NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -9.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Cavaliers Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Thompson
- Charlotte Hornets Proj. Starters – Lin-Hairston-Kidd-Gilchrist-Williams-Zeller
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 205.5 | | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.5 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.90 | Team Pace | 97.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Proj. Starter | Jeremy Lin | P.J. Hairston | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 23 | 27 | 11 | Opp. Season | 17 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 19 | 11 | 30 | 8 | 5 | Last 3 Weeks | 20 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 4 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 35-12 — Road: 16-9 — Last 10: 8-2
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.5 (5 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1
The Cavaliers have won eight of their last ten games and are listed as 9.5-point favorites tonight against the Hornets. Charlotte could be playing short-handed tonight, which would only increase the chance of this game turning into a blowout. The Cavaliers are projected to score 107.5 points, but there is certainly the potential for this game to turn into a rout.
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.7 (21 of 30)
The Hornets have been a mediocre team defensively this season, ranking between 13th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers will be at full strength for tonight’s game, but given the high spread, they are better tournament plays than cash game options. There has been some chatter about the Cavaliers playing at a faster pace under new coach Tyronn Lue, but that hasn’t been the case. They are actually averaging a half possession less per game over their last five, they have just been more efficient offensively.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
LeBron James
James isn’t my favorite superstar to pay up for tonight, but I’m certainly not going to talk you out of him. He has been in relatively good form, averaging 45.2 fantasy points over his last five games. His price is considerably better on DraftKings than it is on FanDuel, so if you play on both sites, you may want to get your exposure to him on DK.
FD — $10,200 — SF
DK — $9,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 24.3
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 44.1 | Last Five Games: 45.2
Kevin Love
Love has been inconsistent this season, but has actually played very well over his last five games. During that stretch, he is averaging 37.9 fantasy points in 34.8 minutes. He draws a favorable matchup against the Hornets, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
FD — $7,700 — PF
DK — $7,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 20.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 37.9
Tristan Thompson
Thompson is a better play on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. Not only are we required to roster two power forwards on FD, but he is considerably cheaper than he is on DK. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked 18th in rebounding differential this season.
FD — $4,800 — PF
DK — $5,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.3 | Last Five Games: 9.6
Min/Game — Season: 27.9 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 24.7
Charlotte Hornets
Record: 23-25 — Home: 16-8 — Last 10: 5-5
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.0 (18 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6
The Hornets have won five of their last ten games, but draw one of the toughest fantasy matchups in all of daily fantasy basketball. The Cavaliers own a top five defense and the Hornets are only projected to score 98 points. Not only is that the fifth lowest team total on the board, but it is also 3.6 points lower than their average points per game.
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 4.1 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 186.9 (3 of 30)
The Cavaliers have been terrific on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking eighth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Kemba Walker has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest, while Nicolas Batum, Cody Zeller, and Jeremy Lamb are all questionable.
- Injury Watch:
Kemba Walker (Out)
Nicolas Batum (Questionable)
Cody Zeller (Probable)
Jeremy Lin (Probable)
Jeremy Lamb (Probable)
Elite Plays
Jeremy Lin
With Kemba Walker out and Nicolas Batum questionable, Lin should see a heavy workload tonight against the Cavaliers. While Cleveland has been efficient on the defensive end of the floor, the one position that they have struggled to defend is point guard. Given his price and increased role in the offense tonight, he can be targeted in all league formats.
FD — $5,000 — SG
DK — $5,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 20.6
Min/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 26.9
Secondary Plays
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Everyone expected the Hornets to ease MKG back into action, but he has averaged 30.8 minutes in his first two starts back from injury. While we can’t expect him to continue to average a fantasy point per minute, he is still underpriced on DraftKings. Given the lack of value on DK tonight, MKG could be considered a borderline elite play, especially if Nicolas Batum is ruled out.
FD — $5,800 — SF
DK — $4,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 14.6
Min/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 29.9
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -8.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Hawks Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
- Philadelphia 76ers Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Covington-Noel-Okafor
| Atlanta Hawks | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 206.5 | | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.5 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.10 | Team Pace | 99.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj. Starter | Ishmael Smith | Nik Stauskas | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 18 | 28 | 28 | 29 | Opp. Season | 8 | 23 | 14 | 12 | 26 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 24 | 20 | 11 | 12 | 28 | Last 3 Weeks | 3 | 24 | 13 | 21 | 21 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 28-22 — Road: 12-14 — Last 10: 5-5
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.8 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.5 (5 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7
The Hawks come into tonight’s game in relatively bad form, losing five of their last ten games. They are now 28-22 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers in Philadelphia. The Hawks are projected to score 107.5 points, which is the fifth highest team total on the board.
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 210.1 (27 of 30)
The Sixers have been more competitive since acquiring Ish Smith, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This is obviously a great matchup for the Hawks, but we could see Mike Budenholzer limit his starters’ minutes if the game gets out of hand early.
- Injury Watch:
Tiago Splitter (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap
Millsap has been a favorite target of mine this season, but he is far from a must play tonight. The Hawks have limited their starters’ minutes in their meetings against the Sixers this season and Millsap has been dealing with an ankle injury. The price is affordable, but I see him more as a tournament play tonight.
FD — $8,000 — PF
DK — $8,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 18.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 37.2 | Last Five Games: 28.1
Al Horford
Horford has flown under the radar for most of the season, but there always seem to be better options at center. That’s the case again tonight, but I do like using him in tournaments. The Sixers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA and they have allowed more blocked shots than any team this season.
FD — $7,100 — C
DK — $6,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.2 | Last Five Games: 15.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 27.0
Jeff Teague
Teague is coming off of his best game in months, scoring 50 fantasy points. I wouldn’t get too carried away with him tonight though, as he only played 28 minutes in that contest. If you use a 5x salary value system, Teague has only reached value two times in his last ten games.
FD — $6,200 — PG
DK — $5,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 21.4
Min/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 28.5
FP/Game — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 32.0
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 7-41 — Home: 4-18 — Last 10: 3-7
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 94.9 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.0 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1
The Sixers have won seven of their last ten games, which can actually be considered good form. They are large underdogs tonight against the Hawks, but they are playing at home which lowers the chance of this game turning into a blowout. The Sixers are projected to score 99 points, which is 4.1 points higher than their average points per game.
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.3 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.2 (17 of 30)
The Hawks have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA this season, but are ranked seventh in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel are both in decent spots, but they both play better when the other is off of the floor. It’s hard to project either player for more than 30 minutes tonight.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Ishmael Smith
If I had to chose between the two point guards in this game, I’d give the edge to Smith. He has more minute upside than Jeff Teague. Smith’s production has been down a little recently, but at least that has led to a drop in price. The one concern here is his matchup – the Hawks are ranked eighth against point guards this season.
FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $7,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 29.7
Robert Covington
Covington has been playing elite minutes recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 28.5 fantasy points in 33.5 minutes per contest. He draws a decent matchup against the Hawks and is by far my favorite fantasy option from the Sixers tonight. Covington could be considered a borderline elite play on FanDuel.
FD — $5,100 — SF
DK — $6,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 14.7
Min/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 28.5
Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -7, 201 Over/Under
- Indiana Pacers Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Turner-Hill
- Brooklyn Nets Proj. Starters – Sloan-Ellington-Johnson-Young-Lopez
| Indiana Pacers | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 201.0 | | Vegas Total | 201.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.0 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.50 | Team Pace | 96.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Myles Turner | Jordan Hill | Proj. Starter | Donald Sloan | Wayne Ellington | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 25 | Opp. Season | 6 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 21 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 29 | 14 | 21 | 30 | 6 | Last 3 Weeks | 23 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 22 | |
Indiana Pacers
Record: 25-23 — Road: 10-15 — Last 10: 3-7
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.0 (11 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3
The Pacers have lost seven of their last ten games, but draw an easier matchup tonight against the Nets. The Pacers are 7-point favorites with their team total set at 104 points. The fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn helps, as it is expected to remain within striking distance throughout.
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.4 (23 of 30)
The Nets have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Ian Mahinmi and Rodney Stuckey have both been ruled out of tonight’s contest. Myles Turner and Jordan Hill are expected to start in the Pacers’ frontcourt.
- Injury Watch:
Ian Mahinmi (Out)
Rodney Stuckey (Out)
Elite Plays
Myles Turner
Turner has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 29.9 fantasy points in 30.6 minutes per contest. With Ian Mahinmi ruled out again, Turner should see 35+ minutes tonight against the Nets. Even though his price has come up, he is still one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. He is a multi-dimensional player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet.
FD — $5,500 — PF
DK — $6,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 29.9
Jordan Hill
Hill has made the most of his last two starts, scoring 43 and 32 fantasy points. With Ian Mahinmi out, he should be a lock to play 30+ minutes tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 20th against power forwards and 25th against centers. Given the matchup and opportunity, I’m on the Hill train again tonight. I don’t mind playing Hill and Myles Turner together.
FD — $4,700 — C
DK — $5,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 14.7
Min/Game — Season: 22.1 | Last Five Games: 28.3
FP/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Secondary Plays
Paul George
George’s price has come down a bit across the industry, but I’m always hesitant to target players that are dealing with “general wear and tear.” He says that he is playing on tired legs and if you look at his game logs, they aren’t all that impressive. He’s worth a look in tournaments, but I will be taking another route in cash games.
FD — $8,200 — SF
DK — $8,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 38.5 | Last Five Games: 34.0
George Hill
Hill is coming off of one of his best games of the season, scoring 39 fantasy points against the Cavaliers the other night. He still has a low usage rate for a point guard, but the minute upside is there. Over his last five games, Hill is averaging 38.6 minutes per contest.
FD — $5,900 — PG
DK — $5,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 13.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 38.6
FP/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 25.4
Brooklyn Nets
Record: 12-37 — Home: 8-19 — Last 10: 1-9
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 95.5 (29 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.0 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5
The Nets have lost nine of their last ten games and have fallen to 12-37 on the season. The Nets are sizable underdogs tonight against the Pacers at home. Brooklyn in projected to score 97 points, which is the fourth lowest team total on the board.
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.4 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.6 (10 of 30)
The Pacers have been stout defensively this season, ranking tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Nets are projected to score slightly more than their season average, but there is really only one player on my radar from Brooklyn tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez
Lopez is too expensive on FanDuel (would much rather target Pau Gasol), but he is a little underpriced on DraftKings. He has been in tremendous form recently, averaging 46.2 fantasy points over his last five games. With so many great options at center, Lopez makes a strong tournament play on DK.
FD — $8,900 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.9 | Last Five Games: 25.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 46.2
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -3.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Pistons Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris-Ilyasova-Drummond
- Boston Celtics Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Sullinger
| Detroit Pistons | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 207.5 | | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.80 | Team Pace | 101.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Ersan Ilyasova | Andre Drummond | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 9 | 20 | 26 | 18 | Opp. Season | 12 | 10 | 2 | 19 | 13 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 2 | 15 | 12 | 28 | 20 | Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 27 | |
Detroit Pistons
Record: 26-23 — Road: 11-15 — Last 10: 5-5
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.1 (12 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.0 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.1
The Pistons are 5-5 in their last ten games and are three above .500 on the season. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Celtics in Boston. The Pistons are projected to score 102 points, which is nearly identical to their average points per game.
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.7 (11 of 30)
The Celtics are ranked second in defensive efficiency this season, but their quick pace of play allows us to target players against them. The Celtics have been very tough on opposing backcourts, but have struggled to defend forwards and centers. With Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris being so inconsistent, there is only one target on my radar here.
- Injury Watch:
Jodie Meeks (Out)
Elite Plays
Andre Drummond
Drummond can’t hit a free throw, especially when he is playing on the road. You wouldn’t think that a bad free throw shooter would have glaring home/away splits, but that has been the case with Drummond. Last season, he shot 37% from the line and this season he is shooting a paltry 32.5%. Brad Stevens may want to employ the hack-a-Drummond approach. Anyway, Drummond is a strong tournament play tonight against the Celtics. In their three meetings this season, he has averaged 17 points and 13 rebounds per contest. For cash games, I prefer Pau Gasol.
FD — $8,700 — C
DK — $8,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Min/Game — Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 32.9
FP/Game — Season: 40.9 | Last Five Games: 36.1
Secondary Plays
NONE
Boston Celtics
Record: 28-22 — Home: 14-10 — Last 10: 7-3
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.6 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5 (9 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9
The Celtics have won seven of their last ten games and are now six games above .500 on the season. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Pistons. The Celtics are 3.5-point favorites with their team total set at 105.5 points.
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 4.1 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.3 (7 of 30)
The Pistons have an above average defense, ranking 12th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned with the matchup though, as the Celtics are projected to score slightly more points than their average points per game. I am going to continue to avoid the Celtics’ frontcourt, as there are too many bodies splitting minutes.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Isaiah Thomas
Thomas has played well in back-to-back games and his price is still down across the industry. The concern here is that there are only so many minutes to go around now that the Celtics are healthy. We can only project Thomas to play 30-32 minutes, which makes him seem a bit expensive for his matchup against the Pistons.
FD — $7,800 — PG
DK — $7,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 24.3
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 31.4
Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -10.5, 224.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Washington Wizards Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Porter-Dudley-Gortat
| Golden State Warriors | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 224.5 | | Vegas Total | 224.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 117.5 | Team Proj. | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.70 | Team Pace | 99.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj. Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Otto Porter | Jared Dudley | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 26 | 30 | 8 | 11 | Opp. Season | 18 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 17 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 26 | 16 | 25 | 11 | 9 | Last 3 Weeks | 9 | 18 | 22 | 14 | 13 | |
Golden State Warriors
Record: 44-4 — Road: 22-4 — Last 10: 8-2
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 115.0 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 117.5 (1 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5
The Warriors have only won eight of their last ten games, so I suppose that means they are in bad form? Kidding aside, they are on pace to win 70 games this season. Tonight they head to Washington to take on the Wizards. The Warriors are projected to score 117.5 points, which is easily the highest team total on the board.
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.9 (19 of 30)
The Wizards have struggled defensively this season, ranking 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. They are going to have a difficult time stopping the NBA’s best offensive team in the Warriors. We can give the Warriors’ offense a small boost as a whole, but the game does feature a double-digit spread.
- Injury Watch:
Festus Ezeli (Out)
James Michael McAdoo (Out)
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry
Curry is my favorite point guard to pay up for tonight. He is coming off of a rare subpar outing against the Knicks, scoring only 26 fantasy points. He should bounce back nicely tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 26th against point guards over the last three weeks of play. The Warriors have the highest team total on the board and with this game being played on the road, Curry could see a full complement of minutes.
FD — $10,700 — PG
DK — $10,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 24.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 46.8 | Last Five Games: 44.5
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green
Green has played well over his last five games, but he is priced a little too high. Given his recent level of production, I’d rather target him at a price in the low $8,000 range. He offers nice upside in a fast-paced game against the Wizards, but is a better tournament target than he is for cash games.
FD — $9,000 — PF
DK — $9,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.7 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 39.3 | Last Five Games: 36.3
Klay Thompson
Thompson has played well over his last five games, averaging 33.6 fantasy points in 31.4 minutes. He draws one of the best individual matchups on the board, as the Wizards have been one of the worst teams at defending wing players this season.
FD — $7,100 — SG
DK — $7,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 24.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 33.6
Harrison Barnes
If you need a cheap small forward tonight, you could do a lot worse than Barnes. He should see around 30 minutes tonight against a Wizards’ defense that has struggled to defend small forwards this season.
FD — $4,300 — SF
DK — $4,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.0 | Last Five Games: 12.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 17.7
Washington Wizards
Record: 21-25 — Home: 10-15 — Last 10: 4-6
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.2 (11 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.0 (8 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8
The Wizards have lost six of their last ten games and are listed as 10.5-point underdogs tonight against the Warriors. While I don’t expect them to win tonight, they are in a pretty decent fantasy matchup. The Wizards are projected to score 107 points, which is the eighth highest team total on the board and 4.8 points higher than their average points per game.
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.5 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.1 (13 of 30)
The Warriors are a lot like the Celtics in that they are efficient defensively, but are an exploitable matchup thanks to their pace. On the season, they are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 13th in fantasy points allowed per game. I will continue to avoid Bradley Beal, as he has yet to play more than 30 minutes since returning from his injury. I will also be avoiding the Wizards’ frontcourt, as the Warriors love to play small.
- Injury Watch:
Kris Humphries (Out)
Alan Anderson (Out)
Elite Plays
John Wall
Much like Andre Drummond, Wall is an elite tournament play, but more of a secondary cash game option. If you are paying up for a point guard in cash, you might as well spend a bit more and use Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook. However, Wall draws a nice matchup against the Warriors and with Bradley Beal still limited, Wall is still the number one option offensively. If the Wizards are going to keep this game close, they are going to need a big game from their point guard.
FD — $9,700 — PG
DK — $9,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 23.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 40.8 | Last Five Games: 39.9
Secondary Plays
NONE
