NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 8th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.3 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 13 | 23 | 10 | 2 | DvP | 20 | 12 | 13 | 29 | 27 | |
| DRPM | -2.98 | -1.13 | -0.03 | -0.53 | 1.37 | DRPM | -1.67 | 1.64 | -2.76 | 1.69 | 2.43 | |
Indiana Pacers
Notable Injuries
Domantas Sabonis (Out)
The Pacers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Pelicans at home on Tuesday. They now have to travel to Detroit to take on a tough Pistons’ team that currently owns the second best record in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are never a great matchup for fantasy production, as they play at a slow pace and have a stout defense, especially at home. The Pacers come into the game with an implied total of only 101.3 points, which is the lowest of the slate and 9.3 points below their season average.
Reggie Jackson is not an elite defender, but the Pistons have held opposing shooting guards to the third fewest fantasy points per game this season. This could be a product of their team defense or it could be an anomaly given the small sample. At this point, I’m not going to purposely target or fade point guards against Detroit based on the matchup alone. Darren Collison could be a sneaky tournament option at sub-15% ownership. He’s been inconsistent this season, but already has three 45+ fantasy point outings under his belt.
If you played Victor Oladipo last night, then you were likely tilting as much as I was. He didn’t play a single minute in the second quarter because Lance Stephenson was playing so well. This was impossible to see coming and there is nothing we can do about it. I doubt that happens again the rest of the season. Avery Bradley used to be an elite defender, but his numbers have slipped a bit in the last two seasons. He had a -1.13 DRPM last season and his defensive rating and win share numbers aren’t great this season. I’m willing to bank on the high usage of Oladipo, especially on FanDuel at a price of only $7,300.
Bojan Bogdanovic has scored at least 22 fantasy points in five of his last six games. While it’s nice to see some consistency, I’m not sure it’s sustainable. He’s a streaky shooter that relies on points for a large portion of his fantasy production. As soon as he has a bad shooting game (which is very possible against Detroit), he is going to put up a dud. I’d rather take a chance on Lance Stephenson or Cory Joseph off the bench, although neither stand out as great plays.
The Pacers’ frontcourt could be a popular target tonight with Domantas Sabonis out. Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner will play all of the minutes that they can handle. Against the Pelicans last night, Young played 38 minutes and scored 28 fantasy points, while Turner played 35 minutes and scored 41 fantasy points. Detroit has a stout frontcourt defensively, but Young and Turner are both viable thanks to the boost in their playing time.
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.5 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -9.3 (10 of 10)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,900 | 29.7 | -5.5 | 32.1 | 0.9 | 0.93 | 18.7% | 59.6% | 3 | -2.98 |
| Victor Oladipo | $7,300 | $7,700 | $13,800 | 36.7 | -1.5 | 32.1 | 2.5 | 1.14 | 27.2% | 59.1% | 13 | -1.13 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,700 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 20.0 | 2.9 | 28.5 | 0.4 | 0.70 | 16.0% | 63.4% | 23 | -0.03 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,400 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 28.8 | -0.9 | 33.9 | 3.5 | 0.85 | 15.8% | 58.2% | 10 | -0.53 |
| Myles Turner | $7,500 | $7,000 | $13,600 | 37.8 | -5.6 | 29.4 | -1.4 | 1.28 | 21.5% | 55.6% | 2 | 1.37 |
| Lance Stephenson | $3,300 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 15.6 | 4.2 | 19.9 | 2.1 | 0.78 | 19.4% | 36.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Cory Joseph | $3,900 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 18.0 | -4.0 | 23.1 | -1.5 | 0.78 | 17.4% | 54.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (FD), Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (DK & FDRFT), Darren Collison (GPP), Myles Turner (Cash)
Detroit Pistons
Notable Injuries
Stanley Johnson (Out)
The Pistons have outperformed expectations in the first ten games of the season. They are 7-3 and second place in the Eastern Conference standings. This isn’t a team that I expect to challenge for home-court advantage in the East, but they should be able to make the playoffs. Tonight they host a Pacers’ team that has really struggled defensively, ranking 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Stan Van Gundy’s crew has an implied total of 107.8 points, which is three points above their season average.
Reggie Jackson is basically locked into 28-32 minutes a night, as long as the game stays relatively close. He leads the team with a true usage rate of 27% and he is one of two Pistons’ players averaging over a fantasy point per minute. He draws an exploitable matchup against Darren Collison (-1.67 DRPM) and the Pacers, who are ranked 20th against point guards this season. Jackson may not have the same minute upside as Goran Dragic or Jeff Teague at similar price points, but I’ll take the discount and roll with Reggie.
Avery Bradley has taken at least 13 shots in eight of his last nine games. We don’t think of Bradley as a high-volume scorer, but the opportunities have been there in this offense. With Stanley Johnson ruled out, there’s a decent chance that Bradley could play 35+ minutes against the Pacers in a pace-up game for Detroit. I’ve been down this rocky road before, but Bradley is my favorite shooting guard in the slate tonight. Reggie Bullock will likely draw the start for Johnson, but he’s a low usage player that doesn’t offer much in terms of FP/min (0.50). If you are starved for value, Anthony Tolliver is the preferred play off the bench.
Tobias Harris could also be in line for 35+ minutes tonight, as Bullock is not going to eat up all of Johnson’s minutes by himself. Harris has been steady this season, averaging 33 minutes and 30 fantasy points per game. The Pacers have really struggled to contain bigs this season, ranking 29th against power forwards and 27th against centers. This is a nice segue (no lie, I had to look up how to spell this) into Andre Drummond, who is the top center option on the slate. Drummond is averaging 1.31 FP/min, we’ve seen him play 35+ minutes when he stays out of foul trouble, he’s making free throws, and he gets to face a Pacers’ team that is ranked 21st in rebounding differential. It scares me how much I like the Pistons tonight.
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (3 of 10)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $6,700 | $6,000 | $12,800 | 30.9 | -1.3 | 28.8 | -0.5 | 1.07 | 26.7% | 53.7% | 20 | -1.67 |
| Avery Bradley | $6,300 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 25.7 | 2.2 | 31.5 | 2.5 | 0.82 | 21.6% | 53.2% | 12 | 1.64 |
| Reggie Bullock | $3,000 | $3,300 | $6,400 | 6.0 | -1.9 | 12.0 | 1.1 | 0.50 | 10.5% | 21.8% | 13 | -2.76 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,900 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 29.6 | 0.7 | 33.1 | 1.0 | 0.89 | 22.5% | 58.1% | 29 | 1.69 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,400 | $8,400 | $15,500 | 42.9 | 3.1 | 32.7 | 0.4 | 1.31 | 16.7% | 59.0% | 27 | 2.43 |
| Ish Smith | $3,900 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 17.5 | 1.5 | 19.2 | 1.1 | 0.91 | 25.1% | 52.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 15.1 | -2.9 | 18.7 | -2.6 | 0.81 | 15.2% | 57.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson, Avery Bradley, Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris, Anthony Tolliver, Ish Smith
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.5 |  | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Jonathon Simmons | Evan Fournier | Terrence Ross | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 20 | 22 | 26 | 14 | DvP | 27 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 17 | |
| DRPM | 1.37 | -1.05 | -1.20 | -0.61 | 2.26 | DRPM | 0.01 | -1.34 | -1.35 | 1.66 | -0.91 | |
New York Knicks
Notable Injuries
None
The Knicks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after completing their second double-digit fourth quarter comeback in as many games. They’ll look to keep the streak alive tonight against the Magic in what is shaping up to be a high scoring game. The total opened at 213.5 and it’s already up to 217.5. That’s some serious movement and it’s still early in the day. The Magic have been good defensively this season, but they like to push the pace. The Knicks come into the game with an implied total of 106 points, which is identical to their season average.
It’s official — Jarrett Jack and Frank Ntilikina are in a time split. They are both averaging between 23 and 25 minutes over the last three games. I’m not going to be using either tonight, but I’d play Ntilikina over Jack if I had to choose. He’s at least $400 cheaper on DraftKings and $1,500 cheaper on FantasyDraft. Tim Hardaway draws a nice matchup against a Magic team that is ranked 20th against shooting guards and 22nd against small forwards. He has a boom or bust nature to his game, which makes him a better tournament play than a cash game target.
Kristaps Porzingis has been unreal this season. He has a 31% true usage rate with a 61% true shooting percentage. It’s hard to have that high of usage and stay efficient from the floor, but he’s managed to accomplish that task so far. Aaron Gordon is a physical defender, but he’s not someone that we need to shy away from. He finished last season with a -0.61 DRPM and the Magic are ranked 26th against power forwards this season. It helps that Porzingis only played 29 minutes last night against the Hornets.
Nikola Vucevic is an underrated defender, but the Magic have been a bottom ten rebounding team in each of the last three seasons. This sets up well for both Enes Kanter and Kyle O’Quinn. I’ve been avoiding the Knicks’ centers for the most part this season, but both are viable tournament plays tonight. Kanter is the more intriguing play of the two, as his minutes have slowly been creeping up in the last few games. I suppose it’s worth noting that this is a revenge spot for Mr. O’Quinn.
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (6 of 10)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 18.6 | -0.7 | 25.7 | -0.3 | 0.72 | 17.0% | 38.6% | 23 | 1.37 |
| Courtney Lee | $4,500 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 21.3 | 1.3 | 32.1 | 0.7 | 0.66 | 14.2% | 51.3% | 20 | -1.05 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,000 | $6,100 | $11,400 | 26.5 | 3.1 | 33.5 | 0.3 | 0.79 | 21.4% | 52.3% | 22 | -1.20 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,800 | $9,500 | $16,800 | 46.1 | 8.2 | 33.0 | -0.2 | 1.40 | 31.3% | 60.7% | 26 | -0.61 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,800 | $6,200 | $13,200 | 29.8 | 3.4 | 25.4 | 3.8 | 1.17 | 18.0% | 65.8% | 14 | 2.26 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 20.9 | 1.9 | 16.6 | 0.3 | 1.26 | 16.5% | 62.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 15.7 | 1.4 | 19.5 | 3.1 | 0.80 | 16.5% | 39.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis, Enes Kanter (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway, Enes Kanter (Cash), Kyle O’Quinn (GPP)
Orlando Magic
Notable Injuries
Elfrid Payton (Questionable)
The Magic have struggled with consistency over the years and this season is no different. After getting out to a hot 6-2 start, they’ve lost back-to-back games against the Bulls and Celtics. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency this season. Orlando should be able to control the pace since they are at home, which bodes well for both sides. The Magic have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the second highest of the slate and 2.5 points above their season average.
We already know that Domantas Sabonis is out, so the only other injury that we are waiting on is Elfrid Payton. It sounds like he is going to be a game-time decision, so it’s nice that this game tips off right when lineups lock. If Payton is active, he is an easy fade for me, even in tournaments. Hamstring injuries can be aggravated at any time and there’s no need to take the risk with Reggie Jackson, Jeff Teague, and Goran Dragic all in good spots. If Payton is out, the Magic may opt to start Jonathon Simmons at point guard again. He got into early foul trouble in the last game, but played 15 of the 21 minutes in the second half before the starters were pulled when the game was already in hand. If Payton is out, Simmons becomes an elite play in all formats.
Evan Fournier has been terrific this season. While I’m not sure his 64% true shooting percentage is sustainable, he is a major contributor in this offense. His price has come down to $6,100 on FanDuel and $6,700 on DraftKings after a bad three-game stretch. I’ll be playing Fournier either way, but would give him a small boost if Payton is ruled out. Terrence Ross is always viable in large field tournaments. He has 30 fantasy point upside, but also has one of the lowest floors around.
Aaron Gordon is averaging a team-high 1.19 FP/min this season and his playing time seems to be trending upward. He always seems to get his hand caught in the cookie jar (foul trouble), which is a concern tonight against Kristaps Porzingis. The upside is massive for Gordon, but there is some risk attached to him. He’s best suited in tournaments tonight. Nikola Vucevic has been awfully quiet in his last three games, averaging only 26 fantasy points per game. We are dealing with small samples here, but Vucevic’s splits with Payton on and off the floor this season are crazy. He is averaging 1.53 FP/min with Payton on the floor and 1.04 FP/min with him off the floor.
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 109.0 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (3 of 10)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,800 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 21.8 | -6.5 | 25.0 | -1.0 | 0.87 | 20.8% | 61.7% | 27 | 0.01 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,100 | $6,700 | $13,300 | 33.2 | -6.2 | 33.8 | 1.7 | 0.98 | 20.9% | 63.5% | 6 | -1.34 |
| Terrence Ross | $4,300 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 18.7 | -3.7 | 27.9 | -1.5 | 0.67 | 16.1% | 40.3% | 18 | -1.35 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,800 | $7,200 | $13,500 | 37.1 | -3.0 | 31.2 | 1.5 | 1.19 | 19.7% | 65.2% | 1 | 1.66 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $8,200 | $7,100 | $12,900 | 35.7 | -9.8 | 30.7 | 0.3 | 1.16 | 21.6% | 58.4% | 17 | -0.91 |
| Shelvin Mack | $3,600 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 16.2 | 3.3 | 19.8 | 3.6 | 0.82 | 16.4% | 49.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jonathon Simmons (if Payton is out), Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon (GPP), Nikola Vucevic (if Payton is active)
Secondary Plays – Terrence Ross (GPP), Aaron Gordon (Cash), Nikola Vucevic (if Payton is out)
Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.5 | Implied Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 4.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Kyle Kuzma | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 11 | DvP | 26 | 24 | 4 | 22 | 12 | |
| DRPM | -2.16 | -0.10 | N/A | 0.58 | 2.81 | DRPM | N/A | -1.01 | -2.88 | N/A | 0.37 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
Notable Injuries
Andrew Bogut (Questionable)
The Lakers are looking for their third win in a row, but they have some stiff competition tonight. The Celtics are currently ranked first or second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. To make matters worse, the Lakers are playing on the road in a game where Boston should be able to control the pace of the game. The fact that the Lakers have the second lowest implied total (101.5 points) of the slate isn’t too surprising. They also have the second lowest projected point differential (-5.0) on the board.
Say what you want about Kyrie Irving defense, but point guards have really struggled against Boston this season. The Celtics are ranked second in fantasy points allowed per game to the position. There are a few contributing factors here including a solid team defense, Marcus Smart coming off the bench, and Irving’s increased effort. Lonzo Ball has been quiet in his last few games and can be avoided in a pace-down situation tonight on the road. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is cheap across the industry and may be asked to defend Kyrie Irving. Shooting guard is actually pretty stacked tonight though, so I see KCP as more of a secondary play.
Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma have both played at least 35 minutes in each of the two games since Larry Nance went down with his injury. With Al Horford out tonight, I expect both teams to play small at some point. Don’t be surprised if Ingram and Kuzma both play 35+ minutes once again. This isn’t a great matchup by any means, but the opportunity will be there. Julius Randle continues to crush on a per-minute basis (1.17 FP/min) and he continues to play 16-18 minutes a game, even with Nance out. I’m still willing to play him at sub-10% ownership in hopes that Luke Walton will play him 24 minutes, but I’m not going to bank on it in cash games.
Brook Lopez is averaging over 30 minutes per game in his last three. He’s basically soaking up Nance’s minutes that should be going to Randle. If you can’t tell, I’m a little bitter. I’m a little worried that both teams could opt to play small, but Lopez offers great value at his price point if he’s going to play 30 minutes again. Jordan Clarkson is averaging 1.11 FP/min this season, so the fact that his minutes are trending upward is a huge boost to his fantasy appeal. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last five games.
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -5.0 (9 of 10)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.5 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.9 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.0 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $6,700 | $6,300 | $13,100 | 29.5 | -5.2 | 33.0 | -2.4 | 0.89 | 19.1% | 35.9% | 2 | -2.16 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $4,700 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 24.3 | 0.9 | 32.3 | 1.8 | 0.75 | 14.7% | 53.3% | 1 | -0.10 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,000 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 28.3 | 3.9 | 32.8 | 2.6 | 0.86 | 19.2% | 52.3% | 21 | N/A |
| Kyle Kuzma | $6,300 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 25.6 | 5.9 | 29.1 | 6.0 | 0.88 | 17.2% | 64.0% | 2 | 0.58 |
| Brook Lopez | $6,900 | $6,100 | $12,300 | 29.8 | 11.4 | 25.5 | 4.7 | 1.17 | 23.0% | 57.2% | 11 | 2.81 |
| Julius Randle | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 22.5 | -0.7 | 18.6 | -1.3 | 1.21 | 19.6% | 63.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,100 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 22.7 | 5.9 | 20.5 | 2.0 | 1.11 | 27.2% | 59.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Brook Lopez (DK)
Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez (FD & FDRFT), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Julius Randle (GPP), Jordan Clarkson
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries
Marcus Morris (Active)
Al Horford (Out)
The Celtics are looking to improve on the Eastern Conference’s best record with a win tonight over the Lakers. While Los Angeles has been much better defensively this season, this is still an above-average matchup. The Lakers are ranked third in pace of play and 20th in points allowed per game. Boston is listed as a 9-point favorite with an implied total of 110.5 points. Not only do they have the third highest total on the board, but it is seven points above their season average.
Kyrie Irving has played some great basketball this season and not just from a fantasy perspective. He’s played team basketball and he’s shown a new commitment on the defensive end of the floor. He’s basically shown an ability to shake anyone that opponents put in front of him, so I’m not overly concerned about a matchup against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. There’s a chance that the Lakers won’t be able to put KCP on him anyway, as that would leave Lonzo Ball on Jaylen Brown.
We don’t think of Al Horford as a high usage player, but if we run the CourtIQ tool to see what happens when he’s not on the floor, a number of players see a boost in usage and fantasy production. Marcus Smart, Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum, and Irving all see usage and FP/min bumps without Horford. This could be a great opportunity to stack the Celtics. They still have a lot of bodies splitting minutes, but Smart, Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Morris could all end up playing minutes in the upper 20s or low-30s. I’ll be mixing and matching these players throughout my lineups, but my favorite of the bunch is Morris. He played 24 minutes in the last game, so we could see that come up to 26-28 tonight and he is dirt cheap across the industry.
Aron Baynes and Terry Rozier are both decent punts if you desperately need value. Baynes should see at least 20 minutes tonight, assuming he draws the start for Horford. Rozier is quietly averaging over 22 fantasy points per game and could benefit from a small ball approach. We know the Lakers like to play with two point guards on the floor at times, which could help Rozier find a few extra minutes in tonight’s rotation.
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 7.0 (2 of 10)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.3 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,900 | $8,800 | $16,500 | 40.3 | -1.4 | 33.5 | -0.5 | 1.20 | 28.5% | 55.8% | 26 | N/A |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,500 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 26.2 | -1.2 | 31.5 | -1.8 | 0.83 | 18.6% | 55.9% | 24 | -1.01 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,700 | $6,200 | $11,400 | 28.1 | 1.2 | 31.6 | -1.7 | 0.89 | 15.6% | 64.4% | 4 | -2.88 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 22.6 | 0.0 | 20.4 | 0.0 | 1.11 | 21.9% | 49.8% | 22 | N/A |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 15.9 | -4.3 | 19.0 | -2.1 | 0.84 | 13.5% | 52.0% | 12 | 0.37 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,900 | $5,300 | $12,200 | 27.4 | 1.9 | 29.1 | -0.8 | 0.94 | 20.1% | 43.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 22.2 | -6.5 | 23.8 | 0.0 | 0.93 | 19.7% | 46.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP), Marcus Morris, Jayson Tatum (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash), Jayson Tatum (DK & FDRFT), Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Aron Baynes, Terry Rozier
Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Phoenix Suns | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.5 | Vegas Spread | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.0 | Implied Team Total | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Okaro White | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Mike James | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Marquese Chriss | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 28 | 12 | 25 | 3 | DvP | 14 | 3 | 16 | 23 | 23 | |
| DRPM | N/A | -2.66 | -2.50 | -1.80 | 2.31 | DRPM | -1.61 | -0.06 | -0.16 | -0.02 | 2.52 | |
Miami Heat
Notable Injuries
The Heat were shellacked by the Warriors on Monday night, but draw a much better matchup tonight against the Suns. The fact that this game is being played in Phoenix is great for two reasons. The first is that the home team can generally dictate the pace of play. The second is that the spread is a lot lower than it would be if the game were in Miami. If we put that together, we should see a fast-paced game that stays close throughout. The Heat have an implied total of 110 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate and 8.8 points above their season average.
Goran Dragic started his career in Phoenix, spent some time with the Rockets, went back to the Suns, and was eventually traded to the Heat. If there is one team that qualifies for the revenge narrative, it’s going to be the Suns. In his last four games against his former team, he has scored 39, 42, 43, and 28 fantasy points. It doesn’t hurt that the Suns are ranked dead last against point guards this season. He hasn’t really shown a high upside game this season, but he’s about as consistent as they come for cash games. Tyler Johnson continues to play big minutes off the bench and stands out as a decent value play in all formats.
Dion Waiters is expected to play tonight, after missing the last two games to be there for the birth of his daughter. If you want to play the nappy factor angle, I certainly don’t mind it in an uptempo game against the Suns. Personally, when my son was born, I only slept a few hours for the first few nights. It’s hard to know how Waiters is feeling, but I’m not in love with him in this spot regardless of whether or not the new baby will help or hurt his production. Josh Richardson has been extremely frustrating this season, but the minutes should be in the mid-30s against a team that likes to turn the ball over. We know he’s one of the wing players in basketball when it comes to racking up steals and blocks.
Okaro White may be the starter in name, but James Johnson is the actual starting power forward. He is averaging 29 minutes per game this season and was basically the only Heat player that had a good game against the Warriors the other night. This seems like a perfect matchup for Johnson, although power forward is fairly deep for a five game slate. Hassan Whiteside didn’t look great against the Warriors and was benched for it. I expect him to come out very aggressive tonight. While Tyson Chandler and Alex Len are both excellent defenders, they never stray far from the paint. I will always target Whiteside in games where he is going to be right around the rim on both ends of the floor.
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 101.2 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 8.8 (1 of 10)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 114.8 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.8 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $7,100 | $6,800 | $13,400 | 32.1 | 0.3 | 34.0 | -1.4 | 0.94 | 24.1% | 56.7% | 30 | N/A |
| Dion Waiters | $6,000 | $5,700 | $10,500 | 26.5 | -6.4 | 32.5 | -1.7 | 0.81 | 21.9% | 52.0% | 28 | -2.66 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,700 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 21.8 | 0.7 | 33.3 | 0.1 | 0.66 | 14.4% | 49.2% | 12 | -2.50 |
| Okaro White | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 6.9 | 0.2 | 13.3 | -0.4 | 0.52 | 10.0% | 57.7% | 25 | -1.80 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $9,000 | $7,400 | $13,300 | 36.6 | -5.5 | 26.9 | -3.0 | 1.36 | 20.8% | 56.4% | 3 | 2.31 |
| James Johnson | $6,200 | $6,400 | $13,000 | 32.3 | 4.4 | 28.7 | 1.8 | 1.12 | 20.2% | 60.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,300 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 19.1 | -1.5 | 27.3 | 2.0 | 0.70 | 17.9% | 48.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (Cash), Hassan Whiteside (DK), James Johnson (FD)
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (GPP), Hassan Whiteside (FD & FDRFT), Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, James Johnson (DK & FDRFT)
Phoenix Suns
Notable Injuries
Greg Monroe (Out)
The Suns finally found a trade for Eric Bledsoe and they got more from it than I expected. Typically when we see players demand trades, it hurts their market value because the other teams know that he’s going to be traded eventually. The Suns received Greg Monroe and the Bucks’ first and second round draft picks for next season (I believe). It will be interested to see what the Suns do with Monroe, as they already have too many bodies in the frontcourt. I wouldn’t be surprised if they worked out a buyout and he ultimately joined a contender. Anyway, the Suns have a mediocre matchup tonight against the Heat, who are ranked 12th in points allowed per game. Phoenix has an implied total of 104.5 points, which is the third lowest on the board.
Mike James continues to play well as the starting point guard, but we are starting to see a true split in the point guard minutes. Tyler Ulis has looked good off the bench, so for now, I will project James to play 25-26 minutes and Ulis to play 22-23 minutes. James still offers value in cash games at his price point, while Ulis is still more of a tournament play. Devin Booker is still too cheap on FanDuel ($7,200), but I actually prefer Victor Oladipo over him if you only have the cap space for one or the other. Booker still has massive upside and I don’t mind paying up for both shooting guards. On DraftKings, he’s a little too expensive for my liking.
T.J. Warren has been all over the map in his last four games, scoring 62, 10, 22, and 48 fantasy points. He is the box of chocolates of DFS — we never know which one we’re gonna get. Fire him up in tournaments you’d like, but avoid him in cash games. Personally, I’m going to fade him, as I have some respect for the defense of Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow. The Suns’ frontcourt continues to be a mess. Right when it looked like Dragan Bender was the power forward to play, his minutes were cut in both of the last two games. The Suns will likely need a center on the floor at all times tonight, which bodes well for Tyson Chandler and Alex Len. Of the two, I’d give the edge to Chandler. He is a better defender and his ownership will be lower than it should after his dud against the Nets.
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (7 of 10)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike James | $5,300 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 24.1 | 2.1 | 23.8 | -0.2 | 1.01 | 23.8% | 48.9% | 14 | -1.61 |
| Devin Booker | $7,200 | $8,000 | $13,500 | 33.1 | -7.9 | 32.6 | -1.2 | 1.02 | 25.4% | 57.0% | 3 | -0.06 |
| T.J. Warren | $6,300 | $6,000 | $12,700 | 29.6 | -3.0 | 27.5 | -2.4 | 1.08 | 23.9% | 52.6% | 16 | -0.16 |
| Marquese Chriss | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 17.6 | -5.9 | 19.5 | -2.6 | 0.90 | 13.9% | 50.8% | 23 | -0.02 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 20.4 | 0.6 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 0.80 | 9.9% | 62.0% | 23 | 2.52 |
| Dragan Bender | $3,200 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 13.9 | -3.7 | 20.8 | -2.0 | 0.67 | 10.1% | 47.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Alex Len | $4,700 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 22.8 | 2.7 | 22.1 | -0.1 | 1.03 | 14.4% | 59.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Ulis | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 15.6 | 0.3 | 20.4 | 4.8 | 0.77 | 21.0% | 43.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Mike James (FD), Devin Booker (FD)
Secondary Plays – Mike James (DK & FDRFT), T.J. Warren (GPP), Tyson Chandler, Alex Len (GPP), Tyler Ulis (GPP)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 229.5 |  | Vegas Total | 229.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.3 | Implied Team Total | 120.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Omri Casspi | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 25 | DvP | 28 | 11 | 19 | 4 | 20 | |
| DRPM | 0.24 | -0.91 | 0.05 | 5.08 | 3.61 | DRPM | -0.24 | 1.86 | -2.73 | 2.10 | -1.71 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Notable Injuries
None
We have another game in Oakland that could potentially swing the slate. The spread for the Wolves/Warriors game is set at 11 points, which puts it right on the cusp of being a blowout. I always struggle in these situations, but feel more comfortable about it when it comes to tournaments. Since we are only chasing upside in a tournament setting, it makes sense to take on the risk of a blowout, as the reward is a potentially high scoring game that is full of fantasy goodness. After a slow start defensively, the Warriors have put the clamps down the last few games and are now ranked above the league average in defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. The Wolves have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
If you are looking to play the Wolves tonight, the good news is that Tom Thibodeau has a long track record of playing his starters well into the fourth quarter of blowouts. Even if the Wolves are down 15-20, we could see their starters play a full complement of minutes, especially given the fact that their last game was on Sunday and their next game isn’t until Saturday. A full allotment of minutes in a pace-up game doesn’t sound too bad. Would you look at that, I’ve just talked myself into playing the Wolves with confidence tonight!
Jeff Teague is averaging a fantasy point per minutes this season and has a true usage of 21%. Stephen Curry isn’t as bad of a defender as most people think, but he’s clearly not a lockdown defender like Patrick Beverley or Chris Paul. Teague has the potential to play 35+ minutes in a pace-up game. Jimmy Butler has been quiet this season. He has the second lowest true usage of the five starters and he is only averaging 30 fantasy points per game. Until his production picks up or his price comes down, he can be avoided. Andrew Wiggins has been held under 34 fantasy points in four of his last seven games against the Warriors, but every once in a while, I have a gut feeling about a player that I don’t fight. I’ll be using Wiggins tonight in tournaments.
Dating back to their days in Chicago, Tom Thibodeau and Taj Gibson have always gotten along well. After being relegated to a bench role the last couple of years, Gibson is averaging 30 minutes and 24 fantasy points per game this season. Even though the Warriors play small, Gibson should still see a healthy dose of minutes. He’s a fine value play in all formats. Karl-Anthony Towns keeps getting into foul trouble, but that’s not exactly a bad thing. It hides the fact that he has 35+ minute upside in close games. He’s worth a look in tournaments tonight against the Warriors, who are ranked 25th against centers.
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 109.4 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (6 of 10)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.7 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,900 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 33.0 | 0.4 | 33.0 | 1.6 | 1.00 | 20.8% | 54.2% | 10 | 0.24 |
| Jimmy Butler | $7,700 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 29.8 | -3.9 | 36.0 | -3.6 | 0.83 | 18.6% | 53.6% | 9 | -0.91 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,300 | $6,500 | $13,400 | 29.4 | -1.4 | 35.6 | 0.5 | 0.83 | 22.4% | 53.5% | 24 | 0.05 |
| Taj Gibson | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 24.0 | 7.9 | 29.5 | 1.7 | 0.81 | 11.7% | 57.8% | 28 | 5.08 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,700 | $8,900 | $18,500 | 41.6 | -9.3 | 32.7 | -5.0 | 1.27 | 21.8% | 64.5% | 25 | 3.61 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,300 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 20.2 | -2.1 | 0.87 | 22.3% | 56.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins (Cash), Karl-Anthony Towns (Cash), Taj Gibson
Golden State Warriors
Notable Injuries
None
The Warriors have won four games in a row and they’ve done it in dominating fashion. They now own the league’s best point differential at +10.1 per game. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency. The Warriors have an implied total of 120.3 points, which is the highest on the board and two point above their season average.
Kevin Durant has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which is a massive boost for everyone else in the Warriors’ lineup. He plays so many minutes and is responsible for so much of their offensive production, that Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and whoever fills in as the starter is going to see a boost. Stephen Curry is my favorite play from the Warriors tonight. He should draw the defense of Jeff Teague and we’ve seen the Wolves struggle against point guards all season (ranked 28th). Meanwhile, Curry is averaging 44 fantasy points per game and is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s an elite play in all formats.
With Durant out, Thompson should see a higher usage in the offense, but he’ll also draw a tougher matchup. I was expecting him to face Andrew Wiggins, but now that Durant is out, it makes sense for the Wolves to put Jimmy Butler on him. Even so, he is an interesting tournament play. Everyone will gravitate to Devin Booker and Victor Oladipo at shooting guard. Omri Casspi and Patrick McCaw should both see a few extra minutes tonight, but the value that I’m most interested in is Andre Iguodala. He has a shot to crack 30 minutes tonight against the Wolves.
Draymond Green is averaging 32 fantasy points per game this season. That’s not great at his price point, but I expect the Warriors to run more plays through him tonight. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Green post a triple-double tonight without Durant in the lineup. He’s expensive, but I’m fine firing up all three of the Warriors’ superstars. This is an excellent matchup and they will all see a bigger role in the offense tonight.
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 118.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 120.3 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (4 of 10)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,500 | $9,300 | $19,300 | 44.2 | -4.4 | 32.8 | -1.0 | 1.35 | 27.5% | 65.9% | 28 | -0.24 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,900 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 31.9 | -2.8 | 33.3 | -2.5 | 0.96 | 20.6% | 62.4% | 11 | 1.86 |
| Omri Casspi | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 9.9 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 1.21 | 14.7% | 75.6% | 19 | -2.73 |
| Draymond Green | $8,200 | $7,500 | $14,500 | 32.4 | 3.3 | 29.8 | -2.0 | 1.09 | 15.5% | 63.7% | 4 | 2.10 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,200 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 12.8 | 1.5 | 14.1 | -1.4 | 0.90 | 12.2% | 54.0% | 20 | -1.71 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,100 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 17.1 | 1.5 | 25.7 | -2.0 | 0.67 | 10.3% | 45.7% | N/A | N/A |