NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-11-02 02:53:51

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		204.5					Vegas Total		204.5
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		100.5					Implied Team Total		104.0
			Pace Projection +/-		1.7					Pace Projection +/-		-2.3
Projected Starters	Malcolm Brogdon	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Thon Maker		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Jeremy Lamb	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	27	19	9	15		DvP	21	2	12	11	11
DRPM	-1.14	-0.88	2.10	-0.13	2.92		DRPM	-0.73	-0.79	0.54	1.49	-0.53

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

None

We have a beast of a 12 game slate on tap tonight, so rather than exchanging pleasantries, let’s get right into it. The Bucks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after being blown out by the Thunder at home on Tuesday night. They draw another tough matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks’ implied total of 100.5 points is the sixth lowest on the board and considerably below their season average.

The best way to attack Charlotte is with a talented point guard. Malcolm Brogdon didn’t play very well last night, but he’s typically a player that sees 33-35 minutes a game. He draws the best matchup of the five starters, as he’ll square off against Kemba Walker (-1.14 DRPM). Brogdon isn’t a core play tonight, but he’s more than playable on DraftKings at a price of $5,400, especially given the fact that he’s shooting guard eligible.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is matchup-proof, but he will likely draw the defense of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, which leaves Jeremy Lamb or Marvin Williams on Khris Middleton. I like Middleton’s shot volume this season and I also like the fact that he should be sub-10% owned tonight in tournaments. I’m not going to rule out Antetokounmpo due to the tough matchup, but this is a pace-down game against a very good defense. At his price, I see him as more of a secondary play in a 12 game slate. John Henson was a big disappointment last night, but the Hornets will need him out there against Dwight Howard. I’m fine going right back to Henson in tournaments.

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.5 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon (DK), Khris Middleton (GPP), Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Henson (GPP)

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

None

The Hornets have played well at home through the years, especially on the defensive side of the ball. While the Bucks have a lot of athleticism in their lineup, they haven’t been great defensively, ranking 16th in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential. The Hornets come into the game as 3.5-point favorites with an implied total of 104 points. Compared to the other totals in the slate, Charlotte’s is below average.

Kemba Walker is coming off of three straight 39+ fantasy point outings. Historically, he’s played very well at home and his true usage rate of 27% is enticing. His price has come up on FanDuel ($8,400), but it’s still affordable on DraftKings ($7,600). The issue with Walker is that he is only point guard eligible and there are ten point guards that I could see myself playing tonight. Jeremy Lamb has cemented his place in the starting lineup, averaging 29 fantasy points per game. He’s been great this season, but there’s a decent chance that he’ll be defended by Giannis Antetokounmpo. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist played 27 minutes the other night and will likely be asked to defend Giannis. His price is awfully cheap for a player that could see close to 30 minutes.

The only other play on my radar in this game is Dwight Howard. I’m willing to give him a pass for his 11 fantasy point outing against the Grizzlies considering how well he has played this season. He has scored at least 35 fantasy points in every other game this season, including 46 against the Bucks in their first meeting. The likes of Thon Maker and John Henson will struggle to keep him off the glass and will struggle in the pick and roll. We can buy back in on Dwight in both cash games and tournaments.

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.1 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (DK), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		10.0					Vegas Spread		-10.0
			Implied Team Total		102.8					Implied Team Total		112.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		1.8
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Domantas Sabonis		Projected Starters	Derrick Rose	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Kevin Love	Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	26	22	17	19	24		DvP	23	21	11	15	25
DRPM	-2.53	-0.77	1.57	1.93	0.95		DRPM	-1.67	1.64	-2.76	1.69	1.92

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Out)

I’m still a little tilted over Darren Collison 1x effort last night against the Kings. He ruined some really good lineups that included the likes of Mike James. Indiana now heads to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers in the second half of a back-to-back. This is an interesting game, as one team has outperformed expectations and the other has wildly underperformed. You probably don’t need a hint to figure out which is which. The Pacers are listed as 10-point underdogs here with an implied total of 102.8 points.

After burning 30% of the industry last night, I expect Darren Collison ownership to be next to nothing tonight against the Cavaliers. If you take out that one bad game, he’s actually played very well this season. He draws one of the best individual matchups on the board, as he gets to square off against an a hobbled Derrick Rose. The Cavaliers are ranked 26th against point guards this season and Rose finished last season with a DRPM of -2.53. If you think this game stays close, you should have some interest in Collison.

Victor Oladipo has failed to crack the 30 fantasy point mark in back-to-back games. While he does draw a nice matchup against J.R. Smith, I’m not sure that I want to load up on the Pacers’ backcourt in a game where they are double-digit underdogs. I’ll take my chances with Collison and move on. With Myles Turner still out, Domantas Sabonis is worth a look once again. He has scored at least 33 fantasy points in four of his last five games. His price has yet to fully reflect his recent production.

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.8 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Darren Collison (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Domantas Sabonis (GPP)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Derrick Rose (Probable)

After getting blown out by the Knicks and Pelicans, the Cavaliers will look to get back on track tonight against the Pacers. This is one of my favorite matchups on the board, although there is some concern that the game could get out of hand. The spread is currently set at ten points, which isn’t ideal. With that said, the Pacers are ranked ninth in pace of play and 21st in points allowed per game this season. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and eight points above their season average.

Derrick Rose has a fairly high usage rate (20%), but the fantasy production hasn’t followed suit. He’s not a player that we can rely on for 30+ minutes a night and he is currently averaging 0.71 FP/min. He will not be getting a rose from me tonight; there are other point guards that I fancy in this slate. J.R. Smith is a deep tournament flier at best in a slate this size. LeBron James is being asked to do a lot this season. He has a 27% usage rate, he is averaging 37 minutes per game, and he has a FP/min of 1.31. We love targeting wings against the Pacers and LeBron’s price has come down after two subpar outings. James is viable in cash games and I love the idea of pairing him with Darren Collison in tournaments.

Kevin Love has been more involved offensively this season, averaging 1.16 FP/min with a usage rate of 24%. I have no issues with his matchup against Thaddeus Young, but I don’t love the fact that the Cavaliers are limiting his playing time. They want to keep him around 30 minutes per game, which does cap his upside. I’ve fallen for the Tristan Thompson trap more times than I’d like to admit. The $3,500 price tag on FanDuel is tempting, but I will resist the urge.

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love

Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		228.0					Vegas Total		228.0
			Vegas Spread		12.0					Vegas Spread		-12.0
			Implied Team Total		108.0					Implied Team Total		120.0
			Pace Projection +/-		2.6					Pace Projection +/-		7.2
Projected Starters	Mike James	Devin Booker	T.J. Warren	Marquese Chriss	Tyson Chandler		Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Kelly Oubre	Otto Porter	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	5	29	16	9		DvP	30	28	16	23	3
DRPM	-0.83	-0.94	-0.11	0.03	1.33		DRPM	N/A	-2.66	-2.50	-1.80	2.31

Phoenix Suns

Notable Injuries

None

The Suns picked up a nice win in Brooklyn last night in a game that you had to have exposure to if you wanted to have a shot at cashing in tournaments. Tonight they head to Washington to take on the Wizards in the nation’s capital. I’m always hesitant to trust teams playing in back-to-back road games, especially inconsistent ones like the Suns. This game has some serious blowout potential, but it also has some serious upside. The total is set at 228 points, which is the highest of any game on the schedule.

Mike James was terrific last night against the Nets. I hope you took my advice and played him for the talent and matchup, rather than focusing on his two bad outings in bad matchups. I’m a little more hesitant to play James tonight against the Wizards, although I still love the price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If the game gets out of hand, there’s a good chance that Tyler Ulis could come in and play the fourth quarter. For that reason, I see James as more of a tournament play than a cash game option.

Devin Booker showed no signs of a hangover last night (it was his birthday on Monday), finishing the game with 42 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action. He is the Suns’ best player and the only one that we can count on to play minutes in the 30s regularly. His price on FanDuel ($7,200) is appealing, but again, I’m a little worried about a blowout. As for the rest of the Suns, we are really just playing roulette and hoping for the best. We have three timeshares that are going to frustrate DFS players all season — small forward (T.J. Warren #josh-jackson)Josh Jackson”:/players/josh-jackson-37890), power forward (Marquese Chriss #dragan-bender)Dragan Bender”:/players/dragan-bender-35228), and center (Tyson Chandler #alex-len)Alex Len”:/players/alex-len-16886).

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.8 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.7 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Mike James (GPP), Devin Booker (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mike James (Cash), Devin Booker (Cash), T.J. Warren (FD)

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

The Nets are off tonight, which means the Wizards have the best matchup on the schedule. The Suns are currently ranked second in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. They are basically the perfect matchup for fantasy production, which is evidenced in the Wizards’ implied total of 120 points. Washington’s total is the highest in the slate and is eight points above their season average.

You can honestly make an argument for all five of the Wizards’ starters. The concern here is a potential blowout, but I’m usually more inclined to use players from the team that is favored in these situations. John Wall has had a high floor this season (34+ fantasy points in every game), but he has yet to show the ceiling that we know he is capable of. Perhaps a matchup against the Suns will help get him there. If Wall sees a full complement of minutes, he should be able to reach and exceed value. Bradley Beal draws an elite matchup as well. Last season, Devin Booker had a DRPM of -2.66. Beal relies on scoring for most of his fantasy production, which is why I like to avoid him in difficult matchups and load up on him in easy ones.

Markieff Morris is ready to get back to action, but he still has a one-game suspension to serve. He should be back in the lineup on Wednesday, which gives Kelly Oubre and Otto Porter one more night to benefit from his absence. While they’ve both been playing great, I have a hard time overpaying for players, especially in large slates. I wouldn’t rule them out completely in a pace-up game against Phoenix, but there are better cash game options available. Marcin Gortat has the worst matchup of the five starters, but I actually give him a bump tonight because the Suns like to play big. With Gortat, it’s less about the matchup and more about the minutes.

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 116.7 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 108.3 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (Cash), Kelly Oubre (GPP), Otto Porter (GPP), Marcin Gortat

Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		210.0					Vegas Total		210.0
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		101.0					Implied Team Total		109.0
			Pace Projection +/-		2.0					Pace Projection +/-		0.4
Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Mike Muscala	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	Jerryd Bayless	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	29	4	2	29		DvP	15	26	9	25	14
DRPM	N/A	-0.47	-1.80	4.38	2.30		DRPM	-2.53	-1.09	2.66	-0.74	4.86

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Ersan Ilyasova (Out)

The Hawks beat the Mavericks in their first game of the season and have since lost six in a row. They’ve been plagued by injuries, but the truth of the matter is that they aren’t a talented basketball team. They are going to have trouble competing on a nightly basis, even in the Cupcake Conference (East). They come into tonight’s game as 8-point underdogs against the Sixers. While the spread is high, this is still an exploitable matchup. Philadelphia is ranked eighth in pace of play and 23rd in points allowed per game this season.

Dennis Schroder might be my favorite tournament play of the slate. It’s still early and a lot can changed based on news that comes out throughout the day, but if the Hawks are going to keep this game close, it will be on the shoulders of Schroder. He has a massive 33% true usage rate this season and is averaging 39 fantasy points per game despite shooting 28% from the three-point line. He should benefit from a pace-up game against Philadelphia and it’s not like we need to worry about Jerryd Bayless and T.J. McConnell slowing him down.

Outside of Schroder, there isn’t a lot to love. Kent Bazemore sees a usage bump in the wrong direction when playing alongside Schroder and Taurean Prince has been too inconsistent to trust at his price point. If you want to give Mike Muscala another shot with Ersan Ilyasova out, I’m not going to talk you out of it. We’ve seen him put together some big fantasy outings over the years when given the chance to start. I’d rather take a GPP flier on John Collins, who is averaging 1.18 FP/min off the bench this season.

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.1 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (Cash), Mike Muscala (GPP), John Collins (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

J.J. Redick (Probable)

The Sixers have yet to win at home this season, but something tells me that will change tonight. They come into the game as 8-point favorites against the Hawks, who have lost each of their last six games. This is a favorable matchup for Philadelphia, as Atlanta is ranked 20th in points allowed per game and dead last in rebounding differential. The fact that the Sixers’ implied total is five point above their season average is just icing on the cake.

J.J. Redick is expected to play tonight, which should send Dario Saric back to the bench. It will also cut into the minutes of Jerryd Bayless and T.J. McConnell, who have been nice value plays the last couple of games. For now, I will be avoiding all four given the fact that there are so many options to choose from at each position in this slate. Ben Simmons continues to dominate, averaging 43 fantasy points per game with a true usage of 24%. While he’ll likely draw the defense of Taurean Prince, his ability to fill up the stat sheet puts him in play once again.

Robert Covington production has been all over the map this season. I avoid him in large slates when it comes to cash games, but I always make sure to buy a few shares in tournaments. He has 7x type of upside thanks to his ability to get hot from the three-point line and rack up blocks and steals. My favorite play from Philadelphia is Joel Embiid and it’s not even close. He only played 24 minutes against the Rockets the other night (due to first half foul trouble) and he still finished with 46 fantasy points. He now gets to face the worst rebounding team in the NBA. Embiid is a cash game lock at his price point, as he has yet to score less than 37 fantasy points in a game this season.

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -7.1 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (Cash), Robert Covington (GPP)

Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Sacramento Kings							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		198.5					Vegas Total		198.5
			Vegas Spread		13.0					Vegas Spread		-13.0
			Implied Team Total		92.8					Implied Team Total		105.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.1					Pace Projection +/-		-3.2
Projected Starters	George Hill	Buddy Hield	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Zach Randolph	Willie Cauley-Stein		Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	3	1	30	1	23		DvP	11	15	1	18	30
DRPM	-2.16	-0.10	N/A	1.59	2.81		DRPM	0.60	-2.24	N/A	-1.06	1.06

Sacramento Kings

Notable Injuries

George Hill (Questionable)
Zach Randolph (Questionable)

The Kings were blown out last night against the Pacers and now have to play their second road game in as many nights. They are listed as 13-point underdogs against the Celtics in a game that features a total of only 198.5 points. This is not a good matchup by any means, as Boston is ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Kings’ implied total of 92.8 points is the lowest of the 24 teams in action tonight.

The only reason to target the Kings tonight is if they decide to rest George Hill and/or Zach Randolph. If they are both active, we can avoid this team altogether. Their rotation is too deep and the chances of this turning into a blowout are too great. If Hill is out, De’Aaron Fox would become an intriguing option. If Randolph is out, Skal Labissiere would likely slide into the starting lineup. My hope is that everyone from Sacramento plays so that I don’t have to deal with the headache that is the Kings.

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 94.9 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.6 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – TBD

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Marcus Morris (Doubtful)

After their offseason acquisitions, I expected the Celtics to be one of the best offensive teams in the Eastern Conference. Through seven games, they have gotten the job done on the other end of the floor, holding their opponents to 94.9 points per game. Their stellar play on defense should continue tonight against one of the worst offenses in the NBA. If that’s the case, the Celtics won’t have to push the pace. This is still a favorable matchup for Boston, but their implied total isn’t that high and we have to factor in the potential for this game to turn into a blowout.

Kyrie Irving has scored at least 43 fantasy points in three straight games and he’s done it in difficult matchups against the Spurs, Bucks, and Heat. Facing the likes of George Hill and/or De’Aaron Fox should be a walk in the park. However, I want to keep my eye on Kyrie’s production. The sample is still small, but it seems like he’s been more aggressive against tougher opponents and he’s been more of a facilitator in the easier matchups. I have some interest in tournaments, but the spread is too high for me to trust Irving in a cash game setting.

Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have similar stats this season, similar minute projections for tonight, and similar price tags across the industry. Both should benefit from a sloppy Kings’ team that likes to turn the ball over and give their opponents easy buckets in transition. I don’t see them as core plays, but I like their price points on FanDuel. I don’t have a ton of interest in Al Horford or Marcus Smart, even though this is a nice matchup for both.

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP), Jaylen Brown (FD), Jayson Tatum (FD)

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