NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, October 28 - Page Three
L.A. Clippers at Sacramento – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -5.5, 210.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Pierce-Griffin-Jordan
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Rondo-McLemore-Gay-Cousins-Koufos
| L.A. Clippers | |||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 | |||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | ||||
| Team Proj. | 108.0 | ||||
| Team Pace | 96.96 | ||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Paul Pierce | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 14 | 21 | 25 |
| Sacramento | |||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 | |||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | ||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | ||||
| Team Pace | 97.92 | ||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | DeMarcus Cousins | Kosta Koufos |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 18 | 29 | 18 | 14 |
L.A. Clippers
Right when it appeared that the Clippers were going to advance to the Western Conference finals, they fall apart and ended up losing to the Rockets in seven games. The Clippers have all of the pieces in place to be a championship-caliber team, but they just can’t seem to get it done when it matters. They will return four of their five starters for this season. Matt Barnes is now in Memphis, but they arguably improved the position by adding Wesley Johnson and Paul Pierce.
Sacramento Kings Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (27 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (27 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 3.0 (3 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 206.7 (28 of 32)
The Clippers open their season against the Kings, who were one of the worst defenses in the NBA last season. The Kings did rebound the ball well, but they were ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The outlook for this season doesn’t look a whole lot better, which makes the Kings one of the best teams to target players against.
Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are both borderline elite plays tonight at their respective positions. Paul has a major advantage over Rajon “I don’t play defense anymore” Rondo and Griffin should have a nice advantage as well. It sounds like the Kings will start Kosta Koufos next to DeMarcus Cousins, so Griffin should have a nice quickness advantage to start the game. DeAndre Jordan is worth a look in tournaments. He always has that incredibly high ceiling that we are looking for in GPPs. I should also mention J.J. Redick, as the Kings were by far the worst team at defending shooting guards last season.
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin
FD: $9,900 — DK: $9,300
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 28.1
FD FP/Min: 1.13 — DK FP/Min: 1.25
Chris Paul
FD: $9,800 — DK: $9,400
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 23.4
FD FP/Min: 1.19 — DK FP/Min: 1.28
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan
FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 13.5
FD FP/Min: 1.05 — DK FP/Min: 1.12
J.J. Redick
FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 20.7
FD FP/Min: 0.70 — DK FP/Min: 0.76
Sacramento
The Kings picked up Rajon Rondo in the offseason and their future starting lineup looks pretty solid: Rondo, Ben McLemore, Rudy Gay, Willie Cauley-Stein, and DeMarcus Cousins. Talent has never been the issue in Sacramento though, so we will see if coach George Karl can get these guys to play with one another. Rondo, Gay, and Cousins have all had issues with being team players, so Karl will certainly have his hands full.
Los Angeles Clippers Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (16 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (15 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 194.6 (15 of 32)
The Kings open up their season as 5.5-point underdogs against the Clippers in a game that features a total of 210 points. The Clippers had an average defense by most metrics last season, as they were ranked 15th or 16th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed.
There is really only one fantasy option on my radar from the Kings tonight. Rudy Gay status is uncertain after missing practice to be there for the birth of his child, Rajon Rondo is a complete wildcard at this point, and Ben McLemore is the ultimate letdown player in daily fantasy basketball. That leaves us with DeMarcus Cousins, who is the most talented center in the NBA. The only person that can stop Cousins is himself. When he keeps his temper in check, he can’t be defended. He is the premier play at center tonight, but I have him ranked behind Anthony Davis and James Harden as the top overall play.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins
FD: $10,900 — DK: $10,300
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 33.9
FD FP/Min: 1.38 — DK FP/Min: 1.50
Secondary Plays
Omri Casspi – If Rudy Gay is out
FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 21.0 — Usage: 18.6
FD FP/Min: 0.75 — DK FP/Min: 0.80
Dallas at Phoenix – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -5, 202.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Williams-Matthews-Anderson-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Knight-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Chandler
| Dallas | |||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 | |||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | ||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | ||||
| Team Pace | 97.43 | ||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Wesley Matthews | Justin Anderson | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 17 |
| Phoenix | |||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 | |||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | ||||
| Team Proj. | 103.8 | ||||
| Team Pace | 98.68 | ||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Tyson Chandler |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 17 | 25 | 17 | 20 |
Dallas
The Mavericks made a quick exit from the playoffs last season, as the Rockets beat them in five games in the first round. It’s tough to see them being a threat in the Western Conference, especially after losing Tyson Chandler, who was their defensive anchor. They also lost Monta Ellis, who was really a nice fit in this offense. The Mavericks did add Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, and Zaza Pachulia in the offseason, but they have some big shoes to fill.
Phoenix Suns Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (26 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (17 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (25 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 198.6 (21 of 32)
The Mavericks open their season against the Suns, who were one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA last season. This is a favorable matchup, as Phoenix was ranked 26th in points allowed per game, 17th in defensive efficiency, 25th in rebounding differential, and 21st in fantasy points allowed per game. The Mavericks have an implied team total of 98.75 points, which is just below the average of the teams in play tonight.
Injuries is the name of the game in Dallas right now. Chandler Parsons is going to miss tonight’s game with a knee injury and Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews are both on a minute restriction. When players are on minute restrictions, that’s a big red flag to stay away for fantasy purposes. Dirk Nowitzki is going to have to shoulder the load offensively. He makes a decent play here, but he doesn’t stand out as an elite power forward. J.J. Barea is an intriguing tournament play, as he should see a nice boost thanks to all of these injuries.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki
FD: $6,200 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 25.1
FD FP/Min: 0.93 — DK FP/Min: 1.01
Jose Juan Barea
FD: $4,500 — DK: $3,400
Min/Game: 18.0 — Usage: 21.5
FD FP/Min: 0.82 — DK FP/Min: 0.92
Phoenix
The Suns narrowly missed the playoffs last season. They will look to get back to the promised land this season. While they did lose Marcus Morris to the Pistons, they managed to pry Tyson Chandler away from Dallas, which should really help bolster this defense. Teams always seem to get better defensively with Chandler as their anchor.
Dallas Mavericks Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (25 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (18 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (30 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 199.1 (22 of 32)
The Suns draw a favorable matchup against the Mavericks, who were ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game last season. The Suns have an implied team total of 103.75 points, which is the seventh highest on the schedule tonight.
There really aren’t any positions that we need to avoid against the Mavericks. They were below average against every position last season in terms of fantasy points allowed. Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight are both interesting plays in the backcourt, although both players will benefit when the other one is hurt. They are both ball-dominant guards that eat into each other’s production. Markieff Morris is a nice contrarian play at power forward. He has struggled with consistency, but he certainly has the upside that we are looking for in tournaments.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe
FD: $7,300 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 23.8
FD FP/Min: 0.95 — DK FP/Min: 1.03
Brandon Knight
FD: $6,500 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 25.4
FD FP/Min: 0.93 — DK FP/Min: 1.00
Markieff Morris
FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 23.4
FD FP/Min: 0.86 — DK FP/Min: 0.92
New Orleans at Portland – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -2.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Perkins
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Davis-Leonard
| New Orleans | |||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 | |||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | ||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | ||||
| Team Pace | 93.70 | ||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Kendrick Perkins |
| Opp. Season | |||||
| Portland | |||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 | |||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | ||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | ||||
| Team Pace | 96.46 | ||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | C.J. McCollum | Pat Connaughton | Al-Farouq Aminu | Ed Davis | Meyers Leonard |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 18 |
New Orleans
As mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down, the Pelicans start their season off at less than full strength. They did not look great against the Warriors, but not many teams do, especially when they have to face them on their own home floor. Don’t be too discouraged though, the Pelicans should be in the playoff mix this season and we may have witnessed Anthony Davis worst shooting performance this year. It can only go up from here.
Portland Trail Blazers Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (11 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (10 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 1.3 (10 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 194.4 (13 of 32)
The Blazers are one of the few teams where we can just throw their statistics from a season ago out the window. The Blazers lost four of their five starters, including some very good defensive players. If Portland plays at an average pace this season, they will not be nearly as good defensively.
Everyone had Anthony Davis last night and he finished the game 4-for-20 from the field. That will not happen again tonight. The good news is that a lot of people that targeted him last night will be quick to jump off the bandwagon. Don’t be one of those fools. As long as he stays healthy, Davis will be the leading fantasy point scorer in the NBA this season. He is dominant on both ends of the floor and he should wipe the floor with Meyers Leonard and Mason Plumlee. Don’t be the guy that is kicking himself for being on the wrong side of Davis on the first two nights of the season. Eric Gordon is also an elite play, he picked up the slack offensively last night and should continue to benefit with Tyreke Evans out. Ish Smith is also in the mix tonight, but his minutes will likely go down a bit with Jrue Holiday expected to play.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis
FD: $11,200 — DK: $10,400
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 27.6
FD FP/Min: 1.31 — DK FP/Min: 1.39
Eric Gordon
FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 19.8
FD FP/Min: 0.68 — DK FP/Min: 0.75
Secondary Plays
Ryan Anderson
FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 23.0
FD FP/Min: 0.77 — DK FP/Min: 0.83
Ish Smith
FD: N/A — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 15.0 — Usage: 24.3
FD FP/Min: N/A — DK FP/Min: 0.95
Portland
The Blazers had the biggest overhaul to their starting lineup in the offseason. Damian Lillard is the only remaining starter, as Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Robin Lopez all found new homes. They are tentatively expected to start C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, and Mason Plumlee alongside Lillard. Basically, this is going to be the Lillard and McCollum show, which should be great for fantasy purposes.
New Orleans Pelicans Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (11 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (22 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 2.0 (7 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 194.0 (11 of 32)
The Blazers draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who were ranked 11th in points allowed and 22nd in defensive efficiency last season. This is expected to be a high-scoring game, as the total is set at 206 points with the Blazers being two-point favorites.
With one of the highest team totals on the board, I want to have as much exposure to Damian Lillard as possible tonight. The Blazers lost three of the top options offensively and with his surrounding cast, he is going to have to take over. Lillard’s price is only going to go up from here, so you should try to get in at the ground floor. C.J. McCollum is also an elite play tonight. He is not a household name yet, but he is a talented young player that should really benefit from a lack of weapons on the Blazers. I don’t mind pairing Lillard with McCollum, as they are both very strong plays tonight.
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard
FD: $9,000 — DK: $8,900
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 26.7
FD FP/Min: 1.00 — DK FP/Min: 1.07
C.J. McCollum
FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 16.0 — Usage: 20.5
FD FP/Min: 0.69 — DK FP/Min: 0.81
Secondary Plays
Al-Farouq Aminu
FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 19.0 — Usage: 15.1
FD FP/Min: 0.79 — DK FP/Min: 0.89
Mason Plumlee
FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 21.0 — Usage: 19.5
FD FP/Min: 0.92 — DK FP/Min: 0.93
Minnesota at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Lakers -3.5, 202 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Towns
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Bryant-World Peace-Randle-Hibbert
| Minnesota | |||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 | |||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | ||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | ||||
| Team Pace | 96.96 | ||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Kevin Garnett | Karl-Anthony Towns |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 26 | 23 | 14 | 22 |
| L.A. Lakers | |||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 | |||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | ||||
| Team Proj. | 102.8 | ||||
| Team Pace | 96.33 | ||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Kobe Bryant | Metta World Peace | Julius Randle | Roy Hibbert |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 28 |
Minnesota
The Wolves are going to be a fun team to watch for years to come with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. They are only going to get better the longer that they play together and if Ricky Rubio can stay healthy, this should be a high-scoring offense.
Los Angeles Lakers Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (29 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (29 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 206.4 (27 of 32)
The Wolves draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight, as the Lakers were ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game last season. Both of these teams play at a very fast pace and while they aren’t exactly efficient offenses, there should be plenty of fantasy production to go around in this one.
While I love the Wolves as a whole tonight, there aren’t any individual plays that stand out as must starts. It has more to do with the plethora of options than it does their matchup, as there are 14 games on the schedule tonight. Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns are all worth a look tonight, but they are secondary plays at their respective positions.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins
FD: $7,600 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 22.6
FD FP/Min: 0.74 — DK FP/Min: 0.78
Ricky Rubio
FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 19.6
FD FP/Min: 0.97 — DK FP/Min: 1.05
Karl-Anthony Towns
FD: $6,100 — DK: $6,200
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are looking to rebuild, but they are having a hard time doing that with all of the money that they are giving to Kobe Bryant. It also doesn’t help that Bryant is not the type of player that is ready to admit that their team is rebuilding. The Lakers did sign Roy Hibbert in the offseason, but the biggest changes are from their young players. D’Angelo Russell is a talented rookie that is looking to make a name for himself and Julius Randle (who was injured early last season) has looked great in the preseason.
Minnesota Timberwolves Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (30 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (30 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 207.2 (30 of 32)
As mentioned above, there should be plenty of points to go around in this game. The Lakers were one of the worst defensive teams last season and the Wolves were as well. Minnesota was ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Lakers have a high implied team total of 102.75 points in what is expected to be a shootout.
Once again, this is less about the Lakers as it is about the wealth of options at each position. It will be interesting to see how well Kobe Bryant fits in with these young players and if he is going to be able to take a backseat at times. While I won’t have a ton of exposure to the Lakers tonight, there is one play that does stand out here. Julius Randle has been terrific in the preseason and he is priced very affordably on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Elite Plays
Julius Randle
FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 14.0 — Usage: 17.0
FD FP/Min: 0.07 — DK FP/Min: 0.11
Secondary Plays
Jordan Clarkson
FD: $6,800 — DK: $5,300
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 23.4
FD FP/Min: 0.86 — DK FP/Min: 0.92
D’Angelo Russell
FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,700