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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-27 18:58:55

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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New York Knicks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

New York Knicks Orlando Magic
Article Image Vegas Total 196.0 Article Image Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 97.00 Team Pace 98.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 28 5 14 18 21 Opp. Season 13 17 4 5 12
Opp. Last 7 18 7 11 25 29 Opp. Last 7 15 27 1 7 22

New York Knicks (Record: 8-7, Road: 5-3)

The Knicks have been impressive this season, sporting an 8-7 record in their first 15 games. They have even played well on the road, which could be thanks to the number of veterans in this lineup. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on the Magic in what should be one of the slowest-paced games on the schedule.

The Magic have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking 14th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Knicks implied team total of 97.3 points may seem low, but that is actually right around their average points scored for the season.

When it comes to the Knicks, there are basically two fantasy options – Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. Anthony draws a decent matchup against Evan Fournier, but he isn’t my favorite superstar to spend up on tonight. Porzingis has been incredibly productive this season (1.07 fantasy points per minute), but his minutes have been difficult to predict. They are trending in the right direction, but at his price point, I see him as a secondary play tonight against the Magic.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

FD — $9,100
DK — $8,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 24.0
Min/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 35.5
FP/Game — Season: 37.2 | Last Five Games: 37.0

Kristaps Porzingis

FD — $6,700
DK — $7,000
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 26.9 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 35.5

Orlando Magic (Record: 6-8, Home: 4-3)

The Magic are 6-8 on the season, but they do have a 4-3 record at home. They are 1.5-point favorites tonight against the Knicks in a game that features a total of only 196 points. After the Magic lost to the Cavaliers on Monday night, coach Scott Skiles hinted that there would be a lineup change coming. It appears that Victor Oladipo will head to the bench, with Channing Frye making his way into the starting lineup.

The Knicks are actually a tough matchup for opponents. They play at a slow pace (97 possessions per game) and they are ranked at or above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Magic have an implied team total of 98.8 points, which is two points lower than their average this season.

It will be interesting to see if Scott Skiles actually makes a change to his starting lineup tonight. If he does make a move, the player that is inserted into the starting lineup will likely be given a chance to produce, so keep an eye out for their lineup as we get closer to tip-off. Nikola Vucevic is a strong play at center tonight. His price has come down across the industry and the Knicks have not fared well against opposing centers. Evan Fournier is also worth a look here, especially since Victor Oladipo will now come off the bench. Fournier may see a slight boost in usage.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic

FD — $7,300
DK — $6,800
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 21.8
Min/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 26.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 28.6

Secondary Plays

Evan Fournier

FD — $5,900
DK — $6,700
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 34.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 30.1

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Washington Wizards Charlotte Hornets
Article Image Vegas Total 209.5 Article Image Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 103.3 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 102.10 Team Pace 98.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Kris Humphries Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Kemba Walker P.J. Hairston Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 8 12 12 29 17 Opp. Season 9 20 30 15 8
Opp. Last 7 22 9 7 24 24 Opp. Last 7 14 1 30 1 10

Washington Wizards (Record: 6-5, Road: 3-2)

The Wizards have only played 11 games this season, which is a bit surprising considering the fact that a lot of teams have played 15 games already. Washington heads to Charlotte tonight to take on the red-hot Hornets. This should be a very high-scoring game, as the total is set at 209.5 points.

The Hornets have picked up their pace of play recently. On the season, they are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Wizards have an implied team total of 103.3 points tonight, which is the eighth highest total of the 24 teams in action.

John Wall is in a bit of a slump, but his price has come down across the industry. Tonight could be a great time to buy low on him, as he is priced at only $8,300 on DraftKings. Bradley Beal is coming off of a strong performance against the Pacers last night. He looks like his shoulder injury is behind him and given his discounted price, he deserves consideration as an elite play tonight. He will likely have to deal with Nicolas Batum, but the expected pace of the game overrides the difficult individual matchup. Otto Porter is also in play at small forward, although his usage is hurt with Beal back in the lineup.

Elite Plays

John Wall

FD — $8,800
DK — $8,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 20.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 27.6

Brad Beal

FD — $6,900
DK — $6,600
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 20.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.9 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 21.3

Secondary Plays

Otto Porter

FD — $5,800
DK — $5,900
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 16.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 30.1
FP/Game — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 27.8

Charlotte Hornets (Record: 8-6, Home: 6-1)

The Hornets have won three in a row and seven of their last ten games. They are coming off of an incredible comeback victory over the Kings in a game where they were down by as many as 22 late in the second half. The Hornets will look to continue their stellar play tonight against the Wizards at home.

It’s shocking how bad the Wizards have been defensively this season. They are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hornets have an implied team total of 106.3 points tonight, which is the third highest on the board.

The Hornets are one of my favorite teams to target tonight, although only two of their players should be considered “safe” cash game options. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are the only two starters that are guaranteed to see more than 30 minutes. The Hornets game the other night was a perfect example, as Al Jefferson, Marvin Williams, and P.J. Hairston were all on the bench for the fourth quarter and overtime. Walker’s price has taken a big leap since Monday, but he is still an elite play tonight in his matchup against the Wizards. Batum deserves the elite play tag as well, as the Wizards are dead last in fantasy points allowed to small forwards. He is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game, so make sure to check his status closer to tip-off.

Elite Plays

Kemba Walker

FD — $8,200
DK — $7,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 41.6

Nicolas Batum

FD — $7,000
DK — $7,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 17.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 31.5

Secondary Plays

Al Jefferson

FD — $7,100
DK — $6,500
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 25.1
Min/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 28.6 | Last Five Games: 34.6

Marvin Williams

FD — $4,900
DK — $5,700
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.6 | Last Five Games: 10.7
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 20.7

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Toronto Raptors
Article Image Vegas Total 198.0 Article Image Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 98.3
Team Pace 95.60 Team Pace 97.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Matthew Dellavedova J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 5 16 7 10 19 Opp. Season 4 13 17 7 3
Opp. Last 7 9 6 2 19 5 Opp. Last 7 5 15 17 21 6

Cleveland Cavaliers (Record: 11-3, Road: 3-3)

The Cavaliers are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, but they are only 3-3 on the road. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors in what is expected to be a close game throughout. The Cavaliers are 1.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 198 points.

The Raptors have been elite defensively this season, ranking eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Cavaliers are only projected to score 99.8 points, which is five points lower than their average on the season.

Even though the Cavaliers have a difficult matchup on paper, at least we don’t have to worry about this game turning into a blowout. LeBron James should always be considered when he is guaranteed to see a full complement of minutes. He may not have the most upside of the superstars in action tonight, but he is a nice building block in cash games. Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both borderline elite plays down low. Timofey Mozgov remains sidelined with his shoulder injury. It sounds like Mo Williams will be back for tonight’s game, which hurts the fantasy appeal of J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

FD — $10,100
DK — $10,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 25.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 45.4 | Last Five Games: 45.5

Tristan Thompson

FD — $5,700
DK — $5,800
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.6 | Last Five Games: 10.0
Min/Game — Season: 26.5 | Last Five Games: 29.3
FP/Game — Season: 22.8 | Last Five Games: 23.7

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

FD — $8,300
DK — $8,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 35.5
FP/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 41.9

Toronto Raptors (Record: 9-6, Home: 3-1)

The Raptors are 9-6 on the season, which is impressive considering the fact that only four of their 15 games have been at home. They have a tough test in front of them tonight, but this could be a statement game from a Raptors’ team that is looking to take that next step this season.

The Cavaliers are one of the toughest opponents to target players against in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Raptors have an implied team total of 98.3 points, which is nearly three points lower than their average this season.

Even though the Raptors find themselves in a difficult matchup tonight, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are both in play. Lowry has a knack of stepping up in big games and he draws a nice matchup against Mo Williams. DeRozan also draws a decent matchup against J.R. Smith. I hesitate to list either player as an elite play tonight, but they are both strong secondary options at their respective positions. DeMarre Carroll is a sneaky tournament play tonight. He will be tasked with defending LeBron James and could see 35+ minutes of action.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD — $8,600
DK — $8,500
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 22.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 37.7
FP/Game — Season: 38.6 | Last Five Games: 38.9

DeMar DeRozan

FD — $7,500
DK — $7,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 25.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 36.9
FP/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 32.7

DeMarre Carroll

FD — $6,100
DK — $5,800
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 14.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 27.2

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Miami Heat Detroit Pistons
Article Image Vegas Total 188.0 Article Image Vegas Total 188.0
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 94.8 Team Proj. 93.3
Team Pace 96.60 Team Pace 97.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Gerald Green Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 10 22 3 22 4 Opp. Season 2 2 24 11 10
Opp. Last 7 24 19 6 3 23 Opp. Last 7 7 4 23 10 4

Miami Heat (Record: 9-4, Road: 1-2)

The Heat have had an easy start to the season, as ten of their first 13 games have been at home. While their 9-4 record is nothing to scoff at, they may not be as good as their current record indicates. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons in what is expected to be a slow-paced game. Both of these teams average less than 98 possessions per game. Luol Deng is doubtful for tonight’s game, which should open up minutes for Josh Richardson, Gerald Green, and Justise Winslow.

Even though the Pistons have struggled over the last couple of weeks, their play on the defensive end of the floor has still been solid. On the season, Detroit is ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Heat are only projected to score 94.8 points tonight, which is the fourth lowest implied team total on the board tonight.

If there were only a few games on the schedule, we would have to consider taking players from this game. However, with 12 games on tap tonight, we shouldn’t force any Heat players into our lineups. The Heat are a slow-paced team with a balanced offense. They also have a difficult matchup against the Pistons. There are too many red flags here for me. Gerald Green is the only target I’m considering here. He is a decent value if he draws the start for Luol Deng.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Gerald Green

FD — $3,500
DK — $3,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 16.4
FP/Game — Season: 11.0 | Last Five Games: 11.6

Detroit Pistons (Record: 7-7, Home: 3-2)

The Pistons forgot to show up in the second half of their loss against the Bucks on Monday night. Detroit has lost two games in a row and six of their last ten. They will look to end their losing streak tonight, as they host the visiting Heat.

This game is a battle between two slow-paced teams that both have above-average defenses. The Heat are ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Pistons have an implied team total of only 93.3 points, which is the lowest implied team total on the board. Fantasy options are very limited in this game, however Andre Drummond is worth a look in tournaments. He would also be cash game-playable if Hassan Whiteside (questionable) is unable to suit up.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond

FD — $9,600
DK — $9,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 18.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 44.2 | Last Five Games: 39.2

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Boston Celtics
Article Image Vegas Total 199.5 Article Image Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Sprd 10.5 Vegas Sprd -10.5
Team Proj. 94.5 Team Proj. 105.0
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Isaiah Canaan Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 3 19 23 20 13 Opp. Season 20 3 29 28 27
Opp. Last 7 13 16 20 29 13 Opp. Last 7 6 18 28 30 26

Philadelphia 76ers (Record: 0-15, Road: 0-8)

The Sixers continue to inch closer to their first win of the season, but they continue to falter down the stretch. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics. While the Sixers are obviously large underdogs in this matchup, at least the Celtics are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. Philadelphia will be without Nik Stauskas tonight. Robert Covington or Isaiah Canaan will likely draw the start in his place.

The Celtics have been good defensively this season, ranking 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Sixers have a low implied team total of 94.5 points, but the Sixers always have a low implied team total.

There are only two options on my radar from the Sixers tonight. Jahlil Okafor is having a very nice rookie season and the Celtics’ interior defense is less than stellar. Robert Covington is also worth a look off the bench. He has scored 33 and 28 fantasy points (FD scoring) in his last two games and could potentially draw the start for the injured Nik Stauskas.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jahlil Okafor

FD — $6,600
DK — $6,900
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 20.3
Min/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 29.8

Robert Covington

FD — $5,700
DK — $4,800
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 26.0 | Last Five Games: 26.8
FP/Game — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 22.1

Boston Celtics (Record: 7-7, Home: 4-4)

The Celtics just can’t seem to string together wins this season. They look great one night and then they turn around and get blown out the next. If there is a blowout tonight, the Celtics will likely be on the winning end of it. They are listed as 10.5-point favorites against the Sixers at home.

The Sixers present a very favorable matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Celtics have an implied team total of 105 points, which is the fifth highest on the board tonight.

Assuming the Sixers can keep this game within striking distance, the Celtics make a great team to target tonight. The problem is that it’s difficult to assume that the Sixers can keep this game close. Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley should both continue to see a boost in Marcus Smart absence. Jared Sullinger should be able to dominate the paint, although his minutes have been difficult to predict. All three players are borderline elite options tonight, but they all come with an inherent risk of a blowout.

Elite Plays

Avery Bradley

FD — $6,000
DK — $5,900
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 29.3
FP/Game — Season: 24.8 | Last Five Games: 32.4

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD — $7,600
DK — $7,700
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 25.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 31.4

Jared Sullinger

FD — $6,000
DK — $6,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 18.5
Min/Game — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 25.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.9 | Last Five Games: 23.9

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious