Sign In Get the App $ $

NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 25th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-25 19:04:15

Article Image

Sacramento Kings at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Sacramento Kings Milwaukee Bucks
Article Image Vegas Total 207.0 Article Image Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 103.10 Team Pace 94.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Omri Casspi Willie Cauley-Stein Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 6 7 26 24 15 Opp. Season 19 29 20 26 24
Opp. Last 7 2 12 25 18 27 Opp. Last 7 20 29 15 28 16

Sacramento Kings (Record: 5-10, Road: 1-5)

The Kings seem like they are having a better season than they really are. It’s probably because we look at teams through a daily fantasy basketball scope and DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo have both been fantasy superstars. However, in real life the Kings are only 5-10 on the season, with a 1-5 record on the road. Sacramento may be without Cousins tonight though, as he is listed as doubtful.

The Bucks have really struggled defensively this season, ranking 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Kings have an implied team total of 101 points tonight, which is three points lower than their average on the season.

With DeMarcus Cousins doubtful tonight, that really opens the door for quite a few fantasy options from the Kings. He is responsible for so much of the Kings’ production on both ends of the floor that the entire team sees a fantasy boost in his absence. Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay will both see an increase in usage, while Willie Cauley-Stein, Kosta Koufos, and Omri Casspi should all see an increase in playing time.

Elite Plays

Rajon Rondo

FD — $8,400
DK — $9,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 14.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.7 | Last Five Games: 40.6
FP/Game — Season: 38.5 | Last Five Games: 43.6

Rudy Gay

FD — $7,600
DK — $7,000
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 33.3
FP/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 33.9

Secondary Plays

Omri Casspi

Bump him up to an elite play if he starts.
FD — $4,100
DK — $4,700
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 13.5
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 20.7

Milwaukee Bucks (Record: 6-8, Home: 4-3)

The Bucks have been a big disappointment this season, but their is still plenty of basketball to be played. They are coming off of one of their best wins of the season, as they demolished the Pistons at home on Monday night. Tonight they host the visiting Kings, who will likely be without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins.

The Kings have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are an average rebounding team, but they are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks have an implied team total of 106 points tonight, which is the fourth highest on the board tonight.

This is really a great spot for the Bucks. The biggest issue this season has been trying to predict the rotation of Jason Kidd. So far, that has not been easy. So far, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greg Monroe have seen the most consistent playing time. They are the recommended plays in this matchup. Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker are both viable secondary options.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

FD — $7,800
DK — $7,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 20.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 32.1

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD — $7,000
DK — $7,000
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 31.9

Secondary Plays

Khris Middleton

FD — $5,500
DK — $5,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.1 | Last Five Games: 17.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 21.1

Jabari Parker

FD — $5,300
DK — $4,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Min/Game — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 27.3
FP/Game — Season: 15.1 | Last Five Games: 18.5

Brooklyn Nets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM

Brooklyn Nets Oklahoma City Thunder
Article Image Vegas Total 211.5 Article Image Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Sprd 12.5 Vegas Sprd -12.5
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 112.0
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 100.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Joe Johnson Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 11 27 13 13 6 Opp. Season 23 28 21 3 22
Opp. Last 7 11 11 10 11 12 Opp. Last 7 27 30 27 6 17

Brooklyn Nets (Record: 3-11, Road: 1-8)

The Nets are only 3-11 on the season, with a 1-8 record on the road. They draw a very tough matchup tonight against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. The Nets are listed as 12.5-point favorites in a game that could easily turn into a blowout.

The Thunder have been better defensively in their last few games. Despite playing at a very fast pace, they are ranked 17th in defensive efficiency and 15th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Nets are large underdogs tonight and they have a low implied team total of 99.5 points. In a game that could potentially be over by the end of the third quarter, the Nets should only be targeted in tournaments.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young

FD — $6,400
DK — $7,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 21.6
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 36.8

Jarrett Jack

FD — $6,400
DK — $6,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 20.3
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 32.9

Oklahoma City Thunder (Record: 9-6, Home: 6-3)

The Thunder were happy to have Kevin Durant back in the lineup on Monday night. They made one of the best defensive teams in the NBA look like the Sixers. With Russell Westbrook and Durant playing at such a high level, they are poised to make a run at one of the top seed in the Western Conference.

The Nets have not played well defensively this season, ranking 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Thunder have an implied team total of 112 points tonight, which is easily the highest on the board.

Russell Westbrook has as much upside as any player on the schedule tonight, but with Kevin Durant back in the lineup, he is no longer a must play at point guard. Westbrook doesn’t need to take over like he does when Durant is out. For that reason, I will only be using him in tournaments tonight. Durant is a strong play at small forward, but he’s basically the same price as LeBron James. I’d give the edge to James, as that game is expected to stay close throughout.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD — $11,600
DK — $11,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 32.9
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 53.0 | Last Five Games: 57.6

Kevin Durant

FD — $10,200
DK — $9,600
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 42.9 | Last Five Games: 41.7

Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Houston Rockets
Article Image Vegas Total 197.5 Article Image Vegas Total 197.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 100.5
Team Pace 97.00 Team Pace 100.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Jason Terry James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 25 23 27 30 20 Opp. Season 18 10 18 23 7
Opp. Last 7 16 17 21 14 25 Opp. Last 7 4 22 13 4 20

Memphis Grizzlies (Record: 8-7, Road: 3-5)

The Grizzlies are back to their winning ways. They are 8-7 on the season and the arrow is pointing up. Tonight they head to Houston to take on the struggling Rockets. This will be a pace-up game for Memphis, as Houston has averaged over 100 possessions per game this season.

The Rockets are one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA in the first month of the season. They have been awful defensively, ranking 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Grizzlies implied team total of 97 points may not seem high, but it is actually a point and a half higher than their average on the season.

Jeff Green is finally back in the good graces of daily fantasy basketball players everywhere. He has always been more talented than his numbers have shown, but he is finally starting to play up to his talent level. Over his last five games, he has averaged 26.7 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are borderline elite plays here as well, especially if Zach Randolph is forced to miss another game. Both players would see a small boost in usage with Randolph out.

Elite Plays

Jeff Green

FD — $4,500
DK — $4,800
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.8 | Last Five Games: 16.7
Min/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 17.8 | Last Five Games: 26.7

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

Bump him up to an elite play if Zach Randolph is out.
FD — $7,800
DK — $7,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 37.1
FP/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 35.4

Mike Conley

Bump him up to an elite play if Zach Randolph is out.
FD — $6,900
DK — $6,800
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 23.7
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 37.3

Houston Rockets (Record: 5-9, Home: 3-6)

We seem to all be waiting for the Rockets to turn things around, but after firing Kevin McHale, they may have bigger issues than we originally though. They are now 5-9 on the season with a paltry 3-6 record at home. They will look to break out of their slump tonight, as they host the visiting Grizzlies.

On paper, this appears to be an average matchup, but the Grizzlies are a much better defense than their numbers indicate this season. They have been a top five defense in each of the last three seasons and they are slowly trending that way again, after a slow start. The Rockets are only projected to score 100.5 points tonight, which is below the average team total for the 24 teams in action tonight.

James Harden will likely be a popular play at shooting guard tonight, but I’m looking to spend up elsewhere. Harden draws a difficult matchup tonight against the likes of Tony Allen, Jeff Green, and Matt Barnes. When these two teams met up last week, Harden committed six turnovers en route to a 38.7 fantasy point outing (FD scoring). Dwight Howard should see a full complement of minutes, but I’m not a big fan of his matchup, either. Marc Gasol is one of the best low-post defenders in basketball.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

James Harden

FD — $10,400
DK — $10,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.9 | Last Five Games: 26.7
Min/Game — Season: 38.9 | Last Five Games: 38.5
FP/Game — Season: 46.2 | Last Five Games: 47.5

Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Minnesota Timberwolves
Article Image Vegas Total 205.0 Article Image Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 98.90 Team Pace 99.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 14 9 11 8 14 Opp. Season 15 26 10 17 25
Opp. Last 7 23 3 14 2 28 Opp. Last 7 12 21 26 15 7

Atlanta Hawks (Record: 10-6, Road: 4-3)

The Hawks are 10-6 to start the season and surprisingly, that is only good enough for fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. They have a chance for a little revenge tonight against the Wolves, after Minnesota beat Atlanta on their own home floor a couple of weeks ago. The Hawks are 3-point favorites tonight in a game that features a total of 205 points.

The Hawks draw an average matchup tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked between ninth and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks are projected to score 104 points though, which is a couple of points higher than their average on the season.

The Hawks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight. Even though it’s still very early in the season, the Hawks continuously rested starters in back-to-backs last year. If you are using any Hawks’ players tonight, just make sure that they are in the starting lineup. If Kent Bazemore is out again tonight, Kyle Korver and Thabo Sefolosha would both make viable value plays. Paul Millsap remains an elite play at power forward. He has averaged 41.9 fantasy points per game in his last five.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

FD — $8,600
DK — $8,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 38.7 | Last Five Games: 41.9

Secondary Plays

Kyle Korver

FD — $4,600
DK — $4,500
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.5 | Last Five Games: 12.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 19.5

Thabo Sefolosha

FD — $3,900
DK — $4,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.0 | Last Five Games: 13.1
Min/Game — Season: 22.5 | Last Five Games: 26.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 21.6

Minnesota Timberwolves (Record: 6-8, Home: 1-6)

The Wolves have stumbled recently, after a very nice start to the season. They are only 4-6 in their last ten games, with an ugly 1-6 record at home. Tonight they host the Hawks in what should be a fairly fast-paced game.

The Hawks haven’t been great defensively, but they have been better in the last couple of weeks. They are now ranked between 12th and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Wolves are small underdogs here, but they are projected to score 101 points, which is a respectable team total.

Karl-Anthony Towns let a lot of people down on Monday night, after getting into foul trouble. He ended up playing only 19 minutes. If recency bias has taught us anything it’s that his ownership should be lower than necessary tonight, all thanks to one bad outing. I’m back on the Towns bandwagon though, as he should see 30+ minutes against the Hawks, who are ranked 25th against centers this season. Andrew Wiggins is also worth a look at small forward and I’m not giving up on Kevin Martin just yet. Martin is a great tournament play if he remains in the starting lineup.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD — $6,900
DK — $7,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Min/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 31.0

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins

FD — $7,500
DK — $7,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.1 | Last Five Games: 25.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 35.3

Kevin Martin

FD — $4,500
DK — $4,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 23.1
FP/Game — Season: 18.3 | Last Five Games: 16.5

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM

Dallas Mavericks San Antonio Spurs
Article Image Vegas Total 196.0 Article Image Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 93.5 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 100.20 Team Pace 96.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 24 1 1 5 1 Opp. Season 22 6 6 27 9
Opp. Last 7 10 5 5 27 14 Opp. Last 7 26 10 18 23 8

Dallas Mavericks (Record: 9-6, Road: 5-4)

The Mavericks have lost two games in a row, but they had won seven of their previous eight, so they are still coming into tonight’s game in good form. The big problem here is that they have to face the Spurs in San Antonio.

The Spurs have been the worst team to target players against this season. They are ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Mavericks are only projected to score 93.5 points tonight, which is eight points lower than their season average. Once again, I will be fading all players that are facing the Spurs.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio Spurs (Record: 11-3, Home: 7-0)

The Spurs are 11-3 to start the season, including a perfect 7-0 record at home. They are listed as 9-point favorites tonight against the Mavericks in a game that could potentially be yet another blowout for San Antonio.

The Mavericks have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 10th and 21st in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Spurs have an implied team total of 102.5 points tonight, which is slightly higher than their average on the season.

LaMarcus Aldridge is expected to return to the lineup tonight against the Mavericks, which would send David West back to the bench. His return wouldn’t hurt the appeal of Kawhi Leonard though, who has been terrific all season. Leonard is averaging 38.8 fantasy points per game with a turnover-adjusted usage rate of 22.4. Tony Parker is worth a look in tournaments. He has quietly had a nice stretch of games, averaging 30.2 fantasy points over his last five.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD — $8,800
DK — $8,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 21.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 38.8 | Last Five Games: 40.8

Secondary Plays

Tony Parker

FD — $5,500
DK — $5,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 20.1
Min/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 30.2

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious