneakier game to target in the slate. The Pacers have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the third highest on the board and one point above their season average. Darren Collison has been a headache this season and not the type of player that I want to take a chance on in a 12 game slate. He does have an exploitable matchup against Dennis Schroder, but he’s more of a 1-in-10 play (if you are making ten lineups, maybe plug him into one).
Victor Oladipo has an elite true usage rate, he has 40 minutes upside, and he draws a nice matchup against the Hawks. Atlanta is ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards, even though Kent Bazemore is an above-average defender. Oladipo always has GPP-winning type of upside and he could get overlooked tonight. Thaddeus Young is always a decent option in cash games given his high floor, but the Lakers have three power forwards that intrigue me in a matchup against the Rockets. Myles Turner minutes are trending in the right direction and the Hawks are one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball. He’s a viable GPP play, especially on DraftKings ($6,600).
Notable Injuries
None
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.3 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (3 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 (7 of 24)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 28.0 | -0.6 | 30.7 | -1.2 | 0.91 | 18.5% | 24 | 15 | 30 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,600 | $9,200 | $16,700 | 42.7 | 2.6 | 34.5 | 3.5 | 1.24 | 27.4% | 7 | 26 | 2 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,800 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 20.4 | -2.7 | 31.4 | -1.5 | 0.65 | 15.7% | 30 | 26 | 20 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,100 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 28.6 | 2.2 | 33.6 | 0.5 | 0.85 | 15.7% | 22 | 26 | 9 |
| Myles Turner | $7,600 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 31.5 | -3.6 | 30.2 | 1.9 | 1.04 | 17.7% | 22 | 25 | 9 |
| Cory Joseph | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.9 | -2.1 | 24.9 | 0.6 | 0.72 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 19.1 | 2.5 | 22.1 | 1.4 | 0.86 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Thaddeus Young (Cash), Myles Turner (DK)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks and Pacers both play at an above-average pace and they are both ranked in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. This game has some shootout potential and I don’t expect it to be a popular target. The Hawks have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is the tenth highest overall and two points above their season average. The problem that I have with Atlanta is that the matchup doesn’t suit their strengths. The Pacers are stout against point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards, while they hemorrhage fantasy points to opposing frontcourts. As we know, the Hawks’ frontcourt has struggled to stay healthy all season. I would love to target John Collins here, but he hasn’t played more than 23 minutes since coming back from his injury and he’s priced above $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Doubtful)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (10 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (5 of 24)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,800 | $7,300 | $13,400 | 34.0 | 0.1 | 32.0 | -0.3 | 1.06 | 28.9% | 13 | 20 | 8 |
| Kent Bazemore | $6,300 | $6,500 | $12,300 | 28.9 | 13.2 | 28.7 | 0.4 | 1.01 | 19.9% | 14 | 11 | 1 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,800 | $6,400 | $12,900 | 26.2 | 4.5 | 31.2 | 0.2 | 0.84 | 17.0% | 4 | 4 | 28 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,000 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 20.5 | -0.5 | 23.5 | 4.5 | 0.87 | 16.2% | 28 | 18 | 6 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,600 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 10.7 | -0.8 | 16.5 | 4.2 | 0.65 | 10.0% | 28 | 29 | 10 |
| John Collins | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 24.8 | 2.3 | 22.7 | -2.3 | 1.09 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 95.0 | Implied Team Total | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Rodney Hood | Joe Ingles | Joe Johnson | Derrick Favors | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Dakari Johnson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 18 | DvP | 17 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 10 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 27 | 11 | 5 | 7 | |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz draw one of the worst matchups on the board, they are sizable underdogs on the road, and they are missing their best two players in Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. This is one of those games that could get away from the Jazz and if so, the starters won’t see a full complement of minutes. The Jazz have an implied total of 95 points, which is the lowest on the board and eight points below their season average.
Even though Mitchell and Gobert being out opens up some usage in this offense, I’m not going overboard on my Jazz exposure tonight. Ricky Rubio, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles, and Alec Burks are all viable tournament options, but I will not be looking to target them in cash games. The most appealing play here is Derrick Favors. He is averaging 19.5 fantasy points when Gobert is active and 36.6 fantasy points when Gobert is out. He sees a boost with Steven Adams doubtful and his price is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Donovan Mitchell (Out)
Derrick Favors (Probable)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 102.9 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.0 (24 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -7.9 (23 of 24)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.3 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $5,100 | $5,100 | $10,900 | 25.8 | 0.8 | 29.1 | 1.4 | 0.89 | 20.7% | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Rodney Hood | $5,700 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 25.0 | 2.9 | 28.3 | 0.0 | 0.88 | 24.3% | 12 | 4 | 1 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,300 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 23.9 | 0.8 | 30.5 | 4.6 | 0.78 | 15.5% | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Joe Johnson | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 12.9 | -0.6 | 20.7 | 3.7 | 0.62 | 17.3% | 14 | 10 | 17 |
| Derrick Favors | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 26.1 | -11.8 | 27.3 | -6.0 | 0.96 | 16.8% | 7 | 18 | 8 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $4,400 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 14.5 | 6.5 | 17.2 | 1.8 | 0.84 | 13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alec Burks | $3,800 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 18.1 | -3.3 | 19.5 | -1.8 | 0.93 | 21.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Derrick Favors
Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles, Alec Burks
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have a tough matchup on paper, but the Jazz have a much different defense when Rudy Gobert isn’t on the floor. The Thunder currently have an implied total of 102.5 points, which is slightly higher than their season average. I tend to trust Vegas more often than not and they are expecting a solid game from the Thunder’s offense. Russell Westbrook is always one of my favorite superstars to pay up for because he has such a high floor and a high ceiling. The issue is that point guard is loaded with options, especially in the lower tier. Westbrook does have a nice track record against the Jazz though, and he should be able to attack the rim without Gobert manning the middle.
After Westbrook, there isn’t a lot to love from Oklahoma City. Paul George has been quiet since returning from injury. While he grades out as a decent target at small forward, he didn’t even crack my top five point-per-dollar plays at his position in my Consensus Value Rankings (available to premium members). Carmelo Anthony has taken a backseat in this offense and can be avoided until we see him break out of this slump.
Notable Injuries
Steven Adams (Doubtful)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 101.9 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (16 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.6 (8 of 24)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,400 | $11,400 | $23,400 | 51.0 | 7.3 | 36.5 | 3.6 | 1.40 | 34.1% | 12 | 17 | 5 |
| Andre Roberson | $4,300 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 16.8 | 5.1 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 0.63 | 8.0% | 19 | 3 | 27 |
| Paul George | $7,900 | $7,400 | $14,200 | 37.9 | -3.6 | 37.2 | 1.4 | 1.02 | 23.1% | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,400 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 30.0 | -7.4 | 33.3 | 3.0 | 0.90 | 22.4% | 9 | 2 | 5 |
| Dakari Johnson | $3,800 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 0.91 | 13.4% | 2 | 10 | 7 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,900 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 17.5 | -0.3 | 21.5 | -2.1 | 0.81 | 14.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |