NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 28th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 207.5 | | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.0 | Implied Team Total | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Reggie Bullock | Stanley Johnson | Blake Griffin | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 11 | 28 | 18 | 5 | DvP | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 15 | 23 | 8 | 26 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 25 | 24 | 2 | 3 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back losing to the Wizards last night. They have a tougher matchup this time around, as they take on the Pistons in Detroit. On the season, the Pistons are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and 13th in defensive efficiency, but it’s worth pointing out that their defense has been significantly worse since they acquired Blake Griffin. The Bucks have an implied total of only 103 points, which is the second lowest of the slate and two points below their season average.
Even though their implied total is low, there is a lot to like from Milwaukee. Eric Bledsoe has routinely played minutes in the mid to upper-30s while Malcolm Brogdon has been out of the lineup and we can typically play him at sub-10% ownership in tournaments. Khris Middleton is slightly over-priced on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings ($6,700). The Pistons are ranked 22nd in efficiency and 28th in DvP against small forwards this season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off of a monster fantasy outing last night and is one of the top overall plays at any position tonight. The Pistons don’t have anyone that matches up well with him and as I mentioned earlier, the Pistons have been more concerned about their offense than their defense over the last few weeks. Jabari Parker played well last night, but has yet to play in the second half of back-to-backs. If he is cleared to play and expected to play around 24 minutes again, we can fire him up in all formats on FanDuel. If Parker is ruled out, John Henson becomes an intriguing tournament play on DraftKings at a price of only $4,700.
Notable Injuries
Matthew Dellavedova (Questionable)
Jabari Parker (Back-to-back)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.2 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (17 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (16 of 18)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,900 | $7,400 | 33.6 | 3.6 | 31.2 | 5.0 | 1.08 | 23.7% | 23 | 10 | 15 | |
| Tony Snell | $3,500 | $3,400 | 14.4 | -1.0 | 28.9 | -1.2 | 0.50 | 9.8% | 3 | 11 | 23 | |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $6,700 | 34.7 | -1.4 | 36.7 | -0.9 | 0.95 | 22.4% | 22 | 28 | 8 | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,000 | $10,500 | 53.1 | 3.9 | 37.3 | 2.2 | 1.42 | 28.2% | 16 | 18 | 26 | |
| John Henson | $5,900 | $4,700 | 23.8 | -3.6 | 25.5 | 3.7 | 0.93 | 13.1% | 16 | 5 | 5 | |
| Jabari Parker | $4,500 | $4,600 | 19.2 | 2.4 | 19.7 | 1.5 | 0.97 | 21.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker (FD – if active)
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (GPP), Khris Middleton (DK), Jabari Parker (DK – if active), John Henson (DK)
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons looked good in their first few games with Blake Griffin, but have struggled ever since. If the regular season ended today, they would be heading for the lottery instead of the NBA playoffs. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against the Bucks, who has been stout defensively since firing Jason Kidd. The Pistons’ implied total is slightly higher than their season average, but significantly lower than their recent implied totals. Overall, I am giving the Pistons’ offense a slight downgrade here.
Ish Smith has played well over his last five games, averaging 29 minutes and 30 fantasy points, but he draws a difficult matchup against Eric Bledsoe. The good news is that Smith’s price point has come down to a playable level on both FanDuel ($5,900) and DraftKings ($5,300). Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson offer decent value, but we can find better point-per-dollar targets in this slate. We should never settle when we have as many options as we do tonight.
Blake Griffin is the cheapest that he has been all season. His form is a huge concern for cash games, but I’m always willing to buy low on players in tournaments. Andre Drummond is easily the top target from the Pistons tonight. On the season, the Bucks are ranked 29th in efficiency and 26 in DvP against centers. In three meetings against Milwaukee this season, Drummond has averaged over 50 fantasy points per game and his price is more than reasonable on DraftKings ($9,600).
Notable Injuries
None
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (12 of 18)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $5,900 | $5,300 | 22.8 | 7.5 | 24.7 | 4.2 | 0.92 | 22.8% | 8 | 8 | 6 | |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,500 | $4,500 | 16.9 | 3.7 | 26.4 | 4.1 | 0.64 | 13.1% | 13 | 7 | 25 | |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,100 | $4,200 | 18.5 | -1.8 | 28.0 | -0.3 | 0.66 | 14.6% | 6 | 1 | 24 | |
| Blake Griffin | $7,600 | $7,700 | 39.3 | -13.2 | 34.3 | -1.0 | 1.15 | 27.6% | 1 | 9 | 2 | |
| Andre Drummond | $10,300 | $9,600 | 46.2 | -2.2 | 33.4 | 0.3 | 1.38 | 18.8% | 29 | 26 | 3 | |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,500 | $3,700 | 14.2 | -2.1 | 21.2 | -0.8 | 0.67 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Blake Griffin (GPP), Andre Drummond (DK)
Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin (Cash), Andre Drummond (FD), Ish Smith
Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 220.0 | | Vegas Total | 220.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -9.5 | Vegas Spread | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 114.8 | Implied Team Total | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | D.J. Augustin | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 28 | 23 | 26 | 23 | DvP | 6 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 19 | 27 | 30 | 25 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 22 | 4 | 11 | 11 | |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have won eight of their last ten games and currently hold the best record in the Eastern Conference. They have been a tough team to peg when it comes to DFS because they are involved in so many blowouts. It doesn’t help that they have one of the best benches in basketball. With that said, we have to love their matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Raptors have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is the third highest on the board.
While a blowout is possible, I’m willing to overlook it given the massive team total for Toronto. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are two of my favorite tournaments plays of the slate, as they should both exceed value if they see a full complement of minutes. They have elite matchups against a Magic defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to point guards and the third most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Serge Ibaka only played 56 games for the Magic, but it was the last team he played for before coming to Toronto. The revenge narrative is in play here and the matchup is certainly in his favor. The problem is that after three straight 35+ fantasy point outings, his price is up across the industry. I’m willing to play Ibaka in tournaments, but the price is a little steep for cash games. Jonas Valanciunas is typically a player that I avoid due to his limited playing time, but I will be firing him up tonight. His price has come down on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he gets to face a Magic team that is ranked 25th in efficiency against centers and 29th in rebounding differential.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 112.0 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.8 (3 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 (6 of 18)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,200 | $7,500 | 34.5 | 1.9 | 32.1 | -2.3 | 1.08 | 22.2% | 29 | 30 | 19 | |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,600 | $8,000 | 38.5 | -1.0 | 34.0 | -1.6 | 1.13 | 28.7% | 25 | 28 | 27 | |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,300 | 12.4 | -4.7 | 20.6 | -6.0 | 0.60 | 10.7% | 27 | 23 | 30 | |
| Serge Ibaka | $6,200 | $5,900 | 25.7 | 6.2 | 27.8 | -0.9 | 0.93 | 16.9% | 17 | 26 | 25 | |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $6,400 | $5,800 | 25.6 | 0.7 | 22.1 | 4.0 | 1.16 | 18.0% | 25 | 23 | 6 | |
| Delon Wright | $4,400 | $3,900 | 19.5 | -1.7 | 21.3 | -1.1 | 0.91 | 16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,400 | $3,800 | 17.4 | 2.4 | 18.2 | 1.6 | 0.96 | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), DeMar DeRozan (GPP), Serge Ibaka (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), DeMar DeRozan (Cash), Serge Ibaka (Cash), Jonas Valanciunas (Cash)
Orlando Magic
The Magic aren’t going anywhere this season and are currently tied with four other teams for the fewest number of wins in the NBA. While they are playing at home, their matchup against the Raptors is far from ideal. On the season, Toronto is ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Magic come into the game as 9.5-point underdogs and they have the sixth lowest implied total (105.3 points) on the board.
Now that Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are back in the lineup, there isn’t a lot to love from Orlando, especially in a difficult matchup against the Raptors. D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack will continue to share time at point guard, Jonathon Simmons has a tough matchup against OG Anunboy, and Mario Hezonja isn’t playing enough minutes to warrant consideration at his price point. Evan Fournier draws the best matchup of the five starters and is the preferred target here, but I doubt I will have any exposure to the Magic in a nine-game slate.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (13 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Augustin | $5,500 | $4,700 | 17.2 | 2.2 | 21.4 | 5.8 | 0.81 | 18.1% | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Evan Fournier | $5,900 | $5,300 | 28.0 | 2.3 | 32.5 | 1.2 | 0.86 | 20.8% | 20 | 5 | 22 | |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,100 | $5,000 | 22.8 | 2.8 | 29.1 | 1.9 | 0.78 | 19.3% | 1 | 5 | 4 | |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,600 | $7,000 | 34.7 | 0.9 | 33.7 | -4.1 | 1.03 | 21.3% | 10 | 8 | 11 | |
| Nikola Vucevic | $7,800 | $7,600 | 38.0 | -0.7 | 29.9 | -1.0 | 1.27 | 22.7% | 12 | 17 | 11 | |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,800 | $4,600 | 17.4 | 16.0 | 19.8 | 6.9 | 0.88 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 213.0 | | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.5 | Vegas Spread | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Cory Joseph | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | John Collins | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 16 | 30 | 27 | 29 | DvP | 9 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 27 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 1 | 28 | 12 | 19 | |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have quietly had a nice season. They are currently 34-26 and sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. They draw one of the best matchups on the schedule, as they face a Hawks’ team that is ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Despite playing on the road, the Pacers have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the eighth highest overall and two points above their season average.
Cory Joseph has flashed some upside recently and we have been targeting point guards against the Hawks all season. While I don’t love his price point on DraftKings, he certainly deserves a look on FanDuel ($5,100). Victor Oladipo got into early foul trouble on Monday night, which helps explain his down performance. I’m not overly concerned, as he has averaged well over 50 fantasy points per game with Darren Collison out this season. Bojan Bogdanovic and Lance Stephenson have both taken advantage of their increased roles with Collison out, but they are deep tournament fliers in a nine-game slate.
I mentioned that the matchup against the Mavericks was a blowup spot for Myles Turner, but I didn’t end up using him on Monday night. He ended up with 51 fantasy points and was one of the top tournament plays of the slate. While I don’t expect a repeat performance, he offers similar upside against a Hawks’ team that is ranked 29th in DvP against centers and 23rd in rebounding differential this season. Turner is too volatile and too expensive to use in cash games, but he offers great upside at sub-10% ownership in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Darren Collison (Out)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (8 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (10 of 18)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Joseph | $5,100 | $5,200 | $9,500 | 18.6 | 6.1 | 26.4 | 4.4 | 0.71 | 14.8% | 22 | 22 | 30 |
| Victor Oladipo | $10,000 | $9,000 | $16,100 | 42.8 | 9.1 | 34.2 | -1.5 | 1.25 | 27.5% | 14 | 16 | 2 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 20.9 | 2.9 | 30.7 | 3.0 | 0.68 | 16.2% | 30 | 30 | 27 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,300 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 27.3 | 7.0 | 32.8 | 1.1 | 0.83 | 15.4% | 21 | 27 | 11 |
| Myles Turner | $7,000 | $7,300 | $12,500 | 30.3 | 2.1 | 28.3 | 1.3 | 1.07 | 17.9% | 23 | 29 | 13 |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,700 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 21.3 | 1.4 | 23.3 | -0.5 | 0.91 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,500 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 26.2 | -5.2 | 25.2 | -2.4 | 1.04 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (DK)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (FD), Cory Joseph (FD), Myles Turner (GPP)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have nothing to play for at this point of the season, but at least they are starting to give their young players more minutes. Tonight’s matchup against the Pacers is mediocre, as Indiana is ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hawks have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the fourth lowest of the slate, but one point higher than their season average.
The key injury to monitor here is the availability of Malcolm Delaney. If he is unable to suit up, that would open up more minutes for Tyler Dorsey and Isaiah Taylor off the bench. I would like to play Dennis Schroder here, but with the Hawks in full tank mode, they have no reason to play him big minutes. In the last two games, he has only played 26 and 27 minutes. Kent Bazemore has a decent matchup and he may be asked to play a few extra minutes, as he’ll be tasked with defending Victor Oladipo. I have more interest in Bazemore than I do in Taurean Prince, who is price up across the industry.
The Hawks’ frontcourt is more appealing now than it has been for most of the season. With Ersan Ilyasova in Philadelphia, there are enough minutes to go around. The best way to attack Indiana is down low and that’s exactly what I plan to do here. John Collins is no longer a great value play, but he is seeing 30+ minutes regularly. On the season, he has averaged 1.08 fantasy points per minute, so there is certainly plenty of upside in tournaments. Mike Muscala is close to minimum salary and has played at least 23 minutes in three straight games. He offers salary cap relief in any format, although I wouldn’t consider him a core play.
Notable Injuries
DeAndre’ Bembry (Out)
Malcolm Delaney (Questionable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (14 of 18)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,000 | $6,600 | $11,500 | 33.4 | -4.8 | 31.1 | -1.3 | 1.07 | 29.3% | 5 | 9 | 23 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 27.7 | -2.8 | 27.8 | -0.1 | 1.00 | 20.2% | 23 | 8 | 1 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,200 | $5,700 | $10,400 | 23.8 | -1.3 | 29.9 | -2.0 | 0.80 | 17.5% | 8 | 12 | 28 |
| John Collins | $6,500 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 24.2 | 0.2 | 22.5 | 2.8 | 1.08 | 15.7% | 14 | 10 | 12 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,500 | $5,100 | $9,100 | 22.8 | 1.2 | 23.3 | 0.9 | 0.98 | 14.9% | 27 | 27 | 19 |
| Tyler Dorsey | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 0.72 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Isaiah Taylor | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 14.7 | 4.0 | 0.78 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Muscala | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 14.7 | 2.7 | 17.1 | 4.7 | 0.86 | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Collins (GPP)
Secondary Plays – John Collins (Cash), Kent Bazemore (GPP), Mike Muscala, Tyler Dorsey & Isaiah Taylor (if Delaney is out)
Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208.0 | | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Treveon Graham | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 10 | DvP | 13 | 10 | 25 | 14 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 7 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after beating the Bulls at home. They have now won five games in a row, as they make a push toward the playoffs in the last two months of the regular season. They draw an awful matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. The Hornets have the lowest implied total (100.3 points) and the worst projected point differential (-6.3) of any team on the schedule.
Even though this is a bad game environment as a whole, there are two injuries that could potentially open up some plays from Charlotte. The first is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. While he hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes, his absence would likely give Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb a healthy boost in playing time. Lamb would become an elite tournament play and a borderline cash game target if he drew the start. The other injury to monitor is Cody Zeller. He’s been a big reason why Dwight Howard minutes have taken a hit recently. If he is unable to suit up, we can safely project Howard to play minutes in the low-30s, which is a big step up from the 27 that he has averaged over his last five games. Howard is affordable and we’ve seen a few centers play well against the Celtics this season. If you are in desperate need of value at power forward, Marvin Williams is only $3,900 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Questionable)
Cody Zeller (Questionable)
Dwight Howard (Probable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (18 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -6.3 (18 of 18)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,200 | $7,800 | $14,300 | 38.0 | 2.6 | 34.9 | -0.7 | 1.09 | 27.3% | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| Nicolas Batum | $7,000 | $6,400 | $12,100 | 27.0 | 9.2 | 31.5 | -1.0 | 0.86 | 18.6% | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Treveon Graham | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 17.3 | -0.3 | 0.59 | 11.2% | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| Marvin Williams | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 19.3 | 0.2 | 26.0 | 0.7 | 0.74 | 12.9% | 12 | 3 | 3 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,100 | $7,700 | $13,600 | 37.1 | 1.1 | 30.7 | -3.1 | 1.21 | 19.3% | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 24.6 | 0.0 | 24.8 | -0.9 | 0.99 | 21.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 19.1 | 2.1 | 23.2 | -2.6 | 0.83 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dwight Howard (if Zeller is out), Jeremy Lamb (GPP – if MKG is out)
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (if Zeller is active), Marvin Williams
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have won three games in a row and will be doing their best to catch the Raptors for the best record in the Eastern Conference. Tonight’s matchup against the Hornets looks mediocre on paper, but I always give offenses a boost that are facing this team at home. Charlotte has really struggled on the road this season and their defense has not been an exception. The Celtics have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the ninth highest on the board and four points above their season average.
The two issues that I have with Boston are that they play at a slow pace (22nd in the league) and that they have such a deep rotation. This leads to fewer possessions and fantasy production that tends to be spread out between a bunch of players. While I don’t have a ton of interest in Boston, Kyrie Irving should see a full complement of minutes in a decent matchup against Kemba Walker. Irving has averaged 40 fantasy points over his last five games and has one of the highest true usage rates (29.5%) of any point guard in basketball. Marcus Morris, Al Horford, and Marcus Smart all grade out as decent secondary options at their respective positions, but I’m not looking to force any of them into my lineups.
Notable Injuries
Daniel Theis (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (9 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (3 of 18)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,600 | $8,200 | $13,900 | 38.7 | 1.9 | 32.6 | -2.0 | 1.19 | 29.5% | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,200 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 25.5 | -2.9 | 31.3 | -1.9 | 0.81 | 18.1% | 9 | 10 | 15 |
| Jayson Tatum | $4,900 | $5,400 | $9,400 | 25.6 | -5.8 | 30.7 | -4.3 | 0.83 | 16.2% | 24 | 25 | 15 |
| Al Horford | $6,500 | $6,300 | $13,100 | 32.8 | -8.4 | 32.0 | -3.5 | 1.02 | 17.4% | 24 | 14 | 14 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 15.2 | -2.2 | 17.8 | -6.2 | 0.85 | 14.3% | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,600 | $5,100 | $9,600 | 22.1 | 1.7 | 25.1 | 4.8 | 0.88 | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Smart | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 24.1 | 0.3 | 30.0 | -4.7 | 0.80 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $4,000 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 22.2 | 5.3 | 24.1 | 1.3 | 0.92 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash), Marcus Morris (FD), Al Horford
Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 214.5 | | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.0 | Vegas Spread | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.8 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Dragan Bender | Alex Len | Projected Starters | Andrew Harrison | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Jarell Martin | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 19 | 10 | 12 | 1 | DvP | 27 | 30 | 20 | 30 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 17 | 28 | 23 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 25 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 22 | |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns have not been a great team in terms of actual basketball, but they have been a favorite of DFS players for most of the season. They play at an incredibly fast pace and have the lethal combination of being the worst defense in basketball. Their matchup against the Grizzlies looks tough on paper, but Memphis is so short-handed that I could see this game turning into an uptempo, back-and-forth type of contest. The Suns’ implied total of 106.8 points is nearly three points above their season average.
Many will automatically see the matchup against the Grizzlies and shy away from the Suns, but that could be a costly mistake. They have an enticing team total, even though they are playing on the road. Elfrid Payton has scored at least 31 fantasy points in seven straight games. He’s not as cheap as he was two weeks ago, but I like his chances to extend that streak tonight against Andrew Harrison, who is a below-average defender. Devin Booker saw a notable price jump after hanging 63 fantasy points on the Pelicans, but I’m more than willing to ride his hot streak in tournaments. For cash games, there are safer options at shooting guard.
T.J. Warren is currently listed as questionable with a tailbone injury (ouch). If he is unable to suit up, Josh Jackson would draw the start at small forward and immediately push for 30+ minutes in a game that has sneaky fantasy appeal. If Warren is active, he makes an intriguing tournament play, although I would hesitate to use him in cash games. Dragan Bender has been a boom or bust fantasy option for nearly a month now, but the Grizzlies have struggled to contain power forwards this season. Alex Len was a huge disappointment on Monday night, but I’m hopping right back on him tonight. He’s the Suns only chance of slowing Marc Gasol down and Len’s ownership is going to plummet thanks to that one bad outing.
Notable Injuries
Tyson Chandler (Out)
T.J. Warren (Questionable)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (12 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (7 of 18)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.5 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,300 | $7,100 | $13,200 | 30.8 | 6.7 | 29.2 | 4.3 | 1.06 | 21.7% | 20 | 17 | 21 |
| Devin Booker | $8,700 | $8,600 | $14,600 | 37.4 | 7.0 | 34.4 | 4.0 | 1.09 | 28.5% | 11 | 19 | 17 |
| T.J. Warren | $7,100 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 31.2 | -0.5 | 32.6 | 1.2 | 0.96 | 22.7% | 2 | 10 | 28 |
| Dragan Bender | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 14.4 | 1.1 | 23.4 | 3.6 | 0.61 | 11.2% | 22 | 12 | 23 |
| Alex Len | $4,900 | $5,700 | $10,300 | 22.3 | 6.4 | 20.7 | 5.7 | 1.08 | 14.4% | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Marquese Chriss | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 18.3 | -4.2 | 20.7 | -3.6 | 0.89 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Josh Jackson | $5,100 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 20.3 | 6.5 | 23.5 | 4.3 | 0.86 | 21.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Devin Booker (GPP), Alex Len (FD), Dragan Bender (GPP), Josh Jackson (if Warren is out)
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Devin Booker (Cash), Alex Len (DK), Dragan Bender (Cash), T.J. Warren (GPP – if active)
Memphis Grizzlies
I rarely get excited about a Grizzlies’ game, but I am pumped for their matchup tonight against the Suns. As the kids would say (I’m over 30, so I’m officially an old man), it’s going to be lit. The Grizzlies are missing four pieces of their rotation and they have a dream matchup against the Suns at home. On the season, Phoenix is ranked dead last in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is nine points higher than their season average. Not only is a Grizzlies stack playable, it’s recommended.
Andrew Harrison price point is going to keep his ownership down, despite a matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 28th in efficiency against point guards. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble (this has surprisingly been an issue for him), he should log 30+ minutes with a high usage rate. I’m going to be targeting Harrison in all formats tonight, even at this price point. Dillon Brooks is going to be busy tonight, as the Grizzlies are close to signing players off the street. Brooks isn’t great on a per-minute basis, but 30+ minutes against the Suns is never something we should overlook at his price point.
The Grizzlies are so short-handed on the wing that they are starting two power forwards and a center. We typically see teams get smaller with their lineups, not the other way around. JaMychal Green is going to be one of the most popular power forward targets tonight and rightly so. The mistake that people will make is overlooking Jarell Martin, who should see a similar complement of minutes in the same matchup. I wouldn’t hesitate to play both Martin and Green in the same lineup. Marc Gasol is overpriced on DraftKings (which makes him an interesting tournament play) and underpriced on FanDuel ($7,200). This might be the first time in history that I’ve said this in a nine-game slate, but playing four Grizzlies is a viable strategy.
Notable Injuries
Wayne Selden (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Out)
Tyreke Evans (Out)
Deyonta Davis (Out)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 98.8 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (9 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 9.0 (2 of 18)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.0 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.5 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Harrison | $6,000 | $5,700 | $9,900 | 18.2 | 5.5 | 23.0 | 3.8 | 0.79 | 18.9% | 28 | 27 | 25 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 16.5 | 2.0 | 28.2 | 1.8 | 0.59 | 14.0% | 27 | 30 | 28 |
| JaMychal Green | $5,300 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 22.8 | 5.1 | 26.8 | 1.6 | 0.85 | 15.8% | 21 | 20 | 29 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,100 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 15.1 | 6.2 | 20.6 | 8.5 | 0.73 | 13.8% | 30 | 30 | 28 |
| Marc Gasol | $7,200 | $8,400 | $14,500 | 37.6 | -3.8 | 33.9 | -2.3 | 1.11 | 23.4% | 14 | 22 | 22 |
| Mario Chalmers | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 17.7 | -6.7 | 22.3 | -1.0 | 0.79 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
