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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-10 20:03:18

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics – 7:00 PM

Chicago Bulls Boston Celtics
chicagonba Vegas Total 200.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 100.10 Team Pace 101.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 17 24 18 14 Opp. Season 22 15 22 7 27
Opp. Last 7 3 3 22 20 27 Opp. Last 7 10 28 9 21 30

Chicago Bulls

Record: 11-7 — Road: 4-4 — Last 10: 6-4

The Bulls have won six of their last ten games and are now 11-7 on the season. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics in a game that could be played at a sneaky-fast pace. Both of these teams average at least 100 possessions per 48 minutes and judging by the projected pace in the NBA First Look, this could be the fastest-paced game on the board tonight.

Even though the Celtics play at a fast pace, they have been very good defensively this season. They are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bulls are projected to score 98.8 points, which is exactly how many points they are averaging per game this season.

I’m not sure that I would call Isaiah Thomas an elite defender, but the Celtics have held opposing point guards to the fewest fantasy points per game this season. Derrick Rose has been playing much better recently, but with ten games on the schedule, he is more of a tournament play tonight. Jimmy Butler aka “Jimmy Minutes” is a safe cash game play, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective with a healthy Rose playing next to him. Pau Gasol is the top target here. Even though he rarely sees more than 30 minutes, he has averaged 44.3 fantasy points per game in his last five. He is a borderline elite play on DraftKings – $7,700.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

FD — $8,500 — PF
DK — $7,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 26.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 28.9
FP/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 44.3

Jimmy Butler

FD — $8,200 — SG
DK — $7,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 38.6
FP/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 31.6

Boston Celtics

Record: 12-9 — Home: 6-4 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics are involved in way too many blowouts. They seem to win or lose by 20 every time they take the floor. While that’s usually bad news for the fantasy production of the starters, tonight’s game against the Bulls is expected to be close. The Celtics are 3-point favorites in a game that features a total of 200.5 points.

The Bulls are a lot like the Celtics in that they play at a quick pace, but still have an elite defense. Chicago is ranked eighth in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency this season. The Celtics have an implied team total of 101.8 points, which is slightly lower than their average points per game this season.

Isaiah Thomas will continue to run the show while Marcus Smart is out. There are few players in the NBA that can put points on the board as quickly as Thomas. He draws a decent matchup against Derrick Rose and he has averaged 37.8 fantasy points per game in his last five. His price has caught up to his recent level of production though, which makes him more of a secondary play at point guard. Jared Sullinger is an intriguing option down low. The Bulls are ranked 27th against centers this season and big Sully has topped the 30-minute mark in four of his last nine games.

Elite Plays

Jared Sullinger

FD — $6,000 — PF
DK — $6,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 27.1
FP/Game — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 26.1

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD — $8,000 — PG
DK — $8,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 37.8

Jae Crowder

FD — $5,200 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 14.1
Min/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 25.7

Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Houston Rockets Washington Wizards
houstonnba Vegas Total 215.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 106.0 Team Proj. 109.0
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 101.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley Marcus Thornton James Harden Clint Capela Dwight Howard Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 10 28 30 15 4 Opp. Season 25 19 28 30 21
Opp. Last 7 11 29 2 18 1 Opp. Last 7 21 10 14 29 21

Houston Rockets

Record: 10-12 — Road: 4-5 — Last 10: 5-5

Right when we start to think the Rockets are back on track, they go and lose to the Nets. They now have to turn around and face the Wizards in the second half of a back-to-back. This game should be played at a very quick pace, as both teams have averaged over 100 possessions per 48 minutes this season.

Statistically, the Wizards have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. Name a category and they are likely near the bottom defensively. They are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Rockets are projected to score 106.0 points tonight, which is the second-highest team total on the schedule.

There are two injury situations that we need to monitor throughout the day. The Rockets have been resting Dwight Howard in back-to-back sets and since they played last night, it’s possible that he gets tonight off. If that’s the case, give a nice boost to both Terrence Jones and Clint Capela. Trevor Ariza hurt his back and was unable to return to last night’s game. He is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but he is looking more doubtful. If he is unable to go, Marcus Thornton and Corey Brewer would both see a nice boost. Regardless of who is in the lineup, James Harden deserves consideration as the top shooting guard on the board. He is in a nice bounce-back spot after struggling against the Nets. Patrick Beverley is also worth a look if you need a cheap play at point guard. He has averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game in his last five.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD — $10,800 — SG
DK — $10,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 24.9
Min/Game — Season: 39.0 | Last Five Games: 37.4
FP/Game — Season: 47.1 | Last Five Games: 43.7

Patrick Beverley

FD — $4,100 — PG
DK — $4,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.0 | Last Five Games: 14.3
Min/Game — Season: 22.5 | Last Five Games: 28.3
FP/Game — Season: 15.8 | Last Five Games: 22.3

Secondary Plays

Terrence Jones

If Dwight Howard is ruled out.
FD — $5,600 — PF
DK — $5,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 17.3
Min/Game — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 22.8
FP/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 19.1

Clint Capela

If Dwight Howard is ruled out.
FD — $4,700 — C
DK — $5,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 14.4
Min/Game — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 22.7
FP/Game — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 17.9

Marcus Thornton

If Trevor Ariza is ruled out.
FD — $3,500 — SG
DK — $3,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 27.1
Min/Game — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 14.0
FP/Game — Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 19.6

Washington Wizards

Record: 9-10 — Home: 4-6 — Last 10: 4-6

The Wizards have lost six of their last ten games and are only 9-10 on the season. They have been playing short-handed recently, but are expecting to have at least one of their frontcourt players back in the lineup tonight. The Wizards are 3-point favorites at home against the Rockets in a game that features a total of 215 points.

Marcin Gortat is expected to play tonight, after missing the last couple of games to tend to his ailing mother in Poland. He should step right back in and play 30+ minutes tonight, especially if Nene Hilario and Drew Gooden are ruled out. Gortat’s price has come up, but he is a nice mid-range option at center, especially if Dwight Howard is ruled out. The backcourt duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal are both in play tonight at home. Patrick Beverley has been known as one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, but that hasn’t exactly shown in the numbers this season. Beal should have no trouble getting open looks with James Harden defending him. Otto Porter is also in play at small forward. He could see 35+ minutes again tonight if Hilario and Gooden are both out.

Elite Plays

John Wall

FD — $9,200 — PG
DK — $8,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 38.6
FP/Game — Season: 37.7 | Last Five Games: 49.2

Brad Beal

FD — $7,400 — SG
DK — $7,200 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 36.3 | Last Five Games: 39.6
FP/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 35.1

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat

FD — $6,200 — C
DK — $5,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 14.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 34.9
FP/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 34.9

Otto Porter

FD — $5,600 — SF
DK — $5,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 14.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 25.0

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Miami Heat Charlotte Hornets
miaminba Vegas Total 192.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 192.5
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 95.8
Team Pace 95.90 Team Pace 98.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Gerald Green Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Kemba Walker P.J. Hairston Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 5 9 11 28 23 Opp. Season 2 2 23 3 12
Opp. Last 7 24 12 5 28 26 Opp. Last 7 12 7 24 1 2

Miami Heat

Record: 12-7 — Road: 2-3 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat are 12-7 on the season, but they have only played five games on the road. Their record is likely going to take a hit in the next few weeks, as the majority of their games this month are away from home. The Heat are listed as 1-point favorites tonight against the Hornets in a game that features a total of 192.5 points.

The Hornets have played well defensively this season. They are ranked at or above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Heat are projected to score 96.8 points tonight, which is exactly the number of points they have averaged per game this season.

Luol Deng was a full participant in Tuesday’s practice, but they are going to wait and see how he feels today. He will likely end up being a game-time decision. If Deng is able to return to the lineup, that would end the run for Gerald Green as a value play. The best fantasy options against the Hornets this season have been in the frontcourt. Charlotte is ranked 28th against power forwards and 23rd against centers. Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside are the top targets here, but I’m not sure either stands out as an elite play at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Bosh

FD — $7,900 — PF
DK — $7,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 35.5
FP/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 34.4

Hassan Whiteside

FD — $7,700 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 11.9
Min/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 26.0
FP/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 26.7

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 12-8 — Home: 9-3 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets have won seven of their last ten games and are 9-3 at home this season. Even though they have been in great form recently, they are still 1-point underdogs at home tonight against the Heat. This will be a pace-down game for the Hornets, as the Heat are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA.

The Heat have a truly elite defense this season. In addition to their slow pace of play, they are also ranked second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. On the Spurs have a better combination of those three statistics. The Hornets are only projected to score 95.8 points tonight, which is 6.5 points lower than their average points per game this season.

This would typically be a good spot to fade the Hornets altogether, but Al Jefferson absence does open up some secondary plays here. Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller have both played well in Jefferson’s absence. Zeller remains a decent value play at power forward, despite a difficult matchup against Hassan Whiteside. Nicolas Batum could also be targeted in tournaments. He will have a low ownership level and we have seen the type of upside that he possesses.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum

FD — $7,500 — SF
DK — $7,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 34.7

Marvin Williams

FD — $5,100 — PF
DK — $5,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.9 | Last Five Games: 13.1
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 31.9
FP/Game — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 23.9

Cody Zeller

FD — $4,000 — PF
DK — $4,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 16.2
Min/Game — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 21.7
FP/Game — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 18.1

San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

San Antonio Spurs Toronto Raptors
sanantonionba Vegas Total 188.0 torontonba Vegas Total 188.0
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 91.3
Team Pace 96.00 Team Pace 96.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Terrence Ross Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 4 20 7 17 15 Opp. Season 18 1 1 2 1
Opp. Last 7 8 14 11 23 5 Opp. Last 7 5 1 6 3 6

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 18-4 — Road: 7-4 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs are coming off of a 51-point victory against the Sixers. The most impressive part was that they did it without Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili. They draw a much tougher matchup tonight, as they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors. This should be a very competitive game, but the Spurs are still 5.5-point favorites tonight.

The Raptors have been stout defensively this season, ranking 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Spurs are only projected to score 96.8 points, which is the fifth-lowest team total on the schedule tonight.

Kawhi Leonard is listed as probable for tonight’s game after missing the game against the Sixers with an illness. In an important game against the Raptors, he is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. As long as he plays, Leonard is one of the top fantasy options at small forward. He has been incredibly consistent this season and is the only Spurs’ player that I trust in cash games.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD — $8,800 — SF
DK — $8,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 23.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 39.2 | Last Five Games: 35.4

Secondary Plays

NONE

Toronto Raptors

Record: 13-9 — Home: 5-4 — Last 10: 6-4

The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and are 13-9 overall. While they have played well against tough opponents this season, they are going to have their hands full with the Spurs tonight. The Raptors are listed as 5.5-point underdogs in a game that has a very low total of 188 points.

The Spurs have the best defense in the NBA and it’s really not even close. They are ranked first in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. They also have the second best rebounding differential this season. The Raptors are only projected to score 91.3 points, which is the lowest team total on the board. It is also nine points lower than their average points per game this season.

It sounds like the Raptors will be without Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll again tonight. Even with those injuries, there aren’t any players on the Raptors stand out in tonight’s matchup against the Spurs. If you are considering anyone here, take a quick look at the DvP table above. I will be pulling an all-out Raptors fade tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Detroit Pistons
memphisnba Vegas Total 192.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 192.0
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 94.0 Team Proj. 98.0
Team Pace 97.00 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 6 14 4 19 9 Opp. Season 23 12 21 25 6
Opp. Last 7 9 8 17 15 18 Opp. Last 7 29 13 30 7 19

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 12-10 — Road: 5-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Grizzlies finally appeared to have turned the corner. Then they came out and got blown out by the Thunder on their own home floor. The Grizzlies seem to be able to beat the bad teams, but they have had some awful losses against the creme of the crop in the NBA. Tonight they travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons in what is expected to be one of the slowest-paced games of the night.

The Pistons have been very good defensively this season. They are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Grizzlies are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and are only projected to score 94.0 points tonight.

Marc Gasol rolled his ankle in last night’s loss to the Thunder. He is listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Pistons. If he is unable to suit up, Zach Randolph may have to play 35+ minutes tonight. Brandan Wright is still out and Jamychal Green is questionable. Mike Conley and Jeff Green would also see a small boost in Gasol’s absence, but neither player stands out in this matchup. If Gasol ends up playing, the Grizzlies can be avoided in all league formats.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Zach Randolph

FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $6,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 22.5

Detroit Pistons

Record: 12-10 — Home: 8-2 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons are another tough team to predict. They look good one night and then they look awful the next. They do have an impressive 8-2 record at home though. The Pistons are listed as 4-point favorites tonight against the Grizzlies in a game that features a low total of 192 points.

The Grizzlies have not played well on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This game is expected to be played at a slow pace though, and the Pistons are only projected to score 98.0 points.

There are two main fantasy options on my radar from the Pistons tonight. The first is Andre Drummond and his appeal hinges on the health of Marc Gasol. If Gasol is unable to suit up, Drummond will match up with the likes of Zach Randolph and JaMychal Green. I like his chances to post a big game in those matchups. Reggie Jackson is worth a look in tournaments. His 3.7 fantasy point outing against the Hornets is a perfect example of why he can’t be trusted in cash games. However, he has tremendous upside, which makes him a strong tournament play.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

FD — $9,200 — C
DK — $9,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 43.6 | Last Five Games: 42.5

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

FD — $7,300 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 24.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 36.7

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious