NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-03-29 01:20:20

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		221.0					Vegas Total		221.0
			Vegas Spread		12.0					Vegas Spread		-12.0
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		116.5
			Pace Projection +/-		2.2					Pace Projection +/-		-0.4
Projected Starters	Trey Burke	Tim Hardaway	Lance Thomas	Michael Beasley	Enes Kanter		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	18	20	12	12		DvP	25	17	24	14	15
DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	25	2		DRPM Rat.	28	20	11	25	28

New York Knicks

The Knicks haven’t done the best job of tanking over the last month or two. They have 27 wins on the season, which is only the ninth-worst mark in the NBA. Tonight’s matchup against the Sixers is far from ideal, as Philadelphia is ranked fourth in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential. New York has an implied total of 104.5 points, which is the seventh lowest of the slate and very close to their season average.

Emmanuel Mudiay is expected to play tonight, but he will come off the bench behind Trey Burke, who has channeled his inner Linsanity. In his last two starts, Burke has scored 33 and 62 fantasy points. Unfortunately, the sites have been quick to adjust his salary, so he’s far from a core play in a matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked second in efficiency against point guards. With Shabazz Napier and Isaiah Taylor looking like must plays, Burke is best suited as a tournament target.

Tim Hardaway and Michael Beasley have seen consistent minutes over the last five games. Of the two, I prefer Beasley, as he draws the better matchup of the two. Hardaway will have his hands full with Robert Covington, who is still one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball. Enes Kanter provides upside at center, especially with Kyle O’Quinn out. In the last two games without O’Quinn in the lineup, Kanter has averaged 30 minutes and 31 fantasy points.

Notable Injuries

Courtney Lee (Questionable)
Kyle O’Quinn (Out)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.5 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (11 of 16)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.7 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Michael Beasley (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Beasley (Cash), Trey Burke (GPP) Tim Hardaway (GPP), Enes Kanter (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have won eight of their last ten games and have vaulted up the Eastern Conference standings. With a win, they could potentially pass the Cavaliers for the third best record in the East. With plenty to play for, they should be able to take care of business in a home matchup against the Knicks. The Sixers have an implied total of 116.5 points, which is the highest of the slate and eight points above than their season average.

Ben Simmons had an awful first half against the Nuggets and still managed to finish the game with 41 fantasy points. He has now topped that mark in six of his last seven games. I’m concerned enough about a blowout that I won’t be using Simmons in cash games, but he is firmly in the mix for tournaments. J.J. Redick and Marco Belinelli are decent punts, but neither stand out as elite plays at shooting guard. The best value plays tonight come from Portland and Atlanta.

Robert Covington draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 28th in efficiency against small forwards. He’s not a core play tonight, but you can do worse for the last piece in your lineups. Joel Embiid should be able to dominate both ends of the floor and he remains underpriced on DraftKings ($9,400). Like Simmons, I feel better about Embiid in tournaments than I do cash games given the potential blowout and the other options available at his position.

Notable Injuries

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.7 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.5 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 7.8 (1 of 16)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (GPP), Joel Embiid (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (Cash), Joel Embiid (Cash), Robert Covington, Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova (FD)

Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		216.5					Vegas Total		216.5
			Vegas Spread		-1.5					Vegas Spread		1.5
			Implied Team Total		109.0					Implied Team Total		107.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.0					Pace Projection +/-		1.5
Projected Starters	D’Angelo Russell	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Jarrett Allen		Projected Starters	D.J. Augustin	Wes Iwundu	Mario Hezonja	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	30	26	18	22	22		DvP	29	11	14	27	30
DRPM Rat.	22	16	29	21	9		DRPM Rat.	29	21	4	14	26

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets do not own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft, which helps explain why they have been trying to win basketball games over the last month of play. The fact that they are favorites on the road goes to show how competitive this team has been recently. They come into tonight’s game with an implied total of 109 points in an elite matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game.

The biggest issue with the Nets is their depth. They currently have eight players that are averaging 24+ minutes a game (at least over the last couple of weeks). While this isn’t exactly ideal, their matchup is too good to ignore. D’Angelo Russell should log around 30 minutes against a Magic defense that is ranked dead last in efficiency against point guards. Russell grades out as an elite play on DraftKings ($6,300), but more of a secondary option on FanDuel ($7,200).

Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll seem to fly under the radar every night, despite the fact that both are in good form over the last five games. Both are on my radar for tournaments. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has averaged 33 minutes and 34 fantasy points over his last five games. While his price has come up across the industry, he gets to face one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball.

Notable Injuries

None

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.4 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (8 of 16)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.1 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell (DK), Allen Crabbe (GPP), DeMarre Carroll (GPP), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK)

Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell (FD), Allen Crabbe (Cash), DeMarre Carroll (Cash), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (FD)

Orlando Magic

The Magic are counting down the days until the end of the regular season. They currently have 22 wins on the season, which is the fourth worst mark in the NBA. While their future doesn’t look too bright, they do have a favorable matchup in front of them tonight. The Nets are currently ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Magic have an implied total of 107.5 points, which is three points higher than their season average.

D.J. Augustin has made the most of his chance to start at point guard. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 33 minutes and 29 fantasy points. The problem is that at his current price point, he basically needs 30+ fantasy points to reach value. Augustin is viable, but not an elite play in this eight-game slate. Mario Hezonja finally broke out of his slump against the Suns, scoring 45 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action. He’s viable in tournaments tonight, but it’s hard not to eat the chalk and play Evan Turner instead.

Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic should both dominate in this matchup. The Nets are ranked in the bottom five in both efficiency and DvP against both power forwards and centers. Brooklyn also has the seventh worst rebounding differential. Given the differences in pricing, Gordon is the better buy on FanDuel ($8,000) and Vucevic is the better buy on DraftKings ($7,800). The nice part about the Magic is that they are so short-handed that they don’t really have an option to limit their starter’s minutes.

Notable Injuries

Jonathon Simmons (Out)
Evan Fournier (Out)
Terrence Ross (Out)
Jonathan Isaac (Out)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2 (6 of 16)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.6 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (7 of 30)

Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon (FD), Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon (DK), Nikola Vucevic (FD), D.J. Augustin, Mario Hezonja (GPP)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		226.5					Vegas Total		226.5
			Vegas Spread		0.0					Vegas Spread		0.0
			Implied Team Total		113.3					Implied Team Total		113.3
			Pace Projection +/-		1.0					Pace Projection +/-		0.6
Projected Starters	Jose Calderon	George Hill	LeBron James	Jeff Green	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	17	16	23	16	16		DvP	23	23	29	19	20
DRPM Rat.	20	13	12	13	9		DRPM Rat.	13	26	25	16	19

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers forgot to show up last night against the Heat. Dwyane Wade had the last laugh in that one. Cleveland will try to bounce back tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Cleveland needs a win to keep pace with the Sixers for the three-seed in the East. They have an implied total of 115.5 points, which is four points higher than their season average.

Kevin Love left last night’s game early and didn’t return. There is a chance he will enter the concussion protocol and if that’s the case, we might not see him again for a few days. He is currently listed as questionable, but I expect that he’s really closer to doubtful. Love’s absence would give a significant boost to the rest of the lineup. After a rare subpar outing from LeBron James, he should bounce back in a big way against the Hornets. James is the top overall play of the slate and viable in cash games and tournaments. With all of the value available tonight, it’s easy to fit LeBron on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

The rest of the Cavaliers are only viable if Love ends up sitting out. His absence would make Jeff Green and Larry Nance intriguing plays. Green played 31 minutes last night and is priced under $4,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Nance has averaged well over a fantasy point per minute this season and his price has come down considerably. Tristan Thompson would also see a boost, as the Cavaliers will need his size against Dwight Howard.

Notable Injuries

Cedi Osman (Out)
Kyle Korver (Doubtful)
Kevin Love (Questionable)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.6 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (7 of 16)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Jeff Green (if Love is out)

Secondary Plays – Larry Nance & Tristan Thompson (GPP – if Love is out)

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have won six of their last ten games and are technically still alive in the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. They will eventually fall short, but will continue to play their starters big minutes until they are officially eliminated. They draw an ideal matchup against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets have an implied total of 113.3 points, which is the fourth highest overall and nearly six points above their season average.

Kemba Walker is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board tonight. Shabazz Napier and Isaiah Taylor are going to soak up all of the ownership at point guard, which is going to leave solid plays like Walker at 10% ownership in GPPs. The Cavaliers struggle against point guards and Walker has been in great form recently, averaging 46 fantasy points over his last five games. Nicolas Batum feels overpriced across the industry, especially given the fact that he only played 24 minutes in his first game back from injury.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is currently listed as questionable. While Jeremy Lamb would see a small boost in his absence, I will be avoiding both in this slate. Evan Turner is cheaper and provides a similar floor and ceiling projection. Dwight Howard should continue to play minutes in the low-30s, as Cody Zeller has been ruled out of tonight’s game. The Cavaliers play a lot of small lineups, which bodes well for Howard’s rebounding upside. Over his last five games, Howard has averaged 43 fantasy points per contest.

Notable Injuries

Cody Zeller (Out)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Questionable)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.8 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.5 (3 of 16)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Dwight Howard (Cash)

Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers							Memphis Grizzlies
			Vegas Total		202.5					Vegas Total		202.5
			Vegas Spread		-5.5					Vegas Spread		5.5
			Implied Team Total		104.0					Implied Team Total		98.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.5					Pace Projection +/-		-0.7
Projected Starters	Shabazz Napier	C.J. McCollum	Evan Turner	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic		Projected Starters	Andrew Harrison	Dillon Brooks	Jarell Martin	JaMychal Green	Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	20	19	16	13	1		DvP	2	7	15	15	5
DRPM Rat.	21	18	24	29	10		DRPM Rat.	8	24	19	4	1

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have won eight of their last ten games and look poised to take the three-seed in the Western Conference. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight and will be without two of their starters. Damian Lillard left to be there for the birth of his child and Maurice Harkless will undergo surgery on his knee. A matchup against the Grizzlies doesn’t look great on paper, but Memphis has really struggled defensively ever since they started their tank job. The Blazers have an implied total of 104 points even though they are missing their top scorer.

Here is a quick recap of what happens when Lillard and Harkless are off the floor this season:

C.J. McCollum: 1.08 FP/min with a 34% usage rate
Jusuf Nurkic: 1.27 FP/min with a 29% usage rate
Shabazz Napier: 0.84 FP/min with a 21% usage rate
Evan Turner: 0.65 FP/min with an 18% usage rate

This is a great opportunity to stack the Blazers in both cash games and tournaments. At their respective price points, I see Napier and Turner as must plays in all formats. McCollum and Nurkic aren’t quite must plays, but they are elite options at their respective positions. Al-Farouq Aminu has been in great form recently, but he is priced at a premium and actually has less fantasy production when Lillard is off the floor. Stack Portland and thank me later.

Notable Injuries

Damian Lillard (Out)
Maurice Harkless (Out)

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.1 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 (14 of 16)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – Shabazz Napier, C.J. McCollum, Evan Turner, Jusuf Nurkic

Secondary Plays – Al-Farouq Aminu (GPP)

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have lost eight of their last ten games and currently own the second worst record in basketball. They have no incentive to win, but they do catch the Blazers at an opportune time. Portland is playing without two starters and are playing in their second road game in as many nights. Even with all of that, the Grizzlies still have the second lowest implied total (98.5 points) and the fifth worst projected point differential (-0.2) of any team on the slate.

Tyreke Evans has already been ruled out and Andrew Harrison is listed as questionable. Harrison has played well in spot starts recently, but we can find better value at the position with Shabazz Napier and Isaiah Taylor. JaMychal Green has played 35 and 39 minutes in the last two games, scoring 41 and 24 fantasy points. I’m not a huge fan of his matchup, but he’s viable tonight given the weak state of the power forward position as a whole. Marc Gasol is an easy fade against a Blazers’ team that is ranked fourth in efficiency and fifth in DvP against centers this season.

Notable Injuries

Tyreke Evans (Out)
Ivan Rabb (Doubtful)
Andrew Harrison (Questionable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 98.7 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (12 of 16)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – JaMychal Green

Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Minnesota Timberwolves
			Vegas Total		217.5					Vegas Total		217.5
			Vegas Spread		12.0					Vegas Spread		-12.0
			Implied Team Total		102.8					Implied Team Total		114.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.2					Pace Projection +/-		0.9
Projected Starters	Isaiah Taylor	Damion Lee	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Andrew Wiggins	Nemanja Bjelica	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	16	20	2	6	11		DvP	27	25	30	28	29
DRPM Rat.	18	28	9	12	24		DRPM Rat.	9	10	27	19	13

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have nothing to play for at this point of the season. In fact, if they tank well enough and things break their way over the next two weeks, they could end up having the best statistical chance of receiving the number one draft pick. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Wolves, but are playing on the road without their starting point guard. The Hawks have an implied total of 102.8 points, which is the fourth lowest of the slate and slightly below their season average.

Dennis Schroder has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. In his absence the other night, Isaiah Taylor played 31 minutes and scored 33 fantasy points. Taylor is one of the top value plays at any position tonight, as he should play around 30 minutes even if this game turns into a blowout. An interesting pivot in tournaments is to play Tyler Dorsey over Taylor, although I do have Taylor projected to play more minutes and score more fantasy points.

Surprisingly, there are actually a few more viable options from the Hawks tonight. Taurean Prince is a little too expensive for my liking, but there are three bigs from Atlanta that all deserve consideration. John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon, and Mike Muscala should all see minute in the mid to upper-20s. Power forward is one of the weakest positions of the slate, which makes Collins an intriguing play in all formats. Dedmon has the best matchup of the three, but center is actually loaded with options tonight.

Notable Injuries

Dennis Schroder (Out)
Malcolm Delaney (Out)
John Collins (Probable)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (13 of 16)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – Isaiah Taylor, Tyler Dorsey (GPP), John Collins (DK)

Secondary Plays – Tyler Dorsey (Cash), John Collins (FD), Dewayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves need every win they can get from here on out. They are currently the eighth seed in the West, but the Clippers and Nuggets are chomping at their heels. Minnesota should be able to take care of business tonight at home against the Hawks, who are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wolves have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is the third highest on the board and five points above their season average.

While a blowout is certainly possible, it should help keep ownership low in tournaments. The Wolves are a great team to target given the upside in this matchup. Jeff Teague has a revenge game against his former team, although the revenge is two or three times removed at this point (he’s played for a number of teams since then). With point guard being loaded with options, Teague is a deep tournament play tonight. Andrew Wiggins has played well recently, but I hate relying on players that don’t offer much in terms of peripheral statistics.

Nemanja Bjelica has had three bad outings over the last two weeks, so he’s likely burned most of the DFS community at this point. He’s an excellent buy-low candidate in terms of ownership. He could easily go right back to his 36-38 minute role in a great matchup against the Hawks. Jamal Crawford grades out as an elite play on DraftKings, but he doesn’t quite offer the same upside as Shabazz Napier, Evan Turner, and Isaiah Taylor. Karl-Anthony Towns has massive upside against a Hawks’ team that has allowed the second most fantasy points to centers this season. Towns is very affordable on DraftKings ($9,500) and is the one Wolves’ player that I may consider in a cash game setting.

Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (Out)
Derrick Rose (Out)

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 109.7 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.8 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 (4 of 16)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (DK), Jamal Crawford (DK), Nemanja Bjelica (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (FD), Jamal Crawford (FD), Nemanja Bjelica (Cash), Jeff Teague (GPP), Andrew Wiggins

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